铝产业链周度报告 范玲 期货从业资格号：F0272984 投资咨询资格号：Z0011970 2025-8-15 中航期货 目录 01 报告摘要 03 数据分析 02 多空焦点 04 后市研判 | 政 | 同 | 升 | 幅 | 现 | 四 | 增， | 以 | 的3%， | 线20600 | 行 | 飙 | 小 | 的 | 周 | 税 | 幅。 | | | | | | | | | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | | 略 | 别 | 上 | 比 | 续 | 滑 | 关 | 中 | 涨 | 特 | 期 | 持 | 较 | | | | | | | | | | | | | 环 | 下 | 征 | 号。 | 稳 | 预 | 大 | 门 | 率 | 性 | 比 | 均 | 加 | 能 | | | | | | | | | | | | 吨， | 于 | 最 | 信 | 澳 ...

Domestic Policies - The US-China trade talks resulted in a 90-day suspension of a 24% tariff on each other's goods, effective August 12, 2025[6] - A personal consumption loan subsidy policy was introduced, offering a 1% annual interest subsidy for loans used for consumption from September 1, 2025, to August 31, 2026[8] - A service industry loan subsidy policy was also announced, providing a 1% annual interest subsidy for loans to eight specified service sectors, with a maximum loan amount of 1 million yuan per entity[11] Economic Indicators - China's final consumption expenditure contributed 52.0% to economic growth in the first half of 2025, up 0.3 percentage points from the first quarter[10] - In July, the US Consumer Price Index (CPI) rose by 2.7% year-on-year, slightly below the expected 2.8%, while the core CPI increased by 3.1%, exceeding expectations[19] - The Producer Price Index (PPI) in the US for July recorded a year-on-year increase of 3.3%, surpassing market expectations of 2.9%[19] Market Trends - Brent crude oil prices fell by 2.05% week-on-week, while iron ore prices rose by 0.11% and copper prices increased by 0.95%[23] - Real estate sales in 30 major cities increased by 2.12% week-on-week, with first-tier cities seeing a 2.82% rise[33] - The average daily retail sales of passenger cars in the first week of August decreased by 4% year-on-year, despite a 6% increase compared to the previous month[33] Future Outlook - The upcoming focus includes the US NAHB housing market index and new housing starts data, as well as the Jackson Hole global central bank conference later in August[2] - The market anticipates a 50 basis point rate cut by the Federal Reserve in September, driven by recent economic data and inflation trends[21]

Group 1: Market Overview - The Hong Kong stock market opened high but closed lower, with the Hang Seng Index down by 0.37%, the Hang Seng China Enterprises Index down by 0.97%, and the Hang Seng Tech Index down by 0.23% [2] - The total market turnover increased to HKD 270.12 billion, with short selling amounting to HKD 19.42 billion, representing 13.66% of the total turnover [2] - Northbound capital saw a net inflow of HKD 1.034 billion, with the most bought stocks being China Life, Alibaba, Li Auto, and SMIC, while Tencent, Meituan, and Crystal International saw the most net selling [2] Group 2: Company Analysis - 361 Degrees (1361.HK) - 361 Degrees reported a revenue increase of 11% year-on-year to HKD 5.7 billion for the first half of 2025, with net profit rising by 9% to HKD 860 million [9][10] - The company declared a dividend of HKD 0.204 per share, raising the payout ratio to 45% [9][10] - The e-commerce channel showed strong performance with a 45% year-on-year growth, accounting for 32% of total revenue, and the gross margin improved to 41.5% due to cost control and price increases [10][11] - The company is actively exploring new channel development opportunities, with plans to increase the number of super stores to 100 by the end of the year [11] Group 3: Industry Insights - The biotechnology sector experienced a surge following the announcement of positive clinical trial results for a new drug by Rongchang Biotech, leading to significant gains in related stocks [3] - Insurance stocks performed strongly, with Sunshine Insurance rising over 7% and other major insurers also closing higher [4] - The overall consumer environment remains challenging, yet 361 Degrees has maintained its full-year guidance, indicating resilience in its business strategy [10][11]

