Core Insights - The lead prices in China have shown a slight increase, with the average price for 1 lead reported at 16,850 CNY per ton, up by 10 CNY from the previous day [1] - The futures market for lead also reflects a positive trend, with the main contract closing at 16,875 CNY per ton, marking a 0.27% increase [2] Price Overview - The current market prices for 1 lead ingots vary by region, with Shanghai Huato reporting 16,850 CNY per ton and Guangdong Nanchu at 16,800 CNY per ton [2] - The trading volume in the futures market reached 32,431 contracts on August 7 [2] Production and Inventory Insights - A survey of 35 primary lead smelting enterprises indicates a total capacity of 4.567 million tons, with a production increase expected in August 2025 [3] - The London Metal Exchange (LME) reported an increase in lead inventory, with registered warrants at 196,225 tons and total inventory at 269,400 tons [3] Market Analysis - According to a report from Wenkang Futures, the supply of primary lead ingots is tightening due to a decrease in visible inventory and raw material shortages [4] - The recycling sector is also facing raw material constraints, although the operating rate for recycled lead smelting is gradually increasing [4] - Environmental regulations have led to some recycled lead plants in Anhui to halt production, contributing to the upward pressure on lead prices [4]

Core Viewpoint - The lead futures market is experiencing cautious sentiment with expectations of limited upward movement in prices due to weak demand and supply dynamics [2][3][4] Group 1: Market Performance - On August 6, lead futures saw a rapid increase, peaking at 16,935.00 yuan, with the main contract closing at 16,855.00 yuan, reflecting a 0.84% increase [1] Group 2: Institutional Perspectives - New Lake Futures maintains a cautious bearish outlook on lead prices, citing insufficient demand and concerns over the impact of anti-dumping taxes on lead-acid batteries from the Middle East [2] - Copper Crown Jin Yuan Futures predicts a weak short-term performance for lead prices, influenced by cautious purchasing behavior and increased supply [3] - Wenkang Futures notes limited upward potential for lead prices, with a tightening supply of primary lead ingots and a gradual increase in domestic inventory [4]

Group 1 - The core viewpoint of the article highlights the current state of the lead market, including spot and futures prices, inventory levels, and strategic recommendations for trading [1] Group 2 - On August 5, 2025, LME lead spot premium was reported at -47.86 USD/ton, while SMM 1 lead ingot spot price decreased to 16,600 CNY/ton, a drop of 100 CNY/ton compared to the previous change [1] - The Shanghai lead futures market saw the main contract open at 16,750 CNY/ton and close at 16,775 CNY/ton, reflecting an increase of 25 CNY/ton [1] - Total SMM lead ingot inventory was 72,000 tons, a decrease of 0.11 million tons from the previous week, while LME lead inventory stood at 272,975 tons, down by 1,100 tons [1] Group 3 - The article suggests a cautious bullish strategy, recommending to attempt buying on dips within the range of 16,000 - 16,300 CNY/ton for hedging purposes, while advising to pause on arbitrage strategies [1] - Risks mentioned include a significant increase in domestic supply, lower-than-expected consumption, and tightening overseas liquidity [1]

1. Report Industry Investment Rating No relevant content provided. 2. Core Viewpoints of the Report - The raw material - lead concentrate remains in short supply. The processing fees for domestic lead concentrates rich in gold, silver and high - silver content silver - lead ores have decreased, and the supply of imported lead concentrates rich in precious metals and small metals is tight with a significant decline in tender prices. The supply of scrap batteries is still tight, but as the lead price drops, the losses of secondary lead smelters widen, and the scrap battery prices have loosened [3]. - On the supply side, the primary lead smelters that had undergone maintenance are resuming production. For secondary lead, the start - up rate is slowly increasing with the expectation of the peak season, but the raw material price decline is less than that of the lead price, and the uncertainty of smelter start - up is high [3]. - On the demand side, the downstream shows a differentiated trend. The