1. Report Industry Investment Rating No relevant information provided. 2. Core Viewpoints of the Report The report provides weekly views on various non - ferrous metals, analyzing their supply, demand, inventory and price trends, and giving corresponding investment suggestions for each metal. 3. Summary by Metal Categories Copper - Market sentiment is bullish for the medium - long term, with high enthusiasm for long - term copper market allocation. In Q1 2026, major mines are difficult to resume production significantly, and lower long - term processing fees lead to reduced smelting capacity, increasing downward pressure on global refined copper smelting growth. The probability of the Fed cutting interest rates in December is rising, and the market is concerned about the change of the Japanese yen's interest rate. The manufacturing PMI of major northern - hemisphere economies is in decline at the end of the year [1]. - Domestic supply and demand show that there is no impetus for production increase. The inventory in the Q area has exceeded the peak in the mid - 1990s, and the US has difficulty in quickly digesting it. However, due to the potential of Trump's trade policy, the US is expected to import copper in 2026. The copper price may reach $11,500 - $12,000 in Q1 2026, and the domestic copper price may enter the high - level range of 92,000 yuan. It is recommended to short - sell at high points in the short - term and hold long positions at 88,000 - 87,800 yuan [1]. Aluminum and Alumina - Alumina has a significant surplus, with domestic operating capacity at a historical high. It will run weakly until large - scale production reduction occurs, with support at the annual low of 2,600 yuan [2]. - New production capacity is being added. Tian Shan Aluminum's second - phase project will increase production by 120,000 tons this year and another 120,000 tons in the first half of 2026. An overseas joint - venture project in Indonesia is expected to increase production by about 80,000 tons per year and reach a production capacity of 500,000 tons in October next year [2]. - The downstream demand is mixed. The overall开工 rate of downstream leading enterprises has increased by 0.45% to 62.3%, with some automotive - related fields being relatively strong, but the construction industry is still sluggish. The inventory has decreased slightly, and the spot discount has slightly expanded. The Shanghai aluminum price will continue to oscillate to test the previous high of 22,000 yuan [2]. Zinc - The zinc market has a supply reduction expectation, and the rebound pressure is weakening. The LME zinc inventory has increased, and the output of overseas smelters has not increased significantly in Q3. The domestic zinc concentrate supply is tight, and the smelter output is expected to decline by more than 20,000 tons in December [3]. - The consumption growth expectation is insufficient due to the real - estate market, the slowdown of infrastructure investment, the end of the photovoltaic and wind - power installation rush, and the arrival of the off - season in the north. The Shanghai zinc price will oscillate in the range of 22,200 - 23,000 yuan per ton, with cost support [3]. Lead - The LME lead inventory is at a high level, and the lead import window is open. The domestic and foreign lead prices have weakened synchronously. The domestic primary lead supply is tight, while the recycled lead has a situation of simultaneous maintenance and resumption. The lead consumption lacks an incremental expectation [4]. - The cost and consumption are in a game, and the Shanghai lead price will oscillate in the range of 17,000 - 17,300 yuan per ton [4]. Nickel and Stainless Steel - The nickel market has rebounded, with the Shanghai nickel and stainless - steel prices rising. The inventory of stainless - steel 300 - series cold - rolled products has increased, and the market sentiment has slightly recovered but lacks sustainability [5]. - The overall supply of the nickel industry chain is increasing, and it is more reasonable to short - sell at high positions [5]. Tin - The tin price has soared, with the London tin approaching $40,000 and the Shanghai tin breaking through the 200,000 - yuan mark. The supply is affected by transportation interruptions in Congo (Kinshasa) and the resumption of production in Myanmar. The consumption highlights are in the semiconductor and automotive integrated - circuit fields [6]. - The inventory level is neutral. It is recommended to be cautious when chasing high prices, and spot hedging short - sellers should be equipped with hedging strategies [6]. Lithium Carbonate - The lithium carbonate market has strong demand, with the spot price rising. The downstream production is active, and the total market inventory has decreased. The mining end price is strong [7]. - The overall fundamentals are strong, and short - sellers are at a disadvantage [7]. Industrial Silicon - The price of industrial silicon has a stable upward trend in the range. The supply in the Sichuan - Yunnan region is expected to decrease due to the dry season, and the demand is expected to decrease by about 4,000 tons due to the joint emission - reduction plan of the organic silicon industry [8]. - The social inventory has increased by 2,000 tons to 550,000 tons, and the market will continue to oscillate in the short - term [8]. Polysilicon - The polysilicon futures price has increased, with the 2512 contract breaking through 60,000 yuan per ton. The production in November decreased by more than expected, and there is still room for downward adjustment in December. The demand for silicon wafers and components has decreased significantly [9]. - The factory inventory has increased by 10,000 tons to 281,000 tons. The exchange has adjusted the speculative margin, and the market sentiment has cooled down [9].

