CPI环比下降0.1%，主要受服务价格季节性下降影响。服务价格下降0.4%，影响CPI环比下降约0.16个 百分点。其中，节后出行需求季节性回落，宾馆住宿、飞机票、旅行社收费和交通工具租赁费价格分别 下降10.4%、10.2%、6.2%和3.6%，合计影响CPI环比下降约0.13个百分点；房屋租赁进入淡季，房租价 格下降0.2%。受国际油价变动影响，国内汽油价格下降2.2%，影响CPI环比下降约0.07个百分点。扣除 能源的工业消费品价格上涨0.3%，其中受国际金价变动影响国内金饰品价格上涨7.3%，受冬装换季上 新影响服装价格上涨0.8%。食品价格上涨0.5%，高于季节性水平0.9个百分点，主要是鲜菜价格上涨影 响。部分地区降雨降温影响鲜菜生产储运，鲜菜价格上涨7.2%，远高于平均下降3.2%的季节性水平， 影响CPI环比上涨约0.17个百分点；市场供应较为充足，猪肉、鸡蛋和水产品价格分别下降2.2%、2.1% 和1.8%，合计影响CPI环比下降约0.07个百分点。 11月份，居民消费持续恢复，居民消费价格指数（CPI）环比略降0.1%，同比上涨0.7%，扣除食品和能 源价格的核心CPI同比上涨1.2%。受 ...

国家统计局数据显示， 2025年11月份，全国居民消费价格同比上涨0.7%。 其中，城市上涨0.7%，农村上涨0.4%；食品价格上涨 0.2%，非食品价格上涨0.8%；消费品价格上涨0.6%，服务价格上涨0.7%。1—11月平均，全国居民消费价格与上年同期持平。 11月份，全国居民消费价格环比下降0.1%。其中，城市下降0.1%，农村持平；食品价格上涨0.5%，非食品价格下降0.2%；消费品价格上 涨0.1%，服务价格下降0.4%。 一、各类商品及服务价格同比变动情况 11月份，食品烟酒类价格同比上涨0.3%，影响CPI（居民消费价格指数）上涨约0.09个百分点。食品中，鲜菜价格上涨14.5%，影响CPI上 涨约0.31个百分点；水产品价格上涨1.5%，影响CPI上涨约0.03个百分点；鲜果价格上涨0.7%，影响CPI上涨约0.01个百分点；蛋类价格 下降12.5%，影响CPI下降约0.08个百分点；畜肉类价格下降6.6%，影响CPI下降约0.20个百分点，其中猪肉价格下降15.0%，影响CPI下 降约0.21个百分点；粮食价格下降0.4%，影响CPI下降约0.01个百分点。 其他七大类价格同比五涨一平一降。 ...

Group 1: CPI Analysis - The Consumer Price Index (CPI) increased by 0.7% year-on-year, marking the highest growth since March 2024, with a rise of 0.5 percentage points from the previous month [2] - Food prices shifted from a decline of 2.9% to an increase of 0.2%, contributing positively to the CPI, with fresh vegetable prices rising by 14.5% after nine months of decline [2] - Core CPI, excluding food and energy, rose by 1.2%, maintaining above 1% for three consecutive months, driven by increases in service prices and industrial consumer goods [2][3] Group 2: PPI Analysis - The Producer Price Index (PPI) increased by 0.1% month-on-month, marking two consecutive months of growth, influenced by seasonal demand increases in certain domestic industries [4] - Year-on-year, the PPI decreased by 2.2%, with the decline slightly widening by 0.1 percentage points compared to the previous month, primarily due to high comparison bases from the previous year [6] - The prices in key industries such as coal mining and photovoltaic equipment manufacturing showed a narrowing decline, indicating improvements in market competition and policy effectiveness [6]

Group 1 - The Consumer Price Index (CPI) increased by 0.7% year-on-year in November, the highest since March 2024, primarily driven by a turnaround in food prices from a decline to an increase [2] - Core CPI, excluding food and energy, rose by 1.2% year-on-year, maintaining above 1% for three consecutive months, indicating sustained inflationary pressure in the economy [2][3] - Food prices shifted from a decrease of 2.9% to an increase of 0.2%, with fresh vegetable prices rising by 14.5%, marking the first increase after nine months of decline [2] Group 2 - The Producer Price Index (PPI) increased by 0.1% month-on-month, marking the second consecutive month of growth, driven by seasonal demand increases in certain domestic industries [4] - Year-on-year, PPI decreased by 2.2%, with the decline slightly widening due to high comparison bases from the previous year [5] - The prices in key industries such as coal mining and photovoltaic equipment manufacturing showed a narrowing of year-on-year declines, reflecting improvements in market competition and regulatory measures [5][6]

