能够激发市场避险情绪的事件越来越少。以色列和伊朗，6月24日正式结束冲突；泰国和柬埔寨7月28日结束冲突。现如今，持续三年多时间的 俄罗斯和乌克兰冲突，也面临偃旗息鼓的局面。 本周一，美国总统在与乌克兰总统泽连斯基会晤后表示，已经开始计划俄罗斯总统普京与泽连斯基的会晤，地点尚未确定。此次会晤后，特朗 普还将举行包括普京、泽连斯基和他本人的三方会晤。已经有政府官员声称，俄罗斯和乌克兰的会晤将会在未来两周内进行，地点有可能在匈 牙利。 从媒体报道来看，俄罗斯和乌克兰签署和平协议，已经是大概率事件。或者说，已经是市场的主流预期。延续三年多时间的避险情绪，在面对 和平协议大概率签署的局面时，将会彻底丧失对国际金价的提振作用。 黄金的最新报价在3338美元上下，距离历史最高点3499美元仅有161美元差距，金价依旧处于相对历史高位区间。但是，这种抗跌的属性并不主 要来自于避险属性，而是主要来自于美元指数的下跌。 特朗普入主白宫以来，各项激进的对内和对外措施，令华尔街以及全球金融机构无比紧张和失望。资金纷纷出逃美国，导致美元指数持续重 挫。今年1月份，美元指数最高触及110.18高点，现如今，美元指数最低跌至96.37， ...

各位朋友，晚上好。我是帮主郑重。近日市场波动加剧，标普500已连续四个交易日收跌，这一信号值得高度警惕。凭借20年财经观察经验，我深知这种 连续回调往往预示更深层次的调整正在酝酿。今天就来为大家梳理背后的核心动因。 ⚠️ 首要焦点仍是美联储政策动向。最新会议纪要显示，委员对通胀的担忧远超就业，尤其关注特朗普关税政策可能带来的冲击。这一态度暗示货币政策 可能进一步转向鹰派，加息预期再度升温。通胀犹如悬顶之剑，一旦失控，市场恐将面临剧烈调整。 科技巨头英特尔计划折价增资，同样引发忧虑。折价往往意味着企业融资困难或市场信心不足，当日英特尔股价大跌近7%，不仅反映个体困境，更折射 整个科技板块承压。作为市场风向标，科技股走弱可能引发资金大规模调仓。 更值得警惕的是，橡树资本明确警告美股处于"泡沫初期"。标普500市盈率高企，巴菲特指标亦创历史峰值，市场估值已明显偏离合理区间，回调风险正 在累积。 其他市场中，中概股走势出现分化，富途控股上涨而台积电走低，反映同一板块内部分歧加剧。大宗商品方面，WTI原油因地缘局势与库存下降而走高， 可能进一步推升通胀；黄金攀升至3350美元附近，显示避险情绪正在升温。欧洲富时100指 ...

来源：市场资讯 8月21日，昨日周二我们认为，市场对美联储9月降息的押注有所减少，降息预期降温，以及俄乌冲突出 现和平的希望，抑制避险需求，这对黄金构成压制，不过由于美联储9月份仍大概率降息25个基点，以 及特朗普的关税政策吸引避险买盘，仍对金价形成支撑，限制进一步回落的空间，因此操作上建议大 家，上方压力关注3345和3358美元，下方支撑关注3330和3323美元。 从之后的走势看，欧盘盘中，黄金继续震荡回升，刷新当日新高3345美元，遇阻后金价震荡回落，跌势 在美盘开盘后进一步扩大，最低跌至3314美元企稳。周三开盘，黄金进一步下探，跌至3311美元企稳， 目前价格小幅回升，暂时交投于3324美元。总体来看，黄金承压震荡，金价在我们给出的3345美元压力 位置遇阻下跌，短线波动比预期要弱。 Wolfinance星级分析师认为，本周黄金继续承压，日内刷新近三周新低，主要受到三方面的因素影响： 其一，是上周中美经贸会谈，将关税休战期限延长90天，缓解了市场对美国总统特朗普新一轮关税措施 的担忧情绪；其二，是美国总统特朗普推动俄乌领导人会晤，希望加速结束冲突，美国白宫表示俄乌领 导人双边会谈筹备中，和平谈判加 ...

