Group 1: Investment Rating - No investment rating information provided in the report Group 2: Core Views - The weakening US dollar is favorable for the repair of lead price trends. Environmental controls in many domestic regions and the negative profit of secondary lead smelters have led to an increase in smelter shutdowns and holidays, resulting in an expected contraction in supply. Meanwhile, downstream battery enterprises are gradually stockpiling for the Spring Festival, leading to improved demand. Against the backdrop of reduced supply and increased demand, the support for the lower limit of lead prices is strengthened. In the short term, lead prices are expected to maintain a weak and stable oscillatory repair [3][7] Group 3: Summary by Directory Transaction Data - From January 16th to January 23rd, the SHFE lead price dropped from 17,475 yuan/ton to 17,095 yuan/ton, a decrease of 380 yuan/ton; the LME lead price fell from 2,037.5 dollars/ton to 2,035 dollars/ton, a decrease of 2.5 dollars/ton; the SHFE-LME ratio decreased from 8.58 to 8.40, a decrease of 0.18; the SHFE inventory decreased by 7,693 tons to 29,351 tons; the LME inventory increased by 8,825 tons to 215,175 tons; the social inventory increased by 0.2 million tons to 3.45 million tons; the spot premium increased by 5 yuan/ton to -140 yuan/ton [4] Market Review - Last week, the main SHFE lead 2603 contract price continued to decline at the beginning of the week, but then stabilized and oscillated after the market sentiment recovered and it found support near the integer level, finally closing at 17,095 yuan/ton, with a weekly decline of 2.17%. The LME lead price stopped falling and stabilized, and the contract price stabilized and recovered to 2,035 dollars/ton, with a decline of 0.15%. In the spot market, on January 23rd, the Honglu lead in Shanghai was quoted at 17,140 - 17,210 yuan/ton, with a premium of 50 yuan/ton over the SHFE lead 2603 contract. Downstream enterprises' risk aversion sentiment was relatively alleviated, and some enterprises made rigid purchases, but the transactions were still scattered [5] Industry News - In February 2026, the domestic and international lead concentrate processing fees were 250 yuan/metal ton and -150 dollars/dry ton respectively, with the average values decreasing by 50 yuan/metal ton and -5 dollars/dry ton respectively. - In January 2026, multiple cities in Shandong and Hebei launched heavy pollution emergency responses, affecting the production of some lead smelters. - Pan American Silver Corp. produced 55,900 tons of zinc and 27,000 tons of lead in 2025, and it is expected to produce 58,500 - 62,500 tons of zinc and 30,500 - 32,500 tons of lead in 2026. - The global lead market's supply surplus decreased from 29,200 tons in October to 8,900 tons in November. - In December 2025, the import volume of lead concentrates was 149,200 tons, a month-on-month increase of 35.8% and a year-on-year increase of 24.63%; the import volume of silver concentrates was 239,300 tons, a month-on-month increase of 32.3% and a year-on-year increase of 89.3%. The export volume of refined lead was 2,767 tons, a month-on-month increase of 141.08% and a year-on-year increase of 270.61%; the cumulative export volume of refined lead and lead products from January to December was 59,440 tons, a cumulative year-on-year increase of 42.5%. The import volume of refined lead was 8,395 tons, and the import volume of lead alloys was 24,011 tons; the cumulative import volume of refined lead and lead products from January to December was 198,641 tons, a cumulative year-on-year decrease of 10.19%. The export volume of lead-acid batteries was 17.2406 million units, a month-on-month increase of 9.28 percentage points and a year-on-year decrease of 33.86 percentage points; the cumulative export volume of lead-acid batteries in 2025 was 219 million units, a year-on-year decrease of 12.79 percentage points [8][9] Related Charts - The report provides multiple charts, including SHFE and LME lead prices, SHFE-LME ratio, SHFE and LME inventories, 1 lead premium/discount, LME lead premium/discount, price difference between primary lead and secondary refined lead, waste battery prices, secondary lead enterprise profits, lead concentrate processing fees, electrolytic lead production, secondary refined lead production, lead ingot social inventory, and refined lead import profit and loss [10][11][13]

Group 1 - The domestic futures market for non-ferrous metals is mostly in the red, with lead futures showing a downward trend, reaching a low of 17,170.00 yuan/ton and a decline of approximately 2.33% [1] - The current market sentiment indicates a shift towards strong supply and weak demand, with primary lead production recovering as smelters in Hunan and Jiangxi resume operations [1] - The consumption side is experiencing a traditional off-season, with demand for lead-acid batteries not meeting expectations, leading to high inventory levels [1] Group 2 - The lead concentrate processing fees remain low, and the supply of waste batteries is tight, providing some support for lead prices [2] - The overall production of primary lead is stable, while the recovery of recycled lead is limited due to environmental controls in some regions [2] - Battery sales are poor, leading to an accumulation of finished battery inventory, which may result in battery manufacturers reducing their operating rates [2]

Report Industry Investment Rating No relevant content provided. Core Viewpoints of the Report - Last week, the main contract price of Shanghai lead futures rose first and then fell. The macro - environment was positive, with loose monetary expectations at home and abroad and geopolitical conflicts increasing the premium of resource - end products, which led to a general rise in precious metals and non - ferrous metals. [4] - Fundamentally, the supply of domestic lead ore raw materials remained tight, and the processing fee was at a low level. In the electrolytic lead sector, there were both production cuts and restarts in January, with a slight expected increase in production. In the recycled lead sector, raw material constraints still existed, and the production was expected to decline slightly month - on - month. On the demand side, consumption expectations were under pressure, and social inventories were expected to rise slowly. [4] - Overall, the macro - environment was positive, and non - ferrous metals rotated up. The supply - demand situation was weak on both sides, and the lead price was expected to fluctuate widely following the non - ferrous sector. However, due to the strong cost support, the downside space of the lead price was limited. [4][8] Summary by Relevant Catalogs Trading Data - From January 9th to January 16th, the SHFE lead price rose from 17,355 yuan/ton to 17,475 yuan/ton, an increase of 120 yuan/ton; the LME lead price fell from 2046.5 dollars/ton to 2037.5 dollars/ton, a decrease of 9 dollars/ton; the Shanghai - London ratio increased from 