Group 1 - The core viewpoint is that the Bank of Korea anticipates a potential easing of inflation in the second half of the year due to declining oil prices and weak demand [1] Group 2 - The decrease in oil prices is a significant factor contributing to the expected inflation relief [1] - Weak demand in the economy is also highlighted as a contributing factor to the potential easing of inflation [1]

Group 1 - The core viewpoint is that the Reserve Bank of New Zealand, led by Governor Hawkesby, has observed a decline in demand and a reduction in inflationary pressures compared to February [1] Group 2 - The statement indicates that the economic environment is showing signs of weakness, which may influence future monetary policy decisions [1] - The reduction in inflationary pressures suggests that the central bank may have more flexibility in adjusting interest rates moving forward [1]

理性预期回归挤出情绪溢价，PX、PTA估值存回调修复压力 通惠期货研发部 李英杰 从业编号：F03115367 投资咨询：Z0019145 手机：18516056442 liyingjie@thqh.com.cn www.thqh.com.cn 一、日度市场总结 1. PTA&PX 05月21日，PX 主力合约收6766.0元/吨，较前一交易日收涨1.47%，基差 为-1.0元/吨。PTA 主力合约收4788.0元/吨，较前一交易日收涨1.18%，基 差为112.0元/吨。 成本端，05月21日，布油主力合约收盘65.6美元/桶。WTI收62.25美元/ 桶。 市场继续关注俄乌、美伊局势，油价短期震荡格局对成本端支撑有限。涤 丝库存压力缓解，未来关注下游纱厂备货节奏。 1/8 二、产业链价格监测 | | 数据指标 | 2025-05-21 | 2025-05-20 | 変化 | 近日涨跌幅 | 走勢 | 单位 | | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | | PX期货 | 主力合约价格 | 6,766 | 6,668 | 98 | 1.47% | | ...

Investment Rating - The report maintains an investment rating of "Synchronize with the Market" for the basic chemical industry [5][8]. Core Insights - The basic chemical industry index fell by 3.61% in April 2025, ranking 20th among 30 major industries, with a year-on-year decline of 0.37% [5][11]. - The report emphasizes the importance of focusing on potassium fertilizer and phosphorus chemical industries, which are expected to see price recovery due to tightening supply and strong demand [5][8]. Market Review - In April 2025, 12 out of 33 sub-industries in the basic chemical sector saw price increases, with daily chemical products, inorganic salts, and fluorine chemicals leading the gains at 8.56%, 4.37%, and 3.46% respectively [12]. - The overall performance of the basic chemical sector was characterized by a significant price drop in chemical products, influenced by falling international oil prices [5][8]. Industry and Company News - The report highlights that the chemical raw materials and products manufacturing industry achieved a total profit of 78.76 billion yuan in Q1 2025, a slight year-on-year decline of 0.4% [16]. - The report notes that the potassium fertilizer sector is characterized by strong resource attributes and a concentrated supply structure, which is expected to drive price recovery [5][8]. Product Price Tracking - In April 2025, the prices of chemical raw materials and products saw a year-on-year decline of 4.1%, with significant impacts from the drop in oil prices [20][21]. - The report tracks the price movements of various chemical products, indicating a general downward trend due to external market pressures [5][8]. Investment Strategy - The investment strategy for May 2025 suggests continued focus on potassium fertilizer and phosphorus chemical industries, which are expected to benefit from tightening supply and robust demand [5][8].

