Report Investment Rating - There is no information about the industry investment rating provided in the report. Core Viewpoint - The international pulp mills' latest round of price cuts for imported hardwood pulp and the inventory build - up at European ports create short - term negative impacts on the market. Domestically, the prices of base paper are weak, and paper mills mainly purchase at low prices based on rigid demand. Attention should be paid to the demand recovery progress. A rebound in the downstream operating load rate may boost industry expectations to some extent. There is also support from the cost side below. It is advisable to monitor the stabilization of the market and wait for long - entry opportunities [32]. Summary by Directory 1. This Week's Market Review - This week, the main contract of pulp futures, SP2507, rebounded from a low level [7]. 2. Fundamental Analysis - **Pulp Market Price**: As of May 8, the weekly average price of imported softwood pulp was 5,960 yuan/ton, down 2.55% from the previous week before the holiday, with the decline rate widening by 1.59 percentage points compared to the previous period. The weekly average price of imported hardwood pulp was 4,175 yuan/ton, down 3.45% from the previous week before the holiday, with the decline rate widening by 1.34 percentage points. The improvement in downstream demand was poor. Base paper enterprises mainly made purchases at low prices, the shipment speed slowed down, and the pulp market transactions were difficult to increase [13]. - **Pulp Import Volume**: In March 2025, China imported 3.249 million tons of pulp, with an import value of 2.0042 billion US dollars and an average unit price of 616.87 US dollars/ton. The cumulative import volume and value from January to March increased by 5% and 4.9% respectively compared to the same period last year. In March 2025, the import volume of softwood pulp was 797,600 tons, a month - on - month decrease of 0.07% and a year - on - year decrease of 6.47%. The import volume of hardwood pulp in March was 1.4699 million tons, a month - on - month decrease of 8.47% and a year - on - year increase of 22.19% [16]. - **Port Inventory**: As of May 8, 2025, the weekly pulp inventory in major Chinese regions and ports was 1.9731 million tons, down 3.33% from the previous week, with the decline rate widening by 0.63 percentage points compared to the previous week [18]. - **European Inventory in March**: According to Europulp data, in March 2025, the total inventory at European ports increased by 7.60% month - on - month and 25.96% compared to March 2024. Only the inventory at German ports decreased by 9.30% month - on - month. Overall, the inventory at most European ports increased month - on - month, driving the total inventory at European ports to increase in March [21]. 3. Future Outlook - Arauco of Chile adjusted its pulp export quotes for April 2025. The price of softwood pulp (Silver Star) was lowered by 55 US dollars/ton to 770 US dollars/ton, the price of natural pulp (Venus) was lowered by 40 US dollars/ton to 650 US dollars/ton, and the price of hardwood pulp (Star) was lowered by 70 US dollars/ton to 560 US dollars/ton, a significant reduction compared to the previous round of quotes. Considering the foreign inventory situation, the overall inventory at European ports increased in March 2025. The price cuts of imported hardwood pulp by international pulp mills and the inventory build - up at European ports create short - term negative impacts on the market. Domestically, the prices of base paper are weak, and paper mills mainly purchase at low prices based on rigid demand. Attention should be paid to the demand recovery progress. A rebound in the downstream operating load rate may boost industry expectations to some extent. There is also support from the cost side below. It is advisable to monitor the stabilization of the market and wait for long - entry opportunities [32].

