Market Performance - Treasury futures closed lower across the board, with the 30-year main contract down 0.36%, the 10-year main contract down 0.16%, the 5-year main contract down 0.14%, and the 2-year main contract down 0.04% [1] - Major interbank bond yields rose, with the 30-year government bond yield increasing by 1.3 basis points to 1.8730%, the 10-year policy bank bond yield rising by 1.4 basis points to 1.7380%, the 10-year government bond yield up by 1.35 basis points to 1.6585%, and the 2-year government bond yield increasing by 1.5 basis points to 1.3900% [1] Funding Conditions - The central bank announced a 900 billion yuan 7-day reverse repurchase operation at a fixed rate of 1.40%, with a bid amount of 900 billion yuan and a successful bid amount of 900 billion yuan [2] - On the same day, 572 billion yuan of reverse repos matured, resulting in a net injection of 328 billion yuan [2] - Overnight pledged repo rates slightly increased to around 1.32%, while the 7-day pledged repo rate rose nearly 2 basis points to 1.49% [2] - The latest transaction for one-year interbank certificates of deposit from major banks was around 1.62%, showing a slight increase from the previous day [2] Policy Developments - The National Development and Reform Commission emphasized the goal of achieving new urbanization by 2035, focusing on high-quality advancement through four major actions [3] - The commission plans to leverage "two heavy" and "two new" funding uses to increase investment in key areas of new urbanization [3] - Incremental policy expectations may have contributed to a stronger stock market, although the intensity, scale, and impact of the policies need further observation [3] Operational Recommendations - June CPI data slightly exceeded expectations, while PPI was weaker than expected, indicating unclear directional trends [4] - External demand may see marginal recovery, potentially boosting manufacturing sentiment, but employment and corporate expectation indicators are showing a downward trend, suggesting the need for stronger internal economic momentum [4] - The funding environment is expected to remain loose in early to mid-July, which is favorable for the bond market, although short-term funding rates are gradually bottoming out, constraining the yield curve [4] - In the absence of driving forces in the bond market, the equity market's strong performance may suppress the bond market, but fundamental and funding support for the bond market remains intact [4] - A wait-and-see approach is recommended for single strategies, with potential opportunities for allocation after stabilization, while continuing to focus on steepening strategies [4]

-、宏观消息汇总 1。人社部、财政部印发《关于2025年调整退休人员基本养老金 的通知》，退休人员基本养老金上调2% 万和财富早班车 2025年7月11日 ● 国内金融市场 ● 我们不是资讯的搬运工 而是有态度的发现者 2. 多家硅片企业上调了硅片报价，不同尺寸的硅片价格涨幅在 8%—11.7%，相关个股：TCL中环(002129)、降基绿能(601012)等 3. 上半年工程机械行业复苏，业内预计全年内需保持两位数以 上增速，相关个股：徐工机械(000429)、柳工(000528)等 三、上市公司聚焦 1 三美股份(603379):预计上半年净利润同比增长147%-172%, 氟制冷剂产品均价同比大幅上涨 2 TCL科技(000100)：2025年上半年公司净利润18亿元-20亿元, 同比增长81%-101%,半导体显示业务净利润同比增长超70% 3. 内蒙华电(600863)：拟向北方公司购买其持有的正蓝旗风电 70%股权与北方多伦75.51%的股权 2 商务部:将会同有关部门落实好家政兴农相关政策措施,制 定修订一批家政领域标准 3。自然资源部：2025年上半年,我国新发现矿产地38处,同比 增长31% ...

