白银市场则更为疯狂。Investinglive分析师Adam Button称，这是白银市场"有史以来最辉煌的日子之一"，这种行情在大宗商品市场极为罕见。年初至今，白 银价格已上涨50%，远超黄金涨幅。分析指出，由于白银市场体量远小于黄金，且流动性相对较低，这使其价格更容易出现剧烈波动。 Button指出，白银已突破100美元这一关键心理关口，"本来被视为价格回调的测试点，结果却引发了惊人的上涨。"他警告称，虽然市场热情高涨，但随着 价格不断飙升，本周可能再次迎来保证金水平的调整，且券商可能收紧交易权限。 黄金价格延续涨势，在周一突破每盎司5100美元，再度刷新历史新高。此次突破不仅远超华尔街此前对黄金年内表现的预期，也成为当前全球金融市场的重 大标志事件。与此同时，白银也在同一时期大幅上涨，盘中一度突破115美元/盎司，年内涨幅已达50%，表现超越黄金。 贵金属的迅猛上涨，被广泛视为投资者对"货币贬值"风险的强烈反应。在全球政府债务持续膨胀、通胀压力挥之不去的背景下，黄金、白银等实物资产成为 市场资金竞相追逐的避风港。 布鲁金斯学会高级研究员Robin Brooks指出，黄金的飙升代表着"更大格局"的开始，即 ...

智通财经APP获悉，黄金价格延续涨势，在周一突破每盎司5100美元，再度刷新历史新高。此次突破不 仅远超华尔街此前对黄金年内表现的预期，也成为当前全球金融市场的重大标志事件。与此同时，白银 也在同一时期大幅上涨，盘中一度突破115美元/盎司，年内涨幅已达50%，表现超越黄金。 牛市是否可持续？ 尽管白银涨势如虹，Button仍保持谨慎。他表示，按通胀调整后，1980年白银价格(当年受亨特兄弟操 纵市场影响)相当于现在的195美元/盎司，"当前价格仍仅为当时实际峰值的一半。"因此，虽存在进一步 上涨的空间，他提醒投资者不要盲目追涨，而应保持理性，特别是已经持仓的投资者，可以考虑分批止 盈或继续坚定持有。 贵金属的迅猛上涨，被广泛视为投资者对"货币贬值"风险的强烈反应。在全球政府债务持续膨胀、通胀 压力挥之不去的背景下，黄金、白银等实物资产成为市场资金竞相追逐的避风港。 全球事件推动贵金属避险需求 布鲁金斯学会高级研究员Robin Brooks指出，黄金的飙升代表着"更大格局"的开始，即全球债务危机的 前兆。他警告称："市场越来越担心各国政府将通过通胀来'稀释'失控的债务。"Brooks补充说，美元自 2026年 ...

Group 1 - The Iranian intelligence department has conducted large-scale operations in Yazd province, successfully identifying and arresting over 150 core members suspected of leading recent unrest. These individuals are described as "leaders of turmoil" with deep connections to foreign forces and illegal organizations [1] - In Golestan province, the Iranian intelligence department arrested 40 core members involved in damaging public property and disturbing social order, aided by close surveillance and public reports [3] - In Semnan province, police announced the arrest of 19 suspects involved in the recent unrest, who not only participated in the destruction and burning of public and private property but also allegedly incited and encouraged other demonstrators to join the riots [3] Group 2 - Protests in Iran have erupted since late last year due to rising prices and currency devaluation, leading to violent unrest that severely impacted social order in multiple cities [3] - Iranian President Ebrahim Raisi stated that the recent unrest is a continuation of a series of "failed conspiracies" by the United States and Israel [3]

今日周日，白银市场休市。本周白银一度落后于黄金的强势表现，不少分析师据此认为白银即将出现明 显回调，但白银在短暂调整后仍选择向上突破，这充分表明市场对其潜在爆发力的认可与信心并未动 摇。同时，交易者将100美元水平视为关键的心理和结构门槛。白银已经突破了主要阻力区，使该整数 处于近距离范围内。 白银价格保持在上升的九日均线之上，而五十日均线继续上升并支撑中期趋势。趋势强度通过九日均线 与五十日均线之间的扩大差距得到确认，保持多头的主导。 【要闻速递】 14天相对强弱指数(RSI)为74.66(超买)表明动能已被拉伸，可能会出现盘整。超买条件可能会引发暂 停，但只要价格保持在短期均线之上，上升趋势仍然完好。若出现回调，将保持上行偏向，并为突破上 升通道上边界99.80美元及心理关口100.00美元打开空间。 Capital.com高级市场分析师凯尔-罗达表示："对美国及其资产的信心已经动摇，也许是永久性的动摇， 这正在促使资金流入贵金属。因此最近'断裂'(rupture)一词频频被提起，我认为这并不夸张。"美元指数 周五徘徊在两周多来的低点附近，一周内下跌了1%，这使得以美元计价的金属对海外买家来说更加便 宜。 ...