Report Information - Report Title: Pulp Daily Report [1] - Date: May 8, 2025 [2] - Research Team: Energy and Chemical Research Team [4] 1. Investment Rating - No investment rating information is provided in the report. 2. Core View - The pulp market is under pressure due to a significant reduction in cost support, a loose supply situation, and weak demand, resulting in an overall weak fundamental pattern [8]. 3. Summary by Section 3.1. Market Review and Operation Suggestions - The previous settlement price of the pulp futures 09 contract was 5,030 yuan/ton, and the closing price was 5,086 yuan/ton, showing an overall decline of 1.90%. The intended transaction price range of softwood pulp in the Shandong wood pulp market was 5,150 - 6,800 yuan/ton, with the low - end price rising by 50 yuan/ton compared to the previous trading day's closing price. The Shandong Yinxing was quoted at 6,200 - 6,220 yuan/ton [7]. - Chile's Arauco adjusted its April quotes. The softwood pulp Yinxing was priced at 770 US dollars/ton, and the hardwood pulp Mingxing was priced at 560 US dollars/ton, showing a significant decrease from the previous period. European port data indicated that the total European port inventory increased by 7.60% month - on - month and 25.96% compared to March 2024. Except for the German port, which decreased month - on - month, most other national port inventories increased month - on - month. The total pulp imports in March were 3.25 million tons, a month - on - month increase of 0.9% and a year - on - year increase of 2.5%. As of April 30, 2025, the weekly pulp inventory in major domestic regions and ports decreased by 2.12% month - on - month, and the shipping speeds of each port still varied, with relatively concentrated arrivals at Gaolan Port [8]. 3.2. Industry News - On May 7, it was reported that the first - phase construction of the Hubei Hanhui Cultural Paper Products Base Project in Huangpi District, Wuhan, Hubei, is to be delivered this year. The project has a total investment of 600 million yuan, covers about 30 mu of land, and mainly customizes, processes, and sells various paper products such as pearl paper, specialty paper, and cultural paper. After the first - phase is completed and reaches production capacity, the annual output value is expected to exceed 100 million yuan, and about 100 new jobs will be created. Currently, 60% of the main structures of the two main buildings have been completed, and the structural topping is expected to be achieved in early June. The second - phase project is also about to start construction, with a planned land area of about 15 mu, focusing on the production and export of specialty paper. It is expected to be completed in June 2026, and after full completion and reaching production capacity, the annual output value can reach over 300 million yuan [9]. 3.3. Data Overview - The report presents multiple data charts, including import softwood pulp spot prices in Shandong, pulp futures prices, pulp futures - spot price differences, softwood - hardwood price differences, inter - delivery spread, warehouse receipt volume, domestic main port pulp inventory, European main port wood pulp inventory, prices and spreads of coated paper, offset paper, white cardboard, and whiteboard paper, and the US dollar - RMB exchange rate [7][13][18]

1. Report Industry Investment Rating No relevant content provided. 2. Core Viewpoints of the Report The industry inventory is at a high level, and the downstream demand is in the off - season. The fundamentals are difficult to drive. It is expected that the main pulp futures contract will mainly fluctuate in the range of 5260 - 5520 this week [4]. 3. Summary According to the Table of Contents 3.1 Pulp Price Analysis - **Spot Pulp Price Review** - Last week, the spot market price of pulp showed a trend of stable softwood pulp and weak hardwood pulp. The prices of softwood pulps such as Silver Star, Cariboo, and Northern Wood in Shandong remained unchanged. The prices of hardwood pulps like Goldfish, Bird, and Alpine decreased, with declines ranging from 2.25% - 3.41% [10]. - The prices of chemical mechanical pulp, natural pulp, and non - wood pulp in Shandong remained stable. The prices of chemical mechanical pulp Kunhe, natural pulp Venus, sugarcane pulp in South China, bamboo pulp in Southwest China, and reed pulp in Northeast China were all unchanged compared with the previous week [13]. - **Pulp Futures Price Review** - Last