8.48 to 8.58, an increase of 0.10. [5] - The SHFE inventory increased from 30,111 tons to 37,044 tons, an increase of 6,933 tons; the LME inventory decreased from 222,725 tons to 206,350 tons, a decrease of 16,375 tons; the social inventory increased from 1.96 million tons to 3.25 million tons, an increase of 1.29 million tons; the spot premium decreased from - 130 yuan/ton to - 145 yuan/ton, a decrease of 15 yuan/ton. [5] Market Review - Last week, the main contract of Shanghai lead futures fluctuated widely at a high level, closing at 17,475 yuan/ton, with a weekly increase of 0.69%. LME lead first declined and then rose, closing at 2038 dollars/ton, with a decline of 0.42%. [6] - In the spot market, the supply was abundant, and the demand was weak, resulting in sluggish trading. The inventory of recycled lead smelters was high, and some lead smelting enterprises would limit production due to smog warnings, which was expected to ease the shipping pressure of holders. [6] Industry News - On January 16, 2026, the domestic and foreign lead concentrate processing fees were 300 yuan/metal ton and - 145 dollars/dry ton respectively, with the average remaining unchanged from the previous week. [9] - Starting from April 14, 2026, the London Metal Exchange (LME) will no longer accept the warehousing registration of certain zinc and lead brands. [9] - On January 16, 2026, Fuyang, Anhui issued an orange warning, and local recycled lead smelters would reduce production by 50%. [9] Related Charts - The report provides multiple charts, including the prices of SHFE and LME lead, the Shanghai - London ratio, inventory situations, lead price spreads, waste battery prices, enterprise profits, production volumes, and social inventories, which help to comprehensively analyze the lead market. [10][14][16][18][20][23][24][26][29][30]

1. Report Industry Investment Rating - Not provided in the content 2. Core View of the Report - The current lead price is near the upper edge of the long - term oscillation range, with increased contradictions between macro funds and industrial seat funds. The volatility of Shanghai lead has significantly increased. In the double - wide cycle, the relatively strong macro sentiment may push the lead price to have short - term pulses and deviate from the fundamental oscillation range. It is expected that the lead price will mainly oscillate widely following the sentiment of the non - ferrous metal sector [11] 3. Summary According to Relevant Catalogs 3.1. Weekly Assessment - **Price Review**: Last Friday, the Shanghai lead index closed up 0.14% at 17,381 yuan/ton with a total unilateral trading position of 113,800 lots. As of 15:00 last Friday, LME lead 3S rose 9 to 2,040 US dollars/ton with a total position of 177,400 lots. The average price of SMM 1 lead ingot was 17,175 yuan/ton, the average price of recycled refined lead was 17,025 yuan/ton, the refined - scrap spread was 150 yuan/ton, and the average price of waste electric vehicle batteries was 10,000 yuan/ton [11] - **Domestic Structure**: The social inventory of lead ingots in major domestic markets was 20,200 tons, an increase of 1,300 tons from January 5. The futures inventory of lead ingots on the SHFE was 16,200 tons, the domestic primary basis was - 80 yuan/ton, and the spread between continuous contracts and the first - continuous contract was - 15 yuan/ton. **Overseas Structure**: The LME lead ingot inventory was 226,500 tons, and the LME lead ingot cancelled warrants were 64,000 tons. The overseas cash - 3S contract basis was - 43.39 US dollars/ton, and the 3 - 15 spread was - 115.5 US dollars/ton. **Cross - market Structure**: After excluding exchange rates, the on - screen Shanghai - London ratio was 1.222, and the import profit and loss of lead ingots was 341.51 yuan/ton [11] - **Industrial Data**: At the primary end, the port inventory of lead concentrates was 51,000 tons, the factory inventory was 484,000 tons, equivalent to 33.8 days. The lead concentrate import TC was - 145 US dollars/dry ton, and the domestic TC was 300 yuan/metal ton. The primary smelting start - up rate was 66.60%, and the primary ingot factory inventory was 23,000 tons. At the recycled end, the lead scrap inventory was 83,000 tons, the weekly production of recycled lead ingots was 43,000 tons, and the recycled ingot factory inventory was 18,000 tons. At the demand end, the lead - acid battery start - up rate was 66.59% [11] 3.2. Primary Supply - **Imports**: In November 2025, the net import of lead concentrates was 109,800 physical tons, with a year - on - year change of 15.7% and a month - on - month change of 11.7%. From January to November, the cumulative net import of lead concentrates was 1,278,500 physical tons, with a cumulative year - on - year change of 14.3%. The net import of silver concentrates in November was 180,900 physical tons, with a year - on - year change of 26.5% and a month - on - month change of 21.1%. From January to November, the cumulative net import of silver concentrates was 1,686,600 physical tons, with a cumulative year - on - year change of 7.2% [15] - **Domestic Production**: In December 2025, China's lead concentrate production was 126,300 metal tons, with a year - on - year change of 4.04% and a month - on - month change of - 7.54%. From January to December, the total production of lead concentrates was 1,658,200 metal tons, with a cumulative year - on - year change of 9.89%. In November 2025, the net import of lead - containing ores was 138,300 metal tons, with a year - on - year change of 21.11% and a month - on - month change of 16.45%. From January to November, the cumulative net import of lead - containing ores was 1,441,700 metal tons, with a cumulative year - on - year change of 10.85% [17] - **Total Supply**: In November 2025, China's total lead concentrate supply was 274,900 metal tons, with a year - on - year change of 10.09% and a month - on - month change of 3.75%. From January to November, the cumulative lead concentrate supply was 2,973,600 metal tons, with a cumulative year - on - year change of 10.62%. In October 2025, overseas lead ore production was 256,800 tons, with a year - on - year change of - 3.39% and a month - on - month change of 6.60%. From January to October, the total overseas lead ore production was 2,407,700 tons, with a cumulative year - on - year change of - 2.35% [19] - **Inventory and Processing Fees**: The port inventory of lead concentrates at the primary end was 51,000 tons, and the factory inventory was 484,000 tons, equivalent to 33.8 days. The lead concentrate import TC was - 145 US dollars/dry ton, and the domestic TC was 300 yuan/metal ton [21][23] - **Smelting Start - up Rate and Production**: The primary smelting start - up rate was 66.60%, and the primary ingot factory inventory was 23,000 tons. In December 2025, China's primary lead production was 332,700 tons, with a year - on - year change of 1.56% and a month - on - month change of 1.56%. From January to December, the