1. 今日凌晨，美联储公布的7月会议纪要显示，7月会上，几乎全体决策者支持暂不降息，只有两人反对。 1、股市再度走强压制债市情绪，银行间主要利率债收益率普遍上行1-2bp左右；国债期货多数收跌，30年期主力合约跌0.35%。央行开展6160亿元逆回购操 作，净投放4975亿元，加上税期走款基本结束，流动性紧势有所缓解。 2、中国新一期LPR出炉，1年期为3.0%，5年期以上为3.5%，连续三月保持不变。 华安期货：8月21日国债建议可逢低布局多单 重要信息： 核心逻辑： 建议可逢低布局多单。 近期金融市场风险偏好回升，股债跷跷板效应明显，压制债市情绪，国债期货连续震荡偏弱。总体，随着政府债券发行规模逐步达到及度过高峰，债市供给 压力有望缓和。同时，地缘因素及贸易政策变化仍有很大变数，对全球经济格局及金融环境有潜在冲击，避险情绪利好债市。 市场展望： ...

【黄金期货行情表现】 8月20日，沪金主力暂报772.90元/克，跌幅达0.32%，今日沪金主力开盘价774.72元/克，截至目前最高 775.54元/克，最低770.38元/克。 【宏观消息】 2025年8月18日，中共中央政治局委员、外交部长王毅在新德里同印度外交部长苏杰生举行会谈。双方 就共同关心的双边、地区和国际问题进行了积极、建设性、前瞻性讨论，达成以下共识和成果。 据消息，美国总统特朗普19日说，美方将帮助乌克兰进行防卫，但不会向乌克兰派出地面部队，"这一 点我可以保证"。一名白宫官员当天证实，特朗普"强调"不会向乌克兰派兵，但美国有其他方式确保乌 克兰受到保护。报道提到，不让美军部队卷入海外冲突是特朗普去年竞选总统时的承诺之一。 特朗普同时重申，乌克兰不会获准加入北约。但按照他的说法，一些欧洲国家已经同意为乌克兰提供类 似北约所能够提供的保护措施，包括安全保障。上述白宫官员说，美国及其欧洲盟友和乌克兰将继续讨 论如何为乌克兰提供安全保障。 当地时间8月19日，欧洲理事会举行视频会议讨论乌克兰问题华盛顿会晤。欧盟外交与安全政策高级代 表卡拉斯在会后表示，欧盟领导人都致力于实现持久和平，以保护乌克兰 ...

华安期货：8月20日国债期货连续震荡偏弱 重要信息： 1、股市走弱叠加央行逆回购放量安抚市场情绪，现券期货震荡暂企稳。银行间主要利率债收益率多数下行，1年以内的短券表现较弱；国债期 货全线收涨，30年期主力合约涨0.23%。央行开展5803亿元逆回购操作，净投放4657亿元，银行间资金面整体仍维持小幅收敛态势。 2、央行新增支农支小再贷款额度1000亿元，引导和鼓励金融机构加大对北京、河北、吉林、山东、甘肃等受灾地区的经营主体特别是小微企 业、个体工商户，以及农业、养殖企业和农户的信贷支持力度。 核心逻辑： 近期金融市场风险偏好回升，股债跷跷板效应明显，压制债市情绪，国债期货连续震荡偏弱。总体，随着政府债券发行规模逐步达到及度过高 峰，债市供给压力有望缓和。同时，地缘因素及贸易政策变化仍有很大变数，对全球经济格局及金融环境有潜在冲击，避险情绪利好债市。 市场展望： 建议可逢低布局多单。 ...

