1. Report Industry Investment Rating - No relevant information provided 2. Core Viewpoints - Protein meal: Night trading of soybean and rapeseed meal showed a strong and volatile trend. Brazilian soybean harvesting rate reached 2.3% as of January 17th. Positive Sino - US talks boosted expectations for US soybean exports. The upcoming biofuel policy from the US EPA also lifted demand expectations, leading to a rebound in US soybean futures prices. However, high domestic soybean meal inventories and expected high - yield in South America will continue to pressure prices [3] - Oils and fats: Night trading of oils and fats was strong, with palm oil leading the increase. Malaysia's palm oil exports were strong in January, and production decreased month - on - month. With the reduction of Malaysian palm oil tariffs, future export expectations improved. Malaysian palm oil entered a destocking cycle during the production - reduction season, which supported palm oil prices. The upcoming US biofuel policy details are expected to support soybean oil. Tight rapeseed oil supply will continue to support prices, and short - term oils and fats are expected to remain strongly volatile [3] 3. Summary by Related Catalogs Domestic Futures Market - **Prices and Changes**: The previous day's closing prices of soybean oil, palm oil, and rapeseed oil futures were 8258, 9238, and 9326 respectively. The price changes were 32, 146, and - 19, with percentage changes of 0.39%, 1.61%, and - 3.15% respectively. For soybean meal and rapeseed meal futures, the closing prices were 2766 and 2410, with changes of - 3 and 10, and percentage changes of - 0.11% and 0.42% respectively. The peanut futures price was 8844, with a change of 26 and a percentage change of 0.29% [2] - **Spreads and Ratios**: For example, the Y9 - 1 spread of soybean oil changed from 16 to 22, the P9 - 1 spread of palm oil changed from 42 to 104. The M9 - 1 spread of soybean meal changed from - 47 to - 48, and the RM9 - 1 spread of rapeseed meal changed from 64 to 69. The M - RM09 spread was 566, and the M/RM09 ratio was 1.25 [2] International Futures Market - **Prices and Changes**: The previous day's closing prices of BMD palm oil, CBOT soybeans, CBOT US soybean oil, and CBOT US soybean meal were 4172 ringgit/ton, 1068 cents/bu, 54.40 cents/lb, and 294 dollars/ton respectively. The price changes were 51.0, 7.5, 0.6, and - 0.2, with percentage changes of 1.24%, 0.71%, 1.10%, and - 0.07% respectively [2] Domestic Spot Market - **Prices and Changes**: The spot prices of Tianjin and Guangzhou first - grade soybean oil were 8700 and 8780 respectively, with percentage changes of 0.00% and 0.23%. The spot prices of Zhangjiagang and Guangzhou 24° palm oil were 9170, with a percentage change of 1.55%. The spot prices of Zhangjiagang and Fangchenggang third - grade rapeseed oil were 10130 and 10150, with percentage changes of 1.40% and 0.89% [2] - **Basis and Spreads**: The spot basis for Tianjin and Guangzhou first - grade soybean oil was 442 and 522 respectively. The spot basis for Zhangjiagang and Guangzhou 24° palm oil was - 68. The spot basis for Zhangjiagang and Fangchenggang third - grade rapeseed oil was 804 and 824. The spot spread between Guangzhou first - grade soybean oil and 24° palm oil changed from - 280 to - 260 [2] Import Profit and Pressure - The import profit of near - month Malaysian palm oil was - 184 (previously - 121), near - month US Gulf soybeans was - 184 (previously - 205), near - month Brazilian soybeans was 51 (previously 17), near - month US West soybeans was - 150 (previously - 168), near - month Canadian crude rapeseed oil was 634 (previously 655), and near - month Canadian rapeseed was 509 (previously 484) [2] Warehouse Receipts - The current warehouse receipts for soybean oil, palm oil, and rapeseed oil were 26,210, 948, and 625 respectively. For soybean meal, it was 32,428. For rapeseed meal and peanuts, it was 0. The previous values were 26,525, 1,148, 625, 32,428, 0, and 0 respectively [2] Industry Information - Malaysian palm oil production from January 1 - 25, 2026: The yield per unit decreased by 15.28% month - on - month, the oil extraction rate increased by 0.11% month - on - month, and the production decreased by 14.81% month - on - month. In Argentina, the corn sowing progress was 93.1%, and the soybean sowing progress was 96.2%. The US Department of Agriculture predicted Argentina's corn production at 53 million tons and soybean production at 48.5 million tons [3]

