Core Viewpoint - The introduction of the U.S. stablecoin regulatory framework marks a significant shift in the legal status and mainstream acceptance of stablecoins, particularly dollar-pegged stablecoins, which are now officially recognized by the U.S. government [1][6]. Regulatory Framework - The U.S. stablecoin regulation requires issuers to ensure that their tokens are pegged to the U.S. dollar at a 1:1 ratio and mandates that the funds obtained from issuing tokens be reserved or invested in highly liquid U.S. dollar assets, including cash, bank deposits, and U.S. Treasury securities [6][9]. - This regulatory framework aims to promote the development of dollar stablecoins to support U.S. economic and financial strategic goals [1][8]. Global Impact - The U.S. stablecoin regulation is expected to have a profound impact on the global financial system, potentially altering its development direction and structure [1][8]. - The expansion of dollar stablecoins is anticipated to create new demand for U.S. Treasury securities, as the growing global user base of these stablecoins will become a significant buyer of U.S. debt [8]. Stablecoin Definition and Mechanism - Stablecoins are a type of cryptocurrency that maintains a stable value by being pegged to a fiat currency or other stable assets, distinguishing them from more volatile cryptocurrencies [9]. - The operational mechanism of stablecoins involves anchoring to assets to maintain price stability, with dollar stablecoins typically requiring a 1:1 backing with U.S. dollars or equivalent assets [9][12]. Market Overview - The two largest stablecoins by market capitalization are Tether (USDT) and USD Coin (USDC), which together account for approximately 90% of the total market capitalization of stablecoins [10]. - USDT is issued by Tether and is backed by U.S. dollar-related assets, while USDC is issued by Circle and is similarly backed by high liquidity assets, ensuring transparency through third-party audits [12].

Group 1 - The U.S. Treasury announced a plan to borrow $1 trillion in the third quarter, doubling the amount planned four months ago [1] - The average daily cash withdrawal from the market is $11.1 billion, with the Treasury Secretary justifying this as a means to fill a cash shortfall [3] - The U.S. is facing a significant fiscal deficit, exacerbated by tariffs, which have led to a reduction in expected revenue [3] Group 2 - The yield on the 10-year U.S. Treasury bonds surged to 4.5%, while the 30-year bonds exceeded 5%, marking a five-year high [5] - Hedge funds are engaging in risky strategies, using leverage of 50 to 100 times to bet on bond price differences, which poses a systemic risk [5] - A chain reaction from forced liquidations could potentially destabilize the entire market [5] Group 3 - China has been reducing its holdings of U.S. Treasuries, with its holdings dropping to $756.3 billion, the lowest level since the 2009 financial crisis [7] - Despite the turmoil in U.S. bonds, the Chinese yuan has appreciated significantly, rising 3.5% over three months [8] - The U.S. dollar index has fallen by 12% this year, indicating a shift in global currency dynamics [8] Group 4 - China is actively issuing yuan-denominated bonds and competing with the Federal Reserve for global dollar buyers [10] - There is a notable increase in the use of the yuan for international trade, with nearly 40% of cross-border transactions in Southeast Asia being settled in yuan [10] - The share of global central bank reserves held in dollars has dropped to 58%, while the transaction volume in China's cross-border payment system has surged by 189% [10] Group 5 - The Chinese economy is ramping up fiscal measures, increasing the fiscal deficit ratio to a historical high of 4% [11] - Significant investments are being directed towards new infrastructure and semiconductor manufacturing, with a notable rise in domestic sales of electric vehicles [13] - The tariffs imposed by the U.S. have not hindered Chinese companies; instead, they have accelerated their shift to other international markets [13]

