1. Report Industry Investment Rating There is no information provided in the report regarding the industry investment rating. 2. Core Viewpoints of the Report - Domestic smelter production increase and decrease coexist, and the supply shortage has improved. After the consumer end resumes production, it is expected to maintain just - in - time procurement. The terminal peak season is not prosperous. It is expected that the lead price may fluctuate weakly in the short term. Pay attention to the support level of 17,000 - 17,100 yuan/ton. In the future, continuous attention should be paid to the impact of raw material arrivals on smelter operations [3]. 3. Summaries According to Relevant Catalogs 3.1 Market Review - The opening of primary lead smelters increased and decreased, with small fluctuations in production. The opening of secondary lead smelters continued to rise due to improved profits and raw material supply. The opening of battery enterprises declined due to limited cost transfer. The import profit window was gradually closing, and downstream procurement was poor, leading to an increase in inventory [4][21][34][53][61][69]. - SMM 1 lead ingot average price decreased by 0.43% to 17,225 yuan/ton, Shanghai lead main contract closing price decreased by 1.17% to 17,390 yuan/ton, and LME lead closing price (electronic disk) increased by 0.42% to 2,025 US dollars/ton [10]. 3.2 Mineral Supply and TC - The tight mineral supply pattern has not been alleviated, and TC is stable with a weakening trend. Domestic lead concentrate processing fee remained flat at 350 yuan/metal ton, and imported lead concentrate processing fee remained flat at - 125 US dollars/dry ton. Smelter profits declined, and as of October 24, smelter profits (excluding by - product revenues such as zinc and copper) were 106 yuan/ton [22][27]. 3.3 Primary Lead - The primary lead operating rate decreased to 67.17% on a month - on - month basis. The total weekly production of major deliverable primary lead smelting enterprises was expected to be 50,050 tons, with some enterprises having maintenance plans and others resuming normal production [28][33]. 3.4 Secondary Lead - The price of waste batteries was firm. As of October 31, the average price of waste batteries was 10,025 yuan/ton, a month - on - month increase of 25 yuan/ton. The profit of secondary lead smelters declined slightly. As of November 3, the comprehensive profit of large - scale secondary lead enterprises was 160 yuan/ton, and that of small - and medium - scale enterprises was - 56 yuan/ton [37][46]. - The raw material inventory of secondary lead decreased, and the finished product inventory increased. As of October 30, the raw material inventory was 134,450 tons, and the finished product inventory was 3,940 tons. It is expected that the finished product inventory will further accumulate [47][49]. - The secondary lead operating rate increased by 1.2 percentage points to 43.4%. As of last Friday, the weekly production of secondary lead was 51,300 tons, with a slight decline. It is expected that the operating rate will continue to rise [50][52]. 3.5 Lead Batteries - The lead battery operating rate decreased by 6.46 percentage points to 68.9%. Due to limited terminal demand and high lead prices, some enterprises reduced production to avoid over - inventory. It is expected that the operating rate will recover this week [58][60]. 3.6 Import and Export - As of October 24, the refined lead export loss was about 3,200 yuan/ton. As of October 31, the import profit was 24.99 yuan/ton, and the import profit window was gradually closing [63][68]. 3.7 Inventory - As of October 30, the total social inventory of lead ingots in five locations was 29,800 tons, a decrease; the inventory of major deliverable primary lead brands in factories was 8,600 tons, a month - on - month increase. High lead prices suppressed downstream procurement, leading to inventory accumulation [72][78]. - As of October 31, SHFE refined lead inventory was 36,000 tons, a month - on - month decrease; as of October 30, LME inventory was 220,300 tons, a decrease [79][81]. - The monthly supply - demand balance table shows the production, import, export, consumption, and inventory data of primary and secondary lead from January 2024 to August 2025 [82].

