墨西哥经济部：将支持当地番茄生产商寻求暂停征税协议。 ...

美元指数企稳反弹，利率预期仍存不确定性 BCR每周金融市场回顾：美元企稳反弹，资产价格波动加剧 2025年7月第一周，全球金融市场围绕美联储政策预期、特朗普政府贸易政策、地缘政治动态等多个核 心变量展开博弈。美元指数整体震荡上行，避险与通胀预期并存推动贵金属维持强势，而原油和股市则 呈现分化走势。BCR为您梳理本周关键市场动向与趋势分析。 受特朗普加征关税威胁影响，加之市场对美联储降息路径存在分歧，美元指数本周震荡上扬，一度逼近 98关口，最终收于97.83，录得三周来首次周线级上涨，涨幅0.9%。当前，投资者密切关注美联储7月会 议纪要释放的信号，尽管部分委员支持降息，但整体态度仍显谨慎，政策前景存在较大不确定性。 澳元兑美元持续反弹，得益于澳洲联储意外维持利率不变，市场对未来政策转向的押注升温。英镑则录 得六连跌，反映出英国经济增长与通胀前景的双重压力。欧元则因欧洲央行官员偏鸽言论而承压。美元 兑日元则在周初上行后转入震荡，本周累计上涨近2%。 尽管特朗普再度挥舞关税"大棒"，全球风险偏好维持回暖态势。以英伟达为代表的科技巨头市值持续走 高，英伟达市值突破4万亿美元带动纳指与标普500指数一度刷新历史新高 ...

"产业政策"，只要其有效运作，其作用就在于推动一个国家的经济向价值链的更高层级发展。例如，在 美国建国初期，亚历山大.汉密尔顿就担心美国会继续沦为欧洲的经济附庸国。作为一个人口稀少且自 然资源丰富的国家，如果市场完全不受监管，美国可能会专注于向欧洲出口原材料，而欧洲则会反过来 向美国出口制成品。作为替代方案，他提议征收保护性关税以促进美国工业的发展。 美国彭博社的专栏作家马修.伊格雷西亚(Matthew Yglesias)发文狠批，美国总统特朗普提出的对进口铜 材征收50%关税的提议，体现了该政府在经济政策方面的混乱做法：它沉湎于对美国工业过往的怀旧情 绪，推行了一系列的举措将使美国制造商如今及未来的发展更加艰难。 在Truth Social平台上，特朗普指出，铜"对于半导体、飞机、船舶、弹药、数据中心、锂离子电池、雷 达系统、导弹防御系统，甚至包括我们正在大量制造的高超音速武器等产品来说都是必不可少的材 料。" 伊格雷西亚表示，提高美国人购买铜的成本会使美国在建造飞机方面变得不那么具有吸引力，从而让欧 洲、巴西和加拿大的竞争对手占据优势;这会使建立国内半导体制造业变得更加困难。它还会加剧美国 造船业本已严峻 ...

德国电视一台 13 日报道，欧洲议会国际贸易委员会主席朗格，用 "傲慢无礼" 来形容美政府的信函。他 说，欧美都密集谈判三个多星期了，还提出了保障共同利益的建议，结果特朗普突然决定加征关税，这 根本没道理，既没诚意，也缺乏应有的尊重。法新社援引德国工业联合会的表态称，美国政府这信函， 给 "大西洋两岸的工业界敲响了警钟"。意大利葡萄酒协会也表示，华盛顿这做法，在盟友关系里写下了 "最黑暗的一页"。法国《世界报》更是形容，美国这做法，对欧盟来说就像 "一记耳光"。 最近国际经济形势又有大变动啦！当地时间 7 月 12 日，美国总统特朗普宣布，自 8 月 1 日起，要对从 欧盟、墨西哥进口的商品分别征收 30% 的关税。这消息一传出，可谓是掀起了惊涛骇浪。 特朗普在社交媒体上发布了致欧盟委员会主席冯德莱恩和墨西哥总统辛鲍姆的信 。他宣称，墨西哥没能 阻止芬太尼等流入美国，在协助美国阻止非法移民入境方面也做得不到位；而欧盟呢，其关税和非关税 贸易壁垒，让美国对欧贸易出现了巨额逆差，双方关系远远称不上互惠互利。 这信里的措辞，和过去一周发给其他国家领导人的信差不多。都在警告对方别对加税进行报复，还鼓励 对方企业搬到美 ...

