来源：经济学家圈 2025年诺贝尔经济学奖获得者的贡献及其对我国发展新质生产力的启示 龚六堂 武汉大学高级研究中心 北京大学数量经济与数理金融教育部重点实验室 2025年瑞典皇家科学院宣布，将诺贝尔经济学奖授予乔尔·莫基尔（Joel Mokyr）、菲利普·阿吉翁（Philippe Aghion）和彼得·豪伊特（Peter Howitt），以表 彰他们"阐明了创新驱动的经济增长机制，为理解现代经济繁荣提供了新的理论基础"。这是继2018年授予Paul Romer后再一次授予"增长与创新"这一主 题，表明了诺贝尔经济学奖的重视，也反映出世界经济在经历科技革命、地缘冲突与结构转型之后，对创新与制度动力的新关注。 三位学者的研究共同勾勒出一个宏大的问题：经济增长的持续性从何而来？Mokyr以经济史视角揭示了人类社会技术进步与知识积累的深层逻辑，强调文 化、制度与科学精神对技术扩散的重要作用；Aghion与Howitt则在理论上继承并发展了熊彼特的"创造性破坏"思想，通过建立内生增长模型，解释了创新 如何在竞争中不断替代旧技术、推动生产率提升。他们的工作使经济学能够系统分析创新、竞争、制度与政策之间的互动关系，从而把" ...

Core Points - The 2025 Nobel Prize in Economic Sciences was awarded to Joel Mokyr, Philippe Aghion, and Peter Howitt for their contributions to the theory of innovation-driven economic growth [3] - The prize money amounts to 11 million Swedish Krona, with half awarded to Mokyr for identifying the prerequisites for sustained growth through technological advancement [3] - Aghion and Howitt jointly received the other half for their theory of sustained growth through "creative destruction," which explains how innovation leads to the obsolescence of old products [3] Group 1: Joel Mokyr - Joel Mokyr, born in Leiden, Netherlands, is recognized for his work combining micro-historical data with macro-narratives to explain the onset of modern economic growth post-Industrial Revolution [4][6] - Mokyr argues that the key to sustained growth lies in the systematic questioning of "why" rather than just "how," marking a paradigm shift in human thought [4][22] - His influential book, "A Culture of Growth: The Origins of the Modern Economy," emphasizes the importance of the accumulation of useful knowledge and the interaction of culture, institutions, and cognitive structures [25][26] Group 2: Philippe Aghion - Philippe Aghion, born in Paris, comes from a prominent family and has a strong background in mathematics, which led him to a career in economic research [10][11] - Aghion has been influential in shaping policies that encourage innovation and has argued against the notion that AI will lead to mass unemployment, citing historical trends of job creation following technological revolutions [11][20] - His collaboration with Howitt on the "creative destruction" model has significantly impacted the understanding of economic growth dynamics [13][26] Group 3: Peter Howitt - Peter Howitt, a Canadian economist, is known for his meticulous approach to economic theory and has contributed to the development of macroeconomic models linking micro-innovative activities to macroeconomic growth [12][13] - His partnership with Aghion has led to the formalization of the "creative destruction" concept within economic models, providing a quantitative framework for understanding innovation's role in growth [20][26] - Howitt's work has been recognized in academic circles, and he has been identified as a strong candidate for the Nobel Prize prior to this award [13][20] Group 4: Theoretical Contributions - Mokyr's research highlights that the continuous flow of "useful knowledge" is essential for sustained economic growth, contrasting with the pre-Industrial Revolution reliance on normative knowledge [15][17] - Aghion and Howitt's model illustrates that "creative destruction" is a core driver of economic growth, where new enterprises and jobs replace outdated ones, fostering a dynamic economic environment [20][21] - Their findings suggest that market concentration levels can significantly affect innovation processes, indicating the need for policies to manage monopolistic tendencies in order to sustain growth [21][26]

