行 农林牧渔 2025 年 12 月 08 日 业 研 究 农林牧渔 猪价弱势运行，11 月第三方能繁延续去化 投资要点： 行 业 定 期 报 告 生猪养殖：猪价维持弱势，11 月第三方能繁延续去化。（1）月初缩 量拉涨有限，本周猪价窄幅回调。本月初集团场缩量拉涨猪价，但市场接 受度有限，散户大猪顺势出栏，供应压力持续，供大于求格局持续。12 月 5 日猪价 11.19 元/公斤，周环比-0.01 元/公斤。（2）本周屠宰量继续增长。 受降温天气带动，四川地区腌腊、灌肠活动陆续启动，对生猪屠宰量形成 支撑。本周样本屠宰企业日均屠宰量为 17.66 万头，周环比+1.83%。（3） 本周生猪出栏均重继续增长。本周集团出栏节奏收窄后放量，集团出栏均 重小幅增加；散户受制于资金和疫情影响，北方多地散户大猪出栏积极性 偏强，散户出栏均重增幅明显。截至 12 月 4 日当周，行业生猪出栏均重 129.82 公斤，周环比+0.60 公斤。展望后市，养殖已陷入亏损状态，叠加产 能调控政策推进，行业产能去化预计持续，有望推动长期猪价中枢上移， 低成本优质猪企将获得超额收益。根据农业农村部数据，10 月末全国能繁 母猪存栏量降 ...

农林学文 主 2025 年 12 月 08 日 站玩人分出品 申万宏源研究微信服务号 猪价继续震荡走弱, 亏损 能去化提速 – 农林牧渔周观点（2025.12.1-2025.12.7） 本期投资提示: 请务必仔细阅读正文之后的各项信息披露与声明 研究支持 朱珺逸 A0230521080004 zhujy@swsresearch.com 胡静航 A0230524090002 hujh@swsresearch.com 联系人 盛瀚 A0230522080006 shenghan@swsresearch.com 证券分析师 盛瀚 A0230522080006 shenghan@swsresearch.com 看好 相关研究 本周申万农林牧渔指数下跌 1.5%，沪深 300 上涨 1.3%。个股涨幅前五名：好当家 ● (16.2%)、平潭发展 (10.6%)、西王食品 (10.3%)、生物股份 (9.7%)、福建金森 (9.4%)，跌幅前五名：绿康生化（-10.1%）、ST 天山（-8.9%）、*ST 傲农（-6.5%） 中水 渔业 (-6.5%)、益生股份 (-5.3%)。 投资分析意见：行业亏损加剧，产能加速去化 ...

行 业 及 产 业 农林牧渔 行 业 研 究 / 行 业 点 评 - 请务必仔细阅读正文之后的各项信息披露与声明 证券分析师 盛瀚 A0230522080006 shenghan@swsresearch.com 研究支持 朱珺逸 A0230521080004 zhujy@swsresearch.com 胡静航 A0230524090002 hujh@swsresearch.com 联系人 盛瀚 A0230522080006 shenghan@swsresearch.com 2025 年 12 月 08 日 猪价继续震荡走弱，亏损加剧、产 能去化提速 看好 —— 农林牧渔周观点（2025.12.1-2025.12.7） 本期投资提示： 本研究报告仅通过邮件提供给 博时基金 博时基金管理有限公司(researchreport@bosera.com) 使用。1 证 券 研 究 报 告 相关研究 ⚫ 本周申万农林牧渔指数下跌 1.5%，沪深 300 上涨 1.3%。个股涨幅前五名：好当家 （16.2%）、平潭发展（10.6%）、西王食品（10.3%）、生物股份（9.7%）、福建金森 （9.4%），跌幅前五名：绿康生化 ...

农林牧渔 2025 年 12 月 08 日 业 研 究 农林牧渔 猪价弱势运行，11 月第三方能繁延续去化 投资要点： 行 业 定 期 报 告 生猪养殖：猪价维持弱势，11 月第三方能繁延续去化。（1）月初缩 量拉涨有限，本周猪价窄幅回调。本月初集团场缩量拉涨猪价，但市场接 受度有限，散户大猪顺势出栏，供应压力持续，供大于求格局持续。12 月 5 日猪价 11.19 元/公斤，周环比-0.01 元/公斤。（2）本周屠宰量继续增长。 受降温天气带动，四川地区腌腊、灌肠活动陆续启动，对生猪屠宰量形成 支撑。本周样本屠宰企业日均屠宰量为 17.66 万头，周环比+1.83%。（3） 本周生猪出栏均重继续增长。本周集团出栏节奏收窄后放量，集团出栏均 重小幅增加；散户受制于资金和疫情影响，北方多地散户大猪出栏积极性 偏强，散户出栏均重增幅明显。截至 12 月 4 日当周，行业生猪出栏均重 129.82 公斤，周环比+0.60 公斤。展望后市，养殖已陷入亏损状态，叠加产 能调控政策推进，行业产能去化预计持续，有望推动长期猪价中枢上移， 低成本优质猪企将获得超额收益。根据农业农村部数据，10 月末全国能繁 母猪存栏量降至 ...

