Report Summary 1. Report Industry Investment Rating - No specific industry investment rating is provided in the report. 2. Core Viewpoints - The short - term, medium - term, and intraday views for TL2512 are "oscillation", with an intraday view of "oscillation on the weak side". The core logic is that the long - term expectation of interest rate cuts remains, but the possibility of a short - term comprehensive interest rate cut is low [1]. - For financial futures in the bond index sector (TL, T, TF, TS), the intraday view is "oscillation on the weak side", the medium - term view is "oscillation", and the reference view is "oscillation". It is expected that Treasury bond futures will mainly undergo low - level oscillation and consolidation in the short term [5]. 3. Summary by Related Content Variety Viewpoint Reference - Financial Futures Stock Index Sector - For TL2512, the short - term view is "oscillation", the medium - term view is "oscillation", the intraday view is "oscillation on the weak side", and the reference view is "oscillation". The core logic is that the long - term expectation of interest rate cuts remains, but the possibility of a short - term comprehensive interest rate cut is low [1]. Main Variety Price Market Driving Logic - Financial Futures Stock Index Sector - The intraday view for TL, T, TF, TS is "oscillation on the weak side", the medium - term view is "oscillation", and the reference view is "oscillation". Yesterday, Treasury bond futures maintained low - level oscillation and consolidation. Today, the stock market rose unilaterally, and the recovery of stock market risk appetite suppressed the bond market. Inflation data is still weak, and subsequent policy - makers will continue to introduce policies to stabilize demand to promote a moderate recovery of inflation. It is expected that fiscal policies will be strengthened in the fourth quarter, which will put pressure on the supply side of Treasury bonds. Since there is no need for a short - term comprehensive interest rate cut, the downward space for market interest rates is limited, and the upward momentum of Treasury bond futures is insufficient. In general, Treasury bond futures are expected to mainly undergo low - level oscillation and consolidation in the short term [5].

Core Insights - The report indicates that fiscal policy has become more proactive this year, with overall budget execution and fiscal operations remaining stable [1][2] Fiscal Revenue and Expenditure - From January to July, the national general public budget revenue reached 135,839 billion yuan, showing a year-on-year growth of 0.1% [1] - During the same period, national general public budget expenditure was 160,737 billion yuan, reflecting a year-on-year increase of 3.4% [1] Implementation of Fiscal Policies - The government has implemented more proactive fiscal policies, including measures to boost consumption, such as personal consumption loans and subsidies for elderly care services [1][2] - The scope of subsidies has been expanded to include the scrapping and updating of automobiles and the replacement of household appliances, as well as digital products like mobile phones [1] Future Fiscal Policy Directions - The report outlines plans to enhance the execution of fiscal policies, focusing on accelerating budget execution, improving fund utilization efficiency, and ensuring fund security [3] - Key future initiatives include supporting employment and foreign trade, fostering new growth drivers, and enhancing fiscal governance effectiveness [3]