Group 1 - China's significant reduction of U.S. Treasury holdings to $756.3 billion marks a new low since 2009, down from $1.06 trillion in early 2022, indicating a 30% decrease and reflecting a lack of confidence in the U.S. economy [1] - The Chinese government is actively seeking alternative investments, with gold reserves reaching 2,298 tons, accounting for 7% of foreign exchange reserves, as a strategy to prepare for potential dollar depreciation [1] - The U.S. is facing a strategic dilemma, as Secretary of State Rubio's call for mutual respect appears to be a response to fiscal constraints while maintaining a hardline stance against China [3] Group 2 - The absurdity of the U.S. Treasury's "donate to pay off national debt" link highlights the irony of a system where public donations of $67.3 million over 30 years are insufficient to cover a single day's interest on national debt [5] - The shift in global economic order is underscored by the increasing use of local currencies among BRICS nations and Saudi Arabia's acceptance of yuan for oil, challenging the dominance of the dollar [5] - The annualized return of Chinese gold ETFs at 12% contrasts sharply with the -3% performance of U.S. Treasury funds, suggesting a trend where investors are moving towards gold and stable assets [7]

Group 1 - The core viewpoint of the article highlights China's strategic reduction of U.S. Treasury holdings, signaling a complex financial battle between China and the U.S. [1] - In May, China reduced its U.S. Treasury holdings by $900 million, marking the third consecutive month of reductions, bringing the total to $756.3 billion, which is close to the psychologically significant $700 billion threshold [4][5] - From 2022 to 2024, China has cumulatively reduced its U.S. Treasury holdings by $281.3 billion, averaging over $100 billion per year, indicating a gradual and strategic approach rather than a sudden sell-off [4][5] Group 2 - China's current ranking in U.S. Treasury holdings has dropped from second to third, overtaken by the UK, allowing for more flexible operations without attracting excessive market scrutiny [8] - Three main reasons for the timing of China's actions include addressing the "U.S. debt crisis," reallocating foreign reserves into gold and industry funds, and responding to U.S. tariffs with financial countermeasures [9][13] - China's gold reserves increased to 73.9 million ounces in the first half of 2025, while $30 billion was allocated to semiconductor funds, indicating a strategic shift in resource allocation [9] Group 3 - Potential future scenarios include accelerated reductions in long-term U.S. Treasuries if the Federal Reserve is forced to cut interest rates, or a significant sell-off of short-term bonds in response to increased U.S. sanctions post-election [14][16] - If U.S.-China negotiations resume, the remaining $756.3 billion in U.S. Treasuries could serve as leverage for enhancing the international status of the Chinese yuan [16] - The article emphasizes that China's gradual reduction of U.S. Treasury holdings is a calculated move to maintain financial stability while optimizing its foreign exchange reserve structure [17][20]

Group 1: Macro Environment - The recent passing of the US stablecoin bill in the House of Representatives is expected to strengthen the dollar's dominance in the global financial system and potentially alleviate the US debt crisis [2] - Domestic "anti-involution" policies are generating positive sentiment, which is spreading to other commodity futures, leading to significant increases in the black and building materials sectors [2] - The global oil market is currently experiencing strong supply and demand dynamics, with OPEC+ increasing production significantly [2][3] Group 2: Oil Market Dynamics - OPEC+ has agreed to increase daily production by 548,000 barrels in August, which is significantly higher than previous increases, potentially restoring the 2.2 million barrels per day cut announced earlier this year [2] - The Northern Hemisphere is in the summer oil consumption peak, with US commercial crude oil inventories dropping to 422 million barrels, a weekly decrease of 3.859 million barrels [3] - The US refinery utilization rate remains high at 93.9%, indicating strong demand for crude oil [3] Group 3: Asphalt Market Analysis - Domestic asphalt production is showing slight growth, with a total weekly output of 572,000 tons, a minor increase of 6,000 tons [5] - Despite an increase in asphalt supply, demand remains strong, with a significant weekly increase in shipments to 414,000 tons, up 40,000 tons [5] - Asphalt social inventory has decreased significantly, with a weekly drop of 4.1%, and a year-on-year decrease of 32.9% [5][6] Group 4: Overall Outlook - The overall market for asphalt is characterized by strong supply and demand, with a clear trend of inventory reduction [6] - The combination of a positive macro environment, improved oil supply-demand structure, and stronger asphalt demand than supply suggests that the asphalt futures market will maintain a bullish trend [6]

