Report Investment Rating - The investment rating for the stock index futures is a fluctuating and moderately bullish pattern [1] Core Viewpoints - The market's center of gravity continued to rise last week, with a late - stage rally followed by a decline. The core driver of last week's market was the China Central Finance and Economics Commission meeting on the 1st, which emphasized "anti - involution" through the construction of a unified market, leading to a sharp increase in market expectations for a new round of supply - side reform. The value style outperformed last week, with IH and IF stronger than IC and IM, mainly due to the rise of cyclical products. Overseas, the US "Great Beauty Act" was passed, non - farm payroll data was better than expected, and tariff negotiations were underway, causing the S&P 500 and Nasdaq to reach new highs [1] - Currently, the external geopolitical situation is calm, global risk assets are performing strongly, and the domestic economic outlook has shifted from pessimistic to stable, with structural reforms starting to take effect. The risk appetite in the stock market continues to recover, which is an important basis for the current long - position pattern of stock index futures. However, there is a lack of momentum for marginally positive surprises. As long as there are no unexpected changes in external forces and no intensification of domestic structural adjustments, the current pattern of fluctuating upward is expected to continue [2] Summary by Directory Market Review and Outlook - **Market Performance**: Last week, the market's center of gravity rose, with a late - stage rally followed by a decline. In terms of sectors, steel, building materials, and banks led the gains, while computer, non - bank finance, and beauty care led the losses. The value style outperformed, with IH and IF stronger than IC and IM, mainly due to the rise of cyclical products. Overseas, the US "Great Beauty Act" was passed, non - farm payroll data was better than expected, and tariff negotiations were underway, causing the S&P 500 and Nasdaq to reach new highs [1] - **Future Outlook**: The current external geopolitical situation is calm, global risk assets are performing strongly, and the domestic economic outlook has shifted from pessimistic to stable, with structural reforms starting to take effect. The risk appetite in the stock market continues to recover, which is an important basis for the current long - position pattern of stock index futures. However, there is a lack of momentum for marginally positive surprises. As long as there are no unexpected changes in external forces and no intensification of domestic structural adjustments, the current pattern of fluctuating upward is expected to continue. This week, attention should be paid to the release of June economic data in China [2] - **Factors to Watch**: Domestic economy and overseas tariff negotiation progress [3] Strategy Recommendations - **Short - term Strategy**: For intraday trading, refer to the 1 - minute and 5 - minute K - line charts. Set stop - loss and take - profit levels for IF, IH, IC, and IM at 76 points/95 points, 58 points/31 points, 66 points/121 points, and 84 points/142 points respectively [4] - **Trend Strategy**: Adopt a strategy of buying on dips. The core operating range for the IF2507 main contract is between 3826 and 4024 points; for the IH2507 main contract, between 2649 and 2772 points; for the IC2507 main contract, between 5646 and 6025 points; and for the IM2507 main contract, between 5970 and 6372 points [4] - **Cross - variety Strategy**: Due to the frequent switching between value and growth styles recently, it is advisable to wait and see [5] Spot Market Review - **Global Stock Index Performance**: Last week, the Dow Jones Industrial Average rose 2.3%, the S&P 500 rose 1.72%, and the Nasdaq rose 1.62%. In Europe, the UK's FTSE 100 rose 0.27%, Germany's DAX fell 1.02%, and France's CAC 40 rose 0.06%. In the Asia - Pacific market, Japan's Nikkei 225 fell 0.85%, and the Hang Seng Index fell 1.52% [8] - **Domestic Index Performance**: Since 2025, major domestic indices have risen. Last week, all major domestic indices also showed an upward trend [8] Index Valuation Tracking - As of June 27, the TTM price - to - earnings ratio of the Shanghai Composite Index was 14.93 times, the TTM price - to - earnings ratio of the CSI 300 Index was 13.02 times, the TTM price - to - earnings ratio of the SSE 50 Index was 11.18 times, the TTM price - to - earnings ratio of the CSI 500 Index was 27.66 times, and the TTM price - to - earnings ratio of the CSI 1000 Index was 36.02 times [19][20] Market Capital Flow Review - **Investor and Fund Data**: The number of new investors in the two markets and the share of newly established equity - biased funds are presented in relevant charts. Last week, the capital interest rate declined, and the central bank had a net withdrawal of funds [22]