total production of primary lead ingots was 3,847,200 tons, with a cumulative year - on - year change of 6.32% [26] 3.3. Recycled Supply - **Raw Materials and Weekly Production**: At the recycled end, the lead scrap inventory was 83,000 tons. The weekly production of recycled lead ingots was 43,000 tons, and the recycled ingot factory inventory was 18,000 tons. In December 2025, China's recycled lead production was 354,500 tons, with a year - on - year change of 10.3% and a month - on - month change of - 5.04%. From January to December, the total production of recycled lead ingots was 3,962,900 tons, with a cumulative year - on - year change of 4.52% [31][33] - **Imports and Total Supply**: In November 2025, the net export of lead ingots was - 23,000 tons, with a year - on - year change of 262.0% and a month - on - month change of 52.6%. From January to November, the cumulative net export of lead ingots was - 118,200 tons, with a cumulative year - on - year change of - 32.4%. The total domestic lead ingot supply in November was 723,900 tons, with a year - on - year change of 9.9% and a month - on - month change of 5.3%. From January to November, the cumulative domestic lead ingot supply was 7,241,100 tons, with a cumulative year - on - year change of 4.4% [35] 3.4. Demand Analysis - **Battery Start - up Rate and Apparent Demand**: At the demand end, the lead - acid battery start - up rate was 66.59%. In November 2025, the domestic apparent demand for lead ingots was 680,000 tons, with a year - on - year change of 0.9% and a month - on - month change of - 1.4%. From January to November, the cumulative domestic apparent demand for lead ingots was 7,206,400 tons, with a cumulative year - on - year change of 3.6% [38] - **Battery Exports**: In November 2025, the net export volume of batteries was 1,530,070 units, with a year - on - year change of - 22.0% and a month - on - month change of - 5.23%. From January to November, the total net export of lead - containing batteries was 19,680,580 units, with a cumulative year - on - year change of - 10.47% [41] - **Inventory Days**: In December 2025, the finished - product inventory days of lead - acid batteries in factories increased from 20.9 days to 21.5 days, and the inventory days of lead - acid batteries in dealers increased from 40.7 days to 43.6 days [43] - **Terminal Demand**: In the two - wheeled vehicle sector, although the decline in electric bicycle production directly dragged down the new - installation demand, the continuous growth of delivery scenarios such as express delivery and takeaway drove the improvement of new - installation consumption of electric two - and three - wheeled vehicles. In the automobile sector, the contribution of the automobile sector to lead demand is expected to maintain stable growth. The use of lead in the automobile sector is mainly for automobile starting batteries. Although new - energy vehicles are gradually replacing lead - acid starting batteries with lithium - iron phosphate starting batteries, the high stock of existing vehicles and the high demand for replacement of starting batteries support the domestic lead ingot consumption. In the base - station sector, the rapid development of communication technology and the increasing number of communication base stations and 5G base stations across the country have led to a steady increase in the demand for lead - acid batteries [47][49][52] 3.5. Supply - Demand and Inventory - **Domestic Supply - Demand Balance**: In November 2025, the domestic supply - demand difference of lead ingots was a surplus of 700 tons. From January to November, the cumulative domestic supply - demand difference of lead ingots was a shortage of - 8,400 tons [61] - **Overseas Supply - Demand Balance**: In October 2025, the supply - demand difference of overseas refined lead was a surplus of 5,400 tons. From January to October, the cumulative supply - demand difference of overseas refined lead was a surplus of 98,400 tons [64] 3.6. Price Outlook - **Domestic Structure**: The social inventory of lead ingots in major domestic markets was 20,200 tons, an increase of 1,300 tons from January 5. The futures inventory of lead ingots on the SHFE was 16,200 tons, the domestic primary basis was - 80 yuan/ton, and the spread between continuous contracts and the first - continuous contract was - 15 yuan/ton [69] - **Overseas Structure**: The LME lead ingot inventory was 226,500 tons, and the LME lead ingot cancelled warrants were 64,000 tons. The overseas cash - 3S contract basis was - 43.39 US dollars/ton, and the 3 - 15 spread was - 115.5 US dollars/ton [71] - **Cross - market Structure**: After excluding exchange rates, the on - screen Shanghai - London ratio was 1.222, and the import profit and loss of lead ingots was 341.51 yuan/ton [74] - **Position Analysis**: The net - long concentration of the top 20 positions in Shanghai lead was relatively high. The LME lead investment fund seats became net - long, and the net - short positions of commercial enterprises increased. From the perspective of positions, the contradiction between speculative funds and industrial funds increased [77]

Report Industry Investment Rating - Not provided Core Viewpoints - The rebound momentum of lead is insufficient, and it may continue to fluctuate. The short - term supply pressure of lead is relieved, and the low domestic inventory continuing to decline is beneficial to lead prices. However, due to the year - end closing of downstream enterprises, weak demand, and the pressure of imported lead inflow, there is a lack of continuous upward momentum in the domestic market. But with the increase in costs, there is strong support at the bottom, so it may move in a fluctuating manner. Later, attention should be paid to the production dynamics of recycled lead and downstream demand [1][5] Summary by Related Catalogs Fundamental Changes - In 2025, China imported 110,000 tons of lead concentrate in physical quantity, a year - on - year increase of 15.8% and a month - on - month increase of 11.7%. The import volume was at the average level in recent years. Due to the high demand in the domestic lead concentrate market in winter, the tight situation at the domestic mine end intensified, and the processing fees of domestic and foreign lead concentrates further declined at low levels [2] - In December, the domestic monthly processing fee was 200 - 400 yuan/ton, a monthly decrease of 50 yuan; the imported monthly processing fee was - 160 - - 130 US dollars/dry ton, a monthly decrease of 20 US dollars. In terms of spot processing fees, the domestic weekly processing fee for lead ore was 250 - 350 yuan/ton, with no change week - on - week; the imported weekly processing fee was - 150 - - 120 US dollars/dry ton, also with no change week - on - week [2] Supply - In November, the national electrolytic lead output increased slightly, a month - on - month increase of 0.49 percentage points and a year - on - year decrease of 1.61 percentage points; the