Report Industry Investment Rating - Not provided in the content Core Viewpoints of the Report - This week, the Shanghai lead futures showed a volatile trend, with the main contract 2512 of Shanghai lead futures being active and falling 1.34%. Due to the expected increase in secondary lead production and unchanged demand, the Shanghai lead price oscillated downward [4]. - In terms of supply, primary lead production is expected to increase slightly, while secondary lead supply may grow next week but with limited growth due to environmental - related transportation controls and tight waste battery supplies. On the demand side, the weekly operating rate of lead - acid battery enterprises has rebounded, and the traditional consumption peak season provides some support for lead demand. However, the expansion of the Shanghai - London ratio of lead ingots and tariff - affected exports of lead - acid batteries will suppress demand growth. Inventory is decreasing, but with the expected increase in imported lead arrivals and potential growth in secondary lead production, inventory may change next week, and a slowdown in inventory depletion will resist price increases. Overall, Shanghai lead is expected to oscillate next week with limited upside, and it is recommended to short on rallies [4]. - For operation, it is suggested that the main contract 2512 of Shanghai lead oscillates in the range of 17,200 - 17,500, with a stop - loss range of 17,100 - 17,600. Attention should be paid to operation rhythm and risk control [4]. Summary According to the Directory 1. Week - on - Week Summary - **Market Review**: The Shanghai lead futures showed a volatile trend this week, and the main contract 2512 fell 1.34%. Due to the expected increase in secondary lead production and unchanged demand, the price oscillated downward [4]. - **Market Outlook**: Supply may grow slightly with limitations. Demand has some support but is also suppressed. Inventory may change, and price upside is limited. It is recommended to short on rallies [4]. - **Operation Suggestion**: The main contract 2512 of Shanghai lead oscillates in the range of 17,200 - 17,500, with a stop - loss range of 17,100 - 17,600 [4]. 2. Futures and Spot Market - **Price and Ratio**: Domestic futures prices of Shanghai lead decreased compared with last week, while foreign futures prices increased, and the ratio decreased. As of October 30, 2025, the LME 3 - month lead futures closing price was $2,022 per ton, the lead futures closing price (active contract) was 17,350 yuan per ton, and the Shanghai - London ratio of lead was 8.584 [6][10]. - **Premium and Discount**: Domestic futures premium and discount strengthened, and foreign premium and discount also strengthened. As of October 30, 2025, the Chinese futures premium and discount was - 160 yuan per ton, and the LME lead premium and discount (0 - 3) was - $33.99 per ton [12][14]. - **Inventory and Warehouse Receipts**: Foreign lead inventory decreased, domestic inventory increased, warehouse receipt quantity decreased, and overall lead inventory decreased. As of October 23, 2025, the total lead inventory was 27,900 tons (up 1,800 tons), the total LME lead inventory was 224,175 tons (down 11,200 tons), and the warehouse receipt quantity of Shanghai lead was 21,645 tons (down 2,089 tons) [31][35]. 3. Industry Situation - **Supply - Side**: - **Primary Lead**: As of October 23, 2025, the average operating rate of primary lead in major production areas was 82.65% (up 1.01% from last week), and the weekly output was 39,600 tons (up 500 tons from last week) [18][20]. - **Secondary Lead**: As of October 23, 2025, the average capacity utilization rate of secondary lead was 51.88% (up 3.8% month - on - month), and the output in major domestic production areas was 22,500 tons (up 2,900 tons month - on - month) [25][29]. - **Imports and Exports**: In September 2025, refined lead exports decreased by 43.62% month - on - month and increased by 408.31% year - on - year. Refined lead imports decreased by 17.17% month - on - month and 94.69% year - on - year. Lead alloy imports were 12,784 tons. Lead concentrate imports increased by 11.72% month - on - month and decreased by 7.21% year - on - year. Lead ingot imports were 12,000 tons (up 1,200 tons month - on - month, an increase of 11.11%, and down 22,600 tons year - on - year, a decrease of 65.33%) [37][39]. - **Demand - Side**: - **Processing Fees**: As of October 23, 2025, the national average processing fee of lead concentrate was 380 yuan per ton, and the average processing fee of imported lead concentrate (Pb60) was - $90 per thousand tons [41][43]. - **Automobile Market**: In September 2025, overall automobile sales were 3.226 million (up 12.9% month - on - month and 14.9% year - on - year). New energy vehicle sales were 1.604 million (up 24.6% year - on - year). The growth of new energy vehicles may lead to a decline in lead demand [45][48]. - **Recycling and Product Prices**: As of October 30, 2025, the average price of waste lead batteries (48V/20AH) in Zhejiang was 394 yuan per group, and the price of lead - antimony alloy (for batteries, containing 2 - 4% antimony) in Shanghai was 19,410 yuan per ton [50][53].