Report Industry Investment Rating No relevant information provided. Core Viewpoints - Gold: Due to the preparation for the Russia-Ukraine meeting, the sharp decline of US technology stocks and Bitcoin, the gold price continued to fall. The premium of Shanghai gold continued to expand to 2.6 yuan/gram. Waiting for the central bank annual meeting, with good expectations for Russia-Ukraine peace talks, the gold price will fluctuate [4]. - Silver: With the preparation for the Russia-Ukraine meeting and the sharp decline of US technology stocks and Bitcoin, the risk appetite significantly cooled down, and the decline of silver price significantly widened. The premium of Shanghai silver remained at around 415 yuan/kg. Waiting for the central bank annual meeting, with the cooling of risk appetite, the downward pressure on silver price increased [5]. Summary by Relevant Catalogs 1. Previous Day's Review - Gold: US three major stock indexes closed mixed, European three major stock indexes rose across the board; US bond yields fell collectively, the 10-year US bond yield fell 2.54 basis points to 4.306%; the US dollar index rose 0.12% to 98.28, the offshore RMB against the US dollar slightly depreciated to 7.1882; COMEX gold futures fell 0.57% to $3358.90 per ounce [4]. - Silver: The situation is similar to that of gold, and COMEX silver futures fell 1.84% to $37.33 per ounce [5]. 2. Daily Tips - Gold: The base difference shows that the spot is at a discount to the futures, the inventory of gold futures decreased by 12 kilograms to 36333 kilograms, the 20-day moving average is downward, the K-line is below the 20-day moving average, and the main net long position decreased [4]. - Silver: The base difference shows that the spot is at a discount to the futures, the inventory of Shanghai silver futures increased by 11020 kilograms to 1149446 kilograms, the 20-day moving average is downward, the K-line is above the 20-day moving average, and the main net long position decreased [5]. 3. Today's Focus - There are a series of economic data releases and events today, including China's LPR, the introduction of parade preparation work by the State Council Information Office, the final value of the Eurozone's July CPI, and intensive speeches by Fed members [4]. 4. Fundamental Data - Gold: The logic is that after Trump took office, the world entered a period of extreme turmoil and change, the inflation expectation shifted to the economic recession expectation, and the gold price was difficult to fall. The verification between the expected and actual policies of the new US government will continue, and the gold price sentiment is high and still prone to rise and difficult to fall [9]. - Silver: The logic is that after Trump took office, the world entered a period of extreme turmoil and change, the inflation expectation shifted to the economic recession expectation, and the silver price still mainly followed the gold price. The concern about tariffs has a stronger impact on the silver price itself, and the silver price is prone to an enlarged increase [12]. 5. Position Data - Gold: The long position of the top 20 in Shanghai gold decreased by 0.84%, the short position decreased by 0.21%, and the net position decreased by 2.74% [29]. - Silver: The long position of the top 20 in Shanghai silver decreased by 1.18%, the short position decreased by 1.31%, and the net position increased by 0.26% [32]. - Gold ETF: The position of SPDR Gold ETF increased slightly [34]. - Silver ETF: The position of silver ETF decreased slightly, but it is still higher than that of the same period in the past two years [37]. - Warehouse receipts: The warehouse receipts of Shanghai gold, COMEX gold, Shanghai silver, and COMEX silver all increased slightly, and the COMEX gold warehouse receipts are still at a high level [38][39][41].

Group 1 - The US dollar index rebounded above the 98 mark, closing up 0.31% at 98.12 [2][3] - Spot gold initially rose but then fell, reaching a high near 3360 before closing down 0.09% at 3332.67 USD/oz [2][3] - Spot silver closed up 0.09% at 38.00 USD/oz [2][3] Group 2 - Key developments in the Russia-Ukraine conflict have reduced market risk aversion, with Ukraine potentially securing US security guarantees through significant military purchases [3] - A breakthrough in the Middle East, with Hamas accepting a new ceasefire plan, further diminished the demand for gold as a safe haven [3] - Signs of economic weakness in the US, such as a drop in the homebuilder confidence index to a two-and-a-half-year low, have reinforced expectations for monetary easing [3]

