黄金行情： 近期黄金与白银短期技术形态完成明确看涨转向，均线多头排列配合量能突破，吸引大量技术型投机者 涌入多头阵营。这一趋势与宏观利好形成共振：美国政府重启消除政策不确定性，避险情绪与流动性宽 松预期提振贵金属估值；美国经济数据发布恢复，为美联储12月降息研判提供依据，若数据温和降温， 将进一步巩固宽松预期，助力金银涨势。不过，市场狂热背后需警惕分歧：若涨势纯由通胀驱动，通胀 黏性超预期可能导致美联储推迟降息，风险资产或迎深度调整；若2026年"关税通胀"叙事降温，黄金抗 通胀溢价削弱，涨势可能阶段性休整，届时风险资产有望喘息，而流动性宽松背景下黄金与股市仍可能 并行上涨。 昨日黄金延续拉升节奏，呈现"探底回升+破位加速"特征。早盘开于4127.8，冲高至4146.2后快速回落， 日线最低触及4098.8（测试前期震荡区间上沿支撑，形成企稳信号），随后多头反攻突破前日高点，量 能放大推动行情加速上行，最高触及4212.3后整理，最终收于4195.2，以一根下影线长于上影线的大阳 线报收，彰显多头动能强劲。 力）；关键支撑：下方关注4150-4125一线（4150为颈线位与5日均线共振，4125为10日均线与 ...

Core Points - The article discusses the impact of Canada's new sanctions against Russia and the halt of peace talks between Ukraine and Russia, which have led to increased risk aversion and a surge in gold prices, reaching a three-week high of $4,201.4 per ounce [1] - The sanctions include 13 individuals and 11 entities, targeting those involved in Russia's drone projects, cyber attack infrastructure, and several liquefied natural gas companies [1] - The market is also reacting to concerns over a potential Federal Reserve interest rate cut in December due to a weak job market and economic growth worries stemming from a prolonged government shutdown [1] Group 1 - Gold prices have risen by 2.07% to $4,201.4 per ounce, driven by geopolitical tensions and economic concerns [1] - The Canadian sanctions target key players in Russia's military and energy sectors, indicating a significant escalation in the geopolitical landscape [1] - The halt of peace negotiations by Ukraine until at least the end of the year reflects a deteriorating situation that may further influence market dynamics [1] Group 2 - The market's increased bets on a December rate cut by the Federal Reserve are influenced by economic indicators and geopolitical risks [1] - The performance of gold ETFs, such as 华夏 (518850) and 黄金股ETF (159562), showed a decline of 0.38%, indicating mixed investor sentiment despite rising gold prices [1]

隔夜美股三大指数涨跌不一，中概指数跌1.46%。港股三大指数集体低开，恒指跌0.53%，国指跌 0.5%，恒生科技指数跌0.82%。权重科技股集体走低，京东跌2.57%，快手跌2%，阿里巴巴跌1.85%， 腾讯跌超1%，百度、美团跌0.79%；欧佩克将石油市场展望转为过剩，美国原油期货收跌约4.2%，连续 上涨的石油股回调，中国海洋石油跌2.35%，汽车股、濠赌股等多数下跌。另外，避险情绪升温，黄金 股集体强势，赤峰黄金、灵宝黄金涨近3%。(格隆汇) ...

Core Viewpoint - Gold prices have shown a complex upward trend despite short-term fluctuations, driven by geopolitical tensions and economic uncertainties [5]. Price Movement - As of the latest report, London gold is priced at $4130.98 per ounce, with a daily increase of 0.1% and a low of $4098.41 during the session [1][2]. - COMEX gold futures have also risen, currently at $4134.4 per ounce, reflecting a 0.44% increase with a session high of $4151.5 [3][4]. Market Analysis - Analysts indicate that the current gold price volatility is influenced by profit-taking and market attention, with overall support from risk aversion and expectations of interest rate cuts [5]. - The global economic uncertainty and geopolitical risks are significant factors pushing gold prices higher, while the strength of the US dollar may exert pressure on gold prices [5]. Investment Strategy - Investment strategies suggest that ordinary investors should avoid short-term high-risk trades and consider including gold in long-term asset allocations [6]. - A phased investment approach is recommended, focusing on Federal Reserve policy signals and central bank gold purchases, while being mindful of the dollar's credit changes [6].

Group 1 - The core viewpoint indicates that the expectation for a Federal Reserve rate cut in December has increased due to weak employment data, with a 67.6% probability for a 25 basis point cut [1] - The ADP report revealed that the U.S. private sector cut 45,000 jobs in October, marking the largest decline since March 2023, suggesting a significant weakening in the labor market [1] - The labor market's resilience narrative is being challenged as layoffs reach a 20-year high for this time of year, indicating broader economic concerns [1] Group 2 - Despite favorable macroeconomic conditions, gold prices have faced volatility after reaching historical highs, with gold ETFs experiencing net outflows for three consecutive weeks as investors take profits [2] - The dual drivers of "rate cut expectations" and "risk aversion" are expected to dominate the market if labor market cooling is confirmed, suggesting that any technical pullbacks in gold prices could present long-term investment opportunities [2] - The long-term upward trend for gold remains solid and clear, indicating continued bullish sentiment in the market [2]