output of recycled refined lead increased by 8.5% month - on - month and 10.13% year - on - year [3] - Last week, the operating rate of primary lead smelters in three provinces was 67.35%, a month - on - month increase of 1.82%. The operating rates in Henan and Hunan remained stable. Some smelters in Hunan mentioned that environmental inspections affected the start - up of crude lead, but the electrolytic volume last week could maintain stable production. It is expected that the electrolytic lead output may decline slightly this week. A medium - large - scale smelter in Yunnan continued to increase production after the end of maintenance, and a small - scale smelter resumed production and slightly increased production. Other smelters maintained normal operation. A smelter in East China that had stopped production for maintenance has not resumed yet and is expected to resume at the end of December [3] - The weekly operating rate of recycled lead in four provinces was 41.61%, a month - on - month decrease of 3.75%. Due to severe air pollution in many places in East and North China last week, environmental management was implemented. Anhui smelting enterprises significantly reduced production, and the regional operating rate decreased by 11.88% month - on - month; the operating rates in Henan and Jiangsu remained the same as last week. A recycled lead smelter in Inner Mongolia temporarily stopped production due to equipment part replacement and resumed normal production last week, and the regional operating rate rebounded, but local smelters said that the pressure on production due to raw material supply shortages still existed [3] - This week, the price of waste batteries continued to rise, the profit of recycled lead enterprises narrowed, and combined with the large environmental protection disturbances of recycled lead, the supply pressure of recycled lead was relieved. In terms of imports, the Shanghai - London price ratio improved, the import window for refined lead remained open, and the profit increased [3] Consumption - Last week, the weekly comprehensive operating rate of lead - acid battery enterprises in five provinces was 74.23%, a month - on - month decrease of 0.41%. Since December, the new national standard for electric bicycles has been officially implemented in the terminal market, but the actual consumption has not improved significantly due to the increase in the weight of the whole vehicle. Instead, due to consumers being in the adaptation period, the sales volume of the whole vehicle declined, dragging down battery consumption. Some lead - acid battery enterprises have slightly reduced production or planned to reduce production, dragging down the operating rate of lead - acid battery enterprises this week [4] - The automotive battery market has entered the traditional consumption peak season. Except for some export - oriented enterprises with poor orders due to factors such as tariffs, the operating rates of other medium - and large - scale enterprises are relatively stable. Near the end of the year, traders and battery enterprises are closing their accounts at the end of the year, and the inventory preparation of battery enterprises for the New Year's Day holiday is average. The spot trading is weak, and most downstream enterprises have stopped purchasing, resulting in low market transactions [4] Spot - As of the week of December 19, the domestic lead spot basis premium increased, and the lead spot basis was at a premium of 130 yuan at the end of last week. The LME lead spot continued to be in a deep discount state, with a discount of - 45.23 US dollars at the end of last week [4] Inventory - As of the week of December 18, the LME lead weekly inventory increased by 23,875 tons to 258,600 tons, and the LME inventory continued to rise from a high level; the weekly inventory of lead on the Shanghai Futures Exchange decreased by 4,352 tons to 27,900 tons. As of December 22, the total social inventory of lead ingots in five places decreased to 19,100 tons, and the inventory continued to decline, reaching an absolute low level in the past four years [4]

Report Investment Rating - No investment rating for the industry is provided in the report. Core Viewpoint - From the perspective of industrial data, the visible inventory of lead ore has increased, but the smelting start - up rate of primary lead has declined, while that of secondary lead has continued to rise. The weekly start - up rate of downstream battery enterprises has increased marginally, and the visible inventory of domestic lead ingots has decreased marginally. In terms of funds, after two consecutive weeks of decline, the lead price has returned to the oscillation center of 17,000 yuan. Considering the Fed's interest - rate cut cycle, the sentiment in the non - ferrous metals industry is relatively positive, and the short - term lead price is expected to be strong [11]. Summary by Directory 1. Weekly Assessment - **Price Review**: On Friday, the Shanghai Lead Index closed up 0.77% at 17,087 yuan/ton with a total unilateral trading position of 73,500 lots. As of 15:00 on Friday, LME Lead 3S rose 13 to $1,990/ton with a total position of 166,200 lots. The average price of SMM 1 lead ingots and secondary refined lead was 16,975 yuan/ton, with a flat price difference between refined and scrap. The average price of waste electric vehicle batteries was 9,900 yuan/ton [11]. - **Domestic Structure**: According to Steel Union data, the domestic social inventory of lead ingots decreased slightly to 35,300 tons. The futures inventory of lead ingots on the Shanghai Futures Exchange was 26,300 tons, with an internal primary basis of - 65 yuan/ton and a spread of - 35 yuan/ton between consecutive contracts. **Overseas Structure**: The LME lead ingot inventory was 264,200 tons, and the LME lead ingot cancelled warrants were 140,400 tons. The external cash - 3S contract basis was - $38.94/ton, and the 3 - 15 spread was - $82.8/ton. **Cross - Market Structure**: After excluding exchange rates, the Shanghai - London ratio was 1.215, and the import profit and loss of lead ingots was 143.13 yuan/ton [11]. - **Industrial Data**: At the primary end, the port inventory of lead concentrate was 32,000 tons, and the factory inventory was 474,000 tons, equivalent to 30.7 days. The import TC of lead concentrate was - $135/dry ton, and the domestic TC was 300 yuan/metal ton. The primary smelting start - up rate was 65.32%, and the primary ingot factory inventory was 9,000 tons. At the secondary end, the waste lead inventory was 102,000 tons, the weekly output of secondary lead ingots was 46,000 tons, and the secondary ingot factory inventory was 7,000 tons. At the demand end, the start - up rate of lead - acid battery enterprises was 73.39% [11]. 