1. Report Industry Investment Rating No information provided in the report. 2. Core Views of the Report - The domestic oil market is constrained by high supply pressure and weak demand, with the core driver still in the overseas market. The core contradictions mainly include the game between palm oil inventory pressure and demand growth in the producing areas, the impact of the US biodiesel policy, the progress of China - Canada trade talks, and the overall sufficient supply of domestic oils [1][2]. - Although the inventory of the three major domestic oils has declined, the overall supply is still sufficient, lacking upward momentum. The demand is weak, suppressing the upward space of the market, but the tight spot - end sentiment and the positive news of the US bio - fuel policy boost the market. It is expected that the short - term oil market will maintain a strong trend, and short - selling is not recommended [2]. 3. Summary by Relevant Catalogs 3.1 Core Contradictions and Strategy Recommendations 3.1.1 Core Contradictions - **Palm oil**: Malaysia has entered the production - reduction season, but the inventory is at a seven - year high. The B50 plan in Indonesia will not be implemented in 2026, and the expansion of the palm oil bio - fuel demand is limited. The price has support but lacks a trend - driving force. It is necessary to wait for the Ramadan stocking demand in India to boost the price [1]. - **US biodiesel policy**: The latest news is that the existing proposal will be maintained, with the blending requirement for 2026 reaching 5.61 billion gallons and the import raw material penalty limit being cancelled, which is beneficial to the global oil market. The final result is expected to be announced in March [1]. - **China - Canada trade**: The China - Canada talks are currently optimistic, and the import tax on Canadian rapeseed is expected to remain at 15%. However, due to Trump's threat to Canada, there are still uncertainties in China - Canada trade, and the short - term supply concern remains [2]. - **Domestic oil supply and demand**: The inventory of the three major domestic oils has declined, but the overall supply is still sufficient. The supply gap is not obvious, but the arrival of oilseeds in the first quarter is limited. It is necessary to pay attention to the customs clearance progress and policies [2]. 3.1.2 Trading Strategy Recommendations - **Trend judgment**: In the short term, there is a rebound trend within the range, and in the medium term, there is still room for palm oil to rise. The price ranges are P2605 [8200 - 9400], Y2605 [7600 - 8300], and OI2605 [8600 - 9500]. Technically, P05 and Y05 are considered to have a strong unilateral trend, and attention should be paid to whether the upper pressure levels can be broken through, but the short - term upward space is limited. Arbitrage can observe the weakening trend of the rapeseed - palm and rapeseed - soybean spreads [17]. - **Basis, monthly spread, and hedging arbitrage strategies**: The current basis is considered to be in a short - term weak and volatile state. There is no monthly spread strategy for now. The soybean - palm spread is expected to weaken [18]. - **Recent strategy review**: Various past strategies, such as going long on P01, P1 - 5 reverse arbitrage, etc., have different results, including stop - loss, stop - profit, and waiting for opportunities [20]. 3.1.3 Industrial Customer Operation Recommendations - **Price range prediction**: The price ranges for monthly prediction are: soybean oil 7600 - 8300, rapeseed oil 8600 - 9500, and palm oil 8200 - 9400. The corresponding 20 - day rolling volatilities are 11.5%, 10.4%, and 20.2%, and the historical percentiles (3 - year) are 2.4%, 0.1%, and 24.1% respectively [21]. - **Hedging strategies**: Different hedging strategies are recommended for traders, refiners, and oil mills according to different scenarios, including short - selling or long - buying soybean oil futures with different hedging ratios [21]. 3.1.4 Basic Data Overview - **Futures and spot prices**: The report provides the latest prices and price changes of palm oil, soybean oil, and rapeseed oil in the futures and spot markets, as well as some related spreads and basis data [22][23]. 3.2 This Week's Important Information and Next Week's Attention Events 3.2.1 This Week's Important Information - **Positive news**: As of January 23, 2026, the commercial inventory of the three major domestic oils decreased slightly to 2 million tons. Argentina is facing drought, which may affect crop yields. Malaysia's palm oil production from January 1 - 20 decreased by 14.43% [25][26]. - **Negative news**: The consulting company AgRural raised the forecast of Brazil's 2025/26 soybean harvest to 181 million tons. Although the rainfall in Argentina is expected to improve the soil moisture in some areas, local drought will still put pressure on soybeans [27]. - **Spot trading information**: The trading volume of rapeseed oil increased significantly last week, while the trading volumes of soybean oil and palm oil were slightly weaker, with palm oil having the weakest trading volume [27]. 3.2.2 Next Week's Important Events to Follow - Domestic high - frequency weekly inventory data, high - frequency production and export data of Malaysian palm oil, and origin weather information [37]. 