Group 1 - The gold market experienced an upward trend on Thursday, influenced by a strong US dollar index and Trump's second wave of tax letters, closing with a bullish candlestick and fluctuating within a narrow range of $20 throughout the day [1] - The strong performance of the US dollar has somewhat mitigated the impact of changes in tariff policies, leading some investors to buy gold as a hedge against geopolitical risks [1] - The Federal Reserve's monetary policy direction remains a core focus for the global economy, with the current policy providing strong support for the dollar's strength, despite most officials leaning towards a rate cut this year [1] Group 2 - With the final execution date for tariffs extended to August 1, the market is experiencing a volatile trading pattern, with both upward and downward movements possible; however, the overall trend for gold remains bullish [3] - Technical analysis indicates that gold has shown signs of strengthening in the short term, with a recovery trend initiated after testing the 3310 level twice, and the 1-hour moving average beginning to turn upwards [3] - A suggested trading strategy is to buy on dips at 3313 with a stop loss at 3301 and a target range of 3335-3345, indicating a focus on the current spot gold market [4]

Group 1 - The market is experiencing a strengthening dollar index supported by the Federal Reserve's monetary policy, with most officials favoring interest rate cuts this year, although rates remain unchanged for now [2] - The extension of tariff implementation to August 1 has led to a generally positive market outlook, with expectations for negotiations [2] - The technical analysis indicates a consolidation pattern in gold, with successful trades noted at specific price points [2] Group 2 - U.S. crude oil inventories have significantly increased, offsetting seasonal demand, alongside expectations of increased production from OPEC+ [4] - Recent attacks in the Red Sea have not sustained market speculation, leading to a technical retreat in oil prices [4] - The prevailing supply-demand imbalance suggests a continuation of a bearish outlook for oil, with recommendations to maintain a short position on rebounds [4] Group 3 - For gold, a buying opportunity is suggested around 3322/4 with a target of 3340/50 [5] - For oil, a selling opportunity is indicated around 67.6 with a target of 66/65 [5]

宏观消息面： 1、商务部：已部署开展打击战略矿产走私出口专项行动。 2、当地时间 7 月 9 日，美国总统特朗普在社交媒体平台"真实社交"上表示，美国将对进口铜征收 50% 的关税，自 2025 年 8 月 1 日起生效。 3、中国汽车工业协会数据显示，1 至 6 月份，汽车市场延续良好态势，产销量均超过 1500 万辆，同比 均实现 10%以上较高增长。 文字早评 2025/07/11 星期五 宏观金融类 股指 4、北京：拓宽财产性收入渠道 鼓励上市公司合理提高分红率。 期指基差比例： IF 当月/下月/当季/隔季：-0.32%/-0.77%/-0.95%/-1.71%； IC 当月/下月/当季/隔季：-0.41%/-1.31%/-2.15%/-4.21%； IM 当月/下月/当季/隔季：-0.49%/-1.60%/-2.73%/-5.62%； IH 当月/下月/当季/隔季：-0.42%/-0.54%/-0.60%/-0.56%。 交易逻辑：海外方面，近期主要关注点在美国对各国征收关税带来的影响。国内方面，重点关注 7 月份 "中央政治局会议"预期。当前国债利率处于低位，股债收益比较高，淤积在金融系统的资金 ...

