申万宏源宏观 . 申万宏源证券研究所 | 宏观研究部 作者： 赵 伟 申万宏源证券首席经济学家 贾东旭 高级宏观分析师 以下文章来源于申万宏源宏观 ，作者赵伟 贾东旭等 侯倩楠 宏观分析师 联系人： 侯倩楠 报告正文 3. 政策跟踪：推动各方面政策措施早出手、快出手 3.1 推动中国与东盟国家关系迈上新台阶 2025 年 4 月 15-17 日，习近平主席分别会见越南、马来西亚、柬埔寨三国领导人，推动中国与东盟国 家关系迈上新台阶。 习近平主席与越方会谈聚焦增进战略互信、建设安全屏障，推进"一带一路"与"两廊一 圈"对接及人工智能等新兴领域合作；同马来西亚会谈聚焦建立外交、国防" 2+2 "对话机制，在数字经济、 绿色经济等前沿领域深化产业链融合，推动"两国双园"提质升级并打造"陆海新通道"枢纽等；与柬埔寨会见 聚焦"工业发展走廊""鱼米走廊"及能源、交通等务实合作。 | 时间 | 事件 | 要点 | 主要内容 | | --- | --- | --- | --- | | | | 增进更高水平 | 双方要发挥好党际、立法机构、政治协商组织等渠道作用，深化治国理政经验交 | | | | 的战略互信 | 流,提高党 ...

新京报讯(记者肖隆平)4月22日，在新京报主办的主题为"直面关税战，锻造经济韧性——2025新京智库春季论 坛"上，十四届全国政协委员、国务院发展研究中心原副主任余斌表示，建设"民生中国"不仅是应对外部冲击，夯 实国内大循环基础的现实之需，更应成为"十五五"时期中国经济政策的核心主轴。 补民生短板，打通消费动能 "十五五"，从投资驱动到消费主导 "长期以来，我们过度依赖投资拉动经济，而忽视了消费对经济循环的决定性作用。"余斌表示，"十四五"末期的 现在，正是中国经济结构性转型的关键窗口期，只有将民生建设置于更高位置，才能实现经济的可持续发展。 余斌援引《政府工作报告》的内容指出，未来要加大在教育、医疗、住房、养老、托幼等领域的投入，并通过强 化宏观政策的"民生导向"，引导更多资金资源"投资于人、服务于民"。"经济发展的出发点和落脚点，归根结底是 为了增进人民福祉。" 在对"十五五"规划展望时，余斌表示，"民生中国"将成为重构发展逻辑的关键抓手。当服务消费成为主力、消费 升级推动产业升级时，政府角色也需从"基建主导者"转变为"民生服务者"。 "如果我们把所有资源仍然集中在传统基建和制造业，就业结构、消费结构、生 ...

贾东旭 高级宏观分析师 侯倩楠 宏观分析师 联系人： 侯倩楠 报告正文 3. 政策跟踪：推动各方面政策措施早出手、快出手 3.1 推动中国与东盟国家关系迈上新台阶 2025 年 4 月 15-17 日，习近平主席分别会见越南、马来西亚、柬埔寨三国领导人，推动中国与东盟国 家关系迈上新台阶。 习近平主席与越方会谈聚焦增进战略互信、建设安全屏障，推进"一带一路"与"两廊一 圈"对接及人工智能等新兴领域合作；同马来西亚会谈聚焦建立外交、国防" 2+2 "对话机制，在数字经济、 绿色经济等前沿领域深化产业链融合，推动"两国双园"提质升级并打造"陆海新通道"枢纽等；与柬埔寨会见 聚焦"工业发展走廊""鱼米走廊"及能源、交通等务实合作。 赵 伟 申万宏源证券首席经济学家 | 时间 | 事件 | 雙点 | 主要内容 | | --- | --- | --- | --- | | | 习近平主席会见越南 | 建设更加牢固 | 流,提高党对推进国家现代化的领导水平。 将两国外交、国防、公安"3+3"战略对话机制确定为部长级…坚决打击网赌电 诈等跨境犯罪,加强双边和多边特别是澜湄合作框架内执法司法合作 尽早实现双方标准轨铁路、高速公 ...

