Group 1: Gold Market - Geopolitical tensions have recently increased due to U.S. actions against Venezuela, but risk aversion has cooled after several days of market digestion [1] - The world's largest gold ETF has reduced its holdings twice recently, with a significant cut of 5.43 tons on January 2, bringing total holdings to 1065.13 tons, indicating a slight decline in bullish sentiment towards gold [1] - Analyst Chen Yu from Bailihao believes that expectations of a Federal Reserve rate cut have driven gold prices higher, but the likelihood of a rate cut in January is low, suggesting investors should be cautious of short-term price corrections [1] - On the technical front, the market has shown strength with a bullish daily close, and prices are above the 20-day moving average, with support at $4416 and resistance at $4500 [1] Group 2: Oil Market - Saudi Aramco has lowered its crude oil sales prices to major Asian customers for the third consecutive month, with the price of its flagship Arab Light crude reaching a five-year low, indicating weak demand from Asian buyers [2] - The price spread between Dubai benchmark crude and Brent crude futures has widened to the highest level since August, reflecting an oversupply in the market [2] - Since April 2025, OPEC+ has been increasing production, leading to a situation where global supply exceeds demand, with the International Energy Agency (IEA) warning of significant oversupply pressures on oil prices [2] - On the technical side, the market has shown strong upward movement with a bullish daily close, and prices are above the 20-day moving average, with support at $57 [2] Group 3: U.S. Dollar Index - The U.S. dollar is showing weakness, with potential to break previous lows, as geopolitical risks provide limited support and a rate cut cycle looms [3] - The U.S. job market is showing signs of deterioration, with the unemployment rate rising from 4% at the beginning of last year to 4.6% in November, with projections indicating it may exceed 5% soon [3] - Employment market pressures may force the Federal Reserve to accelerate rate cuts, with potential cuts of up to 125 basis points to 2.25% by year-end if labor market conditions worsen [3] - Technically, the dollar index has formed a bearish pattern with a long upper shadow on the daily chart, indicating a failed challenge at key resistance levels [3] Group 4: Nikkei 225 - The Nikkei 225 index has shown strong upward movement recently, breaking out of a previous consolidation range, suggesting potential for further gains [4] - The market is expected to test support at the 52214 level during any pullbacks [4] Group 5: Copper Market - The copper market is exhibiting strong upward momentum, with indicators showing a bullish trend following a golden cross between the 20-day and 62-day moving averages [5] - There is potential for further price increases, with support at the 5.92 level [5]

Group 1 - The return of "geopolitical premium" indicates that geopolitical risks are becoming a dominant market factor, but the current macro backdrop of high supply and weak demand will limit its intensity [2] - Safe-haven sentiment is expected to rise selectively, with funds likely flowing into core safe-haven assets like gold and the US dollar, rather than a broad flight from risk assets [2] - Gold and silver have seen record performances, supported by central bank purchases and inflows into gold ETFs, with prices reaching new highs; however, caution is advised due to potential passive fund sell-offs from upcoming Bloomberg commodity index rebalancing [2] Group 2 - The situation in Venezuela is being closely monitored, with potential for gold prices to maintain high levels unless further news emerges; if the Maduro government falls quickly without leading to a prolonged civil war, the geopolitical premium may quickly recede [4] - Despite significant geopolitical changes marked by Maduro's arrest, early signs suggest that the global oil market will respond relatively smoothly, with Venezuela's oil infrastructure reportedly unaffected by recent US attacks [4] - The US has indicated intentions to rebuild Venezuela's oil industry and sell "large amounts" of oil to global buyers, despite Venezuela's production having drastically declined to less than 1% of global supply [4] Group 3 - Venezuela's state oil company PDVSA has begun to cut oil production as exports have dropped to zero due to ongoing US oil sanctions, leading to increased pressure on the interim government [6] - Hedge funds have increased bullish bets on oil, with a notable rise in net long positions for US benchmark crude, reflecting market speculation regarding potential military actions in South America [6] - The new acting president, Delcy Rodriguez, may lead Venezuela into a prolonged political struggle, with short-term oil price spikes possible due to geopolitical risks, but global oversupply and Venezuela's minimal production will limit price increases [8]

