责任编辑：王永生 黄金在亚洲早盘交易中创下历史新高，因地缘政治风险升温通常会增强这种贵金属的避险吸引力。洲际 交易所数据显示，现货黄金上涨0.3%，报每盎司4，455.89美元，早些时候曾触及每盎司4，459.59美 元。Naga的市场分析师Frank Walbaum表示，尽管外交努力仍在继续，但东欧实现停火的前景似乎越来 越渺茫。该市场分析师称，中东紧张局势依然严峻，同时美国和委内瑞拉之间的摩擦已经升级。 黄金在亚洲早盘交易中创下历史新高，因地缘政治风险升温通常会增强这种贵金属的避险吸引力。洲际 交易所数据显示，现货黄金上涨0.3%，报每盎司4，455.89美元，早些时候曾触及每盎司4，459.59美 元。Naga的市场分析师Frank Walbaum表示，尽管外交努力仍在继续，但东欧实现停火的前景似乎越来 越渺茫。该市场分析师称，中东紧张局势依然严峻，同时美国和委内瑞拉之间的摩擦已经升级。 新浪合作大平台期货开户 安全快捷有保障 新浪合作大平台期货开户 安全快捷有保障 责任编辑：王永生 ...

美股正式开启"圣诞老人行情"。 其中，与AI相关的股票全线大涨，进一步提振了市场做多情绪。截至收盘，英伟达、特斯拉、台积电 ADR涨超1%，甲骨文大涨逾3%，美光科技大涨超4%，投资者正密切关注这些科技股在估值过高的担 忧下能否在年底前保持领先地位。 其他大型科技股涨跌不一，苹果跌0.99%，谷歌C涨0.88%，微软跌0.21%，亚马逊涨0.48%，Meta涨 0.41%，博通涨0.51%。 美股太阳能板块涨势居前，Turbo Energy大涨10.99%，Sunrun大涨10.84%，阿特斯太阳能大涨10.78%， 第一太阳能涨6.6%，创2024年6月份以来收盘新高。 美国民营火箭公司Rocket Lab大涨9.97%，股价连续三日上涨，累计涨幅达44%，创2021年以来最佳表 现。消息面上，公司前一日成功发射了今年第21枚Electron运载火箭。不仅刷新了单年21次的发射纪 录，且保持100%的成功率。 在地缘政治风险急剧升温、美联储降息预期重新定价的背景下，贵金属成为资金最集中的去向之一。 周一，美股交易时段，国际黄金、白银价格加速上涨，COMEX黄金期货大涨2.13%，报4480.6美元/盎 司； ...

资金面上，多头入场意愿明显增强。数据显示，当日沪金主力合约增仓1.24万手，持仓量升至20.21万 手，创阶段性新高，显示资金 正持续加码布局。 国信期货首席分析师顾冯达表示，美联储政策预期与地缘不确定性构成当前金价的核心支撑。一方面， 美联储内部对政策路径仍存在分歧，"短期分歧、长期趋宽"的政策叙事不断强化市场对宽松周期的预 期；另一方面，中东局势潜在升级以及欧洲地缘政治演变，持续为市场注入避险溢价，巩固了贵金属的 配置价值。 在美联储降息预期持续升温、全球避险需求同步抬头的共振驱动下，贵金属市场再度上演集体狂飙行 情。 12月22日，国内、国际贵金属价格全线爆发。现货黄金、现货白银双双创历史新高，沪金主力合约再度 站上1000元/克整数关口；沪银主力合约大涨逾6%，创历史新高；铂、钯主力合约则双双封死涨停板， 成为当日盘面中最耀眼的品种。 在多重宏观变量叠加之下，资金加速涌入贵金属板块，行情呈现出明显的趋势性特征。与此同时，部分 机构也开始提示风险，提醒投资者警惕在连续大幅上涨之后，贵金属价格波动或显著加剧。 沪金突破1000元大关 经历前期短暂的震荡整理后，黄金市场再度走出强势单边行情，向历史高位发起新 ...

