Report Summary 1) Report Industry Investment Rating The report does not provide an overall industry investment rating. 2) Core Views of the Report - The sentiment in the domestic soybean market has improved, with short - term soybean futures prices expected to be oscillating stronger, but the rebound space is restricted by supply pressure [5]. - The international oil price decline has an impact on the entire oil market. The short - term sentiment disturbance in the oil market has increased, and the futures prices of palm oil are expected to be oscillating weaker [7]. 3) Summary by Relevant Catalogs a. Bean Meal (M) - **Price Trend**: The intraday view is oscillating stronger, the mid - term view is oscillating, and the reference view is oscillating stronger [5]. - **Core Logic**: The combined weather themes in North and South American soybean producing areas have boosted the market's bullish sentiment. The rise in US soybean futures prices has lifted the domestic soybean market. Although there is an expectation of improved supply in the domestic market, the linkage between the domestic and foreign markets has been restored. The short - term soybean futures prices are oscillating stronger, but the rebound space is restricted by supply pressure [5]. b. Palm Oil (P) - **Price Trend**: The intraday view is oscillating weaker, the mid - term view is oscillating, and the reference view is oscillating weaker [7]. - **Core Logic**: The decline in international oil prices has affected the entire oil market. Southeast Asian palm oil production and demand are both increasing. Whether the exports of Malaysian palm oil can remain strong determines whether the inventory will continue to accumulate. With the rotation in the oil sector, palm oil will receive indirect support from rapeseed oil. The short - term sentiment disturbance in the oil market has increased, and the futures prices are oscillating weaker [7]. c. Other Related Factors - **For Bean Meal 2509**: The influencing factors include import arrival rhythm, customs clearance inspection, oil refinery operation rhythm, and stocking demand [6]. - **For Soybean Oil 2509**: The influencing factors are US tariff policy, US soybean oil inventory, biodiesel demand, domestic raw material supply rhythm, and oil refinery inventory [6]. - **For Palm 2509**: The influencing factors involve Malaysian palm production and exports, Indonesian exports, tariff policies of major producing countries, domestic arrival and inventory, and substitution demand [6].

二 〇 二 五 年 度 2025 年 5 月 18 日 棕榈油：产地累库风险未完全释放 豆油：美豆油情绪市，谨慎看待上方泡沫 李隽钰 投资咨询从业资格号：Z0021380 lijunyu@gtht.com 报告导读： 上周观点及逻辑： 棕榈油：基本面变化不大，跟随美豆油情绪市单边波动加剧，棕榈油 09 合约周涨 1.24%。 请务必阅读正文之后的免责条款部分 1 期货研究 国 泰 君 安 期 货 研 究 所 期货研究 次受到提振。与此同时，在 RVO 可能即将公布的双重刺激下，美豆油势如破竹，而后泡沫破裂，持续我们 认为的高血压低血糖的走势。美豆油当下最大的利多不在于 RVO 公布数字高低，而在于即将公布前夕的风 险溢价，并可能以此为由进行多轮炒作，但我们认为最终数字公布在 50 亿加仑以上的概率较小，2026 年 原料用量大概率与 2024 年相当。国际油脂供应上暂时关注南美豆油新作上市何时体现报价压力，国际豆 棕价差持续高位、阿根廷豆油进入集中上市季节而当前排船较少，如果 6 月难以保持 50 万吨以上的出口 那么国际豆油将面临一定的卖压，进一步拖累国际油脂价格，而美豆油的上方表现也可能被现实情况抑 制， ...

