Group 1 - The recent easing of international trade tensions has led to a rapid recovery in market risk appetite, resulting in a significant decline in gold prices, with London gold spot prices dropping 3.66% to $3202.2 per ounce and COMEX gold futures falling 3.72% to $3205 per ounce [2] - Analysts indicate that the adjustment in precious metal prices is primarily due to the unexpected extent of the easing in trade tensions, prompting a shift of funds from safe-haven assets to riskier assets [2][3] - The geopolitical landscape has also contributed to the decline in gold prices, with expectations of improved U.S.-Iran relations and a reduction in tensions between India and Pakistan [3] Group 2 - Speculative net long positions in COMEX gold decreased by 1,300 contracts to 161,200 contracts, while the long-to-short ratio rebounded by 1.6% [3] - The outlook for precious metals remains mixed, with key resistance levels providing support, and expectations of a shift in U.S. Federal Reserve policy potentially limiting further price declines [3][4] - The market is advised to monitor changes in U.S. Treasury yields, as recent political disagreements have impacted market expectations significantly [5]

Group 1: Market Performance - The majority of Asia-Pacific stock markets recorded gains last week, with the Jakarta Composite Index leading with a weekly increase of 4.01% [1] - Other notable performances include the Nikkei 225 Index rising by 0.67%, the KOSPI Index increasing by 1.92%, and the S&P/ASX200 Index up by 1.37% [1][2] - Most Asia-Pacific stock markets have seen five consecutive weeks of increases, although some indices experienced slight pullbacks [2] Group 2: Economic Factors - The reduction of bilateral tariffs between the US and China has alleviated market tensions and boosted investor confidence, contributing to the rise in Asia-Pacific stock markets [2] - The US Consumer Price Index (CPI) for April showed a year-on-year increase of 2.3%, lower than the expected 2.4%, which has led to increased expectations for interest rate cuts [2][3] - Economic fundamentals, such as better-than-expected export growth in China and Japan, are providing internal support for the rise in Asia-Pacific stock markets [2][3] Group 3: Foreign Investment - There has been a significant influx of foreign capital into Asia-Pacific markets, with overseas investors net buying over 8 trillion yen (approximately $57 billion) in Japanese stocks and bonds in April, the highest level since 2005 [3] - Thailand's stock market also saw strong foreign interest, with international funds net buying $9.95 million in Thai stocks, marking the highest level since February [4] Group 4: Currency Trends - Despite the rise in stock markets, most Asia-Pacific currencies depreciated against the US dollar last week, with the Thai baht down 1.12% and the Singapore dollar down 0.19% [5] - The future performance of Asia-Pacific currencies will largely depend on US Federal Reserve interest rate cut expectations and China's economic policies [5] Group 5: Central Bank Actions - Central banks in Thailand and Malaysia may consider interest rate cuts to support their economies, while Indonesia and the Philippines have less incentive to lower rates [6] - The IMF has noted that Singapore's fiscal and monetary policies are adequately supporting its economy, with sufficient fiscal space to provide targeted support if needed [5] Group 6: Trade Dynamics - South Korea's exports to China have rebounded, with exports to China accounting for 21.8% of total exports in early May, driven by stable demand and deepening industrial ties [7][8] - Cooperation between Chinese and South Korean companies in sectors like electric vehicles and cosmetics is enhancing trade, with significant growth in exports of related materials and products [8]