Report Industry Investment Rating No relevant content provided. Core Viewpoints - From September 1st to October 10th, the Shanghai Lead Index fluctuated upwards, with the total position decreasing. The LME Lead also rose. The domestic lead ingot factory and social inventories declined continuously. Considering the strong performance of precious metals and non - ferrous metals recently, the sector sentiment is positive. It is expected that the Shanghai Lead will oscillate widely at a low level in the short term [11]. Summary by Directory 1. Monthly Assessment - **Price Review**: From September 1st to October 10th, the Shanghai Lead Index rose 1.57% to 17,140 yuan/ton, with a 0.46 - thousand - hand decrease in total positions. The LME Lead rose 1.63% to 2,026.5 dollars/ton. As of the report end, the SMM1 lead ingot average price was 16,800 yuan/ton, the recycled refined lead average price was 16,775 yuan/ton, and the refined - scrap spread was 25 yuan/ton. The SHFE lead ingot futures inventory was 30.1 thousand tons, the domestic primary basis was - 120 yuan/ton, and the continuous - first - continuous contract spread was - 15 yuan/ton. The LME lead ingot inventory was 236.1 thousand tons, and the LME lead ingot cancelled warrants were 49.6 thousand tons. The foreign cash - 3S contract basis was - 37.3 dollars/ton, and the 3 - 15 spread was - 74.2 dollars/ton. After excluding exchange rates, the Shanghai - London ratio was 1.193, and the lead ingot import profit and loss was - 358.36 yuan/ton. The domestic social inventory decreased to 35.8 thousand tons [11]. - **Industry Data**: At the primary end, the lead concentrate port inventory was 17 thousand tons, the factory inventory was 432 thousand tons (equivalent to 26.0 days). The lead concentrate import TC was - 110 dollars/dry ton, and the domestic TC was 350 yuan/metal ton. The primary smelting start - up rate was 66.49%, and the primary ingot factory inventory was 3 thousand tons. At the recycled end, the lead scrap inventory was 94 thousand tons, the weekly output of recycled lead ingots was 31 thousand tons, and the recycled ingot factory inventory was 10 thousand tons. The lead battery start - up rate was 71.62% [11]. - **Overall Outlook**: At the primary end, the visible lead ore inventory declined again, with a slower inventory accumulation rate than in previous years, and the lead concentrate processing fees continued to decline. Although raw material shortages restricted primary smelting start - up, the start - up rate was still higher than in previous years. At the recycled end, the scrap inventory increased slightly, and the decline in raw material prices promoted the repair of recycled smelting profits, with a slight recovery in recycled start - up. The downstream battery enterprises' start - up was higher than in previous years. After the battery inventory pressure decreased, downstream purchases increased slightly. The domestic lead ingot factory and social inventories decreased continuously, and combined with the recent strong performance of precious metals and non - ferrous metals, the sector sentiment was good [11]. 2. Primary Supply - **Imports and Production**: In August 2025, the net import of lead concentrates was 134.8 thousand physical tons, a 15.9% year - on - year change and a 10.4% month - on - month change. From January to August, the cumulative net import of lead concentrates was 919.7 thousand physical tons, a 31.5% cumulative year - on - year change. The net import of silver concentrates in August was 185 thousand physical tons, a 15.8% year - on - year change and a 20.0% month - on - month change. From January to August, the cumulative net import of silver concentrates was 1,191.1 thousand physical tons, a 6.3% cumulative year - on - year change. In August, China's lead concentrate production was 156.1 thousand metal tons, a 13.9% year - on - year change and a 1.0% month - on - month change. From January to August, the total lead concentrate production was 1,097.7 thousand metal tons, an 11.8% cumulative year - on - year change. The net import of lead - containing ores in August was 154.9 thousand metal tons, a 15.8% year - on - year change and a 14.8% month - on - month change. From January to August, the cumulative net import of lead - containing ores was 1,028.2 thousand metal tons, an 18.5% cumulative year - on - year change [15][17]. - **Total Supply**: In August 2025, China's total lead concentrate supply was 311 thousand metal tons, a 14.9% year - on - year change and a 7.4% month - on - month change. From January to August, the cumulative lead concentrate supply was 2,125.9 thousand metal tons, a 14.9% cumulative year - on - year change. In June 2025, the global lead ore production was 395.9 thousand tons, a 1.4% year - on - year change and a 4.1% month - on - month change. From January to June, the total global lead ore production was 2,256.5 thousand tons, a 4.6% cumulative year - on - year change [19]. - **Inventory and Processing Fees**: The lead concentrate port inventory was 17 thousand tons, and the factory inventory was 432 thousand tons (equivalent to 26.0 days). The lead concentrate import TC was - 110 dollars/dry ton, and the domestic TC was 350 yuan/metal ton [21][23]. - **Smelting Start - up and Output**: The primary smelting start - up rate was 66.49%, and the primary ingot factory inventory was 3 thousand tons. In September 2025, China's primary lead production was 327.8 thousand tons, a 12.4% year - on - year change and a 1.0% month - on - month change. From January to September, the total primary lead ingot production was 2,860.9 thousand tons, an 8.3% cumulative year - on - year change [26]. 