Group 1 - The latest ADP Research report indicates that U.S. private companies are cutting an average of approximately 11,250 jobs per week as of October 25, signaling potential economic slowdown [1] - Following the release of the ADP data, the U.S. dollar index fell to a low of 99.29, while gold prices surged to around $4,147 per ounce [1] - The U.S. Senate passed a compromise plan to end the longest government shutdown in history, which had disrupted food assistance for millions and affected federal employees and air traffic [1] Group 2 - Analysts view the end of the government shutdown as a "calm before the data storm," anticipating that if labor market weakness persists, the Federal Reserve's monetary policy may shift from "cautious observation" to "conditional easing" [2] - Gold is expected to benefit from both rate cut expectations and safe-haven demand in the coming weeks, with a potential price target of $4,700 per ounce if political and financial risks increase significantly [2] Group 3 - Technical analysis of gold shows a bullish outlook, but the upward trend is currently stagnant, forming a doji pattern indicating a balance of buying and selling pressure [3] - The Relative Strength Index (RSI) suggests that gold prices may have further upside potential, with resistance levels at $4,160 and $4,200 per ounce, while a drop below $4,000 could lead to further declines [3] Group 4 - The daily chart for gold (XAUUSD) indicates a bullish bias with resistance levels at 4143, 4151, and 4171, and support levels at 4124, 4116, and 4106 [4] Group 5 - The daily chart for the Euro against the U.S. dollar (EURUSD) shows a bearish trend with resistance levels at 1.1594, 1.1622, and 1.1638, and support levels at 1.1566, 1.1558, and 1.1557 [5]

Group 1 - Gold prices showed strength, reaching a peak of $4155 before retreating to $4102, and closing at $4133.2 per ounce, up 0.27% [1] - The China Gold ETF (518850) increased by 1.40%, while the Gold Stock ETF (159562) decreased by 0.65% [1] - The ADP Research Institute reported a significant decline in U.S. private sector payrolls, with an average weekly reduction of 11,250 jobs over the four weeks ending October 25, totaling a loss of 45,000 jobs for the month, the largest drop since March 2023 [1] Group 2 - Weak employment data has strengthened expectations for interest rate cuts, suggesting a shift in the Federal Reserve's monetary policy from "cautious observation" to "conditional easing" if labor market weakness persists [1] - The combination of interest rate cut expectations and risk aversion is likely to continue benefiting gold in the coming weeks [1]

来源：市场资讯 消息面： 11月11日，金价周一强势上涨，单日涨幅达2.8%，收于每盎司4111.39美元，创下两周多以来的最高收 盘水平。上周公布的疲软经济数据使市场对美联储政策的预期转向鸽派，12月降息的可能性依然较高。 近期数据显示美国10月就业岗位减少，消费者信心显著下滑，这些因素共同强化了市场的宽松货币政策 预期。根据CME FedWatch工具，目前市场定价显示12月降息概率为64%，至明年1月概率进一步攀升至 77%。有分析师预计，到今年年底黄金价格可能升至每盎司4200-4300美元区间，并认为明年第一季度 达到5000美元仍是一个合理目标。与此同时，美国参议院周日推进结束政府停摆的法案，也为市场消除 了一个不确定性因素，进一步支撑了黄金的避险吸引力。 国际黄金： 昨日黄金持续反弹，行情重回极端情绪化看涨状态，日线收得一实体饱和大阳线，贯穿突破20日线4080 压力，站上4110上方。回顾昨日黄金上涨，主要原因还是受美政府停摆担忧、美联储降息预期以及地缘 局势带来的避险情绪加持影响，而这种偏激看涨情绪沉寂一段时间后，突然又再度被集中拿来炒作，导 致行情走势显得诡谲异常，对此务必还是要谨慎对待， ...

避险情绪升温，金价正重回强势区间。 11月11日，现货黄金价格再次走高，伦敦金现价盘中一度突破4145美元/盎司。券商中国记者注意到，尽管10 月下旬金价一度跌破3900美元/盎司，但资金并未退场，黄金ETF持续获得增量资金。 具体来看，公募市场代表性黄金ETF产品近期逆势扩容，央行与海外机构亦同步增持黄金，全球配置热度持续 升温。业内人士认为，降息预期与长期配置需求共振，将继续支撑黄金市场活跃度。 美政府停摆与AI担忧叠加，黄金重回强势区间 11月11日，现货黄金价格走高， 再次突破4100美元关口，截至发稿，报 4132 美元/盎司 。 回顾此前一周，伦敦现货黄金收于4000美元/盎司，周环比微跌0.1%；国内AU9999黄金收于918元/ 克，亦小幅回落0.1%，金价在震荡中逐步 企稳。 支撑金价稳中趋强的背后，是美国政治与市场双重不确定性交织。华安基金分析称，截至当地时间11月10日， 美国政府关门持续41天，打破历史最长纪录。停摆原因表面是美国两党对政府预算中削减医疗补助的分歧，而 更深层次则反映了美国政治的极化加剧。 华安基金认为，政府停摆对美国经济的负面影响不断上升，阻碍了社会秩序的正常运作，亦 ...