二、PPI环比继续上涨，同比降幅略有扩大 PPI环比上涨0.1%，连续两个月上涨。本月PPI环比运行的主要特点：一是国内部分行业需求季节性增加带动其价格上涨。各地"迎峰度冬"开 始，煤炭、燃气需求季节性增加，煤炭开采和洗选业价格环比上涨4.1%，煤炭加工价格上涨3.4%，燃气生产和供应业价格上涨0.7%。入冬以 来，防寒保暖产品进入消费旺季，毛织造加工价格上涨0.6%，羽绒制品加工价格上涨0.2%。二是输入性因素影响国内有色金属和石油相关行 业价格走势分化。国际有色金属价格上行带动国内有色金属矿采选业价格环比上涨2.6%，有色金属冶炼和压延加工业价格上涨2.1%，其中铜 冶炼、金冶炼、铝冶炼价格分别上涨2.9%、1.4%和0.2%。国际油价下行影响国内石油和天然气开采业价格下降2.4%，精炼石油产品制造价格 下降2.2%。 PPI同比下降2.2%，降幅比上月扩大0.1个百分点，主要受上年同期对比基数走高影响。我国各项宏观政策不断显效，价格呈现积极变化。一 是综合整治"内卷式"竞争成效显现，相关行业价格同比降幅收窄。重点行业产能治理持续推进，市场竞争秩序不断优化，煤炭开采和洗选 业、光伏设备及元器件制造、锂离子 ...

Summary of Japan Economic Comment: Outlook for 2026-2027 Industry Overview - **Industry**: Japanese Economy - **Focus**: Inflation trends, particularly food and service inflation, and their impact on the Consumer Price Index (CPI) Key Points Inflation Trends - **Food Inflation**: - Food inflation peaked in July 2023 and is expected to decelerate until mid-2026, with core-core CPI projected to decline from 3.0% in 2025 to 2.1% in 2026, largely due to food inflation contributing -0.8 percentage points to the total deceleration [1][2] - Rice inflation fell from a peak of 102% YoY in May to 40% in October 2023, with expectations of reaching 0% YoY by April 2024 [2] - **Service Inflation**: - Underlying service inflation is expected to stabilize around 2% YoY, with current headline service inflation at 1.6%, impacted by government policies such as free high school tuition [3] - The introduction of free tuition for private high schools and free elementary school lunches is anticipated to exert downward pressure on service CPI in FY2026, estimated to impact service CPI by 60 basis points [3] Wage Growth and Its Impact - **Wage Outlook**: - A slowdown in wage growth is expected during the 2026 Shunto negotiations, decreasing from 3.7% in FY2025 to 3.2% [4] - Core wages are projected to decline from 2.5% year-to-date in FY2025 to around 2.3%, leading to service inflation remaining slightly below 2% [4] Core CPI Projections - **Core CPI**: - Expected to slow to 1.7% YoY in CY2026, influenced by government policies such as the abolition of the provisional gasoline tax and the introduction of electricity and gas subsidies, which will lower energy prices [5] - Core CPI is projected to stabilize around 2% beyond 2026, with estimates of 1.9% in 2027 and 2.0% in 2028 [5] Risks and Uncertainties - **Food Disinflation Risks**: - The pace of food disinflation remains uncertain, particularly due to recent JPY depreciation, which poses upside risks to food prices [2] - **Government Policy Effects**: - The impact of government interventions on CPI is significant, with estimates indicating a reduction of core CPI by 0.63 basis points due to subsidies [33][5] Economic Outlook - **GDP Growth**: - Real GDP growth is projected at 0.9% for 2025, 1.2% for 2026, and 1.0% for 2027, indicating a stable economic environment [46] - **Inflation Expectations**: - Inflation expectations are anticipated to remain stable at around 2% beyond 2026, supported by rising output gaps and wage growth [46] Additional Insights - **Housing Rent**: - Housing rent rose by 0.4% YoY in October 2023, marking the highest increase since 2005, which significantly impacts core CPI and service CPI [25] - **Consumer Confidence**: - Consumer confidence is rebounding, partly due to slowing food inflation, which may positively influence private consumption [67] This summary encapsulates the key insights from the Japan Economic Comment, focusing on inflation trends, wage growth, core CPI projections, and the overall economic outlook for Japan through 2026-2027.

