Core Viewpoint - The article discusses the ongoing trade tensions between the US and China, highlighting the impact of high tariffs on consumer goods and the potential for Japanese companies to explore opportunities in the US market while mitigating risks by diversifying their supply chains [1][4]. Summary by Sections US-China Trade Relations - Despite recent agreements to lower tariffs, the current rates remain significantly higher than before the Trump administration, with the US imposing tariffs as high as 145% on Chinese goods, temporarily reduced to 30% under a 90-day agreement [2][4]. - The actual tariff rate for the US on Chinese goods is approximately 51.3%, while China's effective tariff rate on US goods is around 37.5%, indicating a mutual escalation of tariffs that negatively impacts both economies [4][5]. Impact on the US Economy - The high tariffs have led to shortages of consumer goods in the US, contributing to rising prices and empty shelves, while US exports have decreased significantly, with a reported 30% drop in export volumes at the Port of Los Angeles [5][6]. - The temporary nature of the tariff suspension creates uncertainty for businesses, particularly small and medium enterprises, which struggle to plan for the future amid fluctuating trade policies [5][6]. Japan's Trade Dynamics - Japan's trade has been affected by global economic cycles, with exports experiencing fluctuations due to the pandemic and geopolitical tensions, leading to a trade deficit in recent months [9][10]. - Japan's export structure is heavily reliant on high-value products such as automobiles and semiconductors, while its imports are primarily raw materials and energy, making it vulnerable to global price changes [9][10]. Japan-US Trade Negotiations - The US has imposed a 10% base tariff on all Japanese goods, with specific tariffs of 25% on automobiles and parts, which are critical to Japan's economy [14][15]. - Japan is actively seeking the removal of these tariffs, emphasizing the importance of the automotive sector in its export economy, which constituted 28.3% of total exports to the US in 2024 [14][15]. Recent Trends and Challenges - Japan's exports to the US have seen a decline, with a 1.8% drop reported in April 2025, marking the first decrease in four months, primarily driven by reduced automobile exports [17]. - The strengthening of the yen and the depreciation of the dollar have further complicated Japan's export competitiveness, contributing to the trade imbalance [17][12].

特朗普的算盘看似精明，用关税保护就业，用油价压制通胀，用军事实力吓唬盟友。实则埋下更多雷。 为什么原油价格下降，能缓解美国的通胀危机？因为美国CPI篮子中能源类商品（如汽油、电力）权重约为7%，油价每下跌10美元，将直接降低能源分项价 格。例如，布伦特原油从80美元跌至70美元时，汽油价格可能下降10%-15%，直接拉动CPI下降约0.3个百分点。叠加物流、工业用电等间接成本下降，整体 通胀可被压低0.5%。 短期看，美国经济像打了止疼药，勉强维持；长期看，关税撕裂全球供应链推高成本，中东随时可能再爆冲突，而美元霸权松动带来的危机远超想象。 正如美国前财长耶伦所说："我们正用19世纪的工具应对21世纪的挑战。"当保护主义的围墙越筑越高，困在墙内的或许不是别人，正是美国自己。 特朗普还是高估了美国，贸然在全球发起关税战。表面上是为了保护美国企业，结果却像回旋镖一样扎回了自己人身上。你看纽约那个做男士护理品的小老 板埃斯纳尔，从中国进了3000美元的货，关税账单居然高达4600美元，比他进货的钱还多一半！逼得他要么涨价吓跑顾客，要么裁员让员工喝西北风。 NTS 2 还有此前媒体爆出的西雅图港口，以前是集装箱船排着 ...

