Report Summary 1. Report Industry Investment Rating No information provided. 2. Core View - The actual resumption progress of Myanmar's tin mines is expected to be slower than market expectations, and the Bisie mine in Congo plans to resume production in stages with supply expected to be released in late June. - In the smelting sector, Yunnan is facing raw material shortages and cost pressures, while Jiangxi's scrap recycling system is under stress with a risk of capacity exit and low operating rates. - On the demand side, downstream and end - users' purchasing sentiment has improved with price declines, but overall trading remains dull. - Technically, short - term wide - range adjustments are expected, and it is recommended to wait and see, with a reference range of 243,000 - 257,000 yuan/ton [3]. 3. Summary by Relevant Catalogs 3.1 Futures Market - The closing price of the main futures contract of Shanghai Tin was 249,800 yuan/ton, down 500 yuan; the closing price of the July - August contract was down 220 yuan with a 20 - yuan increase. - LME 3 - month tin was at 30,545 US dollars/ton, up 315 US dollars. - The main contract's open interest of Shanghai Tin was 35,021 lots, up 1,517 lots. - The net position of the top 20 futures was 3,229 lots, up 831 lots. - LME tin's total inventory was 2,605 tons, down 75 tons; Shanghai Futures Exchange's tin inventory was 8,107 tons, down 338 tons; and the warehouse receipt was 7,520 tons, down 352 tons [3]. 3.2 Spot Market - The SMM 1 tin spot price was 250,400 yuan/ton, down 1,100 yuan; the Yangtze River Non - ferrous Market 1 tin spot price was 249,860 yuan/ton, down 1,180 yuan. - The basis of the Shanghai Tin main contract was 600 yuan/ton, down 600 yuan; the LME tin premium (0 - 3) was - 107 US dollars/ton, down 29 US dollars [3]. 3.3 Upstream Situation - The import volume of tin ore and concentrates was 12,100 tons, down 2,900 tons. - The average price of 40% tin concentrate was 246,300 yuan/ton, down 31,200 yuan; the average price of 60% tin concentrate was 250,300 yuan/ton, down 31,200 yuan. - The processing fees for 40% and 60% tin concentrates remained unchanged at 11,500 yuan/ton and 7,500 yuan/ton respectively [3]. 3.4 Industry Situation - The monthly output of refined tin was 14,000 tons, down 1,600 tons; the import volume of refined tin was 3,762.32 tons, up 143.24 tons [3]. 3.5 Downstream Situation - The price of 60A solder bars in Gejiu was 163,170 yuan/ton, down 460 yuan. - The cumulative output of tin - plated sheets (strips) was 1.6014 million tons, up 144,500 tons; the export volume of tin - plated sheets was 140,700 tons, down 33,900 tons [3]. 3.6 Industry News - In May, China's manufacturing PMI was 49.5%, up 0.5 percentage points; non - manufacturing PMI was 50.3%, down 0.1 percentage points; and the comprehensive PMI output index was 50.4%, up 0.2 percentage points. - The sales volume of consumer goods trade - in this year exceeded 1 trillion yuan, with 1.1 trillion yuan in sales and about 175 million subsidies issued. - The US May ISM manufacturing PMI was 48.5, the lowest since November 2024, and the S&P Global manufacturing PMI final value was 52. - Fed's Daly said she was still comfortable with the Fed's March forecast of two rate cuts by the end of the year and hoped to maintain a moderately restrictive policy rate [3].

