特朗普的"对等关税政策"将对我国产生诸多影响，尤其是对我国民营企业、中小企业影响巨大。就影响范围及机制而言，对等关税会通过产业链传导的方 式波及上游行业和中部地区，高关税会提高企业的运营成本，大幅缩减企业的海外订单，同时可能导致产业链外迁，并衍生一系列的就业与民生问题。从 趋势看，美国与中国的脱钩和对中国的封锁控制是长期趋势。为此，与会专家提出如下建议：一是企业自身应合理调整经营策略，拓展销售渠道并提升出 口结构多元性，加大研发力度，在产品的品类和质量上做文章，力争转危为机。二是政府部门应实现对受影响行业、地区精准施策，避免"一刀切"。具体 措施包括：发挥地方能动性开拓新市场、加大力度开发国内市场、提振消费、抓住小包裹免税的时间差、实施进口对等豁免、重视库存商品的解决等。此 外，与会企业界代表在会上也表达了对政府政策的期待，希望政府通过减税、降费、信保、出口退税政策等提供一定的政策空间，同时希望政府帮助企业 寻找替代进出口渠道、放宽融资门槛、推进对美高依赖度产业链的国产化工作以及专业市场建设等，适时灵活地调整相关政策。 2025年4月18日上午，中国人民大学国家发展与战略研究院和国家中小企业研究院举办了以"对 ...

据报道，在当今复杂的国际经济局势中，特朗普掀起的关税大战如同风暴一般，席卷全球，众多国家深受其害，而美日之间的关税谈判也备受瞩 目。如今，美日关税谈判已然谈崩，日本首相石破茂撂下"绝对不能接受"这6个字，背后究竟有着怎样的故事，又揭示了怎样的国际经济博弈呢？ 石破茂（资料图） 5月5日当天，石破茂在一档电视节目中针对美日两国关税谈判问题发表了重要表态。他明确指出，"虽然美日双方进行了深入磋商并取得相当进 展，但对以汽车为代表的关税，我们绝对不能接受"。同时，石破茂还反复强调，要力争以符合日美双方国家利益的方式达成协议。截至目前，美 日双方已经围绕关税问题进行了两轮谈判，然而最终的结果均不尽人意，直白来讲，就是谈判破裂了。 回溯到4月中旬的首轮谈判，原本参与谈判的是日本经济再生担当大臣赤泽亮正和美国财政部长贝森特、美国贸易代表格里尔。但令人意外的是， 美国总统特朗普突然亲自"下场"，并与赤泽亮正进行了长达50多分钟的交谈。当时，特朗普曾高调地对外宣称谈判"取得了重大进展"，可事实却并 非如此。特朗普试图将关税问题与驻日美军军费分摊问题强行捆绑，以此逼迫日本政府二选一：要么日本承担更多的驻日美军费用；要么美国继续 ...

Group 1 - The Federal Reserve decided to maintain the federal funds rate target range at 4.25% to 4.50%, marking a continuation of the previous decisions from January and March [1] - The Fed's current stance reflects a wait-and-see approach amid high uncertainty, with potential for interest rate cuts in the second half of the year [1][4] - Inflation in the U.S. is expected to show a slow downward trend, with the overall PCE price index increasing by 2.3% year-on-year in March, approaching the 2% target [1][2] Group 2 - Factors contributing to the decline in U.S. inflation include a significant drop in oil prices, which have decreased by approximately 20% this year, and a steady decline in housing inflation [2] - Wage growth is continuing to slow, which impacts service inflation, and the overall inflation is influenced by various factors including tariffs and consumer behavior [2] - The U.S. economy experienced a 0.3% decline in GDP in the first quarter, primarily due to increased imports and reduced government spending, but a rebound is expected in the second quarter [3] Group 3 - Employment data remains stable, with an average of 155,000 non-farm jobs added over the past three months and an unemployment rate of 4.2% [3] - The manufacturing PMI index shows resilience, particularly in the service sector, which continues to expand [3] - The introduction of "reciprocal tariffs" has led to a significant reduction in cargo traffic at U.S. ports, affecting hiring practices among U.S. companies [4]

中美关税战愈演愈烈，尽管特朗普派人频繁接触中方，但却不打算拿出实际诚意谈判。中方自然不会给美国台阶下，"正在评估"4个字就是对中美谈判的态 度。关键时刻，美前财长耶伦看不下去了，出山警告特朗普已经被中国拿捏，继续关税战就是"自杀"行为。耶伦为何突然出面警告？关税战第2个月又将何 去何从呢？ 自特朗普4月2日掀起关税战以来，美国的内部情绪就像失控的航海罗盘。最开始美国人对特朗普的决定充满信心，虽然没有得到国会支持，但美国是全球军 事最强国、最大经济体，这样的体量逼迫中国妥协不成问题。然而美国前财长耶伦却开始泼冷水，她在4月10日接受媒体采访时就公开唱衰特朗普政府，强 调"对等关税"的政策破坏性太大，尤其是对美国工人和普通家庭带来的影响是"毁灭性的"，没有资本会在不确定基础上进行长期投资，很容易引发美国经济 衰退。 毫无疑问，耶伦这是在猛戳特朗普一直不愿意揭开的伤疤，尽管这大概率是来自民主党对特朗普的反击，他们巴不得看特朗普的笑话，但同时不能否认耶伦 说的这些都是事实。在清洁能源技术方面，早在美国"去工业化"的同一时期就开始走下坡路了，美国两党开始刻意压制新能源技术的研发，因为他们的竞选 活动需要这些矿物燃料利益 ...

