Report Information - Release Date: October 21, 2025 [3] Market Trends International Futures - International precious metal futures generally closed higher, with COMEX gold futures up 3.82% at $4374.30 per ounce and COMEX silver futures up 2.59% at $51.40 per ounce. Factors include US government shutdown, Fed rate - cut expectations, EU energy policy shift, central bank gold - buying, and Sino - US trade friction [4]. - US crude oil futures' main contract fell 0.38% to $56.93 per barrel, and Brent crude oil futures' main contract dropped 0.57% to $60.94 per barrel. Rising global production, slowing economic growth, and reduced geopolitical risks pressured oil prices [4]. - Most London base metals rose. LME zinc, lead, copper, tin, and nickel increased, while LME aluminum declined. The Fed's signal of a possible slowdown in rate hikes and a weaker US dollar drove the price increase [4]. Domestic Futures - Domestic futures contracts showed mixed performance. Shanghai gold rose over 2%, and Shanghai silver rose over 1%. Some commodities like soybeans and pulp had small increases, while coking coal and soda ash dropped over 2%, and others like glass and coke fell over 1% [6]. Important Information Macroeconomic Information - The People's Bank of China kept the one - year and five - year loan prime rates (LPR) at 3% and 3.5% respectively [8]. - China's GDP in the first three quarters increased by 5.2% year - on - year, with an economic increment of 3967.9 billion yuan, 136.8 billion yuan more than the previous year [8]. - As of October 9, 2025, China's futures market capital exceeded 2 trillion yuan, reaching about 2.02 trillion yuan, a 24% increase from the end of 2024 [8]. - As of October 20, 2025, the Shanghai Export Containerized Freight Index (European route) was 1140.38 points, up 10.5% from the previous period [9]. Energy and Chemical Futures - The EU plans to gradually stop importing Russian oil and gas by January 1, 2028 [11]. - Zhengzhou Commodity Exchange plans to revise the urea futures business rules, adding large - granular urea as an alternative delivery product [13]. - Dalian Commodity Exchange will expand the scope of tradable products for qualified overseas investors, including linear low - density polyethylene, polyvinyl chloride, and polypropylene monthly average price futures, starting from the night session on October 28, 2025 [13]. - As of October 20, 2025, domestic soda ash manufacturers' total inventory was 1.7107 million tons, up 0.60% from the previous week [13]. Metal Futures - The global lithium demand is expected to grow at an average annual rate of about 20% to 4 million tons by 2030, driven by battery demand [15]. - Some polysilicon production bases in Southwest China will gradually reduce raw material input and stop production by the end of October - early November, with an affected capacity of about 320,000 tons per year [15]. - Global primary aluminum production in September 2025 was 6.08 million tons. China's estimated production was 3.644 million tons [15]. - China's tin concentrate imports in September 2025 were 8714 tons, down 15.13% month - on - month but up 10.68% year - on - year [16]. Black - Series Futures - From October 13 - 19, 2025, global iron ore shipments were 33.335 million tons, up 1.26 million tons from the previous week [19]. - In September 2025, China's crude steel production was 73.49 million tons, down 4.6% year - on - year; pig iron production was 66.05 million tons, down 2.4% year - on - year; and steel production was 124.21 million tons, up 5.1% year - on - year [19]. - The Ministry of Industry and Information Technology held a meeting on cement industry stability, emphasizing capacity replacement and standardization [19]. - From now until October 23, 2025, Tangshan's section steel mills will implement production control, with an expected开工率 of 33% and a daily output reduction of about 50,000 tons [20]. - HeSteel Group set the final price of silicomanganese in October at 5820 yuan per ton [21]. - Coal mines in Shuozhou's Shanyin County stopped production on October 20, 2025, with a total capacity of 34 million tons, and are expected to resume on October 24 [22]. Agricultural Futures - In the first three quarters, China's pig slaughter was 529.92 million heads, up 1.8% year - on - year, and pork production was 43.68 million tons, up 3.0% year - on - year [25]. - As of the week of October 17, domestic major soybean oil mills' soybean crushing volume was 2.17 million tons, and it is expected to rise to about 2.3 million tons this week [25]. - As of October 17, 2025, palm oil commercial inventory in key regions increased by 5.13% week - on - week, while soybean oil commercial inventory decreased by 3.25% week - on - week [25]. - Malaysia's palm oil exports from October 1 - 20 increased by 3.4% compared to the same period last month [26]. - China did not import soybeans from the US in September 2025 and is increasing purchases from South American countries [26]. - As of October 15, the national pig ex - factory price was 11.90 yuan per kilogram, down 6.08% from October 8 [26]. - As of last Thursday, Brazil's 2025/26 soybean sowing rate was 24%, and the sowing area of the first - crop corn in the central - southern region reached 51% of the planned area [26]. - As of October 20, the national imported soybean port inventory was 6.96254 million tons, up 314,570 tons from the previous week [28]. - US soybean export inspections in the week ending October 16, 2025, were 1.474354 million tons [28]. - As of October 18, Brazil's soybean sowing rate was 21.7% [29]. Financial Markets Financial - On Monday, A - shares oscillated with reduced trading volume. The Shanghai Composite Index rose 0.63%, the Shenzhen Component Index rose 0.98%, and the ChiNext Index rose 1.98%. Market turnover decreased to 1.75 trillion yuan [31]. - The Hong Kong Hang Seng Index