一季报持续高增，维持"增持"评级 公司发布2025Q1 季报，实现营收108.2 亿元，同比增长124.0%；实现归母净利润2.1 亿元，同比增长 3344.1%。公司快速拓店，规模效应提升，我们上调盈利预测，预计公司2025-2027 年归母净利润分别 为8.9（+2.3）、11.5（+0.8）、16.6（+1.2）亿元，同比分别增长201.9%、29.5%、44.3%，当期股价对 应PE 分别为29.9、23.1、16.0 倍，维持"增持"评级。 零食量贩增长亮眼，品类拓宽打开空间 公司2024Q1 营收增速为124.0%，其中零食量贩业务持续高增，2025 年初门店数达14196 家，预计 2025Q1 约新开近1000 家门店，公司门店数量持续爬坡，2025 年预计随着华北、南方等区域继续拓店， 门店数量规模有望进一步提升。 公司调整门店店型向省钱超市模式进化，品类从零食水饮向熟食、日化、冻品等方向拓展，提升消费者 粘性，打开拓店空间。另外选品方面公司增加自有品牌，有望进一步提升毛利率，同时夯实公司品牌力 与护城河。 规模效应持续释放，量贩业务利润率有所提升2025Q1 公司毛利率11.0%，同比提升 ...

今日重点推荐 2025 年 04 月 30 日 九号公司（689009）2024 年报和 2025 年一季报点评：25Q1 业绩超预期，新品类放量，盈利能力提升 ◼ 智能短交通先锋，秉承工程师文化，持续推进技术创新和产品迭代，商业 变现能力强，节奏快。考虑到规模效应释放超预期，我们调高 2025-2026 年归母净利预测至 18.98/27.00 亿元（前值为 16.36/22.74 亿元），新增 2027 年预测 36.00 亿元，2025-2027 年同比为 75.1%/42.2%/33.3%,当 前市值对应 PE 为 24X/17X/13X，维持"买入"评级。 ◼ 风险提示：海外消费景气度回落、国内电动两轮车竞争加剧。 (联系人：屠亦婷/张文静) | 指数 | 收盘 | | 涨跌（％） | | | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | | 名称 | （点） | 1 日 | 5 日 | 1 月 | | 上证指数 | 3287 | -0.0 | -1.9 | -0.4 | | 深证综指 | 1902 | 5 0.24 | 3 -6.1 | -0.34 | 贵州茅台（600519）：业绩 ...

润邦股份 20250429 摘要 • 润邦股份 2024 年营收增长 14.5%，主要由物料搬运装备板块驱动，该板 块收入同比增长 57%至 58.94 亿元，而海工板块因业务调整收入同比下 降 52.75%。 • 公司现金流稳健，全年经营现金流达 8 亿元，并计划每 10 股分红 3 元， 总额 2.65 亿元，占净利润比例超 50%，显示出对股东的回报力度。 • 2025 年一季度营收同比小幅下降 3.15%至 13.67 亿元，但归母净利润同 比增长 12.28%至 7,000 万元，物料搬运装备板块收入增长 25%，是主 要增长动力。 • 四季度毛利率显著提升主要得益于交付量增加，全年平均毛利率维持在 20%左右，物料搬运装备板块毛利率提升约 4-5 个百分点，受益于规模效 应带来的成本优势。 • 物料搬运装备板块增长受益于阿里云项目，预计今年物料搬运系统订单总 额约 80 亿元，收入可达 15 亿元，同比增长显著，但阿里云项目逐步交付。 • 港机业务高速增长，预计今年收入达 15 亿元，明年预计为 20-25 亿元， 得益于新增订单和收购卡尔玛相关业务，港机业务制造端毛利预期约为 20%。 • 海工 ...

