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合成橡胶产业日报-20250918
Rui Da Qi Huo· 2025-09-18 10:03
1. Report Industry Investment Rating - No information provided 2. Core View of the Report - The overall supply of domestic cis - butadiene rubber is sufficient. Under the influence of downstream bargain - hunting purchases, the negotiation focus on the spot side is continuously under pressure. Some industry players expect a certain reduction in the mainstream supply price. This week, both enterprise inventories and sample trading enterprise inventories have decreased slightly. Before the holiday, downstream enterprises have pre - holiday stocking needs, and it is expected that buyers will gradually follow up, and the inventory level is expected to continue to decline. In terms of demand, the capacity utilization rate of domestic tire enterprises has increased slightly this week. Most enterprises maintain their current production schedules to reserve inventory around the long holiday and make up for the previous order gap. The overall capacity utilization rate will mainly fluctuate slightly. The short - term price of the BR2511 contract is expected to fluctuate in the range of 11,250 - 11,700 [2] 3. Summary According to Relevant Catalogues 3.1 Futures Market - The closing price of the main contract for synthetic rubber is 11,415 yuan/ton, a decrease of 175 yuan; the position volume of the main contract is 74,503, an increase of 7,604; the 10 - 11 spread of synthetic rubber is 55 yuan/ton, an increase of 15 yuan; the total warehouse receipt quantity of butadiene rubber is 2,610 tons, a decrease of 360 tons [2] 3.2 Spot Market - The mainstream price of cis - butadiene rubber (BR9000, Qilu Petrochemical) in Shandong is 11,700 yuan/ton; the mainstream price of cis - butadiene rubber (BR9000, Daqing Petrochemical) in Shandong is 11,700 yuan/ton, a decrease of 50 yuan; the mainstream price of cis - butadiene rubber (BR9000, Daqing Petrochemical) in Shanghai is 11,700 yuan/ton; the mainstream price of cis - butadiene rubber (BR9000, Maoming Petrochemical) in Guangdong is 11,850 yuan/ton, an increase of 100 yuan; the basis of synthetic rubber is 235 yuan/ton [2] 3.3 Upstream Situation - The current - week production capacity of butadiene is 151,200 tons/week, with no change; the current - week capacity utilization rate of butadiene is 68.33%, a decrease of 0.12 percentage points; the port inventory of butadiene is 25,600 tons, a decrease of 5,350 tons; the operating rate of Shandong local refinery atmospheric and vacuum distillation units is 50.64%, an increase of 0.54 percentage points; the monthly output of cis - butadiene rubber is 135,700 tons, an increase of 6,500 tons; the current - week capacity utilization rate of cis - butadiene rubber is 73.48%, a decrease of 2.68 percentage points; the current - week production profit of cis - butadiene rubber is - 509 yuan/ton, a decrease of 47 yuan; the social inventory of cis - butadiene rubber is 34,500 tons, an increase of 2,600 tons; the manufacturer inventory of cis - butadiene rubber is 26,300 tons, an increase of 1,650 tons; the trader inventory of cis - butadiene rubber is 8,210 tons, an increase of 950 tons [2] 3.4 Downstream Situation - The operating rate of domestic semi - steel tires is 73.46%, an increase of 5.99 percentage points; the operating rate of domestic all - steel tires is 65.59%, an increase of 5.81 percentage points; the monthly output of all - steel tires is 13.03 million pieces, an increase of 280,000 pieces; the monthly output of semi - steel tires is 58.06 million pieces, an increase of 1.09 million pieces; the inventory days of all - steel tires in Shandong are 38.83 days, a decrease of 0.05 days; the inventory days of semi - steel tires in Shandong are 45.94 days, an increase of 0.09 days [2] 3.5 Industry News - As of September 