后市观点 周一油价高开高走最终收出大阳线，早盘市场迅速计价周末地缘层面的持续扰动。美国周末连续扣押二 艘运输委内瑞拉石油的油轮进一步增加了委内瑞拉石油出口中断风险。在俄乌和平谈判没有积极信息背 景下俄乌继续相互攻击对方能源设施，尤其是乌克兰有针对性的袭击俄罗斯里海石油平台及影子油轮 等，另外中东方面也传出以色列官员计划向特朗普通报可能对伊朗发动新一轮打击的计划的消息。下午 市场又传出俄罗斯一中将在莫斯科汽车炸弹爆炸中死亡的消息，持续发酵的地缘风险不断给市场注入风 险溢价。这样地缘炒作第四个交易日油价累积涨幅达到了3美元。 这样的涨幅是对目前地缘局势比较合理克制的估值，从目前委内瑞拉的局势来看，除了仍可往美国发运 之外，其他出口基本停止，这意味着供应端可能因此缺少50万桶/日左右的输出，虽然难以改变原油市 场供应过剩的局面，但还是对供应端有明显扰动。相比之下美国市场基本未受到冲击，虽然WTI原油价 格也在地缘炒作中反弹，但其月差几乎没有明显反弹。但是布伦特原油月差在美开始扣押运输委内瑞拉 原油的油轮后跟随油价反弹明显，这反应了该事件还是给全球供应带来了扰动。另一方面国际油价反弹 同时，受制裁冲击下的俄罗斯石油折 ...

12月23日，周一（12月22日）纽约时段，现货黄金价格加速上涨，日内涨幅扩大至2%，有望与现货白银一同录得逾四十 年来最强劲的年度表现。 央视新闻报道还提到，据乌克兰国家安全局消息人士称，其特种部队无人机首次在地中海打击了俄油轮，油轮受损严 重。 投资者同样在金价上行中扮演了关键角色，部分原因在于所谓的"贬值交易"——他们担心各国不断膨胀的债务水平，导 致资金撤离主权债券及其计价货币，转而配置黄金。 具体行情显示，现货黄金日内一度涨超2.3%报每盎司4442.22美元，现货白银一度涨3.3%报每盎司69.46美元，双双刷新 历史纪录，年内金银分别累涨69%和137%，势将创下1979年以来的最大年度涨幅。 高盛集团等多家银行预计金价将在2026年继续走高，其基准情景预测为每盎司4900美元，且上行风险更大。该行指出， ETF投资者正开始与各国央行争夺有限的实物供应。 Dilin Wu表示，中央银行购金、实物需求以及地缘政治对冲共同构成了"中长期锚定因素"，而美联储政策和实际利率仍 是推动周期性波动的关键因素。 分析认为，最新一波上涨源于交易员押注美联储将在2026年降息两次，美国总统特朗普也公开主张较宽松的 ...

油价上涨，美国升级对委内瑞拉的封锁行动。 继连续两周下跌后，WTI原油期货周一上涨2.4%，收于每桶58美元上方。 2月交割的WTI原油期货上涨2.4%，收于每桶58.01美元。 2月交割的布伦特原油期货上涨2.7%，收于每桶62.07美元。 美国海岸警卫队于周六在加勒比海域拦截并登检了满载约200万桶委内瑞拉原油的"世纪号"超级油轮。 这是首艘未出现在美国制裁名单中却成为拦截目标的船只。 美国海岸警卫队周日追逐了贝拉1号油轮，当时该船正驶向委内瑞拉。 乌克兰无人机首次在地中海击中一艘属于俄罗斯影子船队的油轮，这意味着OPEC+又一成员国的石油 供应面临的风险加剧。 2月交割的WTI原油期货上涨2.4%，收于每桶58.01美元。 2月交割的布伦特原油期货上涨2.7%，收于每桶62.07美元。 美国海岸警卫队于周六在加勒比海域拦截并登检了满载约200万桶委内瑞拉原油的"世纪号"超级油轮。 这是首艘未出现在美国制裁名单中却成为拦截目标的船只。 美国海岸警卫队周日追逐了贝拉1号油轮，当时该船正驶向委内瑞拉。 地缘政治风险为油价提供了一定支撑。受供应过剩影响，油价今年以来已下跌约五分之一。在需求增速 放缓的同时，OP ...

