Group 1 - In May, the social financing scale increased by 2.29 trillion yuan, with a year-on-year increase of 224.7 billion yuan, and new RMB loans amounted to 620 billion yuan [1] - The broad money supply (M2) grew by 7.9% year-on-year, which is 0.9 percentage points higher than the same period last year, indicating a strong financial growth relative to nominal economic growth [1] - The narrow money supply (M1) increased by 2.3% year-on-year, reflecting a significant acceleration in the growth of "liquid money," which is expected to boost market confidence and economic activities [1] Group 2 - The net financing of government bonds accelerated in May, reaching 1.46 trillion yuan, while local governments issued 443.2 billion yuan in new special bonds, marking a new high for the year [2] - Corporate bond net financing exceeded 140 billion yuan in May, with a downward trend in financing costs, as the average yield on 5-year AAA corporate bonds fell to 1.97% [2] - Despite a lower scale of new RMB loans compared to the same period last year, the RMB loan balance grew by 7.1% year-on-year, indicating stable loan growth [2] Group 3 - In May, nearly 530 billion yuan in new RMB loans were issued to enterprises, supported by a recent interest rate cut that boosted loan demand [3] - The residential sector saw an increase of nearly 54 billion yuan in new RMB loans, reflecting a recovery in the local real estate market [3] - The increased financing through government and corporate bonds is expected to substitute for bank loans, as local governments prefer using special bonds for project funding [3]

Core Viewpoint - The financial data for May indicates a stable growth in total financing, supporting the real economy, with expectations for continued steady growth in financial totals in the near future [1][8]. Group 1: Financial Data Overview - As of the end of May, the total social financing stock was 426.16 trillion yuan, a year-on-year increase of 8.7% [1]. - The broad money (M2) balance was 325.78 trillion yuan, growing by 7.9% year-on-year [1]. - The narrow money (M1) balance reached 108.91 trillion yuan, with a year-on-year growth of 2.3% [1]. - The balance of RMB loans stood at 266.32 trillion yuan, reflecting a year-on-year increase of 7.1% [1]. Group 2: Drivers of Financing Growth - In the first five months of the year, the cumulative increase in social financing was 18.63 trillion yuan, which is 3.83 trillion yuan more than the same period last year [2]. - Government bonds were identified as the primary driver of the rapid growth in social financing, with a significant increase in net financing in the first quarter [2]. - The issuance of special refinancing bonds aimed at replacing hidden local government debts has been notably high, contributing to the increase in government bond financing [2][3]. Group 3: Loan Demand and Economic Activity - In the first five months, RMB loans increased by 10.68 trillion yuan, with 620 billion yuan added in May alone [4]. - The recent interest rate cuts have positively influenced loan demand, with a notable increase in corporate borrowing [4]. - The growth in personal loans in May, amounting to 540 billion yuan, indicates a recovery in economic activity, supported by a rebound in the real estate market and consumer spending [4][5]. Group 4: Monetary Supply and Economic Outlook - The growth rate of "active money" (M1) accelerated significantly, reflecting improved market confidence and a recovery in investment and consumption activities [7]. - M2 growth remained stable at 7.9%, with expectations for continued steady growth in financial totals [8]. - The ongoing proactive fiscal policies are expected to further support the recovery of effective demand in the real economy [8].

报 告 正 文 有效融资需求暂显不足。 5月社融同比保持多增，除了政府债融资保持较高规模以外，低利率带动企业债券融资好转。不过，5月信贷依然偏弱，一方面化债对于企 业贷款的替代效应仍然存在，关税政策也继续影响着企业的融资意愿，反映在企业短期贷款和票据融资整体走弱；另一方面，实体部门融资需求仍然偏弱，降息后 居民的加杠杆意愿尚未有明显增强，财政政策有待加力提效 。 财政资金拨付提振M1。 5月M1增速反弹，一是主要受到去年同期整顿存款"手工补息"带来的低基数影响，二是政府债发行前置，企业现金流趋于改善。5月M2增速 小幅回落，主因5月财政多收少支背景下，政府存款对居民和企业存款增长构成一定压制，不过低基数效应仍然存在。5月末，M2-M1增速差收窄，指向财政资金投 放至实体带动企业资金活化程度好转 。 直接融资支撑社融同比延续多增。 2025年5月社会融资规模增量为2.29万亿元，同比多增额收窄至2271亿元，直接融资是主要的支撑。一方面，5月政府债券融资规 模抬升至1.46万亿元，但同比多增额缩减至2367亿元；另一方面，企业债券净融资规模下降至1496亿元，同比多增额扩大至1211亿元。5月人民币贷款规模增加 ...

