不过，部分分析师指出，关税阴影可能短期刺激客户抢先下单，从而带来需求激增。彭博智库分析师Ken Hui分析称，欧洲芯片制造商今年可能面 临重大风险，美"对等关税"政策或导致2025年全球半导体市场增长转为负值。 财报发布后，NXP美股盘后下跌超7%。有分析师称，尽管NXP通过并购布局高增长赛道，但宏观经济与政策风险仍对行业复苏构成阻力。受电动 汽车和智能手机相关芯片需求疲软拖累，包括NXP、意法半导体（STMicroelectronics）、英飞凌（Infineon）等厂商正面临周期性挑战。 在公司公布的2025财年第一季度财报中，NXP营收同比下滑9%至28.4亿美元，略高于预期的28.3亿美元；调整后每股收益为2.64美元，高于预期 的2.58美元；净利润录得4.9亿美元，同比减少23%；每股净收益1.92美元，同比下降22%。 财报显示，NXP第一季度汽车业务销售额为16.7亿美元，低于分析师预期的16.9亿美元。公司表示，客户仍在消化疫情期间积累的半导体库存，导 致需求持续疲软。此外，美国近期提出的关税政策可能进一步加剧市场不确定性。 【环球网财经综合报道】荷兰芯片制造商恩智浦半导体（NXP Semi ...

2025年，美国特朗普政府推动的"对等关税"政策，无声地改写了全球货品贸易秩序，也暗中牵动了服务 贸易的板块位移。 旅游业作为服务贸易的重要组成，在商品价格上涨、可支配所得下滑、国际信任流失的多重压力下，亦 感受到了地壳般的震荡。 从本质看，这场关税战对美国而言，既是应对急速膨胀的38万亿美元联邦国债的缓兵之计，也是国内财 政收入的短期补充工具——最终，特朗普选择以激烈的方式应对结构性赤字问题。 在这场全球经济震荡中，旅游业虽非直接涉入货物贸易，却无可避免地被波及。海择资本基于此，提出 以下观察。 在内外夹击下，美国旅游业增长放缓已成必然，而从震央扩散的震荡，正快速向全球延伸。 远距共振：全球旅游业受创 美国旅游业： 震央的初波冲击 对等关税政策直接针对的是货品贸易，但随之而来的连锁效应，迅速渗透至美国服务贸易中旅游业的各 个环节。 酒店、航空器、车辆及设施维护成本的上升，使得酒店建设、景区维护、交通运输等基础设施的资本开 支同步上扬，这种成本推升最终将透过票价、住宿费用、旅游服务价格，回到消费者身上。 不仅如此，非旅游消费品同样因原料与物流成本上升而价格飙涨，进一步侵蚀了民众的可支配所得。 耶鲁大学Budg ...

复盘历史可知，全球范围内的大规模加征关税会对全球贸易造成显著冲击。 1929年后，全球经济渐次步入衰退。在此情形下，保护本国就业，让农民免受外国竞争的影响，成为美国政府的首要目标。基于此，胡佛政府推动关税法案 自1929年起在国会开启听证与投票程序，历经一番过程，《斯穆特-霍利关税法案》最终于1930年6月正式落地。 《斯穆特-霍利关税法案》将美国超过两万种进口商品的关税大幅提高，其关税水平跃至历史第二高，仅次于1828年的关税水平。关税法案出台后，美国主 要贸易伙伴迅速做出反应，英国、加拿大、日本等国纷纷采取相关反制措施。在这些举措的共同作用下，美国与各主要贸易伙伴之间的双边贸易额均大幅下 滑。与此同时，全球贸易额也呈现持续收缩的态势，国际贸易环境急剧恶化。 从关税法案的具体影响来看，1929—1933年，全球贸易额减少了29.7%，且在关税法案出台的10年后全球贸易额仍未修复到1929年的水平。主要贸易伙伴方 面，1929—1933年，美国从加拿大、德国、英国和日本等国家的进口额均减少超过50%，其间对这些国家的出口额也至少缩减30%。直到1934年，民主党政 府颁布了《互惠贸易协定法》，允许总统在未经国 ...