18, the inventory of domestic cis - butadiene rubber sample enterprises is 33,700 tons, a decrease of 800 tons from the previous period, a month - on - month decrease of 2.29%; as of September 18, the capacity utilization rate of Chinese semi - steel tire sample enterprises is 72.74%, a month - on - month increase of 0.13 percentage points and a year - on - year decrease of 6.92 percentage points; the capacity utilization rate of Chinese all - steel tire sample enterprises is 66.36%, a month - on - month increase of 0.05 percentage points and a year - on - year increase of 6.18 percentage points; in August 2025, the output of Chinese cis - butadiene rubber is 135,700 tons, an increase of 6,500 tons from the previous month, a month - on - month increase of 5.02% and a year - on - year increase of 30.73% [2] 3.6 Key Points of Attention - There is no news today [2]
聚烯烃日报:需求兑现仍缓慢,聚烯烃延续震荡-20250918
Hua Tai Qi Huo· 2025-09-18 03:16
Report Industry Investment Rating - Unilateral: Neutral; Inter - period: 01 - 05 reverse spread; Inter - variety: None [4] Core View - Recently, the cost - end oil price has rebounded, and the external propane price has risen strongly. With the support of macro - sentiment, polyolefins have rebounded slightly with fluctuations. Some upstream petrochemical plants have shut down for maintenance, and the capacity utilization rate has decreased slightly. There is an expectation of new capacity from ExxonMobil, and Daxie Petrochemical is continuously increasing production, so the supply is still under pressure. The downstream demand is in the "Golden September" seasonal improvement stage, with the overall downstream factory operating rate rising slightly. However, the downstream mainly maintains rigid procurement, and the demand fulfillment rate is still slow. PP production profit has shrunk significantly, and the cost - end support is strong [3] Summary by Related Catalogs Market News and Important Data - **Price and Basis**: L main contract closed at 7,245 yuan/ton (+11), PP main contract at 6,982 yuan/ton (+12). LL North China spot was 7,200 yuan/ton (+0), LL East China spot was 7,170 yuan/ton (+0), PP East China spot was 6,780 yuan/ton (+0). LL North China basis was - 45 yuan/ton (-11), LL East China basis was - 75 yuan/ton (-11), and PP East China basis was - 202 yuan/ton (-12) [2] - **Upstream Supply**: PE operating rate was 78.0% (-2.5%), PP operating rate was 76.8% (-3.1%) [2] - **Production Profit**: PE oil - based production profit was 170.9 yuan/ton (-70.8), PP oil - based production profit was - 459.1 yuan/ton (-70.8), and PDH - based PP production profit was - 303.0 yuan/ton (-12.1) [2] - **Import and Export**: LL import profit was - 92.1 yuan/ton (+10.2), PP import profit was - 482.1 yuan/ton (-9.8), and PP export profit was 29.1 US dollars/ton (+1.2) [2] - **Downstream Demand**: PE downstream agricultural film operating rate was 24.1% (+3.9%), PE downstream packaging film operating rate was 51.3% (+0.8%), PP downstream plastic weaving operating rate was 43.1% (+0.4%), and PP downstream BOPP film operating rate was 61.6% (+0.1%) [2] Market Analysis - Cost - end factors and macro - sentiment have driven polyolefins to rebound slightly. Supply is under pressure due to potential new capacity and production increases. Downstream demand is in a seasonal improvement stage, but the demand fulfillment is slow, and PP cost - end support is strong [3] Strategy - Unilateral strategy is neutral; inter - period strategy is 01 - 05 reverse spread; no inter - variety strategy [4]
聚烯烃日报:国际油价走高,支撑聚烯烃反弹-20250916
Hua Tai Qi Huo· 2025-09-16 05:22