Report Industry Investment Rating - The investment rating is neutral [8] Core Viewpoints of the Report - In 2025, the core contradiction in the global oil market is focused on the good production in major producing countries and the uncertainty of biodiesel industry policies and trade policies. In the palm oil sector, Indonesia's production in 2025 is expected to increase by 10% year-on-year, and Malaysia's annual production remains stable, with an unexpectedly high inventory in October. For soybean oil, although the global soybean production has a phased decline due to the US, the increase in South American soybean production ensures a bumper global soybean harvest. Rapeseed oil supply is also basically good, with the EU's rapeseed production increase contributing 54.7% of the global increment. China's anti - dumping deposit policy on Canadian rapeseed has significantly reduced China's rapeseed import scale. On the demand side, biodiesel policies show great fluctuations, and Indonesia's B50 expectation, as well as the US biodiesel blending targets and subsidy policies, have a great impact on the demand side [4][96] - The prices of the three major domestic oils show a significant differentiation trend, and the difference in supply - demand patterns and policy regulation directions are the core influencing variables. Rapeseed oil prices show a characteristic of oscillating upward with a rising bottom. The policy of imposing anti - dumping deposits on Canadian rapeseed in August has broken the previous supply - demand balance, leading to a sharp decline in domestic rapeseed inventory and a drop in the oil mill operating rate. Although the inventory was high in the first half of the year, the expectation of supply contraction has become the core pricing logic. Soybean oil prices oscillate between cost support and inventory suppression. After April, the concentrated arrival of South American soybeans has led to high crushing volume and a rise in inventory, and the weakening of the double - festival stocking demand has caused a price correction. The soybean gap in the third and fourth quarters may have less impact than expected. Palm oil prices show a downward oscillating trend. The increase in production in major producing countries and the surge in domestic imports have brought double supply pressure, increasing the domestic inventory. Only the implementation of Indonesia's B40 policy has provided phased support, but the uncertainty of the future B50 policy still poses great price risks [4][5][97] - Future research on the oil market should focus on three core factors. On the supply side, it is necessary to track the weather changes during the sowing period of South American soybeans, the entry of major palm oil producing countries into the seasonal production - reduction cycle, the implementation progress and funding guarantee of Indonesia's B50 biodiesel policy, and the changes in China - Canada trade policies and the export scale of Australian rapeseed to China. On the demand side, it is necessary to focus on the recovery of domestic catering consumption and the boost of the US biodiesel industry's profit improvement on soybean oil consumption. In terms of inventory, the high inventory pressure of soybean oil needs to be digested through the expansion of the export market and the recovery of terminal consumption, the inventory accumulation pressure of palm oil may gradually ease with the arrival of the seasonal production - reduction period in producing areas, and the low - inventory pattern of rapeseed oil is difficult to change fundamentally in the short term [4][6][98] Summary According to the Directory 2025 Review of the Three Major Oils' Market Conditions - From January to October 2025, the prices of the three major domestic vegetable oils fluctuated greatly and showed significant differentiation. Rapeseed oil prices oscillated upward, with the spot average price in October rising 10.5% compared to January. Soybean oil prices slightly fluctuated between cost and inventory, with the average price in October rising only 2.28% compared to January. Palm oil prices oscillated downward, with the average price in October falling 6.47% compared to January [12] - From January to March, the three major oils were in the initial game stage. Rapeseed oil was balanced between high carry - over inventory and Spring Festival stocking demand. Soybean oil oscillated at the bottom, supported by low soybean arrivals and low crushing volume. Palm oil oscillated downward under policy negatives and production - reduction support [14][16] - From April to July, the market