Group 1 - The "Big and Beautiful" Act is projected to increase the US deficit by $3.4 trillion over the next decade, potentially resulting in 10 million Americans losing health insurance [1] - The Act extends the tax cuts from the Tax Cuts and Jobs Act and raises the US debt ceiling by $5 trillion, indicating a significant increase in government debt [1] - Fitch Ratings has downgraded the outlook for 25% of US industries to "deteriorating," which is a sign of potential economic recession [1][2] Group 2 - The "Genius Act" aims to support the US debt market by mandating stablecoin issuers to purchase short-term US Treasury bonds, creating a closed loop of "dollar-stablecoin-Treasuries" [2] - The global stablecoin market is expected to exceed $2 trillion by 2030, with a significant portion potentially backing short-term US Treasuries, which could help absorb the increased US debt [2][4] - The "Big and Beautiful" Act's strategy of increasing tariffs while reducing taxes aims to attract foreign investment and stimulate economic growth, but faces significant internal contradictions [2][3] Group 3 - The US federal debt-to-GDP ratio is expected to rise from 123% in 2024 to at least 132%, raising concerns about the sustainability of US debt [3] - The timing of tax increases and decreases creates structural contradictions, as external tax revenues have not materialized while internal tax cuts and spending increases are immediate [3] - The Act's tax cuts disproportionately benefit corporations and the wealthy, potentially exacerbating social divides and undermining economic growth [3][4]

Market Performance - US stock indices experienced slight gains, with the Dow Jones up 0.48%, Nasdaq up 0.33%, and S&P 500 up 0.27% as of the report [1] - Notable individual stock performances include TSMC rising over 2% due to second-quarter net profits exceeding market expectations and reaching a historical high, and PepsiCo increasing over 5% with second-quarter revenue of $22.726 billion, also surpassing market expectations [1] - Nvidia and Microsoft both saw approximately 1% increases, achieving market capitalizations of $4.2 trillion and $3.8 trillion, respectively [1] Chinese Stocks - Chinese stocks showed mixed performance, with Waterdrop rising over 28%, NIO up over 6%, and several others including Douyu, Zhihu, Kingsoft Cloud, and iQIYI increasing over 2% [1] - Conversely, NetEase Youdao, Xiaomi Group (ADR), and Gaotu experienced declines of over 1% and 2% [1] Company News - Nvidia CEO Jensen Huang sold 225,000 shares of Nvidia stock for approximately $38 million, as part of a pre-set trading plan allowing for the sale of up to 6 million shares [6] - Tesla officially announced the Model Y L, a six-seat luxury SUV, with an estimated price of around 400,000 yuan [7]

Summary of Conference Call Notes Industry or Company Involved - The discussion primarily revolves around the macroeconomic environment, focusing on the impact of government policies, investment trends, and the behavior of central banks, particularly in relation to gold purchases and U.S. debt. Core Points and Arguments 1. **Economic Volatility and Domestic Policies** The current strategy maintains a view that a new round of volatility has begun due to rising overseas risks, influenced by domestic policies such as the "two new" policy aimed at economic stimulation through equipment upgrades and replacements [1] 2. **Investment Trends and Economic Indicators** There is a noted slowdown in investment growth, particularly in sectors like automotive, where April's year-on-year growth was 7%, reflecting a significant drop from March's 4.8% [2] 3. **Government as Economic Engine** The government is expected to play a crucial role in driving economic recovery through expanded development scales and increased fiscal support, particularly for social security and flexible employment [3] 4. **Debt Maturity and Market Impact** A total of approximately 60 trillion in debt is maturing, with about 20 trillion expected to mature between May and July, which constitutes nearly one-third of the total market capitalization [4] 5. **Interest Rate Projections** Anticipations are that the 10-year domestic interest rate may exceed 2.5% in June due to inflation and debt rollover pressures [5] 6. **Tax Cuts and Corporate Investment** Tax cuts are expected to reduce corporate costs but may not lead to increased production or investment due to weak demand, resulting in a diminished effect on economic growth [6] 7. **U.S. Economic Growth Concerns** There are doubts about whether U.S. economic growth can exceed 4%, with potential risks of a debt crisis if growth does not keep pace with interest obligations [7] 8. **Trade and Tariff Negotiations** Recent tariff negotiations have created market volatility, with the U.S. imposing tariffs that have led to significant market reactions, indicating the fragility of trade relations [8] 9. **China's Trade Dynamics** China's response to U.S. demands for increased imports while restricting technology exports complicates trade relations, making it difficult to balance trade deficits [9] 10. **Central Bank Gold Purchases** Central banks are increasingly purchasing gold as a hedge against U.S. debt and to diversify reserves, with the share of central bank gold purchases in total gold demand rising from 10% to 23.2% since 2022 [13][14] 11. **Global Gold Reserve Trends** Countries like Russia, China, India, Turkey, and Poland are significantly increasing their gold reserves, reflecting a strategic shift in asset allocation [15] 12. **Drivers of Central Bank Gold Purchases** The primary drivers for increased gold purchases by central banks include high U.S. debt levels and rising risks associated with globalization and trade negotiations [17] 13. **Long-term Trends in Gold Reserves** The trend indicates a significant potential for increasing gold reserves among central banks, especially as the share of dollar-denominated assets declines [18][19] 14. **Future of Central Bank Gold Purchases** The ongoing issues with U.S. debt and credit quality, along with geopolitical uncertainties, suggest that the trend of central banks purchasing gold will continue to rise [20] Other Important but Possibly Overlooked Content - The potential for liquidity traps in the U.S. economy, particularly if unemployment rises and inflation remains high, could lead to further economic challenges [11][12] - The discussion highlights the interconnectedness of global markets and the potential for cascading effects from U.S. economic policies on other economies, particularly in emerging markets [11]