rose 2.42%, the Hang Seng Tech Index rose 3%, and the Hang Seng China Enterprises Index rose 2.45%. Southbound funds had a net sell - off of HK$2.67 billion [31]. - There are rumors that the Shanghai and Shenzhen Stock Exchanges may select a CSI A500ETF as an option underlying asset [31]. Industry - The Ministry of Industry and Information Technology emphasized the implementation of the cement industry's stability plan, including no new capacity, standardizing existing capacity, and eliminating backward capacity [32]. - In the first three quarters, the land transfer fees of 300 cities' residential land increased by 12% year - on - year, but the transaction area decreased by 8%. In the third quarter, the land market cooled [32]. - Shanghai's eighth batch of centralized land auctions had a total transaction amount of 19.877 billion yuan, with a record - high floor price in the Xuhui Riverside area [32]. - The 2025 Beijing International Wind Energy Conference proposed to increase China's annual new wind power installation capacity during the 15th Five - Year Plan period and set long - term installation goals [32]. - As of the end of September, China's electric vehicle charging infrastructure reached 18.063 million units, a 54.5% year - on - year increase [33]. - In September, China's industrial raw coal production decreased by 1.8% year - on - year, while crude oil and natural gas production increased. Crude steel and pig iron production reached new lows since December 2023 [33]. Overseas - The US and Australia signed an agreement on rare earths and critical minerals, planning to invest over $3 billion in the next 6 months and build a gallium processing plant in Western Australia [35]. - Trump claimed that Modi promised to stop buying Russian oil, and threatened to impose "huge" tariffs if India does not fulfill the promise [35]. - The White House's economic advisor said the government shutdown may end this week, and stronger measures may be taken if not [35]. - Argentina's central bank signed a $20 - billion swap agreement with the US Treasury [36]. - The Bank of Korea's governor said the bank has not considered a currency swap with the US Treasury [37]. - The EU supports phasing out Russian natural gas imports by January 2028 [37]. - A hawkish member of the Bank of Japan warned of price - rising risks and said the central bank may raise the benchmark interest rate. The BOJ may slightly raise the 2025 fiscal year's economic growth forecast [37]. - Vietnam's government set a GDP growth target of at least 10% in 2026 and expects an 8% growth this year [38]. International Stock Markets - US stocks rose across the board, driven by Apple's record - high price, hopes of ending the government shutdown, and strong iPhone 17 sales [40]. - European stocks also closed higher, benefiting from better - than - expected Chinese economic data, expectations of Sino - US trade talks, improved corporate earnings, and reduced risk aversion [40]. - Japan's stock market rose strongly after the increased possibility of Takamichi Sanae becoming the prime minister. South Korea's stock market also reached a new high [40]. - Vietnam's stock market tumbled due to reports of corporate bond issuance irregularities in the banking and real - estate sectors [41]. Commodities - On October 9, 2025, China's futures market capital exceeded 2 trillion yuan [42]. - Linear low - density polyethylene, polyvinyl chloride, and polypropylene monthly average price futures will be listed on October 28, 2025, and are open to qualified overseas investors [44]. Bonds - A - share rebound and progress in Sino - US talks led to rising yields in the inter - bank bond market and falling bond futures prices in China. The central bank conducted 189 billion yuan of reverse repurchases and had a net withdrawal of 64.8 billion yuan [46]. - US Treasury yields fell across the board, driven by increased risk aversion and expectations of Fed rate cuts [46]. Foreign Exchange - The on - shore RMB against the US dollar closed at 7.1231 on Monday, up 34 basis points. The central parity rate was 7.0973, down 24 basis points [48]. - The CFETS RMB exchange - rate index and other RMB exchange - rate indices declined in the week of October 17 [48]. - The Reserve Bank of India is taking measures to promote the use of the rupee in trade settlements [48]. - The US dollar index rose 0.07% at the New York close. Most non - US currencies fell, while the Australian dollar and offshore RMB rose [48]. Upcoming Events - At 09:20, 91 billion yuan of reverse repurchases by the People's Bank of China will mature [50]. - At 12:20, Bank of Japan Deputy Governor Ryozo Himino will give a speech [50]. - At 15:00, European Central Bank Chief Economist Philip Lane and President Christine Lagarde will give speeches [50]. - At 21:00, the Federal Reserve will hold a payment innovation meeting, with Governor Christopher Waller giving the opening speech [50]. - At 21:30, European Central Bank Governing Council member Robert Holzmann will give a speech [50]. - The Fourth Plenary Session of the 20th Central Committee of the Communist Party of China is being held from October 20 - 23 [50]. - The APEC Finance Ministers' Meeting is being held until October 22 [50]. - Japan will hold a prime - minister nomination election [50]. - US President Trump will announce major tariff measures against Colombia [50]. - UK Chancellor of the Exchequer Rachel Reeves will hold a regional investment summit [50]. - Jushuitan will be officially listed on the Hong Kong Stock Exchange [50]. - China Telecom, Netflix, Coca - Cola, and General Motors will release their financial reports [50]. - At 03:30 the next day, Fed Governor Christopher Waller will give the closing speech at the Fed's payment innovation meeting [50]. - At 06:00 the next day, German Bundesbank President Joachim Nagel will give a speech [50].