Report Information - Report Title: Soda Ash and Glass Daily Report [1] - Report Date: May 13, 2024 [2] - Research Team: Energy and Chemical Research Team [4] 1. Investment Rating - No investment rating information is provided in the report. 2. Core Views - On May 12, the main soda ash futures contract SA509 rebounded after hitting a bottom, with a closing price of 1,318 yuan/ton, up 2 yuan/ton or 0.15%, and an increase in positions of 11,751 lots. The spot prices of heavy and light soda ash in Central China remained unchanged from the previous day. Soda ash production continued to rise, and demand increased. However, the supply side is at a high level year-on-year, and the downward pressure on prices is becoming more significant. New production capacity will be put into operation, further increasing supply pressure [8]. - The supply side of the glass market is showing a contraction trend, but it is difficult to form a large-scale cold repair wave in the short term. The peak demand season fell short of expectations, and with the approaching of the traditional off-season, market sentiment is pessimistic. The combination of复产 expectations and high inventory is suppressing futures prices. In the short term, the glass market lacks effective driving factors, and prices will continue to fluctuate weakly [9]. 3. Summary by Directory 3.1 Soda Ash and Glass Market Review and Operation Suggestions - **Futures Trading Data on May 12**: The SA505 contract opened at 1,276 yuan/ton, closed at 1,291 yuan/ton, down 9 yuan or 0.69%, with a position of 0.31 million lots, a decrease of 796 lots. The SA509 contract opened at 1,299 yuan/ton, closed at 1,318 yuan/ton, up 2 yuan or 0.15%, with a position of 123.31 million lots, an increase of 11,751 lots. The FG505 contract opened at 1,044 yuan/ton, closed at 1,047 yuan/ton, up 7 yuan or 0.67%, with a position of 0.53 million lots, a decrease of 822 lots. The FG509 contract opened at 1,034 yuan/ton, closed at 1,045 yuan/ton, down 3 yuan or 0.28%, with a position of 133.57 million lots, a decrease of 2,299 lots [7]. - **Soda Ash Market**: The weekly production of soda ash in China reached 757,000 tons in the week of May 8, near the highest level this year, and the weekly operating load rate remained at 90%. As of May 8, the weekly enterprise inventory of heavy soda ash in China remained at 880,000 tons, continuing the inventory accumulation trend. The supply side is at a high level year-on-year, and the downward pressure on prices is significant. Although some production line maintenance plans may have an impact on the supply rhythm in May, it is difficult to fundamentally reverse the oversupply situation [8]. - **Glass Market**: The supply side is showing a contraction trend, but it is difficult to form a large-scale cold repair wave in the short term due to cost and capacity limitations. The peak demand season fell short of expectations, and with the approaching of the traditional off-season, market sentiment is pessimistic. The combination of复产 expectations and high inventory is suppressing futures prices. In the short term, the glass market lacks effective driving factors, and prices will continue to fluctuate weakly [9]. 3.2 Industry News - The market price of baking soda in Henan is stable. Jinshan's baking soda plant is under maintenance, and downstream users maintain a rigid procurement rhythm. The mainstream ex-factory price of food-grade baking soda is estimated at 1,200 - 1,260 yuan/ton [10]. - In May 2025, the weighted order days of domestic soda ash manufacturers' sample enterprises were 14.6 days, basically flat month-on-month. The operating load of the soda ash industry decreased in May, and the supply of goods decreased, but downstream demand was weak, and the enthusiasm for purchasing was not high, so new orders from soda ash manufacturers were average [10]. - Based on the period from 10:00 to 14:00 on the day, the average market price of 5mm large float glass in Shahe decreased by 0.21 yuan/square meter compared with the previous working day, with an average price of 14.77 yuan/square meter; the average price of 4.4mm small float glass decreased by 0.32 yuan/square meter, with an average price of 12.69 yuan/square meter. The Shahe float glass market continued to weaken over the weekend, and the futures price remained sluggish, with the market price center further moving down. Some spot-futures traders' shipments improved. The market basically stabilized today, and traders' selling prices were flexible [10]. - In April, China's automobile production and sales reached 2.619 million and 2.59 million units respectively, down 12.9% and 11.2% month-on-month, and up 8.9% and 9.8% year-on-year. Domestic automobile sales were 2.073 million units, down 13.9% month-on-month and up 11.7% year-on-year; automobile exports were 517,000 units, up 2% month-on-month and 2.6% year-on-year. In April, the production and sales of new energy vehicles reached 1.251 million and 1.226 million units respectively, up 43.8% and 44.2% year-on-year, and the sales of new energy vehicles accounted for 47.3% of the total sales of new vehicles [10]. 3.3 Data Overview - The report provides multiple data charts, including the price trends of active soda ash and glass contracts, weekly soda ash production, soda ash enterprise inventory, the market price of heavy soda ash in Central China, and flat glass production, with data sources from Wind and Zhuochuang Information [14][17][18].

Group 1: Rebar Market - The main rebar contract has shown a downward trend, closing at 3022 CNY/ton, down 50 CNY, a decrease of 1.63% [1] - Weekly rebar production was 2.2353 million tons, a decrease of 98,500 tons from the previous week, down 4.22% [1] - Demand has weakened significantly, with rebar demand at 2.139 million tons, down 778,100 tons from the previous week, a decline of 26.67% [1] - Social inventory of rebar is approximately 6.5363 million tons, an increase of 96,300 tons from the previous week, indicating slower destocking than expected [1] Group 2: Hot Rolled Coil Market - The main hot rolled coil contract opened lower and fluctuated downwards, closing at 3157 CNY/ton, down 43 CNY, a decrease of 1.34% [1] - Domestic hot rolled coil production remained high at 3.2038 million tons, leading to ample supply [1] - Social inventory of hot rolled coil increased to 2.8032 million tons, up 39,900 tons from the previous week, indicating a slowdown in destocking [1] Group 3: Lithium Carbonate Market - Lithium carbonate prices hit a new low, closing at 63489.03 CNY/ton, down 1.84% [1] - Upstream lithium salt producers have reduced their willingness to sell, but high inventory levels among traders are keeping prices under pressure [1] - The lithium market is currently oversupplied with weak demand, leading to a continued decline in lithium prices [1]

Group 1 - Oil prices increased on May 8, supported by optimism surrounding upcoming trade negotiations between the U.S. and China, following a decline of over $1 the previous trading day [1] - Brent crude futures rose by $0.51, or 0.8%, to $61.63 per barrel, while U.S. West Texas Intermediate crude futures increased by $0.57, or 1%, to $58.64 per barrel [1] - The upcoming meeting between U.S. Treasury Secretary Scott Basset and Chinese economic officials is aimed at addressing trade tensions that could impact global oil consumption growth [1] Group 2 - The Federal Reserve's decision to maintain interest rates amid rising economic uncertainty has raised concerns about weak demand, limiting the extent of oil price increases [1] - A report from ING analysts indicated that the Fed's stance on interest rates has strengthened the dollar, which in turn has created additional resistance in the commodity markets [2] - Increased gasoline inventories in the U.S. have raised concerns among analysts about the potential for rising consumption as the summer demand period approaches [2] Group 3 - OPEC+ is set to increase oil production, which will add further pressure on oil prices [3]