Core Viewpoint - The announcement of a 30% tariff on imports from Mexico and the EU by President Trump has led to increased market pressure and heightened risk aversion, resulting in declines in U.S. stock futures and slight increases in gold, the dollar, and Bitcoin [1][11]. Market Reactions - U.S. stock futures opened lower, with the S&P 500 futures down by 0.4% [1]. - The Dow Jones Industrial Average futures fell by 200.50 points, or 0.45%, while the S&P 500 and Nasdaq futures also experienced declines of 0.47% and 0.46%, respectively [2]. - Asian markets reacted with the Nikkei 225 index down 0.3% and the South Korean KOSPI remaining flat [3]. Commodity and Currency Movements - Gold prices increased by 0.5%, marking the fourth consecutive day of gains, although the increase has moderated [3]. - The U.S. dollar and Japanese yen saw slight increases against major currencies [6]. - Bitcoin experienced a temporary rise of about 1% before retreating from its recent highs [9]. Economic Context - Analysts warn that the 30% tariff is punitive and may have a more significant impact on the EU than on the U.S. itself [11]. - Upcoming economic data releases, including China's Q2 GDP and U.S. June CPI, are expected to be focal points for the market [12]. - The recent tariff announcement disrupts the previously optimistic sentiment surrounding trade negotiations [14]. Market Sentiment and Future Outlook - The market's resilience is being tested as Trump's trade threats complicate accurate pricing in financial markets [13]. - Some analysts believe that the market may overlook the trade conflict until tariffs are fully implemented, drawing lessons from past experiences [14]. - Discussions around potential changes in Federal Reserve leadership due to Trump's criticisms of Powell add further uncertainty to the market [15].

Core Insights - The latest retail sales report from the National Retail Federation (NRF) indicates a slowdown in retail sales growth in June due to consumer concerns, marking the first monthly decline since February [1] - The seasonally adjusted total retail sales excluding automobiles and gasoline decreased by 0.33% month-over-month in June, while year-over-year sales still grew by 3.19% [1] - Core retail sales (excluding auto dealers, gas stations, and restaurants) also saw a month-over-month decline of 0.32% in June, with a year-over-year increase of 3.36% [1] Monthly Performance - The overall retail sales for the first half of the year increased by 4.66% year-over-year, while core retail sales rose by 4.93% [2] - The June decline is the first since February, when both total and core retail sales fell by 0.22% compared to January [2] Consumer Behavior - Matthew Shay, CEO of NRF, noted that long-term uncertainties surrounding the economy, tariffs, and trade policies are causing consumers to adopt a "wait-and-see" approach regarding household budgets [1] - Despite the economic slowdown, consumers still have the capacity to spend on necessities, but their psychological outlook is being affected [1] Category Performance - In June, seven categories experienced year-over-year growth, with digital products, sporting goods stores, and health and personal care stores leading the way [2] - Only one category showed month-over-month growth, while the rest declined [2] - Specific category performance includes: - Digital products: Seasonally adjusted month-over-month growth of 0.26% and a year-over-year surge of 24.11% [2] - Health and personal care stores: Seasonally adjusted month-over-month decline of 0.31% and year-over-year growth of 3.47% [3] - General merchandise stores: Seasonally adjusted month-over-month decline of 0.15% and year-over-year growth of 3.18% [4] - Food and beverage stores: Seasonally adjusted month-over-month decline of 0.13% and year-over-year growth of 2.59% [5] - Electronics and appliance stores: Seasonally adjusted month-over-month decline of 1.03% and year-over-year growth of 2.43% [6] - Furniture and home furnishings stores: Seasonally adjusted month-over-month decline of 1.04% and year-over-year decline of 1.14% [7] - Building materials and garden supplies stores: Seasonally adjusted month-over-month decline of 0.76% and year-over-year decline of 5.33% [8]