面对下跌，普通投资者现在该怎么做？是止损，持有，还是买入？金国强建议：降低杠杆、逢低布局 （而非追高或恐慌割肉），利用期权保护，现货选ETF，以定投思维持有。 避险退潮与降息预期推迟 金国强指出，本轮金价下跌受两大核心因素驱动。一是避险情绪消退，加沙、俄乌等热点地区局势降 温，市场风险偏好回升。中美日内瓦谈判达成阶段性共识，特朗普政府对等关税政策引发的避险情绪退 潮。二是美联储降息预期弱化，美国6月非农新增就业14.7万人超预期，失业率降至4.1%，通胀数据稳 定，导致7月降息概率跌破10%，延迟至9月后。 期货市场上，主力合约多空双方力量对比发生了哪些关键转折？这些变化是不是揭示了市场情绪的转 变？金国强认为，从期货市场信号来看，机构高位减持，牛市进入"鱼尾阶段"。 资金动向揭示了市场情绪转变。金国强表示，国内外机构同步高位减持。国内期货市场，主力多头持仓 从峰值3万手减至1.3万手，净持仓占比从40%降至33%；海外市场，COMEX黄金管理基金净多持仓占 比从29%降至13%（4月前），5月后反弹至20%，但总持仓量持续萎缩。 本报（chinatimes.net.cn）记者张玫 北京报道 期货市场常被视为 ...

特朗普的关税政策彻底失控。在对日韩盟友分别加征25%关税、加拿大35%、巴西50%税率之后，美国终于对其最重要的盟友——欧盟，挥起了狠刀。根据 彭博社的报道，7月12日，特朗普宣布对欧盟和墨西哥征收30%的关税，涉及24个国家，27个欧盟成员国集体成为目标。欧盟在这一决定面前开始清醒过 来，试图用"讨好美国"的姿态换取更有利的贸易条件，但这一努力最终以失败告终。 法国总统马克龙迅速作出反应，猛烈批评特朗普的"背信弃义"，并扬言要启动欧盟的"反胁迫机制"，这是为了反击特朗普这一明显的不公行为。2024年，欧 盟向美国出口商品总额达6058亿美元，然而从美国进口的商品仅为3702亿美元。如果这项新关税政策得以实施，欧盟27个成员国中的某些国家或将面临巨大 经济损失，甚至可能无法承受。 欧盟委员会主席冯德莱恩表示，欧盟依然希望与美国达成协议，但如果谈判没有实质性进展，欧盟将不得不采取"对等的报复性措施"。与此同时，欧洲央行 行长拉加德也公开表示，欧洲应考虑摆脱对美元的依赖。巴西总统卢拉则提出，巴西将不再使用美元，如果欧盟也能效仿这一举措，将彻底击中特朗普的痛 处，打破美元霸权。 本应由美债危机引发的这场贸易战，反而 ...