Report Industry Investment Rating - Not provided Core Viewpoints - International oil prices rebounded, and propane prices continued to rise, providing cost - side support for a slight rebound in the polyolefin market. Upstream supply is expected to remain at a high level, but there is significant inventory pressure. Downstream demand is in a seasonally improving phase, with overall downstream factory operating rates rising slightly, but the fundamental situation remains weak [3] Summary by Directory 1. Polyolefin Basis Structure - L主力合约收盘价为7232元/吨(+63),PP主力合约收盘价为6966元/吨(+53),LL华北现货为7160元/吨(+10),LL华东现货为7170元/吨(+0),PP华东现货为6800元/吨(+0),LL华北基差为 - 72元/吨(-53),LL华东基差为 - 62元/吨(-63),PP华东基差为 - 166元/吨(-53) [1] 2. Production Profit and Operating Rate - PE开工率为78.0%(-2.5%),PP开工率为76.8%(-3.1%);PE油制生产利润为277.0元/吨(-69.2),PP油制生产利润为 - 333.0元/吨(-69.2),PDH制PP生产利润为 - 271.2元/吨(+64.0) [1] 3. Polyolefin Non - Standard Price Difference - Not provided in the summarized content 4. Polyolefin Import and Export Profits - LL进口利润为 - 101.2元/吨(-22.4),PP进口利润为 - 471.2元/吨(+40.4),PP出口利润为27.7美元/吨(+0.3) [1] 5. Polyolefin Downstream Operating Rates and Downstream Profits - PE下游农膜开工率为24.1%(+3.9%),PE下游包装膜开工率为51.3%(+0.8%),PP下游塑编开工率为43.1%(+0.4%),PP下游BOPP膜开工率为61.6%(+0.1%) [2] 6. Polyolefin Inventory - Upstream and mid - stream inventory pressure is large, but specific inventory data is not provided in the summarized content [3] Strategies - Unilateral: Neutral; - Inter - delivery: 01 - 05 reverse spread; - Inter - variety: Long L - P [4]
聚烯烃日报:需求季节性转换,聚烯烃窄幅波动-20250904
Hua Tai Qi Huo· 2025-09-04 05:40
Report Industry Investment Rating - Not provided Core Viewpoints - The supply side of polyolefins has increased significantly due to the commissioning of new capacity and the increase in the overall operating rate of existing devices. The upstream inventory has shifted downward, with a slight decrease in production enterprise inventory and inventory accumulation in the middle - link, resulting in certain pressure on the supply side. The cost - end support is weak, and the demand side is slowly rising but lacks short - term new orders, with limited upward - driving force [3]. - For trading strategies, a neutral stance is taken for single - side trading; a 01 - 05 reverse spread is recommended for inter - period trading; and going long on the L - P spread is suggested for inter - variety trading [4]. Summary by Directory 1. Polyolefin Basis Structure - The closing price of the L main contract is 7247 yuan/ton (- 5), and the closing price of the PP main contract is 6954 yuan/ton (+ 11). The LL spot price in North China is 7180 yuan/ton (+ 10), in East China is 7170 yuan/ton (+ 0), and the PP spot price in East China is 6830 yuan/ton (- 20). The LL basis in North China is - 67 yuan/ton (+ 15), in East China is - 77 yuan/ton (+ 5), and the PP basis in East China is - 124 yuan/ton (- 31) [1]. 2. Production Profit and Operating Rate - The PE operating rate is 78.7% (+ 0.0%), and the PP operating rate is 80.2% (+ 2.0%). The PE oil - based production profit is 107.1 yuan/ton (- 95.7), the PP oil - based production profit is - 452.9 yuan/ton (- 95.7), and the PDH - based PP production profit is - 151.5 yuan/ton (- 125.4) [1]. 3. Polyolefin Non - Standard Price Spread - Not provided with specific content in the text 4. Polyolefin Import and Export Profit - The LL import profit is - 280.1 yuan/ton (- 20.0), the PP import profit is - 600.1 yuan/ton (- 50.0), and the PP export profit is 32.4 US dollars/ton (+ 6.2) [2]. 5. Polyolefin Downstream Operating Rate and Downstream Profit - The operating rate of PE downstream agricultural film is 17.5% (+ 2.9%), the operating rate of PE downstream packaging film is 49.6% (- 0.3%), the operating rate of PP downstream plastic weaving is 42.3% (+ 0.3%), and the operating rate of PP downstream BOPP film is 60.4% (- 0.3%) [2]. 6. Polyolefin Inventory - The upstream inventory has shifted downward, with a slight decrease in production enterprise inventory and inventory accumulation in the middle - link, indicating certain pressure on the supply side [3].