3. Recycled Supply - **Raw Materials and Output**: At the recycled end, the lead scrap inventory was 86.4 thousand tons. The weekly output of recycled lead ingots was 31.9 thousand tons, and the recycled ingot factory inventory was 9.8 thousand tons. In September 2025, China's recycled lead production was 317 thousand tons, a 5.5% year - on - year change and a - 1.0% month - on - month change. From January to September, the total recycled lead ingot production was 2,888.8 thousand tons, a 1.7% cumulative year - on - year change [31][33]. - **Imports and Total Supply**: In August 2025, the net export of lead ingots was - 11.3 thousand tons, an - 86.1% year - on - year change and a - 10.5% month - on - month change. From January to August, the cumulative net export of lead ingots was - 67.8 thousand tons, a - 43.2% cumulative year - on - year change. In August, the domestic total lead ingot supply was 656.2 thousand tons, a - 5.4% year - on - year change and a 0.3% month - on - month change. From January to August, the domestic cumulative lead ingot supply was 5,172.7 thousand tons, a 3.3% cumulative year - on - year change [35]. 4. Demand Analysis - **Battery Start - up and Demand**: The lead battery start - up rate was 71.62%. In August 2025, the apparent domestic lead ingot demand was 639.3 thousand tons, a - 5.3% year - on - year change and a - 1.9% month - on - month change. From January to August, the domestic cumulative apparent lead ingot demand was 5,117.7 thousand tons, a 1.6% cumulative year - on - year change [40]. - **Battery Exports**: In August 2025, the net export quantity of batteries was 1.78165 million, and the net export weight was 97.9 thousand tons. The estimated net export of lead in batteries was 61.2 thousand tons, an - 11.3% year - on - year change and an - 8.2% month - on - month change. From January to August, the total net export of lead in batteries was 494.1 thousand tons, a - 4.4% cumulative year - on - year change [43]. - **Inventory Changes**: In August 2025, the lead battery finished product factory inventory decreased from 21.8 days to 20.5 days, and the dealer lead battery inventory days decreased from 44.6 days to 42 days [45]. - **Terminal Demand**: In the two - wheeled vehicle sector, although the decline in electric bicycle production directly affected new installation demand, the continuous growth of delivery scenarios such as express delivery and takeaway improved the new installation consumption of electric two - and three - wheeled vehicles. In the automotive sector, the contribution of lead demand was expected to maintain stable growth. Although new energy vehicles were replacing lead - acid starting batteries, the high stock of existing vehicles led to high replacement demand, and the starting battery start - up rate remained relatively high. In the base station sector, the increasing number of communication base stations and 5G base stations drove the steady increase in lead - acid battery demand [49][51][54]. 5. Supply - Demand Inventory - **Domestic Balance**: In August 2025, the domestic lead ingot supply - demand difference was a surplus of 16.9 thousand tons. From January to August, the domestic cumulative lead ingot supply - demand difference was a surplus of 55 thousand tons [63]. - **Overseas Balance**: In July 2025, the overseas refined lead supply - demand difference was a shortage of - 8 thousand tons. From January to July, the overseas cumulative refined lead supply - demand difference was a shortage of - 53.9 thousand tons [66]. 6. Price Outlook - **Domestic Structure**: The domestic social inventory decreased to 35.8 thousand tons. The SHFE lead ingot futures inventory was 30.1 thousand tons, the domestic primary basis was - 120 yuan/ton, and the continuous - first - continuous contract spread was - 15 yuan/ton [71]. - **Overseas Structure**: The LME lead ingot inventory was 236.1 thousand tons, and the LME lead ingot cancelled warrants were 49.6 thousand tons. The foreign cash - 3S contract basis was - 37.3 dollars/ton, and the 3 - 15 spread was - 74.2 dollars/ton [74]. - **Price Ratios and Profits**: After excluding exchange rates, the Shanghai - London ratio was 1.193, and the lead ingot import profit and loss was - 358.36 yuan/ton [77]. - **Position Analysis**: The top 20 net positions of Shanghai Lead turned slightly net short, the net long positions of LME Lead investment funds increased, and the net short positions of commercial enterprises increased. From a position perspective, the short - term guidance was bearish [80].