3.3 Market Interpretation 3.3.1 Price - Volume and Capital Interpretation - **Domestic market**: - **Unilateral trend**: The oil market maintained a strong trend this week. Rapeseed oil rose significantly due to the US bio - fuel boost and changes in China - Canada trade talks. Palm oil also rose due to lack of precipitation in the origin and capital allocation. Soybean oil continued to rise with the oil sector. It is necessary to pay attention to the US bio - energy policy, origin de - stocking progress, and China - Canada trade development [36]. - **Capital movement**: The changes in the key profitable seats of palm oil, soybean oil, and rapeseed oil were generally small. The key seats of soybean oil slightly increased their long positions, while rapeseed oil and palm oil reduced their short positions. Foreign - funded seats generally reduced short positions and increased long positions, showing a strong bullish sentiment [36]. - **Monthly spread structure**: The oil market still shows a Back structure with near - term strength and far - term weakness. The P5 - 9 and Y5 - 9 spreads fluctuated, and the 5 - 9 spread of rapeseed oil rose due to the strength of the 05 contract [39]. - **Basis structure**: The main - contract basis of oils continued to bottom - out and consolidate. The main - contract basis of soybean and palm oil remained weak, while the main - contract basis of rapeseed oil fluctuated more significantly. With the improvement of the China - Canada relationship, the main - contract basis of rapeseed oil gradually weakened [44]. - **Cross - variety spreads**: This week, due to the lack of further information, the cross - variety spreads fluctuated mainly. As palm oil entered the production - reduction season and the supply of rapeseed oil increased, the rapeseed - palm spread was expected to weaken [48]. - **Overseas market**: - **Overseas trend**: The overseas market fluctuated mainly this week. Palm oil became more optimistic due to the production - reduction season in Malaysia, better - than - expected export, and drought signs in the weather. Crude oil strengthened due to geopolitical conflicts, driving US soybean oil to fluctuate strongly, and the cost - performance of international palm oil also improved slightly [50]. - **Capital position**: The net position ratio of managed funds has rebounded, and the bullish sentiment has improved. Speculative funds have increased their long positions. However, the net short - position ratio of commercial positions such as producers and traders is relatively high, and the industrial hedging pressure is huge, which limits the further upward space of prices [52]. 3.4 Valuation and Profit Analysis 3.4.1 Upstream and Downstream Profit Tracking - The POGO spread decreased slightly, and the cost of palm oil - based bio - fuel remained high. The BOHO spread continued to weaken, and the cost of US soybean oil - based bio - fuel remained at a relatively low level in recent years. As the price of US soybeans rebounds, the BOHO spread is expected to strengthen, and the global soybean oil price has room for upward repair [54]. 3.4.2 Import and Export Profit Tracking - The origin's price is firm, and the domestic demand is mainly for rigid needs. The import profit of palm oil remains negative, which restricts long - term ship purchases [56]. 3.5 Supply - Demand and Inventory Deduction 3.5.1 Origin Supply - Demand Balance Sheet Deduction - The MPOB report shows that the production of Malaysian palm oil in December decreased by 5.46% month - on - month, and the export increased by 8.52% month - on - month. The inventory increased by 7.58% month - on - month. The supply pressure is still large, but the better - than - expected export may promote the de - stocking process. The latest high - frequency data shows that the production in January decreased month - on - month, and the export is optimistic. The inventory inflection point may appear in January [58]. 3.5.2 Supply - Side and Deduction - **Palm oil**: In the off - season of demand, the trading volume is difficult to improve. The origin has entered the production - reduction stage, and the willingness to sell is limited. The import profit is inverted, and it is expected that the ship purchases will not increase. It is necessary to wait for the reduction of inventory pressure in the origin [60]. - **Soybean oil**: In the first quarter, the arrival of soybeans is at a seasonal low, and the crushing volume decreases. However, the current inventory pressure is large, and the overall supply is relatively loose. Attention should be paid to the possible short - term supply tension caused by the arrival rhythm [60]. - **Rapeseed oil**: The downstream demand is limited. Although Australian rapeseed has arrived, the quantity is limited. The inventory continues to decrease, and the spot supply is still tight. However, due to the global rapeseed harvest and the recovery of China - Canada trade, the domestic rapeseed oil supply may further increase in the future [60]. 3.5.3 Demand - Side and Deduction - The short - term inventory of the three major oils is still high year - on - year, and the downstream demand is sluggish and lower than the average level. After the Spring Festival stocking, the market boost is limited, and the overall terminal demand for oils is still weak. The market is expected to be dull after the festival [62].

【冠通期货研究报告】 油粕日报：美国 45Z 生物燃料政策加快落地 发布日期：2026 年 1 月 27 日 豆粕：AgRural 公司：截至上周四，巴西 2025/26 年度大豆收割进度已达种 植面积的 4.9%。将巴西 2025/26 年度大豆产量预期上调至 1.81 亿吨，此前预估 为 1.804 亿吨。主要作物产量预期继续小幅上调，若后期天气配合，全球谷物与 油籽供应前景将更为宽松。初期收割与种植进度符合季节性规律，未来市场关注 点将转向单产确认及产区天气变化。USDA 出口检验：截至 2026 年 1 月 22 日的 一周，美国大豆出口检验量为 1,324,408 吨，去年同期为 738,028 吨。2025/26 年度迄今美国大豆出口检验总量达到 20,668,363 吨，同比减少 37.5%。2025/26 年度迄今美国大豆出口达到全年出口目标的 48.2%。 据 Mysteel 对国内主要油厂调查数据显示：2026 年第 4 周，全国主要油厂 大豆库存下降，豆粕库存下降，未执行合同下降。 其中大豆库存 658.99 万吨， 较上周减少 28.34 万吨，减幅 4.12%，同比去年增加 207. ...

