Group 1 - The core viewpoint of the articles indicates a divergence among Federal Reserve officials regarding interest rate cuts, with some supporting a cut in July while others prefer to wait for more economic data to assess the impact of tariff policies on inflation [2][4] - The uncertainty surrounding the transmission of tariffs and their impact on inflation is a central theme, with some officials believing that tariffs could raise inflation through supply chains, while others emphasize the resilience of the U.S. economy based on recent economic data [4] - The Federal Reserve's stance reflects a "wait and see" approach, with 10 out of 19 officials expecting at least two rate cuts this year, while 7 believe no cuts are necessary, and 2 support only one cut [4] Group 2 - The expectation of interest rate cuts has a dual effect on the gold market, with short-term pressure due to a decrease in the probability of a July cut from 55% to around 40%, leading to short-term declines in gold prices [5] - Long-term supportive factors for gold include ongoing global central bank purchases, with the People's Bank of China increasing its gold reserves for eight consecutive months, reaching 73.9 million ounces by the end of June [7] - Structural support for gold is also provided by the expansion of the U.S. fiscal deficit and the weakening of the dollar's credit, with the dollar index declining by 10.7% this year, despite the cooling expectations for a July rate cut [7]

Group 1 - The recent rebound in gold prices is influenced by three main factors: dovish signals from the Federal Reserve, renewed trade tensions, and increased gold purchases by the People's Bank of China [1] - The Federal Reserve is expected to start cutting interest rates as early as September, with a total of two rate cuts anticipated by the end of the year [1] - The People's Bank of China has increased its gold reserves for eight consecutive months, with a notable addition of 70,000 ounces in June, bringing total reserves to 73.9 million ounces [1] Group 2 - China's central bank's strategy of increasing gold reserves is seen as a response to external financial shocks and aims to optimize the structure of foreign exchange reserves [2] - Gold is viewed as a non-sovereign credit reserve asset that can effectively hedge against risks associated with single currencies like the US dollar, especially in the context of trade wars and economic uncertainty [2] - Despite the continuous increase in gold reserves, China's holdings still lag behind those of developed economies, indicating potential for further accumulation of gold [2]

Group 1 - The Ministry of Industry and Information Technology and eight other departments in China have jointly issued the "Implementation Plan for High-Quality Development of the Gold Industry (2025-2027)", aiming for a 5%-10% increase in gold resource volume and over 5% in production by 2027 [1] - The Myanmar Gold Traders Association held a seminar on June 29 to discuss key areas such as legal trading channels, domestic gold price mechanisms, and international trade [1] - China has maintained its position as the world's largest producer of mined gold for 18 consecutive years and the largest consumer for 12 years, highlighting the industry's foundational advantages [1] Group 2 - Ping An Securities noted that the long-term logic for gold remains intact, with weakening dollar credit expected due to U.S. fiscal issues and trade tensions under the Trump administration, which may further impact government credit [1] - Geopolitical issues abroad continue to drive demand for gold as a safe-haven asset, suggesting that gold prices may continue to rise [1] - Global central banks have continued their gold purchasing pace, with 243.7 tons bought in Q1 2025, providing support for gold prices [1] Group 3 - Current gold holdings are at a low level, with SPDR Gold ETF holdings not keeping pace with gold price increases, indicating significant upward potential [1] - In the silver market, a supply-demand gap is expected to persist throughout the year, and during a loose monetary cycle, the gold-silver ratio is likely to converge, suggesting that silver may enter a phase of catch-up [1]

Group 1 - International gold prices have been fluctuating and recently experienced a significant decline, with domestic gold jewelry prices dropping to around 1,000 yuan per gram [1] - China's central bank has increased its gold reserves for seven consecutive months, reaching approximately 2,296 tons by the end of May, which is 7% of its foreign exchange reserves, lower than the global average of 15% [1] - The increase in gold reserves is seen as a strategy to enhance the renminbi's value and to mitigate risks associated with the weakening of the US dollar and geopolitical conflicts [2] Group 2 - Current geopolitical tensions, including the ongoing Russia-Ukraine conflict and renewed Middle East conflicts, are expected to elevate risk aversion and subsequently boost gold prices [4] - Analysts suggest that while there may be short-term profit-taking pressure on gold prices, the long-term trend remains upward, with recommendations for investors to allocate about 20% of their portfolios to gold assets [4] - The necessity for the central bank to pause gold purchases has decreased, while the demand for optimizing international reserve structures has increased due to changes in the global political and economic landscape [5]