Core Points - The 2025 Nobel Prize in Economic Sciences is awarded to economists Joel Mokyr, Philippe Aghion, and Peter Howitt for their contributions to the theory of innovation-driven economic growth [1][6] - The total prize amount is 11 million Swedish Krona, approximately 8.25 million RMB, with half awarded to Mokyr and the other half shared between Aghion and Howitt [6] Group 1: Achievements of the Laureates - Joel Mokyr focuses on the economic and knowledge roots of technological progress and its impact on industrialization and social welfare, particularly during the period from 1750 to 1914 [7] - Philippe Aghion is a leading scholar in innovation economics, studying how innovation drives long-term growth and its effects on labor, environment, and finance [7] - Peter Howitt is one of the founders of the modern "Schumpeterian" framework for economic growth, emphasizing the causes and effects of inflation and the role of monetary policy in economic stability [8] Group 2: Impact of Research Findings - The award highlights the importance of innovation in socio-economic development and clarifies the mechanisms linking technological development to sustainable growth [8] - The research outcomes provide guidance for industrial policy and corporate strategic development, especially in the context of the current technological and industrial revolution [8]

Core Insights - The 2025 Nobel Prize in Economic Sciences was awarded to Joel Mokyr, Philippe Aghion, and Peter Howitt for their contributions to understanding innovation-driven economic growth [2][4] - The Nobel Committee emphasized the importance of managing creative destruction constructively to avoid hindering innovation by established companies and interest groups [4] Group 1: Economic Growth and Beliefs - Economic changes in any period heavily depend on people's beliefs, more so than most economists acknowledge [6][7] - Mokyr's work highlights that the Enlightenment era significantly influenced economic outcomes, suggesting that ideology and culture play crucial roles in economic results [6][8] Group 2: Historical Context of Economic Transformation - Between 1700 and 1850, the UK experienced profound economic changes, with the population more than doubling and urbanization increasing significantly [9][11] - By 1850, 45% of the population lived in towns, up from 18% in 1700, indicating a shift towards market dominance in daily economic activities [9][10] Group 3: The Role of Ideas and Intellectual Competition - The competition among intellectuals, scientists, and entrepreneurs during the Industrial Revolution was pivotal in shaping economic development [7][8] - The emergence of dominant ideas often depended on favorable environments, but historical uncertainty and timing also played critical roles in their success [8][9] Group 4: Industrial Revolution and Economic Leadership - The Industrial Revolution marked the beginning of modern economic growth, with the UK becoming the undisputed world economic leader by the time of the Crystal Palace Exhibition in 1851 [10][11] - The period saw a significant transformation in consumption patterns and living standards, with luxury goods becoming accessible to a broader segment of the population [9][10]

Core Insights - The 2025 Nobel Prize in Economic Sciences was awarded to Joel Mokyr, Philippe Aghion, and Peter Howitt for their work on "innovation-driven economic growth" [4][6] - Their research provides a theoretical framework for understanding how technological innovation drives long-term economic growth, which is significant for policymakers and investors assessing the economic impact of technology investments and innovation policies [4][6] Group 1: Award Details - The total prize money for the 2025 Nobel Prize in Economic Sciences is 11 million Swedish Krona, with half awarded to Joel Mokyr and the other half shared between Philippe Aghion and Peter Howitt [6] - Joel Mokyr's research emphasizes the importance of understanding not just the effectiveness of a technology but also the reasons behind its effectiveness, highlighting the need for an open society that embraces new ideas [6][8] Group 2: Theoretical Contributions - Aghion and Howitt developed a mathematical model of "creative destruction," illustrating how new products can lead to the failure of companies selling outdated products, thus emphasizing the dual nature of innovation as both creative and destructive [7][8] - Their endogenous growth model, based on the concept of creative destruction, suggests that quality-enhancing innovations can drive productivity growth by replacing old technologies with new ones [7][8] Group 3: Implications for Economic Growth - The concept of creative destruction must be managed constructively to prevent established companies and interest groups from hindering innovation [8] - The endogenous growth theory is particularly relevant in the context of China's economic transformation, emphasizing the need for an optimized business environment and mechanisms that encourage entrepreneurial spirit [8][9]

