Group 1 - The core viewpoint is that the recent interest rate cut by the Federal Reserve signifies a strategic shift in the global financial landscape, indicating cracks in the dollar hegemony system [1][5] - The traditional "tide" mechanism of dollar hegemony, which involves aggressive interest rate hikes followed by cuts to acquire undervalued assets, has been disrupted for the first time in decades [3] - The U.S. faced challenges in executing its capital extraction strategy aimed at China, as the latter successfully stabilized its economy through dual circulation strategies and made advancements in key sectors [3][5] Group 2 - The Federal Reserve's decision to cut rates without achieving its intended capital extraction reflects a strategic failure, as high interest rates have burdened the U.S. economy and diminished its competitive edge [5] - The acceleration of the global de-dollarization process poses a fundamental threat to the dollar's status as a reserve currency, necessitating a reconsideration of high interest rates [5] - The unconventional rate cut may lead to significant impacts on the U.S. economy, potentially inflating stock market bubbles and increasing the risk of a severe market correction if new technologies do not quickly achieve commercial viability [7]

一场"技术性"地震：美元的三十年低谷与全球金融秩序的暗流涌动 2025年9月17日晚，华尔街的交易大厅在美联储宣布降息25个基点的消息传来时，瞬间被一股复杂的情 绪裹挟。股市先是经历了一轮短暂的狂欢，随后迅速跌入恐慌的深渊。然而，更令人跌破眼镜的是，与 降息同时出现的，是美元指数跌至1995年以来的历史性低谷。这场看似例行的货币政策调整，背后却隐 藏着足以撼动全球金融体系的重重经济隐患。美债、美元、乃至中国资产，究竟谁将最先迎来"爆雷"的 时刻？这需要我们抽丝剥茧，细细探寻。 从"50"到"25"：预期落空下的股市哀鸿遍野 在美联储内部，9月17日的降息投票并非铁板一块，出现了一张反对票，这位"异议者"显然更倾向于更 为激进的降息幅度。虽然这一微小的分歧被媒体放大解读，并引发了场内外的各种猜测，但真正的裂痕 并非仅限于利率本身，而是直指美元作为全球储备货币的信用根基。一位身处华尔街的交易员朋友在深 夜发来的语音中，一语道破天机："我们不怕降息，怕的是信念崩了。"这句话，道出了市场深层次的焦 虑。 中东的变局：石油-美元链条的松动 将目光投向地缘政治，过去几年里，中东地区几次关键事件的演变，让维系美元霸权的"石 ...

文 | 听云霭 编辑 | 听云霭 2025 年 9 月 18 日凌晨两点，对于全球金融界来说，是一个不寻常的时刻。 美联储主席杰罗姆・鲍威尔准时出现在全球记者的镜头前，他说出了那句让唐纳德・特朗普心心念念的话：下调联邦基准利率25 个基点。 资料参考：2025-09-18证券时报——凌晨！美联储宣布：降息25个基点！鲍威尔重磅发声！ 1.美联储降息 降息这件事，我们之前也见过不少次，但这一次却完全不一样。 今年以来，在美国的经济领域，一直有一个巨大的争论，那就是美联储到底要不要降息。 从 9 月 18 日凌晨开始，全球金融行业的投资大佬们几乎都不约而同地发出了相同的感叹：美联储所谓的尊严，所谓神圣不可侵犯的独立性，在这一刻正式 幻灭。 以鲍威尔为代表的传统老派技术型官员，他们有着理工男的风格，始终坚持不降息。 他们觉得美国现在通胀还没散去，物价还很贵，降息根本没有理由，谁降息谁就是美国老百姓的罪人。 而另一派呢，就是以特朗普为代表的白宫西翼政客群体。 前几天，特朗普骂得都上头了，他说在自己的领导之下，美国经济这么好，随便来个人都能干得比鲍威尔出色。 这俩加起来都 150 多岁的人了，为啥骂得这么不留情面呢？ ...

美联储加息点燃导火索，全球资金开始回流美国，这直接冲击新兴市场货币。2015年12月16日，美国联邦储备委员会宣布加息25个基点，这是近十年来的第 一次。 表面上看是为了稳住美国经济，但实际也让美元更吸引人。结果呢，国际游资像闻到腥味的鲨鱼一样，蜂拥转向亚洲，尤其是中国的人民币。 那时候，中国经济正面临出口下滑和资本外流的问题，人民币对美元汇率本来就有点晃荡，从6.2左右开始往下探。香港作为离岸人民币交易中心，每天处 理上千亿美元的交易量，成为这场博弈的主战场。 国际投机者们觉得机会来了，他们借入人民币抛售，赌汇率继续跌，好从中捞一把。索罗斯这样的老牌投机家公开表态，说中国经济有硬着陆风险，资金会 加速外逃。这话一出，市场更乱了，离岸人民币汇率一度跌到6.6以上。 美联储的加息不光是经济政策，还牵扯到美元霸权的维护，美国通过这种方式想拉回全球资本，削弱竞争对手的货币影响力。中国外汇储备当时超过3万亿 美元，本来是用来稳汇率的，现在成了保卫战的弹药库。 索罗斯的风格就是杠杆大，赌政策漏洞，但他忽略了中国外汇储备的规模和决心。以前他赢多输少，这次瞄准人民币，背景是美联储加息拉走资金，中国资 本外流加剧。但他没算到 ...