贾东旭 高级宏观分析师 侯倩楠 宏观分析师 联系人： 侯倩楠 报告正文 3. 政策跟踪：推动各方面政策措施早出手、快出手 3.1 推动中国与东盟国家关系迈上新台阶 2025 年 4 月 15-17 日，习近平主席分别会见越南、马来西亚、柬埔寨三国领导人，推动中国与东盟国 家关系迈上新台阶。 习近平主席与越方会谈聚焦增进战略互信、建设安全屏障，推进"一带一路"与"两廊一 圈"对接及人工智能等新兴领域合作；同马来西亚会谈聚焦建立外交、国防" 2+2 "对话机制，在数字经济、 绿色经济等前沿领域深化产业链融合，推动"两国双园"提质升级并打造"陆海新通道"枢纽等；与柬埔寨会见 聚焦"工业发展走廊""鱼米走廊"及能源、交通等务实合作。 赵 伟 申万宏源证券首席经济学家 | 时间 | 事件 | 雙点 | 主要内容 | | --- | --- | --- | --- | | | 习近平主席会见越南 | 建设更加牢固 | 流,提高党对推进国家现代化的领导水平。 将两国外交、国防、公安"3+3"战略对话机制确定为部长级…坚决打击网赌电 诈等跨境犯罪,加强双边和多边特别是澜湄合作框架内执法司法合作 尽早实现双方标准轨铁路、高速公 ...

1）中国出口到美国的企业，最大的基本都是外资或台资，以前有排名，前二十内资企业不到 30%，现在不公布了，苹果公司一年出口到美国400亿-500亿美元，算是中国产品，国内能 分到多少利润？这种只长骨头不长肉的GDP有屁用，日本从五十年代起步，30年时间工资赶 上发达国家水平，我们改开有四十多年了吧，打工人十二小时打螺丝只混个温饱。该改一改 发展模式了。 我以前在一家外贸公司工作过一段时间，这家公司规模在江苏应该排前三，见过自家产品在 国外的售价，和老外的采购聊天，他们说在中国采购1块钱的商品，回国后如果卖不到2.5 元，就会亏本。 欧美国家的零售业和国内不同，是高度垄断的行业，不要说外国人，就是本国人想开个小卖 部比登天还难，所以说中国人矿+跨国巨头的经济模式，该走到尽头了。 国内加50%关税没公布前，我就推测不会谈判。 现在，美国单独对付中国，有的人认为，中美会谈判，找到妥协点，中国吃个大亏忍过去， 但我与前几天的想法一样，中国任然不会谈判。 2）贸易战打击最大的不是中国，而是跨国公司，苹果就不说了，象百得公司，美国最大的工 具公司，全部产品委托国内企业生产，一块钱的产品，卖到美国至少2.5元，国内企业挣0 ...

1）中国出口到美国的企业，最大的基本都是外资或台资，以前有排名，前二十内资企业不到 30%，现在不公布了，苹果公司一年出口到美国400亿-500亿美元，算是中国产品，国内能 分到多少利润？这种只长骨头不长肉的GDP有屁用，日本从五十年代起步，30年时间工资赶 上发达国家水平，我们改开有四十多年了吧，打工人十二小时打螺丝只混个温饱。该改一改 发展模式了。 2）贸易战打击最大的不是中国，而是跨国公司，苹果就不说了，象百得公司，美国最大的工 具公司，全部产品委托国内企业生产，一块钱的产品，卖到美国至少2.5元，国内企业挣0.05 元，中国所有卖到美国、欧洲的产品，基本是这个比例关系。如果是零关税的话，跨国公司 有本事一分钱税都不交，所以特对全球加关税，肯定是内外交困没办法后的举动。 推论，国家不会再和美国就关税问题谈判，会下决心国内大循环。 lance77 看样子楼主一家都是体制内的，不用担心就业问题。 21年底中国灵活就业人数就超过2亿了，每年还有上千万的大学生就业。 sunway01 我以前在一家外贸公司工作过一段时间，这家公司规模在江苏应该排前三，见过自家产品在 国外的售价，和老外的采购聊天，他们说在中国采购 ...