Core Insights - Emerging market assets are experiencing a strong recovery, with the MSCI Emerging Markets Currency Index rising for five consecutive weeks, marking the longest streak in 2023 [1] - The MSCI Emerging Markets Stock Index increased by 3% to 3,278 points, reaching its highest level since October 2024, indicating a significant return of global capital to emerging economies [1] Currency Performance - The five-week rise in the currency index is attributed to the Federal Reserve's pause in interest rate hikes, leading to a decline in the US dollar index [3] - Currencies such as the Brazilian real, Indian rupee, and South African rand have appreciated over 2% against the dollar in the past month, with the Indonesian rupiah rising 1.8% in one week due to increased commodity exports [3] - Emerging market central banks have seen foreign exchange reserves grow for three consecutive months, enhancing their currency defense capabilities [3] Stock Market Dynamics - The stock index's performance is driven by structural opportunities, particularly in the semiconductor sector in Asia, which has benefited from surging demand for AI hardware, with tech stocks in South Korea and Taiwan averaging a 5.3% increase [3] - The consumer sector in Latin America has seen significant institutional investment following a decline in inflation in Brazil, leading to increased allocations [3] - Recent data indicates that emerging market equity funds saw a net inflow of $4.7 billion over the past two weeks, the highest level since Q3 2024 [3] Market Drivers - The current market rally is supported by three main drivers: expectations of a Fed rate cut in June, easing geopolitical tensions in the Middle East leading to lower oil prices, and confirmed policy continuity in countries like India and Mexico post-elections, boosting infrastructure and manufacturing investments [4] - The yield premium of emerging market local currency bonds over developed countries has widened to 400 basis points, attracting sovereign funds and pension funds for rebalancing [4] Regional Disparities - There are notable regional disparities, with Eastern European markets facing pressure from EU carbon tax regulations, and Argentina experiencing high currency volatility, indicating a need for deeper structural reforms [4] - Investors are advised to monitor Vietnam's GDP data, as its export-driven economy's ability to maintain recovery momentum could be crucial for the sustainability of emerging market growth [4] Valuation Metrics - As of the report, the forward P/E ratio for the MSCI Emerging Markets Index stands at 12.7 times, with a narrowing discount rate to developed countries at 18%, aligning with the five-year average [4] - If the US dollar index remains weak, emerging market assets are expected to continue generating excess returns in Q3 [4]

Core Viewpoint - The significant drop in gold prices is attributed to improved US-China trade negotiations and a general easing of geopolitical tensions, leading to reduced demand for gold as a safe-haven asset [3]. Group 1: Market Reaction - On May 16, spot gold prices fell dramatically, dropping $20 to below $3160 per ounce, with a daily decline of 2.56% [1] - New York futures gold also experienced a 2% drop, settling at $3162.00 per ounce, while London gold and COMEX gold reported similar declines [1]. Group 2: Factors Influencing Gold Prices - The easing of market tensions due to positive developments in US-China trade talks has led to a significant outflow of funds from the gold market into riskier assets [3]. - Geopolitical stability is indicated by the first direct talks between Russia and Ukraine in over three years, further enhancing market risk appetite and diminishing gold's appeal [3]. - Technical analysis shows that gold's repeated failures to break the $3200 per ounce psychological barrier led to increased selling pressure once this support level was breached [3]. Group 3: Economic Indicators - The US April CPI data showed moderate performance, dampening expectations for significant interest rate cuts by the Federal Reserve, which in turn strengthened the dollar and pressured gold prices [3]. - A report from Citigroup on May 12 revised the three-month gold price target down from $3500 to $3150 per ounce, citing the easing of tariff concerns as a core reason for the price adjustment [3]. Group 4: Investor Behavior - Investors who previously bought gold at high prices are now facing significant losses, with one example showing a drop from a purchase price of 830 yuan per gram to around 758 yuan, resulting in a loss of approximately 72 yuan per gram [3]. - Some investors have successfully locked in profits by selling at high prices, while others are waiting for further declines to enter the market [3].

Group 1 - The core viewpoint of the articles indicates a significant decline in gold prices, with spot gold dropping by $20 to below $3160 per ounce, marking a 2.56% decrease on May 16 [1] - On the same day, the price of gold jewelry fell below 1000 yuan per gram, reflecting a broader trend in the gold market [2] - Factors contributing to the decline in gold prices include progress in US-China tariff negotiations, a decrease in geopolitical tensions, and a failure to maintain the psychological support level of $3200 per ounce, leading to increased technical selling pressure [4] Group 2 - The US April CPI data showed moderate performance, which cooled market expectations for significant interest rate cuts by the Federal Reserve, resulting in a stronger dollar that further pressured gold prices [5] - Citigroup has revised its gold price outlook, lowering the three-month target from $3500 to $3150 per ounce, a reduction of 10%, citing easing tariff concerns as a key reason for the price adjustment [5] - Citigroup's analysts predict that gold prices will oscillate between $3000 and $3300 per ounce in the near term, indicating a more rational volatility in the current complex market environment [5]