期货交易者的紧密合作伙伴！ 文 | 张晨 来源 | 一德菁英汇 编辑 | 杨兰 审核 | 浦电路交易员 要点速览 上周四（6月5日）欧市、美市时段，内外盘期银大幅拉涨， 分别突破了2024年年内高点，续 创本轮上涨以来新高。与之相对应的是，金价表现相对低迷， 近几日反而出现冲高回落的震 荡走势，这使得金银比价加速向下回归，符合我们在此前《"脱缰"的金银比价修复空间几何》 专题报告中关于"一旦经贸摩擦边际缓和，引发比价以黄金相对白银补跌（亦即白银相对黄金 补涨）的方式进行修正"的假设条件与结论。 一德菁英汇 . 以下文章来源于一德菁英汇 ，作者一德菁菁 资料来源：wind，CME，一德宏观战略部 梳理本轮白银加速拉升，并非宏观基本面出现了显著利多变化，资金聚焦金银比价回归应为主 因。 此前我们曾对金银比大幅修正对应的基本面限定条件进行梳理，即对应10年期美债盈亏 平衡通胀率（通胀预期）达成出清后的修复，上述修复对应的宏观背景通常为一轮危机后，美 短期经贸摩擦缓和情绪难改逆全球化/美元信用弱化趋势，金银比价中枢上移概率大； 短期金银比价修正目标指向87-92区间，完结后回归基本面驱动； 白银创新高打开金价上行空间 ...

Report Investment Rating - Not provided in the content Core Viewpoints - In the context of strong demand growth, insufficient supply release, and a long - term bullish trend in gold, geopolitical crises, continuous central bank gold purchases, a loose monetary environment, and the weakening of the US dollar's credit support the long - term strength of gold prices. The report maintains that gold is expected to reach a high of $3,800 - $4,000 per ounce this year, corresponding to a RMB price of 880 - 930 yuan per gram. For silver, it is expected to break through 10,000 yuan per kilogram this year, with the US silver above $42 per ounce. Investors can buy long positions in gold and silver on dips [3][26]. Summary by Relevant Aspects Silver Market Demand - Silver is the core material for photovoltaic cell conductive paste, with about 80 tons of silver consumed per 1GW of photovoltaic installed capacity. In 2024, global new photovoltaic installed capacity exceeded 600GW, and the demand for silver paste increased by over 25% year - on - year. In 2025, global photovoltaic installed capacity continued to grow steadily, leading to a rapid increase in the industrial demand for silver. It is predicted that global photovoltaic installed capacity will increase from 390GW in 2023 to 1000GW in 2030. In 2024, China's new photovoltaic installed capacity was 277.57GW, maintaining its global leading position and strongly supporting domestic silver demand. Additionally, the semiconductor industry, servers, and high - performance chips also show a surging demand for silver conduction [5]. Supply - 70% of global silver is a by - product of copper, lead, and zinc mines. Affected by the low prices of base metals, global silver production has declined in recent years. In 2024, global silver production was 25,000 tons, a 2% year - on - year decline. The contraction in supply has led to a 45% decline in the London Bullion Market Association's silver inventory over the past three years to 26,000 tons, only enough to cover 5 months of industrial demand [8]. Price Influence - Silver has both industrial and precious metal attributes and is affected by gold prices. The current domestic "silver/gold" ratio is around 11.2, which is in the undervalued area [11]. Geopolitical Factors - On June 1, 2025, the Russia - Ukraine conflict reached a historic turning point. Ukraine launched a special military operation, and Russia urgently initiated the deployment procedure of 300,000 - ton strategic nuclear weapons, casting a shadow of nuclear deterrence over Eurasia. In addition, the situations in India - Pakistan and the Middle East remain unstable, which drives up the prices of precious metals [14]. Central Bank Gold Purchases - The People's Bank of China increased its gold reserves by 70,000 ounces in April 2025, which was the sixth consecutive month of gold purchases since November 2024. Since November 2022, the central bank has restarted gold purchases, buying 62.21 tons in 2022, 224.88 tons in 2023, 44.17 tons in 2024, and 14.9 tons in the first four months of 2025. As of the end of April, the central bank held 2,295 tons of gold, indicating the substitution demand for US dollar assets and the official recognition of the long - term value of gold [15]. Monetary Policy - On May 15, 2025, the People's Bank of China lowered the reserve requirement ratio of financial institutions by 0.5 percentage points, injecting about 1 trillion yuan of liquidity into the market. This was the second reserve requirement ratio cut since September 2024. Since 2021, China has been in a cycle of interest rate and reserve requirement ratio cuts, and the interest rate level has been declining. In addition, the monetary policies of major economies such as Europe and the United States are also becoming more accommodative. The Federal Reserve entered an interest rate cut cycle in December 2023, and there is still an expectation of several interest rate cuts this year. Europe is also in a long - term interest rate cut cycle. The global loose monetary environment remains unchanged, and the expectation of further interest rate cuts by major economies will further push up the price of gold [18][20]. US Dollar and Gold - The US federal government debt reached $37 trillion in May 2025, up from $36 trillion in November 2024, with the debt scale expanding at an accelerating pace. The Federal Reserve's continuous bond purchases have led to currency over - issuance, weakening the US dollar's purchasing power in the long run. When the US dollar's credit is damaged, gold, as a non - credit currency, is often favored. The US dollar is likely to enter a long - term depreciation channel, and gold will benefit from the currency substitution demand. Recently, the US dollar index has continued to decline, falling below 110 since January [22][23]. Gold Price Technical Analysis - Technically, the gold price is still supported by the support line. Every "pullback" is supported by the strong support line, and May was no exception. Now, gold has returned to the upward price trend [24].