聚烯烃日报:前期检修装置重启,供应端有增加预期-20250902
Hua Tai Qi Huo· 2025-09-02 05:42
Report Industry Investment Rating - Not provided in the content Core Viewpoints - The polyolefin market shows a narrow - range downward trend. The restart of previously overhauled devices and new capacity releases lead to an obvious increase in supply. The supply side has certain pressure as upstream inventory transfers downstream, with a slight decrease in producers' inventory and an increase in mid - stream inventory. The cost - side support is weak, and the demand side is slowly rising but lacks new orders in the short term, resulting in limited upward - driving force [3] Summary by Directory 1. Polyolefin Basis Structure - The closing price of the L main contract is 7270 yuan/ton (-17), and the closing price of the PP main contract is 6965 yuan/ton (-9). The LL North China spot price is 7180 yuan/ton (-50), the LL East China spot price is 7190 yuan/ton (-110), and the PP East China spot price is 6850 yuan/ton (-50). The LL North China basis is -90 yuan/ton (-33), the LL East China basis is -80 yuan/ton (-93), and the PP East China basis is -115 yuan/ton (-41) [1] 2. Production Profit and Operating Rate - PE operating rate is 78.7% (+0.0%), and PP operating rate is 80.2% (+2.0%). PE oil - based production profit is 315.2 yuan/ton (+17.8), PP oil - based production profit is -324.8 yuan/ton (+17.8), and PDH - based PP production profit is 2.2 yuan/ton (-59.9) [1] 3. Polyolefin Non - Standard Price Difference - Not elaborated in the content 4. Polyolefin Import and Export Profit - LL import profit is -150.0 yuan/ton (-20.6), PP import profit is -550.0 yuan/ton (-50.6), and PP export profit is 26.2 US dollars/ton (+6.3) [2] 5. Polyolefin Downstream Operating Rate and Downstream Profit - PE downstream agricultural film operating rate is 17.5% (+2.9%), PE downstream packaging film operating rate is 49.6% (-0.3%), PP downstream plastic weaving operating rate is 42.3% (+0.3%), and PP downstream BOPP film operating rate is 60.4% (-0.3%) [2] 6. Polyolefin Inventory - Upstream inventory transfers downstream, producers' inventory decreases slightly, and mid - stream inventory accumulates [3] Strategies - Unilateral: Neutral; - Inter - period: 01 - 05 reverse spread; - Inter - variety: Long L - P [4]
纯苯苯乙烯日报:纯苯下游开工再度回落-20250829
Hua Tai Qi Huo· 2025-08-29 05:13
1. Report Industry Investment Rating No information provided. 2. Core View of the Report - The basis of pure benzene at ports has weakened, and the downstream operations of pure benzene have declined to varying degrees. The inventory pressure in the CPL - PA6 - nylon industry chain and the aniline downstream MDI remains high. The pre - peak season (Golden September and Silver October) stocking is below expectations. - For styrene, the port basis rebounded slightly due to end - of - month paper cargo delivery and some traders covering short positions. However, port inventories are continuously accumulating due to high actual operations. If the September styrene maintenance is implemented, it will drag down the demand for pure benzene, and the single - side price will continue to fluctuate weakly. - Among styrene's downstream products, the operations of EPS and ABS have declined again, while PS operations continue to rise. The inventories of the three major hard - plastic products have increased, and the pre - peak season stocking is also below expectations. Styrene production profits are running weakly again [3]. 3. Summary According to Relevant Catalogs 3.1 Pure Benzene and EB's Basis Structure, Inter - Period Spreads - Pure benzene: The main contract basis is - 135 yuan/ton (- 31), and the spot - M2 paper cargo spread is - 50 yuan/ton (+ 0) [1]. - Styrene: The main contract basis is 21 yuan/ton (- 49 yuan/ton) [1]. 3.2 Pure Benzene and Styrene Production Profits, Internal and External Spreads - Pure benzene: The CFR China processing fee is 148 dollars/ton (- 5 dollars/ton), and the FOB Korea processing fee is 132 dollars/ton (- 5 dollars/ton). The US - Korea spread is 51.6 dollars/ton (- 5.0 dollars/ton) [1]. - Styrene: The non - integrated production profit is - 345 yuan/ton (- 15 yuan/ton), and it is expected to gradually shrink [1]. 3.3 Pure Benzene and Styrene Inventories, Operating Rates - Pure benzene: The port inventory is 13.80 million tons (- 0.60 million tons), and the operating rate of downstream products has declined to varying degrees. For example, the caprolactam operating rate is 89.38% (- 2.48%) [1]. - Styrene: The East China port inventory is 179,000 tons (+ 17,500 tons), the East China commercial inventory is 84,000 tons (+ 7,500 tons), and the operating rate is 78.1% (- 0.5%) [1]. 3.4 Styrene Downstream Operating Rates and Production Profits - EPS: The production profit is 337 yuan/ton (+ 0 yuan/ton), and the operating rate is 58.35% (- 2.63%) [2]. - PS: The production profit is - 43 yuan/ton (+ 24 yuan/ton), and the operating rate is 59.90% (+ 2.40%) [2]. - ABS: The production profit is - 115 yuan/ton (+ 18 yuan/ton), and the operating rate is 70.80% (- 0.30%) [2]. 3.5 Pure Benzene Downstream Operating Rates and Production Profits - Caprolactam: The production profit is - 1,710 yuan/ton (+ 50), and the operating rate is 89.38% (- 2.48%) [1]. - Phenol - acetone: The production profit is - 514 yuan/ton (+ 0), and the phenol operating rate is 76.00% (- 2.00%) [1]. - Aniline: The production profit is - 216 yuan/ton (- 12), and the operating rate is 67.55% (- 2.55%) [1]. - Adipic acid: The production profit is - 1,164 yuan/ton (+ 45), and the operating rate is 63.20% (- 2.30%) [1].