Group 1 - The central theme of the meeting is the importance of "unifying government behavior standards" to facilitate the construction of a unified national market, addressing issues such as local government overreach and market interference [1][3] - The meeting emphasizes the need to focus on key challenges, including the regulation of low-price disorderly competition and the orderly exit of outdated production capacity, which are often linked to inappropriate actions by local governments [1][2] - The meeting outlines that the "unified government behavior standards" should ensure consistent market access and fair competition across different regions, preventing local protectionism and arbitrary barriers [3][4] Group 2 - The meeting highlights the negative impact of local government subsidies and policies on industries like solar energy, leading to overcapacity and market inefficiencies [2] - It is noted that local governments often create unfair competitive conditions through preferential policies that harm the principle of fair competition in a unified market [2][3] - The concept of "unified standards" is proposed to include both spatial and temporal dimensions, ensuring that all government actions adhere to the same guidelines and maintain policy continuity [3][4]

Group 1 - The recent issuance of the "Opinions on Improving the Social Credit System" by the Central Committee of the Communist Party of China and the State Council signifies a systematic deployment for enhancing the social credit system [1] - Significant progress has been made in the construction of the social credit system in China, which has played a crucial role in optimizing the business environment, promoting financial services for the real economy, and improving government governance and service efficiency [1] - The establishment of a national credit information sharing platform has greatly improved the level of credit information sharing, and the legal and standardized foundation of the social credit system has been continuously strengthened [1] Group 2 - The construction of government integrity is highlighted as a key aspect of the social credit system, emphasizing that the integrity of various administrative entities serves as a crucial model and guiding force for overall social credit construction [2] - Policies aimed at enhancing credit management for business entities are proposed, including providing conveniences or benefits for trustworthy entities in public services and supporting financial institutions in leveraging credit information [2] - The implementation of a credit commitment system in administrative approvals and credit restoration is expected to alleviate the financing difficulties faced by private and small to medium-sized enterprises, thereby stimulating market vitality [2] Group 3 - The recent introduction of a series of reform and opening-up policies, including the release of the "Negative List for Market Access (2025 Edition)," aims to reduce the number of restricted items to 106, thereby easing entry restrictions in various industries [3] - The promotion of the private economy law emphasizes the legal protection of the personal rights, property rights, and operational autonomy of private economic organizations and their operators [3] - The acceleration of the establishment of foundational market economy systems, including property rights protection, market access, fair competition, and social credit, is expected to enhance China's market strength and resilience in facing changes [3]

Group 1 - The core viewpoint emphasizes the importance of fair competition as a fundamental principle of market economy and the need for effective measures to promote a unified national market [1] - The province is addressing issues such as market segmentation and local protectionism, focusing on eliminating barriers that hinder the construction of a unified market [1][2] - A special action named "Clean Source" has been launched to rectify regulations that obstruct fair market access and enterprise mobility, resulting in the review of 2,181 policy measures [1][2] Group 2 - Strengthening antitrust and unfair competition enforcement is crucial for ensuring fair market participation by small and medium-sized enterprises [2] - The province is actively regulating market order and has initiated actions against monopolistic behaviors, particularly in the livelihood sector [2] - A system for fair competition review has been established, coordinating with 35 provincial departments to enhance the review mechanism and ensure compliance [2] Group 3 - The province is integrating market supervision with credit rehabilitation, allowing for online processing of credit repair, benefiting over 15,000 businesses this year [3] - The introduction of a streamlined enterprise migration registration system has improved the convenience of cross-regional operations [3] - The province is promoting a "one-stop" approach for business registration and cancellation, which has been recognized and adopted nationwide [3] Group 4 - Credit risk classification is being implemented more broadly, with a focus on individual businesses and enhancing the effectiveness of joint regulatory efforts [4] - The proportion of joint inspections in regulatory tasks has increased to 51%, indicating a more collaborative approach to market supervision [4] Group 5 - The province is standardizing enterprise-related fees and monitoring compliance with fee regulations to prevent violations [5] - Future efforts will focus on removing barriers to enhance the modernization of market regulation and deepen comprehensive reforms [5]