1. Report Industry Investment Rating - No relevant content provided 2. Core Viewpoints of the Report - On September 11, 2025, the spot yields of treasury bonds mostly strengthened, with the ultra - long end weakening. Treasury bond futures showed short - term strength and long - term weakness. The domestic fundamental situation indicated a stable recovery of the overall price level, and overseas, the downward revision of US non - farm employment data led to market expectations of a Fed rate cut in September, creating room for China's overall easing policy. Recently, the bond market has been weak, driven by pessimistic sentiment. It is recommended to observe the adjustment of bond futures in the short term and consider band allocation after stabilization, while also paying attention to opportunities for the expansion of term spreads due to a steeper yield curve [2] 3. Summary by Relevant Catalogs 3.1 Futures Disk - T主力收盘价107.580, up 0.07%, with a trading volume of 30,204 (an increase); TF主力收盘价105.590, up 0.14%, with a trading volume of 17,654 (an increase); TS主力收盘价102.410, up 0.06%, with a trading volume of 3,960 (an increase); TL主力收盘价114.740, down 0.11%, with a trading volume of 37,306 (an increase) [2] 3.2 Futures Spreads - TL2512 - 2509 spread was - 7.16, down - 0.44, up 0.16; T12 - TL12 spread increased by 0.11; T2512 - 2509 spread was - 1.99, down - 0.30, down 0.06; TF12 - T12 spread increased by 0.08; TF2512 - 2509 spread was - 5.17, down - 0.18, down 0.03; TS12 - T12 spread decreased by 0.03; TS2512 - 2509 spread was - 3.18, up 0.06, up 0.03; TS12 - TF12 spread decreased by - 0.11 [2] 3.3 Futures Positions - T主力持仓量 was 196,841, an increase of 5,005; T前20名多头 increased by 2,529; T前20名空头 increased by 7,964; T前20名净空仓 decreased by 5,435; TF主力持仓量 was 122,214, an increase of 2,666; TF前20名多头 increased by 1,461; TF前20名空头 increased by 2,478; TF前20名净空仓 increased by 1,017; TS主力持仓量 was 54,959, an increase of 181; TS前20名多头 decreased by 632; TS前20名空头 increased by 425; TS前20名净空仓 increased by 1,057; TL主力持仓量 was 119,162, an increase of 1,940; TL前20名多头 increased by 2,127; TL前20名空头 increased by 5,973; TL前20名净空仓 increased by 3,846 [2] 3.4 Top Two CTD (Clean Prices) - 220017.IB(6y) was 99.0955, up 0.0984; 220019.IB(6y) was up 0.0820; 230006.IB(4y) was 100.8844, up 0.0306; 240020.IB(4y) was up 0.1465; 250012.IB(1.7y) was 101.9942, up 0.0432; 220016.IB(2y) was up 0.0157; 210005.IB(17y) was 122.5704, down - 0.0023; 220008.IB(18y) was down - 0.1141 [2] 3.5 Active Treasury Bond Coupons - 1 - year coupon was 1.4300%, up 1.00bp; 3 - year coupon was up 0.75bp; 5 - year coupon was 1.7525%, up 1.75bp; 7 - year coupon was up 2.00bp; 10 - year coupon was 1.8150%, up 2.00bp [2] 3.6 Short - term Interest Rates - Overnight silver - pledged repo rate was 1.3690%, up 4.46bp; Shibor overnight was down 5.60bp; 7 - day silver - pledged repo rate was 1.4660%, up 3.05bp; Shibor 7 - day was up 1.70bp; 14 - day silver - pledged repo rate was 1.5100%, down 3.00bp; Shibor 14 - day was up 0.90bp [2] 3.7 LPR Interest Rates - 1 - year LPR was 3.5%, unchanged; 5 - year LPR was unchanged [2] 3.8 Open Market Operations - Issuance scale was 292 billion yuan, maturity scale was 212.6 billion yuan, and the interest rate was 1.4% for 7 - day reverse repos [2] 3.9 Industry News - In August, China's CPI was flat month - on - month and down 0.4% year - on - year, with core CPI up 0.9% year - on - year. PPI was flat month - on - month and down 2.9% year - on - year, with the decline narrowing. The Ministry of Finance stated that fiscal policies have been more proactive this year. From March 2024 to March 2025, US private non - farm employment decreased by 880,000, with various sectors seeing employment declines [2] 3.10 Key Points to Watch - At 20:15 on September 11, the European Central Bank's interest rate decision; at 20:30 on September 11, US August CPI and core CPI data [3]

Group 1: Macroeconomic Insights - In August 2025, China's CPI decreased by 0.4% year-on-year, lower than the expected decline of 0.2%, and the PPI fell by 2.9% year-on-year, slightly better than the previous month's decline of 3.6% [3][4] - The report highlights that the current market has fully priced in a 25 basis points rate cut by the Federal Reserve in September, with inflation data from August potentially influencing the decision for a 50 basis points cut [4][5] Group 2: Technology Sector Developments - Apple's recent product launch introduced the iPhone 17 series, including the thinnest iPhone Air model at 5.6 mm, featuring a self-developed baseband and Wi-Fi chip, and a price starting at $799, unchanged from the previous year [5][6] - The report notes that the overall hardware upgrades met expectations, but there was limited discussion on AI functionalities, indicating a potential area for future development [5] Group 3: AI and Industry Trends - The report discusses the contrasting views on AI's impact on society, with optimistic perspectives emphasizing its empowering potential, while cautious viewpoints highlight systemic risks [7][8] - It suggests that companies adopting a transparent and adaptable approach to AI integration will likely succeed in navigating challenges and achieving sustainable growth [7] Group 4: Coal Mining and Automation - The report indicates that the automation rate in coal mining is expected to rise significantly, with projections suggesting that by 2026, 30% of coal mines will be automated, driven by policy support and technological advancements [10][11] - Companies such as Tianma Zhikong and XCMG are highlighted as key players in this transition towards intelligent mining solutions [10] Group 5: Real Estate Market Analysis - The U.S. housing market in the first half of 2025 faced challenges due to high prices and interest rates, leading to a decline in affordability and a decrease in new and existing home sales [13][14] - The report anticipates that the construction activity may become more conservative due to high material costs and increasing inventory pressures, with new home starts expected to continue declining [13]

