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产量预计修复 铅价上方空间有限
Jin Tou Wang· 2025-09-29 08:46
Core Insights - The average price of SMM1 lead ingots was 16,925 CNY/ton, while recycled refined lead averaged 16,850 CNY/ton, indicating a price differential of 75 CNY/ton for scrap lead-acid batteries priced at 9,975 CNY/ton [1] - On September 29, the lead futures market closed at 16,855 CNY/ton, with a decline of 1.38%, and trading volume reached 76,219 lots [2] - The LME reported a registered lead warehouse stock of 197,275 tons, with a decrease of 600 tons in canceled warrants, totaling 21,550 tons [2] Supply and Demand Analysis - The supply side is expected to maintain a tight balance in Q4, with some smelters in Hunan and Yunnan experiencing slight production declines due to insufficient raw material inventories [4] - The operating rate of recycled lead has been declining for six consecutive weeks, leading to weakened demand for scrap lead-acid batteries, which have seen a slight price stabilization after a drop [4] - The implementation of new national standards for electric bicycles in September has improved order conditions for some downstream companies, alongside stable demand in the energy storage battery market, suggesting a potential reduction in lead inventory [4] Transportation and Cost Factors - In Inner Mongolia, transportation vehicles are becoming tight due to the maturity of agricultural products, resulting in an increase in transportation costs by approximately 80 CNY/ton [3]
4Q25铅观点与策略:海晏河清,时雨逢春-20250929
Dong Zheng Qi Huo· 2025-09-29 07:43
海晏河清,时雨逢春 ——4Q25铅观点与策略 东证衍生品研究院 有色金属分析师 魏林峻 从业资格号: F03111542 投资咨询号:Z0021721 铅四季度观点与策略 3. 基本面或强于三季度——锚定下游大厂战略与拿货节奏 • 沪铅评级:震荡 • 区间走势:【16500,17800】,窄幅震荡+阶段性中小级别行情。 • 核心逻辑:1. 供应矛盾放大——原生再生的原料紧缺问题均将更深演绎 2. 需求谨慎转好——10月旺季改善 vs. 透支消费成品累库+出口承压 • 4Q观点:铅精矿和废电瓶紧缺加剧,内需在政策提振消费背景下有阶段性转好预期, 出口需求或延续承压。沪铅震荡中枢或有上移,有可能会随着消费转好,而出现中小 级别上涨行情,波动率或较三季度有所放大,操作上低多安全边际更高,需重点关注 大厂生产战略。 • 交易思路:单边跟随需求阶段性低多,内外比价推荐以区间操作为主。 • 策略推介:单边:短期建议关注逢低布局近月多单机会,中线锚定需求变化。 套利:月差有阶段性转B可能,内外比价上方阈值或在粗铅进口窗口。 套保:锚定需求节奏,长线买入套保。 • 风险提示:下游生产计划变动,宏观风险,需求超预期疲软。 铅精 ...
新能源及有色金属周报:供需两弱格局延续,铅价维持震荡-20250727
Hua Tai Qi Huo· 2025-07-27 14:38
1. Report Industry Investment Rating - The investment rating for the lead industry is neutral [3] 2. Core View of the Report - The lead market continues to face a situation of weak supply and demand, with the lead price expected to maintain a volatile pattern between 16,400 yuan/ton and 17,050 yuan/ton. Although there is regional tight - supply in primary lead due to maintenance, overall terminal demand has not improved significantly, and the reminder of peak - season demand is not obvious. However, in a generally positive macro - sentiment environment, the lead price may not decline significantly under the influence of the non - ferrous metals sector [1][2][3] 3. Summary by Relevant Catalogs Lead Market Analysis Mine End - In the week of July 25, the lead concentrate market remained in a tight supply - demand balance with obvious regional differentiation. In Hunan, the processing fee for silver - lead ore was negative, and actual market transactions were scarce. In contrast, supply was relatively loose in Henan and Inner Mongolia, and most smelters were less willing to adjust the pb50 processing fee. Regarding the silver pricing coefficient, only the coefficient of low - silver ore (200 - 500g/ton) was raised to 0.8, while that of high - silver ore remained unchanged [1] Primary Lead - In the week of July 25, the operating rate of the primary lead industry dropped to 63.37%, a week - on - week decline of 2.45 percentage points. Supply in Henan was tight due to delayed resumption of maintenance enterprises and production fluctuations in another smelter. Operations in Hunan and Yunnan were basically stable, with only minor output adjustments in individual small and medium - sized plants. Maintenance was the main factor restricting capacity release [1] Recycled Lead - In the week of July 25, the operating rate of the recycled lead industry rebounded to 40.68%, a week - on - week increase of 2.84 percentage points. The resumption of an Anhui smelter drove a 6.6 - percentage - point increase in the regional operating rate, and a large - scale enterprise in Inner Mongolia was about to start production. Production in Henan and Jiangsu remained stable, but the recovery volume of waste batteries still restricted capacity release. With the approaching of the traditional peak consumption season, enterprises' production willingness is gradually increasing, and the operating rate is expected to continue to rise slightly next week. Tight waste material supply is the main constraint [2] Consumption - In the week of July 25, the operating rate of the lead - acid battery industry slightly rose to 71.86%, a week - on - week increase of 0.9 percentage points. The market showed structural differentiation: some electric bicycle battery enterprises had an operating rate of up to 90% due to peak - season stocking demand, while automobile battery enterprises' operating rates fluctuated between 70 - 80% under