Group 1: Gold Market Analysis - The international gold price fell on May 16, with a potential for the largest weekly decline in six months, driven by a stronger dollar and reduced concerns over the US-China trade war, diminishing gold's appeal as a safe-haven asset [2] - As of the report, spot gold decreased by 1.83% to $3,181.19, with a weekly drop exceeding 3%, marking the worst weekly performance since November 2024 [2] - The market has adjusted its expectations for interest rate cuts by the Federal Reserve, now anticipating a reduction of about 58 basis points this year, down from a peak of 120 basis points during the panic in April [2] Group 2: Technical Analysis of Gold - On the daily chart, gold showed a strong bullish reversal after hitting a low of 3,120, with a target to test the upper channel at 3,500-3,438, provided that the 3,120 level holds [3] - The recent trading has been influenced by the timing of Russia-Ukraine negotiations, with key resistance at 3,211-3,212 [3] - Short-term analysis indicates a potential for a second bottom test followed by a rebound, with critical resistance at 3,211-3,212 and support levels at 3,150 and 3,140 [5] Group 3: Oil Market Analysis - On May 16, international oil prices experienced slight upward movement, trading around $61.98 per barrel, following a significant drop the previous day [6] - The rebound was attributed to easing global trade tensions, which alleviated concerns about the global economy and oil demand, despite ongoing supply surplus pressures [6] - Oil prices had previously fallen over 2% due to comments from President Trump regarding nearing a nuclear deal with Iran, although key differences remain unresolved [6] Group 4: Technical Analysis of Oil - The mid-term outlook for oil prices indicates downward pressure from the moving average system, with expectations of a decline towards the $50 level after a series of price fluctuations [7] - Short-term trends show oil prices testing the $60 support level, with a potential for a small upward movement before facing resistance around $63.50 [7] - The recommended trading strategy suggests focusing on short positions during rebounds, with key resistance at $63.5-$64.0 and support at $60.5-$60.0 [7]

Group 1: Gold Market Dynamics - The gold market experienced a significant reversal, with spot gold prices initially dropping nearly 2% to $3120.64, before rebounding to close at $3239.58, marking a daily increase of nearly 2% and a fluctuation of over $100 [1] - The recent volatility in gold prices is attributed to multiple factors, including reduced demand for safe-haven assets due to easing trade war concerns and a strengthening dollar, while a recovery in physical demand provided some support [14] Group 2: U.S. Economic Indicators - The U.S. economy is showing signs of weakness, with April's PPI experiencing its largest decline in five years, retail sales slowing, and the New York Fed manufacturing index contracting again, which has heightened expectations for potential interest rate cuts by the Federal Reserve [3] - Federal Reserve Chairman Jerome Powell indicated that the U.S. may be entering a period of more frequent and prolonged supply shocks, posing challenges for both the economy and the Fed [5] - Despite concerns about a potential recession, there is a cautious optimism among investors as the U.S. stock market shows resilience, although macro and micro-level risks remain [6] Group 3: International Monetary Policy - Mexico's central bank announced a 50 basis point cut in its benchmark interest rate to 8.00%, with indications that similar reductions may follow in future meetings [8] - Goldman Sachs has revised its economic growth forecasts for Mexico, projecting GDP stability in 2025 and an increase in growth expectations for 2026 [8] Group 4: Geopolitical Tensions - The situation in Israel escalated as Houthi forces claimed to have targeted Ben Gurion International Airport with a missile strike, indicating a potential increase in military actions [9][11] - The ongoing Russia-Ukraine negotiations have faced delays, with uncertainty surrounding the timing and agenda of future talks [12]