Core Insights - The average price of SMM1 lead ingots was 16,925 CNY/ton, while recycled refined lead averaged 16,850 CNY/ton, indicating a price differential of 75 CNY/ton for scrap lead-acid batteries priced at 9,975 CNY/ton [1] - On September 29, the lead futures market closed at 16,855 CNY/ton, with a decline of 1.38%, and trading volume reached 76,219 lots [2] - The LME reported a registered lead warehouse stock of 197,275 tons, with a decrease of 600 tons in canceled warrants, totaling 21,550 tons [2] Supply and Demand Analysis - The supply side is expected to maintain a tight balance in Q4, with some smelters in Hunan and Yunnan experiencing slight production declines due to insufficient raw material inventories [4] - The operating rate of recycled lead has been declining for six consecutive weeks, leading to weakened demand for scrap lead-acid batteries, which have seen a slight price stabilization after a drop [4] - The implementation of new national standards for electric bicycles in September has improved order conditions for some downstream companies, alongside stable demand in the energy storage battery market, suggesting a potential reduction in lead inventory [4] Transportation and Cost Factors - In Inner Mongolia, transportation vehicles are becoming tight due to the maturity of agricultural products, resulting in an increase in transportation costs by approximately 80 CNY/ton [3]

Report Industry Investment Rating - The rating for Shanghai Lead is "Volatility", with a price range of [16,500, 17,800], featuring narrow - range fluctuations and occasional small - to medium - scale market movements [3]. Core Viewpoints of the Report - In Q4 2025, the shortage of lead concentrates and waste batteries will intensify. Domestic demand is expected to improve periodically under the background of policy - boosted consumption, while export demand may continue to be under pressure. The oscillation center of Shanghai Lead may move up, and there may be small - to medium - scale upward trends as consumption improves. The volatility may increase compared to Q3, and it is safer to take long positions at low prices. Attention should be paid to the production strategies of large enterprises [3]. Summary by Relevant Catalogs 1. Q3 2025 Lead Price Review - In July, lead prices rose first and then fell. Shanghai Lead increased significantly due to anti - cut - throat competition sentiment and pre - trading of improved demand, but domestic demand was later disproven, and anti - cut - throat competition had limited impact on basic non - ferrous commodities. LME Lead was pressured by a stronger US dollar, and both domestic and overseas lead prices dropped back to pre - increase levels [6]. - In August, the 0 - 3 cash of the outer market remained deeply in contango. The domestic lead market had weak supply and demand. Falling lead prices and tight raw materials intensified the pressure on the operating rate of secondary smelters, and demand was even weaker. With low capital attention, both domestic and overseas lead prices fluctuated at low levels [6]. - In September, the bottom - building of lead prices ended. As the traditional peak season approached, the raw material and finished - product inventories of downstream battery factories continued to decline, and lead prices rose slightly in advance. With the approaching of the double - festival holiday, downstream enterprises stocked up in advance, and market transactions improved as lead prices rose. The fundamental support pushed the operating center of lead prices up from 16,800 yuan/ton to 17,000 yuan/ton [6]. 2. Lead Concentrate Supply Overseas - In Q3 2025, overseas lead concentrate production was lower than expected. Although project profits were sufficient, factors such as lower - than - expected output from sample mining enterprises, irreversible decline in mine grades, long - term impact of geological factors, time required for equipment renewal, and increased probability of La Nina led to the annual overseas lead concentrate increment dropping from 700,000 to 0 tons. There is no obvious expectation of improvement in Q4 [7][11]. Domestic - From January to August, the cumulative domestic lead concentrate output was 1.098 million tons, a year - on - year increase of 11.7%, mainly due to the output release of new projects such as Yinzhushan and Kangjiawan. The main reasons for the decline in TC were the high operating rate of primary smelters, the reflection of the supply - demand relationship of high - grade concentrates in TC, and the weak bargaining power in spot transactions due to fewer long - term contracts signed by smelters. In Q4, Huoshaoyun may release marginal increments, and the domestic mine increment in 2025 is expected to reach +1.2 million tons. The import of Red Dog lead concentrate will share tariff costs equally between domestic and foreign parties, and the import of lead concentrates may decline seasonally in Q4. With primary smelters maintaining a relatively high operating rate, TC may continue to be under pressure [20]. 