来源：市场资讯 （来源：大佑农饲料） 十二月伊始，生猪市场迎来短暂上涨，市场一度以为曙光初现，但好景不长，价格迅速回落。11月以来 持续阴跌的走势在12月得到延续，行业压力有增无减。 数据显示，11月最后一周全国猪肉均价为22.86元/公斤，同比下跌19.3%，消费低迷态势明显。 01 供应压顶 进入12月，生猪市场的供应压力已成为板上钉钉的事实。第一重压力源自前期能繁母猪存栏高位运行。 今年2月全国能繁母猪存栏达4066万头，环比微增0.1%，这意味着12月对应的生猪出栏量必然处于高位 水平。 多家行业机构调研显示，实际产能可能比官方数据更高，为后续市场埋下了供应过剩的隐患。 更令人担忧的是，如果供应放量超预期，市场可能面临超跌风险。这种剧烈波动虽然痛苦，却可能加速 行业洗牌，为后续恢复创造条件。 04 行业困境 第二重压力来自年底集中出栏。12月不仅是消费旺季，更是出栏高峰月。11月猪价阴跌导致部分养殖户 压栏惜售，但随着12月价格继续下行，这些被积压的生猪很可能会涌入市场。 规模养殖企业面临年度目标压力，往往在最后一个月加速出栏以冲刺业绩。这种双重放量使得供应端压 力空前增大。 02 需求失约 与供应端 ...

热点栏目 自选股 数据中心 行情中心 资金流向 模拟交易 客户端 一、全国产蛋鸡存栏下滑但绝对量仍处于高位 全国产蛋鸡存栏量从2025年9月起开始下降，产能见顶后的拐点或已出现。不过，虽然产蛋鸡存栏量月 环比下行，但是斜率平缓且产蛋鸡存栏的绝对量仍处于近年历史同期最高位，庞大的供应压力较前期仅 是略降，现货市场鸡蛋供应压力仍较大。据钢联数据显示，2025年11月全国13个重点省份产蛋鸡存栏量 总和为13.07亿只，前一月为13.11亿只，月环比降幅0.31%，去年同期为12.05亿只，同比增幅8.46%。 二、行业淘鸡节奏存在反复可能 养殖利润亏损是当前主导产能去化的核心驱动，单斤鸡蛋利润处于盈亏平衡线下，养殖边际利润为负， 为减少持续亏损，养殖端加速老鸡淘汰以缩减规模，全国淘汰鸡平均出栏日龄不断走低，淘汰鸡出栏量 持续走高。据钢联数据显示，截至2025年11月28日当周，全国代表地区淘汰鸡平均出栏日龄为489天， 较前一月减少8天，较去年同期减少46天；淘汰鸡周度出栏量为66.9万只，月环比增幅为8.52%，同比增 幅为21.22%。淘汰加速有利于缓解产蛋鸡高存栏带来的供应压力，但是淘鸡出栏日龄已偏低，养殖 ...