| CNF到岸价: | 指标 | | --- | --- | | 名称 | | | | 1、据马来西亚棕榈油协会（MPOA）发布的数据，马来西亚1月1-20日棕榈油产量预估减少 | | --- | --- | | | 14.43%，其中马来半岛减少14.29%，沙巴减少11.12%，沙捞越减少23.21%，婆罗洲减少14.6%。2 | | 行业 | 、据巴西农业部下属的国家商品供应公司CONAB，截至1月24日，巴西大豆播种率为99.1%，上周为 | | 信息 | 98.6%，去年同期为99.2%，五年均值为99%；巴西大豆收割率为6.6%，上周为2.3%，去年同期为 | | | 3.2%，五年均值为7%。 | | | 蛋白粕：夜盘豆菜粕震荡收涨。根据CONAB数据截至1月17日，巴西大豆收割率为2.3%，上周为 | | | 0.6%，去年同期为1.2%，五年均值为3.2%。中美官员积极会谈提振市场对于美豆出口前景的预 | | | 期，同时美国环保署将很快发布关于生物燃料的最终法规，其中包括小型炼油厂豁免政策。生物 | | | 燃料政策即将明朗化提振需求预期，近期美豆期价有所回暖。国内方面，近期连粕跟随外盘有 ...

发布日期：2026 年 1 月 26 日 豆粕：USDA 出口销售：截至 2026 年 1 月 15 日，2025/26 年度迄今美国对华 大豆销售总量（已经装船和尚未装船的销售量）为 942.0 万吨，比去年同期的 2007.1 万吨降低 53.1%，一周前减少 57.7%。2025/26 年度迄今美国大豆销售总 量为 3303 万吨，高于前一周的 3064 万吨，比去同期的 4217 万吨减少 21.7%， 一周前减少 24.7%。 1 月份到港预计在 600-630 万吨，市场对一季度供应仍有担忧：一是一季度 到港进口大豆进入市场的节奏，而是国储大豆拍卖重启后，拍卖大豆的入库、压 榨节奏将影响市场实际供应。而 1 月份进口大豆到港量预计减少，可能会限制油 厂的开机积极性。另一方面，春节前的备货需求会加速豆粕等产品的库存消耗， 从而对压榨形成一定支撑。 【冠通期货研究报告】 油粕日报：美国 45Z 生物燃料政策加快落地 冠通期货 骆利关 执业资格证书编号：F03095187/Z0022441 注：本报告有关现货市场的资讯与行情信息，来源于我的钢铁网、国粮中心、 McDonald Pelz、金十期货网站。 ...

菜籽油期货主力涨超4%，对于后市行情如何，相关机构该如何评价？ 机构 核心观点 南华期货 菜油仍处于去库阶段，基差维持强势 瑞达期货 菜油近期走势弱于豆棕，短期波动加剧 1月26日盘中，菜籽油期货主力合约遭遇一波急速上涨，最高上探至9356.00元。截止发稿，菜籽油主力 合约报9345.00元，涨幅4.08%。 加菜籽新作产量同比大幅增长，全球菜籽供应宽松，美国生物燃料政策提振加菜籽。市场对最终开放加 拿大菜籽进口持乐观态度，目前市场传言已出现加菜籽买船，但现货层面前期澳籽并未开始压榨，菜油 仍处于去库阶段，基差维持强势，后续仍需关注政策动向。 瑞达期货（002961）：菜油近期走势弱于豆棕，短期波动加剧 全球及加拿大菜籽供需格局相对宽松，继续牵制其市场价格。不过，加拿大总理卡尼访问期间与中国签 署了《中国-加拿大经贸合作路线图》，提振加拿大菜籽出口预期，支撑加菜籽市场。其它方面，美国 生柴消息利好，同时，高频数据显示，马棕本月供应端延续减产，且本月前二十日出口明显增加。另 外，印尼撤销28家公司许可证，涉及棕榈油种植园，引发对印棕供应的担忧。国内方面，现阶段油厂继 续处于停机状态，菜油也维持去库模式，对其价 ...

