Inflation Trends - The core CPI in the US rose by 0.1 percentage points to 3.0% year-on-year in July, with a month-on-month increase of 0.32%, marking the second-highest rise since April 2024[3] - Core durable goods prices increased significantly by 0.36% month-on-month, while energy prices fell by 1.07%, indicating the impact of elevated tariff rates on goods inflation[4] - The labor market's cooling has not significantly affected inflation, as average hourly wages rebounded, sustaining the wage inflation spiral[4] Federal Reserve Policy Implications - The strong rebound in core inflation may limit the Federal Reserve's ability to cut interest rates, as maintaining a long-term inflation target of 2% becomes challenging[5] - The ongoing high tariff rates, ranging from 10% to 41%, are expected to further influence the core CPI in the coming months as trade agreements are finalized[5] - The anticipated effects of large-scale tax cuts for residents and businesses have yet to materialize, suggesting that inflationary pressures may persist[5] Economic Outlook - The current economic cycle is likely to remain heated, with potential upward pressure on core inflation due to a tighter labor market and rising wage growth[5] - The divergence in monetary policy among major developed economies may lead to a rebound in the US dollar index as it adjusts to real interest rate differentials[5] - Risks include the possibility that the Federal Reserve's interest rate cuts may not meet expectations, which could constrain monetary easing in other countries[6]

Core Viewpoint - The article indicates that the U.S. inflation is entering a structural upward phase, with core CPI rebounding to over 3%, moving further away from the Federal Reserve's 2% target, which may increase internal disagreements within the Fed regarding policy decisions [2][5][6]. Inflation Data Summary - In July, the core CPI adjusted month-on-month increased by 0.3%, and year-on-year rose from 2.9% to 3.1%, exceeding market expectations. Overall CPI increased by 0.2% month-on-month and remained at 2.7% year-on-year, slightly below expectations [2][5]. - The inflation characteristics in July showed moderate goods prices and a rebound in services. Tariff costs are still being passed on to consumers, but some prices have started to decline [3][4]. Goods Price Analysis - The core goods price index increased by 0.2% month-on-month, consistent with the previous month. Notable increases were seen in furniture (+0.9%), curtains (+1.2%), and audio-visual equipment (+0.8%). However, some previously rising categories like appliances (-2.2%) and men's clothing (-1.3%) showed weakness [3]. - Used car prices rebounded to a month-on-month increase of 0.5%, while new car prices stabilized, indicating a potential shift in pricing strategies by manufacturers due to institutionalized tariff policies [3][5]. Services Price Analysis - The supercore price index, excluding rent, increased by 0.5% month-on-month, with significant contributions from previously declining airfares, which surged by 4%. This suggests a stabilization in travel activities [4][5]. - Other service prices, including vehicle maintenance (+1.2%) and medical services (+0.8%), continued to rise, indicating persistent inflationary pressures in the service sector [4]. Overall Inflation Outlook - The July CPI data does not alter the outlook for U.S. inflation, which is expected to rise structurally. The effects of tariff cost pass-through are anticipated to become more evident in the coming months, with core goods inflation facing upward risks [5][6]. - The Fed may struggle to reach a consensus on policy direction due to the mixed signals from inflation data, leading to increased volatility in the market [6].

Core Viewpoint - The Governor of the Bank of Japan, Kazuo Ueda, has expressed concerns about the risks of core inflation being influenced by a higher overall Consumer Price Index (CPI) inflation rate [1] Group 1 - The Bank of Japan is monitoring the potential impact of rising overall CPI on core inflation [1] - Ueda emphasized the need for vigilance regarding inflation trends in the economy [1] - The statement reflects ongoing concerns about inflationary pressures in Japan's economy [1]

Core Viewpoint - The Governor of the Bank of Japan, Kazuo Ueda, emphasizes the need to pay closer attention to core inflation and its potential impact on inflation expectations [1] Group 1 - The Bank of Japan is focusing on core inflation as a critical factor influencing overall inflation trends [1] - There is a recognition that changes in core inflation could significantly affect public and market expectations regarding future inflation [1]

Core Viewpoint - The Deputy Governor of the Reserve Bank of Australia stated that the core inflation results are very much in line with expectations [1] Summary by Relevant Categories - **Inflation Insights** - Core inflation results align closely with market expectations, indicating stability in the economic outlook [1]

Core Viewpoint - Federal Reserve Chairman Jerome Powell stated that 30% to 40% of core inflation is attributed to tariffs [1] Group 1 - The impact of tariffs on inflation is significant, indicating that trade policies can influence economic conditions [1] - Powell's comments suggest that the current inflationary pressures may be partially driven by external factors related to trade [1]

Group 1 - The Federal Reserve Chairman Powell indicated that inflation in the service sector is decreasing while inflation in goods is increasing [1] - It was noted that 30% to 40% of core inflation is attributed to tariffs [1]

加拿大央行行长Macklem：核心通胀偏高，使得央行暂停利率政策行动。 ...

加拿大央行行长麦克勒姆：导致核心通胀上升的一些因素可能会逆转。 ...

金十数据7月30日讯，最新数据显示，澳大利亚第二季度核心通胀率进一步降温，为澳洲联储最早于8月 启动货币政策宽松提供了更强依据。澳大利亚统计局周三公布的数据显示，备受关注的剔除极端波动项 后的核心通胀率在第二季度环比上涨0.6%，低于预期的0.7%。同比来看，该指标从第一季度的2.9%回 落至2.7%，符合市场预期。由于政府补贴等因素压低了整体通胀数据，使其难以真实反映经济中的价 格压力，澳洲联储更关注核心通胀指标。此次核心通胀率进一步回落至2.7%，且仅在第一季度就进入 了澳洲联储设定的2%-3%目标区间，表明决策层现在可以将政策重心从抑制通胀逐步转向支持经济增 长。 澳大利亚核心通胀降温，为澳洲联储降息提供有力支持 ...