Financial Overview - In May 2023, China's social financing scale increased by 2.29 trillion yuan, a year-on-year increase of 224.7 billion yuan, indicating a robust growth in financing activities [1] - The total social financing scale for the first five months of 2023 reached 18.63 trillion yuan, which is 3.83 trillion yuan more than the same period last year [1] Monetary Supply - The broad money supply (M2) reached 325.78 trillion yuan in May, with a year-on-year growth of 7.9%, while the narrow money supply (M1) was 108.91 trillion yuan, growing by 2.3% [2] - The increase in M1 is attributed to a rise in "liquid money," which includes currency in circulation and demand deposits, reflecting improved market confidence and economic activity [2] Loan Growth - The total RMB loan balance stood at 266.32 trillion yuan at the end of May, with a year-on-year growth of 7.1% [2] - Notable growth was observed in inclusive small and micro loans, which increased by 11.6%, and medium to long-term loans for the manufacturing sector, which grew by 8.8% [2] Economic Activity - The reduction in policy interest rates by the central bank in May has encouraged businesses to borrow more, leading to an increase in loan demand [3] - External factors, such as trade negotiations and tariff reductions, have also contributed to increased credit demand from foreign trade enterprises [3] Consumer Loans - The growth in personal loans reflects a recovery in economic activities, with an increase in mortgage loans due to a warming real estate market and a boost in consumer spending driven by promotional events [3] - The central bank's financial support measures, including interest rate cuts and structural monetary policy tools, have started to take effect [3] Future Outlook - Financial growth is expected to remain stable, supported by resilient economic development and increased financing demand in June [4] - The central bank's recent operations, including a 1 trillion yuan reverse repurchase agreement, aim to maintain liquidity in the market [4]

广发证券 资深宏观分析师 钟林楠 zhonglinnan@ gf.com.cn 广发宏观郭磊团队 摘要 第一， 5 月社融增加 2.3 万亿元，同比多增 2271 亿元，略高于 WIND 统计的市场平均预期（ 2.05 万 亿）；社融存量增速为 8.7% ，与上月持平。各分项中，实体信贷同比少增，企业债券、政府债券、外币贷 款同比多增。 正文 5月社融增加 2.3 万亿元，同比多增 2271 亿元，略高于 WIND 统计的市场平均预期（ 2.05 万亿）；社融 存量增速为 8.7% ，与上月持平。各分项中，实体信贷同比少增，企业债券、政府债券、外币贷款同比多 增。 第二， 实体信贷增加 5960 亿元，同比少增 2237 亿元。从 BCI 企业融资环境指数回升来看， 5 月实体部 门感受到的金融条件有所改善，对应供给情况可能并不弱；信贷同比偏弱可能与需求端因素有关：一是化债置 换；二是外贸环境存在不确定性的背景下，企业部门暂缓资本开支；三是政府主导项目有待加速， 5 月政策 性金融债净融资 + 新增 PSL 同比缩量 1890 亿元。 第三， 分主体看，企业部门中长贷增加 3300 亿元，同比少增 1700 ...

