报告导读： 7 月制造业 PMI 回落，季节性影响外，"反内卷"政策推进重点行业产能治 理，推升原材料价格水平。同时，房地产需求疲软对内需有所拖累。 2025 年 7 月份，制造业 PMI 为 49.3% ，比上月下降 0.4 个百分点。建筑业商务活动指数为 50.6% ，比上月下降 2.2 个百分点；服务业商务活动指数为 50.0% ，比上月下降 0.1 个百分点。 制造业 PMI 边际回落。 本月制造业 PMI 的表现与过去三年同期均值大体相当，降幅基本符合季节性。究其原因，部分地区高温、暴雨洪涝灾害对供需有所 拖累。此外，大、小型企业 PMI 分化加剧。 生产步入淡季，需求行业分化。 本月生产指数降幅符合季节性。需求放缓略超季节性。一方面，铁路船舶航空航天设备、计算机通信电子设备等行业新订单 指数持续位于扩张区间，或与设备更新政策效果持续释放有关。另一方面，化学原料及化学制品、非金属矿物制品等行业两个指数继续低于临界点，或与房地 产压力之下，终端需求不足有关。此外，在"反内卷"政策导向下，原材料价格上涨，企业采购指数回落，原材料库存去化。 服务业景气度平稳。 服务业景气度平稳运行有季节性因素的支撑。在暑 ...

Group 1: National Fertility Subsidy - The national fertility subsidy covers a wider range, with a total subsidy of 10,800 CNY per newborn over three years, compared to a median of 6,600 CNY and an average of 8,700 CNY for local subsidies[3][16] - The first-year budget for the national fertility subsidy is approximately 100 billion CNY, expected to promote the birth of about 330,000 newborns[4][16] - The short-term leverage effect of the subsidy is estimated at 0.9 times, potentially increasing to about 1.4 times in the medium to long term, with a GDP increase of 926 billion CNY in 2025[4][19] Group 2: Manufacturing Sector - The manufacturing PMI for July is reported at 49.3%, down 0.4 percentage points from the previous month, indicating a decline in manufacturing activity[5][13] - The production PMI decreased by 0.5 percentage points to 50.5%, while new orders, new export orders, and imports fell to 49.4%, 47.1%, and 44.7% respectively[5][22] - The "anti-involution" trend is expected to boost commodity prices, with July PPI projected to improve slightly to -3.0% year-on-year[5][29] Group 3: Non-Manufacturing Sector - The construction PMI fell by 2.2 percentage points to 50.6%, indicating a potential continuation of the slowdown in infrastructure investment[6][35] - The service sector remains relatively stable, with a service PMI of 50.0%, down 0.1 percentage points, and new orders declining to 46.3%[6][42] - Infrastructure investment may be affected by high base effects in Q3 and Q4, requiring policy measures to mitigate the impact[6][35] Group 4: Risks and Economic Outlook - Risks include unexpected policy changes and a potential recession in the U.S. economy[7][45] - The overall economic impact of the fertility subsidy includes direct boosts to consumer spending and indirect effects on child-rearing and housing demand[4][18]

非制造业稳中有进，极端天气影响建筑业景气度回落。非制造业商务活动指数为50.1%，虽较上月下降 0.4个百分点，但仍连续多月位于扩张区间，成为支撑经济稳定的重要力量。受近期部分地区持续高 温、暴雨洪涝灾害等不利因素对建筑业施工带来明显影响，使得建筑业景气度回落，是影响非制造业商 务活动指数下降的主要原因。随着超长期特别国债和地方专项债券的发行使用，加快中央预算内资金对 重点领域的投资，城市更新、水利工程、数字基础设施建设加快推进，建筑业有望保持稳健的扩张势 头。 服务业总体运行稳定，暑期消费带动效应较为显著。服务业商务活动指数位于荣枯线上，整体保持平 稳，存在明显的结构性分化。一方面，受房地产市场仍处于调整阶段的影响，与房地产相关的商务活动 指数普遍低于临界点，景气度偏弱。近期极端天气也对部分服务业带来影响，尤其是户外娱乐业、物流 运输、餐饮业等。另一方面，受暑期假日效应带动，消费市场表现较为活跃，铁路运输、航空运输、文 化体育娱乐等行业商务活动指数均高于60%，业务总量快速增长。服务业业务活动预期指数上升到 56.6%，表明服务业整体市场预期走势乐观。 新动能持续增长，部分重点行业表现亮眼，高质量发展持续推 ...

