美国白宫新闻秘书卡罗琳·莱维特12日警告，受联邦政府"停摆"影响，10月美国消费者价格指数（CPI） 和就业数据统计报告"可能永远不会"发布，这将导致美国联邦储备委员会在决策时"两眼一抹黑"。 白宫新闻秘书：经济数据收集处理工作恐"永远受损" 莱维特12日在媒体简报会上说，即便联邦政府结束"停摆"，10月的CPI和就业数据统计报告也可能因数 据收集和处理工作"永远受损"而无法发布。莱维特同时称，民主党人"可能永久性地损害了联邦统计系 统"。 由于美国国会民主、共和两党在医保相关福利支出等方面存在分歧，国会参议院未能在9月底上一财年 结束前通过新的临时拨款法案，导致联邦政府维持正常运转的资金耗尽，于10月1日起"停摆"。 据悉，劳工统计局发布的经济数据报告关乎全球的投资决策、美联储货币政策等一系列重要经济政策制 定。业内人士数周来持续警告，在美国金融市场和经济政策制定者亟需"实时就业市场信息和经济图 景"之际，久拖不决的"停摆"僵局会对政府统计机构造成破坏。即便劳工统计局事后"补录"数据，仍会 因受访者记忆偏差而得到有缺陷的数据。 有消息称，美联储领导层定于12月第二周举行货币政策会议，如果确如白宫预料，10月 ...

美国最高法院将于1月21日就特朗普是否有权解雇美联储理事丽莎·库克进行口头辩论。特朗普指控库克 多年前在抵押贷款文件上作假陈述，但她未受任何指控。 分析人士认为，特朗普此举意在安插支持大幅降息的鸽派理事，削弱美联储独立性。奥康奈尔表示，若 裁决有利于总统，将重创美联储公信力，利好黄金并可能压低美元。 尽管口头辩论即将举行，但最终判决不会很快出台，库克短期内将继续留任。目前美联储虽已降息，但 鲍威尔强调12月进一步行动并非必然，市场预计降息概率为65%。 摘要周四(11月13日)欧盘时段，伦敦金目前交投于4223一线上方，截至发稿，伦敦金暂报4231.65美元/ 盎司，上涨0.87%，最高触及4233.94美元/盎司，最低下探4179.49美元/盎司。目前来看，伦敦金短线偏 向上涨走势。 周四(11月13日)欧盘时段，伦敦金目前交投于4223一线上方，截至发稿，伦敦金暂报4231.65美元/盎 司，上涨0.87%，最高触及4233.94美元/盎司，最低下探4179.49美元/盎司。目前来看，伦敦金短线偏向 上涨走势。 【要闻速递】 美联储独立性受威胁的担忧，已推动金价创历史新高。StoneX分析师奥康奈尔认为， ...

Group 1 - The White House warns that the government shutdown may prevent the release of October's Consumer Price Index (CPI) and employment data, leaving the Federal Reserve "in the dark" for decision-making [1][2] - The Labor Statistics Bureau's data collection and reporting functions are significantly impacted during the government shutdown, with the September employment report completed but delayed for release until after the shutdown [2] - The ongoing budget negotiations between the Democratic and Republican parties may lead to future government shutdowns, further complicating data availability for economic decision-making [1][2] Group 2 - To address the data gap caused by the shutdown, Automatic Data Processing (ADP) has introduced weekly employment data; however, industry experts caution that private sector data cannot replace comprehensive government data [3]