Group 1: Event Background - Since 2025, the global trade landscape has undergone profound changes, with tariff wars and geopolitical factors significantly impacting Chinese companies' "going out" strategy [1] - In the context of overseas mergers and acquisitions, issues such as policy compliance, financing costs, and transaction structures have become core topics for cross-border M&A [1] - Despite the challenges, opportunities remain in cross-border M&A projects that possess industrial synergy, technological complementarity, and market expansion potential [1] - The London Stock Exchange Group (LSEG) will hold an offline seminar in Beijing to discuss the challenges and potential opportunities faced by Chinese companies in M&A processes in 2025 [1] Group 2: Event Information - The seminar is scheduled for July 10, 2025, from 15:00 to 17:00 at the LSEG Beijing office [2] - The agenda includes a review of the Chinese M&A market in the first half of the year, discussions on capital sensing amid global tariff conflicts, and new opportunities for listed companies in cross-border M&A [2] Group 3: Key Speakers - Liu Chengwei, a partner at Global Law Firm, specializes in M&A restructuring, private equity investment, and capital markets, and has authored a popular book on acquisition solutions [3] - Feng Kai, a senior investment banking data manager at LSEG, has 16 years of experience in transaction data and is responsible for M&A data in mainland China and Taiwan [4] - Ling Yufeng, a senior client learning manager at LSEG Academy, has nearly 20 years of experience providing financial information solutions training and consulting [6] - Xu Chang, the sales head for data business in China at LSEG, has been with Reuters since 2007 and focuses on data solutions for asset management and investment banking clients in mainland China [7]

一年一度的私募界盛会——"金长江"奖颁奖典礼即将开幕！ 6月26日（周四），由证券时报主办、长江证券协办的"第十届中国金长江私募基金发展高峰论坛"将在武汉正 式举行。2015年至2025年，金长江走过了十年星光，始终以专业为炬、以公正为尺，丈量中国私募基金行业的 奔腾浪潮。 本届论坛可谓大咖云集。复旦大学经济学院院长张军、基石资本董事长张维、东方港湾董事长但斌、明汯投资 创始人裘慧明、中欧瑞博董事长吴伟志、银叶投资首席投资官许巳阳、茂源量化创始人郭学文、景林资产合伙 人田峰、高毅资产合伙人韩海峰、凯丰投资董事长吴星等数十位重量级嘉宾出席。 自"9·24"行情以来，受一系列重磅政策的刺激，大量长期资金进场。2025年开年，DeepSeek横空出世，一举扭 转了中国AI落后的悲观预期；4月初，关税战一度震动全球市场，仅40天后峰回路转，中国资产重受青睐，市 场信心再度增强。 在这样的背景下，A股市场情绪有所升温，两市日均成交额在1.2万亿元上方，沪指在3400点附近蓄势待发，私 募基金有望迎来一轮赚钱机遇。 为了让更多人能够聆听中国私募基金行业领袖的真知灼见，本届论坛主办方特别安排了线上直播，参与直播的 平台包括 ...