Core Insights - The article discusses the delay between the emergence of general-purpose technologies and subsequent economic growth acceleration, questioning why previous technological revolutions did not lead to mass unemployment as feared by historical figures like Ned Ludd and John Maynard Keynes. It also explores the future of the artificial intelligence revolution in terms of job creation versus destruction [1][11]. Group 1: Characteristics of General-Purpose Technologies - General-purpose technologies are characterized by three fundamental features: they spawn numerous secondary waves of innovation, they improve over time leading to reduced user costs, and they become ubiquitous across all sectors of the economy [3][4]. - Secondary innovations are crucial as they adapt general-purpose technologies to specific sector needs, enhancing productivity and serving as a source of long-term growth. However, these innovations require time and resource reallocation, which can temporarily lower GDP growth rates [5][8]. Group 2: Delays in Technology Adoption - There are instances where society may never optimally adopt new technologies due to a lack of secondary innovations or widespread acceptance, leading to missed opportunities for productivity improvements [7]. - The transition from old to new general-purpose technologies often intensifies the process of creative destruction, as new firms can avoid the costs associated with transitioning from outdated technologies [8]. Group 3: Impact on Employment - Historical perspectives reveal that fears of machines destroying jobs have existed for centuries, but technological advancements have often led to positive effects on production, exports, and employment [13][14]. - Automation has been shown to create more jobs than it destroys, with studies indicating that a 1% increase in automation can lead to a 0.25% increase in employment two years later and a 0.4% increase ten years later [15][16]. Group 4: Conclusion on Technological Revolutions - The article challenges two common misconceptions: that technological revolutions inevitably lead to accelerated growth and that they are detrimental to employment. While growth may accelerate, it often requires a time lag, and inappropriate institutional frameworks can hinder the potential benefits of new technologies [17][18].

Core Insights - The 2025 Nobel Prize in Economic Sciences was awarded to Joel Mokyr, Philippe Aghion, and Peter Howitt for their contributions to the understanding of innovation-driven economic growth [1] Group 1: Contributions to Economic Theory - Aghion and Howitt emphasized that technology is the most crucial intermediate product in economic production, and without it, production cannot occur [2] - Entrepreneurs provide the necessary technology, and once an entrepreneur possesses leading technology, they gain market power and can achieve excess profits [2] - The concept of "creative destruction," introduced by Joseph Schumpeter, is central to their work, illustrating how new technologies replace old ones, leading to economic transformation [2] Group 2: Aghion's Academic Background - Aghion has a notable academic career, having taught at Harvard University before returning to France to teach at the Paris School of Economics after his mother's passing [2] - His research is closely linked to societal realities, addressing why economies grow and societies progress [2] Group 3: Gaby Aghion's Influence - Gaby Aghion, founder of the luxury brand Chloé, aimed to liberate women's fashion from rigid designs, promoting clothing that fits women's natural body shapes [3] - Her innovative approach in fashion has inspired many designers, including Karl Lagerfeld, showcasing the impact of creative destruction in the fashion industry [3]

Core Insights - The Nobel Prize in Economic Sciences for 2025 was awarded to Joel Mokyr, Philippe Aghion, and Peter Howitt for their contributions to understanding innovation-driven economic growth [1][4][10] - The prize highlights the importance of maintaining the mechanisms behind creative destruction to avoid economic stagnation [1][4] Group 1: Contributions of Nobel Laureates - Mokyr's research emphasizes the role of "useful knowledge" in driving sustained economic growth, categorizing it into propositional knowledge and procedural knowledge [5][6] - Aghion and Howitt transformed Joseph Schumpeter's "creative destruction" theory into a rigorous mathematical model, explaining the dynamic process of market replacement by innovative products [6][7] Group 2: Economic Growth Challenges - Historical analysis shows that despite significant innovations, sustained economic growth has been difficult to achieve, with notable shifts occurring only in the last two centuries [4][5] - The current global trend of de-globalization and protectionism poses risks to economic growth by limiting market expansion and innovation [7][9] Group 3: Implications of AI and Innovation - AI is expected to accelerate the process of creative destruction, making the discovery of innovative ideas more accessible than ever [7][8] - Aghion warns that poorly designed competition policies could lead to market dominance by "superstar" firms, stifling future innovation [7][8] Group 4: Policy Recommendations - To maximize productivity gains from technological advancements, robust institutional frameworks, including education and labor market policies, are essential [8][9] - The Nobel Prize serves as a reminder of the critical role of technological innovation in driving economic growth, especially in the context of current global economic challenges [9][10]

