Report Summary 1) Report Industry Investment Rating No investment rating information is provided in the report. 2) Core View of the Report - Last week, the overall civil gas market was weak. Shandong's civil gas rose due to chemical demand support, while ether - after carbon four declined. The cheapest deliverable was East China civil gas at 4449. The PG futures market oscillated and trended stronger. The basis of the 07 contract weakened to 351, and the monthly spread strengthened significantly. Externally, FEI and MB were basically flat, CP declined, and the oil - gas ratio increased. The internal - external price difference strengthened, especially PG - CP. The US - Asia arbitrage window closed, and freight rates rose slightly. [1] - In terms of inter - variety spreads, the production margin of PDH improved but remained poor. The production profit of FEI was higher than that of PP. The profitability of alkylated oil increased, the profit of gas fractionation and etherification changed little, and the profit of isomerization and etherification increased. FEI - MOPJ decreased, and the naphtha crack spread changed little. [1] - Fundamentally, port inventories increased slightly, and terminals actively offered discounts. Factory inventories increased, and Shandong's factory inventories decreased due to chemical demand support. Arrivals increased (mainly in South China), and external sales increased significantly. It is expected that external sales will continue to increase and arrivals will decline. Chemical demand is expected to be supported in the short term. The PDH operating rate was basically flat and is expected to increase next week (the first - phase PDH of Qingdao Jinneng may resume). Subsequently, the demand for alkylated oil is expected to increase with the recovery of gasoline demand. Next week, several MTBE plants have plans to start production, so the demand for C4 is expected to increase. With rising temperatures, combustion demand is expected to decline. In addition, the number of registered warrants decreased by 565 to 9304 lots. Overall, the fundamentals remain weak. Shandong's chemical demand provides some support, but there is significant supply pressure in other regions and demand continues to be sluggish. [1] 3) Summary by Relevant Directory Daily Changes - In the civil gas market, Shandong remained stable at 4620, East China at 4492, and South China at 4630. Ether - after carbon four remained stable at 4830. The cheapest deliverable was East China civil gas at 4492. The PP price increased, while the profit of PP production from FEI and CP decreased. The PG futures market oscillated and trended upward. The basis of the 07 contract decreased by 11 to 351, and the 07 - 09 monthly spread decreased by 9 to 201. The US - Far East arbitrage window closed. [1] - The daily changes in prices are as follows: propane CFR South China increased by 2 to 595, propane CIF Japan increased by 7 to 561, MB propane spot increased by 1 to 78, CP forecast contract price increased by 4 to 587, and alkylated oil in Shandong increased by 30 to 7750. The paper import profit decreased by 4 to - 268, and the main basis decreased by 11. Other prices remained stable. [1] Weekly View - Last week, the civil gas market was generally weak. Shandong's civil gas rose due to chemical demand support, while ether - after carbon four declined. The PG futures market oscillated and trended stronger. The basis of the 07 contract weakened, and the monthly spread strengthened significantly. Externally, FEI and MB were basically flat, CP declined, and the oil - gas ratio increased. The internal - external price difference strengthened, especially PG - CP. The US - Asia arbitrage window closed, and freight rates rose slightly. [1] - In terms of inter - variety spreads, the production margin of PDH improved but remained poor. The production profit of FEI was higher than that of PP. The profitability of alkylated oil increased, the profit of gas fractionation and etherification changed little, and the profit of isomerization and etherification increased. FEI - MOPJ decreased, and the naphtha crack spread changed little. [1] - Fundamentally, port inventories increased slightly, and terminals actively offered discounts. Factory inventories increased, and Shandong's factory inventories decreased due to chemical demand support. Arrivals increased (mainly in South China), and external sales increased significantly. It is expected that external sales will continue to increase and arrivals will decline. Chemical demand is expected to be supported in the short term. The PDH operating rate was basically flat and is expected to increase next week (the first - phase PDH of Qingdao Jinneng may resume). Subsequently, the demand for alkylated oil is expected to increase with the recovery of gasoline demand. Next week, several MTBE plants have plans to start production, so the demand for C4 is expected to increase. With rising temperatures, combustion demand is expected to decline. In addition, the number of registered warrants decreased by 565 to 9304 lots. Overall, the fundamentals remain weak. Shandong's chemical demand provides some support, but there is significant supply pressure in other regions and demand continues to be sluggish. [1]