说是美国政界和金融圈子都有期待，结果这点降息对华尔街来说，就像是给大胃王塞了颗糖，远远不 够，美国总统那边说硬得很，要求降更多，大佬们的如意算盘显然落了空。 其实最近美元在世界上的地位变得有些尴尬，不是说利率高了，资金就会自动往美国跑。阿根廷利息比 谁都高，可钱照样守不住。 现在全球越来越多国家开始试着摆脱美元，比如石油交易里，美元已经不再是唯一选项。这背后是信任 问题，只要美元背后的诺言打了折，所谓的霸权根基就岌岌可危。 美联储刚刚扣下25个基点的降息扳机，表面是给市场吃了一颗"安定丸"，可实际上，大家的心里反倒更 没底了。 现在美元非常不妙，国际货币基金说美元在全球储备里已经跌到接近三十年来最低，超过百个国家琢磨 着绕过美元做生意。 人民币结算、金砖新体系，这些备胎方案一个接一个上马，等到这些都成了气候，美元再想一家独大， 难度比以前大多了。 美国政府更想靠撒钱扩军，用"全球动荡"来巩固自己的龙头地位，结果反而把自己拖进一堆麻烦，财政 赤字堆得越来越高，利息负担就像雪球越滚越大。 美联储为守住美元的金融位置，坚持高利率，想用这招把外部资金吸进美国，于是两边时不时掰手腕， 谁也说服不了谁。 这轮25基点的小 ...

美联储降息，究竟是拯救市场的灵丹妙药，还是让市场陷入深渊的毒药？全球资本市场此刻都屏住了呼 吸，静静等待着美联储这一无形的指挥棒，究竟会如何肆意挥洒其"魔力"。那么，为何此次美联储的降 息举措，会引发资本市场前所未有的高度关注呢？仅仅25个基点和50个基点之间的差异，不过0.25%， 真的值得引发如此巨大的争议吗？今天，就让我们一次性深入剖析这场被称作史上最危险的降息周期。 此次降息已然如疾风骤雨般袭来，它究竟与以往的降息周期有何本质区别？它的降临，又会怎样影响我 们每一个人的工作、生活以及钱包里的财富呢？ 我们国家刚刚圆满结束九三阅兵，展现出了与时俱进的发展速度和稳如泰山的社会状态，这恐怕是资本 市场难以抗拒的魅力所在。因此，我们有理由相信，在降息周期的影响下，我们的股市、楼市以及实体 经济都有望迎来复苏的曙光。然而，这里不得不提的是，此次股市将如何演绎这场大戏呢？这确实是一 个未知数。毕竟，早在降息预期之前，A股就已经冲高至3888点，市场早已提前消化了降息可能带来的 利好。因此，当真降息来临之时，市场或许会出现"见光死"的尴尬局面，利好反而可能变成利空。毕 竟，在历史上，这样的戏码已经不止一次地上演过。 ...

Core Viewpoint - The article discusses the impact of the Trump administration's policies on the purchasing power of the U.S. resident sector, highlighting the ineffective execution of these policies and suggesting that China should focus on technological breakthroughs and the internationalization of the RMB to reduce reliance on the dollar and alleviate the "Triffin dilemma" affecting the global economy [1]. Group 1: Evolution of U.S. Resident Sector Purchasing Power - The purchasing power of the U.S. resident sector has evolved from continuous expansion during globalization to structural decline due to factors such as slowing natural growth rates, debt expansion, and reshaping global demand [3]. - The core demand of the U.S. resident sector is to enhance purchasing power, which has been a driving force behind the trade war, leading to a mismatch between high pricing in the high-consumption market and declining purchasing power [3]. Group 2: Globalization and Purchasing Power Expansion - In the early stages of globalization, the U.S. resident sector benefited from low-priced imports due to China's labor cost advantages, which allowed multinational manufacturers to lower production costs and prices [6]. - The dollar's hegemony provided benefits to the U.S. resident sector by keeping interest rates low, which facilitated debt expansion and maintained low inflation, thus supporting purchasing power [7]. Group 3: Decline of Purchasing Power in Later Stages of Globalization - Post-2008, the U.S. economy's growth rate slowed, leading to a decline in corporate profits and further stagnation in wage growth for the U.S. resident sector [9]. - China's rise and shift from an export-driven economy to one driven by investment and consumption have increased competition for profit shares, thereby reducing the purchasing power subsidy previously enjoyed by the U.S. resident sector [9]. - The diversification of global central bank reserves has reduced the rigid reliance on the dollar, leading to increased volatility in the dollar's value and diminishing the purchasing power of U.S. residents when exchanging currencies [9]. Group 4: Debt Issues and Purchasing Power - The article emphasizes the importance of the non-Ponzi condition in discussing debt, noting that debt growth must not exceed the natural return rate of the economy [10]. - Post-2008, the lack of technological advancement and persistent low-interest rates have raised concerns about the sustainability of U.S. debt, leading to cuts in welfare programs that directly impact resident purchasing power [10].