demand for electric bicycles is good, and enterprises are increasing their purchases of lead ingots. The export of lead - acid batteries for complete vehicles is affected by weak demand and tariffs, and the start - up rate has not improved significantly [3]. - In terms of trading and inventory, the price of secondary lead is inverted compared with electrolytic lead, and downstream buyers prefer electrolytic lead. Although the inventory of secondary lead plants is decreasing, the overall social inventory of lead ingots is still increasing [3]. - Considering the support from the raw material side, it is expected that the short - term decline space of the lead price is limited, and the operating range is expected to be between 16,500 - 17,500 yuan/ton. Continued attention should be paid to the start - up situation of secondary lead smelters under the conditions of cost inversion and raw material shortage [3]. 3. Summary According to the Catalog 3.1 Market Review - **Price Changes**: The average price of SMM1 lead ingots decreased by 1.19% to 16,550 yuan/ton week - on - week. The closing price of the main contract of Shanghai lead futures decreased by 1.30% to 16,735 yuan/ton. The closing price (electronic trading) of London lead decreased by 2.30% to 1,974 US dollars/ton [12]. - **Basis**: No specific analysis of the basis is provided in the text other than showing the historical basis data graphs. 3.2 Raw Material Situation - **Lead Concentrate**: The domestic lead concentrate processing fee remained flat at 500 yuan/metal ton week - on - week, and the imported lead concentrate processing fee remained flat at - 60 US dollars/dry ton. The expectation of tight concentrate supply remains unchanged, and the TC quotation is stable with a weakening trend. As of July 25, the smelter profit (excluding by - product revenues such as zinc and copper) was 101.5 yuan/ton [25]. - **Scrap Batteries**: As of August 1, the average price of scrap batteries was 10,200 yuan/ton, a week - on - week decrease of 50 yuan/ton. As the lead price dropped, the losses of smelters widened, and the scrap battery prices slightly followed the downward trend [39]. 3.3 Supply Side - **Primary Lead**: The start - up rate of primary lead increased to 63.9% week - on - week. The total weekly output of major primary lead smelters increased from 46,875 tons in the week of July 25 to 51,325 tons this week, mainly due to the resumption of production after maintenance in some regions [26][31]. - **Secondary Lead**: The start - up rate of secondary lead increased by 3.7 percentage points to 44.4%. As of last Friday, the weekly output of secondary lead was 47,500 tons, showing an upward trend. A large - scale smelter in Inner Mongolia resumed production and increased output, driving the significant increase in the start - up rate. However, the supply of scrap batteries is still tight, and some smelters said they would stop production when the raw materials are insufficient to support production [49]. 3.4 Demand Side The start - up rate of lead - acid batteries remained flat at 71.86%. The electric bicycle industry has entered the traditional peak season, and some enterprises have increased production and built inventories. Especially after the lead price dropped, the purchasing enthusiasm improved significantly. The production of automotive lead - acid batteries is mainly based on sales [55]. 3.5 Import and Export - As of July 25, the export of refined lead suffered a loss of about 2,300 yuan/ton. As of August 1, the import profit was - 528.2 yuan/ton, and the import profit window was closed [65]. 3.6 Inventory - **Domestic Social Inventory**: As of July 31, the total social inventory of lead ingots in five locations was 73,000 tons, showing an increase. Although the inventory of mainstream smelters decreased, the overall social inventory increased due to the phased increase in supply [75]. - **Exchange Inventories**: As of August 1, the SHFE refined lead inventory was 63,300 tons, showing a week - on - week increase. As of July 31, the LME inventory was 275,300 tons, also showing an increase [78]. - **Monthly Supply - Demand Balance Sheet**: The table shows the production, export, import, consumption and inventory data of primary lead and secondary lead from August 2024 to June 2025, reflecting the supply - demand relationship and inventory changes in different months [79].