2. Primary Supply - **Import and Production**: In October 2025, the net import of lead concentrate was 98,300 physical tons, a year - on - year change of - 39.7% and a month - on - month change of - 34.6%. From January to October, the cumulative net import was 1,167,300 physical tons, a cumulative year - on - year change of 14.0%. The net import of silver concentrate in October was 149,400 physical tons, a year - on - year change of 11.4% and a month - on - month change of - 7.0%. From January to October, the cumulative net import was 1,507,900 physical tons, a cumulative year - on - year change of 5.4%. In October, China's lead concentrate production was 146,200 metal tons, a year - on - year change of 10.6% and a month - on - month change of - 3.4%. From January to October, the total production was 1,395,300 metal tons, a cumulative year - on - year change of 11.4%. The net import of lead - containing ore in October was 118,700 metal tons, a year - on - year change of - 21.6% and a month - on - month change of - 23.2%. From January to October, the cumulative net import was 1,303,500 metal tons, a cumulative year - on - year change of 9.9% [15][17]. - **Total Supply**: In October 2025, China's total supply of lead concentrate was 264,900 metal tons, a year - on - year change of - 6.6% and a month - on - month change of - 13.4%. From January to October, the cumulative supply was 2,698,800 metal tons, a cumulative year - on - year change of 10.7%. In August 2025, the global lead ore production was 383,300 tons, a year - on - year change of - 1.2% and a month - on - month change of 0.5%. From January to August, the total production was 3,008,800 tons, a cumulative year - on - year change of 3.1% [19]. - **Inventory and Processing Fees**: At the primary end, the port inventory of lead concentrate was 32,000 tons, and the factory inventory was 474,000 tons, equivalent to 30.7 days. The import TC of lead concentrate was - $135/dry ton, and the domestic TC was 300 yuan/metal ton [21][23]. - **Smelting and Production**: The primary smelting start - up rate was 65.32%, and the primary ingot factory inventory was 9,000 tons. In October 2025, China's primary lead production was 326,000 tons, a year - on - year change of 2.7% and a month - on - month change of - 0.5%. From January to October, the total production of primary lead ingots was 3,186,900 tons, a cumulative year - on - year change of 7.7% [26]. 3. Secondary Supply - **Raw Materials and Weekly Output**: At the secondary end, the waste lead inventory was 102,000 tons. The weekly output of secondary lead ingots was 46,000 tons, and the secondary ingot factory inventory was 7,000 tons. In October 2025, China's secondary lead production was 346,300 tons, a year - on - year change of 11.9% and a month - on - month change of 9.2%. From January to October, the total production of secondary lead ingots was 3,235,100 tons, a cumulative year - on - year change of 2.7% [31][33]. - **Net Export and Total Supply**: In October 2025, the net export of lead ingots was - 15,100 tons, a year - on - year change of 92.6% and a month - on - month change of 21.9%. From January to October, the cumulative net export of lead ingots was - 95,200 tons, a cumulative year - on - year change of - 43.5%. In October, the total domestic supply of lead ingots was 687,400 tons, a year - on - year change of 8.3% and a month - on - month change of 4.6%. From January to October, the cumulative domestic supply of lead ingots was 6,517,200 tons, a cumulative year - on - year change of 3.8% [35]. 4. Demand Analysis - **Battery Start - up Rate and Apparent Demand**: At the demand end, the start - up rate of lead - acid battery enterprises was 73.39%. In October 2025, the apparent domestic demand for lead ingots was 689,700 tons, a year - on - year change of 5.9% and a month - on - month change of - 4.1%. From January to October, the cumulative apparent domestic demand for lead ingots was 6,526,400 tons, a cumulative year - on - year change of 3.9% [40]. - **Battery Export**: In October 2025, the net export quantity of batteries was 1,614,520 units, and the net export weight was 84,600 tons. It was estimated that the net export of lead in batteries was 52,900 tons, a year - on - year change of - 15.1% and a month - on - month change of - 12.8%. From January to October, the total net export of lead in batteries was 607,600 tons, and the cumulative net export of lead in batteries had a year - on - year change of - 5.0% [43]. - **Inventory Days**: In October 2025, the finished product inventory days of lead - acid battery factories increased from 19.7 days to 24.5 days, and the inventory days of lead - acid batteries for dealers increased from 39.7 days to 41 days [45]. - **Terminal Demand**: In the two - wheeled vehicle sector, although the production decline of electric bicycles directly dragged down the new installation demand, the continuous growth of delivery scenarios such as express delivery and takeaway drove the improvement of the new installation consumption of electric two - and three - wheeled vehicles. In the automotive sector, the contribution of lead demand is expected to maintain stable growth. Although new energy vehicles are gradually replacing lead - acid start - up batteries, the high stock of existing vehicles still provides support for lead consumption. In the base station sector, the increasing number of communication base stations and 5G base stations driven by the development of communication technology has led to a steady increase in the demand for lead - acid batteries [49][51][54]. 5. Supply - Demand and Inventory - **Domestic Supply - Demand Gap**: In October 2025, the domestic supply - demand gap of lead ingots was a shortage of - 2,400 tons. From January to October, the cumulative domestic supply - demand gap of lead ingots was a shortage of - 9,200 tons [63]. - **Overseas Supply - Demand Gap**: In August 2025, the overseas supply - demand gap of refined lead was a shortage of - 19,400 tons. From January to August, the cumulative overseas supply - demand gap of refined lead was a shortage of - 46,900 tons [66]. 6. Price Outlook - **Domestic Basis and Spread**: According to Steel Union data, the domestic social inventory of lead ingots decreased slightly to 35,300 tons. The futures inventory of lead ingots on the Shanghai Futures Exchange was 26,300 tons, with an internal primary basis of - 65 yuan/ton and a spread of - 35 yuan/ton between consecutive contracts [71]. - **Overseas Basis and Spread**: The LME lead ingot inventory was 264,200 tons, and the LME lead ingot cancelled warrants were 140,400 tons. The external cash - 3S contract basis was - $38.94/ton, and the 3 - 15 spread was - $82.8/ton [74]. - **Internal - External Spread**: After excluding exchange rates, the Shanghai - London ratio was 1.215, and the import profit and loss of lead ingots was 143.13 yuan/ton [77]. - **Position Analysis**: The net short position of the top 20 holders of Shanghai Lead decreased significantly, the net long position of investment funds in LME Lead decreased, and the net short position of commercial enterprises decreased. From the perspective of positions, the short - term guidance is bullish [80].