热点栏目 自选股 数据中心 行情中心 资金流向 模拟交易 客户端 行情回顾 上周油脂板块整体偏强震荡但品种间强弱分化明显，棕榈油处于领涨格局，豆油偏强，菜籽油相对偏 弱，整体在区间内运行。油脂板块整体的反弹格局来自于美国生物燃料政策预期乐观的提振。叠加马来 西亚1月上半月产量环比下降，出口环比增长的高频产需数据的边际收紧。但中加贸易关系缓和带来远 期进口增加预期，压制价格，不过现货去库、基差坚挺使得菜油下方形成支撑。截至1月23日当月，豆 油主力合约周涨幅在0.97%左右；棕榈油主力合约周线涨幅2.72%；菜籽油主力合约周线环比小幅收 跌，幅度在0.79%。 二、国际市场重点事件及外围因素影响分析 （一）美生柴政策再现利多预期，成为板块内核心支撑 根据2026年1月中下旬最新消息，美国预计将在3月初敲定2026年生物燃料混合配额，可能将把生物燃料 混合配额大致保持在当前提案的水平，同时美政府正权衡生物基柴油的配额范围在52亿至56亿加仑之 间，而当前提案为56.1亿加仑。即使生物柴油目标从56.1亿加仑微调至52-56亿加仑区间，较2025年33.5 亿加仑的增长幅度仍在55%以上，总体方向维持高增长目标。 ...

| 指标 | CNF到岸价: | | | 申万期货品种策略日报- | | | | | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | | 名称 | 马来西亚棕 榈油:连续 | | 2026/1/26 | 油脂油料 | | | | | | 申银万国期货研究所 | | | | 李霁月（从业编号:F03119649；交易咨询号:Z0019570） | | | | | | | | lijy@sywgqh.com.cn | | | | | | | 豆油主力 | 棕榈油主力 | 菜油主力 | 豆粕主力 | 菜粕主力 | 花生主力 | | | 前日收盘价 | 8094 | 8910 | 8991 | 2751 | 2367 | 8844 | | 国 | 涨跌 | 10 | -34 | -11 | -17 | -29 | 26 | | 内 | 涨跌幅(%) | 0.12% | -0.38% | -3.15% | -0.61% | -1.21% | 0.29% | | 期 | 价差 | Y9-1 | P9-1 | OI9-1 | Y-P09 | OI-Y09 | OI-P09 | ...

Report Industry Investment Rating No relevant content provided. Core Viewpoints of the Report - The improvement of palm oil's fundamentals is slow, but there are almost no new potential negative news. Before the Spring Festival, there is a tendency to trade on unfalsifiable topics with the arrival of cold snaps. There is still room for a rise of a couple of hundred points. The bullish sentiment for palm oil in the first quarter is strong, and one can follow the trend in the short - term, while being aware of the risk of a pullback when the price reaches 9200 - 9400 [2][4][6]. - The US is expected to finalize the 2026 biofuel blending quota in early March. The news implies a possible increase in the RVO level, which is positive for US soybean oil. US soybean oil has the potential to reach 56 cents. Domestic soybean oil is currently running stronger along with palm oil and crude oil, with a bullish trading idea for the oil - meal ratio [5][6]. Summary by Relevant Catalogs 1. Last Week's View and Logic - **Palm Oil**: After the MPOB report at the beginning of the month confirmed negative factors and the B50 risk emerged, there were almost no new negative factors in the fundamentals. With the approaching implementation of the US biodiesel policy, frequent speculation topics such as Indonesia and India's tax increases, and the rise in crude oil prices driven by cold snaps and geopolitical issues, Malaysia gradually realized a production cut in January. The seasonal bullish sentiment for palm oil was high, and the palm oil 05 contract rose 3.39% last week [1]. - **Soybean Oil**: There was a lack of South American weather speculation, and the upward driving force for US soybeans was limited. It mainly followed the upward movement of the oil sector. At the same time, the bullish trading idea for the oil - meal ratio was strengthened, and the soybean oil 05 contract rose 1.45% last week [1]. 2. This Week's View and Logic Palm Oil - Although the price increase when there is an import profit for China implies no actual improvement in the fundamentals, there are almost no new potential negative news. Before the Spring Festival, trading on unfalsifiable topics with the arrival of cold snaps is a common strategy. The market has fully priced in Malaysia's high - inventory situation. New trend - setting negative factors would require the production in January - February to remain above 160 and 150 tons respectively. However, with the SPPOMA still showing a 16% production cut in January and the ITS showing an 11% increase in exports in the first 20 days, the inventory in January is expected to return to around 2.8 million tons. So, the market has returned to the normal trading strategy of buying on dips during the production - cut season [2]. - If the month - on - month production cut in January is less than 10%, the annual production in 2026 may increase by 100,000 tons per month on a regular basis, releasing continuous supply pressure. Therefore, when the long - term direction is