炒股就看金麒麟分析师研报，权威，专业，及时，全面，助您挖掘潜力主题机会！ 本报记者 孟 珂 国家统计局12月10日将发布11月份居民消费价格指数（CPI）和工业生产者出厂价格指数（PPI）月度报 告，《证券日报》记者近日采访了多位业内专家，对数据进行前瞻。 在CPI方面，民生银行首席经济学家温彬在接受《证券日报》记者采访时表示，预计11月份CPI环比上 涨0.1%，同比上涨0.9%；兴业银行首席经济学家鲁政委也认为，11月份CPI同比或上涨0.9%，较10月份 上升0.7个百分点。 分析原因，温彬表示，从食品价格来看，11月份农产品批发价格200指数均值环比上涨4.4%。其中，由 于气温降低，蔬菜、水果供应量下降、运输难度与成本增加，价格分别环比上涨10.1%、1.3%；产能释 放叠加市场需求偏弱，猪肉、鸡蛋价格承压，环比分别下降0.6%、2.3%。能源价格方面，11月10日国 内成品油价格上调后，因全球原油供应过剩预期加剧、地缘风险溢价削减等因素影响国际油价波动下 行，又于24日下调，整体来看涨幅高于跌幅，从而带动能源价格上涨。 在鲁政委看来，消费品方面，11月份食品价格回升，CPI同比增速有望回升。11月 ...

Group 1: CPI Insights - The Consumer Price Index (CPI) for November is expected to show a month-on-month increase of 0.1% and a year-on-year increase of 0.9% [1] - Food prices are a significant factor, with wholesale agricultural product prices rising by an average of 4.4% month-on-month in November, driven by lower supply and increased transportation costs [1] - The price of vegetables and fruits increased by 10.1% and 1.3% respectively due to seasonal factors, while pork and egg prices faced downward pressure, decreasing by 0.6% and 2.3% respectively [1][2] Group 2: Core CPI and Service Sector - The core CPI is expected to see a decline, influenced by a service sector business activity index of 49.5%, which is lower than the previous month [2] - The housing market is entering a traditional off-season, with average rental prices in 50 cities decreasing by 0.6% month-on-month and 3.6% year-on-year [2] Group 3: PPI Insights - The Producer Price Index (PPI) is anticipated to rise by 0.2% month-on-month but decrease by 2.0% year-on-year [2][3] - Industrial product prices are generally declining, with notable decreases in glass prices by 7.1% and in coking coal and coke prices by 2.7% and 2.0% respectively [2] - Some industrial commodities like aluminum and copper saw slight increases of 1.3% and 1.0% month-on-month [2]

Core Insights - The article discusses the outlook for domestic inflation in 2026, focusing on the core Consumer Price Index (CPI) and Producer Price Index (PPI) trends, highlighting the need for effective fiscal policies to stimulate demand and support price recovery [2][3][4]. Group 1: Core CPI Analysis - The core CPI has recently returned to the 1% range, indicating a positive signal, but this is attributed to specific factors rather than a broad recovery in domestic demand [2]. - The sustainability of "old momentum" is questioned, with expectations for increased fiscal support in 2026, particularly towards the service sector, but concerns about diminishing multiplier effects are raised [2][3]. - The direction of the price base is contingent on effective fiscal spending to create a positive demand cycle, emphasizing the need for structural changes in fiscal policy rather than mere continuation of existing measures [3]. Group 2: 2026 Inflation Projections - It is anticipated that the core CPI will shift focus from physical consumption driven by "trade-in" policies in 2025 to the recovery elasticity of "service CPI" in 2026, dependent on effective domestic demand policies [4]. - The PPI is expected to experience a recovery influenced by the interplay between real estate sector challenges and supply-side reforms, with potential for gradual improvements as policies are implemented [4].

Core Viewpoint - Japan's core CPI rose by 3.0% year-on-year in October, driven by rising food prices, increasing expectations for the central bank to raise policy rates soon to curb inflation [1] Group 1: Inflation and Economic Indicators - The nationwide price level, excluding volatile fresh food, increased compared to the previous month, following a 2.9% rise in September, highlighting the negative impact of the sharp depreciation of the yen on import costs [1] - Since April 2022, this key inflation indicator has remained at or above the Bank of Japan's target of 2% [1] Group 2: Central Bank Policy - The Bank of Japan has emphasized the importance of normalizing interest rates to ensure price stability [1] Group 3: Economic Dependency - Japan, being resource-poor, heavily relies on imports to meet its food and energy needs [1]