交易咨询资格号： 证监许可[2012]112 晨会纪要 2025 年 7 月 11 日 联系人：王竣冬 期货从业资格：F3024685 交易咨询从业证书号：Z0013759 研究咨询电话： 0531-81678626 客服电话： 400-618-6767 公司网址： www.ztqh.com [Table_QuotePic] 中泰微投研小程序 | 2025/7/11 | | 基于基本面研判 | | | | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | | 趋势空头 | 農荡偏空 | 農药 | 農荡偏多 | 趋势多头 | | | 原油 | 沪深300股指期货 | 多晶硅 | | | | 瓶片 | 沥青 | 橡胶 | | | | PTA | 中证1000指数期货 | 橡胶 | | | | 短纤 | 中证500股指期货 | 玻璃 | | | | 乙二醇 | 上证50股指期货 | 焦炭 | | | | 锌 | 工业硅 | 焦煤 | | | | 对二甲苯 | 燃油 | | | | | 液化石油气 | 十债 | | | | | 三十债 | 白糖 | | | | | 硅铁 | 二债 | | | | | 幸運 ...

稳地产信号释放之际，汇丰、大摩集体看好中国地产的反弹之势。 7月10日周四，发改委的一则重磅表态，再度展现了稳地产的决心。据人民财讯当日报道，国家发改委 城市和小城镇改革发展中心近日表示，允许人口流入城市利用超长期特别国债、地方政府专项债等资 金，加大闲置存量土地回收和存量商品房收购力度，持续扩大农业转移人口保障性住房供给。 当天，AH地产股迎来强劲反弹，集体掀起涨停潮。华尔街见闻文章写道，沪指站稳3500点，A股渝开 发、南山控股等多股涨停；港股内房股涨势更为迅猛，大方广瑞德、远洋集团等涨30%，龙光集团、弘 阳地产、绿地香港等涨20%。 不过，该行认为基本面影响将高度依赖政策执行，特别是资金规模、开发商选择标准、城市间资金分配 以及回购定价等关键细节。 政策信号正在在释放 近日，国家发展改革委城市和小城镇改革发展中心表示，锚定到2035年基本实现新型城镇化目标，要顺 应规律、把握趋势，紧抓城镇化动力仍然较强的关键时期，高质量推进新型城镇化四大行动，为中国式 现代化提供有力支撑。其中，要以"两重""两新"资金使用为抓手，加大新型城镇化重点领域投入。 一是加大"两重"建设力度，支持符合条件的新一轮农业转移人口 ...

分析师：张刚 登记编码：S0730511010001 zhanggang@ccnew.com 021-50586990 晨会聚焦 资料来源：聚源，中原证券研究所 -8% -2% 3% 9% 15% 21% 26% 32% 2024.07 2024.11 2025.03 2025.07 上证指数 深证成指 | 国内市场表现 | | | | | --- | --- | --- | --- | | 指数名称 | | 昨日收盘价 | 涨跌幅(%) | | 上证指数 | | 3,509.68 | 0.48 | | 深证成指 | | 10,631.13 | 0.47 | | 创业板指 | | 2,022.77 | -0.47 | | 沪深 | 300 | 4,010.02 | 0.47 | | 上证 | 50 | 2,443.97 | -0.52 | | 科创 | 50 | 891.46 | 0.14 | | 创业板 | 50 | 1,924.26 | -0.67 | | 中证 | 100 | 3,793.67 | 0.57 | | 中证 | 500 | 5,983.05 | 0.50 | | 中证 | 1000 | 6 ...