石油，被誉为"工业的血液"，又被称为"黑色的金子"。 作为全球最重要的大宗商品、经济运行情况风向标之一，石油价格的跌宕起伏牵动着各方神经。随着美 国"对等关税"政策引发市场对全球经济衰退的担忧，加上"欧佩克+"（石油输出国组织欧佩克和非欧佩 克产油国）打破多年"减产保价"惯例，宣布5月将大规模增产形成的下跌合力，国际油价自4月开始经历 了一轮暴跌，WTI油价一度跌破60美元/桶。 对于国际油价未来走向，多位专家在接受上海证券报记者采访时表示，考虑到全球博弈加剧与贸易谈判 节奏未来仍将持续扰动市场，今年国际油价或宽幅震荡，尤其要警惕"对等关税"政策后续走向、霍尔木 兹海峡潜在冲突及"欧佩克+"内部补偿减产带来的极端波动。 油价大跌"三重门" 今年4月以来，国际油价大幅下跌。5月交货的WTI油价从4月2日收盘价71.71美元/桶跌至4月8日的59.58 美元/桶；6月交货的布伦特油价从4月2日收盘价74.95美元/桶回落至4月8日的62.82美元/桶。截至4月25 日收盘，WTI油价为63.02美元/桶，布伦特油价为66.87美元/桶。 "本轮油价大跌直接的导火索是美国出台所谓'对等关税'政策。"对外经济贸易大学 ...

投资咨询业务资格：证监许可【2011】1778 号 晨会纪要 宝城期货橡胶早报-2025-04-28 品种晨会纪要 时间周期说明：短期为一周以内、中期为两周至一月 | 品种 | | 短期 | 中期 | 日内 | 观点参考 | 核心逻辑概要 | | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | | 沪胶 | 2509 | 震荡 | 震荡 偏弱 | 震荡 偏弱 | 偏弱运行 | 反弹阻力较大，沪胶震荡偏弱 | | 合成胶 | 2506 | 震荡 | 震荡 偏弱 | 震荡 偏弱 | 偏弱运行 | 反弹阻力较大，合成胶震荡偏弱 | 备注： 1.有夜盘的品种以夜盘收盘价为起始价格，无夜盘的品种以昨日收盘价为起始价格，当日日盘收盘 价为终点价格，计算涨跌幅度。 2.跌幅大于 1%为下跌，跌幅 0~1%为震荡偏弱，涨幅 0~1%为震荡偏强，涨幅大于 1%为上涨。 3.震荡偏强/偏弱只针对日内观点，短期和中期不做区分。 主要品种价格行情驱动逻辑—商品期货能源化工板块 沪胶（RU） 日内观点：震荡偏弱 中期观点：震荡偏弱 参考观点：偏弱运行 核心逻辑：随着美国"对等关税"政策的负面影响逐渐 ...

文 ｜ 明明 彭阳 章立聪 周成华 我们基于4月以来的高频数据，分析了美国"对等关税"政策以来我国出口以及经济运行的情况。数据显示，美国加征关税及取消 小额包裹免税政策对出口链条形成显著冲击，义乌小商品出口价格指数与总价格指数出现分化，反映出出口与内销市场结构的 调整；集装箱运价分化则揭示出制造业对外需变化的高度敏感性。同时，原油及化工品期货价格走弱，表明中游产业链承受下 行压力，PPI面临回落的风险。尽管如此，沥青装置开工率等数据回升，表明基建投资需求有所支撑。4月新兴产业EPMI大幅回 落至4 9 . 4%，进一步印证外部冲击对新兴制造业景气度的压制。本轮外部冲击主要通过需求端传导，企业应对策略呈现分化，未 来出口修复的关键在于市场多元化和全球贸易的改善。 4月新兴产业EPMI指数大幅回落至4 9 . 4%，环比下降1 0 . 2个百分点，远超正常季节性波动水平。这一变化主要由外需冲击主 导，关税加征直接压制了出口订单，企业生产同步收缩。不同于疫情时期以供给收缩为特征，本轮冲击是需求侧主导。面对突 发性外部冲击，不同企业展现出差异化应对策略：一部分企业暂停扩张、转向新兴市场、或局部产能外迁以规避关税风险； ...