宏观研究 /[Table_Date] 2025.07.31 2025-07-31 PMI 淡季回落，价格上涨 [Table_Authors] ——2025 年 7 月 PMI 数据点评 本报告导读： 7 月制造业 PMI 回落，季节性影响外，"反内卷"政策推进重点行业产能 治理，推升原材料价格水平。同时，房地产需求疲软对内需有所拖累。 投资要点： 风险提示：房地产需求有待提振。 证 券 研 究 报 告 请务必阅读正文之后的免责条款部分 宏 观 研 究 宏 观 专 题 [Table_Report] [Table_Summary] 2025 年 7 月份，制造业 PMI 为 49.3%，比上月下降 0.4 个百分点。 建筑业商务活动指数为 50.6%，比上月下降 2.2 个百分点；服务业 商务活动指数为 50.0%，比上月下降 0.1 个百分点。 制造业 PMI 边际回落。本月制造业 PMI 的表现与过去三年同期均 值大体相当，降幅基本符合季节性。究其原因，部分地区高温、暴 雨洪涝灾害对供需有所拖累。此外，大、小型企业 PMI 分化加剧。 生产步入淡季，需求行业分化。本月生产指数降幅符合季节性。需 求放缓略超季节 ...

受近期部分大宗商品价格上涨等因素影响，7月份主要原材料购进价格指数和出厂价格指数分别为 51.5%和48.3%，比上月上升3.1和2.1个百分点，其中主要原材料购进价格指数自今年3月份以来首次升 至临界点以上，制造业市场价格总体水平有所改善。 值得注意的是，制造业企业对近期市场发展信心有所增强。7月份，生产经营活动预期指数为52.6%， 比上月上升0.6个百分点。汽车、铁路船舶航空航天设备、电气机械器材等行业生产经营活动预期指数 均位于55.0%以上较高景气区间。 7月份，大型企业PMI为50.3%，比上月下降0.9个百分点，其生产指数和新订单指数分别为52.1%和 50.7%，均连续三个月位于扩张区间，保持较好生产经营态势；中型企业PMI为49.5%，比上月上升0.9 个百分点，景气水平继续改善；小型企业PMI降至46.4%。 (责任编辑：王晨曦) 中国国家统计局7月31日公布，受制造业进入传统生产淡季，部分地区高温、暴雨洪涝灾害等因素影 响，7月份中国制造业采购经理指数(PMI)降至49.3%。 重点行业中，装备制造业和高技术制造业PMI分别为50.3%和50.6%，均持续高于临界点；消费品行业 PMI下 ...

Group 1: Manufacturing Sector - The manufacturing Purchasing Managers' Index (PMI) decreased to 49.3% in July, down 0.4 percentage points from the previous month, indicating a decline in manufacturing activity [1][2] - The production index remained in expansion at 50.5%, while the new orders index fell to 49.4%, reflecting a slowdown in market demand [2] - Large enterprises maintained expansion with a PMI of 50.3%, while medium-sized enterprises improved to 49.5%, and small enterprises decreased to 46.4% [3] Group 2: Price Indices - The price index for major raw materials increased, with the purchasing price index at 51.5% and the factory price index at 48.3%, indicating an overall improvement in manufacturing market prices [2] - The purchasing price index for major raw materials rose above the critical point for the first time since March, suggesting a recovery in market conditions [2] Group 3: Non-Manufacturing Sector - The non-manufacturing business activity index was 50.1%, down 0.4 percentage points from the previous month, but still above the critical point, indicating continued expansion [1][4] - The service sector's business activity index remained stable at 50.0%, with certain industries like transportation and entertainment showing strong growth due to seasonal effects [4] - The construction sector's business activity index fell to 50.6%, influenced by adverse weather conditions, while the business activity expectation index for the service sector rose to 56.6%, indicating optimism among service enterprises [4] Group 4: Composite PMI - The composite PMI output index was 50.2%, down 0.5 percentage points from the previous month, but still indicating overall expansion in production and business activities [5][6] - The manufacturing production index and non-manufacturing business activity index contributed to the composite PMI, standing at 50.5% and 50.1% respectively [6]

Group 1: Manufacturing PMI Overview - In July, the Manufacturing Purchasing Managers' Index (PMI) was 49.3%, a decrease of 0.4 percentage points from the previous month, indicating a decline in manufacturing activity [2][21][22] - The production index was 50.5%, down 0.5 percentage points, while the new orders index was 49.4%, down 0.8 percentage points, suggesting a slowdown in market demand [6][22] - Large enterprises maintained expansion with a PMI of 50.3%, while medium-sized enterprises improved to 49.5%, and small enterprises decreased to 46.4% [5][23][24] Group 2: Non-Manufacturing PMI Overview - The Non-Manufacturing Business Activity Index was 50.1%, a decrease of 0.4 percentage points, but still above the critical point, indicating continued expansion [11][25] - The service sector's business activity index was stable at 50.0%, while the construction sector's index fell to 50.6%, down 2.2 percentage points due to adverse weather conditions [14][25] - The business activity expectation index for non-manufacturing was 55.8%, indicating optimism among most enterprises regarding market development [17][25] Group 3: Comprehensive PMI Overview - The Comprehensive PMI Output Index was 50.2%, a decrease of 0.5 percentage points, but still indicating overall expansion in production and business activities [20][26] - The manufacturing production index and non-manufacturing business activity index were 50.5% and 50.1%, respectively, contributing to the comprehensive index's performance [26]