Core Viewpoint - The gold market is experiencing significant volatility driven by geopolitical tensions, economic uncertainty, and expectations of interest rate cuts by the Federal Reserve, leading to a bullish trend in gold prices. Fundamental Analysis - The U.S. government shutdown has heightened market anxiety, with the shutdown lasting 20 days and key economic data like the Consumer Price Index (CPI) being delayed, which amplifies economic uncertainty and boosts safe-haven demand for gold [3]. - There is a strong expectation of a 25 basis point rate cut by the Federal Reserve next week, with a 99% probability, and another cut anticipated in December, driven by potential economic weakness and trade tensions affecting inflation and growth [3]. - Ongoing uncertainties in U.S.-China trade negotiations, despite positive statements from President Trump, continue to support gold prices due to geopolitical risks [3]. - Global economic instability and geopolitical tensions, including developments in Japan and the Eurozone, as well as conflicts in Ukraine and the Middle East, are increasing demand for gold as a safe-haven asset [3]. Technical Analysis - On the daily chart, gold closed with a strong bullish candlestick, recovering from previous declines and indicating a clear bullish momentum, with the 5-day moving average providing solid support [5]. - The immediate resistance level is at 4381, where a failure to maintain above this level could indicate a potential double-top formation, while a successful breakout could lead to further upward movement towards the 4415-4419 resistance zone [5][8]. - Short-term support is identified around the 4280-4270 range, which is crucial for maintaining bullish sentiment; if prices stabilize here, it could present a buying opportunity [8].