week, the main pulp futures contract SP2507 fluctuated horizontally within a range of about 110 points. It finally closed at 5376 yuan/ton, up 14 yuan/ton (or +0.26%) for the week. The trading volume was 950,000 lots, an increase of 195,000 lots compared with the previous week, and the open interest was 122,000 lots, a decrease of 22,200 lots [15]. - **Pulp Futures - Spot Basis Comparison** - Due to the fact that the increase in the spot price of wood pulp was slightly smaller than the increase in the pulp futures price last week, the futures - spot basis discount slightly decreased. The basis discount between softwood pulp and the closing price of the main futures contract was 974 yuan/ton, a reduction of 14 yuan/ton compared with the previous week [19]. - **Log Futures Price Review** - The main log futures contract 2507 showed a downward - fluctuating trend last week. It finally closed at 796.0 yuan/cubic meter, a decrease of 26.0 yuan/cubic meter (or - 3.16%) compared with the previous week's closing price. The trading volume was 136,000 lots, an increase of 77,200 lots compared with the previous week, and the open interest was 31,200 lots, an increase of 5,400 lots [21]. 3.2 Pulp Supply - Side Analysis - **Weekly Pulp Production** - Last week, the pulp production was 465,900 tons, a week - on - week increase of 4,300 tons (or +0.93%). Among them, the hardwood pulp production was 181,700 tons, a week - on - week increase of 6,100 tons (or +3.47%), and the chemical mechanical pulp production was 202,900 tons, a week - on - week decrease of 1,200 tons (or - 0.59%). It is expected that the domestic hardwood pulp production this week will be about 201,000 tons, and the chemical mechanical pulp production will be about 200,000 tons [23]. - **Capacity Utilization Rate** - Last week, the capacity utilization rate of domestic hardwood pulp was 67.16%, a week - on - week increase of 2.28%, and the capacity utilization rate of domestic chemical mechanical pulp was 85.03%, a week - on - week decrease of 0.50% [26]. - In March 2025, the capacity utilization rate of domestic hardwood pulp was 81.59%, a month - on - month decrease of 1.65%, and the capacity utilization rate of chemical mechanical pulp was 84.39%, a month - on - month increase of 2.17% [33]. - **Monthly Pulp Production** - In March 2025, the domestic pulp production was 2.213 million tons, a month - on - month increase of 231,500 tons (or +11.68%); the wood pulp production was 1.8549 million tons, a month - on - month increase of 182,000 tons (or +10.88%); the hardwood pulp production was 977,800 tons, a month - on - month increase of 76,800 tons (or +8.52%); the chemical mechanical pulp production was 877,200 tons, a month - on - month increase of 105,200 tons (or +13.63%) [28]. - **Production Profit** - In March 2025, the production profit of hardwood pulp was 1,300.05 yuan/ton, a month - on - month decrease of 38.91 yuan/ton (or - 2.91%), and a year - on - year decrease of 705.72 yuan/ton (or - 35.18%); the production profit of chemical mechanical pulp was - 213.61 yuan/ton, a month - on - month decrease of 0.99 yuan/ton [34]. - **Pulp Imports** - In March 2025, the pulp import volume was 3.2491 million tons, a month - on - month increase of 29,100 tons (or +0.9%), and a year - on - year increase of 79,100 tons (or +2.50%). From January to March 2025, the cumulative import volume was 9.64 million tons, a year - on - year increase of 450,000 tons (or +5%) [37]. 3.3 Pulp Demand - Side Analysis - **Downstream Market Capacity Utilization and Production** - **Living Paper Market**: Last week, the domestic living paper production was 293,000 tons, a week - on - week decrease of 3,000 tons (or - 1.01%); the capacity utilization rate was 66.4%, a week - on - week decrease of 0.7%. In March 2025, the domestic living paper production was 1.318 million tons, a month - on - month increase of 122,000 tons (or +10.2%), and a year - on - year increase of 140,400 tons (or +11.92%); the capacity utilization rate was 69.6%, a month - on - month increase of 6.4% [40][60]. - **Cultural Paper Market**: Last week, the copperplate paper production was 78,000 tons, a week - on - week increase of 1,000 tons (or +1.30%); the capacity utilization rate was 57.4%, a week - on - week increase of 0.3%. The offset paper production was 196,100 tons, a week - on - week increase of 100 tons (or +0.05%); the capacity utilization rate was 56.8%, a week - on - week increase of 0.1%. In