（原标题："大鹰派"意外宣布提前退休，美联储货币政策再添疑云） 南方财经 21世纪经济报道记者吴斌 在特朗普政府谋求扩大对美联储人事影响力之际，当地时间11月12日，亚特兰大联储主席博斯蒂克意外 宣布将于2026年2月28日任期届满时退休，现年59岁的博斯蒂克距离美联储强制退休年龄还有五年多， 他本可以再连任一届。 与此同时，亚特兰大联储董事会已启动遴选程序，预计将在明年2月底前敲定继任者。 需要注意的是，博斯蒂克是"鹰派"官员的代表。他表示，在看到"明确证据"显示通胀正朝美联储2%的 目标回落前，他倾向于维持利率在当前水平。在评估美联储"双重使命"所面临的风险时，他认为"更明 确且更紧迫的风险仍然在于物价稳定"。 随着"大鹰派"意外提前退休，美联储货币政策不确定性愈发浓厚。 博斯蒂克主动回避了一场可能的连任争议。白宫正寻求重塑美联储决策层，美联储理事丽莎·库克正遭 遇罢免危机，明年美联储主席也将换人。 根据现行制度，美国总统并不直接提名12家地区联储主席人选，但相关任命需经美联储理事会批准。所 有12位地区联储主席都需在五年任期结束后重新寻求连任，这一过程通常低调且例行化。但如果特朗普 政府试图在人事上施加 ...

格隆汇11月13日｜美联储柯林斯周三表示，由于担心通胀高企，她认为近期进一步放松货币政策的门 槛"相对较高"。此前柯林斯投票支持美联储今年两次降息。III Capital Management的首席经济学家 Karim Basta指出，柯林斯 "从未表示过异议，一直与委员会核心立场保持一致，因此这一表态意义重 大。下一次行动可能更发生在明年1月而非12月，因为这能给他们更多时间观察数据。" 【免责声明】本文仅代表作者本人观点，与和讯网无关。和讯网站对文中陈述、观点判断保持中立，不 对所包含内容的准确性、可靠性或完整性提供任何明示或暗示的保证。请读者仅作参考，并请自行承担 全部责任。邮箱：news_center@staff.hexun.com ...

新华财经北京11月13日电（吴郑思）11月12日，贵金属价格再度大幅飙升。其中银价单日大涨超4%， 盘中高点逼近历史新高。 在市场分析人士看来，随着美联储宽松的货币政策预计将继续下去，贵金属的实物买盘需求保持稳定， 黄金和白银的基本面仍然强劲。"除非发生任何重大变化，否则这两种金属未来几周内都可能走 高。"Solomon Global市场分析师表示。 纽约商品交易所黄金期货市场交投最活跃的2025年12月黄金期价当日上涨68.2美元，收于每盎司4201.4 美元，涨幅为1.65%。 当天12月交割的白银期货价格上涨215.5美分，收于每盎司53.230美元，涨幅为4.22%。盘中银价一度触 及53.625美元，距离此前创下的53.765美元高点仅一步之遥。 在此背景下，指标10年期美债收益率跌至11月5日以来最低水平，则进一步强化了12日当天贵金属的涨 势。 另外，美国亚特兰大联储主席博斯蒂克12日突然宣布，将于2026年2月28日任期届满时退休，届时他距 美联储强制退休年龄尚有五年有余。由于博斯蒂克在货币政策上的立场倾向"鹰派"，此举也增强了市场 对美联储加速鸽派转向的猜测。 正是在上述基本面逻辑支持下，即 ...

Group 1 - The dollar index (DXY) has slightly risen to around 99.55 during the Asian trading session, primarily driven by the easing of U.S. government shutdown risks [2] - Market sentiment has improved as investors anticipate the passage of government funding legislation, leading to a decrease in risk aversion and a mild recovery in the dollar against major currencies [2] - The fluctuations in the dollar index are influenced by multiple factors, including U.S. macroeconomic data, fiscal policy developments, and Federal Reserve monetary policy expectations [2] Group 2 - Recent economic data has shown weakness, putting pressure on growth momentum, with U.S. consumer confidence dropping to a three-and-a-half-year low in early November [3] - The labor market is also showing signs of cooling, with private sector employment decreasing by an average of approximately 11,000 jobs per week over the four weeks ending October 25, indicating declining confidence in hiring [3] - Market focus is on upcoming speeches from Federal Reserve officials, which may provide signals regarding future interest rate directions, influencing the dollar's short-term volatility [3] Group 3 - Some forex strategists suggest that the easing of government shutdown risks is more of a short-term sentiment driver, while the medium-term outlook for the dollar will depend on actual economic data performance [4] - Key indicators such as inflation pressure, employment changes, and manufacturing activity will be crucial for assessing the Federal Reserve's future policy [4] - International factors, including the relatively loose monetary policies in the Eurozone and Japan, provide some support for the dollar, but a continued slowdown in U.S. economic growth could diminish the attractiveness of U.S. Treasury yields, weakening the dollar's interest rate advantage [4]