Report Industry Investment Ratings - Iron ore: Oscillatory adjustment [2] - Coking coal and coke: Oscillatory [2] - Rolled steel and rebar: Oscillatory [2] - Glass: Oscillatory [2] - Soda ash: Oscillatory [2] - CSI 50: Oscillatory [2] - CSI 300: Oscillatory [2] - CSI 500: Rebound [4] - CSI 1000: Rebound [4] - 2 - year Treasury bond: Oscillatory [4] - 5 - year Treasury bond: Oscillatory [4] - 10 - year Treasury bond: Upward [4] - Gold: Strong - biased oscillation [4] - Silver: Strong - biased oscillation [4] - Logs: Bottom - oscillatory [6] - Pulp: Bottom - rebound [6] - Offset paper: Oscillatory [6] - Soybean oil: Range - bound operation [6] - Palm oil: Range - bound operation [6] - Rapeseed oil: Range - bound operation [6] - Soybean meal: Oscillatory [6] - Rapeseed meal: Oscillatory [6] - Soybean No. 2: Oscillatory [7] - Soybean No. 1: Oscillatory [7] - Live pigs: Oscillatory and slightly stronger [7] - Rubber: Oscillatory [9] - PX: On - the - sidelines [9] - PTA: Oscillatory [9] - MEG: Wide - range oscillation [9] - PR: On - the - sidelines [9] - PF: On - the - sidelines [9] Core Viewpoints - The black industry is affected by macro and fundamental factors, with supply - demand imbalances in some products and price trends mainly oscillatory [2] - The financial market, including stock index futures, options, and bonds, shows different trends, with the overall market having short - term adjustments and a medium - term upward trend [4] - Precious metals are supported by factors such as central bank gold purchases, geopolitical risks, and inflation data, showing a strong - biased oscillatory trend [4] - Light industry products like logs and pulp have complex supply - demand situations, with prices showing bottom - oscillatory or bottom - rebound trends [6] - Oils and fats and oilseeds are affected by factors such as production, demand, and policies, with overall range - bound operations and oscillatory trends for some products [6][7] - Agricultural products like live pigs have complex supply - demand relationships, with prices showing oscillatory and slightly stronger or downward trends [7] - Soft commodities such as rubber and chemical products in the polyester industry are affected by factors such as weather, supply, and demand, with prices showing oscillatory or wide - range oscillatory trends [9] Summary by Category Black Industry - **Iron ore**: The total arrival volume at 47 ports in China decreased by 544,800 tons to 2.7693 million tons, a 16.44% drop. The iron water output continued to decline, and the port inventory increased. The supply - demand surplus pattern is difficult to reverse, and the short - term trend is mainly oscillatory [2] - **Coking coal and coke**: The Fed's interest - rate cut, improved Sino - US relations, and low coal inventory support the price. The core contradiction is the low profit of steel mills. The short - term trend is high - level oscillation [2] - **Rolled steel and rebar**: The macro - level good news has landed, and the price has returned to the fundamentals. The demand for steel is weak, and the price stop - falling depends on production reduction and policy implementation [2] - **Glass**: The news of coal - to - gas conversion in Shahe is fermenting, with 4 production lines to be cold - repaired. The demand is weak, and the inventory is increasing. The price trend depends on production - line cold - repair and policies [2] Financial Market - **Stock index futures/options**: The market shows short - term adjustments and a medium - term upward trend. It is recommended to hold long positions in stock indices [4] - **Treasury bonds**: The yield of the 10 - year Treasury bond is flat, and the central bank has carried out reverse - repurchase operations. It is recommended to hold long positions in Treasury bonds lightly [4] Precious Metals - **Gold and silver**: Affected by factors such as central bank gold purchases, geopolitical risks, and inflation data, the short - term trend is strong - biased oscillation [4] Light Industry - **Logs**: The port inventory is increasing, the demand is difficult to maintain, and the price is expected to oscillate at the bottom [6] - **Pulp**: The cost support is weakening, the demand is poor, and the price is expected to rebound from the bottom [6] - **Offset paper**: The supply pressure exists, the market expectation is cautious, and the price is expected to oscillate [6] Oils and Fats and Oilseeds - **Oils and fats**: The production of Malaysian palm oil is high, the export is strong, and the supply in China is abundant. The overall trend is range - bound operation [6] - **Oilseeds**: The impact of China's tariff policy on the US is short - term, and the supply of domestic soybean meal is increasing. The price trend is oscillatory [6][7] Agricultural Products - **Live pigs**: The average trading weight is slightly rising, the supply is expected to increase, and the demand support is limited. The weekly average price may decline [7] Soft Commodities and Polyester Industry - **Rubber**: The supply is affected by weather, the demand is improving, and the inventory is decreasing. The price is expected to oscillate widely [9] - **PX, PTA, MEG, PR, PF**: Affected by factors such as the end of the US government shutdown, oil prices, and supply - demand relationships, the price trends are oscillatory, wide - range oscillatory, or on - the - sidelines [9]