Group 1 - The US and Australia have signed a key mineral agreement, with Trump stating that rare earths and minerals will be abundant [11] - The White House announced that Australian pension funds will increase investments in the US by approximately $1 trillion over the next decade [11] - Apple's stock reached a historic high, with its market capitalization approaching $4 trillion [11] Group 2 - The US stock market saw significant gains, with the Dow Jones up 1.12%, S&P 500 up 1.07%, and Nasdaq up 1.37% [3] - The Hang Seng Index closed up 2.42%, with the technology index rising 3% and trading volume reaching HKD 239.16 billion [3][4] - The A-share market experienced a mixed performance, with the Shanghai Composite Index up 0.63% and the Shenzhen Component Index up 0.98% [4] Group 3 - The National Bureau of Statistics reported that China's GDP grew by 5.2% year-on-year in the first three quarters [11] - Ningde Times reported a net profit of 18.5 billion yuan in the third quarter, a year-on-year increase of 41% [11] - The latest loan market quotation rate remained unchanged, with both the one-year and five-year LPR stable [11]

Group 1 - The global market is focusing on US inflation performance and energy inventory changes, with investors reassessing the pace of inflation decline and the Federal Reserve's policy adjustments for the year [1][2] - Key economic events this week include the Federal Reserve's payment innovation meeting, which will address stablecoins, AI, and tokenization, and the release of the US CPI report, which is expected to influence market expectations for interest rate changes [1][2] - The energy market will be influenced by API and EIA inventory data, as well as active drilling counts, which will reveal supply and demand dynamics [2] Group 2 - The CPI report on Friday is the most anticipated data, with potential implications for market expectations regarding interest rate cuts, which could impact the dollar, gold, and risk assets [2] - If core CPI continues to slow, it may strengthen expectations for rate cuts, while persistent inflation could reignite tightening expectations, affecting the dollar and gold prices [2] - Overall, the energy market is expected to oscillate between demand concerns and geopolitical uncertainties, with inventory trends playing a crucial role in oil price movements [2]

Core Insights - Federal Reserve Chairman Jerome Powell indicated that the balance sheet reduction plan may end in the coming months due to rising overnight financing rates, prompting a reassessment of quantitative tightening (QT) progress [2] - The latest Beige Book report from the Federal Reserve shows that overall economic activity in the U.S. has remained stable, with mixed growth across different regions [2] - Bank of Japan (BOJ) Deputy Governor Shinichi Uchida stated that the BOJ will continue to raise interest rates if economic and price trends meet expectations, with a potential increase to 0.75% expected by January [2] Economic Indicators - The U.S. economy is experiencing slight declines in consumer spending and weakened labor demand, with some companies laying off workers due to soft demand and increased investment in artificial intelligence [2] - Wage growth across regions has been moderate, while prices continue to rise due to increased import costs, higher service spending, and tariff impacts [2] - Key upcoming events include China's Q3 GDP release on October 20, a Federal Reserve meeting on payment innovations on October 21, and the U.S. September CPI release on October 24 [3]

Market Overview - The cryptocurrency market is experiencing a significant rally, with Bitcoin rising by 1.58% to $108,695.5 [1] - Ethereum has increased by 2.79%, while Dogecoin has risen by 3.36% [2] Cryptocurrency Performance - Ethereum's market cap is $44.88 billion, reflecting a 6.1% increase [3] - Dogecoin's market cap stands at $1.83 billion, with a notable 9.2% rise [3] - SUI and ENA coins have shown strong performance, increasing by 4.15% and 5.25% respectively [2][3] Liquidation Data - Over the past 24 hours, more than 100,000 traders have been liquidated, totaling $268 million in liquidations [4] - The largest single liquidation occurred on Hyperliquid-BTC, valued at $11.86 million [4] Federal Reserve Developments - The Federal Reserve is set to hold a payment innovation conference on October 21, focusing on stablecoins, AI, and tokenization of real-world assets [6] - Market expectations indicate a 99% probability of a 25 basis point rate cut by the Federal Reserve in October [7]

Cryptocurrency Market Overview - The cryptocurrency market is experiencing a significant rally, with Bitcoin rising by 1.58% to $108,695.5 [1] - Ethereum has increased by 2.79%, while Dogecoin has risen by 3.36%, SUI by 4.15%, and ENA by 5.25% [2] Market Data - Key cryptocurrencies and their performance: - Ethereum (ETH): $3,993, +2.79%, Market Cap: $44.88 billion, +6.1% [3] - Solana (SOL): $188.5, +0.68%, Market Cap: $8.72 billion, +0.3% [3] - XRP: $2.393, +1.45%, Market Cap: $3.54 billion, +1.6% [3] - Dogecoin (DOGE): $0.1958, +3.36%, Market Cap: $1.83 billion, +9.2% [3] - Binance Coin (BNB): $1,113, +1.75%, Market Cap: $1.74 billion, -1.3% [3] - SUI: $2.601, +4.15%, Market Cap: $820 million, +7.0% [3] - ENA: $0.4891, +5.25%, Market Cap: $750 million, +7.6% [3] Liquidation Events - Over the past 24 hours, more than 100,000 traders have been liquidated, totaling $268 million in liquidations, with the largest single liquidation occurring at Hyperliquid-BTC valued at $11.8563 million [4][5] Federal Reserve Developments - The Federal Reserve is set to host a payment innovation conference on October 21, focusing on stablecoins, AI, and tokenization, indicating a significant week for the tokenization of real-world assets [6] - The Federal Open Market Committee will meet on October 28-29, with a 99% probability of a 25 basis point rate cut expected in October [7]