Core Insights - The report highlights a significant recovery in the A-share market, with various sectors showing positive performance, particularly in growth industries such as communication services and gaming [5][9][10] - The report indicates that the average P/E ratios for the Shanghai Composite Index and the ChiNext Index are above their median levels over the past three years, suggesting a favorable environment for medium to long-term investments [8][9][10] - The report emphasizes the importance of government policies aimed at stabilizing the economy and promoting consumption, which are expected to provide strong support for the market [8][9][10] Domestic Market Performance - The Shanghai Composite Index closed at 3,812.22 with a slight increase of 0.13%, while the Shenzhen Component Index rose by 0.38% to 12,557.68 [4] - The A-share market has seen a consistent trading volume exceeding 20 trillion yuan, indicating robust market activity [8][9][10] Industry Analysis - The media sector reported a notable increase in revenue and net profit for the first half of 2025, with total revenue reaching 2,728.86 billion yuan, a year-on-year growth of 2.91% [14][15] - The gaming sub-sector showed strong growth potential, driven by high market demand and improved policy environment, while the film and television sector faced challenges due to a sluggish market [15][16] - The food and beverage sector experienced a 7.34% increase in performance in August, with strong contributions from snacks, soft drinks, and liquor [18][19] - The chemical industry saw a 10.21% increase in the basic chemical index in August, with a focus on sectors like fluorine chemicals and modified plastics [22][23] Investment Recommendations - The report suggests focusing on sectors with strong fundamentals and growth potential, such as gaming, liquor, and new energy vehicles [15][19][24] - It also recommends monitoring the chemical industry for investment opportunities, particularly in segments with improving supply-demand dynamics [22][23] Key Data Updates - The report provides insights into the performance of various indices, with the new materials index outperforming the Shanghai Composite Index by 4.68 percentage points in August [29] - The report notes that the semiconductor sector continues to show growth, with global sales increasing by 19.6% year-on-year [29]

Group 1 - The core viewpoint of the report emphasizes the implementation of a more proactive fiscal policy to ensure stable budget execution and financial operations [1][2] - The report outlines the intention to accelerate budget execution, improve fund utilization efficiency, and ensure fund security [1] - Key areas of focus include supporting employment and foreign trade, fostering new growth drivers, enhancing public welfare, and mitigating risks in critical sectors [1] Group 2 - The strategy will prioritize strengthening domestic circulation and implementing flexible macro policies to address uncertainties while ensuring high-quality development [2] - The government aims to maintain policy continuity and stability while enhancing flexibility and predictability in economic management [2]

新华社记者申铖 受国务院委托，财政部部长蓝佛安10日向十四届全国人大常委会第十七次会议报告了今年以来预算执行 情况。根据报告，今年以来，财政政策更加积极、接续发力，预算执行和财政运行总体平稳。 新华社北京9月10日电 题：透过预算执行报告，看财政政策如何更加积极？ "总的看，今年以来预算执行情况总体平稳，为落实党中央、国务院决策部署提供了有力保障。"蓝佛安 说。 下一步财政政策还将如何发力？报告明确，将用好用足更加积极的财政政策。 "压实预算执行责任链条，将加快预算执行进度、提高资金使用效益和保障资金安全有机结合起来，推 动资金和政策尽快落地见效。"蓝佛安说，继续实施好提振消费专项行动，落实落细个人消费贷款和服 务业经营主体贷款贴息政策，激发养老、托育等服务消费潜力。积极发挥专项债券、超长期特别国债等 作用，加强财政与金融协同配合，将更多公共服务纳入投资支持范围，积极鼓励民间投资发展。 财政收入方面，报告显示，今年1至7月，全国一般公共预算收入135839亿元，同比增长0.1%。财政支 出方面，各级财政部门加强预算执行，保持必要支出强度，重点领域支出得到较好保障；1至7月，全国 一般公共预算支出160737亿 ...