3. Primary Lead Production Overseas - From January to August, the cumulative overseas primary lead output was 864,000 tons (YoY - 1.4%). Due to tight raw materials, the reduction in overseas primary lead production increased. There was a significant reduction in Kazzinc 3rd Party under Glencore, and the incremental production from restarted and ramping - up projects was not obvious [24]. Domestic - From January to August, the cumulative domestic primary lead output was 2.542 million tons (YoY + 8.2%), mainly due to the restoration of raw material supply, the widening of the price difference between refined and secondary lead, and the increase in production profits (including by - products such as small metals). The operating rate of primary lead in Q3 was generally at a high level. Overall, the domestic surplus (+193,000 tons) can still cover the overseas reduction (-13,000 tons). However, smelting profits are approaching the break - even point and declining, and with the downward pressure on TC in the future, smelting profits may be under pressure. The production of primary lead in Q4 may decline quarter - on - quarter [24]. 4. Secondary Lead Production - From January to August, the cumulative secondary refined lead output was 2.08 million tons (YoY - 3%), and the operating rate of secondary lead remained at a low level of 30%, which may drop below 25% in September. The production cuts of secondary lead smelters mostly follow the raw material consumption rhythm rather than profit changes. The scrap battery scrap volume in Q3 did not improve significantly. Although recyclers sold off stocks multiple times during the lead price decline, it had limited effect on replenishing smelters' raw material inventories. As lead prices rebounded, the profits of secondary lead smelters in October were restored, and the operating rate may increase [44]. - The operating rate of secondary lead smelters in Q4 may increase quarter - on - quarter but will still be highly volatile. The replacement demand may be stimulated by trade - in subsidies, new national standards, and consumer festivals after October, but the annual output is expected to be lower than expected, and the year - on - year growth rate is revised down to - 2%. After years of continuous losses, the cash flow of many secondary lead plants has been under pressure for two and a half years, and attention should be paid to the possible exit of secondary lead production capacity [44]. 5. Initial Demand - In Q3, lead demand was generally weak. In the battery field, the demand for new automotive batteries was neutral to weak, and the replacement demand was significantly lower than expected. The traditional peak seasons for electric two - wheelers and tricycles did not materialize. The export demand for batteries was also weakened by tariffs and anti - dumping measures, while the demand in the energy storage field continued to perform well [46]. - The participation of large enterprises in the futures market has decreased, and there is a phenomenon of buying on rising prices. The finished - product inventory of large enterprises has been transferred to dealers, and the finished - product inventory has undergone a round of destocking. The production orders of lead - carbon battery manufacturers in the energy storage field are abundant [48]. 6. Terminal Demand Electric Two - Wheelers - From January to August, the cumulative production of electric bicycles in Jiangsu and Tianjin increased by 101.5% and 14.7% year - on - year respectively, and the growth rate expanded compared to the first half of the year. The cumulative production of two - wheeled and three - wheeled motorcycles increased by 10.6% and 4.4% year - on - year respectively, and the growth rate narrowed compared to the first half of the year. The replacement demand in Q3 was weak. In Q4, the replacement demand is expected to strengthen periodically due to factors such as trade - in policies, upcoming Double Eleven promotions, and the implementation of new national standards [54]. Automobiles - From January to August, the domestic automobile production was 21.027 million vehicles (YoY + 12.6%), with new energy vehicles increasing by 37.1% and fuel vehicles decreasing by 2%. The export increased by 13.8% year - on - year, but the export growth rate may slow down in Q4. Considering the impact of lithium substitution for lead, the annual lead consumption growth rate in the automotive field is revised down to - 1.8% [59]. Energy Storage - Lead - carbon batteries are still irreplaceable in the data center energy storage field. As of the end of September, the production schedules of some energy storage manufacturers have reached March next year, and the demand for lead - carbon batteries continues to grow strongly. The lead consumption growth rate in this sector is revised up from 8% to 10% [59]. 