周五（8月15日）亚市盘中，由于美联储9月份大概率仍将降息25个基点，美元走势依然比较疲软，美元 兑日元已经回吐了周四的全部涨幅，截至发稿前美元/日元汇率报147.3100，跌幅0.30%，仍需提防美元 兑日元日内进一步下行风险。 美国PPI报告显示，7月批发价格大幅上涨，创下三年来最大单月涨幅，释放出关税相关的通胀压力信 号。PPI环比跃升0.9%(远超预期的0.2%)，而6月数据曾持平。同比来看，PPI上涨3.3%，为2025年2月以 来最快增速。剔除食品、能源和贸易服务的核心PPI同样创下2022年以来最大涨幅，进一步印证了全面 通胀压力。 服务价格领涨(环比上升1.1%，创2022年3月以来最大增幅)，其中投资组合管理、证券经纪和旅客住宿 价格显著攀升。与此同时，商品价格上涨0.7%(食品成本上涨1.4%是主要推手)，新鲜及干燥蔬菜价格单 月暴涨近39%，肉类、柴油和航空燃油亦形成额外推力。 经济学家初步解读报告时指出，价格加速上涨主要源于美国近期关税政策推高的进口成本。尽管年初企 业大多自行消化了这部分成本，但如今许多厂商可能正将成本转嫁给消费者以维持利润空间。 PPI备受市场关注，因其多项细分指标 ...

2025 年 08 月 15 日 铅：库存减少，价格获支撑 季先飞 投资咨询从业资格号：Z0012691 jixianfei@gtht.com 铅趋势强度：0 注：趋势强度取值范围为【-2,2】区间整数。强弱程度分类如下：弱、偏弱、中性、偏强、强，-2 表示 最看空，2 表示最看多。 国 泰 君 安 期 货 研 究 所 请务必阅读正文之后的免责条款部分 1 【基本面跟踪】 | | 昨日值 | 较前日变动/涨跌幅 | | 昨日值 | 较前日变动/涨跌幅 | | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | | 沪铅主力收盘价 | 16770 | -0.95% | 伦铅 3M 电子盘收 | 1988 | -1.39% | | （元/吨） | | | 盘（美元/吨） | | | | 沪铅主力成交量 | 45616 | 16679 | 伦铅成交量（手） | 4632 | -935 | | （手） | | | | | | | 沪铅主力持仓量 | 51370 | 1946 | 伦铅持仓量（手） | 154530 | 682 | | （手） | | | | | | | 上海 1# 铅升贴水 | - ...

过去几天，美股的大涨、以及全球股市的狂欢，似乎都在为庆祝一件事情，那就是因为不及预期的CPI数据，或者说美联储内部对降息的分歧，市场存在另 外一种预期，那就是9月份不仅仅降息25个基点，可能出现大幅度降息。 香港恒生指数 最新:25519.320 25778 25737 25696 25655 25614 25573 25532 25491 25450 3.32 2.21 1.11 亿 09:30 10:30 10:00 当然这个事情也有背后的呼吁者，美国财长贝森特在接受采访的时候表示，觉得未来会进行一系列降息，9月份先降息50个基点，这让市场有些震惊，还有 就是贝森特觉得不管参考哪种模型，利率未来可能都应该降低到150至175个基点。 我感觉昨天A股调整，多少与此有些关联度，包括港股在下午的回落，当然主要原因还是在市场自身，因为核心蓝筹的大幅度拉升，使得市场资金的分歧开 始加大，特别是最终造成了4000多只个股下跌，一般而言当大部分个股下跌的时候，仅仅有少部分个股上涨的路也不会太长，这对A股来说如此情形已经演 绎了很多次。 所以接下来的走势，我大概率觉得市场震荡几天，拉升指数的蓝筹股短期内该休息了，因为任务 ...