Core Viewpoint - The recent surge in Asian currencies, including the New Taiwan Dollar and Hong Kong Dollar, is attributed to a potential sell-off of US dollars by Asian countries, which could lead to significant downward pressure on the US dollar, estimated at $2.5 trillion [2][4][5]. Currency Movements - The New Taiwan Dollar experienced a dramatic increase of 10% over two days, marking its highest level since February 2023 and the largest single-day gain in 37 years [4]. - The Hong Kong Dollar triggered its strong-side convertibility guarantee three times since May 3, with the Hong Kong Monetary Authority injecting a total of HKD 116.6 billion into the market [3][4]. - The offshore Chinese Yuan rose by nearly 0.91%, reaching its highest level since November of the previous year [2]. Economic Factors - Stephen Jen, a prominent economist, warned that the sell-off of US dollars by Asian countries could lead to a significant depreciation of the dollar, aligning with his previous predictions regarding the Yuan's appreciation [2][5]. - The weakening of the US dollar is linked to reduced growth expectations for the US economy, with recent economic data indicating a downturn and increasing speculation about potential interest rate cuts by the Federal Reserve [4][5]. Market Reactions - The surge in Asian currencies is seen as a reaction to the declining attractiveness of dollar assets, prompting companies with large dollar holdings to sell off their dollars and convert to local currencies [5][6]. - Goldman Sachs reported that the dollar is currently overvalued by approximately 15%, suggesting that as the US returns diminish, the dollar's overvaluation may gradually correct [5][6]. Future Projections - If the US current account deficit decreases significantly, it could lead to substantial adjustments in the dollar's value, with potential depreciations of 16.5% to 31% depending on the extent of the deficit reduction [6].

石破茂在与特朗普通话时重点提及，日本已连续五年成为对美最大投资国，累计投资额超过1万亿美 元，为美国创造了大量就业岗位。这段话，软硬都可以理解。按软的理解，日本为美国经济没有功劳也 有苦劳，你看，我们为你们创造了那么多的就业岗位，就不能念一点旧情么？按硬的理解，如果如果美 国真的要对日本加关税，到时候美国失业率上升，可别说日本没有有言在先。 签订"广场协议"的五国代表（资料图） 据环球时报报道，1985年，美国召集英国、法国、西德和日本五大工业化国家集团（G5）的政府代表 到纽约开会，讨论如何解决美国严重的贸易逆差和财政赤字问题。会议在纽约的广场酒店召开，9月， 会议产生了一项联合协议，就以酒店的名字命名为"广场协议"。广场协议旨在通过政府干预货币市场， 使美元相对于日元、英镑、法国法郎和德国马克等主要国际货币贬值，从而促进美国出口，平衡贸易逆 差。很多人认为，正是这一协议导致了日本经济"停滞的十年"，其不利影响至今仍在。 与此同时，美日已在华盛顿展开首轮贸易谈判，谈判结束后，特朗普宣称取得"重大进展"，但路透社表 示，美日双方除了同意再次会面外，几乎没有取得进展。日本首相石破茂表示，日本不会为达成关税协 议 ...

Core Viewpoint - A trend of Chinese manufacturers establishing factories in the U.S. is emerging, driven by high tariffs and the need for more stable supply chains, as well as the desire to reduce costs and increase competitiveness in the American market [9][32][39]. Group 1: Manufacturing Trends - Chinese manufacturers are increasingly seeking to set up operations in the U.S. to mitigate the impact of tariffs and to adapt to changing market conditions [9][32]. - The "factory within a factory" model is becoming popular, allowing Chinese companies to utilize existing American facilities and resources, thus reducing initial investment costs [14][16]. - Many Chinese manufacturers are transitioning from "Made in China" to "Assembled in USA," which helps in lowering tariffs and improving market access [15][28]. Group 2: Cost Structure - The cost of setting up operations in the U.S. is primarily driven by labor and facility expenses, with average hourly wages for U.S. manufacturing workers being significantly higher than those in China [48][49]. - Simplified assembly lines can be established at low costs, with per-unit costs as low as $10, depending on the product [18][19]. - The use of local resources and labor can help mitigate some of the high costs associated with U.S. manufacturing [16][19]. Group 3: Market Dynamics - U.S. retailers are increasingly interested in sourcing locally to ensure stable supply chains, even if it means paying higher prices [39][41]. - The shift towards local assembly is seen as a way to enhance product competitiveness and to counteract the effects of tariffs [37][39]. - The demand for American-made products is rising, with many U.S. brands preferring to work with local manufacturers to avoid the risks associated with overseas supply chains [39][64]. Group 4: Challenges and Limitations - Despite the potential benefits, challenges such as high labor costs, regulatory complexities, and a lack of skilled labor in the U.S. manufacturing sector remain significant hurdles [52][56]. - The uncertainty surrounding U.S.-China trade relations and the potential for fluctuating tariffs adds to the risk for manufacturers considering U.S. operations [58][61]. - The current manufacturing landscape in the U.S. is still developing, and many Chinese companies face difficulties in scaling their operations effectively [56][68].