March 2025, the domestic cultural paper offset paper production was 862,000 tons, a month - on - month increase of 120,000 tons (or +16.17%), and a year - on - year decrease of 84,000 tons (or - 8.88%); the capacity utilization rate was 56.41%, a month - on - month increase of 1.51%. The copperplate paper production was 344,000 tons, a month - on - month increase of 48,000 tons (or +16.22%), and a year - on - year decrease of 46,000 tons (or - 11.79%); the capacity utilization rate was 57.31%, a month - on - month increase of 2.71% [44][63]. - **Packaging Paper Market**: - **White Cardboard and White Board Paper**: Last week, the white cardboard production was 307,000 tons, a week - on - week decrease of 1,000 tons (or - 0.32%); the capacity utilization rate was 74.88%, a week - on - week decrease of 0.24%. The white board paper production was 201,000 tons, a week - on - week decrease of 2,000 tons (or - 0.99%); the capacity utilization rate was 71.28%, a week - on - week decrease of 0.71%. In March 2025, the domestic white cardboard production was 1.147 million tons, a month - on - month increase of 273,000 tons (or +23.85%), and a year - on - year increase of 10,000 tons (or +0.71%); the capacity utilization rate was 82.5%, a month - on - month increase of 11.6% [47][60]. - **Corrugated Paper and Box Board Paper**: Last week, the corrugated paper production was 459,000 tons, a week - on - week increase of 11,000 tons (or +2.46%); the capacity utilization rate was 61.5%, a week - on - week increase of 1.6%. The box board paper production was 618,000 tons, a week - on - week increase of 1,000 tons (or +0.16%); the capacity utilization rate was 68.1%, a week - on - week increase of 0.1% [50]. - **Downstream Base Paper Spot Price Analysis** - **Living Paper and Cultural Paper**: Last week, in the living paper market, the price of wood pulp large - roll base paper in Shandong decreased by 200 yuan/ton (or - 3.13%), and the price of bamboo pulp large - roll base paper in Sichuan decreased by 100 yuan/ton (or - 1.52%). In the cultural paper market, the price of 70g Chenming Yunbao offset paper in Shandong decreased by 50 yuan/ton (or - 0.93%), and the price of 157g Chenming Xuelu copperplate paper decreased by 200 yuan/ton (or - 1.52%) [53]. - **White Board Paper and White Cardboard**: Last week, in the white board paper market, the prices of Taicang Jiulong 240g Jianglong white board paper in Shandong and Tianjin Jiulong 250g Dilong white board paper decreased. In the white cardboard market, the prices of Jiangsu Bohui 250 - 400g Red - crowned Crane and Wanguo Taiyang 250 - 400g Wanguo Sun remained unchanged [55]. - **Box Board Paper and Corrugated Paper**: Last week, the prices of box board paper and corrugated paper in Shandong remained stable [57]. - **Domestic Pulp Consumption** - In March 2025, the predicted consumption of domestic pulp was 3.4 million tons, the predicted demand was 3.415 million tons, and the actual announced consumption was 3.441 million tons, a month - on - month increase of 476,000 tons (or +16.05%) [65]. 3.4 Pulp Inventory - Side Analysis - **Pulp Port Inventory** - Last week, the overall domestic port inventory showed an accumulation trend. The inventory of mainstream port samples was 2.106 million tons, a week - on - week increase of 37,000 tons (or +1.79%). Among them, the inventory in Qingdao Port was 1.347 million tons, a week - on - week decrease of 11,000 tons (or - 0.81%). The inventory in Changshu Port was 558,000 tons, a week - on - week increase of 41,000 tons (or +7.93%), and the inventory in Tianjin Port was 76,000 tons, a week - on - week increase of 6,000 tons (or +8.57%) [70][73]. - **Futures Pulp Warehouse Receipts** - Last week, the pulp futures warehouse receipts were 325,600 tons, a week - on - week decrease of 15,126 tons (or - 4.44%). The total warehouse receipts in Shandong were 281,800 tons, a week - on - week decrease of 15,126 tons (or - 5.09%) [74].

国信期货研究 Page 1 国信期货纸浆月报 探底回升，关注需求恢复情况 纸浆 2025 年 04 月 27 日 主要结论 进口方面，据中华人民共和国海关总署数据显示，2025 年 3 月，我国进口 纸浆 324.9 万吨，进口金额为 2004.2 百万美元，平均单价为 616.87 美元/吨。 1-3 月累计进口量及金额较去年同期分别增加 5%、4.9%。其中 2025 年 3 月针叶 浆进口量 79.76 万吨，环比减少 0.07%，同比减少 6.47%；3 月阔叶浆进口量 146.99 万吨，环比减少 8.47%，同比增加 22.19%。 港口库存方面，国内纸浆港口库存环比仍处上升趋势，但涨速有所降低。据 卓创资讯数据监测显示，截至 2025 年 4 月 24 日，保定地区、天津港、日照港、 青岛港、常熟港、上海港、高栏港及南沙港等中国主要地区及港口周度纸浆库存 量 209.78 万吨，环比上升 0.88%，涨幅收窄 3.20 个百分点。 分析师：黎静宜 从业资格号：F3082440 投资咨询号：Z0019052 电话：021-55007766-305180 邮箱：15561@guosen.com.cn ...