Fiscal Performance - In Q1 2025, national general public budget revenue was CNY 60,189 billion, a year-on-year decrease of 1.1%[3] - National general public budget expenditure was CNY 72,815 billion, a year-on-year increase of 4.2%[3] - In March 2025, broad fiscal revenue decreased by 1.7% year-on-year, while broad fiscal expenditure increased by 10.1%[4] Budget Completion - Q1 2025 broad fiscal revenue budget completion was 24.6%, slightly above the five-year average of 24.1%[4] - Broad fiscal expenditure budget completion was 21.9%, slightly above the five-year average of 21.8%[4] Debt Financing - In March 2025, the broad fiscal deficit reached CNY -2.3 trillion, higher than the average of CNY -1.2 trillion from 2020 to 2024[4] - The general fiscal deficit was CNY -1.3 trillion, compared to the average of CNY -0.5 trillion during the same period[4] Special Bonds Issuance - New special bonds issuance is expected to accelerate, with CNY 9,748 billion planned for Q2, a 36.5% increase from Q1[5] - CNY 1.3 trillion of special government bonds will be issued starting April 24, 2025, completing by October 10, 2025[5] Policy Measures - The government emphasizes early and rapid implementation of policies during critical time windows to positively influence market expectations[6] - Recent meetings highlighted the need for enhanced consumer confidence and support for housing demand[6]

Core Insights - The report indicates that consumers are primarily allocating their surplus funds towards savings, children's education, travel, mortgage repayments, and healthcare, with savings being the top priority [1][4]. - Despite a slight recovery in consumer sentiment in Q1, overall consumption willingness remains weak, prompting discussions on where to focus efforts to stimulate consumption [1][4]. Consumer Spending Behavior - The survey, which included 5,000 consumers across various cities and rural areas, revealed that 48.8% of surplus funds are directed towards savings, followed by 45.5% for children's education, 33.1% for travel, 32.6% for mortgage repayments, and 29.3% for healthcare [4]. - A notable 10.4% of consumers reported having no surplus funds for additional spending [4]. - High-income consumers exhibit a stronger inclination towards saving compared to their lower-income counterparts [4]. Travel and Emotional Spending - There is a robust demand for travel, indicating a trend of consumption structure upgrading, as consumers seek to relieve stress amid uncertainties [4]. - Younger consumers are increasingly willing to spend on experiences that enhance their happiness and emotional well-being [4]. Factors Influencing Consumer Spending - Key factors that could lead to increased consumer spending include income growth (72.3%), stable employment (46.2%), lower prices (43.7%), improved social security (40.6%), and reduced mortgage pressure (32.7%) [5][6]. - Compared to the previous quarter, there has been a slight increase in the percentage of consumers citing favorable macroeconomic conditions and rising stock prices as motivators for spending [6]. Challenges to Consumer Spending - The report attributes the overall lack of consumer spending willingness to cautious expectations, which have led to a sustained high savings rate [7]. - Heavy burdens from children's education and mortgage repayments are also identified as constraints on other spending [7]. Recommendations for Stimulating Consumption - Experts suggest stabilizing consumer expectations through measures such as promoting stock market recovery, curbing the decline in the real estate market, and enhancing macroeconomic stimulus to boost domestic demand [8]. - Consumers have proposed various measures to enhance spending confidence, including improving social security, increasing macroeconomic policy support, and providing consumption vouchers [8]. Impact of External Factors - The report highlights the challenges faced by small and medium-sized enterprises (SMEs) due to external pressures, such as tariffs imposed by the U.S., which have led to reduced orders and financial difficulties [9]. - SMEs are encouraged to pivot towards domestic markets to mitigate risks associated with external market fluctuations [9].

