Overview - The core CPI data for June in the US was slightly weaker than expected, but the inflation effects of tariffs are becoming more evident [3][7][38] - The June CPI year-on-year was 2.7%, slightly above the market expectation of 2.6%, while the core CPI was 2.9%, matching expectations [3][38] - The market reacted to the data with a temporary decline in the 10Y Treasury yield and the US dollar index, which later recovered, indicating a focus on future inflation expectations [11][38] Structure - The main drivers of the CPI rebound include rising oil prices, core goods (excluding new and used cars), and non-rent services [4][39] - The energy CPI for June increased by 0.9% month-on-month, recovering from a previous decline of -1.0%, reflecting global oil price increases [4][39] - Core goods inflation showed signs of warming, with a month-on-month increase of 0.2%, driven by clothing, toys, and audio-visual equipment, indicating the impact of tariffs [20][39] - Rent inflation slightly slowed to 0.2% month-on-month, while core non-rent service inflation rebounded, particularly in medical, transportation, and entertainment services [4][39] Outlook - The second half of the year may see continued upward pressure on inflation, with the third quarter being a critical verification period for tariff inflation effects [5][28][40] - The Federal Reserve is expected to initiate rate cuts in September, with two cuts anticipated within the year, despite potential inflation increases [5][34][40] - The combination of moderate inflation increases and weakening employment may influence the Fed's decision-making [34][40]

Overview - The core CPI data for June in the US was slightly weaker than expected, but the inflation effects of tariffs are becoming more evident. The CPI year-on-year was 2.7%, slightly above the market expectation of 2.6%, while the core CPI was 2.9%, matching expectations. The month-on-month core CPI was 0.2%, below the expected 0.3% [3][38] - The 10-year US Treasury yield and the US dollar index initially fell but later rebounded, indicating market expectations of stronger future inflation [11][38] Structure - The main drivers of the CPI rebound in June were crude oil, core goods (excluding new and used cars), and non-rent services. The energy CPI rose by 0.9% month-on-month, compared to a previous decline of 1.0%, reflecting the increase in global oil prices [4][39] - Core goods inflation showed signs of warming, with the core goods CPI rising by 0.2% month-on-month, indicating the gradual impact of tariffs. However, the CPI for new and used cars remained weak, with used car prices dropping by 0.7% [20][39] - Rent inflation slightly slowed, with a month-on-month increase of 0.2%, down from 0.3% in May. However, core non-rent service inflation rebounded, with medical, transportation, and entertainment services showing month-on-month increases [39][40] Outlook - The second half of the year may see continued upward pressure on US inflation, with the third quarter being a critical verification period for tariff inflation effects. The combination of increased tariff revenues and strong cost-pass-through willingness from US companies may lead to a rise in inflation [5][28] - The Federal Reserve is expected to initiate interest rate cuts in September, with two cuts anticipated within the year, despite the potential for rising inflation in the third quarter [34][40]

智通财经7月16日电，波兰6月核心CPI同比上涨3.4%；符合预期；6月核心CPI环比增长0.3%，符合预 期。 ...

长期以来，市场期待的关税传导效应终于显现。六月，包括家电、服装及娱乐用品在内的核心商品价格出现上涨，这是自二月以来的首次增长。 美银强调，此次报告为关税成本向消费者转移提供了确凿证据。具体来看，家庭用品价格环比增长0.98%，创下自2022年1月以来的最大涨幅；服 装价格上涨0.43%；娱乐商品价格则上涨0.77%。与此同时，核心服务价格却呈现下降趋势，如酒店住宿与机票价格连续数月走低，反映出消费 需求的疲软。 巴克莱银行估计，美国的贸易加权有效关税率已达到14%至15%，远高于去年同期的2.5%，并预测约有50%的关税成本将最终反映在价格上，这 一预测与美联储的调查结果相吻合。 近期，关税的连锁反应逐渐浮出水面，为美国六月的消费者物价指数（CPI）数据增添了一抹复杂色彩。尽管表面数字显示增长略显疲态，但深 入剖析却揭示了数据背后的一系列关键结构性变迁。 六月份，核心CPI环比增长仅0.2%，这一数字略低于市场预期。然而，值得注意的是，核心商品价格出现了自二月以来的首次显著上扬，尤其是 家庭用品与服装等受关税直接影响的产品类别，价格攀升尤为明显。金融界的各大机构纷纷预测，核心个人消费支出平减指数（PCE）的表 ...