Core Viewpoint - The cryptocurrency market experienced a significant surge, with Bitcoin and other major cryptocurrencies showing notable increases in value, indicating a potential bullish trend in the market [1][3]. Cryptocurrency Market Performance - Bitcoin rose by 1.58%, reaching $108,695.5 [1]. - Ethereum increased by 2.79%, valued at approximately $448.8 billion [4]. - Dogecoin saw a rise of 3.36%, with a market cap of around $18.3 billion [4]. - SUI coin and ENA coin also performed well, increasing by 4.15% and 5.25% respectively [3]. Liquidation and Market Volatility - Over the past 24 hours, more than 100,000 traders experienced liquidations, totaling approximately $26.8 million [5]. - The largest single liquidation occurred on Hyperliquid-BTC, valued at $11.8563 million [5]. - The liquidation data indicates a significant amount of volatility in the market, with a total of $27 million liquidated in the last 24 hours [6]. Federal Reserve Developments - The Federal Reserve is set to hold a payment innovation conference on October 21, focusing on stablecoins, AI, and tokenization of real-world assets [7]. - Market expectations indicate a 99% probability of a 25 basis point rate cut in October, with a 94% chance of a cumulative 50 basis point cut by December [8].

Economic Data - China's GDP for Q3 is expected to show a slight decline in actual year-on-year growth, while nominal GDP growth may improve marginally [7] - Real estate development investment in China for January to September is projected to decrease by 12.9% [3] - Retail sales growth is anticipated to slow down due to the phasing out of the trade-in policy [7] - Industrial value-added growth in September is expected to improve, supported by a rebound in the global manufacturing cycle and the timing of the Mid-Autumn Festival [7] Key Events - The 20th Central Committee of the Communist Party of China will hold its fourth plenary session from October 20 to 23 in Beijing [9] - The 14th National People's Congress Standing Committee's 18th meeting will take place from October 24 to 28 in Beijing [9] - The Federal Reserve will hold a payment innovation conference on October 21 to discuss stablecoins, artificial intelligence, and tokenization [9][10] Corporate Earnings - Major companies set to report earnings include Tesla, IBM, Intel, Coca-Cola, Procter & Gamble, and others in the U.S. market [15] - In the Chinese market, companies like CATL, iFlytek, China Unicom, China Mobile, China Telecom, and Poly Developments will release their latest earnings [15] - CATL's solid-state battery technology roadmap may trigger a reevaluation of the value in the new energy industry if clear mass production signals are released [15] Industry Conferences - The China Solid-State Battery Conference will be held from October 22 to 24 in Hefei, with participation from companies like CATL and Guoxuan High-Tech [13] - The China Low Altitude Economy Innovation Application and Standardization Promotion Conference is scheduled for October 24 in Beijing [15] - The 2025 Satellite Application Conference will take place from October 25 to 27 in Beijing [15]

Core Viewpoint - The article highlights significant upcoming economic data releases and events in China and the U.S., which are expected to influence market trends and investment strategies. Economic Data - China will release key economic indicators on October 20, including GDP, real estate development investment, and retail sales, with expectations of a slight decline in GDP growth rate but potential marginal improvement in nominal GDP growth [9][10]. - The U.S. will release the September CPI on October 24, with expectations of a slight decrease but still at a high level, which will impact the Federal Reserve's upcoming monetary policy decisions [7][8]. Events - The 20th Central Committee of the Communist Party of China will hold its fourth plenary session from October 20 to 23, focusing on major economic and social development issues [14]. - The Federal Reserve will host a payment innovation conference on October 21, discussing stablecoins, artificial intelligence, and tokenization [15][16]. - The 47th ASEAN Summit will take place in Malaysia from October 26 to 28, with U.S. President Trump confirmed to attend [17]. Corporate Earnings - The earnings season is ramping up, with major companies like Tesla, IBM, Intel, Coca-Cola, and others set to report their financial results [27][31]. - Key focus areas include Tesla's Full Self-Driving (FSD) progress, Intel's AI chip orders, and IBM's AI enterprise service transformation [28][29]. Industry Conferences - Several industry conferences are scheduled, including the Solid-State Battery Conference from October 22 to 24, which will feature major players like CATL and Guoxuan High-Tech [20]. - The Low Altitude Economy Innovation Application and Standardization Promotion Conference will be held on October 24 in Beijing [23]. - The 2025 Satellite Application Conference is planned for October 25-27 in Beijing [22].