LPG早报-20250829
Yong An Qi Huo· 2025-08-29 02:25
Report Summary 1) Report Industry Investment Rating - No investment rating information is provided in the report. 2) Core Viewpoints - The PG futures price fluctuated and strengthened, mainly due to the rebound of spot prices and the increase in import costs [1]. - The fundamentals show that port supply and demand both decreased, inventory remained basically flat, refinery product volume increased by 1.94%, and plant inventories decreased due to the recovery of demand in many places [1]. - The combustion off - season is gradually coming to an end as the temperature begins to drop. The supply of refineries in East China is expected to be limited, and the arrival of ships is expected to decrease. The demand is expected to improve, and the overall situation is expected to be stable [1]. 3) Summary by Related Content Price Data - From August 22 - 28, 2025, the prices of South China LPG, Shandong LPG, Shandong ether - after carbon four, and other products showed certain fluctuations. For example, South China LPG rose from 4490 on August 22 to 4620 on August 28 [1]. - The 09 - 10 month spread was - 600 (- 63), and the 10 - 11 month spread was 77 (- 16) on Thursday. Previously, the 9 - 10 month spread was - 509 (- 38), and the 10 - 11 month spread was 80 (+ 0) [1]. - The basis weakened to 520 (- 19), and the warehouse receipt registration volume was 12887 (- 1) [1]. Market Conditions - The cheapest deliverable was East China civil gas. The supply of refineries in East China was limited, driving prices to be firm, and port prices rose steadily [1]. - FEI and CP fluctuated, PP prices fell, the production profit of FEI and CP for PP weakened, and the CP production cost was lower than that of FEI [1]. - The US - to - Far - East arbitrage window was closed [1]. - The outer - market prices strengthened slightly, the internal - external price difference fluctuated, and the FEI - CP increased to 17 (+ 5.25) [1]. - Freight rates such as US Gulf - Japan and Middle East - Far East decreased [1]. Industry Operation - The PDH operating rate was 75.66% (- 0.67pct), with no shutdown plan next week, but it is expected that the load of multiple units will increase [1]. - The alkylation operating rate was 51.42% (- 0.67pct), and the operating rate is expected to increase next week [1]. - The MTBE operating rate was 63.54% (+ 0.15pct) [1].