Group 1 - The core viewpoint of the news is the significant rise in gold prices, with London spot gold breaking the historical threshold of $4,400 per ounce, reaching a peak of $4,428.9 per ounce [1][3] - Major gold retailers, such as Chow Tai Fook and Lao Feng Xiang, have raised their retail gold prices, with Chow Tai Fook reporting a price of 1,368 yuan per gram, reflecting a daily increase of 0.59% [1] - The increase in gold prices is supported by expectations of the Federal Reserve's interest rate cuts in 2026, heightened geopolitical uncertainties, and a strong demand for gold from global central banks [3] Group 2 - According to Chen Li from Chuan Cai Securities, the international gold price may rise to a range of $4,500 to $5,000 per ounce by 2026, with extreme scenarios potentially exceeding $5,200 per ounce, driven by interest rate cuts, geopolitical risks, and central bank purchases [4] - Li Gang from the China Foreign Exchange Investment Research Institute warns that international gold prices are sensitive to policy expectations and risk sentiment, leading to amplified volatility, suggesting that ordinary investors should avoid chasing high prices [4]

地址：北京市朝阳区朝阳门外大街甲 6 号万通中心 D 座 20 层（100020） 总机：010-8535 6666 注:本报告有关现货市场的资讯与行情信息，来源于安云思、肥易通、国家统计局、隆众资讯、金十数 据、EIA、OPEC、IEA 等。 本公司具备期货交易咨询业务资格，请务必阅读免责声明。 分析师：王静，执业资格证号 F0235424/Z0000771。 苏妙达，执业资格证号 F03104403/Z0018167。 免责声明： 本报告中的信息均来源于公开资料，我公司对这些信息的准确性和完整性不作任何保证。报告中的内容和 意见仅供参考，并不构成对所述品种买卖的出价或征价。我公司及其雇员对使用本报告及其内容所引发的 任何直接或间接损失概不负责。本报告仅向特定客户传送，版权归冠通期货所有。未经我公司书面许可， 任何机构和个人均不得以任何形式翻版，复制，引用或转载。如引用、转载、刊发，须注明出处为冠通期 货股份有限公司。 每日核心期货品种分析 发布日期：2025 年 12 月 22 日 商品表现 数据来源:Wind、冠通研究咨询部 期市综述 截止 12 月 22 日收盘，国内期货主力合约涨跌互现。集运指数（欧 ...

Core Viewpoint - The recent surge in gold and silver prices is driven by strong demand for safe-haven assets amid expectations of further interest rate cuts by the U.S. Federal Reserve and geopolitical tensions, with gold surpassing $4,400 and silver reaching historical highs [1][2]. Group 1: Market Performance - Gold has increased by 67% this year, breaking through the $3,000 and $4,000 thresholds, potentially marking the largest annual gain since 1979 [2]. - Silver has outperformed gold with a year-to-date increase of 138%, supported by strong investment inflows and ongoing supply constraints [2]. - The current market conditions are characterized by a weak U.S. dollar, which makes gold cheaper for overseas buyers, further boosting demand [2]. Group 2: Technical Analysis - Gold has shown a strong upward trend, breaking past previous resistance levels, with a notable increase since November 18, indicating a sustained bullish momentum [3][5]. - Short-term trading strategies suggest focusing on potential pullbacks around $4,375 to $4,380 for buying opportunities, while being cautious of possible mid-term corrections [5][6]. - The technical outlook remains positive, with no immediate signs of a peak, although traders are advised to manage positions carefully to avoid losses from potential downturns [5][6]. Group 3: Trading Strategies - Suggested strategies include selling on rebounds near $4,420 to $4,425 with a target of $4,400 to $4,390, and buying on dips around $4,375 to $4,380 with a target of $4,400 to $4,420 [6]. - Emphasis is placed on strict risk management, including setting stop-loss orders to mitigate potential losses from sudden market movements [6][7].