unclear, short - term operations following the news are recommended [2]. - The biggest variable this year is Indonesia. The Indonesian government claims that B50 may not be promoted this year, with the main goal being to fully implement B40. The early implementation of B50 largely depends on technology and the POGO level. There is an underlying logic for the POGO spread to shrink to $250/ton, but the spread may not return until energy prices fall [2]. - Recently, the price difference between India and Malaysia has rapidly shrunk, the price of fruit bunches in North Sumatra has rebounded, and the refining profit in Indonesia has remained high, indicating an improved willingness to sell in Indonesia, but it is not clear whether the selling pressure is high. The bottom - building rhythm is still dominated by Malaysia. In the sales area, India's CPO import profit has recently recovered, and the international soybean - palm oil price difference has fallen. Before the Argentine soybean oil is available in May, palm oil is still the preferred oil, and Malaysia's exports are expected to remain high [2]. Soybean Oil - Reuters reported that the Trump administration is actively promoting the 2026 biofuel policy, expected to finalize the 2026 biofuel blending quota in early March, considering setting the volume range of D4 biodiesel between 5.2 - 5.6 billion gallons and abandoning the plan to penalize the import of renewable fuels and their raw materials. As the policy implementation deadline approaches, even if the expectation of abandoning the penalty on raw material imports is realized, it will have no negative impact on US soybean oil. The news implies a possible increase in the RVO level, which is positive for US soybean oil, with the expected annual industrial demand for US soybean oil rising from 7 million tons to 8 - 9 million tons. US soybean oil has the potential to reach 56 cents, but one should be aware that the EPA's news may change [5]. - As of this week, the growth of Brazilian soybeans is generally good, and the production outlook is positive. The core production areas in Argentina are relatively dry, and attention should be paid to the later rainfall forecast. The positive outlook for South American soybeans has put strong pressure on the US soybean market. If Argentina does not experience a drought later, the CBOT soybean in January is unlikely to rebound significantly, and it is expected to fluctuate and stabilize. China's customs may accelerate the release of imported soybeans in the first quarter, and the auction of state - reserve imported soybeans is progressing well, weakening the sentiment for the monthly spread. However, there may be a shortage of soybean arrivals in March - April, which may support the domestic soybean spot and monthly spread to fluctuate stronger [5]. 3. Disk Basic Market Data - **Futures Price and Volume**: The palm oil main - continuous contract closed at 8,910 yuan/ton, up 3.39%; the soybean oil main - continuous contract closed at 8,094 yuan/ton, up 1.45%; the rapeseed oil main - continuous contract closed at 8,991 yuan/ton, down 0.52%. The trading volume of palm oil decreased by 575,629 lots, and the open interest increased by 61,137 lots; the trading volume of soybean oil decreased by 247,658 lots, and the open interest increased by 49,094 lots; the trading volume of rapeseed oil decreased by 291,357 lots, and the open interest decreased by 7,746 lots [9]. - **Price Difference**: The rapeseed - soybean 05 spread was 897 yuan/ton, down 14.33%; the soybean - palm 05 spread was - 816 yuan/ton, down 24.01%; the palm oil 5 - 9 spread was 38 yuan/ton, up 216.67%; the soybean oil 5 - 9 spread was 94 yuan/ton, down 27.69%; the rapeseed oil 5 - 9 spread was 28 yuan/ton, down 47.17% [9]. - **Warehouse Receipts**: The number of palm oil warehouse receipts decreased by 488 lots to 660 lots; the number of soybean oil warehouse receipts decreased by 1,434 lots to 26,525 lots; the number of rapeseed oil warehouse receipts decreased by 1,017 lots to 1,125 lots [9].