the dual influence of weak domestic consumption and tariff policies, and some enterprises achieved full production by seizing export orders. Overall terminal demand has not improved significantly [2] Inventory - As of July 24, the domestic social inventory of lead ingots increased to 7.14 tons, a week - on - week increase of 0.24 tons. Affected by continuous maintenance of primary lead and losses in recycled lead, the supply side remained tight. The narrowing price difference between recycled lead and primary lead prompted downstream to turn to primary lead procurement, resulting in a decrease in factory inventory and a slight increase in social inventory [2] Strategy - Given the current situation, the lead price is expected to maintain a volatile pattern, with the price range estimated to be between 16,400 yuan/ton and 17,050 yuan/ton [3]
有色金属周报(铅):宏观情绪较好,铅价或偏强整理-20250722
Hong Yuan Qi Huo· 2025-07-22 12:12
Report Information - Report Title: Non-ferrous Metals Weekly (Lead) - Macro sentiment is favorable, and lead prices may consolidate strongly [1] - Report Date: July 22, 2025 [2] - Research Institute: Hongyuan Futures Research Institute [2] - Analyst: Qi Yurong (F03100031, Z0021060) [2] Investment Rating - No investment rating information is provided in the report. Core Viewpoints - The supply side shows an incremental trend as primary lead smelters resume production after maintenance and secondary lead smelters'开工 increases due to improved raw material arrivals. Meanwhile, the consumption side is gradually entering the traditional peak season, and demand is expected to improve. Considering the strong support from the raw material side and positive macro sentiment, lead prices may be strong in the short term, with an operating range of 16,500 - 17,500 yuan/ton [3] Summary by Directory 1. Market Review - SMM1 lead ingot average price decreased by 1.33% to 16,700 yuan/ton; Shanghai lead main contract closing price decreased by 1.49% to 16,820 yuan/ton; LME lead closing price (electronic disk) decreased by 0.27% to 2,011.5 US dollars/ton [13] 2. Primary Lead - Domestic lead concentrate processing fee decreased by 50 yuan/metal ton to 500 yuan/metal ton, and imported lead concentrate processing fee remained flat at -55 US dollars/dry ton. The tight ore situation remains unchanged, and TC quotes are weakly stable. Smelter profits fluctuated slightly, and as of July 11, smelter profits (excluding by-product revenues such as zinc and copper) were 93.5 yuan/ton [31] - Primary lead 开工 rate decreased to 65.82% month-on-month. Due to the price inversion of secondary lead and delivery and position transfer, primary lead factory inventories declined [32][36] - The total weekly production of deliverable primary lead smelting enterprises was 47,015 tons, with some fluctuations due to regular maintenance and recovery [38] 3. Secondary Lead - As of July 18, the average price of scrap batteries was 10,250 yuan/ton, a month-on-month decrease of 50 yuan/ton. The price of scrap batteries decreased due to recyclers' fear of falling prices, but the tight supply pattern did not improve substantially [45] - As of July 21, the comprehensive profit and loss of large-scale secondary lead enterprises was -455 yuan/ton, and that of small and medium-sized secondary lead enterprises was -680 yuan/ton [51] - As of July 17, secondary lead raw material inventory was 146,350 tons, and finished product inventory was 20,860 tons. The finished product inventory decreased due to improved downstream purchasing sentiment and long-term order delivery [55] - Secondary lead enterprises' 开工 rate increased by 2.4 percentage points to 37.9%. As of last Friday, the weekly output of secondary lead was 39,600 tons, showing an increase. The 开工 rate increased due to improved raw material inventory of secondary lead smelters as scrap battery holders sold due to fear of falling lead prices [58] 4. Lead Batteries - The 开工 rate of lead batteries increased by 0.2 percentage points to 70.96%. As the traditional peak season approaches, some enterprises reported improved orders, but high temperatures in the north affected 开工 rates. Additionally, some lead battery enterprises may face tariffs of 25 - 70% due to anti-dumping investigations, leading to pre-tariff export rush [64] 5. Import and Export - As of July 11, the export loss of refined lead was about 2,600 yuan/ton. As of July 18, the import profit was -485.5 yuan/ton, and the import profit window was closed [74] 6. Inventory - As of July 17, the total social inventory of lead ingots in five locations was 69,000 tons, showing an increase. The social inventory accumulated due to the large price difference between futures and spot and position transfer and delivery by holders [83] - As of July 18, SHFE refined lead inventory was 62,300 tons, showing a month-on-month increase, and LME inventory was 268,400 tons, also showing an increase [86] - The monthly supply and demand balance sheet shows the production, export, import, consumption, and inventory data of primary and secondary lead from January 2024 to June 2025 [87]