Summary of Key Points from Conference Call Industry Overview - The conference call primarily discusses the **bond market** and its relationship with the **macro economy**. The bond market has grown significantly, from 20% to 120% of GDP over the past 20 years, indicating its increasing influence on the macro economy [2][3]. Core Insights and Arguments 1. **Reflexivity of Bond Market**: The bond market's reflexive impact on the macro economy is crucial for understanding economic conditions. Various factors such as economic fundamentals, liquidity, policy, supply-demand relationships, and market sentiment influence interest rate fluctuations [1][2]. 2. **Supply-Demand Dynamics**: The relationship between macroeconomic conditions and asset prices is characterized by supply-demand contradictions. Price fluctuations in assets like stocks and bonds reflect these contradictions [5][11]. 3. **Inflation and Interest Rate Predictions**: To determine whether the current macroeconomic environment is inflationary or deflationary, and to predict interest rate trends, analysts must examine output gaps and inflation gaps. The Taylor rule's effectiveness is limited in stagflation scenarios [6][11]. 4. **Long-term Relationship Between Interest Rates and GDP Growth**: There is a long-term intrinsic consistency between interest rates and nominal GDP growth. Historical data from countries like the US and Japan shows that rising nominal GDP growth correlates with increasing bond yields [7][8]. 5. **Capital Returns and Interest Rates**: Interest rates are fundamentally determined by capital returns, which are driven by economic growth and debt leverage. High debt leverage typically accompanies higher economic growth and capital returns [9][10]. 6. **Private Non-Financial Sector Debt Leverage**: The year-on-year growth rate of private non-financial sector debt leverage can measure debt leverage strength, which leads capital returns. Recent years have seen a slowdown in China's private sector debt leverage expansion, contributing to lower interest rates despite economic stimulus measures [10][17]. 7. **Predicting Future Bond Rates**: Future bond rates can be predicted by analyzing the contradiction between financing demand and funding supply, using metrics like the loan demand index minus M2 growth [11][12]. 8. **Real Estate Market's Impact**: The real estate sector plays a critical role in the economy, with its decline since 2021 leading to a significant reduction in financing demand, which in turn affects interest rates [16][17]. 9. **Government Debt and Interest Burden**: Increased government debt leverage raises interest burdens. China's interest payments on government bonds have doubled over the past 5-6 years, reflecting a growing concern about fiscal sustainability [28][30]. Other Important Insights - **Economic Cycles and Financing Demand**: China's economic cycles have seen shifts in financing demand, with different sectors becoming predominant over time. The recent trend shows a decline in both resident and corporate borrowing willingness [13][14]. - **Consumer Behavior and Economic Impact**: Consumer demand, which constitutes over 50% of GDP, is closely linked to employment and income levels. Recent trends indicate a decrease in consumer financing demand, contributing to lower interest rates [24][25]. - **Monetary Policy Adjustments**: The People's Bank of China has shifted its monetary policy focus from solely inflation to a more diversified approach, considering various economic indicators [33][34]. - **Future Economic Outlook**: The economic growth rate is expected to decline in the latter half of the year due to reduced external demand and internal consumption challenges, with inflation remaining weak [42][43][44]. This summary encapsulates the key points discussed in the conference call, providing a comprehensive overview of the bond market's dynamics and its implications for the macro economy.

Group 1 - The core viewpoint of the report emphasizes the government's commitment to supporting stable employment and foreign trade, alongside measures to assist enterprises in maintaining orders, shifting to domestic sales, expanding markets, and ensuring operational stability [1][2]. Group 2 - The report outlines seven key areas for future fiscal policy focus, including the effective use of proactive fiscal policies, support for stable employment and foreign trade, fostering new growth drivers, improving living standards, risk prevention in key sectors, enhancing fiscal governance, and adhering to stringent budget management [2]. - Specific measures to stabilize employment include enhancing public employment services, vocational training, and job retention initiatives, aimed at securing job positions and supporting key demographic groups in employment and entrepreneurship [2]. - The report also highlights the importance of improving social welfare, particularly for the elderly and children, through subsidies for elderly care services and policies for childcare and free preschool education [2]. - To mitigate financial risks, the report stresses the continuation of a comprehensive debt management policy, including the replacement of hidden debts while prohibiting the creation of new hidden debts and enforcing strict penalties for illegal borrowing practices [2].

Group 1: CPI Analysis - August CPI decreased by 0.4% year-on-year, driven mainly by high food price base effects[1] - Month-on-month CPI remained flat, lower than the 0.4% increase in the same period last year[1] - Food CPI rose by 0.5% month-on-month but fell by 4.3% year-on-year due to high base effects from last year[7] Group 2: PPI Insights - August PPI stabilized month-on-month, with a year-on-year decline of 2.9%, showing a significant narrowing of the decline[2] - Fuel and black metal prices turned from decline to increase month-on-month, positively impacting PPI[2] - PPI is expected to bottom out and recover, supported by potential fiscal and supply-side policies[2] Group 3: Core CPI Trends - Core CPI rose by 0.9% year-on-year in August, continuing its upward trend[7] - Month-on-month core CPI remained flat, indicating stability in core inflation[7] - Prices of durable goods and non-durable goods, such as household appliances and clothing, showed a recovery in year-on-year growth rates[7] Group 4: Risks and Considerations - Risks include declining real estate demand and increasing external uncertainties[3]