Core Viewpoint - The manufacturing PMI in May shows signs of recovery, indicating an overall expansion in China's economy, while the non-manufacturing sector remains stable but slightly declines [1][6][8]. Manufacturing Sector - The manufacturing PMI for May is reported at 49.5%, an increase of 0.5 percentage points from the previous month, indicating an improvement in economic conditions [1][3]. - The production index rose to 50.7%, up 0.9 percentage points, suggesting an acceleration in manufacturing activities [5]. - Large enterprises' PMI increased to 50.7%, returning to the expansion zone, with production and new order indices at 51.5% and 52.5%, respectively [5]. - High-tech manufacturing PMI stands at 50.9%, maintaining expansion for four consecutive months, while energy-intensive industries show lower activity with a PMI of 47.0% [5][6]. Non-Manufacturing Sector - The non-manufacturing business activity index is at 50.3%, a slight decrease of 0.1 percentage points, but still above the critical point, indicating continued expansion [8][11]. - The service sector's business activity index rose to 50.2%, driven by increased consumer activity during the "May Day" holiday [10]. - The construction industry remains in expansion with a business activity index of 51.0%, although it has slightly decreased from the previous month [10][11]. Market Expectations - The production and business activity expectation index for May is at 52.5%, reflecting stable confidence among manufacturing enterprises [6]. - The service sector's business activity expectation index is at 56.5%, indicating ongoing optimism among service providers [10].

国家统计局数据显示，5月份非制造业商务活动指数为50.3%，比上月下降0.1个百分点；综合PMI产出 指数为50.4%，比上月上升0.2个百分点，我国经济总体产出保持扩张。 ...

Group 1: Manufacturing PMI Insights - In May, the manufacturing PMI rose to 49.5%, an increase of 0.5 percentage points from the previous month, indicating an improvement in economic conditions [1][2] - The production index reached 50.7%, up 0.9 percentage points, signaling accelerated manufacturing activity, while the new orders index increased to 49.8%, up 0.6 percentage points [2] - Large enterprises saw their PMI rise to 50.7%, returning to the expansion zone, with production and new orders indices at 51.5% and 52.5%, respectively [2] Group 2: High-Tech and Export Performance - High-tech manufacturing PMI stood at 50.9%, maintaining expansion for four consecutive months, while equipment manufacturing and consumer goods sectors also showed improvement [3] - New export orders and import indices increased to 47.5% and 47.1%, respectively, reflecting a recovery in foreign trade orders, particularly from companies engaged with the U.S. market [3] Group 3: Non-Manufacturing Sector Performance - The non-manufacturing business activity index was 50.3%, slightly down by 0.1 percentage points but still indicating expansion [4] - The service sector's business activity index rose to 50.2%, driven by increased consumer activity during the "May Day" holiday, with significant growth in transportation and hospitality sectors [4] - The construction sector maintained expansion with a business activity index of 51.0%, although it showed a slight decline from the previous month [4] Group 4: Composite PMI Overview - The composite PMI output index increased to 50.4%, up 0.2 percentage points, indicating continued expansion in production and business activities across sectors [5][6] - The manufacturing production index and non-manufacturing business activity index contributed to the composite PMI, standing at 50.7% and 50.3%, respectively [6]

国家统计局服务业调查中心 中国物流与采购联合会 一、中国制造业采购经理指数运行情况 5月份，制造业采购经理指数（PMI）为49.5%，比上月上升0.5个百分点，制造业景气水平改善。 供应商配送时间指数为50.0%，比上月下降0.2个百分点，位于临界点，表明制造业原材料供应商交货时间与上月基本持平。 表1 中国制造业PMI及构成指数（经季节调整） 单位：% 从企业规模看，大型企业PMI为50.7%，比上月上升1.5个百分点，高于临界点；中型企业PMI为47.5%，比上月下降1.3个百分点，低于临界点；小型企业PMI 为49.3%，比上月上升0.6个百分点，低于临界点。 从分类指数看，在构成制造业PMI的5个分类指数中，生产指数高于临界点，供应商配送时间指数位于临界点，新订单指数、原材料库存指数和从业人员指 数均低于临界点。 生产指数为50.7%，比上月上升0.9个百分点，升至临界点以上，表明制造业企业生产活动有所加快。 新订单指数为49.8%，比上月上升0.6个百分点，表明制造业市场需求景气度回升。 原材料库存指数为47.4%，比上月上升0.4个百分点，低于临界点，表明制造业主要原材料库存量降幅有所收窄。 从业 ...