Report Industry Investment Rating No information provided Core View of the Report The supply of polyolefins is under pressure due to the expected restart of multiple previously shut - down plants and the ramp - up of new production capacities. The cost support for polyolefins has increased with the rising international crude oil prices. The propane price has been weakening, leading to a slight increase in the start - up rate of PDH - based PP production. It is the traditional off - season for polyolefin downstream demand, with the agricultural film start - up rate continuing to decline and other terminal start - up rates being weakly volatile. Terminal factories have low enthusiasm for raw material procurement, mainly making rigid - demand purchases. The inventories of upstream factories and traders are being slowly depleted. The strategy for plastics is to be cautiously bearish on the single - side, and there is no strategy for the inter - period [1][3][4] Summary According to Relevant Catalogs 1. Polyolefin Basis Structure The L main contract closed at 7106 yuan/ton (+28), the PP main contract closed at 6941 yuan/ton (+9), the LL spot price in North China was 7140 yuan/ton (+50), the LL spot price in East China was 7120 yuan/ton (+20), the PP spot price in East China was 7080 yuan/ton (+10), the LL basis in North China was 34 yuan/ton (+22), the LL basis in East China was 14 yuan/ton (-8), and the PP basis in East China was 139 yuan/ton (+1) [2] 2. Production Profit and Start - up Rate The PE start - up rate was 77.4% (+0.6%), the PP start - up rate was 77.0% (+1.6%). The PE oil - based production profit was 159.4 yuan/ton (-47.7), the PP oil - based production profit was - 110.6 yuan/ton (-47.7), and the PDH - based PP production profit was - 122.1 yuan/ton (+42.8) [2] 3. Polyolefin Non - standard Price Difference No specific data and analysis provided in the content 4. Polyolefin Import and Export Profits The LL import profit was - 310.6 yuan/ton (+9.4), the PP import profit was - 475.4 yuan/ton (-15.3), and the PP export profit was 16.5 US dollars/ton (+1.9) [2] 5. Polyolefin Downstream Start - up and Downstream Profits The PE downstream agricultural film start - up rate was 12.9% (-0.1%), the PE downstream packaging film start - up rate was 48.9% (+0.3%), the PP downstream plastic weaving start - up rate was 44.7% (-0.5%), and the PP downstream BOPP film start - up rate was 60.4% (+0.7%). No downstream profit data provided [2] 6. Polyolefin Inventory The upstream factory inventories and trader inventories are being slowly depleted, but no specific inventory data provided [3]

Report Summary 1. Report Industry Investment Rating No information provided. 2. Core Viewpoints - The fundamentals of the LPG market remain weak, with chemical demand in Shandong providing some support, but supply pressures are high and demand remains sluggish in other regions [1]. - It is expected that the external supply will continue to increase and the inbound volume will decline. Chemical demand is expected to be supported in the short - term, with the PDH operating rate expected to increase next week [1]. - As temperatures rise, combustion demand is expected to decline, while gasoline demand recovery is expected to drive up the demand for alkylated oil, and the demand for C4 from MTBE plants is also expected to increase [1]. 3. Summary by Related Catalogs Price Changes - On a daily basis, civil gas prices increased in Shandong (+20 to 4620), East China (+40 to 4491), and South China (+20 to 4590); ether - post carbon four increased by 130 to 4810. The cheapest deliverable is East China civil gas at 4491 [1]. - FEI and CP import costs increased, PP prices rose slightly, and the profits from FEI and CP for PP production increased. The PG futures fluctuated, with the basis of the 07 contract increasing by 37 to 372 and the 07 - 09 spread decreasing by 5 to 203 [1]. Weekly Situation - Last week, civil gas was generally weak, but Shandong rose due to chemical demand support, while ether - post carbon four declined. The cheapest deliverable was East China civil gas at 4449. The PG futures fluctuated strongly, the basis of the 07 contract weakened to 351, and the spread strengthened significantly [1]. - Externally, FEI and MB were basically flat, CP declined, and the oil - gas ratio increased. The internal - external spread strengthened, especially PG - CP. The US - Asia arbitrage window closed, and freight rates rose slightly [1]. Variety Spreads - The production margin of PDH improved but remained poor; the production profit of FEI was higher than that of PP. The profitability of alkylated oil increased, the profit of gas fractionation and etherification changed little, and the profit of isomerization and etherification increased. FEI - MOPJ decreased, and the naphtha crack spread changed little [1]. Fundamental Situation - Port inventories increased slightly, and terminals actively offered discounts. Factory inventories increased, and Shandong factory inventories decreased due to chemical demand support. Arrivals increased (mainly in South China), and external supply increased significantly [1]. - Chemical demand is expected to be supported in the short - term, with the PDH operating rate basically flat and expected to increase next week. The demand for alkylated oil is expected to increase with the recovery of gasoline demand, and the demand for C4 from MTBE plants is expected to increase next week [1]. - As temperatures rise, combustion demand is expected to decline. In addition, the number of registered warrants is 9304 lots (-565) [1].