纯苯苯乙烯日报:EB基差小幅走强,然而需求跟进仍不及预期-20250828
Hua Tai Qi Huo· 2025-08-28 05:24
1. Report Industry Investment Rating - There is no clear industry investment rating provided in the report. 2. Core Views of the Report - For pure benzene, port inventory is declining slightly from a high level, but the absolute level remains high. The port basis is expected to strengthen further. Korean aromatics plants are under maintenance, and the monthly import pressure is not increasing. However, attention should be paid to the large inventory pressure in the CPL - PA6 - nylon产业链 and the MDI inventory pressure in the aniline downstream. The performance during the "Golden September and Silver October" season for downstream industries should be monitored [3]. - For styrene, the port basis rebounded slightly due to some traders covering short positions at the end of the month. However, port inventory is continuously accumulating due to high current operating rates. There will be more maintenance in September, and the rate of destocking in September should be monitored. This will also drag down the demand for pure benzene, so there is limited support for the single - side price. In the downstream of EB, the operating rates of EPS and PS continue to rise, but their inventories do not show further destocking, indicating slow downstream follow - up. ABS maintains a state of high inventory and low operating rate. The performance during the "Golden September and Silver October" season for downstream industries should be monitored [3]. 3. Summary According to the Directory 3.1 Pure Benzene and EB's Basis Structure and Inter - period Spreads - Pure benzene: The main basis is - 104 yuan/ton (- 3), and the spot - M2 spread is - 45 yuan/ton (- 5 yuan/ton). There are also data on the spread between the first - and third - month contracts [1]. - Styrene: The main basis is 70 yuan/ton (+ 2 yuan/ton), and there are data on the spread between the first - and third - month contracts [1]. 3.2 Production Profits and Internal - External Spreads of Pure Benzene and Styrene - Pure benzene: The CFR China processing fee is 150 dollars/ton (- 9 dollars/ton), the FOB Korea processing fee is 135 dollars/ton (- 8 dollars/ton), and the US - Korea spread is 45.6 dollars/ton (- 15.1 dollars/ton). There are also data on import profits [1]. - Styrene: The non - integrated production profit is - 326 yuan/ton (- 48 yuan/ton), and there are data on import profits [1]. 3.3 Inventories and Operating Rates of Pure Benzene and Styrene - Pure benzene: The port inventory is 13.80 million tons (- 0.60 million tons), and the operating rate is not specifically mentioned in the text, but the downstream comprehensive operating rate is relatively high [1]. - Styrene: The East China port inventory is 179,000 tons (+ 17,500 tons), the East China commercial inventory is 84,000 tons (+ 7,500 tons), and the operating rate is 78.5% (+ 0.4%) [1]. 3.4 Operating Rates and Production Profits of Styrene Downstream - EPS: The production profit is 282 yuan/ton (+ 84 yuan/ton), and the operating rate is 60.98% (+ 2.90%) [2]. - PS: The production profit is - 68 yuan/ton (+ 34 yuan/ton), and the operating rate is 57.50% (+ 1.10%) [2]. - ABS: The production profit is - 132 yuan/ton (+ 88 yuan/ton), and the operating rate is 71.10% (+ 0.00%) [2]. 3.5 Operating Rates and Production Profits of Pure Benzene Downstream - Caprolactam: The production profit is - 1760 yuan/ton (+ 45), and the operating rate is 91.86% (- 1.86%) [1]. - Phenol - acetone: The production profit is - 514 yuan/ton (+ 113), and the operating rate is 78.00% (+ 1.00%) [1]. - Aniline: The production profit is - 204 yuan/ton (- 43), and the operating rate is 70.10% (- 1.47%) [1]. - Adipic acid: The production profit is - 1209 yuan/ton (+ 41), and the operating rate is 65.50% (+ 3.80%) [1]. 3.6 Strategies - Single - side: Hold a wait - and - see attitude towards pure benzene and styrene. - Basis and inter - period: Hold a wait - and - see attitude. - Cross - variety: Expand the EB - BZ spread on dips in the short term [4].