Report Industry Investment Rating No relevant content provided. Core Views of the Report - The global lead market shows a large visible inventory pressure, and the expected increase in supply from new capacity will suppress lead prices. However, the cost support is relatively stable, and the potential production cut expectation caused by refinery losses also provides a bottom - support for lead prices. It is expected that the lead price will fluctuate widely in August, and its upside space depends on the actual improvement in the consumption end [2][72][73]. Summary According to the Directory 1. Lead Market Review - In July, the main contract price of Shanghai lead showed a volatile decline. Affected by factors such as the passing of the US bill, good domestic PMI data, and the approaching consumption peak season at the beginning of the month, the lead price was firm. In the middle of the month, due to factors like inventory increase and less - than - expected downstream consumption improvement, the lead price adjusted. After the news of some Middle - Eastern countries imposing additional tariffs on lead - battery exports, the lead price decline was magnified. Finally, it closed at 16,735 yuan/ton, with a monthly decline of 2.7%. The London lead price first declined and then rose, closing at 1,969.5 US dollars/ton at the end of the month, with a monthly decline of 3.93% [7]. 2. Lead Fundamental Analysis 2.1 Lead Ore Supply Situation - **Global lead concentrate supply is slowly recovering**: From January to May 2025, the global cumulative lead concentrate production was 1.8111 million tons, with a cumulative year - on - year increase of 2.5%. Overseas mine production showed different year - on - year changes, indicating a slow recovery rhythm. In China, from January to June, the cumulative lead concentrate production was 787,000 tons, with a cumulative year - on - year increase of 13%. It is expected that the global lead concentrate supply will continue to recover in the second half of the year, with an expected overseas increase of 100,000 tons and a domestic increase of about 70,000 tons, and the global lead mine production growth rate will be 2.3% to 4620,000 tons [10][11]. - **Lead concentrate processing fees remain low, and the demand for silver concentrate imports is increasing**: In August, the average domestic lead concentrate processing fee was 500 yuan/metal ton, a month - on - month decrease of 100 yuan/metal ton; the import processing fee was - 60 US dollars/dry ton, a month - on - month decrease of 15 US dollars/dry ton. The import of lead concentrate maintained a loss, but the monthly import volume remained at a relatively high level. In June, the silver concentrate import volume was 126,000 tons, and the cumulative import volume from January to June was 847,000 tons. With the continuous high price of by - product silver, the import demand remained high [18][20]. 2.2 Refined Lead Supply Situation - **Global refined lead supply growth is slow**: From January to May 2025, the global cumulative refined lead production was 5.5066 million tons, with a cumulative year - on - year decrease of 1.8%. It is predicted that the global refined lead production in 2025 will be 13.272 million tons, with a year - on - year increase of 0.6% [22]. - **Refineries are resuming production, and the electrolytic lead production in August is expected to increase month - on - month**: In July, the electrolytic lead production was 321,700 tons, a month - on - month decrease of 2.1%. It is expected that the production in August will be 338,200 tons, a month - on - month increase of 5.13% [26]. - **The price of waste batteries remains high, and new projects contribute to the increase in production**: In July, the price of waste batteries fluctuated slightly. It is expected that the price will remain firm in August. In July, the production of recycled refined lead was 258,000 tons, a month - on - month increase of 13.96%. It is expected that the production in August will be 273,900 tons, a month - on - month increase of 6.16% [32][33]. 2.3 Refined Lead Demand Situation - **Global refined lead demand situation**: From January to May 2025, the global cumulative refined lead consumption was 5.4887 million tons, with a cumulative year - on - year increase of 2.69%. It is expected that the global refined lead demand in 2025 will increase by 1.5% to 13.19 million tons, and the global refined lead supply will exceed demand by 82,000 tons [44]. - **Lead - battery enters the traditional consumption peak season, and the sector shows differentiation**: In July, the consumption of electric bicycle batteries was good, while the consumption of automobile starting batteries was mixed. In August, it is expected that the battery consumption will continue to be differentiated [48]. - **The Shanghai - London ratio is not conducive to lead ingot and battery exports, and imports supplement raw material ratios**: In June, the refined lead export volume decreased month - on - month, and the import volume increased year - on - year. The high Shanghai - London ratio is not conducive to lead ingot exports, and the battery export is also affected by factors such as tariff increases [49][50]. - **Policy guidance improves the marginal consumption prospects of lead - batteries**: In the automobile sector, the battery replacement demand is stable, and the new - car demand is expected to continue to be good. In the electric bicycle sector, the replacement demand is large, and policies such as trade - in and new national standards will stimulate consumption. In the energy - storage sector, the demand for lead - batteries is expected to grow [58][60][62]. 2.4 Global Visible Inventory is Rising - In July, the global visible lead inventory was under pressure. The LME inventory remained high, and the domestic lead ingot inventory increased. If the consumption in August does not improve significantly, the inventory may continue to rise [67]. 3. Summary and Future Outlook - The supply of primary lead is expected to increase in August, but the refinery profit is compressed. The supply of recycled lead is expected to be stable with a slight increase, but there is a possibility of unexpected production cuts. The demand is differentiated, and the traditional consumption peak season is slightly lower than expected. The lead price is expected to fluctuate widely in August, and its upside depends on the consumption improvement [72][73].