7. Export Demand - From 2020 - 2023, the average annual compound growth rate of lead battery exports was 10%. From January to August, the export of starting - type batteries increased by 0.2% year - on - year, while the export of other types decreased by 11.5% year - on - year, and the decline further expanded. The main reasons are price ratio suppression, anti - dumping measures, and weak non - automotive demand (destocking) [64]. - There is no obvious driver for the recovery of overseas lead consumption, and the domestic secondary production cost support is still strong. The internal - external price ratio is difficult to repair significantly. With the influence of trade protectionism and battery manufacturers going global, exports may still be under pressure, and the annual export demand growth rate is revised down from flat to - 1% [64]. 8. Inventory - The LME lead inventory is still at a seasonal high even after destocking, and the 0 - 3 spot has been in deep contango for a long time [69]. - In Q3, the lead elements concentrated in the initial downstream and terminal consumption fields were slowly consumed, and the lead elements in the intermediate links of the industrial chain have decreased. However, the medium - to - long - term trend still depends on future demand. Before the double - festivals, downstream enterprises stocked up normally, and potential delivery risks should be警惕 under low inventory levels [69]. - The import window for lead ingots may open intermittently in Q4. Based on this expectation, it is recommended to pay attention to the range - trading opportunities of the internal - external price ratio [69]. 9. Supply - Demand Balance - The revised balance sheet shows that the annual shortage level has decreased. The supply of primary lead may face a marginal tightening of imported ores in Q4, and TC has downward pressure, with a possibility of limited production cuts by smelters. The replacement demand in the secondary lead sector may improve periodically in Q4, but waste batteries will still be in short supply. The operating rate of secondary lead smelters may improve quarter - on - quarter but will remain highly volatile [71]. - The annual terminal demand growth rate is expected to turn negative, mainly due to the possible over - expected lithium substitution for lead, the pressure on both domestic sales and exports of automobiles, the dependence of electric vehicle replacement demand on policy stimuli, the strong consumption in the energy storage field, and the continued pressure on exports. The demand in Q4 may improve periodically [72].

1. Report Industry Investment Rating - The investment rating for the lead industry is neutral [3] 2. Core View of the Report - The lead market continues to face a situation of weak supply and demand, with the lead price expected to maintain a volatile pattern between 16,400 yuan/ton and 17,050 yuan/ton. Although there is regional tight - supply in primary lead due to maintenance, overall terminal demand has not improved significantly, and the reminder of peak - season demand is not obvious. However, in a generally positive macro - sentiment environment, the lead price may not decline significantly under the influence of the non - ferrous metals sector [1][2][3] 3. Summary by Relevant Catalogs Lead Market Analysis Mine End - In the week of July 25, the lead concentrate market remained in a tight supply - demand balance with obvious regional differentiation. In Hunan, the processing fee for silver - lead ore was negative, and actual market transactions were scarce. In contrast, supply was relatively loose in Henan and Inner Mongolia, and most smelters were less willing to adjust the pb50 processing fee. Regarding the silver pricing coefficient, only the coefficient of low - silver ore (200 - 500g/ton) was raised to 0.8, while that of high - silver ore remained unchanged [1] Primary Lead - In the week of July 25, the operating rate of the primary lead industry dropped to 63.37%, a week - on - week decline of 2.45 percentage points. Supply in Henan was tight due to delayed resumption of maintenance enterprises and production fluctuations in another smelter. Operations in Hunan and Yunnan were basically stable, with only minor output adjustments in individual small and medium - sized plants. Maintenance was the main factor restricting capacity release [1] Recycled Lead - In the week of July 25, the operating rate of the recycled lead industry rebounded to 40.68%, a week - on - week increase of 2.84 percentage points. The resumption of an Anhui smelter drove a 6.6 - percentage - point increase in the regional operating rate, and a large - scale enterprise in Inner Mongolia was about to start production. Production in Henan and Jiangsu remained stable, but the recovery volume of waste batteries still restricted capacity release. With the approaching of the traditional peak consumption season, enterprises' production willingness is gradually increasing, and the operating rate is expected to continue to rise slightly next week. Tight waste material supply is the main constraint [2] Consumption - In the week of July 25, the operating rate of the lead - acid battery industry slightly rose to 71.86%, a week - on - week increase of 0.9 percentage points. The market showed structural differentiation: some electric bicycle battery enterprises had an operating rate of up to 90% due to peak - season stocking