金十数据整理：6月13日欧盘美盘重要新闻汇总 国内新闻： 5. 央行将于6月16日开展4000亿元买断式逆回购操作，期限为6个月（182天）。 6. 中国驻以色列使馆提醒在以中国公民加强安全防范。 1. 习近平将出席第二届中国—中亚峰会。 2. 李强主持召开国务院常务会议，听取构建房地产发展新模式和推进好房子建设有关情况汇报；研究优 化药品和耗材集采有关举措。 3. 央行：5月末M2同比增长7.9%，M1同比增长2.3%。 4. 中国人民银行：初步统计，2025年5月末社会融资规模存量为426.16万亿元，同比增长8.7%。 7. 市场监管总局：市场监管部门将组织实施电商平台消费品安全与召回共治承诺。 8. 《广州市提振消费专项行动实施方案（征求意见稿）》公开征求意见。 9. 腾讯没有与创始人的家族联系讨论交易，也没有考虑收购Nexon。 10. 深圳放宽市场准入24条特别措施将加快实施。 布伦特原油 2. 伊朗退出与美国的核谈判。 3. 以色列对伊朗的空袭导致油价日内一度飙升13%，布伦特原油实现了自2022年俄乌冲突以来最大日内 涨幅。 4. 泰国普吉机场：印度航空AI379航班收到炸弹威胁，请求紧急降落 ...

新华财经北京6月13日电（高二山）人民银行13日开展2025亿元7天期逆回购操作，操作利率持平于1.40%；鉴于当日有1350亿元逆回购 到期，公开市场实现净投放675亿元。本周人民银行共开展8582亿元逆回购操作，因当周有9309亿元逆回购到期，公开市场合计实现净 回笼727亿元。 上海银行间同业拆放利率（Shibor）隔夜与14天品种上涨，7天品种下跌。具体来看，隔夜Shibor上涨4.40BP，报1.4110%；7天Shibor下 跌1.30BP，报1.5080%；14天Shibor上涨0.80BP，报1.5430%。 | | | | 2025-06-13 11:00 | | --- | --- | --- | --- | | | 期限 | Shibor(%) | 涨跌(BP) | | 1 | O/N | 1.4110 | 4.40 | | ↑ | 1W | 1.5080 | 1.30 | | 1 | 2W | 1.5430 | 0.80 | | 1 | 1M | 1.6220 | 0.20 | | 中 | 3M | 1.6380 | 0.10 | | t | 6M | 1.6560 | 0.10 | ...

Group 1 - The core viewpoint of the articles highlights the growth in social financing scale driven primarily by government and corporate bonds, indicating a shift towards direct financing methods [1][2] - As of May 2025, the total social financing scale reached 426.16 trillion yuan, with a year-on-year growth of 8.7%, remaining stable compared to the previous month [1] - The balance of loans to the real economy was 262.86 trillion yuan, showing a year-on-year increase of 7%, but a slight decline of 0.1 percentage points from the previous month [1] Group 2 - Government bonds accounted for 20.5% of the total social financing scale, reflecting a significant year-on-year increase of 2.1 percentage points, while corporate bonds made up 7.7%, down 0.4 percentage points [1] - The net financing of government bonds in the first five months of 2025 reached 6.31 trillion yuan, which is an increase of 3.81 trillion yuan compared to the previous year [1][2] - The issuance of special refinancing bonds has been a key factor in replacing bank loans, which may temporarily affect credit volume but ultimately helps alleviate local debt risks [3][4] Group 3 - The trend of bonds substituting loans is becoming more pronounced, with nearly 90% of the social financing scale consisting of bonds and loans, indicating their complementary roles in supporting economic stability [3] - The average yield of 5-year AAA-rated corporate bonds fell to 1.97% in May, encouraging companies to increase bond financing to lower overall financing costs [2][3] - The growth in fixed asset investment funding sources, including government bonds, increased by 16.7% year-on-year, significantly outpacing other funding sources [4] Group 4 - The broad money supply (M2) reached 325.78 trillion yuan, growing by 7.9% year-on-year, while the narrow money supply (M1) was 108.91 trillion yuan, with a growth of 2.3% [5] - The manufacturing PMI improved by 0.5 percentage points in May, indicating a marginal recovery in social confidence and economic activity [5][6] - The consumer price index (CPI) saw a year-on-year decline of 0.1%, while the core CPI rose by 0.6%, suggesting ongoing low inflation levels influenced by supply-demand imbalances [6]