市场解读： 1月6日，在2026年开年之际，全球金融市场迎来了一场剧烈的震动。美国对委内瑞拉发动突然军事行 动，直接逮捕了总统马杜罗及其妻子，这一事件堪称自1989年美国入侵巴拿马以来，拉美地区最直接、 最具戏剧性的干预行动。这一地缘政治风暴瞬间点燃了市场的避险情绪，推动黄金价格急速攀升，现货 金一度触及近一周高点，甚至逼近历史纪录高点。这不仅仅是一场政治事件，更是对黄金作为终极避险 资产地位的又一次有力印证。在不确定性笼罩全球的背景下，黄金的牛市行情似乎才刚刚进入高潮阶 段。本交易日将出炉欧美国家12月PMI数据终值，投资者需要予以留意，另外，需要关注美联储官员的 讲话和地缘局势的进一步消息。 黄金技术分析 黄金周一盘面呈现"突破-回落-再拉升"的强势格局：早盘上破4400关键阻力后，亚欧盘延续上行态势最 高触及4439；美盘时段出现短暂回调，最低下探4395后迅速企稳反弹，午夜时段再度发力冲高，刷新日 内高点至4459。 当前市场缺乏重大数据指引，技术结构成为核心主导逻辑：其一，头肩底形态保持完整，颈线位4400实 现"顶底转换"，该价位未有效破位前，多头趋势根基稳固；其二，日线级别收出实体大阳，强趋势下 ...

1月6日，昨日黄金迎来强势上涨行情。亚盘开盘直接高开高走，随后虽有所回落并一度小幅跌破4400美 元关口，但美盘时段再度强势拉升，晚间更是触及4450美元上方。尾盘阶段，金价在高位企稳，最终收 盘于4448美元，日线收出一根实体大阳线。 尽管事件本身暂无进一步升级的迹象（军事行动已暂停），但其引发的后续连锁反应仍在持续发酵：瑞 士冻结马杜罗资产、哥伦比亚发表强硬表态、油轮突破封锁等动态，仍在不断为市场制造不确定性。 然而，需要警惕的是，纯粹由避险情绪驱动的行情，往往会在情绪退潮后出现"过山车"式的剧烈波动。 今日若局势没有新的爆点，避险情绪对金价的支撑力度将边际减弱。当然，鉴于特朗普近期还对多个南 美国家发出威胁，一旦再有新的行动，黄金完全可能再次出现激烈的单边上涨。因此，在当前这个敏感 复杂的节点上进行操作，核心原则与以往一致：无论做多还是做空，都务必严格设置好止损与止盈，以 防范市场情绪的快速逆转。 从技术上来看，日内黄金暂看其维持偏强震荡，也继续给其一日震荡消化的过程和时间。上方高点先关 注4470-60附近压力，如果进一步走高，则再看4480附近压力测试，下方则关注10日线4415-10附近争 夺，如 ...

Group 1 - The core viewpoint of the articles suggests that geopolitical tensions are escalating, particularly with the actions of the U.S. and its implications for global power dynamics [1][4]. - The articles indicate that the U.S. hegemony is perceived to be declining, leading to a potential return to colonial-like systems, with Eastern powers making progress [1][4]. - There is a forecast of increasing risk aversion globally, which is expected to drive up gold prices, with any price pullbacks seen as mere corrections rather than trend reversals [1][4]. Group 2 - International spot gold experienced a significant rise, opening at around 4344 and reaching a high of 4456, marking an impressive increase of 110 points with only a minor pullback of 20 points [2][5]. - Technical indicators such as the MACD show bullish signals, with a head-and-shoulders pattern forming on the 4-hour chart, suggesting a strong upward trend for gold [2][5]. - Key price levels to watch include a support level around 4393 and a resistance level at previous highs, with a potential test of the 4500 mark if the price breaks above 4450 [2][5].

1月6日，2026年首个交易周的市场波动持续升级，地缘政治风险引发的避险情绪成为黄金市场的核心驱 动力。昨日（1月5日）国际黄金市场受多重利好催化，走出强势突破行情，日线以大阳线形态完美收 官，为今日走势奠定了多头基调，也进一步印证了当前黄金作为终极避险资产的核心价值。 回顾昨日行情，避险情绪的集中释放推动黄金早盘高开高走，开盘价定格在4350.7点位。行情短暂回踩 测试支撑，下探至4344.8的日线低点后迅速获得买盘承接，随后开启强势拉升模式，多头力量持续发力 推动价格一路攀升，日线最高触及4455.6点位，尾盘虽有小幅整理，但最终收线于4448.9点位，形成一 根下影线稍长的大阳线。这一形态不仅体现了市场买方力量的绝对优势，更标志着黄金日线级别有效突 破关键压力位，为后续上行打开了空间。 从技术面来看，昨日的大阳线具有明确的趋势指引意义。根据黄金交易技术分析逻辑，此类下影线稍长 的大阳线出现在震荡整理后期，往往意味着多头已经完成蓄力，成功扭转短期多空博弈格局。结合近期 走势，黄金在突破4400整数关口后，昨日进一步站稳该位置并向更高阻力发起冲击，且有效突破前期关 键压力区域，说明上升趋势得到强化，短期内多 ...