Group 1: Market Performance - The Shanghai gold futures (Au) rose 0.07% to 771.70 yuan/gram, and Shanghai silver futures (Ag) rose 1.45% to 9014.00 yuan/kilogram. COMEX gold rose 0.27% to 3334.70 dollars/ounce, and COMEX silver rose 1.27% to 37.78 dollars/ounce. The US 10-year Treasury yield was reported at 4.35%, and the US dollar index was at 97.55 [2] - The Au(T+D) closed at 769.22 yuan/gram, up 0.83% from the previous trading day. The Ag(T+D) closed at 8899.00 yuan/kilogram, up 0.55%. London gold closed at 3312.60 dollars/ounce, up 0.38%, and London silver closed at 36.81 dollars/ounce, up 0.60%. The SPDR gold ETF holdings were at 948.80 tons, up 0.15%, and the SLV silver ETF holdings were at 14889.93 tons, down 0.51% [4] Group 2: Fed Officials' Statements and Policy Expectations - Multiple Fed officials expressed different views on the monetary policy path. St. Louis Fed President Mousalem's speech was hawkish, while San Francisco Fed President Daly thought there might be two rate cuts this year in the fall. Potential next Fed Chair candidate Waller was dovish, suggesting a rate cut in the July meeting. President Trump pressured the Fed to cut rates quickly [2][3] - Given the US fiscal expansion and high interest - payments, the Fed is likely to keep rates unchanged in the July meeting with a more dovish tone and cut rates by 25 basis points in the September meeting [3] Group 3: Investment Opportunities and Price Ranges - In the context of the expected loosening of the Fed's monetary policy, attention should be paid to the long - position opportunities in silver. Gold may perform relatively weakly due to the gradual realization of the US loose - fiscal expectation. The reference operating range for the main contract of Shanghai gold is 760 - 801 yuan/gram, and for Shanghai silver is 8805 - 9600 yuan/kilogram [3] Group 4: Gold and Silver Data Details - For gold on July 10, 2025, COMEX gold's closing price was 3333.00 dollars/ounce (up 0.32%), volume was 14.84 million lots (down 4.77%), open interest was 43.77 million lots (up 0.62%), and inventory was 1144 tons (down 0.26%). SHFE gold's closing price was 773.30 yuan/gram (up 0.85%), volume was 26.56 million lots (down 39.51%), and open interest was 39.56 million lots (down 0.23%) [6] - For silver on July 10, 2025, COMEX silver's closing price was 37.63 dollars/ounce (up 2.79%), open interest was 16.36 million lots (down 6.33%), and inventory was 15413 tons (down 0.35%). SHFE silver's closing price was 8919.00 yuan/kilogram (up 0.22%), volume was 69.73 million lots (down 24.31%), and open interest was 87.47 million lots (down 0.73%) [6] Group 5: Price and Spread Analysis - On July 10, 2025, the SHFE - COMEX gold spread was 31.1035 yuan/gram (1.34 dollars/ounce), and the SGE - LBMA gold spread was - 0.19 yuan/gram (- 0.80 dollars/ounce). The SHFE - COMEX silver spread was 228.70 yuan/kilogram (0.99 dollars/ounce), and the SGE - LBMA silver spread was 361.25 yuan/kilogram (1.57 dollars/ounce) [47]

Group 1: Gold Price Dynamics - Gold prices showed a rebound after hitting a near two-week low of $3282.61 per ounce, closing at $3313.38 per ounce, indicating significant recovery momentum [1][3] - The increase in gold prices is driven by rising geopolitical risks, trade policy uncertainties, and U.S. fiscal expansion, leading to increased demand for gold as a safe-haven asset [3][4] - The U.S. dollar index remains near a two-week high, exerting short-term pressure on gold, but the decline in the 10-year U.S. Treasury yield to 4.34% partially offsets the impact of a stronger dollar [4][11] Group 2: U.S.-EU Trade Negotiations - The EU is accelerating trade negotiations with the U.S. to avoid tariff increases set by the Trump administration, focusing on reducing auto import tariffs and providing export credits for EU car manufacturers [5][6] - In-depth discussions on auto tariff rates and quotas have taken place, with proposals for providing tariff credits to manufacturers producing and exporting cars in the U.S., which could benefit companies like BMW and Mercedes [6] Group 3: Federal Reserve Policy and Inflation - The Federal Reserve's June meeting minutes indicate a cautious stance, with most policymakers focusing on potential inflation pressures from trade tariffs, maintaining the interest rate range at 4.25%-4.50% [8][9] - Market expectations for a rate cut in July are low, but there is an increasing probability of a first cut in September, with a cumulative cut of 50 basis points by year-end being likely [9] Group 4: U.S. Treasury Market Performance - The U.S. Treasury auction of $390 billion in 10-year notes saw a strong bid-to-cover ratio of 2.61, the highest since April, indicating reduced concerns about "selling U.S. assets" [10] - The decline in the 10-year Treasury yield to 4.34% reflects alleviated worries about fiscal outlook, creating a favorable environment for gold price rebound [11] Group 5: Market Sentiment and Future Outlook - Gold price fluctuations are influenced by trade negotiations, dollar movements, and Federal Reserve policies, with short-term pressures from a stronger dollar and Treasury yield volatility [12] - Investors are advised to monitor initial jobless claims data and Federal Reserve officials' speeches to gauge market sentiment changes [12]