Report Industry Investment Rating - The mid - term outlook for the black building materials industry is "oscillation" [7] Core Viewpoints of the Report - The macro - environment is warm with the upcoming December Central Economic Work Conference and overseas interest - rate cut expectations. Steel products are in the off - season but continue to reduce inventory, with a firm performance on the futures market. Iron ore is under pressure due to the expected seasonal decline in hot metal. Coal and coke have rebounded from low levels on the futures market, while glass and soda ash are suppressed by oversupply [1][2]. - Overall, the off - season fundamentals have limited highlights. There is a possibility of positive news from the macro and policy fronts, and the futures market may have phased upward opportunities due to improved macro - sentiment [7]. Summary by Relevant Catalogs 1. Iron Element - **Iron Ore**: Hot metal production has decreased significantly, downstream demand has declined, and steel mills are undergoing annual maintenance. Although the profitability rate of steel mills has slightly improved, the release of restocking demand is still slow. Overseas mine shipments have slightly increased month - on - month, with a decrease in Australian shipments, a significant increase in Brazilian shipments, and a slight decrease in non - mainstream shipments. The current arrival volume has decreased month - on - month, and port inventories have continued to accumulate. The rigid demand support is gradually weakening, and the release of restocking demand is slow. With macro expectations ahead of important meetings, short - term ore prices are expected to oscillate. The supply and demand of scrap steel have both decreased, but its cost - effectiveness has recovered after the spot price decline. The profits of electric furnaces are acceptable, and the demand for scrap steel from long - and short - process steel enterprises is still supported, with limited downward space. Scrap steel prices are expected to oscillate [2]. 2. Carbon Element - **Coke**: Coke supply continues to increase, while steel mill开工 has declined seasonally. Coke supply and demand are slightly loose. With the continuous weakening of spot cost support, there are still 1 - 2 rounds of supplementary price cuts expected, but due to the subsequent winter restocking expectations for raw materials, the possibility of multiple consecutive rounds of price cuts is low. The futures market is expected to follow coking coal and oscillate [3]. - **Coking Coal**: The current valuation level of coking coal on the futures market is still low. The low - production state of domestic coal mines will continue, and the subsequent winter restocking expectations of the middle and lower reaches are strong. There is still support at the bottom of the spot price. The near - month contracts may remain oscillating due to delivery, while the far - month contracts are less affected and are expected to oscillate with an upward trend [3]. 3. Alloys - **Manganese Silicon**: The increase in manganese silicon costs supports the price, but the market supply - demand situation remains loose. Further upward movement of the futures price will face spot warehouse receipt selling pressure, and caution is needed regarding the extent of further price increases [3]. - **Silicon Iron**: The strong cost trend supports the bottom of the silicon iron price, but the market situation of weak supply and demand continues. Further upward movement of the futures price may face warehouse receipt selling pressure, and caution is needed regarding the upside potential of the main contract futures price [3]. 4. Glass and Soda Ash - **Glass**: There are still expectations of supply disruptions, but the inventories of middle and downstream enterprises are moderately high. Currently, supply and demand are still in an oversupply situation. If there is no more cold - repair by the end of the year, high inventories will always suppress prices, and prices are expected to oscillate weakly. Otherwise, prices may rise [3][14]. - **Soda Ash**: The soda ash industry price is close to the cost, with obvious bottom support. Recently, the cold - repair of glass has increased further, but the overall supply and demand are still in an oversupply situation. In the short term, it is expected to oscillate, and in the long term, the oversupply pattern will intensify, and the price center will continue to decline, promoting capacity reduction [3][18]. 5. Individual Product Analysis - **Steel Products**: The demand has declined month - on - month. The overall spot market transactions are average. As the end of the year approaches, steel mill maintenance has increased, and hot metal production has continued to decline. Steel production has decreased from a high level, especially the production of rebar. The funds available for domestic construction sites have weakened month - on - month, and the demand for building materials has weakened significantly. Steel inventories continue to decline, but the current inventory level is still higher than the same period last year. With the weakening demand, the speed of inventory reduction is difficult to accelerate. The third - round and fifth - batch central ecological and environmental protection inspection teams have reported some typical environmental problems in Tianjin and Hebei, but the impact on the production of northern steel mills is limited. The profitability rate of steel mills has improved this week, and it is expected that steel production will not decline significantly in the future. With the upcoming December Central Economic Work Conference and overseas interest - rate cut expectations, the macro - environment is warm, and the futures market has the driving force to rebound from low levels, but the upside space is limited due to poor fundamentals [8]. - **Scrap Steel**: The arrival volume and daily consumption of scrap steel have decreased, and steel mill restocking has slowed down. The supply and demand of scrap steel have both decreased, but its cost - effectiveness has recovered after the spot price decline. The profits of electric furnaces are acceptable, and the demand for scrap steel from long - and short - process steel enterprises is still supported, with limited downward space. Scrap steel prices are expected to oscillate [11]. - **Manganese Silicon**: The futures price of the main contract has oscillated strongly due to the warm trend of the black sector and the significant increase in manganese ore port quotations, which has strengthened the cost support for manganese silicon. The cost of manganese silicon has gradually increased, but the market supply - demand situation remains loose, and caution is needed regarding the extent of further price increases [19]. - **Silicon Iron**: The price of the main contract has risen due to the strong trend of black chain varieties and the increase in settlement electricity prices in Ningxia and Qinghai, which has strengthened the cost support and production - reduction expectations for silicon iron. The cost trend is strong, but the market situation of weak supply and demand continues. Caution is needed regarding the upside potential of the main contract futures price [21].