1. Report Industry Investment Rating There is no information provided in the report regarding the industry investment rating. 2. Core Viewpoints of the Report - Domestic smelter production increase and decrease coexist, and the supply shortage has improved. After the consumer end resumes production, it is expected to maintain just - in - time procurement. The terminal peak season is not prosperous. It is expected that the lead price may fluctuate weakly in the short term. Pay attention to the support level of 17,000 - 17,100 yuan/ton. In the future, continuous attention should be paid to the impact of raw material arrivals on smelter operations [3]. 3. Summaries According to Relevant Catalogs 3.1 Market Review - The opening of primary lead smelters increased and decreased, with small fluctuations in production. The opening of secondary lead smelters continued to rise due to improved profits and raw material supply. The opening of battery enterprises declined due to limited cost transfer. The import profit window was gradually closing, and downstream procurement was poor, leading to an increase in inventory [4][21][34][53][61][69]. - SMM 1 lead ingot average price decreased by 0.43% to 17,225 yuan/ton, Shanghai lead main contract closing price decreased by 1.17% to 17,390 yuan/ton, and LME lead closing price (electronic disk) increased by 0.42% to 2,025 US dollars/ton [10]. 3.2 Mineral Supply and TC - The tight mineral supply pattern has not been alleviated, and TC is stable with a weakening trend. Domestic lead concentrate processing fee remained flat at 350 yuan/metal ton, and imported lead concentrate processing fee remained flat at - 125 US dollars/dry ton. Smelter profits declined, and as of October 24, smelter profits (excluding by - product revenues such as zinc and copper) were 106 yuan/ton [22][27]. 3.3 Primary Lead - The primary lead operating rate decreased to 67.17% on a month - on - month basis. The total weekly production of major deliverable primary lead smelting enterprises was expected to be 50,050 tons, with some enterprises having maintenance plans and others resuming normal production [28][33]. 3.4 Secondary Lead - The price of waste batteries was firm. As of October 31, the average price of waste batteries was 10,025 yuan/ton, a month - on - month increase of 25 yuan/ton. The profit of secondary lead smelters declined slightly. As of November 3, the comprehensive profit of large - scale secondary lead enterprises was 160 yuan/ton, and that of small - and medium - scale enterprises was - 56 yuan/ton [37][46]. - The raw material inventory of secondary lead decreased, and the finished product inventory increased. As of October 30, the raw material inventory was 134,450 tons, and the finished product inventory was 3,940 tons. It is expected that the finished product inventory will further accumulate [47][49]. - The secondary lead operating rate increased by 1.2 percentage points to 43.4%. As of last Friday, the weekly production of secondary lead was 51,300 tons, with a slight decline. It is expected that the operating rate will continue to rise [50][52]. 3.5 Lead Batteries - The lead battery operating rate decreased by 6.46 percentage points to 68.9%. Due to limited terminal demand and high lead prices, some enterprises reduced production to avoid over - inventory. It is expected that the operating rate will recover this week [58][60]. 3.6 Import and Export - As of October 24, the refined lead export loss was about 3,200 yuan/ton. As of October 31, the import profit was 24.99 yuan/ton, and the import profit window was gradually closing [63][68]. 3.7 Inventory - As of October 30, the total social inventory of lead ingots in five locations was 29,800 tons, a decrease; the inventory of major deliverable primary lead brands in factories was 8,600 tons, a month - on - month increase. High lead prices suppressed downstream procurement, leading to inventory accumulation [72][78]. - As of October 31, SHFE refined lead inventory was 36,000 tons, a month - on - month decrease; as of October 30, LME inventory was 220,300 tons, a decrease [79][81]. - The monthly supply - demand balance table shows the production, import, export, consumption, and inventory data of primary and secondary lead from January 2024 to August 2025 [82].

Report Industry Investment Rating - Not provided in the content Core Viewpoints of the Report - This week, the Shanghai lead futures showed a volatile trend, with the main contract 2512 of Shanghai lead futures being active and falling 1.34%. Due to the expected increase in secondary lead production and unchanged demand, the Shanghai lead price oscillated downward [4]. - In terms of supply, primary lead production is expected to increase slightly, while secondary lead supply may grow next week but with limited growth due to environmental - related transportation controls and tight waste battery supplies. On the demand side, the weekly operating rate of lead - acid battery enterprises has rebounded, and the traditional consumption peak season provides some support for lead demand. However, the expansion of the Shanghai - London ratio of lead ingots and tariff - affected exports of lead - acid batteries will suppress demand growth. Inventory is decreasing, but with the expected increase in imported lead arrivals and potential growth in secondary lead production, inventory may change next week, and a slowdown in inventory depletion will resist price increases. Overall, Shanghai lead is expected to oscillate next week with limited upside, and it is recommended to short on rallies [4]. - For operation, it is suggested that the main contract 2512 of Shanghai lead oscillates in the range of 17,200 - 17,500, with a stop - loss range of 17,100 - 17,600. Attention should be paid to operation rhythm and risk control [4]. Summary According to the Directory 1. Week - on - Week Summary - **Market Review**: The Shanghai lead futures showed a volatile trend this week, and the main contract 2512 fell 1.34%. Due to the expected increase in secondary lead production and unchanged demand, the price oscillated downward [4]. - **Market Outlook**: Supply may grow slightly with limitations. Demand has some support but is also suppressed. Inventory may change, and price upside is limited. It is recommended to short on rallies [4]. - **Operation Suggestion**: The main contract 2512 of Shanghai lead oscillates in the range of 17,200 - 17,500, with a stop - loss range of 17,100 - 17,600 [4]. 