Report Core Information Report Industry Investment Rating - Not mentioned in the report Report Core View - The report provides a weekly preview of hot topics, including important events and data releases that may impact the futures market, and analyzes the potential effects of these events on different types of futures prices [2][3] Summary by Related Catalogs This Week's Key Focus - From June 24th to 27th, the 16th Session of the 14th National People's Congress Standing Committee will be held in Beijing [2] - On June 24th at 22:00, Federal Reserve Chairman Powell will testify on the semi - annual monetary policy report before the House Financial Services Committee [2] - On June 26th at 20:30, the US Department of Commerce will release the final value of Q1 2025 GDP [2] - On June 27th at 09:30, the National Bureau of Statistics will announce the industrial enterprise profits for May [2] - On June 28th at 20:30, the US Department of Commerce will release the May PCE price index [2] This Week's Hot Topic Preview June 23rd - S&P Global will release the preliminary value of the Eurozone's June SPGI manufacturing PMI at 16:00, with an expected value of 49.8 and a previous value of 49.4. A slightly higher value may slightly boost non - ferrous metals, crude oil and related commodity futures prices but slightly suppress gold and silver futures prices [3] - S&P Global will release the preliminary value of the US June SPGI manufacturing PMI at 21:45, with an expected value of 51.2 and a previous value of 52. A slightly lower value may slightly suppress non - ferrous metals, crude oil and related commodity futures prices but slightly boost gold and silver futures prices [4] - The National Association of Realtors will release US May existing - home sales at 22:00. The expected annualized total is 3.97 million units (previous 4 million), and the expected monthly rate is - 1.3% (previous - 0.5%). Lower sales may suppress non - ferrous metals futures prices but boost gold and silver futures prices [5] June 24th - The National Bureau of Statistics will release the market prices of important production materials in the circulation field in mid - June at 9:30, covering 9 categories and 50 products [8] - The 16th Session of the 14th National People's Congress Standing Committee will be held from June 24th to 27th, with multiple draft laws on the agenda [9] - IFO will release Germany's June IFO business climate index at 16:00, with an expected value of 88.3 and a previous value of 87.5 [10] - Federal Reserve Chairman Powell will testify on the semi - annual monetary policy report before the House Financial Services Committee at 22:00 [11] - The Conference Board will release the US June consumer confidence index at 22:00, with an expected value of 99.8 and a previous value of 98. A higher value may boost non - ferrous metals, crude oil and related futures prices but suppress gold and silver futures prices [12] - The 16th Annual Meeting of the New Champions (Summer Davos Forum) will be held from June 24th to 26th in Tianjin, with the theme of "Entrepreneurship in the New Era" [13] - The NATO Summit will be held from June 24th to 25th in The Hague, and Trump will attend [14] June 25th - Federal Reserve Chairman Powell will testify on the semi - annual monetary policy report before the Senate Committee at 22:00 [15] - The US Department of Commerce will release US May new - home sales at 22:00. The expected seasonally - adjusted annualized total is 692,000 units (previous 743,000), and the expected monthly rate is - 6.5% (previous 10.9%). Higher sales may boost non - ferrous metals futures prices but suppress gold and silver futures prices [16] - EIA will release the change in US EIA crude oil inventories for the week ending June 20th at 22:30. A continued significant decline may boost crude oil and related commodity futures [17] June 26th - The US Department of Labor will release the initial jobless claims for the week ending June 21st at 20:30, with an expected value of 245,000 (previous 245,000) [18] - The US Department of Commerce will release the final value of Q1 2025 GDP at 20:30. The expected annualized quarterly rate of real GDP is - 0.2% [19] - The US Department of Commerce will release the preliminary value of the May durable goods orders at 20:30, with an expected monthly rate of 8.5% (previous - 6.3%). A significantly higher value may boost non - ferrous metals futures but suppress gold and silver futures [20] - The National Association of Realtors will release the US May seasonally - adjusted pending home sales index at 22:00, with an expected monthly rate of 0% (previous - 6.3%) [21] June 27th - The National Bureau of Statistics will announce China's May industrial enterprise profits at 09:30. The cumulative year - on - year growth from January to April was 1.4%, and in April it was 3% [22] - Eurostat will release the Eurozone's June economic sentiment index and industrial sentiment index at 17:00. The expected economic sentiment index is 95.3 (previous 94.8), and the expected industrial sentiment index is - 9.8 (previous - 10.3) [24] June 28th - The US Department of Commerce will release the May PCE price index at 20:30. The expected annual rate of the PCE price index is 2.3% (previous 2.1%), and the expected annual rate of the core PCE price index is 2.6% (previous 2.5%). Slightly higher values may delay the expected start of Fed rate cuts from September to November or December [25] - The US Department of Commerce will release May consumer spending at 20:30. The expected monthly rate is 0.1% (previous 0.2%). A slightly lower value may slightly suppress non - ferrous metals, crude oil and related commodity futures prices but slightly boost gold and silver futures prices [26]