Group 1: Service Trade Performance - In Q1 2025, China's service trade totalled 19,741.8 billion yuan, a year-on-year increase of 8.7% [3] - Service exports reached 8,351.5 billion yuan, growing by 12.2%, while imports were 11,390.3 billion yuan, increasing by 6.2% [3] - The service trade deficit was 3,038.8 billion yuan, a decrease of 244.6 billion yuan compared to the same period last year [3] - Knowledge-intensive service trade grew to 7,524.9 billion yuan, up 2.6%, with significant contributions from business services and telecommunications [3] - Travel services saw the highest growth, with total imports and exports reaching 5,849 billion yuan, a 21.8% increase, and exports surged by 97.5% [3] Group 2: Manufacturing PMI Analysis - In April 2025, the manufacturing PMI was 49.0%, down 1.5 percentage points from the previous month, indicating a decline in manufacturing activity [5] - The production index was at 49.8%, reflecting a slight slowdown in manufacturing production [6] - The new orders index fell to 49.2%, suggesting a decrease in market demand for manufactured goods [7] - The raw materials inventory index dropped to 47.0%, indicating a reduction in the inventory levels of key raw materials [8] - The employment index was at 47.9%, showing a decline in employment levels within the manufacturing sector [9] Group 3: Non-Manufacturing PMI Insights - The non-manufacturing business activity index was 50.4% in April 2025, down 0.4 percentage points but still indicating expansion [10] - The construction sector's business activity index was 51.9%, while the services sector's index was 50.1%, both showing a decline from the previous month [10] - The new orders index for non-manufacturing fell to 44.9%, indicating a drop in market demand [10] - The input prices index was at 47.8%, suggesting a decrease in the overall price level of inputs used in non-manufacturing activities [11] - The business activity expectations index remained optimistic at 56.0%, despite a slight decline [11] Group 4: Comprehensive PMI Overview - The comprehensive PMI output index was 50.2% in April 2025, down 1.2 percentage points but still above the critical point, indicating continued expansion in production activities [13]

Core Viewpoint - The manufacturing Purchasing Managers' Index (PMI) in April dropped to 49%, indicating a contraction, while the non-manufacturing business activity index and the composite PMI output index remained in the expansion zone at 50.4% and 50.2% respectively, reflecting a stable economic foundation despite external uncertainties [1][5]. Manufacturing Sector - The manufacturing PMI decreased by 1.5 percentage points in April, attributed to external environmental changes and seasonal factors, as March is typically a peak season for manufacturing [1][2]. - The new orders index for manufacturing was significantly higher than the new export orders index, indicating stable domestic demand despite a decline in export orders [2]. - High-tech manufacturing sectors continued to expand, showing resilience in production activities [5]. Non-Manufacturing Sector - The non-manufacturing PMI stood at 50.4%, down 0.4 percentage points from the previous month, but still indicating stable expansion [3]. - The construction sector showed robust activity, particularly in infrastructure, with the civil engineering business activity index rising over 5 percentage points to above 60% [3]. - Consumer sectors, including travel and leisure, experienced increased activity, with indices for air transport and entertainment rising above 55% and 51% respectively [3]. Economic Outlook - The composite PMI output index was at 50.2%, down 1.2 percentage points, but still above the critical point, indicating overall production expansion [5]. - Experts suggest that despite short-term disruptions from global uncertainties, the economic foundation remains solid, supported by a large domestic market and effective policy measures [2][4]. - The business activity expectation index for non-manufacturing remained high at over 56%, reflecting optimism among enterprises regarding future market conditions [4][6].