莫基尔获得诺贝尔经济学奖一半奖金，由于他"揭示了通过技术进步实现持续增长的先决条件"；另 一半奖金由阿吉翁和豪伊特共同获得，他们"提出了通过创造性破坏实现持续增长的理论"。 莫基尔1946年出生，现为美国西北大学教授。阿吉翁1956年出生，现为法兰西学院、欧洲工商管理 学院、伦敦政治经济学院教授。豪伊特1946年出生，现为美国布朗大学教授。 在诺贝尔系列奖项中，经济学奖并非依照已故瑞典化学家阿尔弗雷德·诺贝尔的遗嘱设立，而是由 瑞典国家银行1968年创立，奖金由瑞典国家银行支出。 瑞典皇家科学院当天发表声明说，过去200年，世界经济增长速度空前高涨。其根基在于源源不断 的技术创新；持续的经济增长源于新技术取代旧技术，这一过程被称为"创造性破坏"。今年的诺贝尔经 济学奖得主运用不同的方法，阐释了这一发展模式的成因，以及持续增长的必要条件。 声明说，莫基尔通过研究历史资料，揭示了为何持续增长会成为现代经济的常态。阿吉翁和豪伊特 则研究了持续增长背后的运行机制。 瑞典皇家科学院指出，三位获奖者的研究不仅深化了人们对长期增长的理解，也为当代问题提供了 启示。例如，人工智能的发展有望加速知识积累，但技术进步同时可能带来 ...

Core Viewpoint - The Nobel Prize in Economic Sciences awarded to Joel Mokyr, Philippe Aghion, and Peter Howitt emphasizes the importance of maintaining the mechanisms behind creative destruction to ensure sustained economic growth, highlighting that economic growth is not a given and requires active support [1][4]. Group 1: Contributions of Nobel Laureates - Mokyr's research focuses on the internal logic of sustained growth, categorizing "useful knowledge" into propositional knowledge and procedural knowledge, emphasizing the need for a virtuous cycle of innovation [5][6]. - Aghion and Howitt transformed Schumpeter's theory of "creative destruction" into a rigorous mathematical model, illustrating the dual nature of innovation that both creates and destroys market dynamics [6][7]. Group 2: Challenges to Sustained Growth - Historical analysis shows that despite significant innovations, sustained economic growth was elusive until the last two centuries, with the current economic model being influenced by technological advancements [4][5]. - Aghion warns of the threats posed by protectionist measures and the need for open markets to facilitate economic growth, as these barriers can hinder the necessary exchange of ideas and technologies [7][8]. Group 3: Implications of AI and Technological Change - Aghion highlights that AI could significantly accelerate the process of creative destruction, making innovation more accessible and presenting vast growth potential [7][8]. - The need for well-designed competition policies is crucial to prevent dominant firms from stifling future innovations, as seen in the tech industry [7][8]. Group 4: Policy Recommendations - Aghion suggests that to maximize productivity gains from technological advancements, robust institutional frameworks, including education and labor market policies, are essential [8][9]. - The Nobel Prize serves as a reminder of the critical role of technological innovation in driving economic growth, especially in the context of current global economic challenges [9]. Group 5: Prize Distribution - The total prize amount of 11 million Swedish Krona will be split, with Mokyr receiving half for his contributions to understanding the conditions for sustained growth through technological progress, while Aghion and Howitt will share the other half for their theoretical work on creative destruction [11][12].