Summary of Key Points from Conference Call Records Industry or Company Involved - The discussion primarily revolves around the U.S. stock market (美股), U.S. Treasury bonds (美债), and the U.S. dollar (美元) Core Insights and Arguments 1. **Recent Stock Market Trends**: The U.S. stock market has rebounded recently, driven by retail investor sentiment and capital, particularly in small-cap tech stocks, while institutional investors remain cautious due to concerns over AI technology slowdown, wealth disparity, and fiscal issues [1][3][4] 2. **Foreign vs. Domestic Investor Sentiment**: Foreign investors are more cautious than U.S. investors, as they face currency risk in addition to stock performance and valuation risks. U.S. investors focus more on asset class rotation and are less concerned about currency fluctuations [5][6] 3. **Short-term vs. Long-term Pricing Mechanisms of U.S. Treasuries**: Short-term pricing reflects recession and rate cut expectations, while long-term pricing is influenced by concerns over fiscal sustainability and the impact of trade wars on dollar credibility. The yield curve has steepened, indicating differing market expectations for economic conditions over time [7][9] 4. **Economic Data Impact**: Recent mixed economic data suggests a weakening labor market and declining consumer sentiment, which may lead to reduced economic activity and affect short-term pricing of U.S. Treasuries [8][10] 5. **Tariff Wars and Their Effects**: The ongoing tariff wars have led to increased long-term premiums on U.S. Treasuries due to concerns over fiscal sustainability and dollar credibility. However, these tariff threats are expected to diminish around August [9][12] 6. **Federal Reserve Policy Outlook**: The Federal Reserve may consider rate cuts in response to signs of economic weakening, with expectations of two or more cuts in the second half of the year [10][11] 7. **Long-term Challenges for the U.S. Economy**: The U.S. economy faces challenges such as a weak labor market, declining consumer willingness to spend, and potential recession risks, compounded by trade disputes and tariff threats [11][12] 8. **Predictions for the Dollar**: There is a prevailing market expectation that the dollar will enter a long-term weakening cycle, potentially dropping to around 70, reflecting skepticism about the current administration's ability to address fiscal sustainability [17][25] 9. **Impact of Trump's Policies**: Trump's policies have raised concerns about the long-term sustainability of U.S. debt and the dollar's value, with market sentiment leaning towards a bearish outlook on his reforms [13][25] 10. **Emerging Trends in Currency**: The trend of de-dollarization is accelerating, particularly since early 2025, as the dollar is increasingly used as a bargaining chip in trade negotiations [14][15][28] Other Important but Possibly Overlooked Content 1. **Behavioral Differences Between Retail and Institutional Investors**: Retail investors are engaging in short-term speculative trading, while institutional investors are more focused on long-term issues and risk management [6][22] 2. **Role of Stablecoins**: Stablecoins are gaining traction as a digital currency alternative, but they do not fundamentally resolve underlying issues related to U.S. debt and fiscal sustainability [16][19] 3. **Gold as an Alternative Asset**: Gold is viewed as a potential beneficiary of the dollar's weakening, although its long-term prospects remain uncertain due to various economic factors [26][27] 4. **Internationalization of the Renminbi**: The process of renminbi internationalization is accelerating, with expectations of appreciation due to China's growing economic significance [28] This summary encapsulates the key points discussed in the conference call records, providing insights into the current state and future outlook of the U.S. stock market, Treasury bonds, and the dollar.

从国外商业公司公布的卫星照片来看，美国空军投射的GBU-57钻地炸弹似乎有偏离目标的迹象，同时 由于美国之前就有调兵遣将，为此伊朗已经意识到美国很有可能动手，因此也就对于核设施进行了调 整，伊朗已经宣布将核材料进行了转移，为此美国对于伊朗的打击，很有可能是打了个寂寞。实际上从 伊朗还没有报复美军基地来看，伊朗似乎也是试图降低紧张局势，但是伊朗还是对于以色列发动了弹道 导弹的攻击，从而显示伊朗的强硬立场。 实际上美国在发动关税战上的失败，也已经冲击了美国国内的基本盘，美国在渲染自己的胜利的时候， 给美国民众带来的是物价上涨的现实问题，因此美国国内已经有了很大的反弹。美国总统在竞选的时候 有许多的承诺，随着时间的推移，却没有兑现承诺，显然对于美国共和党政府来说是非常不利的，烽火 前站分析认为，在以色列空袭伊朗的时候，美国已经认为有了机会，为此颇有拿伊朗转移视线的节奏。 根据美国发布的信息显示，美国空军在6月22日动用B-2A隐身战略核轰，对于伊朗的三座核设施发动了 攻击。 美国在4月2日宣布对于全球发动关税战，不过从美国的政策和动作来看，实际上美国的关税战已经是让 全世界看到了美国心虚的一面。面对关税战的反制，美 ...