Group 1 - The core narrative of the current foreign exchange market has shifted from trade war concerns to fundamental macroeconomic drivers, with the Federal Reserve's monetary policy at the center [1] - Market participants are closely examining the upcoming June FOMC meeting minutes to gauge the internal consensus on dovishness within the Federal Reserve [1][2] - If the minutes confirm a deeper dovish inclination, it would strengthen expectations for rate cuts in the summer, leading to downward pressure on the US dollar [2] Group 2 - The influence of tariff discussions from the Trump administration appears to be diminishing in the current foreign exchange market, with market participants interpreting these threats as negotiation tactics rather than a significant policy shift [2] - Tariffs may create asymmetric impacts in specific regions or asset classes, as seen with the recent surge in copper prices attributed to tariff expectations [2] - The EUR/USD currency pair is currently in a state of stagnation around 1.17, influenced by residual interest rate premiums and ongoing tariff uncertainties in the Eurozone [3] Group 3 - The foreign exchange market is characterized by a search for clarity, which is expected to come from the Federal Reserve's meeting minutes and upcoming CPI data [3] - The Japanese yen is perceived as vulnerable due to geopolitical and targeted tariff risks, while the Mexican peso may benefit indirectly from capital reallocation or safe-haven flows [4]

两位名叫"凯文"的共和党人，目前正成为角逐下任美联储主席的最大热门。 据素有"新美联储通讯社"之称的Nick Timiraos援引知情人士透露，这两位"凯文"分别是：现 任美国国家经济顾问委员会主任凯文·哈塞特和前美联储理事凯文·沃什。 其中，之前呼声还并不算高的哈塞特，如今正逐渐成为美联储下任主席的有力竞争者。他的崛 起甚至已经开始威胁到了凯文·沃什的地位。 沃什曾是该职位的早期热门人选，自从八年前特朗普未选择他而选择鲍威尔以来，沃什一直在 暗暗谋求此位。不过，一些与总统关系密切的人士担心，不属于特朗普核心圈子的沃什，可能 不会轻易支持降息。 Timiraos对此撰文形容称，瑞正在发生的事情似乎具有典型的特朗普风格：让两个雄心勃勃的 男人在一场高风险竞赛中争夺他的认可，这与特朗普曾在真人秀节目《学徒》中推崇的董事会 博弈如出一辙…… 注：红线代表哈塞特当选概率 哈塞特正异军突起？ 据知情人士透露，哈塞特在6月份已至少两次与特朗普会面讨论美联储职位的问题。这些讨论 标志着哈塞特的转变，他之前曾告诉盟友自己对此不感兴趣，但现在却表示如果被邀请，他会 接受这份工作。 现年63岁的哈塞特是一位书卷气十足的博士经济学 ...