3 后市展望 目 录 CONTENTS 研究所 2025年4月20日 研究所 需求拖累，盘面反弹回落 ——国信期货纸浆周报 1 本周行情回顾 2 基本面分析 研究所 分 t1 行情回顾 一、本周行情回顾 研究所 第 P 一 a 部 r 本周纸浆期货主力合约完成移仓换月，SP2507反弹回落，盘面仍然偏弱运行。 免责声明：本报告以投资者教育为目的，不构成任何投资建议。 数据来源：文华财经 国信期货 4 近期纸浆市场价格偏稳运行，一方面下游原纸企业采购积极性改善欠佳，原纸市场价格持续偏弱运行；另一方面，外盘报价多轮提涨，成本端亦有一定支撑 。 免责声明：本报告以投资者教育为目的，不构成任何投资建议。 数据来源：Choice 国信期货 6 研究所 第 P 二 a 部 r 分 t2 基本面分析 二、基本面分析：纸浆市场价格 研究所 研究所 二、基本面分析：纸浆进口量增加 据中华人民共和国海关总署数据显示，2025年1-2月，我国共进口纸浆638.9万吨，进口金额为3990.3百万美元，平均单价为624.56美元/吨。1月至2 月累计进口量及金额较去年同期分别增加6.1%、8%。2月针叶浆进口量79.82万吨，环比增加 ...

Group 1: Report Overview - Report Title: Pulp Morning Report [1] - Research Team: Energy and Chemicals Team of the Research Center [1] - Report Date: April 10, 2025 [1] Group 2: SP Main Contract Information - Closing Price on April 9, 2025: 5202.00 [2] - Closing Prices and Changes in Recent Days: - April 9: 5202.00, -4.41014% from the previous day [2] - April 8: 5442.00, 1.52985% [2] - April 7: 5360.00, -3.45821% [2] - April 3: 5552.00, -2.11566% [2] - April 2: 5672.00, 0.60305% [2] - Converted US Dollar Prices: - April 9: 617.92 [2] - April 8: 647.96 [2] - April 7: 639.98 [2] - April 3: 664.17 [2] - April 2: 681.74 [2] - Basis Information: - Shandong Yinxing Basis: April 9 - 1223; April 8 - 1008; April 7 - 1090; April 3 - 923; April 2 - 828 [2] - Jiangsu, Zhejiang, and Shanghai Yinxing Basis: April 9 - 1248; April 8 - 1023; April 7 - 1105; April 3 - 938; April 2 - 853 [2] Group 3: Pulp Price and Profit Information - Pulp Prices and Import Profits: - Canada - Jinshi (CFR): Port US Dollar Price 840, Shandong RMB Price 6880, Import Profit -146.62 [2] - Canada - Xiongshi (CFR): Port US Dollar Price 820, Shandong RMB Price 6000, Import Profit -790.51 [2] - Chile - Yinxing (CFR, 90 - day letter of credit): Port US Dollar Price 825, Shandong RMB Price 6425, Import Profit -497.04 [2] Group 4: Pulp Average Price Information - National and Shandong Average Pulp Prices (April 2 - April 9): - National: Coniferous Pulp - 6073.75; Broad - leaf Pulp - 4810.75; Natural Pulp - 5415.00; Chemimechanical Pulp - 3686.25 [2] - Shandong: Coniferous Pulp - 6245.00; Broad - leaf Pulp - 4775.00; Natural Pulp - 5400.00; Chemimechanical Pulp - 3600.00 [2] - Price Changes: All 0.00 [2] Group 5: Paper Index and Profit Margin Information - Paper Index Information (April 3 - April 9): - Cultural Paper: Double - offset Index - 5725; Double - copper Index - 5670 [2] - Packaging Paper: White Card Index - 4350 [2] - Living Paper: Living Index - April 3 - 896, April 7 - 894, April 8 - 891, April 9 - 896 [2] - Paper Index Changes: All 0 [2] - Paper Profit Margin Estimation and Changes: - Double - offset Profit Margin: April 3 - 8.2110%, April 7 - 8.7982%, April 8 - 8.2130%, April 9 - 8.5981%, Change 0.3851 [2] - Double - copper Profit Margin: April 3 - 24.3804%, April 7 - 24.8370%, April 8 - 25.0326%, April 9 - 24.6776%, Change - 0.3550 [2] - White Card Profit Margin: April 3 - -11.7442%, April 7 - -11.3372%, April 8 - -11.1628%, April 9 - -10.8953%, Change 0.2675 [2] - Living Paper Profit Margin: April 3 - 7.0231%, April 7 - 6.2483%, April 8 - 7.2023%, April 9 - 7.9797%, Change 0.7774 [2] Group 6: Pulp Price Difference Information - Pulp Price Differences (April 2 - April 9): - Coniferous - Broad - leaf Price Difference: April 9 - 1875.00; April 8 - 1850; April 7 - 1800; April 3 - 1825; April 2 - 1850 [2] - Coniferous - Natural Price Difference: April 9 - 1025; April 8 - 1050; April 7 - 1050; April 3 - 1075; April 2 - 1100 [2] - Coniferous - Chemimechanical Price Difference: April 9 - 2550; April 8 - 2575; April 7 - 2575; April 3 - 2600; April 2 - 2625 [2] - Coniferous - Waste Paper Price Difference: April 9 - 4849; April 8 - 4874; April 7 - 4874; April 3 - 4899; April 2 - 4924 [2]