Report Industry Investment Ratings No relevant content Core Views of the Report - For rubber, supply remains stable, short - term rain affects new rubber release, cost support is strong, but downstream production control in late August may slow inventory reduction and limit price rebound, with an expected oscillatory upward trend [1] - For coke, after six price hikes, coking profits turn positive, production increases slightly, demand is strong, and inventory is decreasing. The spot market is stable, and the short - term futures market is expected to oscillate [2] - For polyester bottle - chips, raw material support weakens, downstream demand is for rigid replenishment, and prices are expected to oscillate weakly [4] - For rebar, with the approaching parade, blast furnace restrictions are uncertain. Supply and demand both decline, inventory accumulates, but there is still support below the futures price, and the focus is on production restrictions and terminal demand [5] - For iron ore, supply is stable, demand is high, and the market is expected to oscillate as the fundamental situation is healthy [6] - For live pigs, supply exceeds demand in the short term, with weak price adjustments, and farmers can consider selling hedging [7] - For palm oil, domestic inventory is increasing, but due to bullish sentiment and pre - holiday demand, prices are expected to oscillate upward [7] - For soybean meal, downstream acceptance is low, but as inventory is consumed, prices are expected to rise, and the M01 contract is expected to oscillate widely with strong support below [8] - For soda ash, supply is increasing, downstream demand is average, and the 01 contract is expected to oscillate in the short term [9] - For methanol, domestic production is rising, downstream demand is stable, inventory is accumulating, and the 01 contract is expected to oscillate weakly [10] - For polypropylene, supply is abundant, inventory is high, and the PP01 contract is expected to oscillate, with suggestions to wait and see or short on rebounds [11] - For gold, geopolitical tensions may ease, and the medium - term trend is expected to oscillate downward [11] - For silver, the market is watching the Jackson Hole meeting, and the 9 - month interest - rate cut probability is high. Silver is expected to oscillate upward, with large fluctuations on Friday [12] - For short - term treasury bonds, rising capital costs and the stock - bond seesaw effect are negative for the bond market, with a short - term oscillatory downward trend [12] - For crude oil, supply expectations are raised, demand growth is lowered, and there is no short - term upward driving force, with an expected oscillatory downward trend [13] Summaries by Product Rubber - Thailand's raw material prices decline, with cup - lump down 0.35 baht/kg to 49.45 baht/kg, and latex remaining at 54.2 baht/kg. In Hainan, heavy rain disrupts tapping, and glue output is scarce. From January to July, China's rubber tire exports reach 563 tons, a 5.4% year - on - year increase [1] Coke - The average national profit per ton of coke is - 45 yuan/ton, with different profitability in various regions. After six price hikes, coking profits turn positive, production increases slightly, demand is strong, and inventory is decreasing [2] Polyester Bottle - chips - In this trading cycle, the output is 32.27 tons, remaining flat. The average weekly profit is - 218.5 yuan/ton, down 11.75 yuan/ton. The terminal demand is in the peak season, with stable downstream industry operating rates [4] Rebar - On August 18, domestic steel prices fluctuate. The billet price in Tangshan drops by 20 yuan/ton to 3050 yuan/ton. The average price of 20mm third - grade seismic rebar in 31 major cities drops by 14 yuan/ton [5] Iron Ore - The total inventory of imported iron ore in 47 ports is 14381.57 tons, an increase of 114.30 tons. The daily port clearance volume is 346.80 tons, an increase of 10.35 tons. Overseas mine shipments decline slightly, and port arrivals return to last year's level [6] Live Pigs - On August 18, the average pork price in the national agricultural wholesale market is 20.20 yuan/kg, a 0.7% increase from last Friday. The overall supply is sufficient, and the market is in a state of oversupply in the short term [7] Palm Oil - As of August 15, the commercial inventory of palm oil in key regions is 61.73 tons, a 2.92% increase from last week and a 5.96% increase from last year [7] Soybean Meal - In the 33rd week of 2025, the soybean inventory of major domestic oil mills decreases by 4.24% to 680.4 tons, and the soybean meal inventory increases by 1.12% to 101.47 tons [8] Soda Ash - The mainstream price of heavy soda ash is 1326 yuan/ton, with an oscillatory downward trend. The weekly output is 76.13 tons, a 2.24% increase. The total inventory of manufacturers is 189.38 tons, a 1.54% increase [9] Methanol - The market price in Jiangsu is 2302 yuan/ton, a decrease of 23 yuan/ton. The port inventory is 102.18 tons, an increase of 9.63 tons. Production is rising, and downstream demand is stable [10] Polypropylene - The mainstream price of East China drawing - grade polypropylene is 7022 yuan/ton, a decrease of 29 yuan/ton. Production is stable, supply is abundant, and inventory is high [11] Gold - Trump and Zelensky meet at the White House, with possible geopolitical easing, and the medium - term trend is expected to oscillate downward [11] Silver - The market is watching the Jackson Hole meeting, and the 9 - month interest - rate cut probability is high. Silver is expected to oscillate upward, with large fluctuations on Friday [12] Short - term Treasury Bonds - On August 18, most money - market interest rates rise, with the stock - bond seesaw effect being negative for the bond market, and a short - term oscillatory downward trend [12] Crude Oil - Trump hosts the Ukraine summit, and各方 support peace. The IEA raises supply expectations and lowers demand growth forecasts, with no short - term upward driving force [13]