美国试图通过 "对等关税" 推动制造业回流，但这一举措却违背了经济规律。美国国内要素供给有限且 成本高昂，产业链配套远不及一些制造业大国完善。强行加征关税，迫使企业回流，导致企业生产成本 大幅上升。彭博社分析指出，美国所谓 "对等关税" 将导致全球供应链成本上升 40% 。企业为了维持生 产，不得不将增加的成本转嫁到产品价格上，使得美国制造的产品在国际市场上竞争力下降，出口受 阻，进而影响企业营收与利润，最终减少政府税收收入。 （二）农业：出口受挫，农民受损 美国是农业出口大国，然而 "对等关税" 引发的贸易报复，让美国农产品出口遭受沉重打击。许多国家 对美国农产品加征关税，导致美国农产品在国际市场上价格缺乏竞争力，出口量锐减。美国农业部长表 示，关税将加剧美国鸡蛋价格上涨。美国农民面临农产品滞销、价格下跌的困境，收入大幅减少。农业 相关企业也受到牵连，从农产品加工到运输等环节，整个产业链陷入低迷，影响了大量就业岗位和相关 经济活动，税收来源相应减少。 在全球经济紧密交织的当下，美国推行的 "对等关税" 政策正如同一场破坏力巨大的风暴，席卷着美国 自身以及全球经济体系。从旅游业的显著衰退，到其他多领域经济层面 ...

Core Viewpoint - The article highlights the strong performance of the Renminbi (RMB) against the US dollar, with significant movements in the offshore RMB market and implications for the Hong Kong stock market [1][2][4]. Currency Performance - On May 5, the offshore RMB surpassed the 7.20 mark against the US dollar for the first time since November of the previous year, gaining over 100 points in a single day [2]. - The US dollar index fell below the 100 mark, reaching a low of 99.673, reflecting a decline of 8.03% year-to-date [2][3]. Market Reactions - The FTSE China A50 index futures rose sharply, reporting an increase of 0.84% [2]. - The Hong Kong Hang Seng Index rebounded by 1.74% on May 2, closing at 22,504.68 points, driven by the strengthening of the offshore RMB [4]. Economic Policy Insights - According to Jianyin International's chief strategist, the Central Political Bureau's meeting set a positive tone for the market, emphasizing the need for proactive macroeconomic policies to stabilize market expectations [5]. - The strategist anticipates that relevant policies will be implemented by the end of June, with a focus on defensive dividend sectors in investment strategies [5].

Core Viewpoint - Berkshire Hathaway reported a significant decline in net earnings for Q1 2025, primarily due to losses in its investment portfolio and challenges in its insurance business [2][5]. Financial Performance - Total revenues for Q1 2025 were $89.725 billion, nearly flat compared to $89.869 billion in Q1 2024 [3][5]. - Net earnings attributable to Berkshire shareholders were $4.603 billion, a substantial decrease of 63% from $12.702 billion in the previous year [5]. - Operating profit for the quarter was $9.641 billion, down from $11.222 billion year-over-year [5]. Business Segment Analysis - In the insurance segment, net profit decreased by $1.3 billion due to the impact of wildfires in Southern California [5]. - The energy segment saw a 53% increase in net profit, with U.S. utility operations growing by 13.8% due to rising electricity prices, increased customer base, and tax credits [5]. - Investment losses amounted to $5.038 billion, primarily driven by fluctuations in equity securities and foreign exchange rates, compared to a gain of $1.48 billion in the same period last year [5]. Investment Portfolio - The current investment portfolio includes $305.5 billion in short-term government bonds, a 6.6% increase year-over-year, and $263.73 billion in equity securities, with the top five holdings accounting for 69% of the equity portfolio [5]. - The concentration of equity investments has slightly decreased from 71% at the end of 2024 [5]. Shareholder Meeting Insights - The annual shareholder meeting attracted a record attendance of 19,700 participants, highlighting its significance in the investment community [9]. - Buffett emphasized the negative implications of using trade as a weapon, advocating for a more cooperative global economy [10]. Stock Performance - Berkshire's Class A shares have seen an 18.86% increase year-to-date, with the price-to-book ratio reaching 1.79, the highest since 2007 [10].