Report Industry Investment Rating - Not provided Core View - This week, lead prices were weakly operating. The fading of the low - price involution sentiment had a certain impact. Supply increased slightly, while demand remained sluggish. In the short term, both warehouse receipts and inventories showed signs of accumulation, indicating poor demand. It is expected that the price will maintain a volatile trend. The overall view is that lead prices will mainly fluctuate [3]. Summary by Related Catalogs 1. Market Performance - This week, lead prices showed a range - bound trend, closing at 16,735 yuan per ton. The domestic lead ingot inventory in five locations was 73,000 tons, and the LME inventory was 275,300 tons [2]. 2. Industry Performance - In late July, the pb50 TC processing fee of a silver - lead mine in North China was lowered to - 500 yuan/metal ton. The silver content was about 3000 - 4000g/physical ton, and the silver pricing coefficient was 0.95. Small amounts of other minor metals such as antimony were present, and copper and zinc did not reach the starting pricing content and were not priced separately [2]. 3. Supply - side Situation - This week, there were many news about smelters resuming work and undergoing maintenance, and the impact on lead prices remains to be investigated. Primary lead smelters had a strong production willingness due to the expected peak demand season. For recycled lead, due to cost support and the scarcity of raw material waste batteries, the recycled lead smelting end was still in a loss state, with a weak willingness to start production [3]. 4. Demand - side Situation - This week, the operating rate of lead - acid batteries was 71.86%, remaining stable. Some battery enterprises had started stockpiling for the peak season, but since it was still in the transition stage, demand was still weak in the short term. Whether consumption can pick up in August remains to be seen [3].

Report Industry Investment Rating - Not provided in the report Core Viewpoints - The visible inventory of lead ore continues to decline, and the raw materials at the primary end are relatively tight, leading to a marginal tightening of the supply of primary lead ingots. At the secondary end, the raw materials remain in short supply, but the smelting start - up rate of secondary lead has increased marginally. The downstream start - up rate remains relatively high, and the domestic inventory is rising slowly. Overall, the supply of lead ingots remains loose, and it is expected that lead prices will mainly fluctuate weakly [11]. Summary by Directory 1. Weekly Assessment - **Price Review**: The Shanghai Lead Index closed up 0.07% at 16,736 yuan/ton on Friday, with a total unilateral trading position of 113,800 lots. As of 15:00 on Friday afternoon, LME Lead 3S fell 10.5 to 1,966.5 dollars/ton compared with the same period of the previous day, with a total position of 146,300 lots. The average price of SMM 1 lead ingots was 16,550 yuan/ton, the average price of secondary refined lead was 16,600 yuan/ton, the refined - scrap spread was - 50 yuan/ton, and the average price of waste electric vehicle batteries was 10,200 yuan/ton [11]. - **Domestic Structure**: According to Steel Union data, the domestic social inventory of lead ingots increased to 69,800 tons. The futures inventory of lead ingots on the Shanghai Futures Exchange was 59,900 tons, the domestic primary basis was - 50 yuan/ton, and the spread between the continuous contract and the first - month contract was - 55 yuan/ton. **Overseas Structure**: The LME lead ingot inventory was 276,500 tons, and the LME lead ingot cancelled warrants were 72,400 tons. The basis of the overseas cash - 3S contract was - 40.86 dollars/ton, and the 3 - 15 spread was - 63.5 dollars/ton. **Cross - Market Structure**: After excluding exchange rates, the on - screen Shanghai - London ratio was 1.181, and the import profit and loss of lead ingots was - 528.2 yuan/ton [11]. - **Industrial Data**: At the primary end, the port inventory of lead concentrate was 30,000 tons, and the factory inventory was 404,000 tons, equivalent to 25.8 days. The import TC of lead concentrate was - 60 dollars/dry ton, and the domestic TC was 500 yuan/metal ton. The primary smelting start - up rate was 63.90%, and the factory inventory of primary ingots was 6,000 tons. At the secondary end, the inventory of lead waste was 84,000 tons, the weekly output of secondary lead ingots was 36,000 tons, and the factory inventory of secondary ingots was 13,000 tons. At the demand end, the start - up rate of lead - acid batteries was 71.86% [11]. 