differentiation of the three major oils intensified. Rapeseed oil oscillated at a high level, restricted by high inventory and slow catering recovery. Soybean oil prices fell under the pressure of abundant supply. Palm oil prices continued to decline due to increased production in major producing countries [16][18] - From August to October, policy variables became the key to break the market balance. Rapeseed oil prices rose unilaterally after the anti - dumping deposit policy on Canadian rapeseed. Soybean oil prices first rose due to cost - push and then adjusted due to high inventory. Palm oil prices first rebounded and then fell back, affected by Indonesia's biodiesel policy and the increase in inventory [18] Global Oil Supply Analysis Global Palm Oil Supply - Indonesia and Malaysia account for over 80% of global palm oil production, and their supply - demand patterns dominate the global market. In 2025, Indonesia entered the seasonal production - increase period in March. From June to August, its monthly average production increased by over 30%. The increase in exports and domestic industrial consumption due to biodiesel policies effectively digested the supply pressure. GAPKI estimates that Indonesia's palm oil production will increase by about 10% this year and about 5% next year, but the weather in 2026 may be a variable [20][23] - Malaysia's annual palm oil production fluctuated seasonally, with the total output from January to October increasing slightly by 1.77% year - on - year. Due to the aging of oil palm trees and limited new planting areas, its production growth was restricted. From June to October, exports were lower than expected due to competition from Indonesia, leading to an increase in inventory. In October, the inventory was 30.72% higher than the same period last year [26][27] Global Soybean Supply - Global soybean production increased from 316,072 thousand tons in the 2015/16 season to 427,136 thousand tons in the 2024/25 season, but decreased by 1.3% in the 2025/26 season, mainly due to a 2.3% reduction in harvested area, while the yield per unit area increased by 0.7% [30] - In the US, although the planting area decreased, the yield per unit area was at a high level, and the total output reached 115 million tons. In South America, Brazil's soybean planting progress in the 2025/26 season is smooth, and overseas institutions have a high - yield expectation, with estimates generally in the range of 175 - 180 million tons. Argentina may reduce the soybean planting area, and the estimated output is in the range of 48 - 50 million tons [31][34] - In the 2025/26 season, global soybean ending inventory decreased slightly by 1.1%, and the stock - to - use ratio decreased from 20.6% to 20.0%. The US soybean stock - to - use ratio also decreased, and the ending inventory decreased by 8.5% compared to the 2024/25 season [37] Global Rapeseed Oil Supply - From 2015/16 to 2024/25, global rapeseed supply showed a fluctuating upward trend, and in 2025/26, the total output increased by 7.3% year - on - year. The EU's rapeseed production increase contributed 54.7% of the global increment [44] - In Canada, the yield per unit area in 2025/26 recovered to a high level in the past five years, and the total output increased by 4.0% year - on - year, accounting for 21.7% of the global total output. In the EU, the rapeseed output in 2025/26 increased by 19.3% year - on - year, driven by the improvement of yield per unit area and the expansion of harvested area [48][49] Global Oil Demand Analysis Global Biodiesel Production Trend - Globally, biodiesel production increased continuously from 2021 to 2024 but is expected to decline in 2025. Traditional production areas such as the EU and the US are showing a slowdown or decline in growth, while some countries in Southeast Asia and South America, such as Indonesia and Brazil, are the main driving forces for growth [54][55] US Biodiesel Situation - In the first three quarters of 2025, the profit of the US biodiesel industry was poor, and production decreased significantly. In order to relieve the supply pressure, US soybean oil prices decreased to gain export competitiveness. However, since October, the profit of the biodiesel industry has improved significantly. The US Environmental Protection Agency has adjusted the renewable fuel obligation targets for 2026 and 2027, and future implementation needs to be monitored [58][60][65] Indian Oil Consumption - In the 2024/25 season, India's total oil imports decreased slightly by 0.32% year - on - year, but palm oil imports decreased by 16.82% due to price increases and tariff