Group 1: Economic Insights - The U.S. economy's third-quarter growth exceeded expectations, with a 1.5 percentage point increase attributed to President Trump's tariff policies reducing the trade deficit [1][7] - The strong GDP data is viewed as a "great Christmas gift" for the American people, indicating a significant economic recovery and a return of a large workforce to the labor market [1][7] - The ongoing prosperity in artificial intelligence is driving economic growth while exerting downward pressure on inflation [1][7] Group 2: Currency and Market Reactions - Japan's authorities are intensifying verbal warnings regarding the depreciation of the yen, indicating a readiness to take "bold actions" against currency fluctuations [2][8] - Market interpretations suggest that Japan's commitment to intervene in the currency market may have received tacit approval from the U.S. [2][8] - The U.S. dollar against the yen is experiencing downward pressure due to profit-taking and expectations of further rate cuts by the Federal Reserve [5][10] Group 3: Commodity Market Trends - Gold prices are rising, reaching historical highs around 4494, supported by increasing expectations of Fed rate cuts and heightened geopolitical tensions [4][9] - The increase in gold ETF holdings is also contributing to the upward momentum in gold prices [4][9]

Market Overview - The global precious metals market experienced an unprecedented surge on December 24, 2025, with gold and silver prices reaching record highs, as spot gold surpassed 4500 and spot silver broke through the critical $70 per ounce mark [1][5] - The price increases were driven by multiple factors, including geopolitical tensions, expectations of Federal Reserve interest rate cuts, and a weakening dollar, alongside strong industrial demand and active central bank purchases [1][5] - Silver has seen a remarkable year-to-date increase of 150%, while gold has risen by 72%, and platinum and palladium have surged by 155% and 107%, respectively [1][5] Gold Technical Analysis - The recent rapid increase in gold prices is attributed to geopolitical issues and the Federal Reserve's interest rate environment [6] - Market activity leading up to Christmas showed strong investor interest in gold, with significant price fluctuations observed [6][7] - Suggested trading strategy includes waiting for price corrections to confirm lower points before entering long positions, with potential upward targets set at 4545 or 4600 [7] Silver Technical Analysis - Silver has recently surpassed the $70 mark, reaching a high of $72.6, maintaining a bullish trend [8] - The recommended approach is to continue to adopt a bullish stance without attempting to predict tops, and to consider buying on any price corrections [8] - Key support levels to watch are at 70.3 and 70, with suggestions to buy near these support points if a correction occurs [8]

1.1 合约价格 沪银期货周报 1 期货市场 成文日期：20251221 报告周期:周度 研究品种：沪银 研究员：曹柏泉（从业资格号：F03122015；投资咨询从业证书号：Z0019820) 当周（20251215-1219）沪银期货主力 2602 合约价格高位偏强 震荡。周初延续强势, 于 12 月 18 日（周四）盘中最高触及 15,666 元/千克，再度刷新历史纪录。随后承压回调，周五（12 月 19 日) 收盘报 15,376元/千克。全周来看，合约在剧烈波动中仍录得上涨, 五日涨幅为 3.25%。 图 1：沪银 2602 日线 数据来源：wh6 1.2 品种行情 当周（20251215-1219）沪银主力合约累计成交量达 903.16 万 手,较前一周显著放量,交易活跃度维持高位。持仓量方面,主力 研究咨询: 028 6130 3163 邮箱: institute@gjgh.com.cn 投诉热线:4006821188 请务必阅读文末风险揭示及免责声明 2602 合约当周持仓量由 12 月 15 日的 38.18 万手降至 12 月 19 日的 33.75 万手，累计减少约 4.43 万手，显示部 ...