Report Information - Report Title: Commodities Weekly Report - Report Date: December 22, 2025 - Author: Hu Jingyi from Guotou Futures - Investment Consulting Number: Z0019749 - Futures Practitioner Qualification Number: F03090299 1. Report Industry Investment Rating No relevant information provided. 2. Report's Core View - The overall commodity market rose slightly by 0.09% last week, with the black sector leading the gain at 3.04%, while the agricultural product sector fell by 2.12%. The liquidity environment is generally favorable, and the commodity market may run stably in the short - term [2][6]. - The dovish interest rate hike in Japan supported the US dollar index, but after the release of US economic and inflation data last week, market expectations for interest rate cuts increased, and short - term US dollar liquidity may remain stable. In China, the growth rate of fixed - asset investment and social retail sales slowed down in November, and economic growth continued to slow down moderately [2]. - Different commodity sectors have different short - term trends. The precious metals sector may be volatile and bullish; the non - ferrous metals sector may run stably; the black sector may fluctuate; the energy sector may fluctuate; the chemical sector's rebound space may be limited; and the agricultural products (oilseeds) sector may fluctuate [2][3][4]. 3. Summary by Relevant Catalogs 3.1 Market Review - **Overall Market Performance**: The overall commodity market rose slightly by 0.09% last week. The black, precious metals, energy - chemical, and non - ferrous sectors rose by 3.04%, 1.9%, 0.91%, and 0.79% respectively, while the agricultural product sector fell by 2.12% [2][6]. - **Top - Gaining and Top - Losing Varieties**: The top - gaining varieties were coking coal (9%), coke (8.31%), and PTA (4.45%); the top - losing varieties were rapeseed oil (- 6.45%), soybean oil (- 3.53%), and apples (- 3.36%) [2][6]. - **Volatility**: The 20 - day average volatility of the commodity market continued to rise, with only the agricultural product and precious metals sectors showing mainly declining volatility [2][6]. - **Fund Flow**: The overall market scale decreased slightly last week, and the non - ferrous, energy - chemical, and black sectors all had net capital outflows [2][6]. 3.2 Outlook for Different Sectors - **Precious Metals**: US economic data last week showed an economic cooling trend, and the November CPI data decline exceeded expectations. The core CPI reached a new low since March 2021. Fed Chair candidates Hasset and Waller believe there is still room for interest rate cuts. The sector may be volatile and bullish in the short - term [2]. - **Non - Ferrous Metals**: Overseas economic data is weak, interest rate cut expectations are rising, and the US dollar index is under pressure, with the macro environment generally positive. The inventory continued to decline last week, but the decline rate narrowed, and the spot premium was mainly weakening. However, there is still a risk of smelting contraction. The sector may run stably in the short - term [3]. - **Black Sector**: The apparent demand for rebar improved last week, production increased slightly, and inventory continued to decline. Steel mills' profitability is poor, and due to environmental protection factors, the decline in hot metal production is still large, but steel mill profits are showing marginal improvement, and the production - cut trend may slow down. For raw materials, the global shipment of iron ore increased month - on - month and was stronger than the same period last year, and the domestic arrival volume rebounded; the total coking coal inventory increased slightly. After the oversold rebound, the market sentiment has become cautious, and the sector may fluctuate in the short - term [3]. - **Energy Sector**: The Berlin negotiation between the US and Ukraine last week was very positive, leading to market concerns that an agreement may increase the supply pressure of Russian oil. EIA data showed that although crude oil inventory decreased, gasoline and distillate oil inventories increased unexpectedly. The supply - loose pattern always puts pressure on oil prices. However, the escalation of the US - Venezuela situation and the Russia - Ukraine geopolitical issue may bring phased risk premiums. Oil prices may fluctuate in the short - term [3]. - **Chemical Sector**: For polyester varieties, the expectation of tight supply led to a significant increase in PX positions and price. Stimulated by raw material price increases, downstream buyers replenished inventory at low prices, and polyester filament inventory decreased. The short - term polyester start - up rate will be maintained, but it is expected to decline later due to mid - line inventory accumulation and the Spring Festival factor. The short - term cost support is strong, but the rebound space may be limited under the background of a downward demand period [4]. - **Agricultural Products Sector**: Recently, the weather in South America has continued to improve, and the probability of La Nina turning into ENSO neutral in the first quarter of next year is 68%. The trading logic has returned to concerns about US soybean exports and expectations of a bumper harvest in South America. The US soybean futures price has fallen back to the previous bottom range, and soybean meal may follow the adjustment in the short - term. The global rapeseed supply - demand pattern is loose, and the weak rapeseed oil has also led to the weakening of soybean and palm oil. The Malaysian palm oil market still faces high inventory pressure. Although the production decreased month - on - month in November, the decline was small, and the demand was even worse. The oilseeds sector may fluctuate in the short - term [4]. 3.3 Commodity Fund Overview - Gold ETFs generally had positive returns, with the total return of gold ETFs at 0.07%. The returns of individual gold ETFs such as Qianhai Kaiyuan Gold ETF and Tianhong Shanghai Gold ETF were 1.16% and 0.98% respectively [38]. - The energy - chemical ETF (Jianxin Yisheng Zhengshang Energy Chemical Futures ETF) had a return of 2.71% [38]. - The soybean meal ETF (Huaxia Feed Soybean Meal Futures ETF) had a return of - 1.32% [38]. - The non - ferrous ETF (Dacheng Non - Ferrous Metals Futures ETF) had a return of - 0.66% [38]. - The silver fund (Guotou Ruixin Silver Futures (LOF)) had a return of 3.47% [38]. - The total return of commodity ETFs was 0.24% [38].