2. Primary Supply - **Imports and Production**: In June 2025, the net import of lead concentrate was 118,000 physical tons, a year - on - year change of 31.7% and a month - on - month change of 13.6%. From January to June, the cumulative net import of lead concentrate was 669,400 physical tons, a cumulative year - on - year change of 37.6%. In June 2025, the net import of silver concentrate was 126,000 physical tons, a year - on - year change of - 1.2% and a month - on - month change of - 7.5%. From January to June, the cumulative net import of silver concentrate was 847,500 physical tons, a cumulative year - on - year change of 2.6%. In June 2025, China's lead concentrate output was 153,100 metal tons, a year - on - year change of 14.9% and a month - on - month change of 2.5%. From January to June, the total production of lead concentrate was 787,000 metal tons, a cumulative year - on - year change of 13.1%. In June 2025, the net import of lead - containing ore was 121,200 metal tons, a year - on - year change of 15.7% and a month - on - month change of 3.8%. From January to June, the cumulative net import of lead - containing ore was 740,700 metal tons, a cumulative year - on - year change of 19.0% [15][17]. - **Total Supply**: In June 2025, the total supply of lead concentrate in China was 274,300 metal tons, a year - on - year change of 15.3% and a month - on - month change of 3.1%. From January to June, the cumulative supply of lead concentrate was 1,527,700 metal tons, a cumulative year - on - year change of 15.9%. In May 2025, the global lead ore output was 382,800 tons, a year - on - year change of - 0.1% and a month - on - month change of 1.5%. From January to May, the total production of lead ore was 1,863,800 tons, a cumulative year - on - year change of 5.5% [19]. - **Inventory and Processing Fees**: At the primary end, the port inventory of lead concentrate was 30,000 tons, and the factory inventory was 404,000 tons, equivalent to 25.8 days. The import TC of lead concentrate was - 60 dollars/dry ton, and the domestic TC was 500 yuan/metal ton [21][23]. - **Smelting Start - up Rate and Output**: The primary smelting start - up rate was 63.9%. The factory inventory of primary ingots was 6,000 tons. In July 2025, China's primary lead output was 321,700 tons, a year - on - year change of 4.79% and a month - on - month change of - 2.1%. From January to July, the total production of primary lead ingots was 2,206,400 tons, a cumulative year - on - year change of 8.51% [26]. 3. Secondary Supply - **Inventory and Production**: At the secondary end, the inventory of lead waste was 84,000 tons. The weekly output of secondary lead ingots was 36,000 tons, and the factory inventory of secondary ingots was 13,000 tons. In July 2025, China's secondary lead output was 317,900 tons, a year - on - year change of 3.11% and a month - on - month change of 10.92%. From January to July, the total production of secondary lead ingots was 2,251,600 tons, a cumulative year - on - year change of 0.37% [31][33]. - **Net Exports and Total Supply**: In June 2025, the net export of lead ingots was - 7,200 tons, a year - on - year change of 43.5% and a month - on - month change of - 22.1%. From January to June, the cumulative net export of lead ingots was - 43,900 tons, a cumulative year - on - year change of 448.2%. In June 2025, the total domestic supply of lead ingots was 622,400 tons, a year - on - year change of 0.5% and a month - on - month change of 0.3%. From January to June, the cumulative domestic supply of lead ingots was 3,862,300 tons, a cumulative year - on - year change of 5.3% [35]. 4. Demand Analysis - **Battery Start - up Rate and Apparent Demand**: At the demand end, the start - up rate of lead - acid batteries was 71.86%. In June 2025, the domestic apparent demand for lead ingots was 624,900 tons, a year - on - year change of 0.0% and a month - on - month change of 4.5%. From January to June, the cumulative domestic apparent demand for lead ingots was 3,826,600 tons, a cumulative year - on - year change of 3.5% [38]. - **Battery Exports**: In June 2025, the net export volume of batteries was 1,825,850 units, and the net export weight was 99,200 tons. It was estimated that the net export of lead in batteries was 62,000 tons, a year - on - year change of - 16.9% and a month - on - month change of - 5.0%. From January to June, the total net export of lead in batteries was 366,300 tons, and the cumulative net export of lead in batteries changed by - 3.1% year - on - year [41]. - **Downstream Inventory**: In June 2025, the days of enterprise finished - product inventory slightly decreased to 26 days, and the days of dealer inventory slightly increased to 39.88 days [44]. - **Terminal Demand**: In the two - wheeled vehicle sector, although the decline in electric bicycle production directly dragged down the new installation demand, the continuous growth of delivery scenarios such as express delivery and takeaway drove the improvement of the new installation consumption of electric two - and three - wheeled vehicles. In the automobile sector, the contribution of lead demand is expected to maintain stable growth. Although new energy vehicles use lithium iron phosphate starter batteries, the high stock of existing vehicles still provides support for lead ingot consumption. In the base station sector, the increasing number of communication base stations and 5G base stations drives the steady increase in the demand for lead - acid batteries [48][50][53]. 