美国5月CPI数据将在今晚20:30重磅公布，市场预计关税的影响已开始传导至商品价格，恐推高核心通 胀。最终数据是确认美联储"继续等"，还是印证特朗普的"没有通胀"？点击查看更多前瞻... 相关链接 今晚20:30 美国CPI数据搅动市场 ...

欧洲央行行长拉加德：大多数核心通胀数据表明通胀将会稳定在目标水平。 ...

Core Insights - The Bank of Japan's Governor Kazuo Ueda stated that Japan's core inflation is rising due to a combination of post-pandemic economic recovery, a tightening labor market, and supply shocks [1] Group 1 - The increase in core inflation is influenced by the economic recovery following the pandemic [1] - A tightening labor market is contributing to the rise in domestic prices and wage levels [1] - Supply shocks are also impacting the inflationary pressures in Japan [1]

Core Viewpoint - The Governor of the Bank of Japan, Kazuo Ueda, emphasizes the need for cautious evaluation of the impact of rising food prices on core inflation, as the underlying inflation level is now closer to the 2% target compared to a few years ago [1] Group 1 - The current level of underlying inflation is approaching the 2% target, indicating a shift in economic conditions [1] - The Bank of Japan is focusing on the effects of food price increases on core inflation metrics [1]

Core Inflation Outlook - Singapore's core inflation is expected to remain moderate for the remainder of the year, according to a report by DBS Bank's senior economist Chua Han Teng [1] - The expectation reflects DBS Bank's outlook on curbing input inflation and reducing the pass-through of corporate costs to consumer prices [1] - There are anticipated downward risks to Singapore's inflation, aligning with the Monetary Authority of Singapore's moderate assessment [1] Economic Context - A slowdown in global trade may adversely affect Singapore's export-dependent economy, potentially weakening domestic labor demand and wage growth [1]

Group 1 - Japan's core inflation rose at its fastest pace in over two years in April, with the core consumer price index (CPI) increasing by 3.5% year-on-year, surpassing market expectations of 3.4% and up from 3.2% in March, indicating persistent inflation above the Bank of Japan's 2% target for over three years [1][2] - The inflation rate for food accelerated from 6.2% in March to 7.0% in April, driven by significant price increases in various food items, including a 98.6% rise in rice prices and a 31% increase in chocolate prices [2] - The Bank of Japan is expected to consider another interest rate hike by October, despite market skepticism due to the impact of U.S. trade tensions, with a slight majority of economists predicting a 25 basis point increase by year-end [1][3] Group 2 - A separate inflation index, excluding fuel and fresh food, rose by 3.0% year-on-year in April, up from 2.9% in March, indicating strong underlying demand-driven price pressures [2] - Service sector inflation was more subdued at 1.3% in April, down from 1.4% in March, suggesting companies are slow to pass on rising labor costs [2] - The potential for further increases in consumer prices in May is anticipated as the effects of government measures to curb inflation wane, with ongoing global weather patterns and rice supply shortages likely to keep food prices elevated [2]

Core Viewpoint - The Bank of Japan may continue to adjust its policy interest rates while cautiously assessing whether core inflation can stabilize around 2% [1] Group 1 - The Bank of Japan is considering further adjustments to its monetary policy [1] - There is a focus on evaluating core inflation trends and their potential stability [1] - The target for core inflation is set at approximately 2% [1]

Core Insights - The Consumer Price Index (CPI) in Canada decreased from 2.3% in March to 1.7% in April, slightly above market expectations of 1.6% and the Bank of Canada's forecast of 1.5% [1] - The decline in CPI was primarily driven by a significant drop in energy prices, with gasoline prices falling by 18.1% and natural gas prices by 14.1% [1][4] - Core inflation, excluding energy, rose to 2.9% from 2.5% in March, indicating persistent structural inflationary pressures [2][4] Inflation Data Overview - Year-on-year inflation rate: 1.7% (down from 2.3% in March), mainly due to a 12.7% drop in energy prices [1] - Monthly inflation rate: decreased by 0.1%, better than analysts' expectations of a 0.2% decline [1] - Core CPI median increased from 2.8% in March to 3.2%, the highest since March 2024 [3] Structural Inflation Dynamics - CPI excluding extreme values rose from 2.9% to 3.1%, reaching a 13-month high [4] - Food prices in stores increased by 3.8% year-on-year, with fresh beef (+16.2%), coffee and tea (+13.4%), and fresh vegetables (+3.7%) being significant contributors [4] - Restaurant food prices rose by 3.6%, reflecting persistent inflation in the service sector [4] Tourism and Service Prices - Travel prices increased by 6.7% year-on-year, rebounding by 3.7% month-on-month, indicating a seasonal demand recovery [5] Policy Implications - The Bank of Canada has paused its interest rate cuts, with core inflation becoming a focal point ahead of the June 4 rate decision [5] - The central bank has cut rates seven times since June 2024 and emphasized the need to act decisively to control inflation if necessary [5] - The impact of tariffs on inflation has been embedded in final prices, with ongoing monitoring of international trade policies [5]

日本央行审议委员中村豊明：食品价格上涨可能影响核心通胀水平，因此必须保持警惕。 ...

墨西哥央行：预测2025年第四季度核心通胀年均水平为3.4%，此前预测为3.3%；预计2026年第四季度 核心通胀年均水平为3.0%，与此前预测持平。 ...