1. Report Industry Investment Rating No information provided. 2. Core Views of the Report - This week, the main contract of Zhengzhou cotton 2509 rose with a weekly increase of about 0.76%, and the cotton yarn futures 2509 contract rose by 0.47%. The international cotton market is affected by factors such as the US cotton export sales report and weather, while the domestic textile industry is in a consumption off - season, with weak demand and cautious raw material procurement by enterprises. Cotton is in a de - stocking state, and high - temperature weather in some areas of Xinjiang supports the price to fluctuate strongly. Overall, the market shows a slightly stronger oscillatory trend, and attention should be paid to weather and macro factors [6][19]. 3. Summary According to Relevant Catalogs 3.1 Weekly Points Summary - **Market Analysis**: The main contract of Zhengzhou cotton 2509 rose by about 0.76% this week, and the cotton yarn futures 2509 contract rose by 0.47%. In the international market, the US cotton export sales report was not as expected, and the favorable weather led to an increase in the excellent - good rate of US cotton, suppressing the price of US cotton. In the domestic market, the textile industry is in a consumption off - season, with poor new orders and a slow decline in the overall operating rate. Enterprises are cautious in purchasing raw materials. As of July 10, the operating load of spinning enterprises in mainstream areas was 70.40%, a month - on - month decrease of 0.84% [6]. - **Market Outlook**: Cotton is in a de - stocking state, and there is a high risk of high - temperature heat damage to cotton in some areas of Xinjiang, which supports the price to fluctuate strongly. However, the weak demand drags down the price rhythm, so the overall trend is slightly stronger oscillatory. Attention should be paid to weather and macro factors [6]. - **Future Trading Tips**: Pay attention to changes in the price of foreign cotton, macro factors, trade policies, and weather factors [6]. 3.2 Futures and Spot Market Conditions - **US Cotton Market**: The price of the US cotton December contract fell this week, with a weekly decline of about 1.04%. As of June 24, 2025, the non - commercial long - position of ICE No. 2 cotton increased by 5.61% month - on - month, the non - commercial short - position decreased by 1.86% month - on - month, and the net position increased by 14.91% month - on - month [9]. - **Foreign Cotton Spot Market**: As of July 3, 2025, the net increase in US cotton export sales in the current market year was 75,100 bales, a 217% increase compared to the previous four weeks and a 55% increase compared to the four - week average. The cotton export volume was 240,900 bales, a 6% decrease compared to the previous week and a 9% increase compared to the four - week average. As of July 8, 2025, the Cotlook:A index was 78.75 cents per pound, a 0.51% month - on - month decrease [14]. - **Futures Market**: The main contract of Zhengzhou cotton 2509 rose by about 0.76% this week, and the cotton yarn futures 2509 contract rose by 0.47%. As of this week, the net position of the top 20 in cotton futures was - 15,063, and that in cotton yarn futures was 29 lots. The number of cotton futures warehouse receipts was 9,850, and that of cotton yarn futures warehouse receipts was 91 [19][24][31]. - **Futures and Spot Price Difference**: This week, the price difference between the Zhengzhou cotton 9 - 1 contract was 65 yuan per ton, and the price difference between cotton 3128B and cotton yarn C32S spot prices was 5,224 yuan per ton [32]. - **Spot Market**: As of July 11, 2025, the spot price index of cotton 3128B was 15,266 yuan per ton, and the spot price index of Chinese cotton yarn C32S was 20,490 yuan per ton. As of July 10, 2025, the CY index:OEC10s (air - flow yarn) was 14,560 yuan per ton [37][46]. - **Imported Cotton (Yarn) Cost**: As of July 9, 2025, the 1% quota port pick - up price of the imported cotton price index (FC Index):M was 13,545 yuan per ton, a 0.64% month - on - month decrease; the sliding - scale duty port pick - up price was 14,324 yuan per ton, a 0.37% month - on - month decrease. The port pick - up price of the imported cotton yarn price index (FCY Index):C32S was 21,061 yuan per ton, a 0.08% month - on - month increase; the port pick - up price of C21S was 20,086 yuan per ton, a 0.10% month - on - month increase; the port pick - up price of JC32S was 22,990 yuan per ton, a 0.09% month - on - month increase [52]. - **Imported Cotton Cost and Profit**: As of July 9, 2025, the cost profit of the imported cotton sliding - scale duty port pick - up price (M) was 816 yuan per ton, and the cost profit of the imported cotton quota port pick - up price (1%) was 1,561 yuan per ton [55]. 3.3 Industrial Chain Conditions - **Supply Side - Commercial Cotton Inventory**: As of May, the total national commercial cotton inventory was 3.4587 million tons, a month - on - month decrease of 693,900 tons or - 16.71%, and a year - on - year decrease of 315,400 tons or - 8.36%. As of June 15, the in - stock industrial inventory of cotton in textile enterprises was 930,100 tons, a month - on - month decrease of 1.17% [59]. - **Supply Side - Imported Cotton Volume**: In May 2025, China imported about 40,000 tons of cotton, a month - on - month decrease of about 20,000 tons and a year - on - year decrease of about 86.3%. From September 2024 to May 2025, China imported about 920,000 tons of cotton. In May 2025, China's cotton yarn import volume was 100,000 tons, a year - on - year decrease of about 20,000 tons or 14.5%, and a month - on - month decrease of about 20,000 tons or about 16.67%. From January to May 2025, the cumulative imported cotton yarn was 560,000 tons, a year - on - year decrease of 15.8% [63]. - **Mid - end Industry - Demand Side**: As of June 15, the yarn inventory of textile enterprises was 23.864 days, a month - on - month increase of 6.8%, and the grey cloth inventory was 35.46 days, a month - on - month increase of 7.81% [67]. - **Terminal Consumption - Demand Side**: From January to May 2025, the cumulative export of textile and clothing was 838.33 billion yuan, a 2.1% increase compared to the same period last year. Among them, the export of textiles was 420.14 billion yuan, a 3.7% increase, and the export of clothing was 418.19 billion yuan, a 0.6% increase. In May, the export of textile and clothing was 188.84 billion yuan, a 0.2% year - on - year increase and an 8.9% month - on - month increase. Among them, the export of textiles was 91 billion yuan, a 2.3% decrease and a 0.9% month - on - month increase, and the export of clothing was 97.84 billion yuan, a 2.6% increase and a 17.6% month - on - month increase [71]. - **Downstream Terminal Consumption - Demand Side**: As of May 2025, the cumulative retail sales of clothing, shoes, hats, needles, and textiles were 613.8 billion yuan, a 3.3% year - on - year increase [75]. 3.4 Option and Stock Market - related Market - **Option Market**: This week, the implied volatility of at - the - money options for cotton was analyzed, but specific data was not provided [76]. - **Stock Market - Xinjiang Nongkai Development Co., Ltd.**: The price - earnings ratio trend of Xinjiang Nongkai Development Co., Ltd. was analyzed, but specific data was not provided [80].