1. Report Industry Investment Rating No relevant content provided. 2. Core Viewpoints - The MPOB April palm oil supply - demand report is bearish as the significant increase in production led to higher - than - expected ending stocks [21]. - The USDA May supply - demand report is bullish for soybeans as the 24/25 and 25/26 annual US soybean ending stocks are lower than expected [22]. 3. Summary by Directory 01 Overnight Quotes - Overnight, the closing prices and price changes of various futures contracts such as Malaysian palm oil, Brent crude, US crude, US soybeans, etc. are presented. For example, the closing price of Malaysian palm oil 07 (BMD) was 3846.00, with a previous - day decline of 1.61% and an overnight decline of 0.41% [1]. - The latest prices and price changes of currency indices including the US dollar index, RMB, Malaysian ringgit, etc. are also given. For instance, the US dollar index was 100.79, with a decline of 0.25% [1]. 02 Spot Quotes - Spot prices, basis, and basis daily changes of DCE palm oil 2505, DCE soybean oil 2509, and DCE soybean meal 2509 in different regions are provided. For example, the spot price of DCE palm oil 2505 in East China was 8510, with a basis of 460 and no change in basis compared to the previous day [2]. - CNF premiums, premium changes, and CNF quotes for soybean crushing in different regions like the US Gulf, US West, Brazil, and Argentina are listed. For example, the CNF premium in Brazil was 133 cents per bushel, and the CNF quote was 444 dollars per ton [2]. 03 Important Fundamental Information 产区天气 - The future weather outlook (May 20 - 24) for major US soybean - producing states shows higher - than - median precipitation and generally lower temperatures. The weekend in the US Midwest will be dry, and more rainfall may occur next week. Different weather conditions are detailed for the western and eastern regions [3][5]. - Three institutions (AmSpec, ITS, SGS) reported that Malaysian palm oil exports from May 1 - 15 increased compared to the same period last month, with growth rates of 14.21%, 6.63%, and 19.22% respectively [6][7]. - RHB analysts believe that Indonesia's recent increase in the export special tax on crude palm oil (CPO) may support global CPO prices and strengthen its biodiesel policy [7]. - As of the week ending May 13, about 17% of US soybean - growing areas were affected by drought, up from 15% the previous week and 9% last year [7]. - As of the week ending May 8, US soybean, soybean meal, and soybean oil export sales met expectations, with specific changes in export sales, shipments, and new sales for different market years [8][9][10]. - The NOPA reported that US soybean oil inventory in April 2025 was 1.527 billion pounds, and soybean crushing volume was 190.226 million bushels [10]. - The US EPA has submitted a proposed rule to the White House to review the amount of biofuels that refineries must blend into their fuels starting in 2026 [10]. - CONAB predicted that the 2024/25 Brazilian soybean production would reach 168.3418 million tons, with an increase of 14% year - on - year and 0.3% month - on - month [11]. - Anec predicted that from May 11 - 17, Brazilian soybean exports would be 3.9898 million tons, and soybean meal exports would be 627,400 tons [12]. - Ukrainian producers expect soybean prices to rise at the end of May, and they may reduce the sowing area by 12% this year [12]. - The predicted Australian 2025/26 rapeseed production is 6.2 million tons, and future precipitation conditions need to be closely monitored [13]. - The Baltic Dry Index rose to a more - than - one - week high due to the increase in capesize vessel freight rates [13]. Domestic Supply and Demand - On May 15, the total trading volume of soybean oil and palm oil decreased by 70% compared to the previous trading day [15]. - On May 15, the trading volume of soybean meal in major oil mills decreased, and the overall oil mill operating rate increased by 1.13% [15]. - In April 2025, the national industrial feed production increased by 4.2% month - on - month and 9.0% year - on - year, with changes in different types of feed and raw material usage ratios [15]. - On May 15, the "Agricultural Product Wholesale Price 200 Index" and the "Vegetable Basket Product Wholesale Price Index" decreased, and the price of eggs increased by 1.5% [16]. International Macroeconomic Data - The probability of the Fed keeping interest rates unchanged in June is 91.7%, and there are different probabilities for rate cuts in July [17]. - US economic data such as initial jobless claims, industrial output, retail sales, PPI, etc. are presented, with some data meeting expectations and others deviating [17][18]. - The IEA monthly report shows that global oil supply will exceed demand in 2025, and the supply growth forecast is raised [18]. Domestic News - On May 15, the US dollar/yuan exchange rate was raised, and the central bank conducted reverse repurchase operations, resulting in a net withdrawal of funds [20]. 05 Key Information Analysis - The MPOB April palm oil report shows that production, exports, imports, and consumption changed, and the ending stocks increased by 19.37% to 1.866 million tons, higher than expected [21]. - The USDA May soybean report adjusted the 24/25 and 25/26 annual US soybean exports, production, and ending stocks, with the ending stocks lower than expected [22]. 06 Fund Flows - On May 15, 2025, the futures market had a net capital outflow of 28.657 billion yuan, including 4.803 billion yuan from commodity futures and 23.853 billion yuan from stock index futures. Different sectors of commodity futures also had varying capital flows [24][25]. 07 Arbitrage Tracking No relevant content provided.