Group 1 - The article discusses the challenges faced by the US dollar and US Treasury bonds, highlighting a significant rise in the 10-year Treasury yield to 4.46%, marking the largest three-day volatility since 1981 [3] - The US Treasury's bond buyback reached a historic high of $138 billion, nearly double the previous year's total, indicating efforts to stabilize the market amid rising debt, which now exceeds $36 trillion [3][5] - There is a noticeable decline in demand for US Treasury bonds, with major domestic investors purchasing only 6.2% of a recent three-year bond auction, down from a typical 19%, reflecting growing skepticism towards US dollar assets [5] Group 2 - In contrast, the Chinese yuan is gaining traction, with the exchange rate against the US dollar reaching 7.1163, the highest since November of the previous year, supported by China's robust groundwork in international payments [7][16] - The People's Bank of China reported that the Cross-Border Interbank Payment System (CIPS) now covers 189 countries, processing 4.0295 million transactions worth 90.19 trillion yuan in the first half of the year, equating to approximately 2.5 million yuan per second in global transactions [7][11] - China's energy imports from the US have plummeted to nearly zero, while imports from Russia have increased by 16.8%, with many transactions being settled in yuan, showcasing the yuan's growing international acceptance [9][12] Group 3 - The article emphasizes that the value of a currency is underpinned by its strength and credibility, contrasting the US's $36 trillion debt and geopolitical tensions with China's focus on trade and infrastructure development [12][14] - The trend indicates a shift in global currency dynamics, with more countries recognizing the benefits of using the yuan for transactions, as it is perceived as safer and more convenient compared to the dollar [14]

Core Viewpoint - The U.S. Court of Appeals ruled against the Trump administration's attempt to dismiss Federal Reserve Board member Lisa Cook, reinforcing the independence of the Federal Reserve and its ability to conduct monetary policy without political interference [1][4]. Group 1: Impact on Federal Reserve Independence - The ruling upholds the principle of protection for independent agency officials established in the 1935 Humphrey's Executor case, delineating the legal boundaries of presidential power [1]. - The case reflects ongoing challenges to the Federal Reserve's policy independence, as internal conflicts may arise from the Senate's confirmation of new board members [1][4]. Group 2: Implications for the U.S. Dollar and Global Economy - The potential for political interference in monetary policy could lead to a decline in investor confidence in U.S. dollar assets, resulting in capital outflows and depreciation of the dollar [4]. - Increased long-term borrowing costs could exacerbate the interest burden on U.S. government debt, while accelerating the trend of de-dollarization globally [4]. - The ruling sends a signal that Federal Reserve policies are not subject to political manipulation, temporarily stabilizing the dollar's status as a global reserve currency [4]. Group 3: Broader Political Context - The situation highlights the fragility of American democratic institutions and the ongoing struggle between administrative power and independent agencies [5][7]. - The ultimate resolution of this issue may depend on a future ruling from the U.S. Supreme Court, which could have significant implications for the relationship between executive power and independent institutions [7].

美元霸权的裂痕与人民币国际化的加速：一场悄然发生的全球金融格局重塑 美国经济困局：高额赤字与降息的窘境 人民币国际化近年来取得了令人瞩目的成就。截至2025年5月末，中国人民银行已与全球32个国家和地区的央行或货币当局签署了双边本币互换协议，总规 模高达4.5万亿元人民币。2025年9月，中国更是与欧洲三大央行签署了三项重磅货币互换协议，总额达5400亿元人民币。 与欧洲央行签署的3500亿元互换协议，清晰地反映了德国汽车产业对华贸易的深度依赖。2025年，大众集团在华销量占据其全球销量的38%，然而，大众集 团的财务总监曾公开抱怨："每卖一辆车就要损失3%的利润，全用于对冲汇率风险。"此举无疑为德国汽车巨头提供了更稳定的汇率保障。 近日，一则消息在国际金融界激起了涟漪：美国财政部长耶伦（此处原文为"贝森特"，根据常识推测为"耶伦"）在《华尔街日报》发表文章，严厉抨击美联 储的货币政策，直指其是导致美国高通胀、贫富差距加剧及债务风险失控的罪魁祸首。她认为，美联储的宽松政策不仅损害了美元的信用，更削弱了市场对 其独立性的信任。与此同时，中国人民银行却捷报频传，不仅密集签署了多项人民币与多国央行的本币互换协议，其 ...