5. Supply - Demand Inventory - **Domestic Supply - Demand Difference**: In June 2025, the domestic supply - demand difference of lead ingots was a shortage of 35,700 tons. From January to June, the cumulative domestic supply - demand difference of lead ingots was an excess of 0 tons [61]. - **Overseas Supply - Demand Difference**: In May 2025, the overseas supply - demand difference of refined lead was a shortage of - 21,400 tons. From January to May, the cumulative overseas supply - demand difference of refined lead was a shortage of - 35,700 tons [64]. 6. Price Outlook - **Domestic Structure**: According to Steel Union data, the domestic social inventory of lead ingots increased to 69,800 tons. The futures inventory of lead ingots on the Shanghai Futures Exchange was 59,900 tons, the domestic primary basis was - 50 yuan/ton, and the spread between the continuous contract and the first - month contract was - 55 yuan/ton [69]. - **Overseas Structure**: The LME lead ingot inventory was 276,500 tons, and the LME lead ingot cancelled warrants were 72,400 tons. The basis of the overseas cash - 3S contract was - 40.86 dollars/ton, and the 3 - 15 spread was - 63.5 dollars/ton [72]. - **Cross - Market Structure**: After excluding exchange rates, the on - screen Shanghai - London ratio was 1.181, and the import profit and loss of lead ingots was - 528.2 yuan/ton [75]. - **Position Analysis**: The net position of the top 20 in Shanghai lead turned to net short, the net long position of investment funds in London lead increased, and the net short position of commercial enterprises decreased. The position perspective indicates a bearish trend [78].

Group 1: Industry Investment Rating - No relevant content provided Group 2: Core Viewpoints - Overseas lead inventories are increasing, putting pressure on lead prices [1] Group 3: Summary by Related Catalogs 1. Fundamental Tracking - **Price**: The closing price of the main Shanghai lead futures contract was 16,900 yuan/ton, down 0.09%; the closing price of the LME 3M electronic lead futures was 2,017.5 dollars/ton, down 0.15% [1] - **Volume**: The trading volume of the main Shanghai lead futures contract was 47,978 lots, a decrease of 24,548 lots; the LME lead trading volume was 5,267 lots, a decrease of 88 lots [1] - **Open Interest**: The open interest of the main Shanghai lead futures contract was 64,534 lots, a decrease of 6,012 lots; the LME lead open interest was 142,951 lots, an increase of 1,869 lots [1] - **Premium and Discount**: The premium of Shanghai 1 lead was -25 yuan/ton, an increase of 25 yuan/ton; the LME CASH - 3M premium was -27.31 dollars/ton, a decrease of 3.89 dollars/ton [1] - **Import and Export**: The spot import profit and loss of lead ingots was -812.59 yuan/ton, an increase of 18.02 yuan/ton; the import profit and loss of Shanghai lead continuous third contract was -695.48 yuan/ton, a decrease of 5.72 yuan/ton [1] - **Inventory**: The Shanghai lead futures inventory was 60,932 tons, unchanged; the LME lead inventory was 270,350 tons, an increase of 6,700 tons [1] - **Recycled Lead**: The price of recycled electric vehicle batteries was 10,250 yuan/ton, unchanged; the comprehensive profit and loss of recycled lead was -502 yuan/ton, unchanged [1] 2. News - China and the US will continue to extend the 24% part of the suspended reciprocal tariffs and China's counter - measures for 90 days India is delaying new trade concessions and aiming to finalize an agreement by September or October [2] - In June, the number of job openings in the US was 7.437 million, falling short of expectations, and recruitment slowed The US merchandise trade deficit narrowed more than expected, and Wall Street raised its Q2 GDP forecast The US important housing price index fell for three consecutive months, the largest decline since 2022 [2] - The lead trend strength is 0, indicating a neutral view [2]