健全市场基础制度 激发经营主体活力 —— 畅通经济循环 推进统一大市场建设(一） 杨成长系全国政协委员、申万宏源证券研究所首席经济学家；龚芳系申万宏源证券研究所政策研究 室主任、首席研究员；方思元系申万宏源证券研究所高级研究员；袁宇泽系申万宏源证券研究所资 深高级研究员 生产、分配、支出是国民经济循环的重要节点，是构成国内大循环的主要内容。 近年来，我国在畅通国内大循环、推进统一大市场建设上取得了一系列突出成绩，但 总的来看，国民经济循环仍面临三大堵点：一是收入向消费转化不畅；二是储蓄向投 资转化不畅；三是部分领域供需结构失衡。 收入向消费的转化，不仅是国民经济循 环中生产、分配与消费之间的重要传导机制，更是扩大内需的关键所在。当前我国居 民消费率和边际消费倾向都还存在较大提升空间，要通过优化收入结构、增强保障预 期等方式加快释放消费市场潜力。 打通储蓄向投资转化的堵点 打通储蓄向投资转化堵点：一要着力提升实体投资收益率，吸引企业 加大生产再投资；二要加快消除企业多元投资主体之间的投资逻辑分 歧，推动社会储蓄向投资转化；三要着力提升资本市场中长期回报水 平，发挥资本市场在推动储蓄向投资转化中的重要作用。当前要 ...

畅通经济循环 推进统一大市场建设（二） 作者：杨成长、龚 芳、方思元、袁宇泽 点生产、分配、支出是国民经济循环的重要节点，是构成国内大循环的主要内容。近年来， 我国在畅通国内大循环、推进统一大市场建设上取得了一系列突出成绩，但总的来看，国民经济 循环仍面临三大堵点：一是收入向消费转化不畅；二是储蓄向投资转化不畅；三是部分领域供需 结构失衡 收入向消费的转化，不仅是国民经济循环中生产、分配与消费之间的重要传导机制，更是扩 大内需的关键所在。当前我国居民消费率和边际消费倾向都还存在较大提升空间，要通过优化收 入结构、增强保障预期等方式加快释放消费市场潜力 打通储蓄向投资转化堵点：一要着力提升实体投资收益率，吸引企业加大生产再投资；二要 加快消除企业多元投资主体之间的投资逻辑分歧，推动社会储蓄向投资转化；三要着力提升资本 市场中长期回报水平，发挥资本市场在推动储蓄向投资转化中的重要作用 当前要精准施策、系统应对，着力构建新型供需关系：一要加快公共服务业市场化改革，提 升高质量服务供给；二要以场景为媒介，打造平台和应用场景，激发新需求、培育新消费；三要 提升监管的前瞻性与适应性，建立包容审慎、柔性可调的监管机制 当前 ...

将投中网设为"星标⭐"，第一时间收获最新推送 FRE 文学 全国社会保障基金理事会 原副理事长 66 99 正在经历深度的重构,主要的驱 动力将是竞争、积极变化的市场 和正面稳定的政策。 99 論壇 中美关系专家 中国人民大学中国对外 战略研究中心主任 面对"关税战",我们要想办法 把坏事变好事,用美国的压力推 动国内的统一大市场建设,真正 实现双循环、内循环。 新质生产力时代,创投基金将居 于金融服务体系的核心的地位, 但核心地位并非一定要单打独 斗、孤军深入。有健全的服务体 系才能实现真正的科技产业与金 融的良性循环。 前海女敏 上海国有资本投资有限公司 党委副书记、总裁 面对市场主体的分化,只有技术 创新卓越、商业模式清晰、市场 壁垒深厚、团队复合能力强的企 业,才能获得持续的进步。 99 66 8 66 '奇' 词词 纪源资本 管理合伙人 吴晓求 中国人民大学 国家金融研究院院长 中国资本市场研究院院长 什么是长期主义?长期就是守住 核心能力,掌握科技趋势,坚持 相信企业的发展。但过去企业的 发展都是想做大做强、现在这个 环境很难允许你那么做。所以长 期的方式要有变化。 66 99 张 维 基石资本 ...