2025 年 05 月 16 日 品 研 究 豆粕：生柴政策忧虑、美豆收跌，或偏弱震荡 豆一：或跟随豆类品种偏弱震荡 吴光静 投资咨询从业资格号：Z0011992 wuguangjing@gtht.com 【基本面跟踪】 期货研究 商 所 豆粕/豆一基本面数据 | | | 收盘价 （日盘） 涨 跌 | 收盘价 （夜盘） 涨 跌 | | --- | --- | --- | --- | | | DCE豆一2507（元/吨） | 4172 +7（+0.17%） | 4157 -24（-0.57%） | | 期 货 | DCE豆粕2509 （元/吨） | 2923 +25（+0.86%） | 2896 -7（-0.24%） | | | CBOT大豆07（美分/蒲） | 1053.25 -22.75（-2.11%） | | | | CBOT豆粕07（美元/短吨） | 296.3 +4.3（+1.47%） | n a | | | | 豆粕 | （43%） | | | 山东 | 3040～3100， 较昨-30或持平； 21日至5月31日前提货M2509+30， 持平； | 现货基差M2509+120/+140， 较昨持平 ...

饲料养殖产业日报 日度观点 ◆生猪： 产业服务总部 饲料养殖团队 2025-05-16 公司资质 长江期货股份有限公司交易咨询业 务资格：鄂证监期货字[2014]1 号 研究员 5 月 16 日辽宁现货 14.2-14.9 元/公斤，较上一日跌 0.1 元/公斤；河南 14.6-15.2 元/公斤，较上一日跌 0.1 元/公斤；四川 14.2-14.6 元/公斤，较 上一日跌 0.1 元/公斤；广东 14.9-15.4 元/公斤，较上一日稳定。前期二育 强势进场，部分养殖户预计加快出栏节奏，且肥标价差倒挂以及成本提升， 二次育肥进场积极性减弱，后期供应增加。需求端，天气转热，猪肉消费转 淡，且猪价偏高，屠企利润仍亏损，需求增量有限，不过低位二次育肥滚动 进场仍存，整体供需博弈加剧，猪价频繁震荡整理，关注企业出栏节奏、二 育进出情况。中长期来看，能繁母猪存栏 2024 年 5-11 月缓增，生产性能 提升，在疫情平稳情况 下，5-9 月供应呈增加态势，根据仔猪数据，2024 年 11-2025 年 2 月仔猪同比增加，二季度出栏压力仍大，叠加生猪体重偏 高，而上半年消费淡季，在供强需弱格局下， 猪价有下跌风险， ...