1. Report Industry Investment Rating No relevant content provided. 2. Core Views - The overall outlook for the agricultural products industry is complex, with different sub - sectors showing distinct trends. For the oil and fat sector, it is expected to be volatile and slightly bullish, but there is a risk of a technical correction after continuous rallies. For corn, the spot price is expected to be strong, and the futures price of the 2603 contract may follow the spot price. For the pig industry, the spot price will fluctuate, and the 03/05 futures contracts will be weak. For cotton, the short - term Zhengzhou cotton will be in a wide - range volatile adjustment, and the low - buying strategy remains valid. For sugar, the market lacks a clear driving logic, and the price is in a stagnant state [8][9][85][125][132][159]. 3. Summary by Directory 3.1 Oils and Fats - **Market Review and Operation Suggestions**: The three major oils showed a differentiated trend, with the strength relationship expected to be palm oil > soybean oil > rapeseed oil. Palm oil prices are supported by factors such as reduced production in Malaysia, increased exports, and concerns about long - term supply tightening. Soybean oil is affected by the expected biofuel policy in the US and the high - yield expectation in South America. Rapeseed oil is affected by the easing of China - Canada relations. It is recommended to hold a long - short arbitrage portfolio of long soybean oil and palm oil and short rapeseed oil [8][9]. - **Core Points** - **Domestic Spot Changes**: As of January 23, 2025, the price of first - grade soybean oil in East China was 8620 yuan/ton, up 70 yuan week - on - week; the price of third - grade rapeseed oil was 9750 yuan/ton, down 100 yuan week - on - week; the price of 24 - degree palm oil in South China was 8930 yuan/ton, up 230 yuan week - on - week [10]. - **Domestic Three - Major Oil Inventories**: As of the end of the 3rd week of 2026, the total inventory of the three major edible oils in China was 2.1034 million tons, down 38,300 tons week - on - week, a 1.79% decrease. Among them, soybean oil inventory was 1.1404 million tons, down 68,800 tons week - on - week; palm oil inventory was 653,800 tons, up 16,400 tons week - on - week; rapeseed oil inventory was 309,100 tons, up 14,100 tons week - on - week [19]. - **Domestic Oil and Oilseed Supply**: As of the end of the 3rd week, the soybean opening rate of major domestic soybean oil mills decreased slightly, with an average opening rate of 54.50%. The total soybean crushing volume this week was 1.9974 million tons. The opening rate of imported rapeseed processing enterprises was almost at a standstill, with a weekly opening rate of 0% [24][31]. - **Palm Oil Dynamics**: The Malaysian Palm Oil Council expects palm oil prices to fluctuate between 4000 - 4300 ringgit per ton in February. The average price of Malaysian palm oil futures in 2026 is expected to be slightly lower than last year. The market is optimistic about the upcoming biofuel policy in the US [34]. - **CFTC Positions**: Speculative funds have continuously reduced their net long positions in soybeans for six weeks, reduced their short - selling bets on Chicago soybean oil for two weeks, and reduced their short - selling bets on Chicago soybean meal for the first time in seven weeks [44]. 3.2 Corn - **Market Review**: The spot price of corn rose slightly this week. In the futures market, as of January 23, the main 2603 contract of Dalian Commodity Exchange closed at 2300 yuan/ton, up 19 yuan/ton from last week, a 0.83% increase [46]. - **Fundamental Analysis** - **Corn Supply**: The grain - selling progress was average this week, with more than half of the grain sold. The progress in Northeast China was 2% faster than the same period last year, while that in North China and Northwest China was 3% slower. As of January 16, the inventory in northern ports was 1.75 million tons, up 190,000 tons week - on - week; the inventory in southern ports was 697,000 tons, down 64,000 tons week - on - week [49][50]. - **Domestic Substitutes**: The price of wheat rose steadily this week. The snowfall in the main producing areas led to a reduction in the circulation of grain sources, and the flour mills increased their purchases. As of January 22, the average price of corn was 2328 yuan/ton, and the average price of wheat was 2522 yuan/ton [52]. - **Imported Substitute Grains**: In December 2025, the import of grains was 10.86 million tons, a 6.0% year - on - year increase. The import of corn and corn flour was 800,000 tons, a 133.1% year - on - year increase [54]. - **Feed Demand**: In November 2025, the national industrial feed output was 28.73 million tons, a 1.2% month - on - month decrease and a 2.7% year - on - year increase. The inventory of feed enterprises increased slightly this week [68][72]. - **Deep - Processing Demand**: The starch processing industry's opening rate increased slightly this week. The total corn processing volume was 330,800 tons, and the weekly opening rate was 60.46%. The processing profit of starch enterprises was in a loss state. The inventory of deep - processing enterprises increased this week [75][77]. - **Supply - Demand Balance Sheet**: According to the January 2026 agricultural product supply - demand report of the Ministry of Agriculture and Rural Affairs, the sown area of corn in the 2025/26 season is expected to be 44,961 thousand hectares, an increase of 220 thousand hectares; the yield per unit area is expected to be 6700 kg/ha, an increase of 108 kg/ha; the total output is expected to be 301.24 million tons, an increase of 2.1%. The consumption is expected to be 299.02 million tons, an increase of 116,000 tons [82]. - **Later Outlook and Strategy**: The spot price of corn is expected to be strong, and the futures price of the 2603 contract may follow the spot price. It is recommended that spot enterprises replenish inventory appropriately, and futures investors hold long positions [85][86]. 