Group 1 - The U.S. will impose a 50% tariff on copper imports starting August 1, 2025, which is expected to have severe impacts on the copper market and Chilean exporters [1] - Chile is a major supplier of copper to the U.S., accounting for approximately 70% of U.S. copper imports in 2024, with exports valued at over $6 billion in 2023 [1] - The new tariffs have already driven copper prices to historical highs, influenced by both actual supply shortages and speculative trading [1] Group 2 - Although the U.S. market accounts for less than 13% of Chile's total copper exports, the tariff's impact extends beyond trade volume, potentially weakening the Chilean peso and increasing local costs [2] - A decline in copper export revenues could exacerbate Chile's public finance pressures, as public debt was 42% of GDP and the fiscal deficit was 2.9% in the previous year [2] - Chilean officials and industry leaders face strategic decisions on whether to risk losing the U.S. market or to explore opportunities in other markets, particularly in Asia and Europe [2]

从贸易战到被称为"广场协议2.0"的"海湖庄园协议"发布，这背后是否暗示着美元体系陷入了困境？ 2024年11月，被称为"海湖庄园协议"的一份报告正式发布，这份报告旨在通过高关税、美元贬值、债务置换与多边货币谈判、安全保护费等手段，重构全球 经济治理格局。 2025年7月5日，在"2025中美贸易战略重构研讨会"上，12位国内高校专家学者围绕"'海湖庄园协议'对全球经贸重构的影响与中国应对"展开深入探讨。多位 专家对"美元体系的内在困境"做了分析和解答，并回答了美国金融权利能否被撼动这一关键问题。研讨会由对外经济贸易大学、新京报社和全国高校国际贸 易学科协作组联合主办。 美元的金融地位并非由贸易差决定 中山大学国际金融学院院长黄新飞教授指出，美元地位的核心逻辑不取决于美国贸易的顺逆差，而是由制度输出能力、军事安全承诺与资产稳定供给三者构 成。 主办单位:对外 hi 承办单位:对外 N 中山大学国际金融学院院长黄新飞教授在研讨会上发言。摄/新京报记者 王贵彬 黄新飞表示，美元储备地位的内在困境，是在布雷顿森林体系确立美元储备货币地位后，美元向全球提供流动性的同时，也必然造成持续的贸易与经常账户 赤字，"美元的需 ...

美东时间7月10日周四，媒体援引知情者消息称，本周三，纽约精品投行Allen & Co.举行的公司年会 上，主持人要求贝森特比较他的现任和前任老板，贝森特表示，特朗普和索罗斯两人的脾气和要求、以 及对待事情不耐烦这点都相似。他建议特朗普，在双方讨论贸易公告时保持耐心。 知情者称，在上述不公开的公司年会闭门讨论期间，贝森特称赞特朗普，拥有发现问题和找到解决方案 的独到能力，但也表示，特朗普在执行过程中有时缺乏耐心。 美国财长贝森特被传在最近的一场闭门会议上爆特朗普的料，暗示他可能在特朗普的贸易政策上有影响 力。 据知情者，贝森特在回答现场听众提问时试图淡化特朗普政府关税对通胀的影响，并预测，今年美联储 将有两次降息。他还说，长期借贷成本可能与新冠疫情前持平。 目前不清楚贝森特对最近特朗普的关税决策有多大影响。据央视新闻，7月7日周一，也就是对日韩等14 国发函通知8月1日起新对等关税生效当天，特朗普签署了行政命令，延长所谓"对等关税"暂缓期，将实 施时间从7月9日推迟到8月1日。 特朗普的行政令相当于将7月9日这个之前的关税"大限"推迟到了三周多之后的8月1日。这实际上为贸易 伙伴延长了谈判时间，将谈判截止期延 ...