投资咨询业务资格：证监许可【2012】669号 中信期货研究|农业策略⽇报 2025-12-5 玉米供需博弈加剧，盘面再创新高 油脂：回落压力增大 蛋白粕：南美豆贴水跌出性价比，关注中国买船 玉米/淀粉：供需博弈加剧，盘面再创新高 生猪：供应充足，猪价低位震荡 天然橡胶：下游买盘清淡，盘面表现较弱 合成橡胶：盘面利多驱动不足 棉花：新棉集中上市压制短期高度，远月估值修复仍可期 白糖：下行压力边际增大 纸浆：纸浆延续上涨，现货转强明显 双胶纸：现货偏稳，盘面震荡 原木：新西兰进入减运阶段，中期供应压力或有缓解 风险因素：宏观大幅变动；气候异常；供需超预期变化 【异动品种】 ⽟⽶观点：供需博弈加剧，盘⾯再创新⾼ 逻辑：今日国内玉米价格各地走势不一，华北深加工依旧偏弱运行；其余 地区价格持续上涨。近期，玉米期现货表现强势，支撑价格强势的核心指 标是北方港口库存低位运行。政策托底、优粮紧缺与需求补库形成三重支 撑，目前市场流动性较好，这一趋势暂时维持。1)华北粮质偏差毒素偏 高，本地粮无法大量流入饲用，导致各地饲用企业纷纷采购东北订单。2) 西北区域由于玉米开秤后价格一路走高，导致贸易商成本偏高，西北粮持 续与销区倒 ...

资金逢低布局畜牧板块，畜牧ETF(159867)盘中净申购3800万份。 截至2025年12月4日 13:33，中证畜牧养殖指数(930707)成分股方面涨跌互现，海大集团(002311)领涨 1.44%，华英农业(002321)上涨1.43%，中牧股份(600195)上涨1.28%；罗牛山(000735)领跌。畜牧 ETF(159867)最新报价0.64元。 畜牧ETF跟踪指数中证畜牧[930707.CSI]，数据显示，申万三级行业中： 1. 生猪板块：小体重猪出栏占比上升，持续关注冬季疫病防控情况！猪价持续阴跌&仔猪价格企稳。截 至11月末，全国生猪均价11.63元/kg，行业自繁自养亏损为111元/头。需求端，天气转凉，北方屠宰企 业表现在低猪价阶段的主动加量动作，南方市场主要以川渝区域带动为主，地方性尝鲜期腌腊消费开 启，本周日度屠宰样本日均宰杀量环比增加3.39%。同时受气温下降影响，山东南部、辽宁西部部分区 域有零星猪病散发，90kg以下小体重猪整体出栏占比为4.83%，较上周增加0.34%。应重视生猪板块空 间和重视优秀企业的盈利能力，在25年猪价持续低位与政策引导情况下，后续产能有望去化。 动 ...

天风农业团队指出，受气温下降影响，山东南部、辽宁西部部分区域有零星猪病散发，本周90kg以下小 体重猪整体出栏占比为4.83%，较上周增加0.34%。连续增长7周，后续需持续观察。政策引导减产&养 殖亏损&疫病干扰情况下，后续产能有望持续去化。机构强调，重视生猪板块空间，重视优秀企业的盈 利能力，在25年猪价持续低位&政策引导情况下，后续产能有望去化。 截至2025年12月3日 13:29，中证畜牧养殖指数(930707)成分股罗牛山(000735)上涨9.98%，益客食品 (301116)上涨3.36%，金新农(002548)上涨2.82%，海利生物(603718)上涨2.50%，中牧股份(600195)上涨 2.23%。畜牧ETF(159867)上涨0.46%，最新价报0.65元。 畜牧ETF紧密跟踪中证畜牧养殖指数，中证畜牧养殖指数选取涉及畜禽饲料、畜禽药物以及畜禽养殖等 业务的上市公司证券作为样本，以反映畜牧养殖相关上市公司的整体表现。 数据显示，截至2025年11月28日，中证畜牧养殖指数(930707)前十大权重股分别为牧原股份(002714)、 温氏股份(300498)、海大集团(002311) ...