关 注 我 们 获 目录 瑞达期货研究院 「2025.05.16」 贵金属市场周报 关税局势显著缓和，金价如期大幅回调 作者：廖宏斌 期货投资咨询证号：Z0020723 联系电话：0595-86778969 取 更 多 资 讯 业 务 咨 询 添 加 客 服 1、周度要点小结 2、期现市场 3、产业情况 4、宏观及期权 「 周度要点小结」 来源：瑞达期货研究院 3 ◆ 行情回顾：受关税及地缘风险缓和影响，贵金属市场本周大幅走弱。周初印度和巴基斯坦达成 停火协议削弱避险需求，中美贸易谈判取得突破性进展更是令市场风险偏好显著回暖，美国对 华关税税率由145%大幅下调至30%，中国对美关税也降至10%，大幅超市场预期的关税谈判进展 推动美元和美债收益率同步走强，金价承压下行。随后公布的美国4月通胀数据虽现回升但整 体延续放缓趋势，CPI同比增速2.3%低于预期，核心CPI持平于2.8%，关税相关的价格压力尚未 完全传导至消费端，这为美联储后续政策转向预留空间。美国4月PPI放缓及制造业数据疲软暗 示企业正承受关税压力，零售销售增速显著回落印证消费动能减弱，叠加鲍威尔发言再度强调 未来经济形势的不确定性，经济数据分化 ...

【消息面】 2，小时图，黄金早间上涨3252美元附近转空回落，K线3连阴，当前运行在3209美元附近，KDJ指标超买后转为了高位死叉，附图拐头向下， MACD指标红色多头动能缩量，短线走势相对偏空。结合日线走势看，黄金日内操作倾向上涨做空单为主，短多思路交易，下方关注中轨3196美 元支撑，上方关注早间高点3252美元破位情况。 【5.16黄金交易建议】 【黄金行情走势简析】 1，上一个交易日，黄金波幅较大，亚盘黄金上涨3192.7美元震荡下跌，欧盘黄金跌至60日均线3121美元触底反弹，晚间黄金重新站上3200美元， 最高涨至3240.4美元，日涨幅120美金，日线收下影大阳线，TRIX趋势依旧是死叉，MACD指标绿色空头动能放量，日线走势未明显转多，走势 依旧相对偏空。 周四，黄金市场出现了"惊天逆转"的大行情，黄金价格在亚市早盘曾下跌近2%触及的3120.64美元（逾一个月低点），随后多头展开反攻，帮助金 价暴力拉升，最终收于3239.58美元，单日涨幅近2%，振幅超过100美元！ 周五（5月16日）亚市早盘，现货黄金延续涨势，一度顶破3250关口至3252.06美元/盎司，一方面是俄乌和谈推迟至周五， ...

操作思路： 日线级别，金价昨日上演超级过山车走势录得低位阴转阳收盘，盘中曾一度下探3120低点后快速收复本周大部分跌幅，至此局面或令短期陷入更大空间内争 夺，交易者暂关注3150-3260范围内多空拉扯。1--4小时级别，短线走势自3415高位连续下跌后本周破位3200关口延续下探，隔夜盘中曾短暂测试3120后迅速 回升重新收复3200扩大涨势。截止当前欧盘前，价格虽回吐部分空间但仍守住3200以上范围盘踞，或有望结束单边下行后转向震荡区间运行。交易者日内以 3170--3250区间内震荡操作为主，关注短期市场突破选择。 美元指数0.2%的跌幅看似微不足道，但在特定背景下却成为压垮骆驼的最后一根稻草。周四的行情完美诠释了这一点。在疲软经济数据打压下，周四美元 指数下跌0.2%至100.82回附近；实际利率下行：10年期TIPS收益率跌至1.8%下方。周四的数据为美联储降息创造了更大的空间，市场形成了更加鸽派的预 期。 地缘局势方面，俄乌局势在5月15日出现戏剧性转折，普京拒绝与泽连斯基会面，仅派出"二级官员代表团"。泽连斯基怒斥："这是对我个人、对埃尔多安、 对特朗普的不尊重"。俄罗斯外长发言人冷嘲："乌克兰 ...