Report Industry Investment Rating No relevant content provided. Core Viewpoints - The commodity market may fluctuate in the short - term due to weak Sino - US economic data. The oil and fat sector may be relatively strong, while the precious metals sector may adjust with fluctuations. Each sub - sector has different trends based on their own fundamentals and macro - economic factors [1]. - The non - ferrous sector may face pressure due to weak Sino - US economic data and low demand during the off - season. The black sector may fluctuate, with attention on the limit - production intensity near the military parade. The energy sector may see oil prices fluctuate weakly, and the chemical sector has different trends for different products [2]. - The agricultural sector has different trends for different products. The oil and fat sector may fluctuate strongly, while the rapeseed sector may face pressure [3]. Summary by Relevant Catalogs Market Performance - The commodity market rose slightly by 0.52% last week, with agricultural products leading the rise at 1.25%. Non - ferrous and energy - chemical sectors rose by 0.99% and 0.59% respectively, while precious metals and black sectors fell by 1.23% and 0.27% respectively [1][5]. - The top - gainers were palm oil (5.11%), soda ash (4.73%), and cotton (2.32%), and the top - losers were fuel oil (2.71%), methanol (2.55%), and eggs (2.3%) [1]. - The 20 - day average volatility of the commodity market decreased slightly, with the agricultural and black sectors showing an upward trend in volatility. The overall market scale decreased slightly, and the out - flowing funds were mainly concentrated in the precious metals sector [1]. Sector Outlook - **Precious Metals**: The sector declined significantly last week. With the cooling of risk - aversion sentiment, it may adjust with fluctuations in the short - term [1]. - **Non - ferrous Metals**: Sino - US economic data is weak, and the demand is at a low level during the off - season. The sector may face pressure in the short - term [2]. - **Black Metals**: The apparent demand for rebar continued to decline, and inventory accumulation accelerated. The sector may fluctuate in the short - term, with attention on the limit - production intensity near the military parade [2]. - **Energy**: The market's expectation of a loose supply - demand relationship is strengthened, and the oil price may fluctuate weakly in the short - term [2]. - **Chemical Industry**: The terminal demand for polyester products is expected to rebound, and the valuation of PX is improving. The glass price is supported by cost, while soda ash may face pressure [2]. - **Agricultural Products**: The USDA August report is positive for US soybeans. The oil and fat sector may fluctuate strongly in the short - term, while the rapeseed sector may face pressure [3]. Commodity Fund Overview - Gold ETFs had an overall decline of 1.28%, and the total commodity ETFs had a decline of 0.51%. Different commodity ETFs had different performance in terms of net value, yield, scale, share change, and trading volume [38].