Summary of Conference Call Notes Company and Industry Overview - The conference call discusses **Changjiang Automobile** and its joint venture with **Tuman Intelligent**, focusing on the **four-wheel drive system** and **screw rod production**. The collaboration aims to leverage both companies' strengths to overcome technical bottlenecks and enhance equipment qualifications and R&D capabilities [2][5]. Key Financial Performance and Growth Factors - In Q1 2025, Changjiang Automobile reported **revenue of 180 million yuan**, a **26% year-on-year increase**, with a profit of approximately **70 million yuan**, reflecting a **37% growth**. The revenue growth is primarily driven by overseas markets, with expectations for continued contributions from traditional business in 2025 [4][40]. - The gross margin for Q1 2025 improved due to **scale effects** and **internal process enhancements**, particularly a **10% increase in assembly line efficiency**. This improvement helped meet the rising demand from clients like BYD [2][6][7]. - The company anticipates **20%+ overall revenue growth** in 2025, with overseas revenue expected to rise from **40% in 2024 to 50% in 2025** [3][40]. Market Expansion and Performance - The Czech market is projected to grow by **80% in 2024**, with a net profit margin of **20%**, while the Mexican market is expected to grow by **30%**. This indicates significant revenue and profitability improvements in overseas markets [2][8]. - BYD is expected to account for approximately **15% of revenue in 2024**, with Volkswagen contributing around **40-50%**, of which **30% is from overseas**. BYD's sales are projected to increase significantly in 2025, potentially enhancing market share for Changjiang [25][37]. Joint Venture and Product Development - The joint venture with Tuman Intelligent will focus on producing screw rods using **extrusion and grinding processes**, targeting both vehicle and robotics sectors. The partnership includes exclusive agreements to protect interests and is expected to start sample deliveries in the second half of 2025 [2][10][21]. - The company is also developing screw rod equipment in collaboration with Tuman, leveraging Tuman's strengths in gear machine tools and grinding machines [11][12]. Challenges and Strategic Considerations - Despite strong overseas growth, the company faces challenges in management, particularly regarding local employee management and initial profit margins. However, the European market remains profitable, and the company is optimistic about its performance [30][31]. - The company plans to maintain a **high capacity utilization rate** of **80-90%** in overseas markets, with ongoing improvements in assembly line efficiency to support profitability [26]. Research and Development - R&D expenses are expected to increase in 2025, particularly for the **magnetic steel project**, with a total budget of **500 million yuan**. The company is in the early stages of this project, with significant investments planned for future phases [47][48]. Conclusion and Investor Communication - The company is in a preliminary R&D phase, with many details remaining confidential. The chairman expresses confidence in the company's future and encourages investors to reach out with any questions [54].

九号公司 20250429 • 公司在欧洲割草机渠道布局持续扩大，先发优势明显。针对美国市场，公 司计划寻找合适代工厂以拓展业务。若美国关税稳定，公司在美国市场的 机会将增加。 Q&A 2025 年第一季度的财务数据表现如何？ 2025 年第一季度，公司营业收入为 51.12 亿元，同比增长 99.52%。归属于 上市公司股东的净利润为 4.56 亿元，同比增长 236.2%。股份支付费用为 0.45 亿元，剔除股份支付费用影响后，归属于上市公司股东的净利润是 5.1 亿 元，同比增长 123.05%。电动两轮车销量 100.38 万台，收入 28.62 亿元； 自主品牌零售滑板车销量 20.67 万台，收入 3.95 亿元；全地形车销量 4,822 台，收入 2.15 亿元；ToB 产品直营收入 8.10 亿元；配件和其他的收入是 8.30 亿元。 电动两轮车业务在未来两个季度的盈利能力如何评估？ 电动两轮车业务在一季度表现强劲，占集团营收和利润约 60%。销售费用、管 理费用同比下降较多，这主要与电动两轮车业务相关。预计二三季度销量将逐 步攀升，因此盈利能力可能提升一到两个百分点。然而，由于新国标的原因， ...

最近某东和某团的外卖大战，轰轰烈烈。原本 28 号那篇打算作为五一节之前的最后一篇，后台有人问 我对外卖大战的看法，于是有了这篇。 为什么要这样？因为这会让他在送餐的时候，电梯会继续往上走。送完餐后，再回到电梯前的时候，电 梯基本恰好从最高层再下来。就能节省他的很多时间。 但是这个慎用哈，因为是部分侵害了现有住户的利益，增加了他们的等待时长。 同样是与外卖员一同乘梯的情形，如果他希望停在某一层以后，我等他一下，等他送完餐立刻回来，我 多半愿意等他。 我每天骑小黄车上下班。到地方以后，我都会把小黄车停的稍微远一点。把离小区门口最近的位置，留 给外卖员。 没有调度系统，就是说，我同时按三部，三部都会到我这一层来。 这个和外卖员是什么关系呢？ 普通人能做点什么 如果我在一楼等电梯，恰好旁边有外卖员也在等，我会选择和外卖员乘坐不同的梯。如果他比我的楼层 高，我如果中途下梯，可能会占用他十秒左右的时间。我不坐，就帮他节省了这十秒。 我现在住的小区，每栋楼 3 部电梯，而且没有电梯的调度系统。调度系统的意思是，我按了 3 部的其中 一部，系统会根据我要去的楼层，以及当时时点各个楼层的按梯情况，选择最适合的一部。 然后，如 ...

Investment Rating - The investment rating for the company is "Buy" with a target price not specified [5] Core Views - The company achieved a revenue of 1 billion yuan in Q1 2025, representing a year-on-year increase of 21.33%, while the net profit attributable to the parent company was 81 million yuan, down 4.97% year-on-year [1] - The automotive motor business showed significant growth, and despite uncertainties in international trade, the company expects continued high growth in automotive parts revenue due to sufficient orders on hand [1][2] - The company is actively pursuing market opportunities, with dishwasher products already certified by CQC and EU CE, and other product categories are also being developed [1] - The automotive parts segment is expected to improve long-term profitability, with a gross margin of 15.8% in Q1 2025, down 1.6 percentage points year-on-year [2] - The company plans to expand its customer base and overseas production capacity, including new facilities in Vietnam and Thailand, to ensure stable and flexible product supply [3] Financial Summary - Revenue is projected to grow from 2,775.13 million yuan in 2023 to 7,081.52 million yuan in 2027, with growth rates of 43.19%, 47.56%, 24.62%, 18.62%, and 16.98% respectively [4] - The net profit attributable to the parent company is expected to increase from 322.18 million yuan in 2023 to 722.29 million yuan in 2027, with growth rates of 7.92%, 27.51%, 22.24%, 21.45%, and 18.42% respectively [4] - The company’s earnings per share (EPS) is projected to rise from 0.87 yuan in 2023 to 1.94 yuan in 2027 [4] - The price-to-earnings (P/E) ratio is expected to decrease from 21.99 in 2023 to 9.81 in 2027, indicating an attractive valuation over time [4]