2. Futures and Spot Market - **Price and Ratio**: Domestic futures prices of Shanghai lead decreased compared with last week, while foreign futures prices increased, and the ratio decreased. As of October 30, 2025, the LME 3 - month lead futures closing price was $2,022 per ton, the lead futures closing price (active contract) was 17,350 yuan per ton, and the Shanghai - London ratio of lead was 8.584 [6][10]. - **Premium and Discount**: Domestic futures premium and discount strengthened, and foreign premium and discount also strengthened. As of October 30, 2025, the Chinese futures premium and discount was - 160 yuan per ton, and the LME lead premium and discount (0 - 3) was - $33.99 per ton [12][14]. - **Inventory and Warehouse Receipts**: Foreign lead inventory decreased, domestic inventory increased, warehouse receipt quantity decreased, and overall lead inventory decreased. As of October 23, 2025, the total lead inventory was 27,900 tons (up 1,800 tons), the total LME lead inventory was 224,175 tons (down 11,200 tons), and the warehouse receipt quantity of Shanghai lead was 21,645 tons (down 2,089 tons) [31][35]. 3. Industry Situation - **Supply - Side**: - **Primary Lead**: As of October 23, 2025, the average operating rate of primary lead in major production areas was 82.65% (up 1.01% from last week), and the weekly output was 39,600 tons (up 500 tons from last week) [18][20]. - **Secondary Lead**: As of October 23, 2025, the average capacity utilization rate of secondary lead was 51.88% (up 3.8% month - on - month), and the output in major domestic production areas was 22,500 tons (up 2,900 tons month - on - month) [25][29]. - **Imports and Exports**: In September 2025, refined lead exports decreased by 43.62% month - on - month and increased by 408.31% year - on - year. Refined lead imports decreased by 17.17% month - on - month and 94.69% year - on - year. Lead alloy imports were 12,784 tons. Lead concentrate imports increased by 11.72% month - on - month and decreased by 7.21% year - on - year. Lead ingot imports were 12,000 tons (up 1,200 tons month - on - month, an increase of 11.11%, and down 22,600 tons year - on - year, a decrease of 65.33%) [37][39]. - **Demand - Side**: - **Processing Fees**: As of October 23, 2025, the national average processing fee of lead concentrate was 380 yuan per ton, and the average processing fee of imported lead concentrate (Pb60) was - $90 per thousand tons [41][43]. - **Automobile Market**: In September 2025, overall automobile sales were 3.226 million (up 12.9% month - on - month and 14.9% year - on - year). New energy vehicle sales were 1.604 million (up 24.6% year - on - year). The growth of new energy vehicles may lead to a decline in lead demand [45][48]. - **Recycling and Product Prices**: As of October 30, 2025, the average price of waste lead batteries (48V/20AH) in Zhejiang was 394 yuan per group, and the price of lead - antimony alloy (for batteries, containing 2 - 4% antimony) in Shanghai was 19,410 yuan per ton [50][53].

Report Industry Investment Rating No relevant content provided. Core Viewpoints - From September 1st to October 10th, the Shanghai Lead Index fluctuated upwards, with the total position decreasing. The LME Lead also rose. The domestic lead ingot factory and social inventories declined continuously. Considering the strong performance of precious metals and non - ferrous metals recently, the sector sentiment is positive. It is expected that the Shanghai Lead will oscillate widely at a low level in the short term [11]. Summary by Directory 1. Monthly Assessment - **Price Review**: From September 1st to October 10th, the Shanghai Lead Index rose 1.57% to 17,140 yuan/ton, with a 0.46 - thousand - hand decrease in total positions. The LME Lead rose 1.63% to 2,026.5 dollars/ton. As of the report end, the SMM1 lead ingot average price was 16,800 yuan/ton, the recycled refined lead average price was 16,775 yuan/ton, and the refined - scrap spread was 25 yuan/ton. The SHFE lead ingot futures inventory was 30.1 thousand tons, the domestic primary basis was - 120 yuan/ton, and the continuous - first - continuous contract spread was - 15 yuan/ton. The LME lead ingot inventory was 236.1 thousand tons, and the LME lead ingot cancelled warrants were 49.6 thousand tons. The foreign cash - 3S contract basis was - 37.3 dollars/ton, and the 3 - 15 spread was - 74.2 dollars/ton. After excluding exchange rates, the Shanghai - London ratio was 1.193, and the lead ingot import profit and loss was - 358.36 yuan/ton. The domestic social inventory decreased to 35.8 thousand tons [11]. - **Industry Data**: At the primary end, the lead concentrate port inventory was 17 thousand tons, the factory inventory was 432 thousand tons (equivalent to 26.0 days). The lead concentrate import TC was - 110 dollars/dry ton, and the domestic TC was 350 yuan/metal ton. The primary smelting start - up rate was 66.49%, and the primary ingot factory inventory was 3 thousand tons. At the recycled end, the lead scrap inventory was 94 thousand tons, the weekly output of recycled lead ingots was 31 thousand tons, and the recycled ingot factory inventory was 10 thousand tons. The lead battery start - up rate was 71.62% [11]. - **Overall Outlook**: At the primary end, the visible lead ore inventory declined again, with a slower inventory accumulation rate than in previous years, and the lead concentrate processing fees continued to decline. Although raw material shortages restricted primary smelting start - up, the start - up rate was still higher than in previous years. At the recycled end, the scrap inventory increased slightly, and the decline in raw material prices promoted the repair of recycled smelting profits, with a slight recovery in recycled start - up. The downstream battery enterprises' start - up was higher than in previous years. After the battery inventory pressure decreased, downstream purchases increased slightly. The domestic lead ingot factory and social inventories decreased continuously, and combined with the recent strong performance of precious metals and non - ferrous metals, the sector sentiment was good [11]. 2. Primary Supply - **Imports and Production**: In August 2025, the net import of lead concentrates was 134.8 thousand physical tons, a 15.9% year - on - year change and a 10.4% month - on - month change. From January to August, the cumulative net import of lead concentrates was 919.7 thousand physical tons, a 31.5% cumulative year - on - year change. The net import of silver concentrates in August was 185 thousand physical tons, a 15.8% year - on - year change and a 20.0% month - on - month change. From January to August, the cumulative net import of silver concentrates was 1,191.1 thousand physical tons, a 6.3% cumulative year - on - year change. In August, China's lead concentrate production was 156.1 thousand metal tons, a 13.9% year - on - year change and a 1.0% month - on - month change. From January to August, the total lead concentrate production was 1,097.7 thousand metal tons, an 11.8% cumulative year - on - year change. The net import of lead - containing ores in August was 154.9 thousand metal tons, a 15.8% year - on - year change and a 14.8% month - on - month change. From January to August, the cumulative net import of lead - containing ores was 1,028.2 thousand metal tons, an 18.5% cumulative year - on - year change [15][17]. - **Total Supply**: In August 2025, China's total lead concentrate supply was 311 thousand metal tons, a 14.9% year - on - year change and a 7.4% month - on - month change. From January to August, the cumulative