一个衡量每日7.5万亿美元规模外汇市场需求的关键指标正引起华尔街关注，该指标显示即使在通常推动投资者涌向美元 的市场动荡时期，美元需求也在减弱。 包括摩根士丹利和高盛在内的多家银行分析师都注意到所谓"交叉货币基差互换"的近期变化——这项指标反映在现金市 场借贷成本之外，将一种货币兑换成另一种货币的额外成本。当对某种货币的需求增加时，这种额外成本或溢价就会上 升；反之当需求疲软时则会下降甚至转为负值。 这些分析师指出，4月特朗普"解放日"关税公告引发市场动荡时，基差互换衡量的美元偏好仅出现相对短暂且温和的上 升。与此同时，对欧元和日元等其他货币的需求却在增长。 这与过去二十年间的避险热潮形成鲜明对比——例如疫情初期，美元曾在全球融资市场持续获得溢价。 美元融资成本持续走低 美元主导地位面临挑战 随着时间的推移，这种对美元流动性偏好的减弱（特别是相对于欧元），最终可能使借入欧元的成本高于美元——在美 元全球金融主导地位日益受到质疑之际，这对美元构成挑战。 摩根士丹利团队在6月报告中写道："近期交叉货币基差变动表明，投资者对美元计价资产的兴趣减弱，而对欧元和日元 计价资产的兴趣增强。"分析师称，美国关税的影响似乎正 ...

特朗普政府关税政策的不确定性成为当前市场核心变量。美联储研究显示，关税上调可能通过输入型通 胀渠道推高物价水平，其持续性将直接影响货币政策路径。尽管鲍威尔强调政策独立性，但贸易摩擦引 发的通胀波动已实质性增加决策复杂性。这种背景下，黄金的通胀对冲属性面临双重考验：短期需防范 关税冲击带来的物价脉冲，长期则需观察经济数据是否支撑宽松周期重启。 美联储主席鲍威尔国会听证发言持续发酵，其关于"关税政策或推高夏季通胀"的警告，令市场对7月降 息的预期概率骤降。联邦基金期货市场定价显示，投资者已将首次降息时点推迟至9月，并下调年内降 息幅度预期至50个基点。这种政策预期修正直接削弱了黄金的持有成本优势——作为非生息资产，金价 与实际利率呈现显著负相关，而鲍威尔"不急于降息"的表态使多头动能遭受压制。 周三（6.25）亚市盘中，纸黄金价格延续震荡上行态势，现报767.96元/克，日内涨幅0.53%。盘中波动 区间收窄至763.29-768.58元/克，显示多空双方在关键技术位展开激烈争夺。 技术面呈现典型区间震荡格局：793-803元/克阻力带压制明显，该区域汇集了前期高点及黄金分割关键 位；下方739-749元/克支撑 ...

Group 1 - Goldman Sachs' global head of repurchase trading, Richard Chambers, indicates that the dollar may continue its worst annual start on record as foreign investors increase their foreign exchange hedging efforts [1] - The Bloomberg Dollar Index has dropped over 8% this year, marking the worst annual start on record, influenced by unpredictable policies from former President Trump that have shaken investor confidence [1] - Foreign investors' holdings of U.S. securities have doubled to $31 trillion over the past decade, including stocks, government bonds, and corporate bonds [1] Group 2 - There are currently no signs of a large-scale withdrawal of foreign investors from the U.S. bond market, but Chambers predicts a gradual weakening of foreign demand [3] - European countries are increasing fiscal borrowing and spending, enhancing the euro's depth as an alternative reserve currency, leading European investors to prefer local markets [3] - Chambers notes that investors are likely to favor nationalism and localized investments over shifting to the dollar, resulting in the U.S. relying more on domestic buyers to absorb growing debt [3] Group 3 - Bridgewater's interest rate strategy head, Alex Schiller, highlights the challenge of finding potential buyers for the expanding debt, which is a global issue [3] - Schiller points out that U.S. 10-year Treasury bonds have performed the best among major bond markets this year [3] - The structural adjustments in Japan and Europe are more significant than in the U.S. as central banks reverse their policies to combat inflation [3] - Gold has emerged as the biggest beneficiary as governments worldwide compete to expand their debt [3]

美联储威廉姆斯：在不确定性上升的情况下，预计会有更多的美元对冲行为。 ...

2025.06. 24 本文字数：2647，阅读时长大约4分钟 作者 | 第一财经 冯迪凡 作为分别拥有全球第二大和第三大央行黄金储备的国家，德国和意大利都有点想要自己的黄金"回 家"了。 日前，特朗普政府对美联储的不断批评叠加加剧的地缘政治风险，重新点燃了德国和意大利关于将黄 金运回其国内的公众辩论。 与此同时，根据世界黄金协会的一项最新调查，95%的受访者预计未来12个月全球央行黄金储备将 增加，这是自2018年该年度调查开始以来的最高水平。 同时，地缘政治紧张局势对黄金市场的影响显现：部分央行计划将更多黄金储备存放在国内，而非伦 敦和纽约——这两个城市是全球最大的黄金储备中心。 德国柏林自由大学现代中国学院客座研究员、对外经济贸易大学区域国别研究院中德经贸研究中心主 任史世伟在接受第一财经记者采访时表示，德国本轮的国内诉求缘于对美国作为国家财富保管人的不 信任，同时也有地缘政治的考量。 "美国国家债务太高，且德国方面害怕美国总统特朗普会撤掉美联储主席鲍威尔，削弱美联储独立 性，让他的人做主席。"史世伟解释道，同时美国通货膨胀加剧可能会威胁上述国家黄金储备的安 全。 来源：世界黄金协会调查报告 美国金库不 ...