adjustments. From January to May, India mainly consumed inventory, and from June to September, imports increased significantly as inventory reached a low level. India's oil consumption growth supports the global oil market, and its palm oil consumption and inventory are important factors affecting palm oil prices [66][67][69] Domestic Oil Supply - Demand Analysis Imports - From January to September 2025, China's soybean imports increased by 5.29% year - on - year. The direct import of soybean oil was relatively small, with a 5.12% increase year - on - year. Rapeseed imports decreased by 42.19% year - on - year, while rapeseed oil imports increased by 18.13% year - on - year. Palm oil imports decreased by 19.21% year - on - year, mainly due to the production pattern in major producing countries and the inverted price difference between soybean oil and palm oil [72][74][82] Consumption - As of the 45th week of 2025, China's soybean crushing increased by 5.24% year - on - year. Rapeseed crushing decreased by 47.7% year - on - year, mainly due to policy and supply constraints. Palm oil consumption showed obvious seasonal fluctuations, with overall weak demand and slow inventory digestion [83][86][89] Inventory - As of the 45th week of 2025, China's soybean oil commercial inventory increased by 4.84% year - on - year, reaching a peak due to high crushing volume and weak consumption in summer. Rapeseed oil inventory decreased significantly after the anti - dumping policy on Canadian rapeseed. Palm oil inventory first decreased due to supply shortages and then increased due to increased production in major producing countries and weak demand [90][94] Market Outlook - The core contradictions in the 2025 global oil market remain, and the prices of the three major domestic oils will continue to be affected by supply - demand patterns and policies in the future. Future research should focus on supply - side factors such as weather, biodiesel policies, and trade policies, as well as demand - side factors such as domestic catering consumption and US biodiesel industry profits [96][98]

Core Insights - The UK Office for Budget Responsibility (OBR) projects a budget surplus of £21.7 billion for the fiscal year 2029-2030, an increase from the previous forecast of £9.9 billion in March [1] - The proposed tax policy changes are expected to generate an additional £26.1 billion in tax revenue by the fiscal year 2029-2030 [1] - The medium-term productivity growth forecast has been revised down from 1.3% to 1.0% [1] Economic Projections - GDP growth rate for 2025 is projected at 1.5%, an increase from the earlier estimate of 1.0% made in March [1] - There remains significant uncertainty regarding the future direction of US and global trade policies, with many trading partners facing the threat of tariff increases [1] Fiscal Strategy - Approximately three-quarters of the planned reduction in borrowing over the next five years will be achieved through tax increases [1] - The UK government aims to achieve a balanced current budget by the fiscal year 2029-2030 [1]

Core Insights - The trust foundation of the transatlantic partnership is being eroded by the unpredictable trade policies of the United States, including frequent tariff adjustments and unilateral measures like digital tax disputes and Section 232 investigations [2] - The EU is urged to strengthen cooperation with countries that adhere to a rules-based trade system and maintain robust relations with Europe, as the US has shifted to an aggressive trade policy [2] - The current trade relationship between the US and EU is undergoing a fundamental transformation, lacking stability from the Obama administration's failure to reach agreements to the unilateral tariffs during the Trump era and the security-oriented cooperation under the Biden administration [2] Future Outlook - The digital regulation sector is anticipated to be a significant source of new disputes between the US and EU, with US tech companies pressuring the government to counter EU digital rules, while the EU remains firm on its public policy objectives [3] - EU climate legislation may also become a contentious issue due to corporate lobbying, with the US threatening to initiate Section 301 investigations against EU digital regulations and multiple Section 232 investigations affecting various industries [3] - The expert has extensive experience in EU trade policy, having served as the chief negotiator for the Transatlantic Trade and Investment Partnership (TTIP) and played key roles in various WTO negotiations [3]