Market Overview - The A-share market is experiencing a rebound, with major indices showing upward trends, particularly in the real estate sector, which has seen significant gains [4][9] - As of July 10, 2025, the Shanghai Composite Index closed at 3509.68, up 0.48%, while the Shenzhen Component Index rose by 0.47% to 10631.13 [2][3] Economic Indicators - The People's Bank of China conducted a 900 billion yuan reverse repurchase operation, indicating a proactive monetary policy stance [16][17] - In the first half of 2025, residential land transfer fees in 300 cities increased by 27.5% year-on-year, reflecting a robust real estate market despite a 5.5% decline in transaction area [19] - The express delivery business volume in China surpassed 1 trillion pieces by July 9, 2025, marking a significant milestone [20] - The automotive market in China saw production and sales exceeding 15 million units in the first half of 2025, with new energy vehicles accounting for 44.3% of total new car sales [21] Industry Dynamics - The film industry in China generated a total box office of 29.231 billion yuan in the first half of 2025, a 22.9% increase year-on-year, nearing pre-pandemic levels [28] - The offshore wind power sector is advancing, with the first batch of units from the Jiangsu Dafeng 800MW offshore wind project successfully connected to the grid [31] - The price of photovoltaic silicon wafers has stabilized, although transaction volumes remain low, indicating a cautious market outlook [34] Company Insights - WuXi AppTec (603259.SH) is projected to achieve a revenue of 20.799 billion yuan in the first half of 2025, representing a year-on-year growth of approximately 20.64% [36] - Muyuan Foods (002714.SZ) expects a net profit attributable to shareholders of 10.2 to 10.7 billion yuan in the first half of 2025, reflecting a staggering year-on-year increase of over 10 times [37] - Chenguang Biotech (300138.SZ) anticipates a net profit growth of 102% to 132% year-on-year for the first half of 2025, driven by improved market conditions for its core products [40] Regional Economic Developments - Changlan Technology (002879.SZ) received a bid notification for a project worth 97.165 million yuan, indicating positive growth prospects for the company [41] - Hunan Province is accelerating the application of green hydrogen in industrial sectors, showcasing advancements in low-carbon technologies [43][44]

Group 1 - The Ministry of Human Resources and Social Security and the Ministry of Finance announced an increase in basic pension levels for retirees starting January 1, 2025, with an overall adjustment level of 2% based on the average monthly basic pension of retirees in 2024 [2] - The Chinese government is taking measures to combat the smuggling of strategic minerals such as antimony and gallium, with a special action launched in May to prevent illegal outflows [2] - A new agreement between the Chinese and Malaysian governments will allow visa-free travel for holders of ordinary passports for stays of up to 30 days, effective July 17, 2025 [3] Group 2 - The China Automobile Industry Association reported that the automotive industry saw significant growth in the first half of the year, with production and sales exceeding 15 million units, and new energy vehicle sales reaching 6.968 million units, a year-on-year increase of 41.4% [4] - The Beijing Municipal Government aims for an average annual growth of around 5% in total market consumption by 2030, with plans to create 2-3 consumption landmarks worth over 100 billion [4] - U.S. stock indices saw collective gains, with the S&P 500 and Nasdaq reaching new highs, indicating a positive market sentiment [4] Group 3 - Companies such as Tianbao Infrastructure reported a significant net profit increase of 1581.8% to 2329.27% year-on-year for the first half of the year [6] - East Sunshine projected a net profit increase of 157.48% to 192.81% for the first half of the year [7] - Southwest Securities noted that the profitability of thermal power companies is improving due to declining fuel costs, with a recovery of 11% in stock prices since late January [8] Group 4 - Zhongyuan Securities highlighted that the ongoing anti-involution policies in the chemical industry may lead to a better industry structure, recommending attention to the pesticide, organic silicon, and polyester filament sectors [9]

Domestic News - The Ministry of Human Resources and Social Security and the Ministry of Finance announced that starting from January 1, 2025, the basic pension for approximately 150 million retirees will be increased by 2% based on the average monthly pension of retirees in 2024 [3] - The National Development and Reform Commission stated that by 2035, China aims to achieve new urbanization goals, focusing on high-quality development and investment in key areas [3] - The China Automobile Industry Association reported that in the first half of 2025, China's automobile production and sales both exceeded 15 million units, with new energy vehicles accounting for 44.3% of total new car sales [4] - WuXi AppTec announced an estimated revenue of approximately 20.799 billion yuan for the first half of 2025, representing a year-on-year growth of about 20.64% [4] - iFlytek expects a loss of 200 million to 280 million yuan in the first half of 2025, although it has seen a 15% to 20% increase in revenue compared to the previous year [4] Market Overview - The Shanghai Composite Index closed at 3509.68, up 0.48% [7] - The Shenzhen Component Index rose to 10631.13, an increase of 0.47% [7] - The Hang Seng Index increased by 0.57%, closing at 24028.37 [7] - WTI crude oil prices decreased by 2%, settling at $65.59 [7] - COMEX gold prices rose by 0.32%, reaching $3333 [7]