申万宏源宏观｜聚焦"政治局会议"20250427 摘要 • 欧盟与美国重启高级别贸易谈判，但具体时间未定；英国坚持食品安全等 核心标准，不急于达成贸易协议。中美虽有沟通，但对降低关税的说法存 在分歧。美日谈判聚焦汽车、农产品及防卫费用，日本态度谨慎。 • 美联储官员表态偏鸽派，暗示可能在就业市场恶化时更快降息，6 月或采 取行动。美国制造业 PMI 略强于预期，服务业 PMI 则不及预期。市场预期 美联储 5 月降息概率为 8%，6 月为 58%，降息时点存在分歧。 • 对等关税政策冲击美国资本市场，影响美债市场，并导致特朗普团队内部 权力再分配。财政部长姆努钦在中美谈判中发挥关键作用。美印、越南等 贸易关系也在磋商中。 • 美联储可能在年中调整或结束缩表，但上半年债务上限问题导致 TGA 账户 释放流动性，缓解了货币市场紧张。解决债务上限后，回补 TGA 账户可能 加剧三季度流动性紧张，对杠杆交易者构成风险。 • 日本政府出台对冲关税政策，侧重于企业咨询和融资支持，而非直接补贴， 旨在提高企业竞争力和抗风险能力。这些措施旨在帮助企业应对国际贸易 环境变化带来的挑战。 Q&A 最近海外资本市场的主要动向是什么 ...

Core Viewpoint - The article discusses the controversial decision of Li Ka-shing to sell port operations in Panama, which has led to significant backlash and potential financial repercussions for his business empire [2][4][42]. Group 1: Transaction Details - Li Ka-shing's company, Cheung Kong Group, announced the sale of its port operations in Panama for $22.8 billion, which has drawn criticism from the public and government officials [4][43]. - The sale was intended to be finalized on April 2, but was delayed due to government intervention [8][25]. Group 2: Economic Context - The U.S. acquisition of the Panama port is seen as a strategic move, potentially increasing transit fees and transportation costs for global trade [6][8]. - The ongoing U.S.-China trade war has exacerbated the situation, with tariffs rising significantly, impacting both countries' economies [10][12][19]. Group 3: Public Reaction - The public response to Li Ka-shing's decision has been overwhelmingly negative, with many labeling him a "traitor" and questioning his judgment in light of his age [2][4][36]. - There is a perception that Li Ka-shing is prioritizing personal gain over national interests, leading to further criticism from the public [30][34]. Group 4: Future Implications - The potential for Panama to revoke the operating rights of the port from Li Ka-shing's company has emerged, following a comprehensive audit initiated by the Panamanian government [25][28]. - The article suggests that Li Ka-shing's past successes may not guarantee future stability, especially if public sentiment continues to turn against him [40][42].

Core Viewpoint - A recent poll indicates that 72.57% of the Taiwanese public does not trust Trump, significantly impacting perceptions of his administration's policies [1] Group 1: Poll Results - 72.57% of respondents in Taiwan believe Trump is not trustworthy, while only 16.1% consider him trustworthy [1] - The survey was conducted among individuals aged 20 and above across more than 20 counties and cities in Taiwan [1] - The effective sample size for the poll was 1,076, with a response rate of 40.54% [1] Group 2: Survey Details - The poll was conducted from April 14 to April 17, 2025 [1] - The survey was carried out by the "China Broadcasting Corporation Public Opinion Survey Association" [1]