3.3 Pigs - **Market Review**: The spot price of pigs first rose and then fell this week, with the weekly average price moving up. The futures price of the main contract LH2603 fell by 350 yuan/ton from last Thursday, a 2.93% decrease [88][89]. - **Fundamental Overview** - **Long - Term Supply: Sows Inventory**: As of the end of 2025, the inventory of sows was 39.61 million heads, a 1.83% quarter - on - quarter decrease and a 2.9% year - on - year decrease. According to the data of Yongyi Information, the inventory of sows in sample farms increased in December 2025 [95]. - **Medium - Term Supply: Piglet Inventory**: The price of 6.5 - kg piglets rose by 45 yuan/head this week. As of December, the inventory of piglets in sample enterprises was 2.3856 million heads, a 1.30% month - on - month decrease and a 6.35% year - on - year increase [104][105]. - **Short - Term Supply: Large Pig Inventory, Hogging and Secondary Fattening**: As of December, the inventory of large pigs in sample enterprises was 1.311 million heads, a 3.93% month - on - month decrease. The proportion of large pigs over 140 kg increased, and the utilization rate of fattening pens increased [107][108]. - **Current Supply: Commercial Pig Slaughter Volume and Slaughter Weight**: In December, the actual slaughter volume of sample enterprises was 28.71 million heads, and the planned slaughter volume in January was 27.82 million heads, a 3.1% decrease. The average slaughter weight this week was 128.89 kg, a 0.03% week - on - week increase [111]. - **Import Supply: Pork Import**: In December 2025, China's pork import was 60,000 tons, unchanged from the previous month and a 30,000 - ton year - on - year decrease. The cumulative pork import in 2025 was 980,000 tons, an 8.4% year - on - year decrease [117]. - **Secondary Fattening Demand**: The enthusiasm for secondary fattening increased in mid - January. The cost of secondary fattening increased slightly this week [121]. - **Slaughter Demand**: The opening rate of slaughter enterprises was 35.18% this week, a 0.73 - percentage - point decrease from last week. The slaughter volume in November 2025 was 39.57 million heads, a 3.2% month - on - month increase and a 17.4% year - on - year increase [124]. - **Later Outlook**: The spot price of pigs will fluctuate, and the 03/05 futures contracts will be weak. It is recommended that futures investors short on rallies, and breeding enterprises increase hedging and reduce short positions with slaughter [125][127]. 3.4 Cotton - **Weekly Review and Operation Suggestions**: The external market of cotton fluctuated and declined, and Zhengzhou cotton adjusted in a wide range. The trade of domestic cotton spot was active this week, and the downstream textile enterprises were gradually on holiday. The USDA monthly report was relatively positive. It is recommended to maintain a low - buying strategy [130][131][132]. - **Core Points** - **Cotton - Producing Countries Situation**: The USDA's January supply - demand report adjusted the global cotton supply - demand situation in the 2025/26 season. The initial inventory decreased by 185,000 tons, the output decreased by 78,000 tons, the trade volume increased by 13,000 tons, the consumption increased by 67,000 tons, the ending inventory decreased by 324,000 tons, and the inventory - to - sales ratio decreased by 1.4% [133]. - **US Cotton Export Situation**: As of the week of January 8, the net signing of US cotton was 80,600 tons, and the cumulative signing was 1.623 million tons, a 19,100 - ton year - on - year decrease. The shipment was 37,600 tons, and the cumulative shipment was 747,800 tons, a 60,900 - ton year - on - year increase [140]. - **Textile Enterprises Operation Situation**: As of January 16, the cotton inventory of spinning enterprises was 32.7 days, up 0.9 days from last week; the yarn inventory was 26.6 days, down 0.7 days from last week; the yarn inventory of weaving factories was 8.3 days, up 0.3 days from last week; the cotton fabric inventory was 36.4 days, down 0.4 days from last week [142]. - **Basis and Inter - Month Spread**: As of January 22, 2026, the basis of China's cotton price index 3128B corresponding to the cotton 05 contract was 1109 yuan, down 188 yuan from last week. The 5 - 9 spread of cotton was - 155 yuan/ton, down 5 yuan/ton from last week [152]. - **CFTC Positions and Domestic Registered Warehouse Receipts**: As of January 13, the non - commercial long positions were 88,834 contracts, up 7425 contracts from last week; the non - commercial short net positions were 116,265 contracts, up 5936 contracts from last week; the non - commercial net positions were - 27,431 contracts, up 1489 contracts from last week. As of January 22, the total domestic cotton registered warehouse receipts were 11,089 contracts, up 551 contracts from last week [155]. 3.5 Sugar - **Market Review**: The raw sugar index fluctuated sideways at the 14.5 - cent level this week. The Zhengzhou sugar index first declined and then rebounded. The spot price of sugar in Guangxi, Yunnan, and Shandong decreased this week. The basis expanded, and the 5 - 9 spread of futures weakened [159][160][161]. - **Core Points** - **Production in Major Producing Areas**: As of December 2025, the cumulative sugar production in the central - southern region of Brazil was 39.904 million tons, a 1.13% year - on - year increase; as of December 15, the sugar production in India in the 2025/26 season was 7.825 million tons, a 27.69% year - on - year increase; as of December 24, the sugar production in Thailand in the 2025/26 season was 1.0005 million tons, a 166,700 - ton year - on - year decrease [159]. - **CFTC Positions**: As of January 13, 2026, the non - commercial net short positions of raw sugar were 165,711 contracts, up 11,613 contracts from the previous week; the total positions reached 970,010 contracts, up 26,840 contracts from the previous week [173].