2025.08. 15 本文字数：1166，阅读时长大约2分钟 作者 | 第一财经 胡弋杰 美国股市周四涨跌不一，标普500指数微升0.03%续创收盘新高，道指和纳指则几乎持平，高于预 期的通胀数据抑制了投资者对美联储年内降息幅度的预期，压制了股市上行动能。 截至收盘，道琼斯指数微跌0.02%报44911.26点；标普500指数涨0.03%报6468.54点；纳斯达克 指数跌0.01%报21710.67点。标普500指数11个板块中七个下跌。 CFRA Research首席投资策略师萨姆·斯托瓦尔（Sam Stovall）称，按远期市盈率计算，标普500 当前估值较20年均值高出近四成，PPI数据的超预期让投资者对降息前景更为犹豫。 美国劳工部数据显示，7月生产者价格指数（PPI）环比上涨0.9%，为三年来最大单月升幅，远高于 市场预期的0.2%；同比升幅3.3%，亦超出预期的2.5%。剔除食品和能源后的核心PPI环比涨幅 0.9%，同比上涨3.7%，大幅高于前一个月2.6%的同比增长。 数据反映，服务和商品成本齐升，通 胀回落进程可能面临阻力。 受此影响， 伦敦证交所集团（LSEG）数据显示，市场对美联储今 ...

俄罗斯总统普京：有可能与美国达成新的军备协议 美联储隔夜逆回购工具使用规模创2021年4月以来新低 据悉特朗普政府正商讨入股英特尔 美国7月PPI环比大增0.9%！创三年来最大增幅 美国财长贝森特：不太可能会重新评估美国黄金储备持仓，将停止出售比特币持仓 美联储官员反驳9月大幅降息的预期 特朗普：此次与普京的会晤为第二次会晤定下基础，如果问题解决不了，将实施制裁 男生普通话版 下载mp3 女声普通话版 下载mp3 粤语版 下载mp3 西南方言版 下载mp3 东北话版 下载mp3 上海话版 下载mp3 今日优选 中国央行今日将开展5000亿元买断式逆回购操作 香港证监会及香港金管局就稳定币相关市场波动发表联合声明 长和最新表态：预计今年不会完成港口交易，将邀请内地投资者加入 市场盘点 周四，美元指数有所反弹，随后因美国7月PPI指数高于预期，或暗示未来几个月通胀将普遍上升，美指扩大涨幅并重回98关口上方，最终收涨0.43%，报 98.17；基准的10年期美债收益率收报4.290%，2年期美债收益率收报3.741%。 现货黄金日内持续下挫，并在美盘时段一度跌破3330美元关口，较日高大跌超40美元，最终收跌0.6 ...

Group 1 - The US July PPI year-on-year rate is 3.3%, significantly exceeding the market expectation of 2.5% and marking the highest level since February [1] - The US July PPI month-on-month rate recorded a 0.9% increase, the largest since June 2022 [1] - The number of initial jobless claims in the US for the week ending August 9 is 224,000, slightly below the expected 228,000 [1] Group 2 - Binance co-founder He Yi has been selected as a global leader by Fortune, co-owning the venture capital arm YZi Labs and holding at least 10% of Binance's parent company [1] - US Treasury Secretary Bessent stated that Bitcoin reserves are valued between $15 billion and $20 billion, and there will be no purchases of cryptocurrency reserves [2] - Bessent indicated a potential for a series of interest rate cuts, starting with a 25 basis point reduction [2] Group 3 - Tron founder Justin Sun has filed a lawsuit against Bloomberg in Delaware, claiming the disclosure of his crypto assets violates previous confidentiality agreements [2] - The Guizhou provincial government has refuted rumors regarding a former official allegedly mining 327 Bitcoins, clarifying that the case is unrelated to Bitcoin [3]

Group 1 - The Norwegian central bank has decided to maintain the benchmark interest rate at 4.25%, aligning with market expectations, marking the first pause in rate cuts since an unexpected 25 basis point reduction in June [2][3] - The central bank's governor, Ida Walden Bache, indicated that the fight against inflation is not yet complete, suggesting that if the economy develops as expected, there may be 1 to 2 rate cuts by the end of 2025, bringing the rate to "slightly below 4%" [2] - Current inflation data remains high, with core inflation at 3.1% in June and July, significantly above the target of 2%, which limits the space for further rate cuts [3] Group 2 - The central bank's previous rate cut in June was the first since the pandemic, aimed at addressing inflation that, while easing, still exceeds targets [3] - External factors, particularly the Federal Reserve's potential rate cuts, are influencing the Norwegian market, with a high probability of a 90% chance of a Fed rate cut in September [3] - The Norwegian central bank is cautious about further easing, as additional cuts could weaken the Norwegian krone and may need to reserve policy tools to respond to worsening economic conditions [3]