Group 1 - The spot gold price has historically surpassed the 1,000 yuan mark, with the latest price at 1,013.7 yuan per gram, reflecting a year-to-date increase of nearly 70% [1] - Domestic gold brands have raised their prices, with notable increases such as Chow Sang Sang's gold jewelry priced at 1,403 yuan per gram, up by 36 yuan from the previous day [1] - Silver prices have also risen significantly, reaching 15.75 yuan per gram, with a year-to-date increase of 139% [1] Group 2 - The recent surge in precious metal prices is primarily supported by expectations of interest rate cuts from the Federal Reserve, alongside heightened geopolitical tensions that have increased safe-haven buying [2] - Analysts from Everbright Futures indicate that there is considerable divergence among Federal Reserve officials regarding future interest rate cuts, which is influencing market sentiment towards precious metals [2]

10:32 m 黄金ETF持仓报告 公布机构：美国SPDR Gold Trust 当前总持仓 1064.56 吨黄金 除了避险情绪、美联储降息预期、央行买入等之外，ETF的强劲买盘是推动金价大幅上涨的主要动力之一。根据世界黄金协会的数据，今年除5月外，黄 金ETF的总持仓量每个月都在上升。今年以来，全球最大黄金ETF——SPDR Gold Trust持仓量已增长超过五分之一。 黄金ETF总持仓变化 更新时间:2025-12-22 1.070 1.060 1.050 1.040 1.030 1.020 1.010 2025-10-13 2025-11-03 2025-11-24 2025-12-15 EBC黄金ETF持仓报告解读 -SPDR Gold Trust持 … 全球最大的黄金ETF -- 展开 ( (0) 截至12月23日，全球最大的黄金ETF SPDR Gold Trust持仓量为1064.56吨，较前一个交易日维持不变。12月23日，现货黄金再度拉升，盘中最高触及 4499.84美元/盎司，距离4500美元/盎司关口"近在咫尺"，继续创下历史新高，收于4484.54美元/盎司，涨40.98美元/0. ...

12月24日，昨日周二我们认为，临近圣诞假期，市场流动性减少，叠加降息预期与避险买盘，共同推动 黄金价格上涨，短期技术面也显示，黄金存在继续冲高的可能，因此操作上建议大家，下方支撑关注 4400美元整数位置，上方压力关注4450美元附近的突破情况，若金价再创新高，关注4500美元整数位 置。 12月24日，昨日周二我们认为，临近圣诞假期，市场流动性减少，叠加降息预期与避险买盘，共同推动 黄金价格上涨，短期技术面也显示，黄金存在继续冲高的可能，因此操作上建议大家，下方支撑关注 4400美元整数位置，上方压力关注4450美元附近的突破情况，若金价再创新高，关注4500美元整数位 置。 从之后的走势看，昨日周二亚盘开盘后，黄金直接站稳4450美元继续上涨，至4497美元遇阻，此后亚欧 盘金价多次向上试探，均未能突破4500美元整数位置附近压制，美盘开盘后，黄金再次涨至4497美元遇 阻后，走势短线跳水，刷新日低至4430美元，不过金价很快企稳反弹，继续向上试探，临近收盘时刷新 历史新高至4499美元。总体来看，黄金在突破周一高点4449美元后，向上试探4500美元整数位置遇阻， 基本符合我们预期。 Wolfinan ...

Economic Growth - The U.S. economy expanded at its fastest pace in two years during the third quarter, with a real GDP annualized growth rate of 4.3%, significantly exceeding the expected 3.3% and the previous value of 3.8% [1][7] - Real personal consumption expenditures for the third quarter recorded an annualized growth rate of 3.5%, higher than the expected 2.7% and the previous 2.5% [1][7] - The core PCE price index for the third quarter had an annualized growth rate of 2.9%, matching expectations and up from the previous 2.6% [1][7] Economic Outlook - Economists warn that the growth momentum is unlikely to be sustained, with expectations of weak or stagnant economic growth in the fourth quarter due to the impact of a 43-day government shutdown that began on October 1 [1][7] - Kevin Hassett, Director of the White House National Economic Council, noted that despite the strong growth in the third quarter, the pace of interest rate cuts by the Federal Reserve is lagging behind other countries [2][8] Trade and Inflation - Hassett indicated that approximately 1.5 percentage points of GDP growth can be attributed to tariff policies implemented by the Trump administration, which have reduced the U.S. trade deficit [2][8] - The development of artificial intelligence technology is contributing to economic growth while also exerting downward pressure on inflation [2][8]