Report Information - Report Title: Non-ferrous Metals Weekly (Lead) - Macro sentiment is favorable, and lead prices may consolidate strongly [1] - Report Date: July 22, 2025 [2] - Research Institute: Hongyuan Futures Research Institute [2] - Analyst: Qi Yurong (F03100031, Z0021060) [2] Investment Rating - No investment rating information is provided in the report. Core Viewpoints - The supply side shows an incremental trend as primary lead smelters resume production after maintenance and secondary lead smelters'开工 increases due to improved raw material arrivals. Meanwhile, the consumption side is gradually entering the traditional peak season, and demand is expected to improve. Considering the strong support from the raw material side and positive macro sentiment, lead prices may be strong in the short term, with an operating range of 16,500 - 17,500 yuan/ton [3] Summary by Directory 1. Market Review - SMM1 lead ingot average price decreased by 1.33% to 16,700 yuan/ton; Shanghai lead main contract closing price decreased by 1.49% to 16,820 yuan/ton; LME lead closing price (electronic disk) decreased by 0.27% to 2,011.5 US dollars/ton [13] 2. Primary Lead - Domestic lead concentrate processing fee decreased by 50 yuan/metal ton to 500 yuan/metal ton, and imported lead concentrate processing fee remained flat at -55 US dollars/dry ton. The tight ore situation remains unchanged, and TC quotes are weakly stable. Smelter profits fluctuated slightly, and as of July 11, smelter profits (excluding by-product revenues such as zinc and copper) were 93.5 yuan/ton [31] - Primary lead 开工 rate decreased to 65.82% month-on-month. Due to the price inversion of secondary lead and delivery and position transfer, primary lead factory inventories declined [32][36] - The total weekly production of deliverable primary lead smelting enterprises was 47,015 tons, with some fluctuations due to regular maintenance and recovery [38] 3. Secondary Lead - As of July 18, the average price of scrap batteries was 10,250 yuan/ton, a month-on-month decrease of 50 yuan/ton. The price of scrap batteries decreased due to recyclers' fear of falling prices, but the tight supply pattern did not improve substantially [45] - As of July 21, the comprehensive profit and loss of large-scale secondary lead enterprises was -455 yuan/ton, and that of small and medium-sized secondary lead enterprises was -680 yuan/ton [51] - As of July 17, secondary lead raw material inventory was 146,350 tons, and finished product inventory was 20,860 tons. The finished product inventory decreased due to improved downstream purchasing sentiment and long-term order delivery [55] - Secondary lead enterprises' 开工 rate increased by 2.4 percentage points to 37.9%. As of last Friday, the weekly output of secondary lead was 39,600 tons, showing an increase. The 开工 rate increased due to improved raw material inventory of secondary lead smelters as scrap battery holders sold due to fear of falling lead prices [58] 4. Lead Batteries - The 开工 rate of lead batteries increased by 0.2 percentage points to 70.96%. As the traditional peak season approaches, some enterprises reported improved orders, but high temperatures in the north affected 开工 rates. Additionally, some lead battery enterprises may face tariffs of 25 - 70% due to anti-dumping investigations, leading to pre-tariff export rush [64] 5. Import and Export - As of July 11, the export loss of refined lead was about 2,600 yuan/ton. As of July 18, the import profit was -485.5 yuan/ton, and the import profit window was closed [74] 6. Inventory - As of July 17, the total social inventory of lead ingots in five locations was 69,000 tons, showing an increase. The social inventory accumulated due to the large price difference between futures and spot and position transfer and delivery by holders [83] - As of July 18, SHFE refined lead inventory was 62,300 tons, showing a month-on-month increase, and LME inventory was 268,400 tons, also showing an increase [86] - The monthly supply and demand balance sheet shows the production, export, import, consumption, and inventory data of primary and secondary lead from January 2024 to June 2025 [87]

Group 1 - The average price of lead ingots is 16,800 CNY/ton, while recycled refined lead averages 16,775 CNY/ton, indicating a price difference of 25 CNY/ton [1] - As of July 22, the main market lead ingot social inventory in China is 65,800 tons, a decrease of 1,000 tons from July 17 [1] - The Shanghai market inventory stands at 7,900 tons, Guangdong at 3,900 tons, Jiangsu at 15,000 tons, Tianjin at 20,000 tons, and Zhejiang at 19,000 tons [1] Group 2 - On July 22, the London Metal Exchange (LME) reported lead registered warrants at 186,525 tons and canceled warrants at 75,975 tons, with total lead inventory at 262,500 tons, a decrease of 2,425 tons [2] - New Hu Futures' analysis indicates that while domestic waste battery prices remain stable, there has been a slight recovery in recycled lead production, and primary lead production remains high despite some maintenance [3] - The demand for electric bicycle batteries is stagnant, and while there is slight improvement in the automotive battery market, overall demand remains below expectations, leading to increased concerns about demand [3]