Group 1 - The Brazilian real depreciated by 1% against the US dollar in spot trading [1]

Core Viewpoint - The significant rise in gold prices in 2023, from 620 CNY per gram to a peak of 836 CNY per gram, has sparked a nationwide investment trend in gold, reminiscent of the "golden aunt" phenomenon in 2013, raising questions about the sustainability of this trend [2] Historical Context of Gold Price Surges First Phase (1970-1980) - Gold prices surged from 35 USD to 850 USD, marking a 2300% increase following the collapse of the Bretton Woods system [4] - This phase led to global central banks adjusting their foreign exchange reserves, increasing gold purchases and challenging the dollar's dominance [5] - Gold production entered an expansion cycle, with countries like South Africa and Russia ramping up mining activities [5] - The oil crisis and high inflation positioned gold as a key asset against currency devaluation [5] - The Federal Reserve was compelled to adopt aggressive interest rate hikes, reaching 20%, to curb inflation, which ultimately ended the gold bull market but initiated the development of modern financial derivatives like gold futures [5] Second Phase (2008-2011) - Following the 2008 financial crisis, gold experienced a second bull market with a 166% increase [7] - The demand for gold as a safe haven led to the democratization of investment, exemplified by the rise of gold ETFs and regular central bank gold purchases [7] - The consumer market saw structural changes, with high gold prices driving a shift towards lightweight jewelry and innovations in gold leasing and collateral financing [7] Third Phase (2018-Present) - The current bull market, driven by geopolitical tensions and policy conflicts, has seen gold prices rise over 100% from 2018 to 2025 [9] - Increased market volatility and speculative trading in futures markets have been observed, with COMEX gold futures premiums reaching 60 USD per ounce and physical inventory surging by 18.6 million ounces in a month [9] - Competition from alternative assets has become more pronounced, with significant growth in platinum orders and a 30% increase in sales of K-gold and silver jewelry in China [9] - Fluctuations in monetary policy have led to a shift in the correlation between gold and U.S. equities, reflecting gold's dual role as a safe haven and a risk asset [9]

由于关税引发的衰退和滞胀风险，摩根大通认为，黄金的结构性牛市将继续增强。 摩根大通Gregory C. Shearer团队在22日的研报中预测， 黄金价格将于2025年第四季度达到均价3675美元/盎司，并在2026年第二季度突破4000美元/盎司关 口。 | Figure 1: JPM gold & silver price forecasts | | --- | | | | 4Q2024A | A WE SCHERESS: WARRENDER BREIN SECTION SECTION SEE WINNER 2024A | 1Q2025A | 202025 | 3Q2025 | 4Q2025 | 2025 | 1Q2026 | 2Q2026 | 3Q2026 | 4Q2026 | 2026 | | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | | | New | 2,664 | 2,389 | 2,872 | 3.400 | 3,515 | 3 675 | 3,365 | 3,840 ...

智通财经4月9日电，智利比索兑美元贬值至1000下方，为1月22日以来首次。 ...

截至3月4日，投机资金的日元兑美元净买入量达到13.3651万手，比上周增加约4成，创出历史最高 纪录。市场上特朗普牵制日元贬值的看法加强，投机资金增加了押注日元升值的交易…… 美国商品期货交易委员会(CFTC)的数据显示，截至3月4日，对冲基金等非商业部门(投机资金)的日元兑 美元净买入量达到13.3651万手（约1.67万亿日元），比上周增加约4成，创出历史最高纪录。受美国总 统特朗普牵制日元贬值的言论和美国经济不稳定的影响，日元买入和美元卖出的趋势有所加强。 日经中文网 https://cn.nikkei.com 受投机资金买入日元的影响，现货市场的日元兑美元升值正在加强。3月7日，日元一度升值至1美元兑 146日元左右，创出了自2024年10月上旬以来、时隔约4个月的最高水平。在3月10日的东京市场，也一 度升值至147日元左右。 另一方面，也有观点认为日元升值不会长期持续。持有日元多头头寸会产生美日利差导致的成本。因 此，如果日元升值变得难以预测，平掉日元多头持仓的趋势就容易加强。索尼金融集团的高级分析师森 本淳太郎表示，"短期内，日元有可能会升值到1美元兑145日元左右，但或许不会转变为长期的日元 ...

"明天（周二），对加拿大征收25%的关税，对墨西哥征收25%的关税，这将从明天开始。因 此，他们将被征收关税，而他们必须做的就是在美国建造汽车厂，坦率地说，还有其他东西。 在这种情况下，你们就没有关税了。"特朗普周一在白宫说。 此前，在这些国家同意帮助解决芬太尼走私和移民问题后，特朗普将关税推迟了一个月，但他 的团队表示，尽管三国政府进行了数周的会谈，但他对毒品走私方面的进展还不满意。 以下文章来源于金十财经 ，作者金十小金 金十财经 . 每日8点，为您呈上金融投资行业的国际动态、财经数据和市场观察。 来源 | 金十财经 美国总统特朗普表示，美国将从周二起对加拿大和墨西哥的商品征收25%的关税，并宣称与美 国邻国 "已没有谈判的余地"。这是对美国最大的两个贸易伙伴的广泛攻击，浇灭了避免全面贸 易战的希望，凸显了他推动重塑全球贸易的决心。 当地时间3月3日，加拿大安大略省省长福特针对美国关税威胁表示，如果美国加征关税，安大 略省将削减对美国边境各州的 电力 出口。他表示，"他们依赖我们的电力，他们需要感受到痛 苦。他们想对我们发起猛烈进攻，我们也会加倍反击。"据悉，美国是加拿大电力的主要客 户，除得克萨斯州外， ...