↑点击上面图片 加雪球核心交流群 ↑ 风险提示：本文所提到的观点仅代表个人的意见，所涉及标的不作推荐，据此买卖，风险自负。 作者：摩根在野 来源：雪球 "2025年的真正故事并非是股市或人工智能，而是货币价值的崩溃以及远离美国资产的转变。" 近期，桥水基金创始人Ray Dalio（瑞·达利欧）发布了最新的"2025年度报告与展望"。 曾经那本很火的畅销书《原则》，就是他写的。老爷子在投资领域非常成功，桥水基金旗下的"全天候策略"产品多年以来业绩优异，在海内外有非 常多的拥趸，每次他的新书和新的观点，总会对投资者有重要的参考意义。 这次Ray Dalio老爷子到底讲了啥？他对2025年的总结是什么？有哪些建议？作为全球多元配置的投资者，应该如何看待他的总结和建议？2026年 的多元资产配置应该如何调整？今天仔细研究了报告，下面我就来逐一解读。 一、瑞·达利欧的2025年总结 首先，老爷子并未被表面繁荣的美国股市所迷惑，而是发出了关于"金钱价值"和"资产泡沫"的深刻警告，他主要观点如下： 他指出，最关键的不是股票涨了多少，而是钱变得不值钱。如果以黄金（他视为唯一的非信用货币）计价，美元在2025年实际上大幅贬值。 ...

Group 1 - The core viewpoint of the articles discusses the implications of the appreciation of the Chinese yuan against the US dollar, highlighting both short-term and long-term effects on the export and foreign trade sectors [1] - The current exchange rate is approximately 6.3 yuan per dollar, with predictions that it may drop below 6 yuan by the end of the year, which could impact the price competitiveness of Chinese exports [1] - Despite the yuan's appreciation, the ongoing reliance on Chinese goods due to overseas factory shutdowns from the pandemic has mitigated the negative impact on the export sector [1] Group 2 - The strength of the yuan is attributed to China's relatively stable economic fundamentals compared to the US, where excessive money printing has raised concerns about the dollar's future [1] - The article contrasts the situation in Turkey, where the lira has depreciated over 50% against the dollar in six months, leading to severe economic consequences, including a significant drop in GDP per capita [1] - The rapid depreciation of the lira has resulted in inflation exceeding 30%, with the Turkish government struggling to address the crisis through wage increases that may exacerbate inflation [1][3] Group 3 - The Federal Reserve is expected to raise interest rates at least three times in the coming year to combat 7% inflation in the US, which could have adverse effects on other economies, particularly Turkey [3] - The global economic cycle is influenced by US monetary policy, with Turkey's currency and debt crisis being highlighted as a potential victim of this global monetary storm [3]

Core Viewpoint - The South Korean President Lee Jae-myung indicated that the Korean won may strengthen in the next two months, stabilizing around 1,400 won per dollar, while noting that the recent depreciation is not unique to South Korea [1] Group 1 - The Korean won has depreciated over 8% against the US dollar since the second half of 2025, reaching its lowest level since the global financial crisis [1] - Policymakers' measures and market interventions have failed to prevent the won's decline [1] - The Japanese yen has faced even greater pressure compared to the won [1]

Core Viewpoint - Citigroup indicates that the Indonesian Rupiah faces further depreciation risks due to increased imports ahead of Ramadan, seasonal dividend repatriation, and ongoing fiscal concerns [1] Group 1 - Citigroup previously projected that the USD/IDR exchange rate would rise to 17,200 within the next six to twelve months [1] - The risk of the exchange rate surpassing this level has significantly increased according to strategists Rohit Garg and Gordon Goh [1]

Group 1 - The core viewpoint of the article highlights the recent unrest in Iran, which has resulted in over 3,700 police officers being injured [1] - The unrest is primarily driven by protests against rising prices and currency devaluation, leading to violent incidents affecting both security personnel and civilians [1]

Core Viewpoint - The article discusses the diverging fates of gold compared to cyclical commodities like copper and oil, predicting a significant rise in gold prices driven by structural demand, U.S. macroeconomic policies, and the need to suppress real interest rates [1][2]. Group 1: Key Drivers of Gold Prices - The first key driver is the structural increase in global demand, particularly from central banks, with China's diversification of foreign reserves significantly impacting the market [4]. - The second driver is the "currency devaluation cycle," where institutional investors favor gold as the U.S. seeks to devalue its currency amid a dual crisis of public debt and fiscal deficits [4]. - The third and most critical variable is the suppression of real interest rates, which the U.S. government aims to achieve to manage public debt repayment pressures [5]. Group 2: Divergence from Other Commodities - The traditional correlation between a weak dollar benefiting all commodities is deemed ineffective, with gold and cyclical commodities like copper and oil heading towards different outcomes [2][6]. - Despite a weak dollar, the correlation logic between the dollar and cyclical commodities is breaking down, indicating that the expected commodity supercycle may not materialize [6][8]. - The article emphasizes that in a period of weak global growth and a declining dollar, emerging markets and cyclical commodities may not perform well, as their key driver is growth rather than currency [8].