Investment Rating - The industry investment rating is "Overweight" [5] Core Views - The report highlights a divergence in the data for breeding sows, with a 0.96% decrease in the breeding sow inventory at the end of Q1, marking the end of three consecutive quarters of increase. This indicates a potential shift in production capacity [1][2] - Despite the recent increase in pig prices, the report suggests that the downward trend in prices may be difficult to reverse in the future due to increased supply from rising breeding sow inventories and piglet numbers [1][3] - The report emphasizes the importance of monitoring the official start of production capacity reduction, which could present investment opportunities in companies such as Muyuan Foods, Wens Foodstuff Group, Juxing Agriculture, and Shennong Group [1][3] Summary by Sections Breeding Sow Inventory - As of the end of Q1, the national breeding sow inventory was reported at 40.39 million heads, a decrease of 390,000 heads or approximately 0.96% from the previous quarter, ending a trend of increases observed from Q2 to Q4 of the previous year [2] - Third-party monitoring data shows mixed results, with some reporting increases while others indicate a decrease, suggesting a more accurate reflection of actual production capacity trends [2] Pig Prices - Post-Spring Festival, pig prices have remained stable, fluctuating between 14.5 to 14.7 yuan per kilogram, with a brief increase to 15 yuan per kilogram around mid-April, which was stronger than market expectations [3] - The report attributes the stability in prices to factors such as low frozen product inventories and increased market demand, although it warns that the overall trend may still be downward due to rising supply [3] Investment Recommendations - The report recommends focusing on companies that may benefit from the anticipated changes in production capacity, specifically highlighting Muyuan Foods, Wens Foodstuff Group, Juxing Agriculture, and Shennong Group as key investment opportunities [1][3][8]

Investment Rating - The report maintains a "Recommended" rating for the agriculture, forestry, animal husbandry, and fishery industry [1] Core Views - The report highlights the weak fluctuation of pig prices, with expectations of a downward trend in the short term and a long-term weak operation in 2025 due to increased supply and weak demand [4][14] - The poultry sector may see price improvements due to the impact of tariffs and a shortage of quality breeding stock caused by avian influenza [5][28] - The animal health sector is expected to benefit from improved downstream demand and external expansion opportunities, with rising prices for key products like Tylosin [6][41] - The planting sector is experiencing price fluctuations for major grains, with a focus on the commercialization of genetically modified seeds [8][46] - The feed sector is seeing a decline in prices, with recommendations for companies like Haida Group [8][49] - The pet market continues to grow rapidly, with strong performance from domestic brands and recommendations for companies in the pet food and medical sectors [8][54][57] Summary by Sections Pig Industry - Pig prices are expected to adjust slightly, with a forecast of weak performance in 2025 due to increased supply [4][14] - As of April 10, 2025, the average price of live pigs is 14.6 CNY/kg, with no change from the previous week [14] Poultry Industry - The poultry sector may see price increases due to tariff impacts and a lack of quality breeding stock [5][28] - The average price of broiler chickens is 3.75 CNY/lb, reflecting a weekly increase [28] Animal Health - The animal health sector is experiencing improved profitability, with Tylosin prices rising significantly [6][41] - The report suggests focusing on companies with expected external expansion, such as Reap Bio [6] Planting Sector - Major grain prices are fluctuating, with corn priced at 2199 CNY/ton and wheat at 2422 CNY/ton [8][46] - The report recommends companies involved in genetically modified seed development [8] Feed Sector - Feed prices are declining, with pig feed at 3.35 CNY/kg [8][49] - The report suggests focusing on companies like Haida Group due to expected industry consolidation [8] Pet Industry - The pet market is projected to reach 300.2 billion CNY in 2024, with a growth rate of 7.5% [8][54] - Recommendations include companies like Guobao Pet and Zhongchong Co., which are experiencing significant growth [8][57]

白羽肉鸡价格短期有所回升 投资要点： 2025 年 3 月 14 日 S0340513040002 电话：0769-22119462 邮箱：whm2@dgzq.com.cn 分析师：黄冬祎 行 业 超配（维持） 农林牧渔行业双周报（2025/2/28-2025/3/13） | 1.行情回顾 | | 3 | | | --- | --- | --- | --- | | 1.1 | SW | 农林牧渔行业跑赢沪深 300 指数 | 3 | | 1.2 | | 多数细分板块录得正收益 | 3 | | 1.3 | | 过半个股录得正收益 | 3 | | 1.4 | 估值 | | 4 | | 2.行业重要数据 | | 4 | | | 3.行业重要资讯 | | 8 | | | 4.公司重要资讯 | | 8 | | | 5.行业周观点 | | 9 | | | 6.风险提示 | | 9 | | | 图 | 1：2025 | 年 2 | 月 | 28 | 日-2025 | 年 | 3 月 | 13 | | 日申万一级行业涨幅（%） | | | 3 | | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | - ...

Summary of Conference Call on Swine Industry Industry Overview - The conference call focuses on the swine industry, specifically the current market conditions and trends in pig farming and pricing. Key Points and Arguments 1. **Current Market Conditions**: The swine market entered a secondary fattening phase starting February 10, with prices at 14.6 CNY/kg, but farms are experiencing losses due to high costs. As of now, prices have slightly decreased to 14.5 CNY/kg [2][3] 2. **Utilization of Blue Coupons**: The utilization rate of blue coupons for secondary fattening increased from 10%-15% to 20%-30% between January 20 and February 28, with significant growth in regions like Heilongjiang and Liaoning [2][3] 3. **Slaughtering Plans**: There is a notable increase in slaughtering plans from January to March, with Shanghai Steel Union reporting a month-on-month growth of 10.95% and Yongyi reporting 14.25%. This indicates significant pressure on slaughtering rates in March and continued growth into April [4] 4. **Weight Trends**: Post-Spring Festival, the average weight of pigs has been rising, reaching 127.06 kg by March 6, the highest since 2019. The average post-slaughter weight was recorded at 89.57 kg as of February 28, indicating a general trend of increasing weight [5] 5. **Accumulation Phenomenon**: The market is experiencing both volume and weight accumulation, particularly evident after the Spring Festival. It is expected that this accumulation will gradually be released in March and April, impacting the market [6] 6. **Fat and Lean Price Differential**: The average fat and lean price differential was approximately 0.46 CNY/jin from February 28 to March 6, maintaining a positive value post-Spring Festival. The absolute price differential has been narrowing for about a month [7] 7. **Pre-Spring Festival Sales**: Ahead of the Spring Festival, farmers anticipated potential losses and thus sold pigs early, leading to a 3% year-on-year increase in slaughtering volume at Muyuan's slaughterhouse from December to January [8] 8. **Feed Data Impact**: Feed data turned positive in January and February, with rising prices for corn and soybean meal. This has led to increased feed consumption, aligning with the overall accumulation in the swine industry [9] 9. **Future Supply Expectations**: In the coming months, the supply side is expected to be in a bottleneck state, particularly in Sichuan where slaughter weights have exceeded 135 kg. Prices may drop to between 13-13.5 CNY/kg as the backlog is released, with secondary fattening and frozen storage demand providing support [10] 10. **Impact on Company Stock Prices**: As production capacity is reduced and piglet prices decline, a strong phase of capacity reduction is anticipated in March and April. If pig prices exceed 14-15 CNY/kg, it could positively impact the stock prices of companies like Muyuan, Wens, Shennong, and Juxing, which have lower costs and growth potential [11] Other Important Insights - The overall trend indicates a complex interplay of rising weights, price pressures, and market expectations that could influence investment opportunities in the swine industry. The focus on cost management and market timing will be crucial for stakeholders in this sector.