去年此时，我们在 2025 AI Best Ideas 中提出了 20 个关键预测，12 个月过去，当我们重新审视这份 清单，惊奇地发现：我们对行业格局和技术路径的判断绝大部分都应验了，但其中也有对技术进 步、基建成熟度、以及 AI 交易复杂性的过分乐观。 2026 年即将在 "AI Bubble"的争议中开启。World Model、多模态、机器人以及新范式等积极信号的 出现意味着 AI 领域一定会出现更多惊喜，但同时，OpenAI $1.4T CapEx 也意味着，在 price-in 了 超高预期后，市场对 AI 领域的期待只会越来愈高。 以下是拾象团队 2025 预测复盘， 我们也很希望听到大家对于 AI 领域 2026 的期待， 请留下你的答 案与思考，我们会基于大家的回答组织一场"2026 AI Best Ideas"讨论。 ⬇️ 滑动或点击查看大图 ⬇️ ⬆️ 滑动或点击查看大图 ⬆️ 01 微软投资 Anthropic，模型与云格局彻底改变 ✓ 预测结果：正确 拾象预测： 2025 年 OpenAI 会变成盈利组织，微软也很有可能会投资 Anthropic，这将彻底改变模型 和云的格局——An ...

（文章来源：第一财经） 中信证券研报表示，从OpenAI企业端AI的数据来看，2025年企业级AI处于场景探索阶段，用户数和流 量实现高增，能力平权和人员降本价值凸显，且行业整体渗透率仍有较大提升空间。展望2026年，我们 认为以强化学习技术发展为基础的Agent主线仍将持续演进，带动AI从降本到增收打开更多应用场景， 其中数据分析、代码生成、人力招聘、销售辅助、智能客服等场景需求较为清晰。建议持续关注AI在 财务、人力、销售、生产、供应链等管理软件核心模块上的商业进展。 ...

Core Insights - The article discusses the emergence of AI Agents and the current state of AI infrastructure, highlighting the gap between the rapid development of AI Agents and the readiness of the underlying infrastructure to support them [3][5][9]. Group 1: AI Agent Development - The AI Agent era is recognized as having arrived, with significant announcements from Amazon Web Services (AWS) regarding AI infrastructure and management [5]. - There is a notable increase in interest and investment in AI Agents, with many developers and companies focusing on this area during major events like re:Invent [5][6]. - However, there is a contrasting sentiment among developers regarding the current capabilities of AI infrastructure, which is perceived as inadequate to support the demands of AI Agents [9]. Group 2: Infrastructure Challenges - Developers express concerns about the current state of AI infrastructure, citing weaknesses in cost management and AI-first capabilities [9][11]. - The high costs associated with AI model inference are a significant barrier, with estimates indicating that 80-90% of AI Agent costs are tied to inference [11]. - There is a call for a software revolution to better accommodate AI Agents, including the need for simpler interaction interfaces and the elimination of data silos [13][14]. Group 3: Investment Trends - A new wave of investment in AI infrastructure is emerging, with companies focusing on optimizing AI infrastructure to reduce inference costs [15]. - Major players like NVIDIA are making significant investments in AI infrastructure startups, indicating a trend towards enhancing the foundational technologies that support AI Agents [15]. - Database companies are also recognizing the importance of adapting their products to better interact with AI Agents, emphasizing the need for scalable solutions to meet the growing demand [15].

文：科技商业 于洪涛 "我们正在进入一个拥有数十亿Agent的世界"，在re:Invent2025的开场演讲中，亚马逊云科技CEO Matt Garman如此表示。 他认为，Agent的出现正在成为AI发展的拐点，将AI在各行各业付诸实践，改变我们的工作、生活、学习方式。 与此同时，具有强大执行能力的Agent也正在重塑软件形态，对传统软件的价值链产生冲击。在此过程中，软件将从以流程和功能为核心，逐步转向以能力 和执行为核心，即从App模式走向Agent模式，进而重写软件哲学。 在过去的几十年里，企业已经构建了大量的IT系统：ERP、CRM、BI、OA、审批、监控等等。这些应用系统功能繁多，要求使用者学习复杂操作流程，点 无数按钮才能完成一个业务动作，无法真正理解企业业务意图。 而具备感知、理解、规划、行动及自我反馈能力的AI Agent，能够在不依赖人工逐步指令的情况下，基于目标自主完成任务，更好地帮助企业达成业务目 的。 当然，Agent虽好，但要让Agent真正发挥作用并不容易。Matt Garman表示，这需要AI基础设施、推理系统、企业数据、Agent构建工具四大核心要素的支 撑。 在上述四个核心要 ...