demand, while automobile battery enterprises' operating rates fluctuated between 70 - 80% under the dual influence of weak domestic consumption and tariff policies, and some enterprises achieved full production by seizing export orders. Overall terminal demand has not improved significantly [2] Inventory - As of July 24, the domestic social inventory of lead ingots increased to 7.14 tons, a week - on - week increase of 0.24 tons. Affected by continuous maintenance of primary lead and losses in recycled lead, the supply side remained tight. The narrowing price difference between recycled lead and primary lead prompted downstream to turn to primary lead procurement, resulting in a decrease in factory inventory and a slight increase in social inventory [2] Strategy - Given the current situation, the lead price is expected to maintain a volatile pattern, with the price range estimated to be between 16,400 yuan/ton and 17,050 yuan/ton [3]

Report Information - Report Title: Non-ferrous Metals Weekly (Lead) - Macro sentiment is favorable, and lead prices may consolidate strongly [1] - Report Date: July 22, 2025 [2] - Research Institute: Hongyuan Futures Research Institute [2] - Analyst: Qi Yurong (F03100031, Z0021060) [2] Investment Rating - No investment rating information is provided in the report. Core Viewpoints - The supply side shows an incremental trend as primary lead smelters resume production after maintenance and secondary lead smelters'开工 increases due to improved raw material arrivals. Meanwhile, the consumption side is gradually entering the traditional peak season, and demand is expected to improve. Considering the strong support from the raw material side and positive macro sentiment, lead prices may be strong in the short term, with an operating range of 16,500 - 17,500 yuan/ton [3] Summary by Directory 1. Market Review - SMM1 lead ingot average price decreased by 1.33% to 16,700 yuan/ton; Shanghai lead main contract closing price decreased by 1.49% to 16,820 yuan/ton; LME lead closing price (electronic disk) decreased by 0.27% to 2,011.5 US dollars/ton [13] 2. Primary Lead - Domestic lead concentrate processing fee decreased by 50 yuan/metal ton to 500 yuan/metal ton, and imported lead concentrate processing fee remained flat at -55 US dollars/dry ton. The tight ore situation remains unchanged, and TC quotes are weakly stable. Smelter profits fluctuated slightly, and as of July 11, smelter profits (excluding by-product revenues such as zinc and copper) were 93.5 yuan/ton [31] - Primary lead 开工 rate decreased to 65.82% month-on-month. Due to the price inversion of secondary lead and delivery and position transfer, primary lead factory inventories declined [32][36] - The total weekly production of deliverable primary lead smelting enterprises was 47,015 tons, with some fluctuations due to regular maintenance and recovery [38] 3. Secondary Lead - As of July 18, the average price of scrap batteries was 10,250 yuan/ton, a month-on-month decrease of 50 yuan/ton. The price of scrap batteries decreased due to recyclers' fear of falling prices, but the tight supply pattern did not improve substantially [45] - As of July 21, the comprehensive profit and loss of large-scale secondary lead enterprises was -455 yuan/ton, and that of small and medium-sized secondary lead enterprises was -680 yuan/ton [51] - As of July 17, secondary lead raw material inventory was 146,350 tons, and finished product inventory was 20,860 tons. The finished product inventory decreased due to improved downstream purchasing sentiment and long-term order delivery [55] - Secondary lead enterprises' 开工 rate increased by 2.4 percentage points to 37.9%. As of last Friday, the weekly output of secondary lead was 39,600 tons, showing an increase. The 开工 rate increased due to improved raw material inventory of secondary lead smelters as scrap battery holders sold due to fear of falling lead prices [58] 4. Lead Batteries - The 开工 rate of lead batteries increased by 0.2 percentage points to 70.96%. As the traditional peak season approaches, some enterprises reported improved orders, but high temperatures in the north affected 开工 rates. Additionally, some lead battery enterprises may face tariffs of 25 - 70% due to anti-dumping investigations, leading to pre-tariff export rush [64] 5. Import and Export - As of July 11, the export loss of refined lead was about 2,600 yuan/ton. As of July 18, the import profit was -485.5 yuan/ton, and the import profit window was closed [74] 6. Inventory - As of July 17, the total social inventory of lead ingots in five locations was 69,000 tons, showing an increase. The social inventory accumulated due to the large price difference between futures and spot and position transfer and delivery by holders [83] - As of July 18, SHFE refined lead inventory was 62,300 tons, showing a month-on-month increase, and LME inventory was 268,400 tons, also showing an increase [86] - The monthly supply and demand balance sheet shows the production, export, import, consumption, and inventory data of primary and secondary lead from January 2024 to June 2025 [87]