Core Viewpoint - The U.S. government plans to impose tariffs of up to 107% on 13 EU pasta companies, including Rummo, starting January, which could significantly impact the gluten-free pasta market and Italian pasta exports to the U.S. [3][5] Group 1: Impact on Consumers - The impending tariffs are causing anxiety among consumers, particularly those with dietary restrictions, as prices for gluten-free pasta are expected to double, potentially driving brands like Rummo out of the U.S. market [3][5] - Consumers are reacting by stockpiling products, indicating a fear of scarcity in the market [3]. Group 2: Impact on the Italian Pasta Industry - The Italian pasta industry, which exports over $4.6 billion annually, could see its exports to the U.S. drop to nearly zero if the tariffs are implemented [5]. - Coldiretti, a major Italian agricultural organization, warns that the tariffs would erase years of growth and investment in the supply chain [5]. Group 3: EU's Response and Market Dynamics - The EU is preparing a tariff exemption list that includes pasta, aiming to negotiate with the U.S. to mitigate the impact of the tariffs [7]. - A report from the London School of Economics indicates that EU pasta prices in the U.S. are already 25% to 30% higher than in Europe, suggesting that these products are not being sold at unfairly low prices [7]. Group 4: Political Implications - The tariffs appear to be more of a political maneuver rather than a calculated economic strategy, aimed at demonstrating U.S. political strength and creating a "shock effect" [9]. - The actions against pasta serve as a warning to all industries that they could be targeted under the current U.S. trade policies [9].

Core Viewpoint - The company has not directly exported oriented silicon steel to the United States, but its end customers have penetrated into the European and American markets. The company is monitoring trade policy developments and assessing potential impacts on its business [1] Group 1: Trade Policy and Market Impact - The company has not received any official announcement from the U.S. regarding the "complete removal of restrictions on oriented silicon steel for transformers" [1] - The company will continue to track the latest developments in trade policies and evaluate their potential impact on its operations [1] Group 2: International Business Expansion - The company aims to actively seize market opportunities and continuously expand its international business [1] - Specific export regions and business proportions will be detailed in the company's periodic reports and temporary announcements [1]

Group 1 - European companies largely withstood pessimistic profit expectations in Q3, with more upward guidance revisions than downward ones, achieving better-than-expected profit margins despite tariff and exchange rate pressures [3] - The overall tone of discussions regarding supply chains, inflation, and economic recovery has become more optimistic, as indicated by a decrease in mentions of tariffs compared to Q1 and Q2 [3] - The trade agreement between the US and EU, which established a 15% tariff rate, has contributed to increased confidence among companies regarding future cost and profit trajectories [3] Group 2 - Hexpol AB, a company providing rubber and plastic components for the automotive and construction industries, frequently mentioned uncertainty due to ongoing trade tensions, indicating that US tariffs have negatively impacted North American clients and suppressed demand [3] - Volvo Group expressed concerns over uncertainty in the North American market, attributing reduced orders to decreased freight activity and a 25% tariff on medium and heavy trucks, expecting this weakness to persist into next year [4] Group 3 - The current weak market conditions have shifted from being widespread to more localized, enhancing confidence in a recovery next year, which has led to upward revisions in expectations for 2026 [7] - Despite challenges in the automotive and chemical sectors, the resilience shown by both cyclical and defensive industries is laying a stronger foundation for profit growth in 2026 [7]

【基本面消息】 【黄金期货最新行情】 | 11月18日 | 收盘价（元/克） | 当日涨跌幅 | 成交量（手） | 持仓量（手） | | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | | 沪金主力 | 918.52 | -1.33% | 236915 | 90872 | 打开APP，查看更多高清行情>> 【机构观点】 大有期货：近期贵金属市场呈现多空拉锯格局，预计将维持区间震荡。短期来看，美联储官员持续释放 鹰派信号，强调对通胀回落进程的担忧并反对短期内降息，这一立场支撑美元与美债收益率，令无息资 产黄金承压。然而，市场下方仍存在稳固支撑：一方面，美国白宫宣布对多项进口食品实施关税豁免， 同时美瑞协议也降低部分关税，这类贸易政策的调整虽局部缓和供应链压力，但也反映出全球贸易环境 仍处于复杂博弈之中，不确定性并未消除；另一方面，地缘政治紧张态势持续激发市场的避险需求。整 体而言，贵金属在货币政策压力与避险支撑之间寻求平衡，短期内难有趋势性突破，投资者正密切关注 贸易政策动向与通胀数据的进一步指引。 白宫表示，美国总统特朗普周五签署一项行政令，针对今年早些时候对几乎所有国家征收的全面关税， 豁免包括 ...