lead concentrate supply was 2,125.9 thousand metal tons, a 14.9% cumulative year - on - year change. In June 2025, the global lead ore production was 395.9 thousand tons, a 1.4% year - on - year change and a 4.1% month - on - month change. From January to June, the total global lead ore production was 2,256.5 thousand tons, a 4.6% cumulative year - on - year change [19]. - **Inventory and Processing Fees**: The lead concentrate port inventory was 17 thousand tons, and the factory inventory was 432 thousand tons (equivalent to 26.0 days). The lead concentrate import TC was - 110 dollars/dry ton, and the domestic TC was 350 yuan/metal ton [21][23]. - **Smelting Start - up and Output**: The primary smelting start - up rate was 66.49%, and the primary ingot factory inventory was 3 thousand tons. In September 2025, China's primary lead production was 327.8 thousand tons, a 12.4% year - on - year change and a 1.0% month - on - month change. From January to September, the total primary lead ingot production was 2,860.9 thousand tons, an 8.3% cumulative year - on - year change [26]. 3. Recycled Supply - **Raw Materials and Output**: At the recycled end, the lead scrap inventory was 86.4 thousand tons. The weekly output of recycled lead ingots was 31.9 thousand tons, and the recycled ingot factory inventory was 9.8 thousand tons. In September 2025, China's recycled lead production was 317 thousand tons, a 5.5% year - on - year change and a - 1.0% month - on - month change. From January to September, the total recycled lead ingot production was 2,888.8 thousand tons, a 1.7% cumulative year - on - year change [31][33]. - **Imports and Total Supply**: In August 2025, the net export of lead ingots was - 11.3 thousand tons, an - 86.1% year - on - year change and a - 10.5% month - on - month change. From January to August, the cumulative net export of lead ingots was - 67.8 thousand tons, a - 43.2% cumulative year - on - year change. In August, the domestic total lead ingot supply was 656.2 thousand tons, a - 5.4% year - on - year change and a 0.3% month - on - month change. From January to August, the domestic cumulative lead ingot supply was 5,172.7 thousand tons, a 3.3% cumulative year - on - year change [35]. 4. Demand Analysis - **Battery Start - up and Demand**: The lead battery start - up rate was 71.62%. In August 2025, the apparent domestic lead ingot demand was 639.3 thousand tons, a - 5.3% year - on - year change and a - 1.9% month - on - month change. From January to August, the domestic cumulative apparent lead ingot demand was 5,117.7 thousand tons, a 1.6% cumulative year - on - year change [40]. - **Battery Exports**: In August 2025, the net export quantity of batteries was 1.78165 million, and the net export weight was 97.9 thousand tons. The estimated net export of lead in batteries was 61.2 thousand tons, an - 11.3% year - on - year change and an - 8.2% month - on - month change. From January to August, the total net export of lead in batteries was 494.1 thousand tons, a - 4.4% cumulative year - on - year change [43]. - **Inventory Changes**: In August 2025, the lead battery finished product factory inventory decreased from 21.8 days to 20.5 days, and the dealer lead battery inventory days decreased from 44.6 days to 42 days [45]. - **Terminal Demand**: In the two - wheeled vehicle sector, although the decline in electric bicycle production directly affected new installation demand, the continuous growth of delivery scenarios such as express delivery and takeaway improved the new installation consumption of electric two - and three - wheeled vehicles. In the automotive sector, the contribution of lead demand was expected to maintain stable growth. Although new energy vehicles were replacing lead - acid starting batteries, the high stock of existing vehicles led to high replacement demand, and the starting battery start - up rate remained relatively high. In the base station sector, the increasing number of communication base stations and 5G base stations drove the steady increase in lead - acid battery demand [49][51][54]. 5. Supply - Demand Inventory - **Domestic Balance**: In August 2025, the domestic lead ingot supply - demand difference was a surplus of 16.9 thousand tons. From January to August, the domestic cumulative lead ingot supply - demand difference was a surplus of 55 thousand tons [63]. - **Overseas Balance**: In July 2025, the overseas refined lead supply - demand difference was a shortage of - 8 thousand tons. From January to July, the overseas cumulative refined lead supply - demand difference was a shortage of - 53.9 thousand tons [66]. 6. Price Outlook - **Domestic Structure**: The domestic social inventory decreased to 35.8 thousand tons. The SHFE lead ingot futures inventory was 30.1 thousand tons, the domestic primary basis was - 120 yuan/ton, and the continuous - first - continuous contract spread was - 15 yuan/ton [71]. - **Overseas Structure**: The LME lead ingot inventory was 236.1 thousand tons, and the LME lead ingot cancelled warrants were 49.6 thousand tons. The foreign cash - 3S contract basis was - 37.3 dollars/ton, and the 3 - 15 spread was - 74.2 dollars/ton [74]. - **Price Ratios and Profits**: After excluding exchange rates, the Shanghai - London ratio was 1.193, and the lead ingot import profit and loss was - 358.36 yuan/ton [77]. - **Position Analysis**: The top 20 net positions of Shanghai Lead turned slightly net short, the net long positions of LME Lead investment funds increased, and the net short positions of commercial enterprises increased. From a position perspective, the short - term guidance was bearish [80].

Core Insights - The average price of SMM1 lead ingots was 16,925 CNY/ton, while recycled refined lead averaged 16,850 CNY/ton, indicating a price differential of 75 CNY/ton for scrap lead-acid batteries priced at 9,975 CNY/ton [1] - On September 29, the lead futures market closed at 16,855 CNY/ton, with a decline of 1.38%, and trading volume reached 76,219 lots [2] - The LME reported a registered lead warehouse stock of 197,275 tons, with a decrease of 600 tons in canceled warrants, totaling 21,550 tons [2] Supply and Demand Analysis - The supply side is expected to maintain a tight balance in Q4, with some smelters in Hunan and Yunnan experiencing slight production declines due to insufficient raw material inventories [4] - The operating rate of recycled lead has been declining for six consecutive weeks, leading to weakened demand for scrap lead-acid batteries, which have seen a slight price stabilization after a drop [4] - The implementation of new national standards for electric bicycles in September has improved order conditions for some downstream companies, alongside stable demand in the energy storage battery market, suggesting a potential reduction in lead inventory [4] Transportation and Cost Factors - In Inner Mongolia, transportation vehicles are becoming tight due to the maturity of agricultural products, resulting in an increase in transportation costs by approximately 80 CNY/ton [3]