4月30日，国家统计局发布的数据显示，4月份制造业采购经理指数（PMI）为49.0%，比上月下降1.5个 百分点；非制造业商务活动指数和综合PMI产出指数分别为50.4%和50.2%，继续保持在扩张区间。 另外，受市场需求不足和近期部分大宗商品价格持续下行等因素影响，主要原材料购进价格指数和出厂 价格指数分别为47.0%和44.8%，均比上月下降，制造业市场价格总体水平有所下降。文韬表示，4月份 供需整体的偏弱运行带动了原材料和产成品价格加快下行。 不可否认，外贸环境变化给我国制造业带来一定扰动，市场需求和企业生产短期有所放缓，原材料采 购、市场价格等方面也有所波动，但也要看到我国经济底座依然稳固，超大规模市场、完备产业链供应 链体系等优势持续发挥作用，前期出台以及增量可期的一系列有力有效的宏观经济政策能够护航经济行 稳致远。赵庆河也谈到，虽然4月份制造业PMI有所回落，但高技术制造业等相关行业继续保持扩张， 以内销为主的制造业企业生产经营总体稳定。 从重点行业看，高技术制造业持续向好。高技术制造业PMI为51.5%，明显高于制造业总体水平，其生 产指数和新订单指数均位于52.0%及以上。生产经营活动预期指数 ...

制造业PMI有所回落 4月制造业PMI比3月下降1.5个百分点，分项数据显示，制造业市场需求有所放缓。4月，新出口订单指 数为44.7%，较3月下降4.3个百分点；新订单指数为49.2%，较3月下降2.6个百分点。 中国物流信息中心分析师文韬表示，国外需求短期收紧拖累了我国制造业整体市场需求。 国家统计局服务业调查中心高级统计师赵庆河表示，从全球范围看，受贸易环境不确定性增大影响，主 要经济体制造业景气度普遍位于收缩区间，美国供应管理协会发布的3月份美国制造业PMI为49.0%，有 关机构发布的4月份欧元区、英国、日本制造业PMI初值均低于临界点。 制造业PMI中生产指数和价格指数也有所下降。4月，制造业生产指数为49.8%，比3月下降2.8个百分 点。主要原材料购进价格指数和出厂价格指数分别为47.0%和44.8%，比3月下降2.8和3.1个百分点，制 造业市场价格总体水平有所下降。 "制造业价格指数有所下降，主要受到市场需求不足和近期部分大宗商品价格持续下行等因素影响。"赵 庆河表示。 国家统计局服务业调查中心和中国物流与采购联合会4月30日发布数据显示，4月，制造业PMI为49%， 比3月下降1.5个百 ...

Group 1: Manufacturing Sector - In April, the Manufacturing Purchasing Managers' Index (PMI) decreased to 49.0%, down 1.5 percentage points from the previous month, indicating a contraction in the manufacturing sector [1] - All 13 sub-indices related to manufacturing showed a decline, with the production index, new orders index, and new export orders index experiencing significant drops, reflecting a contraction in demand [2][4] - The overall economic output remains stable, with the composite PMI output index at 50.2%, indicating continued expansion despite the decline in manufacturing PMI [1][4] Group 2: Non-Manufacturing Sector - The Non-Manufacturing Business Activity Index stood at 50.4%, down 0.4 percentage points from the previous month, but still above the critical point, indicating ongoing expansion in the non-manufacturing sector [1][8] - Key indices in the non-manufacturing sector, such as new orders and new export orders, also saw declines, but the construction and service industries showed resilience, particularly in tourism and entertainment [6][8] - The business activity expectation index has remained above 55% for seven consecutive months, indicating a stable optimistic outlook among enterprises for future market conditions [8] Group 3: Economic Policy and Outlook - Analysts emphasize the need for more proactive macroeconomic policies, including increased government investment in public goods to stimulate market demand and improve employment and income levels [5] - The overall economic environment is influenced by external uncertainties, including trade tensions, which necessitate a focus on stabilizing employment, enterprises, and market expectations [1][4] - The second quarter is expected to see stable performance in the non-manufacturing sector, supported by the release of economic stabilization policies [8]