（央视财经《天下财经》）当地时间14日，加拿大总理卡尼表示，美国关税政策及其带来的不确定性将使加拿大损失约1.8%的国内生产总 值。"美国已经改变了"，如果加拿大不采取行动，损失只会更大，加拿大必须对美关税政策作出回应。 美国总统特朗普7月31日签署行政令，要求从8月1日起，将加拿大输美商品关税税率从25%上调至35%。特朗普10月23日宣布，中止与加拿 大的贸易谈判，原因是他对安大略省政府赞助的一条广告不满。特朗普指责加拿大"欺骗性地"声称美国前总统里根反对关税。对于特朗普 的言论，加拿大总理卡尼表示，加拿大随时准备与美国重启并推进贸易谈判，但无法控制美国的贸易政策。 转载请注明央视财经 编辑：潘煦 加拿大总理 卡尼：美国关税政策及其造成的不确定性将使加拿大损失约1.8%的国内生产总值，换算下来，相当于我们的经济将损失约500 亿加元（约2531亿元人民币）。也就是说，每个加拿大人，无论男女老少，都将因此损失1300加元。如果我们现在不采取行动，这些损失 只会越来越大，沉湎于过去并不是应对之策。美国已经改变了，这是他们的权利，但我们必须作出回应。 卡尼表示，加拿大政府将通过改革运作方式、拓展贸易伙伴等方式推 ...

Group 1 - The core viewpoint indicates that the clarity of U.S. President Trump's trade and fiscal policies is increasing, prompting investors to assess the impact of these policies on inflation, the economy, and monetary policy [1] - The actual tariff rates between the U.S. and its major trading partners are projected to be between 10% and 20%, a significant increase from 2.5% at the beginning of 2025 [1] - Although tariff increases have not yet significantly impacted the U.S. economy, they may dampen consumer spending, economic growth, and corporate profits [1] - Inflationary pressures from tariffs are expected to ease next year, while economic activity remains robust with only slight declines in real-time economic indicators [1] - AI-related spending is strong, offsetting the ongoing weakness in the manufacturing and real estate sectors [1] - Factors such as tariff increases, corporate tax rate cuts, and strict immigration policies are keeping inflation expectations high, raising concerns about rising prices affecting corporate earnings and consumer sentiment [1] - The job market is a point of concern, particularly for small businesses that account for over 70% of U.S. employment but have weaker pricing power and are sensitive to economic and interest rate changes, potentially facing layoffs [1] Group 2 - Investment opportunities are focused on international value stocks and small-cap stocks, especially in regions with increased fiscal spending and accommodative monetary policies [2] - European and UK stock markets appear attractive, while U.S. growth stocks may benefit from the AI boom, providing a buffer if the economy weakens due to their solid fundamentals [2] - Stocks linked to real assets, such as energy and metals, have historically served as effective hedges against inflation [2] - The development of AI and rising electricity demand may stimulate industrial metal demand, with some metals facing supply constraints [2] - The issuance of U.S. Treasury bonds to address deficit spending may put upward pressure on yields [2] - Due to inflation concerns and the level of U.S. public debt, there is a cautious stance on long-duration U.S. Treasuries as a hedge during economic downturns [2] - In fixed income investments, there is a preference for shorter-duration assets and short-term Treasury Inflation-Protected Securities (TIPS) [2]