Report Industry Investment Rating No relevant content provided. Core View of the Report The price of gold has a positive correlation with the level of US fiscal deficit, and the mid - term upward logic of gold prices is further clarified. However, in the short term, there are still downside risks to the price. It is recommended to hold existing long positions and wait for the price to pull back further before buying on dips [2][15]. Summary by Relevant Sections Trump Administration Promotes a New Round of Tax Cuts, and the Mid - term Upward Logic of Gold Prices is Further Clarified - Gold is a hedge against US dollar credit risks. Historical data shows that when the US fiscal deficit expands, the price of gold rises. For example, during the Bush administration from 2001 - 2008 and the Trump administration from 2017 - 2020, the fiscal deficit increased, and the price of gold also rose significantly [4]. - The "One Big Beautiful Bill Act" promoted by the Trump administration aims to extend most provisions of the "2017 Tax Cuts and Jobs Act" and introduce new tax cuts. It is estimated to increase the US fiscal deficit by $3.8 trillion in the next ten fiscal years and raise the debt ceiling by $4 trillion. After Trump's clear stance, the market's expectation of deficit control faded, and the gold price strengthened in the short term. After the bill passed the House of Representatives, the expansion of the US fiscal deficit in the medium term was further confirmed, so the gold price will generally show a strong performance during the Trump administration [5]. - The weakening of US dollar credit caused by US debt expansion is reflected in the US Treasury bond auctions. The winning bid rate of the 20 - year US Treasury bond auction on May 21 was significantly higher than that in April, and the bid - to - cover ratio was lower. The supply of US Treasury bonds is expected to increase, and the supply - demand pattern will deteriorate. Gold is an important alternative to US Treasury bonds [10][13]. The Fed's Hawkish Stance and the Release of Tariff Risks Will Cause the Gold Price to Continue to Pull Back in the Short Term - The Fed's monetary policy stance is hawkish. The Fed meeting minutes show that the participants believe that it is appropriate to adopt a cautious monetary policy. The market currently only expects the Fed to cut interest rates twice by 25 basis points this year, significantly less than the expectation at the end of April [14]. - The risk of Trump's tariff policy has been released in the short term. The US International Trade Court ruled that Trump's tariff collection was an over - stepping of power, and most tariffs will be suspended. After the ruling was announced, the international gold price fell in the short term, reflecting the weakening of the gold's safe - haven drive [14].

Core Viewpoint - The recent volatility in the U.S. Treasury market reflects a culmination of structural contradictions, exacerbated by a downgrade in the U.S. sovereign credit rating by Moody's, leading to a sell-off and rising yields [1] Group 1: U.S. Treasury Yield Dynamics - Moody's downgraded the U.S. sovereign credit rating from Aaa to Aa1, marking the end of its highest rating since 1917, which triggered a market sell-off [1] - The 30-year Treasury yield surpassed 5% and the 10-year yield rose above 4.5%, reaching the highest levels since 2008 [1] - As of May, the total U.S. federal debt exceeded $36 trillion, accounting for over 120% of GDP, with interest payments projected to reach $1 trillion in the 2024 fiscal year, representing 22% of fiscal revenue [1] Group 2: Factors Driving Yield Increases - Concerns over U.S. debt sustainability have intensified due to recent trade policy adjustments, which have reduced foreign investors' holdings of U.S. Treasuries from 34% to 29% by the end of 2024 [2] - The potential introduction of "century bonds" to replace foreign-held Treasuries has further eroded investor confidence, contributing to rising yields [2] - The upcoming refinancing of approximately $2 trillion in maturing Treasuries in June has raised doubts about the market's ability to absorb these without prior credit crises [2] Group 3: Global Financial Market Impacts - The volatility in U.S. Treasury yields is reshaping international capital flows, with sovereign wealth funds and hedge funds adjusting their asset allocations, increasing the appeal of safe-haven assets like gold [3] - Emerging markets are facing dual pressures of capital outflows and currency depreciation, particularly those with high external debt dependency [3] - Despite short-term volatility, the U.S. Treasury market retains resilience due to its liquidity and depth, supported by the Federal Reserve's role as a "lender of last resort" [3] Group 4: Broader Economic Implications - The rise in Treasury yields reflects deeper concerns about potential stagflation in the U.S. economy, influenced by tariff impacts and the restructuring of global trade [5] - Countries with high dependency on U.S. debt, such as Japan, are likely to be the most affected, as evidenced by rising yields on Japanese bonds [4]