Group 1 - The core viewpoint indicates that gold prices are under pressure due to a decrease in the probability of a Federal Reserve rate cut in July and a strong US dollar index, which is at a two-week high [1][3] - Concerns over trade tariffs have not effectively boosted safe-haven buying for gold, despite the announcement of increased tariffs by Trump starting August 1 [3] - The recent strong non-farm payroll data from the Federal Reserve has led to a decline in short-term rate cut expectations, further impacting gold prices negatively [3] Group 2 - Technical analysis shows that gold prices are currently in a downtrend, with key resistance levels identified at 3311 and 3328, while support levels are noted between 3275 and 3250 [4] - The market is advised to monitor the 3320 area closely, as prices below this level indicate a bearish outlook in the short term [4] - The analysis suggests that gold is experiencing a phase of oscillating declines, with a focus on potential rebounds at resistance levels before further downward movement [4]

Core Viewpoint - The international spot gold price continues to decline, driven by reduced safe-haven demand due to optimistic trade sentiments and a stronger US dollar, with significant market movements observed in recent trading sessions [1][3][4]. Group 1: Market Sentiment and Trade Developments - Optimism in trade negotiations has led to a decrease in safe-haven demand for gold, as the US has postponed tariff implementation on Japan, South Korea, and 14 other countries until August 1, allowing for potential negotiations [3]. - Geopolitical risks have also eased, with the shipping volume in the Strait of Hormuz returning to normal levels, further boosting global risk appetite and diminishing gold's appeal as a safe-haven asset [3]. Group 2: Currency and Economic Indicators - The US dollar index has strengthened, reaching 97.660, which directly pressures gold prices as it increases the opportunity cost of holding non-yielding assets like gold [4]. - Market expectations regarding the Federal Reserve's monetary policy have shifted, with concerns about delayed interest rate cuts growing, particularly after mixed employment data [6]. Group 3: Technical Analysis and Market Dynamics - Gold prices have breached the critical psychological level of $3,300, entering a technical support zone between $3,280 and $3,290, with potential for further declines if this support fails [7]. - The recent net reduction of 12 tons in global gold ETFs indicates that institutional investors are taking profits amid easing trade tensions, contributing to increased market selling pressure [7]. Group 4: Investor Behavior and Market Outlook - Investor sentiment is notably divided, with retail investors buying on dips while institutional investors are establishing short positions in the futures market, indicating a bearish outlook [9]. - The current gold market is at a critical juncture, with trade optimism and a strong dollar exerting short-term pressure, while central bank gold purchases and geopolitical risks provide long-term support [10].

Core Points - Kevin Hassett is emerging as a strong contender for the next Federal Reserve Chair, posing a threat to Kevin Warsh, a former Fed governor [1][3] - The competition for the Fed chairmanship reflects Trump's typical style, with ambitious figures vying for his favor, reminiscent of his reality show "The Apprentice" [2] - Trump's dissatisfaction with current Fed Chair Jerome Powell is driving this competition, as he seeks more aggressive interest rate cuts [3] Group 1: Candidates - Kevin Hassett, 63, has shifted his stance on the Fed, becoming one of Powell's harshest critics, accusing the Fed of making decisions based on partisan interests rather than economic data [4][5] - Kevin Warsh, 55, is attempting to adjust his previously hawkish stance on monetary policy, suggesting that the Fed could cut rates more effectively by reducing its holdings of $6.2 trillion in Treasury and MBS assets [6] - Scott Bessent is in a unique position, having been privately suggested by Trump as a potential Fed Chair, with discussions about him possibly holding both the Treasury and Fed Chair positions [7] Group 2: Economic Context - Analysts note that the government's push for tax cuts without corresponding spending cuts has exacerbated fiscal deficit pressures, leading Trump's team to blame high interest rates on the Fed [3] - Trump's recent strong statements indicate that the new Fed Chair must support interest rate cuts, a more direct demand than during Powell's appointment in 2018 [3] - Bessent's views on the Fed have evolved, as he has publicly criticized Powell for being overly cautious in rate cuts due to past misjudgments on inflation [8]