Group 1: Industry Overview - The sales of various excavators reached 18,804 units in June 2025, representing a year-on-year increase of 13.3%, with domestic sales of 8,136 units (up 6.2%) and exports of 10,668 units (up 19.3%) [1] - In the first half of 2025, a total of 120,520 excavators were sold, marking a year-on-year growth of 16.8%, with domestic sales of 65,637 units (up 22.9%) and exports of 54,883 units (up 10.2%) [1] - The domestic excavator sales in June showed a year-on-year growth of 6.2%, rebounding by 7.7 percentage points compared to previous values, driven by accelerated second-hand exports and a low base from the previous year [1] Group 2: Market Dynamics - The construction machinery industry is expected to maintain stable growth in excavator sales, with domestic earth-moving equipment projected to achieve double-digit growth for the year [2] - The demand for excavators is shifting towards recovery, particularly in the mining sector and major water conservancy projects, while the demand for small excavators is slowing down [2] - The government plans to issue long-term special bonds and increase local government special bonds to stimulate infrastructure investment, which is expected to boost downstream equipment demand [5][6] Group 3: Company Performance - Zoomlion (000157) anticipates that domestic sales will enter a growth trajectory, expanding its business from domestic markets to global markets across engineering, agricultural, and mining machinery [3] - Sany International (00631) reported a revenue of 5.876 billion yuan in Q1 2025, a year-on-year increase of 14.6%, with net profit rising by 23.2% [7] - The company is focusing on expanding its overseas business, particularly in emerging regions, while also enhancing its product offerings in earth-moving, agricultural, and mining machinery [7]

Group 1: Open Market Operations - The central bank conducted a 900 billion yuan 7-day reverse repurchase operation on July 10, with a fixed interest rate of 1.40%, resulting in a net injection of 328 billion yuan for the day after accounting for 572 billion yuan in reverse repos maturing [2][3] Group 2: Liquidity Conditions - Liquidity has slightly contracted, with the overnight pledged repo rate rising to 1.32% and the 7-day pledged repo rate increasing by nearly 2 basis points to 1.49% [4] Group 3: Interbank Certificates of Deposit - The latest transaction for one-year interbank certificates of deposit is around 1.62%, showing a slight increase from the previous day [7] Group 4: Bond Market Trends - Major interbank bond yields have generally risen, indicating a shift in market sentiment [9] - Government bond futures closed collectively lower, with the 30-year main contract down 0.36%, the 10-year down 0.16%, the 5-year down 0.14%, and the 2-year down 0.04% [13] Group 5: Urban Investment Bonds - Recent trends in urban investment bonds (AAA) show varying yield spreads across different maturities, reflecting market dynamics [11][12] Group 6: Key News and Developments - The National Development and Reform Commission aims to achieve new urbanization goals by 2035, focusing on high-quality development and increased investment in key areas [14] - The Ministry of Commerce responded to U.S. trade concerns, emphasizing that the issue of overcapacity lies with the EU due to insufficient R&D investment [14] - The Bank of Japan maintained its economic assessment across nine regions, noting limited impact from U.S. tariffs on exports and output [15] - The Bank of Korea kept its key interest rate at 2.50%, aligning with market expectations, while expressing concerns over fiscal imbalances [15] Group 7: Bond Market Events - Oceanwide Group is formulating a domestic credit bond resolution plan, while Longfor Group has successfully passed all 21 domestic bond restructuring proposals [16] - Demand for Japan's 20-year government bond auction fell below the 12-month average [16] - A series of negative events have been reported for various bond issuers, including downgrades in credit ratings for multiple companies [16]