1. Report Industry Investment Ratings No industry investment ratings were provided in the report. 2. Core Views of the Report - The "reciprocal tariff" policy of the United States continues to loosen, leading to a significant increase in global risk appetite. The short - term stagflation risk of the US economy is increasing, with the US dollar index falling. In China, market - stabilizing measures and potential new policies support the domestic market risk appetite [2]. - For asset investment, the stock index is expected to rebound in the short - term with cautious long positions; treasury bonds will oscillate at a high level with cautious long positions; the black metal sector is weakly oscillating with cautious observation; the non - ferrous metal sector is oscillating and rebounding with cautious long positions; the energy and chemical sector is oscillating with cautious observation; precious metals are rising with cautious long positions [2]. 3. Summary by Relevant Catalogs 3.1 Macro - Overseas: The preliminary value of the US Michigan Consumer Confidence Index in April was 50.8, lower than expected, and the one - year inflation rate expectation reached a 40 - year high, increasing the short - term stagflation risk. The US has exempted some electronic products from "reciprocal tariffs", and the global risk appetite has increased [2]. - Domestic: The loosening of the US "reciprocal tariff" policy and domestic market - stabilizing measures and potential new policies support the domestic market risk appetite [2]. 3.2 Stock Index - Supported by sectors such as semiconductors, non - metallic materials, and precious metals, the domestic stock market continued to rebound. With the loosening of the US "reciprocal tariff" policy and domestic support measures, short - term cautious long positions are recommended [2][3]. 3.3 Precious Metals - Gold: Due to the US government's credit damage, the selling of US dollar assets, and geopolitical uncertainties, gold remains strong. A significant correction may present a long - term allocation opportunity [4]. - Silver: Affected by trade frictions, it fell 3.81% last week. It may follow gold and show a weakly oscillating and upward trend [4]. 3.4 Black Metal - Steel: The spot and futures prices of steel continued to be weak last week, but the decline slowed down over the weekend. The apparent demand for some steel products decreased, and the supply of some varieties may still increase. Short - term observation is recommended [5][7]. - Iron Ore: The spot and futures prices rebounded slightly. Iron water production may continue to increase, but there is a downward expectation in the medium - term. The short - term price will oscillate within a range [7]. - Ferrosilicon and Silicomanganese: The spot prices remained flat. The demand for ferroalloys is fair, but the supply is decreasing. Short - term price oscillation within a range is expected [8]. 3.5 Energy and Chemical - Crude Oil: After tariff fluctuations, the oil price rebounded slightly, but the market is still worried about demand decline. The Iran sanctions risk may lead to short - term price fluctuations, and long - term oversupply is expected [9]. - Asphalt: It oscillates weakly following the oil price. The inventory has decreased, but the actual demand is weak, and the price fluctuation will remain high [9]. - PX: The external price has dropped significantly. It will continue to be weak in the short - term, but there may be a slight rebound later [10][11]. - PTA: Terminal orders are affected by tariffs, and the short - term rebound space is limited, remaining in a weak state [11]. - Ethylene Glycol: The short - term demand is poor, and the de - stocking time is postponed. It will oscillate at a low level [11]. - Short - fiber: The price has been corrected significantly, and it will continue to oscillate weakly, but there is some support [11]. - Methanol: The inventory is decreasing, but the supply is expected to increase. The 05 contract will oscillate and repair, and the 09 contract is bearish [12]. - PP: The downstream start - up has decreased slightly, but the supply reduction may relieve the pressure, and the price will oscillate and repair [12]. - LLDPE: The downstream demand has declined, and the 09 contract's center of gravity will move down [12]. 3.6 Non - ferrous Metal - Copper: The US may not increase tariffs further. Looking for low points for a rebound is a more prudent strategy in the short - term [13]. - Aluminum: The inventory has decreased, and it can be considered for a rebound after a short - term correction [13]. - Tin: The macro situation is expected to improve market sentiment. The smelter start - up has declined, and the inventory has decreased. The tin price will rebound in the short - term [14]. 3.7 Agricultural Products - US Soybeans: The supply - demand expectation has tightened, and the price may rebound if there are weather risks during the spring sowing [15]. - Soybean Meal: The domestic supply has decreased, and the inventory has shrunk. The price will fluctuate at a high level, and the downward space is limited [15]. - Rapeseed Meal: It has entered the consumption season, and the inventory is high. The supply risk has decreased, and there is room for the price difference between soybean meal and rapeseed meal to rebound [15]. - Soybean Oil: The demand is in the off - season, and the price is supported by the risk premium of imported soybeans. The basis may weaken in the second quarter [16]. - Palm Oil: The domestic inventory is low, but the global production is increasing, and the price is under pressure [16][17]. - Rapeseed Oil: The domestic inventory is high, and the price is under pressure. The cost support is stable but lacks driving force [17].