Group 1 - The core driving factors for the current rise in gold prices include heightened risk aversion due to the downgrade of the US credit rating, geopolitical uncertainties in Europe and the US, global trade tensions, and escalating tensions in the Middle East, leading to increased capital inflow into the gold market [3] - The weakening of the US dollar's credibility is evident as the Federal Reserve's interest rate cut expectations rise, with US debt surpassing $36 trillion, prompting central banks worldwide to increase gold holdings to mitigate risks associated with dollar assets [3] - Technical buying has been triggered as gold prices surpassed $3,000, leading to algorithmic trading following suit, with gold ETF holdings nearing their peak for the year, indicating strong bullish sentiment in the market [3] Group 2 - Optimistic analysts, such as those from the China Foreign Exchange Investment Research Institute, believe that gold is likely to remain in an upward trend in the medium to long term, with prices potentially reaching $3,350 to $3,700 per ounce by 2025, while Goldman Sachs predicts extreme scenarios could see prices hit $4,500 [3] - Conversely, cautious analysts from the World Gold Council warn of a potential slowdown in growth and short-term pullback pressures, with technical indicators suggesting signals similar to the 2011 peak [3] - There is a long-term consensus that gold retains its strategic value as a hedge against inflation and a safe-haven asset, although short-term volatility risks should be monitored [3] Group 3 - For ordinary investors, it is recommended to allocate 5%-15% of their investable assets to gold to balance risk and return, suggesting that a 10% allocation in a 60/40 stock-bond portfolio can reduce overall volatility [4] - Investment options include physical gold, which is suitable for long-term value retention but incurs transaction costs (buy-sell spread of approximately 5-10 yuan per gram), and gold ETFs or accumulation gold, which offer strong liquidity and lower entry barriers, making them suitable for dollar-cost averaging or risk diversification [5] - High-risk tools such as futures and options are advised against for ordinary investors due to their extreme volatility and potential for significant losses [6] Group 4 - Timing strategies suggest that, given the current high gold prices (London gold at $3,301 per ounce), investors may consider waiting for a pullback to the $2,800-$3,000 range for phased entry [7] - For long-term strategies, monthly dollar-cost averaging or buying on dips is recommended to mitigate the impact of volatility through a "time smoothing" approach [7] Group 5 - Successful case studies include investors who began monthly investments in gold ETFs from 2019, achieving over 250% returns by 2025 [9] - Conversely, a cautionary tale involves a Shenzhen-based merchant who suffered over 100 million yuan in losses due to leveraged trading in gold futures, leading to a payment crisis [9] - Overall, gold remains strategically valuable for 2025, but ordinary investors should avoid chasing high prices, control their positions, and engage in long-term investments or phased buying during market pullbacks [9]

Short-term Downward Factors - International gold prices are under adjustment pressure, with potential for further declines in the short term [2] - Gold prices have broken below the key support level of $3200, with short-term support shifting to the $3150 - $3160 range [3] - If gold prices effectively drop below $3150, it may trigger programmatic selling, potentially reaching the psychological level of $3100 [3] Short-term Support or Rebound Factors - Despite the current bearish market sentiment, there is a possibility of short-term price recovery due to the Stochastic Oscillator being in the oversold region, indicating potential for a rebound [3] - Geopolitical uncertainties, such as the ongoing economic tensions between the US and China, may trigger safe-haven demand, supporting gold prices [3] - Central banks globally have shown a trend of net gold purchases, with 244 tons bought in Q1 2025, providing solid support for gold prices [3] Medium to Long-term Trend Analysis - Goldman Sachs maintains a target price of $3700 for gold by the end of 2025, with an extreme scenario suggesting a rise to $4500 [2] - Morgan Stanley warns that if the US economy does not "land," gold prices could plummet to $2700 [2] - Citic Securities forecasts that COMEX gold will range between $3000 and $3250 for the entire year [2] - The long-term outlook for gold remains positive due to stable demand driven by central bank purchases and the weakening of the US dollar's credit [3]