Group 1: Report Industry Investment Rating - Not provided Group 2: Core Viewpoints - The fundamentals of LPG remain weak, with chemical demand in Shandong providing some support, but supply pressure is high in other regions and demand continues to be sluggish [1] - It is expected that the external sales volume will continue to increase and the inbound volume will decline. Chemical demand is expected to be supported in the short - term, and the PDH operating rate is expected to increase next week [1] - As the temperature rises, the combustion demand is expected to decline [1] Group 3: Summary by Relevant Content Market Price Changes - From May 30, 2025, to June 6, 2025, the prices of South China LPG decreased by 50 to 4550, East China LPG decreased by 12 to 4449, and Shandong LPG increased by 10 to 4590. The price of ether - after carbon four in Shandong decreased by 60 to 4580. The cheapest deliverable is East China civil LPG at 4449 [1] - The 07 contract basis of PG decreased by 21 to 351, and the 07 - 09 spread increased by 5 to 185 [1] External Market Conditions - FEI and MB are basically the same, CP is declining, and the oil - gas ratio is rising. The internal - external price difference is strengthening, especially PG - CP. The US - Asia arbitrage window is closed, and the freight rate has a slight increase [1] Variety Spread and Profit Conditions - The production margin of PDH has improved but is still poor. The production profit of FEI is higher than that of PP. The profit of alkylated oil has increased, the profit change of gas - fraction etherification is small, and the profit of isomeric etherification has increased. FEI - MOPJ has declined, and the naphtha crack spread has little change [1] Fundamental Conditions - Port inventory has slightly increased, and docks are more active in reducing prices. Factory inventory has increased, and the factory inventory in Shandong has decreased due to chemical demand support. The arrival volume has increased (mainly in South China), and the external sales volume has increased significantly [1]

Report Summary 1. Report Industry Investment Rating - Not provided in the given content 2. Core View of the Report - The fundamentals of the LPG market are expected to be weak overall, with expected supply growth, increased chemical demand, and weak combustion demand [1] 3. Summary According to Relevant Catalogs 3.1 Price Changes - On Wednesday, for civil gas, prices in Shandong increased by 20 to 4490, in East China decreased by 9 to 4517, and in South China decreased by 20 to 4800; ether - post carbon four remained stable at 4740; the cheapest deliverable was Shandong civil gas at 4490 [1] - The CP import cost increased, PP remained flat, and PP production profit decreased. The PG futures market was strong, the basis of the 06 contract slightly strengthened to 413, the 06 - 07 monthly spread increased by 27 to 95, and the 07 - 09 monthly spread increased by 16 to 159 [1] - The price of civil gas decreased significantly, ether - post carbon four rebounded, and the cheapest deliverable was Shandong civil gas at 4480. The PG futures market declined due to weak spot prices. The basis of the 06 contract was 385 (+139), the 06 - 07 monthly spread was 54 (-27), and the 07 - 08 monthly spread was 61 (-15) [1] - In the external market, FEI and MB decreased, CP increased, and the oil - gas ratio fluctuated; the internal - external price difference decreased significantly, and FEI - MOPJ decreased slightly; the freight rates from the US Gulf to Japan and from the Middle East to the Far East decreased [1] 3.2 Supply and Demand - Supply: The arrival of goods decreased significantly, exports were sluggish, and overall port inventories decreased; factory inventories were basically flat. The commodity volume increased slightly and is expected to continue to increase, and the expected arrival of goods is also expected to increase [1] - Demand: The PDH operating rate rebounded to 61.15% (+3.17pct), production margins declined, and the PDH operating rate is expected to continue to rise next week; the alkylation operating rate and commodity volume remained flat, profitability declined significantly to - 40.5 (-308), and the operating rate is expected to increase slightly next week; the MTBE price generally decreased by 50 - 150 yuan/ton, MTBE production was basically flat, the profits of gas - fractionation etherification and isomerization etherification declined. The expected MTBE supply will fluctuate slightly, and gasoline demand is difficult to increase, so the price may not fluctuate much. With rising temperatures, combustion demand is expected to decline [1]