美国石油生产商紧急布局对冲， 恰逢其时 【oilprice网6月23日报道】 在4月初至6月初的三个月里，油价一直徘徊在60美元出头的水平。当时，美国的关税冲击以及石油输出国组织及其合 作伙伴（OPEC+）的增产行动令市场情绪承压，市场担心会出现供应过剩的情况。 截至3月，渣打银行对40家美国独立油气公司进行的一项调查显示，这些公司的对冲保护力度很小。对于它们合计每日 503万桶的产量，其2025年的石油对冲比例仅为21%，2026年的对冲比例更是只有4%。 作为对比，美国页岩油行业在 2020年年初时的石油对冲比例为51.7%。这一比例在疫情期间油价暴跌时为该行业提供了重要支撑。 评估能源（Evaluate Energy）4月份的数据显示，截至2024年底，北美独立油气生产商2025年上半年超过80%的石油产 量未进行对冲。当OPEC+增产以及对全球经济衰退的担忧给市场带来压力时，这些生产商就会面临风险。 然而，在6 月12日至13日期间，Aegis Hedging平台的对冲活动激增，达到历史新高。这是因为在WTI油价因地缘政治因素上涨的 背景下，生产商们纷纷急于在短期内锁定更高的价格。 与因基本面因素导致 ...

Core Viewpoint - There is significant uncertainty regarding how the UK economy will respond to shocks, as stated by the Deputy Governor of the Bank of England, Ramsden [1] Group 1 - The Deputy Governor highlighted the challenges faced by the UK economy in the current environment [1] - Ramsden emphasized the importance of monitoring economic indicators to better understand potential impacts [1] - The statement reflects broader concerns about economic stability and resilience in the face of external pressures [1]

Core Insights - A key indicator measuring currency demand, known as "cross-currency basis swaps," is gaining attention on Wall Street [1] - This indicator reflects the cost of exchanging two currencies beyond the implied levels of cash market borrowing costs, influencing the long-term foreign exchange hedging costs for global companies and investors [1] - Recent trends in cross-currency basis suggest a decline in interest for dollar-denominated assets, while interest in euro and yen-denominated assets is increasing [1] - The impact of U.S. tariff policies appears to have triggered a temporary withdrawal from dollar assets, posing a challenge to the dollar amid growing skepticism about its global financial dominance [1]

Group 1 - The global fundamental long/short hedge funds experienced a loss of 50 basis points last week, but gained 103 basis points in June and are up 425 basis points year-to-date [1] - The total leverage ratio for fundamental long/short strategies decreased by 0.3 percentage points to 206.2%, which is in the 94th percentile for the past year, while the net leverage ratio fell by 1.7 percentage points to 50.2%, placing it in the 14th percentile for the same period [1] - Asian emerging markets faced significant net selling, primarily driven by the Chinese market, with hedge funds net selling Chinese stocks for the fourth consecutive week at the fastest pace in two and a half months, entirely driven by short selling [1] Group 2 - Macro products and individual stocks were both net sold, with a roughly equal share in the nominal net selling total; the sectors with the highest net selling were non-essential consumer, essential consumer, healthcare, and financials [2] - H-shares experienced net selling throughout the week, while A-shares and American Depositary Receipts (ADRs) saw relatively smaller net selling [2] - The total holdings/net holdings of Chinese stocks, as a percentage of the total risk exposure of major brokerage accounts, are currently at 4.8% and 6.8%, respectively, which are in the 52nd and 26th percentiles compared to the past year, and in the 11th and 7th percentiles compared to the past five years [2]

鉴于美国对伊朗发动军事打击后，页岩油生产商更倾向于通过对冲锁定收益而非增产，他们不太可能响应美国总统特朗普最新发出的"钻吧，宝贝，钻 吧"（Drill, Baby, Drill ）增产号召。 美国日均产量约1340万桶，超过沙特与伊朗的总和。在合适的油价激励下，页岩盆地的企业具备独特能力在6至9个月内快速增产。但最近，由于担心特朗普 关税对消费的影响以及欧佩克增产导致油价下跌，这些企业已开始收缩，削减钻机和工人数量。 "你不可能一夜之间'钻吧，宝贝，钻吧'，"沃斯堡德州基督教大学能源金融助理教授汤姆·森（Tom Seng）表示，"我们需要看到油价持续数月上涨，企业才 会重新增加钻机数量。" 自4月触及四年低点以来，油价已反弹。上周末美军对伊朗三大核设施的打击引发了对中东能源供应中断的担忧（中东占全球原油供应约三分之一），本周 开盘之初油价再次跳涨。 但第三桥美国公司（Third Bridge US Inc）分析师彼得·麦克纳利（Peter McNally）指出，在得克萨斯、北达科他和新墨西哥的页岩油田，高管们不太可能基 于突然的价格波动改变资本预算。美国产量今年基本停滞，部分公司警告页岩油已达或接近峰值。 分 ...