Report Industry Investment Ratings No relevant content provided. Core Views - For Treasury bonds, expect increased volatility and remain cautious [6][7] - For stock indices, be optimistic about the long - term performance and wait for opportunities to go long [10][11] - For precious metals, the medium - to - long - term upward logic remains strong, and previous long positions can be held [12][13][14] - For rebar and hot - rolled coils, investors can look for short - selling opportunities on rebounds and participate with a light position [15][16] - For iron ore, investors can look for buying opportunities at low levels, and participate with a light position [17][18][19] - For coking coal and coke, investors can look for short - selling opportunities on rebounds and participate with a light position [20][21] - For ferroalloys, consider manganese silicon out - of - the - money call options at low levels and short - covering opportunities for silicon iron at the bottom, or consider out - of - the - money call options at low levels if there are large spot losses [22][23] - For crude oil, consider a long - biased operation on the main contract [24][25][26] - For fuel oil, consider a long - biased operation on the main contract [27][28][29] - For synthetic rubber, expect weak oscillations [30][31] - For natural rubber, expect weak oscillations [32][33] - For PVC, expect bottom oscillations [34][35][37] - For urea, expect short - term weakness [38][39] - For p - xylene (PX), expect low - level oscillations following the cost side, and operate with caution [40][41] - For PTA, expect bottom oscillations, and participate with caution [42] - For ethylene glycol, expect bottom oscillations, and participate with caution [43][44] - For staple fiber, expect bottom adjustments following the cost side, and participate with caution [45] - For bottle chips, expect low - level oscillations following the cost side, and pay attention to cost price changes [46][47] - For soda ash, expect short - term weakness [48] - For glass, expect a weak market sentiment [49] - For caustic soda, price fluctuations depend on supply - demand games, and beware of premature market movements [50][51] - For pulp, expect a weak and low - level repeated oscillation [52] - For lithium carbonate, expect a weak operation [53] - For copper, consider a long - biased operation on the main contract [54][55] - For tin, expect price oscillations, control risks in the short term, and wait for the release of risk sentiment [56] - For nickel, control risks in the short term, and wait for the macro sentiment to stabilize [57] - For industrial silicon and polysilicon, consider short - selling at high levels on rebounds [58][59][60] - For soybean oil and soybean meal, remain on the sidelines for soybean meal; for soybean oil, consider out - of - the - money call options at the bottom support range [61][62] - For palm oil, remain on the sidelines for now [63][64] - For rapeseed meal and rapeseed oil, consider the opportunity to widen the spread after the soybean - rapeseed spread narrows [65][66] - For cotton, wait to short sell the far - month contract at high prices after a rebound [67][68][69] - For sugar, remain on the sidelines [71][73][74] - For apples, consider going long at low prices after a pullback [76][77] - For live pigs, consider short - selling opportunities at high prices [78][79][80] - For eggs, wait for the release of the current market sentiment [81][82] - For corn, remain on the sidelines for now [83][84] - For logs, beware of a rapid decline if the reality is weaker than expected [85][86] Summary by Directory Treasury Bonds - The previous trading day saw a differentiated close of Treasury bond futures, with the 30 - year, 10 - year, 5 - year, and 2 - year main contracts having different price changes. The central bank conducted 250.5 billion yuan of 7 - day reverse repurchase operations, resulting in a net investment of 222 billion yuan [5] - The external environment is favorable for Treasury bond futures, but yields are relatively low. China's economy shows a stable recovery trend, and it is advisable to remain cautious [6] Stock Indices - The previous trading day saw slight oscillations in stock index futures, with different changes in the main contracts of various indices [8][9] - The first - quarter fiscal revenue decreased by 1.1% year - on - year, and expenditure increased by 4.2%. In March, total social power consumption increased by 4.8% year - on - year [9] - Although there are concerns about corporate profit growth and global recession, domestic asset valuations are low, and policies have hedging space. Be optimistic about the long - term performance of Chinese equity assets [10] Precious Metals - The previous trading day saw gold and silver main contracts with different price changes. The complex global trade and financial environment, potential monetary policy easing, and other factors are expected to drive up the price of gold [12] - Be optimistic about the long - term value of gold, and previous long positions can be held [13] Rebar and Hot - Rolled Coils - The previous trading day saw a slight correction in rebar and hot - rolled coil futures. The real - estate industry's downturn suppresses rebar prices, but the peak - season demand may provide short - term support. Hot - rolled coils may follow a similar trend. Steel prices are at a low valuation, and the downward space may be limited [15] Iron Ore - The previous trading day saw a slight correction in iron ore futures. The increase in iron ore demand and the decrease in imports and port inventory support the price. The valuation is relatively high among black - series products. Consider buying at low levels [17][18] Coking Coal and Coke - The previous trading day saw weak oscillations in coking coal and coke futures. The supply of coking coal is loose, and the transaction atmosphere has weakened. The shipment of coke has improved, but the possibility of further price increases is low. Consider short - selling on rebounds [20] Ferroalloys - The previous trading day saw slight declines in the main contracts of manganese silicon and silicon iron. The supply of manganese ore may be disturbed, and the demand for ferroalloys is weak while the supply is relatively high. Consider options opportunities based on different situations [22][23] Crude Oil - The previous trading day saw INE crude oil rise and then fall. Speculators increased their net long positions in US crude oil futures. The number of US oil and gas rigs decreased, and OPEC deepened its production - cut agreement. Consider a long - biased operation [24][25][26] Fuel Oil - The previous trading day saw fuel oil rise and then fall. Asian fuel oil demand is unlikely to increase sharply. The sales of marine fuel oil in the UAE's Fujairah Port recovered in March. Consider a long - biased operation as the market may be oscillating upward [27][28][29] Synthetic Rubber - The previous trading day saw a decline in the main contract of synthetic rubber. Supply pressure persists, demand improvement is limited, and it may maintain weak oscillations [30] Natural Rubber - The previous trading day saw different price changes in the main contracts of natural rubber and 20 - number rubber. Global supply is expected to increase, demand is affected by tariffs, and it may maintain weak oscillations [32] PVC - The previous trading day saw a decline in the main contract of PVC. Supply pressure eases marginally, demand recovers weakly, and it may oscillate at the bottom [34][35][37] Urea - The previous trading day saw an increase in the main contract of urea. In the short term, it may oscillate weakly. Agricultural demand is in a lull, and new production capacity is being released [38] P - Xylene (PX) - The previous trading day saw an increase in the PX2509 main contract. PX装置 maintenance and downstream PTA load reduction. It is expected to oscillate at a low level following the cost side [40][41] PTA - The previous trading day saw an increase in the PTA2509 main contract. Supply and demand fundamentals have few contradictions, and it may oscillate at the bottom [42] Ethylene Glycol - The previous trading day saw a decline in the main contract of ethylene glycol. Supply improves due to coal - based plant maintenance, but demand is weak. It is expected to oscillate at the bottom [43][44] Staple Fiber - The previous trading day saw a decline in the staple fiber 2506 main contract. Downstream demand is weak, and it may adjust at the bottom following the cost side [45] Bottle Chips - The previous trading day saw an increase in the bottle chips 2506 main contract. Raw material prices fluctuate, and it is expected to oscillate at a low level following the cost side [46][47] Soda Ash - The previous trading day saw a decline in the main 2509 contract of soda ash. Production and inventory are at high levels, and the market may remain weak in the short term [48] Glass - The previous trading day saw a