组委会 发自 MEET2026大会现场 量子位 | 公众号 QbitAI 如果把2025年的AI故事看作一条时间长河，那么最惊雷的一声在年初就已炸响—— DeepSeek-R1于1月横空出世，震出全年主旋律；刚刚进入12月，DeepSeek又开源了V3.2系列，一头一尾，把这一整年的技术叙事包了起 来。 2025年关乎AI模型的主线故事，沿着开源与性能的双线竞速徐徐展开，开源模型和闭源旗舰你追我赶，在参数规模之外把边界一路推到推理 效率、训练范式和成本结构；另一边，世界模型从论文概念变成真实产品与公司战场，李飞飞与Yann LeCun分别押注各自路线，把"通向AGI 的路"指向世界模型之争。 具身智能机器人和搭载的模型爆发式迭代，其它AI终端设备——AI玩具、AI手机、AI PC、智能座舱等——全面铺开，成为AI能力落到现实世 界的最佳试验田。 2025人工智能年度领航企业、2025人工智能年度潜力创业公司、2025人工智能年度杰出产品、2025人工智能年度杰出解决方案、2025人工 智能年度焦点人物等5大维度奖项悉数颁出。 本次评选于今年9月启动。在过去3个月里，共有数百家企业、机构和个人报名参与评选。 最 ...

Core Insights - The MEET2026 Smart Future Conference is set to take place on December 10, 2025, in Beijing, featuring prominent figures from academia and industry, including Tsinghua University and major tech companies like Baidu and Google Cloud [1][39]. Group 1: Conference Highlights - The conference will cover a wide range of topics related to AI, including large language models, embodied intelligence, autonomous driving, and cloud computing [3][39]. - Key discussions will focus on the advancements in AI technology, particularly the emergence of AI agents capable of autonomous operations and cross-system collaboration [5][6]. - The event will feature two significant dialogues: a GenAI Talk and an Agent Roundtable, addressing real industry challenges without exaggeration [7][16]. Group 2: Notable Speakers - The conference will host nearly thirty influential speakers from academia and industry, including Zhang Yaqin from Tsinghua University and executives from leading tech firms [17][21]. - The lineup includes representatives from various sectors, covering the entire AI ecosystem from foundational research to practical applications [33][34]. - Emerging companies in the AI space, such as Zhuoshijia Technology and Taichu Yuqi, will also participate, showcasing the breadth of innovation in the industry [28][31]. Group 3: Reports and Publications - The conference will release two important documents: the "2025 AI Top Ten Trends Report" and the "2025 Artificial Intelligence Annual List," summarizing key advancements and influential figures in the AI sector [35][39]. - The trends report will provide insights into technological developments, product solutions, and industry applications, serving as a comprehensive overview of the AI landscape [35][39].

截至2025年12月9日 09:33，中证人工智能主题指数(930713)成分股方面涨跌互现，润泽科技(300442)领 涨8.04%，光环新网(300383)上涨5.04%，浪潮信息(000977)上涨4.83%；芯原股份(688521)领跌。AI人工 智能ETF(512930)多空胶着，最新报价2.15元。 消息面上，智普AI宣布开源Open-AutoGLM框架和AutoGLM-Phone-9B核心模型，它标志着大模型竞赛 已经跨过"能说会道"的LLM（大型语言模型）思辨阶段，正式迈入"能做能行"的Agent（智能体）行动 时代。AutoGLM与豆包手机的技术路线不同，但都是让AI模拟人去操作手机，完成比如：京东购物、 微信发消息等操作。此次开源意味着硬件厂商、手机厂商和开发者均可基于AutoGLM，在自己的设备 或系统中复现一个能"看懂"屏幕、并模拟真人进行点击、输入、滑动的AI助手。目前，AutoGLM已支 持微信、淘宝、抖音、美团等超过50个高频中文应用的核心场景。 数据来源：wind 华泰证券指出，2025年电子行业在AI链引领创新以及下游终端需求整体持续复苏的带动下持续上行， 同时2H25开始存 ...