Monetary Policy and Financial Data - The central bank reported that as of the end of May 2025, the broad money supply (M2) reached 325.78 trillion yuan, a year-on-year increase of 7.9% [1] - The narrow money supply (M1) stood at 108.91 trillion yuan, with a year-on-year growth of 2.3% [1] - In the first five months of 2025, RMB loans increased by 1.068 trillion yuan, while RMB deposits rose by 1.473 trillion yuan [1] - The total social financing stock at the end of May 2025 was 426.16 trillion yuan, reflecting a year-on-year growth of 8.7% [1] - The net financing of corporate bonds was 908.7 billion yuan, a decrease of 288.4 billion yuan year-on-year, while government bonds saw a net financing of 6.31 trillion yuan, an increase of 3.81 trillion yuan year-on-year [1] Market Dynamics - The Beijing Stock Exchange announced a continuation of the exemption from bond trading fees to stimulate market activity, effective until December 31, 2026 [4] - The central bank will conduct a 400 billion yuan reverse repurchase operation on June 16, 2025, to maintain liquidity in the banking system [5] - A 2,025 billion yuan reverse repurchase operation was conducted, resulting in a net injection of 675 billion yuan [6] Regional Developments - Hunan Province approved a budget adjustment plan that includes issuing 20 billion yuan in special bonds to address overdue payments to enterprises [7] - Qingdao City is restructuring several state-owned enterprises, planning to invest approximately 30 billion yuan in 87 major projects [9] Bond Issuance - Henan Capital Group has been approved to register 2 billion yuan in medium-term notes, with a validity period of two years [10] - Zhengzhou Development Investment Group has two bond projects under review by the Shenzhen Stock Exchange, totaling 5 billion yuan [11] - The issuance of 5 billion yuan in corporate bonds by Shangqiu Railway Investment Company was completed at an interest rate of 2.47% [13] - Luoyang Urban-Rural Construction Investment Group completed the issuance of 3 billion yuan in corporate bonds at an interest rate of 2.78% [14] - Jiyuan Jikang Technology Company plans to issue 1.5 billion yuan in corporate bonds [15] Credit Ratings and Regulatory Actions - The central bank approved the issuance of technology innovation bonds by several financial institutions, including CICC and CITIC Securities, with amounts up to 150 billion yuan [16] - The China Interbank Market Dealers Association has reduced or canceled 6.16 billion yuan in debt financing tool quotas for three companies [21] Market Sentiment - According to CITIC Research, the average issuance interest rate for technology innovation bonds in May was 1.77%, marking a new low and indicating high investor sentiment [24]

【重点关注】 ·人民银行：5月末广义货币（M2)余额325.78万亿元同比增长7.9% ·中土（耳其）两国央行续签双边本币互换协议并签署在土耳其建立人民币清算安排的合作备忘录 ·市场监管总局：对不履行召回责任的电子商务经营者依法责令召回并加大处罚力度 【国内要闻】 ·人民银行数据显示，5月末，广义货币（M2)余额325.78万亿元，同比增长7.9%。狭义货币（M1)余额 108.91万亿元，同比增长2.3%。流通中货币（M0)余额13.13万亿元，同比增长12.1%。前五个月净投放 现金3064亿元。 ·工信部13日公布2025年1－4月全国锂离子电池行业运行情况。数据显示，2025年1－4月，我国锂离子 电池（下称"锂电池"）产业延续增长态势。根据锂电池行业规范公告企业信息和行业协会测算，1－4月 全国锂电池总产量超过473GWh，同比增长68%。 ·工业和信息化部等八部门公开征求对《汽车数据出境安全指引（2025版）》的意见，汽车数据处理者 向境外提供汽车数据，符合以下情形之一的，应当申报数据出境安全评估：（1）向境外提供重要数 据；（2）自当年1月1日起累计向境外提供100万人以上个人信息（不含敏感个人 ...