Core Viewpoint - The Federal Reserve's Williams stated that inflation expectations have been solidified [1] Group 1 - The Federal Reserve is focusing on maintaining stable inflation expectations to support economic growth [1] - Williams emphasized the importance of managing inflation to ensure long-term economic stability [1] - The comments reflect the Fed's ongoing commitment to its inflation targets [1]

Summary of Key Points from Conference Call Industry and Company Involved - The discussion primarily revolves around the U.S. stock market, macroeconomic conditions, and the impact of U.S.-China trade relations, particularly focusing on the actions and statements of former President Trump regarding tariffs and trade deficits. Core Insights and Arguments - **Market Volatility**: The U.S. stock market experienced significant volatility, with the S&P 500 futures dropping approximately 5% before rebounding and then closing slightly lower, showcasing a daily fluctuation of 8.5% [3][4] - **Record Trading Volume**: The trading volume reached historical highs, with over 280 billion shares traded, following a previous day of 260 billion shares [3] - **Impact of Tariff Rumors**: Initial rumors about Trump delaying tariffs for 90 days led to market fluctuations, but these were later disproven, indicating the market's sensitivity to news regarding tariffs [3] - **Bond Market Reaction**: The U.S. 10-year Treasury yield surged above 4.1%, and the spread on high-yield corporate bonds reached its highest point since October 2023, reflecting increased market anxiety [4] - **VIX Index Surge**: The VIX index, which measures market volatility, spiked by 120% over three days, indicating heightened uncertainty in the market [4] - **Inflation Concerns**: The discussions highlighted concerns about rising inflation due to tariffs, which could lead to increased price volatility in the real economy [4] Additional Important Content - **Trade Deficit Misconceptions**: Trump's view that trade deficits are a "loss" and his insistence on tariffs as a means to achieve trade balance were critiqued. The argument was made that trade balance is a global issue rather than a bilateral one, and tariffs cannot change the competitive advantages that countries have developed over decades [6] - **Hong Kong Market Analysis**: The Hang Seng Index and related stocks reached critical support levels at the intersection of the 850-day and 200-day moving averages, indicating potential for a technical rebound [7][15] - **Government Intervention**: It was suggested that the Chinese government would likely intervene to stabilize the market, with expectations of interest rate cuts and consumer stimulus policies being introduced soon [8] This summary encapsulates the key points discussed in the conference call, focusing on market dynamics, macroeconomic implications, and the broader context of U.S.-China trade relations.

文/《清华金融评论》 王茅 北京时间4月3日凌晨，特朗普公布了备受瞩目的新一轮关税举措，导致全 球股市普跌，今日跌幅最大的是越南和日本股市，金价则再创新高。受美 国关税政策影响，美联储短期内或难以下调利率。市场将密切关注关税反 制措施。 对等关税整体力度大超预期，导致股市普跌，黄金再创新高 特朗普新一轮关税政策分为基准关税和对等关税两部分。基准关税提升10%，4月5日起生效，整体而言 低于市场此前预期。 而对等关税，整体力度大幅超过预期，预计4月9日起生效，其中对中国加征34%关税（合计54%）， 对欧盟加征20%关税，对日本加征24%关税，对越南加征46%关税，对印度加征26%，对韩国加征25% 关税等。 值得注意的是，加拿大、墨西哥并未被列入对等关税名单当中 ， "美墨加"协定下的商品关税豁免将继 续下去。 在对等关税的冲击下，各国股市纷纷走低，今天跌幅最大的是越南和日本，越南股市暴跌7%，日本股 市大跌3%。 A股与H股延续调整，收盘时上证指数下跌0.24%，恒生指数下跌1.52%，人民币对美元一度贬至7.35。 美国对华加征关税54%，大超市场此前预期，中国资产尚未充分定价关税冲击带来的影响，贸易摩擦 ...

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Core Viewpoint - The Federal Reserve, led by Chairman Powell, indicates that there is no immediate need to lower interest rates despite uncertainties stemming from the Trump administration's trade policies. The current economic conditions remain stable, and the Fed will adopt a patient approach while awaiting clearer signals regarding the economic outlook [1][2]. Economic Conditions - Powell emphasizes that the U.S. economy is currently in good shape, with a balanced and robust job market. The Fed's focus is on distinguishing genuine signals from market noise amid economic changes [1][4]. - The February non-farm payroll report showed a job growth of 151,000, slightly below market expectations, and the unemployment rate unexpectedly rose to 4.1%, the highest since November of the previous year [3]. Trade Policy Impact - The uncertainty brought about by the Trump administration's trade policies is acknowledged as a significant factor affecting economic conditions. The Fed is assessing the impact of these trade policy changes, which have heightened economic uncertainty [1][4]. - Powell notes that the rise in tariffs is pushing up prices for certain goods, which could affect inflation expectations. However, long-term inflation expectations remain stable and aligned with the Fed's targets [5]. Inflation and Interest Rates - The Fed is closely monitoring consumer and business inflation expectations, as these can become self-fulfilling. If long-term inflation expectations rise, the Fed may reconsider its stance on interest rate cuts [5]. - Powell suggests that if the tariff impacts are deemed temporary, the Fed may choose to ignore them in its monetary policy decisions [5]. Market Reactions - Following Powell's remarks, U.S. stock indices initially dropped but later rebounded, with the Nasdaq rising over 0.9%. Treasury yields also experienced fluctuations, indicating market volatility in response to the Fed's communication [7].