国泰君安期货商品研究晨报-农产品 观点与策略 | 棕榈油：压力阶段性释放，寻找下方支撑 | 2 | | --- | --- | | 豆油：美豆油情绪泡沫，油脂风险加剧 | 2 | | 豆粕：生柴政策忧虑、美豆收跌，或偏弱震荡 | 4 | | 豆一：或跟随豆类品种偏弱震荡 | 4 | | 玉米：震荡运行 | 6 | | 白糖：偏弱运行 | 7 | | 棉花：关注整体市场情绪的变化 | 8 | | 鸡蛋：震荡调整 | 10 | | 生猪：博弈持续 | 11 | | 花生：偏强震荡 | 12 | 国 泰 君 安 期 货 研 究 所 请务必阅读正文之后的免责条款部分 1 期货研究 商 品 研 究 2025年05月16日 2025 年 5 月 16 日 国 泰 君 安 期 货 研 究 所 棕榈油：压力阶段性释放，寻找下方支撑 豆油：美豆油情绪泡沫，油脂风险加剧 | | | 【基本面跟踪】 油脂基本面数据 | | | 单 位 | 收盘价 (日盘） | 涨跌幅 | 收盘价 （夜盘） | 涨跌幅 | | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | | | 棕榈油主力 | 元/吨 | 8 ...

期货热点追踪 相关链接 美豆期现货暴跌、美豆油封跌停，生物燃料政策疑虑引发动荡，美国大豆干旱区域较上周扩大，市场传 闻与干旱影响下，未来市场走向究竟怎样？ ...

美国生物燃料政策延期至2031年，美豆期货五连涨创九个月新高！豆粕牛市要来了？ 相关链接 期货热点追踪 ...

盘面来看，受外围油脂走强提振，菜油震荡收涨，总体维持区间震荡，短线参与为主。 数据来源第三方，观点仅供参考。市场有风险，投资需谨慎！ 菜籽系产业日报 2025-05-14 | 项目类别 | 数据指标 | 最新 | 环比 数据指标 | 最新 | 环比 | | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | | | 期货收盘价(活跃合约):菜籽油(日,元/吨) | 9438 | 64 期货收盘价(活跃合约):菜籽粕(日,元/吨) | 2509 | 22 | | 期货市场 | 菜油月间差(9-1):(日,元/吨) | 177 | -29 菜粕月间价差(9-1)(日,元/吨) | 197 | 5 | | | 主力合约持仓量:菜油(日,手) | 316130 | 10690 主力合约持仓量:菜粕(日,手) | 630254 | -7170 | | | 期货前20名持仓:净买单量:菜油(日,手) | 34791 | 47 期货前20名持仓:净买单量:菜粕(日,手) | -39584 | 10578 | | | 仓单数量:菜油(日,张) | 1727 | 1727 仓单数量:菜粕(日,张) | 31 ...