Group 1: Report Overview - Report Type: Pulp Daily Report [1] - Date: April 2, 2024 [2] - Research Team: Energy and Chemical Research Team [4] Group 2: Market Review and Operation Suggestions Market Review - Futures Contracts: SP2505, SP2509, and SP2601 showed price declines of -1.02%, -0.90%, and -0.47% respectively. The main contract of pulp futures dropped 1.02% from the previous settlement price of 5,696 yuan/ton to a closing price of 5,638 yuan/ton. [7] - Spot Market: The intended transaction price range of softwood pulp in the Shandong wood pulp market was 5,580 - 6,900 yuan/ton, with the low - end price down 40 yuan/ton from the previous day. The price of Shandong Silver Star was 6,480 - 6,500 yuan/ton. [7] Operation Suggestions - Cost Support: Suzano announced a $20/ton increase in the price of eucalyptus hardwood pulp "Goldfish" in Asia in April 2025, indicating cost - side support. [8] - Supply and Demand: In February 2024, the chemical commodity pulp shipments of the world's 20 major pulp - producing countries increased by 0.3% year - on - year. Softwood pulp shipments decreased by 4.8% year - on - year in February, while hardwood pulp shipments increased by 3.6% year - on - year in January. From January to February, China's total pulp imports were 6.39 million tons, a 6.1% year - on - year increase. As of March 28, 2025, the pulp inventory in major regions and ports was 1.79 million tons, a 10.9% decrease from the previous month. Market demand has not improved significantly, and downstream confidence is insufficient, with rational replenishment as the main strategy. [8] - Market Outlook: Recently, pulp prices broke through support levels with increasing volume, opening up further short - term downward space. The market is expected to be weak, and attention should be paid to the price guidance in April. [8] Group 3: Industry News - Investment Plan: On April 1, Kemira announced a multi - million - euro investment in its Wellgrow factory in Thailand to expand multiple production lines for chemical strength agents for paper, cardboard, and toilet paper. The expansion project will start in 2026, and the new production capacity is expected to be put into formal operation in August 2026. The expanded annual production capacity of the Wellgrow factory is expected to reach about 100,000 tons, aiming to serve the growing Southeast Asian and Indian markets. [9] Group 4: Data Overview - The report presents various data charts, including import softwood pulp spot prices in Shandong, pulp futures prices, pulp futures - spot price spreads, needle - broadleaf price spreads, warehouse receipt totals, domestic main port pulp inventories, European main port wood pulp inventories, paper product prices and spreads, and the US dollar - RMB exchange rate. The data sources are mainly Wind and Zhuochuang Information, as well as the research and development department of CCB Futures. [16][17][23][25][27]