关税传导效应已开始显现，美国6月CPI数据在表面疲软背后隐藏着关键的结构性变化。 尽管6月核心CPI月环比仅上涨0.2%（低于预期），但核心商品价格出现自2月以来首次明显上涨，家庭用品、服装等受关税影响的品类价格大幅上涨。各大 投行目前预计核心PCE将显著强于核心CPI，可能达到0.29%-0.34%的月环比涨幅，这将削弱美联储今年降息的理由，强化其维持当前政策立场的决心。 家庭用品价格月环比上涨0.98%，为2022年1月以来最大涨幅； 服装价格上涨0.43%； 娱乐商品价格上涨0.77%； 核心商品上涨的同时，核心服务（比如住宿、机票等）价格下降。其中，酒店住宿价格连续4个月下降，机票价格连续5个月下降。美银表示，从银行的消费 数据和机场安检人数来看，需求正在放缓。 巴克莱估计，美国贸易加权有效关税率为14-15%，远高于去年的2.5%，预计约50%的关税成本将传导至价格，这一假设与美联储调查一致。 表面疲软掩盖结构性变化 6月CPI数据初看温和：核心CPI月环比上涨0.23%，略低于市场预期的0.25%-0.30%，年同比从2.8%升至2.9%。然而，这一表面的疲软掩盖了重要的结构性变 化。 据追风交易 ...

Inflation Data - The core CPI inflation rate in the U.S. rose from 0.13% in May to 0.23% in June, but remained below the market expectation of 0.3%[1] - Overall CPI increased from 0.08% in May to 0.29% in June, meeting market expectations[1] - Year-on-year, the overall CPI inflation rate increased by 0.3 percentage points to 2.7%, while the core CPI rose by 0.1 percentage points to 2.9%[1] Employment Data - Non-farm payrolls increased by 147,000 in June, significantly above the market expectation of 106,000[1] - The unemployment rate unexpectedly fell from 4.244% in May to 4.112% in June[1] - Labor force participation rate declined to 62.3% in June from 62.4% in May, indicating a weakening labor market[1] Tariff Impact - Core commodity prices saw a month-on-month increase from -0.04% in May to 0.2% in June, suggesting the impact of tariffs is beginning to manifest[2] - The inflation rate for clothing rebounded to 0.43% in June from -0.42% in May, likely due to seasonal changes[2] - The anticipated impact of tariffs on inflation is expected to be more pronounced in the July-August data, with core commodity CPI likely to continue rising[3] Federal Reserve Outlook - The June inflation and employment data, combined with renewed tariff concerns, largely eliminate the possibility of a rate cut in July[6] - The Federal Reserve is expected to maintain the current policy rate and continue its wait-and-see approach, with potential rate cuts anticipated in September[6] - If new tariffs are implemented post-August 1, the Fed may delay its rate cut decisions further, but may need to adopt a more aggressive rate-cutting path next year due to the impact on inflation and economic growth[6]

Summary of Conference Call Notes Industry or Company Involved - The discussion primarily revolves around the China-U.S. trade negotiations and their implications for various industries, particularly focusing on strategic resources like rare earth elements and the automotive sector. Core Points and Arguments 1. **China-U.S. Negotiations**: The negotiations in London are expected to yield positive outcomes within a week, particularly concerning rare earth exports and potential easing of technology restrictions [1] 2. **China-Europe Trade Talks**: Recent communications from the Ministry of Commerce suggest that substantial progress may be made in negotiations with Europe, especially in the electric vehicle sector, where Chinese manufacturers are making price commitments to avoid price wars in Europe [2] 3. **Inflation Data**: The National Bureau of Statistics reported a slight decrease in the Consumer Price Index (CPI) by 0.1% and a significant drop in the Producer Price Index (PPI) by 3.3%, indicating economic challenges despite some positive interpretations of the data [3][4] 4. **Core CPI Insights**: Excluding volatile items like oil and food, the core CPI increased by 0.6%, suggesting underlying price stability despite the overall inflation decline [4] 5. **Export Performance**: In May, China's exports showed a surprising increase of 6.3%, despite significant tariffs imposed by the U.S., indicating resilience in the face of trade pressures [5] 6. **Policy Environment**: The policy landscape in June is described as stagnant, with limited new initiatives following the principles established in April, leading to a narrow impact on the market [6] 7. **Price Competition**: The competitive pricing environment, exacerbated by government subsidies, is leading to price wars among companies, which could further compress profit margins [7] 8. **Market Sentiment and Trading Volume**: The trading volume in the Shanghai and Shenzhen markets has rebounded to approximately 1.3 trillion, reflecting improved market sentiment and potential recovery opportunities [8][9] 9. **Brokerage Sector Performance**: The brokerage sector is highlighted as a key player in the market recovery, benefiting from increased trading activity and overall market sentiment [9] 10. **Future Market Outlook**: There is optimism for market performance in June, especially if additional catalysts emerge to boost market temperatures [10] Other Important but Possibly Overlooked Content - The discussion emphasizes the importance of understanding the nuances behind economic data, suggesting that not all declines in inflation indicators are negative and that some sectors may be experiencing improved margins despite overall price pressures [4][5]