LPG早报-20250826
Yong An Qi Huo· 2025-08-26 14:23
Report Summary 1. Report Industry Investment Rating - Not provided in the given content 2. Core View of the Report - PG futures prices fluctuated and strengthened, mainly due to the bottom - up rebound of spot prices and the increase in import costs. The basis weakened, and the spreads between different contract months changed. The warehouse receipt registration volume decreased slightly. The external market prices strengthened slightly, and the internal - external price spreads fluctuated. The fundamentals showed that port supply and demand both decreased, and inventory was basically flat. Refinery production increased, but factory inventories decreased due to increased demand. The operating rates of PDH, alkylation, and MTBE changed to different extents, and the production profits of related products also showed different trends [1] 3. Summary by Relevant Catalogs Daily Data - From August 19 - 25, 2025, prices of South China LPG, East China LPG, Shandong LPG, etc. showed different degrees of change. For example, on August 25, South China LPG was 4545, with a daily increase of 55; East China LPG was 4402, with a daily increase of 4; Shandong LPG was 4540, with a daily increase of 30. The 09 - 10 month spread was - 587 (- 78), and the 10 - 11 month spread was 82 (+ 2). The cheapest deliverable on Monday was East China civil LPG at 4402. FEI, CP, and PP prices rose, and the production profits of FEI and CP for PP production fluctuated [1] Weekly View - PG futures prices fluctuated and strengthened. The cheapest deliverable was East China civil LPG at 4398. The basis weakened to 520 (- 19), the 9 - 10 month spread was - 509 (- 38), and the 10 - 11 month spread was 80 (+ 0). The warehouse receipt registration volume was 12887 (- 1). External market prices strengthened slightly, and internal - external price spreads fluctuated. The freight rates from the US Gulf to Japan and the Middle East to the Far East decreased. The naphtha crack spread strengthened slightly. The production profits of related products such as PDH - made propylene, alkylation oil, etc. changed to different extents. Fundamentally, port supply and demand both decreased, inventory was basically flat, refinery production increased by 1.94%, and factory inventories decreased. The PDH operating rate was 75.66% (- 0.67pct), and the alkylation operating rate was 51.42% (- 0.67pct) [1]
成本支撑走强,聚烯烃小幅走高
Hua Tai Qi Huo· 2025-08-26 05:17
Report Summary 1. Report Industry Investment Rating - Unilateral: Neutral; Inter - period: None; Inter - variety: None [3] 2. Core Viewpoints - International oil prices rebounded, strengthening the cost support of oil - based production. Propane prices rose slightly, and the profit of PDH - made PP was near the break - even point. The number of PE shutdown and maintenance devices increased, slightly alleviating the supply pressure. However, the overall current operation was still at a relatively high level, with inventory accumulation in production enterprises and certain de - stocking pressure upstream. The PP operation rate was flat month - on - month, and the inventory in the upstream and mid - stream links decreased slightly. The new 900,000 - ton/year Phase II device of Daxie Petrochemical started trial operation, and it was expected to produce qualified products soon. The continuous release of new production capacity would bring greater supply pressure in the long - term. The recovery of downstream demand was slow. The agricultural film entered the seasonal demand conversion stage, with the overall order follow - up slow and the terminal operation recovering slightly [2] 3. Summary According to the Directory a. Polyolefin Basis Structure - The closing price of the L main contract was 7,423 yuan/ton (+43), and the closing price of the PP main contract was 7,074 yuan/ton (+36). The LL North China spot price was 7,270 yuan/ton (+0), the LL East China spot price was 7,320 yuan/ton (+0), and the PP East China spot price was 6,980 yuan/ton (+0). The LL North China basis was - 153 yuan/ton (-43), the LL East China basis was - 103 yuan/ton (-43), and the PP East China basis was - 94 yuan/ton (-36) [1] b. Production Profit and Operation Rate - The PE operation rate was 78.7% (-5.5%), and the PP operation rate was 78.2% (+0.3%). The PE oil - based production profit was 332.5 yuan/ton (+17.9), the PP oil - based production profit was - 247.5 yuan/ton (+17.9), and the PDH - made PP production profit was 88.2 yuan/ton (+12.0) [1] c. Polyolefin Non - standard Price Difference - Not elaborated in the provided text d. Polyolefin Import and Export Profit - The LL import profit was - 44.2 yuan/ton (+23.4), the PP import profit was - 556.9 yuan/ton (+3.4), and the PP export profit was 36.6 US dollars/ton (-0.4) [1] e. Polyolefin Downstream Operation and Downstream Profit - The PE downstream agricultural film operation rate was 14.5% (+0.7%), the PE downstream packaging film operation rate was 49.9% (+0.8%), the PP downstream plastic braiding operation rate was 42.0% (+0.6%), and the PP downstream BOPP film operation rate was 60.7% (-0.5%) [1] f. Polyolefin Inventory - PE shutdown and maintenance devices increased, slightly alleviating the supply pressure, but the overall current operation was still at a relatively high level, with inventory accumulation in production enterprises and certain de - stocking pressure upstream. The PP operation rate was flat month - on - month, and the inventory in the upstream and mid - stream links decreased slightly [2]