Group 1 - The market risk appetite remains challenged due to various uncertainties, with significant net outflows from US equity funds reaching a new high since March [1] - The Federal Reserve maintains its cautious stance, keeping the federal funds rate at 4.25%-4.50% while adjusting economic forecasts, indicating uncertainty in growth and inflation [2][3] - The retail sales data showed a 0.9% month-on-month decline in May, which was below expectations, while core retail sales increased by 0.4%, reflecting steady economic momentum [2] Group 2 - The US stock market experienced a narrow range of movements, with the healthcare sector declining by 2.7% and the energy sector rising by 1.1% due to recovering oil prices [5] - There was a significant outflow of $18.43 billion from US equities, the highest since March, driven by geopolitical factors and uncertainties surrounding US tariffs [6] - Market sentiment has shifted to a wait-and-see approach, with the bullish momentum turning into sideways consolidation, although the probability of a significant market drop remains low unless geopolitical tensions escalate [7]

Core Viewpoint - The U.S. Treasury market is expected to face significant turmoil, with the Federal Reserve likely to intervene only when panic sets in, indicating a potential crisis rather than a minor disturbance [1][2]. Group 1: Market Dynamics - Jamie Dimon, CEO of JPMorgan, anticipates a major deleveraging moment in the U.S. Treasury market, suggesting that the status of U.S. Treasuries as a safe-haven asset is being undermined [2][4]. - The ongoing trade war initiated by Trump has led to unusual market behaviors, such as simultaneous declines in stocks, bonds, and the dollar, indicating a shift in risk management strategies among investors [4][6]. - The liquidity in the Treasury market remains tight, with the Federal Reserve reducing capital buffers to allow market makers to handle more Treasuries, highlighting the urgency of the situation [4][10]. Group 2: Geopolitical Events Impact - The recent Israeli airstrikes on Iran have not prompted the expected influx of safe-haven investments into U.S. Treasuries, which traditionally would occur during geopolitical crises [5][8]. - The dollar's initial reaction to the airstrikes was a decline, which is atypical for a safe-haven asset, further indicating a loss of confidence in U.S. Treasuries [6][8]. - The performance of gold and oil has surged, while Treasuries and the dollar have not attracted safe-haven flows, suggesting a significant shift in market perception [5][8]. Group 3: Broader Economic Concerns - The U.S. fiscal management is described as "disastrous," with unrealistic tax and spending policies that could lead to a weaker economic outlook [9]. - A global debt crisis is looming, with long-term bond auctions in developed countries facing issues, driven by unsustainable fiscal policies and declining demand from traditional buyers [10]. - The transition of long-term Treasury purchases from traditional buyers to highly leveraged hedge funds raises the likelihood of a significant crisis in the Treasury market [10].

Group 1 - The latest consumer data from the US shows the largest decline of the year in May, which has significant implications for both the US and other countries [1] - The conflict between Trump and the Federal Reserve has become public, with Trump advocating for interest rate cuts to support his manufacturing strategy [1] - The decline in consumer data may force the Federal Reserve to consider interest rate cuts, aligning with Trump's desires [1] Group 2 - A potential impact of US interest rate cuts could be an increase in foreign companies establishing factories in the US due to lower borrowing costs [3] - Rising oil prices, influenced by geopolitical tensions and the EU's decision to abandon Russian oil, could further drive companies to consider relocating to the US [3] - The recent increase in oil prices by 4.4% indicates a volatile market, which could affect corporate decisions regarding manufacturing locations [3] Group 3 - US interest rate cuts may open up opportunities for similar actions in other countries, as their interest rates are often aligned with US rates [4] - The potential for multiple interest rate cuts in other countries this year is contingent on the US Federal Reserve's actions [4] - Maintaining a stable interest rate differential is crucial to prevent capital flight, which could be managed if the US cuts rates [4] Group 4 - The ongoing trade war and rising costs in the US have contributed to declining consumer spending, which may pressure the Federal Reserve to lower rates [8] - The trade war has inadvertently created some benefits for other countries by potentially facilitating their own monetary easing [8] - There is an expectation that the Federal Reserve will soon announce interest rate cuts to address economic pressures [8]