基本面： 周三（12月24日）亚盘时段，现货黄金继续突破并再次刷新历史高位至4525美元附近后守住强势，目前暂交投于4508美元附近。在2025年的年末，全球贵金 属市场迎来了一波史无前例的强势上涨行情，黄金、白银价格持续刷新纪录，现货黄金升破4500关口，现货白银一举突破每盎司70美元的关键关口，现货铂 金也屡创历史新高，现货钯金刷新三年高点。这股涨势不仅受到了地缘政治紧张局势、美联储降息预期以及美元走软等多重因素的推动，还叠加了工业需求 强劲和央行买盘活跃的影响。 地缘局势方面，美国周二对联合国表示，将实施"最大限度"的制裁，以剥夺委内瑞拉总统马杜罗的资源，同时俄罗斯警告其他拉美国家可能成为下一个目 标。美国总统特朗普周一表示，可能保留或出售最近扣押的委内瑞拉石油，并扣留相关船只。他对马杜罗发出警告，称这是其"最后一次机会"，并强调目标 是迫使马杜罗下台。据华尔街日报报道，美国本周向加勒比海地区调遣大量特种作战飞机和运输机，包括至少10架CV-22鱼鹰倾转旋翼机和C-17运输机，这 为潜在军事行动提供了更多选项。 在乌克兰方面，俄罗斯导弹和无人机袭击造成至少三名乌克兰人死亡，包括一名儿童，并引发大范围断电 ...

Group 1 - Spot gold has surpassed the $4500 per ounce mark for the first time, reaching a new historical high of $4523.4 per ounce, with an increase of approximately $1880 per ounce for the year [1] - The price of certain gold jewelry brands has risen, with Chow Sang Sang's gold price at ¥1411 per gram, up ¥8 from the previous day and ¥44 from December 22; Lao Feng Xiang at ¥1406, up ¥7 from the previous day and ¥41 from December 22; and Chow Tai Fook at ¥1410, up ¥7 from the previous day and ¥42 from December 22 [3] - A report from Dongfang Jincheng indicates that the rise in gold prices is primarily due to the weak labor market in the U.S., as evidenced by the November unemployment rate, which supports expectations for continued monetary easing and potential interest rate cuts by the Federal Reserve, thereby bolstering gold prices [4] Group 2 - Analysis from Wang Yongzhong, Director of the International Commodity Research Office at the Chinese Academy of Social Sciences, suggests that silver, being a precious metal like gold, is expected to experience a "catch-up demand" due to its relatively low valuation compared to gold, which has already seen significant price increases [5]

当周生生、周大福的足金饰品标价单日跳涨35元/克，当国际金价以70%的年涨幅碾压多数资产类别，我们正见证一个历史性时刻——12月24日，现货黄金 首次突破4500美元/盎司关口。这场持续两年的黄金牛市背后，究竟是美联储政策转向的狂欢，还是新一轮泡沫的前兆？ 三大引擎推动金价狂飙 美国11月失业率创四年新低的信号，叠加核心CPI数据不及预期，彻底点燃了市场对美联储降息的押注。东方金诚研究发展部高级副总监瞿瑞指出，劳动力 市场降温与美元指数走弱形成双重利好，而日本央行加息利空出尽后，更多资金选择回归黄金的避险港湾。 国际投行的乐观预期更添一把火。摩根士丹利预测2026年金价将达4800美元，摩根大通甚至上看5055美元，高盛则在最新报告中给出4900美元的目标价。这 些预测的核心逻辑在于：全球央行持续购金（预计2026年月均70吨）、美元霸权松动以及地缘政治风险的长期化。 历史警示：黄金并非永动机 就在市场一片沸腾之际，上海半夏投资李蓓的抛售宣言显得格外刺耳。她提醒投资者回顾1980-2000年的二十年熊市，当时央行抛售潮曾让黄金跌去三分之 二市值。更值得警惕的是，俄罗斯央行近期出售黄金的操作，与人民币国际化进程 ...