人民财讯12月9日电，华泰证券发布传媒行业2026年度展望：聚焦游戏产品向上周期，寻找AI应用突破 性机会。展望2026年，看好传媒行业三大配置方向：1)游戏板块自下而上选择有业绩α的公司，行业规 模稳健增长，2026年部分现运营产品流水或仍攀升，多款重点新品有望上线；2)AI应用有望涌现及加速 商业化，大模型能力跃迁、推理成本下降带动AI应用渗透率提升，Agent或迎来奇点，重点看好AI+广 告、AI+电商等；3)影视行业在政策利好的驱动下，持续优化内容供给。AI技术已深度赋能制作环节， AI漫剧商业化落地迅速。 ...

Core Insights - The article emphasizes the importance of Scaling Laws in achieving Artificial General Intelligence (AGI) and highlights Google's success with its Gemini 3 model as a validation of this approach [5][19][21]. Group 1: Scaling Laws and AGI - Scaling Laws were initially discovered by DeepMind, not OpenAI, and have been pivotal in guiding research directions in AI [12][14][18]. - Google DeepMind believes that Scaling Laws are essential for the development of AGI, suggesting that significant data and computational resources are necessary for achieving human-like intelligence [23][24]. - The potential for Scaling Laws to remain relevant for the next 500 years is debated, with some experts expressing skepticism about its long-term viability [10][11]. Group 2: Future AI Developments - In the next 12 months, AI is expected to advance significantly, particularly in areas such as complete multimodal integration, which allows seamless processing of various data types [27][28][30]. - Breakthroughs in visual intelligence are anticipated, exemplified by Google's Nano Banana Pro, which demonstrates advanced visual understanding [31][32]. - The proliferation of world models is a key focus, with notable projects like Genie 3 enabling interactive video generation [35][36]. - Improvements in the reliability of agent systems are expected, with agents becoming more capable of completing assigned tasks [38][39]. Group 3: Gemini 3 and Its Capabilities - Gemini 3 aims to be a universal assistant, showcasing personalized depth in responses and the ability to generate commercial-grade games quickly [41][44][45]. - The architecture of Gemini 3 allows it to understand high-level instructions and produce detailed outputs, indicating a significant leap in intelligence and practicality [46]. - The frequency of Gemini's use is projected to become as common as smartphone usage, integrating seamlessly into daily life [47].

Core Insights - The MEET2026 Intelligent Future Conference is a significant event in the AI sector, featuring prominent speakers from academia and industry, including Tsinghua University and major tech companies like Baidu and Google Cloud [1][21][39] - The conference will cover a wide range of topics related to AI, including large language models, embodied intelligence, and cloud computing applications [3][39] - The event aims to provide practical insights and discussions on the current state and future of AI technology, focusing on real-world applications rather than theoretical concepts [33][34] Highlights - Highlight 1: The conference will feature a GenAI dialogue and an Agent roundtable, addressing pressing questions about AI's impact on industries and the evolution of autonomous technologies [5][8][12] - Highlight 2: Nearly thirty influential guests from academia and industry will participate, discussing the latest advancements and challenges in AI, including insights from Tsinghua University and leading tech firms [17][21] - Highlight 3: The event will release two important documents: the "2025 AI Top Ten Trends Report" and the "2025 AI Annual List," summarizing key developments and influential figures in the AI landscape [35][39] Event Details - The MEET2026 conference is scheduled for December 10, 2025, at the Beijing Jinmao Hotel, focusing on how AI technologies can drive societal progress [37][39] - The agenda includes various sessions led by industry leaders, covering topics from AI's role in enhancing productivity to the future of AI agents [41][42]