Report Investment Rating - No investment rating provided in the report Core Viewpoints - The terminal downstream demand for polyolefins has entered the traditional off - season, with limited market demand, general restocking enthusiasm, mainly rigid - demand procurement, and a cold market trading atmosphere. The supply side continues to increase, and the supply - demand contradiction has not been significantly improved. Currently, the number of PE inventory maintenance devices has increased, alleviating the PE supply side. The previously shut - down PP devices have gradually restarted, and the upstream production inventory of polyolefins has been depleted. It is expected that the future supply will increase. The downstream demand is in the off - season, the agricultural film operating rate is at a low level, the packaging film operating rate fluctuates slightly, and the operating rates of industries such as plastic weaving and BOPP have increased slightly [2] - For the trading strategy, it is recommended to be cautiously bearish on plastics for single - side trading, and there is no strategy for inter - period trading [3] Summary by Directory 1. Polyolefin Basis Structure - The L main contract closed at 6972 yuan/ton (- 35), the PP main contract closed at 6893 yuan/ton (- 3), the LL North China spot was 7080 yuan/ton (- 50), the LL East China spot was 7200 yuan/ton (- 50), the PP East China spot was 7060 yuan/ton (+ 0), the LL North China basis was 108 yuan/ton (- 15), the LL East China basis was 228 yuan/ton (- 15), and the PP East China basis was 167 yuan/ton (+ 3) [1] 2. Production Profit and Operating Rate - The PE operating rate was 78.0% (- 1.4%), and the PP operating rate was 76.8% (+ 0.3%). The PE oil - based production profit was 533.5 yuan/ton (- 10.5), the PP oil - based production profit was 103.5 yuan/ton (- 10.5), and the PDH - based PP production profit was - 363.1 yuan/ton (- 91.3) [1] 3. Polyolefin Non - Standard Price Difference - No relevant data presented in the provided content 4. Polyolefin Import and Export Profits - The LL import profit was - 213.2 yuan/ton (- 64.7), the PP import profit was - 619.4 yuan/ton (- 85.1), and the PP export profit was 23.2 US dollars/ton (+ 10.4) [1] 5. Polyolefin Downstream Operating Rate and Downstream Profits - The PE downstream agricultural film operating rate was 14.1% (- 2.6%), the PE downstream packaging film operating rate was 49.2% (+ 0.5%), the PP downstream plastic weaving operating rate was 45.7% (+ 0.4%), and the PP downstream BOPP film operating rate was 60.2% (+ 0.2%) [1] 6. Polyolefin Inventory - No relevant data presented in the provided content

苯乙烯日报 | 2025-05-16 港口基差回落 苯乙烯观点 市场要闻与重要数据 纯苯方面：纯苯港口库存12.30万吨（+0.30万吨）；纯苯CFR中国加工费186美元/吨（+12美元/吨），纯苯FOB韩国 加工费174美元/吨（+17美元/吨），纯苯美韩价差31.7美元/吨（-22.0美元/吨），仍处于关闭状态。华东纯苯现货-M2 价差-15元/吨（+20元/吨）。 苯乙烯方面：苯乙烯主力基差251元/吨（+7元/吨）；苯乙烯非一体化生产利润331元/吨（-27元/吨），预期逐步压缩。 苯乙烯华东港口库存56700吨（-11800吨），苯乙烯华东商业库存44900吨（-8600吨），处于库存回建阶段。苯乙烯 开工率71.3%（-0.9%）。 下游硬胶方面：EPS生产利润240元/吨（+0元/吨），PS生产利润-210元/吨（-100元/吨），ABS生产利润363元/吨（+747 元/吨）。EPS开工率62.34%（+14.96%），PS开工率57.10%（+0.80%），ABS开工率67.39%（-1.61%），下游开工季 节性低位。 市场分析 苯乙烯方面，恒力苯乙烯装置故障，后续仍有浙石化检修，本周苯乙 ...