Group 1 - The latest ADP Research report indicates that U.S. private companies are cutting an average of approximately 11,250 jobs per week as of October 25, signaling potential economic slowdown [1] - Following the release of the ADP data, the U.S. dollar index fell to a low of 99.29, while gold prices surged to around $4,147 per ounce [1] - The U.S. Senate passed a compromise plan to end the longest government shutdown in history, which had disrupted food assistance for millions and affected federal employees and air traffic [1] Group 2 - Analysts view the end of the government shutdown as a "calm before the data storm," anticipating that if labor market weakness persists, the Federal Reserve's monetary policy may shift from "cautious observation" to "conditional easing" [2] - Gold is expected to benefit from both rate cut expectations and safe-haven demand in the coming weeks, with a potential price target of $4,700 per ounce if political and financial risks increase significantly [2] Group 3 - Technical analysis of gold shows a bullish outlook, but the upward trend is currently stagnant, forming a doji pattern indicating a balance of buying and selling pressure [3] - The Relative Strength Index (RSI) suggests that gold prices may have further upside potential, with resistance levels at $4,160 and $4,200 per ounce, while a drop below $4,000 could lead to further declines [3] Group 4 - The daily chart for gold (XAUUSD) indicates a bullish bias with resistance levels at 4143, 4151, and 4171, and support levels at 4124, 4116, and 4106 [4] Group 5 - The daily chart for the Euro against the U.S. dollar (EURUSD) shows a bearish trend with resistance levels at 1.1594, 1.1622, and 1.1638, and support levels at 1.1566, 1.1558, and 1.1557 [5]

Group 1 - The Indian Rupee remains stable against the US Dollar, fluctuating around 88.85, with market activity being relatively subdued as investors await progress in US-India trade negotiations [1] - US and Indian negotiators have expressed optimism, indicating that discussions are nearing completion, although the lack of a formal agreement keeps market sentiment cautious [1] - Foreign institutional investors have shown reduced enthusiasm for the Indian stock market, with net sales of approximately 41.14 billion Rupees, reflecting short-term confidence issues [1] Group 2 - The US Dollar Index is stable around 99.65, with limited overall volatility following the Senate's approval of a temporary funding bill, which alleviates some market uncertainty [2] - The market anticipates the release of delayed economic data as US government operations resume, which may lead to significant fluctuations in the Dollar [2] - There is a 62.4% probability that the Federal Reserve will lower interest rates in December, indicating a general expectation for a more accommodative monetary policy [2] Group 3 - From a technical analysis perspective, the USD/INR exchange rate is currently above the short-term moving average, with key indicators suggesting a potential breakout from the recent trading range [4] - Important resistance is noted at the historical high of 89.12, while downward support is focused on the August low of 87.07 [4]

Core Viewpoint - The recent fluctuations in the gold market have been intense, characterized by rapid changes in price and sentiment, leading to challenges for investors, particularly newcomers [1] Market Dynamics - Gold prices surged by 2.8% on Monday, closing at $4,111.39 per ounce, marking the highest closing level in over two weeks [3] - Weak U.S. economic data has shifted market expectations towards a dovish stance from the Federal Reserve, with a 64% probability of a rate cut in December and 77% by January [3] Price Forecast - Analysts predict that gold prices could reach the range of $4,200 to $4,300 per ounce by the end of the year, with a reasonable target of $5,000 in the first quarter of next year [4] Technical Analysis - Gold has broken through the key resistance level of $4,080, indicating a potential return to a bullish trend, but caution is advised due to possible cooling of market sentiment after the government shutdown ends [5][7] - Key price levels to watch include the resistance zone of $4,150 to $4,180 and support around $4,080 [7] Trading Strategy - Investors are advised to adopt a cautious approach in the current volatile market, focusing on risk management and avoiding emotional trading decisions [8] - Specific trading strategies include shorting lightly if prices test the $4,140 to $4,150 range, and considering long positions if prices pull back to around $4,080 [9]