Group 1 - Gold prices continued to rise, reaching $4469.17 per ounce, up 0.47%, with a high of $4469.49 and a low of $4426.09, driven by heightened geopolitical tensions and expectations of interest rate cuts by the Federal Reserve [1] - The recent U.S. military operation in Venezuela has significantly impacted the geopolitical landscape in Latin America, leading to increased uncertainty in energy supply and prompting global investors to seek refuge in gold [2] - Analysts predict that gold will remain a key asset for portfolio hedging, with an expected average price of $4538 per ounce for the year, especially during periods of monetary easing and inflation exceeding 2% [2] Group 2 - The gold market experienced a strong upward movement, opening at $4350.7, dipping to a low of $4344.8, and then rising to a high of $4455.6, closing at $4448.9, indicating a bullish trend [3] - Market participants are advised to adjust their positions with specific stop-loss levels and targets, indicating a strategic approach to trading in the current volatile environment [3]

据知情人士透露，美国中央情报局(CIA)最新机密评估报告认为，若委内瑞拉总统马杜罗下台，其副总 统德尔茜.罗德里格斯及两名核心成员可能是维持短期稳定的最佳临时领导人选。该报告已呈交总统特 朗普，并分发给少数高层官员，成为特朗普支持罗德里格斯而非反对党领袖马查多的关键因素之一。 报告评估了马杜罗倒台后的可能局势，指出罗德里格斯、内政部长卡贝略和国防部长帕德里诺等强硬派 人物，能借助对警察和军方的控制维持秩序。而反对党领袖冈萨雷斯和马查多若掌权，恐难获合法性与 支持，可能遭遇安全部队、贩毒网络及政治对手的抵制。 马查多虽与特朗普政府立场相近，并曾赞扬其强硬政策，但特朗普认为她在委内瑞拉缺乏支持率，无法 顺利接管国家。特朗普政府高层对如何与罗德里格斯合作态度不一，一方面施压其按美国利益行事，另 一方面考虑直接管控委内瑞拉并获取石油等资源。 摘要今日周二(1月6日)亚盘时段，黄金T+D目前交投于1001元附近，截至发稿，黄金T+D暂报1001.56元/ 克，涨幅1.20%，最高触及1002.00元/克，最低下探988.51元/克。目前来看，黄金T+D短线偏向看涨走 势。 分析人士警告，若无可靠继任者，委内瑞拉可能陷入 ...

Market Overview - The gold market experienced profit-taking in the last week of 2025, influenced by selling pressure from other precious metals, leading to increased price volatility during the holiday season [1][12] - The gold-silver ratio fell below 50, indicating a relatively restrained performance of gold amidst the precious metals rally since December [1][12] - Despite short-term emotional impacts from other metals' adjustments, the likelihood of a significant decline in gold prices remains low, with potential for arbitrage funds to enter the gold market [1][13] Geopolitical Events - A significant geopolitical event occurred on January 3, 2026, when the U.S. military launched strikes against Venezuela, creating uncertainty about the country's governance and potentially heightening risk aversion in the market [1][13] Economic Indicators - The U.S. third-quarter GDP growth exceeded expectations, with an annualized quarter-on-quarter increase of 4.3%, significantly above the anticipated 3.3%, marking the fastest growth in two years [2][13] - Strong consumer spending contributed to this growth, with a notable acceleration to 3.5% in the same quarter [2][13] - The core PCE price index rose by 2.9% in the third quarter, and there was a rebound in core capital goods orders and shipments in October [2][13] Commodity Index Adjustments - Starting January 8, 2026, Goldman Sachs Commodity Index will undergo annual weight adjustments, resulting in a slight reduction in the weights of gold and silver due to their significant price increases in 2025 [2][13] - This adjustment may indicate that the short-term correction in the precious metals market is not yet over, although the marginal pressure on gold is not expected to be significant [2][13] Federal Reserve Leadership - President Trump is set to announce the next Federal Reserve Chair in the first week of January 2026, as Jerome Powell's term will end in May [2][14] - Trump expressed a preference for the new chair to lower interest rates when the economy and markets are performing well, rather than preemptively curtailing growth due to inflation concerns [2][14]

研究员：张平 021-60635734 zhangping@ccb.ccbfutures.com 期货从业资格号：F3015713 021-60635729 yufeifei@ccb.ccbfutures.com 期货从业资格号：F3025190 有色金属研究团队 研究员：彭婧霖 pengjinglin@ccb.ccbfutures.com 研究员：余菲菲 请阅读正文后的声明 行业 锌期货日报 日期 2026 年 1 月 6 日 021-60635740 期货从业资格号：F3075681 ＃summary＃ 每日报告 一、 行情回顾 | 表1：期货市场行情 | | | | | | | | | | | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | | 单位：元/吨 | | 开盘 | 收盘 | 最高 | 最低 | 涨跌 | 涨跌幅 | 持仓量 | 持仓量变化 | | 沪锌 | 2601 | 23060 | 23335 | 23385 | 23060 | 115 | 0.50 | 11254 | -2476 | | 沪锌 | 2602 | 2 ...