1. Report Industry Investment Rating No relevant content provided. 2. Core Viewpoints of the Report - In April, the domestic oil market was volatile. At the beginning of the month, oils tumbled due to the escalation of the Sino - US trade war. Then, the market panic eased, and the tightening short - term supply supported the prices. However, with the arrival of imported soybeans and the increase in the oil mill operating rate, the prices fell again at the end of the month. The global oilseed supply is expected to remain loose, while the global vegetable oil market shows a supply - tightening expectation [3][22]. 3. Summary by Relevant Catalogs 3.1 Market Review - **Domestic Futures**: In April, domestic soybean oil futures fell nearly 2%, palm oil futures fell nearly 4%, and rapeseed oil futures fluctuated slightly. CBOT soybean futures rose slightly, and Malaysian palm oil futures fell nearly 10% [3]. - **Registration of Warehouse Receipts**: The number of soybean oil warehouse receipts decreased by 553 to 4005, palm oil warehouse receipts remained at 0, and rapeseed oil warehouse receipts decreased by 484 to 1357 [10]. - **Basis of Three Major Oils**: The basis of soybean oil increased by 186 to 440, palm oil increased by 58 to 600, and rapeseed oil increased by 99 to 128 [14]. - **CFTC Managed Fund Net Positions**: As of the week of April 22, the net long positions of CBOT soybeans and soybean oil managed funds increased by 87066 and 99060 respectively compared with the same period last month [17]. - **Soybean Premiums at Major Ports**: As of April 30, 2025, the premium of South American port soybeans decreased by 30 cents/bushel to 145 cents/bushel, and that of the Gulf of Mexico decreased by 10 cents/bushel to 198 cents/bushel [18]. 3.2 Fundamental Analysis 3.2.1 Global Oilseed and Vegetable Oil Supply and Demand - **Global Oilseeds**: In the 2024/25 season, global oilseed production was lowered, trade volume and crushing volume were raised, and ending stocks were increased. The overall supply of oilseeds is expected to remain loose [22]. - **Global Vegetable Oils**: In the 2024/25 season, global vegetable oil production, trade volume, and consumption are all expected to decline, and ending stocks are reduced, showing a supply - tightening expectation [22]. - **Global Three - Major Oils Consumption**: In 2024/25, the biodiesel consumption of the global three - major oils was 53686 thousand tons, slightly lower than the previous month's forecast, with the year - on - year growth rate dropping to 4.25%. The edible consumption was 124759 thousand tons, slightly lower than the previous month's forecast, with the year - on - year growth rate dropping to 4.31% [25]. 3.2.2 Soybean Supply and Demand - **Global Soybeans**: In 2024/25, global soybean production is expected to be slightly lowered, beginning stocks are significantly raised, and ending stocks are increased by 1.06 million tons to 122.5 million tons. The global soybean crushing volume increased by 2 million tons to 354.8 million tons [28]. - **US Soybeans**: As of the 33rd week of the 2024/25 season, the cumulative US soybean exports increased by 12.2% year - on - year, but exports to China decreased by 5.83% year - on - year. In March 2025, US soybean crushing volume decreased by 4.47% year - on - year, and the December soybean oil inventory decreased by 19.07% year - on - year. As of April 28, 2025, the US soybean sowing rate was 18% [32][35][39][42]. - **Brazilian Soybeans**: In March 2025, Brazilian soybean exports were 15.7237 million tons, and the cumulative exports from January to March increased by 3.97% year - on - year. The estimated exports in April were 14.31 million tons [45]. 3.2.3 Rapeseed Supply and Demand - **Global Rapeseed**: In 2024/25, the global rapeseed production is expected to be 85.24 million tons, 451 thousand tons lower than the previous forecast, mainly due to the reduction in Canadian production. The ending stocks are expected to be 9.018 million tons, 60 thousand tons lower than the previous forecast [48]. - **Canadian Rapeseed**: As of the 37th week of the 2024/25 crushing season, the cumulative Canadian rapeseed exports increased by 72% year - on - year, and the commercial inventory decreased by 13.12% year - on - year. As of March 2025, the Canadian rapeseed crushing volume increased by 6.57% year - on - year, and the cumulative exports from January to March increased by 4.36% year - on - year [53][55]. 3.2.4 Palm Oil Supply and Demand - **Global Palm Oil**: In 2024/25, global palm oil production is expected to be 78.229 million tons, 1.3 million tons lower than the previous month's forecast, with the year - on - year growth rate dropping to 3%. Consumption is expected to be 76.953 million tons, 1.215 million tons lower than the previous month's forecast, with a year - on - year growth of 3.17%. Ending stocks are expected to be 14.786 million tons, 52 thousand tons lower than the previous month's forecast [58][59]. - **Malaysian Palm Oil**: In March 2025, Malaysian palm oil production decreased by 0.38% year - on - year, exports decreased by 24.34% year - on - year, and inventory decreased by 8.76% year - on - year [67]. - **Indonesian Palm Oil**: In January 2025, Indonesian palm oil production, exports, and inventory were all lower than the same period last year [71]. 3.2.5 Other Countries' Oil - Related Data - **India**: In March 2025, Indian vegetable oil imports decreased by 15.55% year - on - year, and inventory decreased by 28.03% year - on - year [73]. - **China**: In March 2025, China's soybean imports decreased by 36.77% year - on - year, rapeseed imports decreased by 34.46% year - on - year, rapeseed oil imports increased by 76.88% year - on - year, and palm oil imports increased by 3% year - on - year. As of the 17th week of 2025, the inventory and operating rate of domestic soybean, rapeseed, and palm oil showed different changes [77][82][85][88][93][95][97].