Group 1 - The core viewpoint of the articles indicates a decline in silver prices, with the latest closing price at $37.70 per ounce, down 1.13% from the previous day [1] - As of July 15, the silver ETF holdings decreased to 14,856.02 tons, a reduction of 110.22 tons from the previous day, reflecting a bearish sentiment in the market [2] - The recent CPI data showed a month-on-month increase of 0.3% in June, which is the largest rise since January, leading to slight adjustments in market expectations regarding potential interest rate cuts by the Federal Reserve [2][3] Group 2 - Federal Reserve Chairman Jerome Powell's cautious stance on inflation suggests that the Fed may remain careful regarding interest rate cuts, despite the moderate inflation data [3] - The upcoming PPI data is anticipated to provide further market guidance, with potential implications for interest rate expectations and gold prices [3] - The silver market experienced volatility, opening at $38.16, reaching a high of $38.39, and closing at $37.70, indicating a significant downward movement after an initial rise [4]

2025 年 07 月 16 日 商 品 研 究 【基本面跟踪】 铜：国内现货坚挺，支撑价格 季先飞 投资咨询从业资格号：Z0012691 jixianfei@gtht.com 铜基本面数据 | | | 昨日收盘价 | 日涨幅 | 昨日夜盘收盘价 | 夜盘涨幅 | | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | | | 沪铜主力合约 | 78,090 | -0.40% | 78070 | -0.03% | | | 伦铜3M电子盘 | 9,658 | 0.15% | - | - | | | | 昨日成交 | 较前日变动 | 昨日持仓 | 较前日变动 | | 期 货 | 沪铜主力合约 | 81,666 | 2,530 | 169,930 | -2,274 | | | 伦铜3M电子盘 | 14,553 | -6,083 | 279,000 | -1,048 | | | | 昨日期货库存 | 较前日变动 | 注销仓单比 | 较前日变动 | | | 沪铜 | 50,133 | 15,754 | - | - | | | 伦铜 | 110,475 | 850 | 11.43% | -3.05% ...

Group 1: Consumer Price Trends - Consumer prices remained generally stable in the first half of the year, with CPI down 0.1% year-on-year, consistent with the first quarter [2] - In June, CPI turned from decline to an increase of 0.1%, influenced by international commodity price fluctuations and effective domestic demand policies [2] - Core CPI, excluding food and energy, rose 0.4% year-on-year in the first half, with a 0.1 percentage point increase compared to the first quarter [2][4] Group 2: Food Price Dynamics - Food prices decreased by 0.9% year-on-year in the first half, with the decline narrowing by 0.6 percentage points compared to the first quarter [2] - Prices for fresh fruits and aquatic products increased by 2.7% and 0.8%, respectively, contributing approximately 0.08 percentage points to CPI [2] - Pork prices averaged a 3.8% increase in the first half, while beef prices saw a 6.9% decline [2] Group 3: Energy Price Trends - Energy prices fell by 3.2% year-on-year in the first half, with the decline expanding by 2.1 percentage points compared to the first quarter [3] - Gasoline prices dropped by 7.1%, contributing approximately 0.25 percentage points to the CPI decline [3] Group 4: Producer Price Index (PPI) Trends - PPI decreased by 2.8% year-on-year in the first half, with a notable decline of 3.6% by June [5] - International commodity price fluctuations led to a mixed price trend in domestic oil and non-ferrous metal industries [5] - Oil and gas extraction prices averaged a 9.6% decline, while non-ferrous metal smelting prices increased by an average of 6.2% [5] Group 5: Export and Industry Price Pressures - Uncertainties in the global trade environment led to price declines in export-oriented industries, with textiles and metal products down 2.3% year-on-year [6] - Sufficient supply and weak demand contributed to price declines in coal and electricity production, with coal prices down 15.4% [7] Group 6: Policy Impact on Prices - Macro policies have stabilized prices in certain industries, with the price of new energy vehicle manufacturing down 1.6%, a reduction narrower than in the first quarter [7] - Consumer demand policies have led to price increases in discretionary consumption sectors, with prices for arts and crafts up 12.3% [7]