Investment Rating - The report maintains a "Buy" rating for the company, indicating an expected relative increase in stock price of over 20% compared to the benchmark index within the next six months [6][12]. Core Insights - The company reported Q1 2025 revenue of 980 million yuan, a year-on-year increase of 22.3%, and a net profit attributable to shareholders of 100 million yuan, up 28.8% year-on-year, exceeding expectations [4][5]. - International business growth is a key driver, with significant contributions from zipper and button segments, particularly from overseas brands, while domestic growth is hindered by retail market conditions [5]. - The gross margin improved by 0.9 percentage points to 38.8%, attributed to product mix changes and scale effects, although increased R&D and management expenses slightly impacted profitability [5]. Financial Summary - Revenue projections for 2024 to 2027 are 4.674 billion yuan, 5.029 billion yuan, 5.643 billion yuan, and 6.335 billion yuan, respectively, with growth rates of 19.66%, 7.59%, 12.19%, and 12.28% [10]. - Net profit attributable to shareholders is forecasted to be 700 million yuan, 767 million yuan, 861 million yuan, and 960 million yuan for the same period, with growth rates of 25.48%, 9.58%, 12.19%, and 11.55% [10]. - The company’s PE ratio is projected to decrease from 18.79 in 2024 to 13.70 in 2027, indicating improving valuation over time [10].

事件概述 近期公司发布2024 年年报&2025 年一季报，2024 年营收209.83 亿元（+3.0%），归母净利润35.6 亿元 （+5.9%），扣非归母净利润31.0 亿元（-11.8%）。 投资建议 由于当前消费环境承压，我们调整公司盈利预测：预计公司2025-2026 年营收分别为234.3、259.6 亿元 （原值为240.8、274.7 亿元），对应增速分别为11.7%、10.8%；归母净利润为40.7、46.5 亿元（原值为 43.2、50.7 亿元），对应增速分别为14.5%、14.2%，EPS 为0.44、0.50 元（原值为0.46、0.54元）；新 增2027 年收入为286.0 亿元，归母净利润为53.6 亿元，EPS 为0.57 元，对应2025 年4 月28 日13.13 元/股 收盘价，PE 分别为30/26/23X；维持"买入"评级。 风险提示 扩张速度低于预期；医疗事故或行业负面事件风险；行业竞争加剧风险；行业政策风险。 屈光、视光增长略承压，基础眼病不改长期发展趋势分业务看，2024 年屈光、视光、白内障、眼前 段、眼后段业务收入分别为76.0、52.8、34.9、19 ...

Investment Rating - The investment rating for the company is "Buy" [5] Core Insights - The company reported a revenue of 20.983 billion yuan in 2024, reflecting a year-on-year growth of 3.0%, and a net profit attributable to shareholders of 3.556 billion yuan, up 5.9% [1] - The first quarter of 2025 saw a revenue of 6.026 billion yuan, representing a 16.0% increase, and a net profit of 1.050 billion yuan, which is a 16.7% rise [1] - The company is expected to achieve revenues of 23.430 billion yuan and 25.960 billion yuan in 2025 and 2026, respectively, with corresponding growth rates of 11.7% and 10.8% [4] Business Performance - In 2024, the revenue from various business segments was as follows: refractive (7.60 billion yuan, +2.3%), vision care (5.28 billion yuan, +6.4%), cataract (3.49 billion yuan, +4.9%), anterior segment (1.90 billion yuan, +6.0%), and posterior segment (1.50 billion yuan, +8.2%) [2] - The company achieved an outpatient volume of 16.94 million visits and performed 1.29 million surgeries in 2024, marking increases of 12.1% and 9.4%, respectively [3] Financial Projections - The projected earnings per share (EPS) for 2025 and 2026 are 0.44 yuan and 0.50 yuan, respectively, with a net profit forecast of 4.070 billion yuan and 4.649 billion yuan [4] - The company’s gross margin is expected to stabilize around 49.8% in 2025 and improve to 50.1% in 2026 [9] Market Position - The company has established a global medical service network with 974 facilities worldwide, including 811 in mainland China [3] - The overseas revenue reached 2.63 billion yuan in 2024, accounting for 12.5% of total revenue, indicating a growing international presence [3]