significant decline in the main 2509 contract of glass. A production line changed its product type. Production lines are at a low level, and inventory changes little. The market sentiment is weak [49] Caustic Soda - The previous trading day saw a slight increase in the main 2505 contract of caustic soda. Production decreased last week, and demand has slightly improved. Price fluctuations depend on supply - demand games [50][51] Pulp - The previous trading day saw a decline in the main 2507 contract of pulp. Port inventory increased slightly, and downstream开工 rates varied. The market is expected to oscillate at a low level [52] Lithium Carbonate - The previous trading day saw a decline in the main contract of lithium carbonate. The trade tariff event affects demand, and supply remains high. It is expected to operate weakly [53] Copper - The previous trading day saw an upward oscillation in Shanghai copper. The price increased, and the spot market had limited supply. Consider a long - biased operation [54] Tin - The previous trading day saw an increase in tin prices. The Bisie tin mine may resume operation, and Indonesian mining costs have increased. Consumption data is good, and prices are expected to oscillate [56] Nickel - The previous trading day saw a decline in nickel prices. The US tariff event has a negative impact on the market. Supply is tightened, and cost support is strong, but demand may weaken in the off - season [57] Industrial Silicon and Polysilicon - The previous trading day saw a significant decline in the prices of industrial silicon and polysilicon. Supply and demand are imbalanced, and prices are expected to continue to bottom - out [58][59] Soybean Oil and Soybean Meal - The previous trading day saw declines in soybean meal and soybean oil main contracts. Brazilian soybean production is high, and domestic supply is abundant. Consider different strategies for soybean oil and soybean meal [61][62] Palm Oil - Malaysian palm oil had a slight decline. Domestic imports decreased, and inventory is at a low level. Remain on the sidelines for now [63][64] Rapeseed Meal and Rapeseed Oil - Canadian rapeseed exports decreased. China has imposed tariffs on Canadian products, and domestic inventories are at high levels. Consider the opportunity to widen the spread [65][66] Cotton - The previous trading day saw a weak oscillation in domestic cotton. US cotton export sales increased, and the planting rate is lower than in previous years. Textile exports are affected by tariffs, and domestic demand is weak. Consider short - selling the far - month contract at high prices [67][68][69] Sugar - The previous trading day saw a strong oscillation in domestic sugar. Brazilian sugar production increased, and Indian sugar production was lower than expected. Domestic inventory is neutral, and it is advisable to remain on the sidelines [71][73][74] Apples - The previous trading day saw apple futures rise and then fall. Cold - storage inventory decreased rapidly, and the market sales are good. Consider going long at low prices after a pullback [76][77] Live Pigs - The previous day saw a slight decline in the national average price of live pigs. Demand is weak, and the supply pressure is increasing. Consider short - selling opportunities at high prices [78][79][80] Eggs - The previous trading day saw an increase in the average price of eggs in the main production areas. Egg production capacity is increasing, and consider waiting for the release of market sentiment [81][82] Corn - The previous trading day saw a decline in the corn main contract. The sales of the current season are almost over, and port inventory is high. Supply pressure exists in the short term, and consumption is slightly increasing. Remain on the sidelines for now [83][84] Logs - The previous trading day saw a decline in the main 2507 contract of logs. A tropical cyclone may affect shipments. Inventory is relatively neutral, and beware of a rapid decline [85][86]

文 ｜ 杨帆 于翔 任柳蓉 联系人：陶然 为应对外部冲击，政策层近期高度重视"做大做强国内大循环"。消费方面，政策面临"短期纾 困"与"长效培育"的多重目标，在推动长期的供给侧政策同时，或可兼顾短期需求侧刺激，采取以 旧换新补贴扩容、提高工资水平、特定群体补贴、服务供给升级等政策组合提振内需。地产方面 防范房价过快上涨与居民对于房价悲观预期的矛盾亟待解决，建议通过加大城中村改造货币化安 置、进一步放松"三限"等方式拉动需求，推动房地产市场"止跌回稳"。基建方面，需在隐债追责压 力与扩大有效投资之间寻求新平衡，政策层面预计将更好落实"在发展中化债，在化债中发展"。制 造业方面，国内转型新质生产力拉动的新增产能与海外贸易摩擦带来的出口压力形成矛盾，政策或 通过规范地方招商引资、减少出口退税、推动新一轮产能格局优化等措施综合整治"内卷式"竞争 推动制造业高质量发展。 ▍ 为应对外部冲击，重申"做大做强国内大循环"。 构建以国内大循环为主体、国内国际双循环相互促进的新发展格局，是习近平总书记于2 0 2 0年4 月在中央财经委员会会议上首次提出的。在当前中美新一轮贸易冲突背景下，国内大循环更具重 大战略意义。近期，李 ...