Report Industry Investment Rating - Unilateral: Neutral; Inter - period: None [3] Core View - The recent 90 - day tariff suspension agreement between China and the US has continued the positive impact of tariff policies, leading to a continuous increase in the polyolefin futures prices. Propane prices have declined, but the production profit of PDH - made PP remains significantly in the red. Multiple new PDH units have been shut down for maintenance, and the restart time is undetermined. There is an expectation of rising PDH costs in the future. The new facility of Huizhou ExxonMobil has increased production. Among the existing facilities, the number of PE shutdown units has increased, with a slight decrease in the operating rate, while the PP operating rate has increased, resulting in significant supply pressure in the polyolefin market. Polyolefin producers have accumulated large inventories and face great pressure to reduce stocks. Downstream demand is weak, with fewer new orders. The operating rate of the agricultural film industry has seasonally decreased, while the operating rates of other industries are stable, mainly for rigid - demand purchases [2] Summary by Directory 1. Polyolefin Basis Structure - L main contract closed at 7339 yuan/ton (+152), PP main contract at 7193 yuan/ton (+119), LL North China spot at 7400 yuan/ton (+170), LL East China spot at 7400 yuan/ton (+100), PP East China spot at 7250 yuan/ton (+50), LL North China basis at 61 yuan/ton (+18), LL East China basis at 61 yuan/ton (-52), and PP East China basis at 57 yuan/ton (-69) [1] 2. Production Profit and Operating Rate - PE operating rate was 84.1% (-0.8%), PP operating rate was 79.7% (+5.4%). PE oil - based production profit was 374.1 yuan/ton (-42.7), PP oil - based production profit was 34.1 yuan/ton (-42.7), and PDH - made PP production profit was - 266.6 yuan/ton (+163.3) [1] 3. Polyolefin Non - Standard Price Difference - No specific data provided in the text 4. Polyolefin Import and Export Profit - LL import profit was - 95.1 yuan/ton (+92.5), PP import profit was - 238.5 yuan/ton (+62.6), and PP export profit was 18.3 US dollars/ton (-7.7) [1] 5. Polyolefin Downstream Operating Rate and Downstream Profit - PE downstream agricultural film operating rate was 19.4% (-4.0%), PE downstream packaging film operating rate was 47.6% (-0.3%), PP downstream plastic weaving operating rate was 44.8% (-0.2%), and PP downstream BOPP film operating rate was 57.6% (-1.9%) [1] 6. Polyolefin Inventory - Polyolefin producers have significantly accumulated inventories and face great pressure to reduce stocks, but no specific inventory data provided [2]

日报 | 2025-05-07 策略 谨慎做空套保 港口库存回升速率仍慢，基差偏强 甲醇观点 市场要闻与重要数据 内地方面：Q5500鄂尔多斯动力煤430元/吨（-30），内蒙煤制甲醇生产利润765元/吨（+5）；内地甲醇价格方面，内 蒙北线2100元/吨（-55），内蒙北线基差481元/吨（-23），内蒙南线2150元/吨（+0）；山东临沂2380元/吨（-60），鲁 南基差361元/吨（-28）；河南2320元/吨（-65），河南基差301元/吨（-33）；河北2345元/吨（-115），河北基差386元 /吨（-83）。隆众内地工厂库存283350吨（-26250），西北工厂库存171000吨（-7600）；隆众内地工厂待发订单249630 吨（-53045），西北工厂待发订单112800吨（-47000）。 港口方面：太仓甲醇2420元/吨（-23），太仓基差201元/吨（+9），CFR中国268美元/吨（+0），华东进口价差47元/ 吨（+6），常州甲醇2525元/吨；广东甲醇2370元/吨（-45），广东基差151元/吨（-13）。隆众港口总库存537400吨 （+74200），江苏港口库存248 ...

聚烯烃日报 | 2025-05-07 市场分析 价格与基差方面，L主力合约收盘价为6987元/吨（-96），PP主力合约收盘价为6995元/吨（-46），LL华北现货为7320 元/吨（-10），LL华东现货为7330元/吨（-50），PP华东现货为7200元/吨（-80），LL华北基差为333元/吨（+86），LL 华东基差为343元/吨（+46）， PP华东基差为205元/吨（-34）。 上游供应方面，PE开工率为84.4%（+0.6%），PP开工率为74.4%（-1.1%）。 生产利润方面，PE油制生产利润为659.2元/吨（+88.4），PP油制生产利润为319.2元/吨（+88.4），PDH制PP生产利 润为-677.0元/吨（-10.0）。 进出口方面，LL进口利润为-152.3元/吨（+0.0），PP进口利润为-340.1元/吨（-10.0），PP出口利润为20.2美元/吨（+1.2）。 下游需求方面，PE下游农膜开工率为23.4%（-2.7%），PE下游包装膜开工率为47.9%（-1.0%），PP下游塑编开工率 为45.0%（-0.3%），PP下游BOPP膜开工率为61.7%（-0.1%）。 ...