Group 1 - The article highlights the geopolitical dilemma faced by the EU as it attempts to navigate between the US and China, with the EU trying to establish a trade agreement with the US while simultaneously managing its relationship with China [1][2][4] - The EU has imposed trade barriers against Chinese products, citing "unfair competition," but these measures have led to retaliatory actions from China, including investigations into EU products such as pork and brandy [1][5] - The EU's economic dependence on China limits its ability to exert pressure, as highlighted by the fact that many European countries still rely heavily on Chinese industrial materials [8][9][11] Group 2 - The EU's recent measures to restrict Chinese participation in public procurement for medical devices are framed as necessary for "fair competition," but these actions have prompted China to respond with equivalent restrictions [5][7] - Despite the EU's criticisms of China's trade practices, the economic interdependence between the two regions constrains the EU's capacity to apply significant pressure on China [9][11] - The EU is also facing challenges from the US, with expected increases in export tariffs, which may compel the EU to adopt a tougher stance on China as part of negotiations with the US [7][8]

当地时间7月9日，美国总统特朗普在社交媒体平台"真实社交"上发布了致巴西有关加征关税的信函，表 示美国将自2025年8月1日起对所有巴西产品征收50%的关税。(央视新闻) ...

卢特尼克说，对铜进口的调查已经完成，「我们已经完成调查。我们已将报告交给总统。」他说， 川普将在稍后宣布铜关税并签署相关公告，而铜关税有可能在7月底或8月1日生效。 点这里加关注，锁定更多原创内容 如果您希望可以时常见面，欢迎标星收藏哦~ 来 源： 内 容 编译自 CNBC 。 美国商务部长卢特尼克表示，美国将在本月底完成对半导体和药品进口的调查，以判断对国安的影 响。这增加了宣布新关税的可能性。 卢特尼克8日在接受CNBC访问时表示：「在制药和半导体领域，这些调查将在月底完成」，「届 时总统将制定他的政策，而我将让他稍后去决定将怎么做」。他指的是在4月依据1962年「贸易扩 张法」第232条发动的调查。依据这条法律，当美国总统判定进口品可能损害国安时，他有权调整 进口品。 卢特尼克说，川普说过了，「如果没有在美国建厂，他们将面临高税率。但如果你正在美国建厂， 他或许会考虑让你有时间建。我认为他在内阁会议中提到这点。让你们有时间去盖，像是一年、一 年半、或许两年的时间兴建，之后关税会高得多。但这些细节将在月底出炉，而总统将敲定」。 川普同日稍早在内阁会议上表示，政府将宣布对药品、芯片和其他重要商品征收关税，同 ...

综合日媒9日报道，针对美国总统特朗普公布的将对来自日本的进口产品征收25%关税的信息，日本首 相石破茂表示，将全力维护国家利益，不会轻易妥协。据报道，当地时间9日，石破茂在佐贺市演讲 时，提及美国关税政策时表示，日本国内将团结一致维护国家利益，在不能让步的事情上不会让步，绝 对不会牺牲农业。(中国新闻网) ...

Group 1 - The recent tariff increase by the Trump administration, ranging from 25% to 40% on several countries, has exceeded market expectations and reflects a shift towards aggressive trade protectionism [3][4] - The imposition of tariffs on traditional allies like Japan and South Korea indicates a broader strategy beyond just targeting China, potentially reshaping regional economic dynamics [3][4] - The immediate market reaction includes a significant drop in U.S. stock indices, with the Dow Jones falling 422 points, highlighting investor concerns over future uncertainty and growth expectations [2][3] Group 2 - The tariff hikes are expected to increase corporate costs, compress profit margins, and restrict international trade activities, which could lead to a restructuring of global supply chains [3][6] - Emerging economies such as South Africa, South Korea, and Japan are experiencing currency depreciation, which may exacerbate capital outflow risks and increase import costs, leading to inflationary pressures [6][7] - The trade protectionism measures reflect an attempt by the U.S. to adjust its power within the global economic system, potentially prompting affected countries to seek alternative markets and strengthen regional economic alliances [7][9]

| 品种 | 点评 | 观点 | | --- | --- | --- | | 玉米 | 周二，玉米先跌后涨，9 月合约日内下跌至 2310 的低位，其后价格企稳反弹，期 | | | | 价以十字星收盘。玉米加权合约在连续两个月减仓调整之后，持仓恢复增加，主 | | | | 力合约破位下行，吸引投机资金关注。现货市场方面，受进口玉米拍卖影响，国 | | | | 内多地玉米现货报价承压下行。周末东北玉米深加工收购价格有所下调，因进口 | | | | 玉米拍卖市场情绪略受影响，贸易商售粮心态有所松动，后续继续关注进口玉米 | | | | 的拍卖和成交情况。周末华北地区玉米价格整体偏弱运行，进口玉米拍卖持续投 | | | | 放，约每周投放 50 万吨左右，对市场心态有明显影响，在贸易商都有利润的情 | 震荡偏弱 | | | 况下，出货积极性增加，市场供应量较大，深加工企业玉米价格压价收购，价格 | | | | 偏弱。周末销区市场玉米价格继续坚挺运行。周五第二次进口玉米进行拍卖，市 | | | | 场购销情绪减弱，基本溢价 20-40 元/吨。产区贸易商远期看涨，但短期出货变 | | | | 现意愿增强，销区玉米高价 ...

Core Viewpoint - The Trump administration plans to impose additional tariffs on imported copper and related products, with a 50% tariff on copper and a 200% tariff on pharmaceuticals and their raw materials, aiming to boost domestic production and reduce import dependency [1][2]. Group 1: Tariff Implementation - The additional tariffs on copper and pharmaceuticals are expected to be officially announced soon, with the copper tariffs likely to take effect between late July and early August [1][2]. - The tariffs will cover not only copper itself but also a wide range of copper-related products, including copper wire, scrap copper, and other derivatives [2]. Group 2: Market Impact - Following the announcement of the proposed copper tariffs, copper futures on the New York Commodity Exchange (COMEX) rose to $5.89 per pound, marking an increase of nearly 20% compared to levels before the tariff announcement [2]. Group 3: Domestic Production Goals - The Trump administration aims to increase domestic copper production by 70% by 2035, reducing import reliance from 45% to 30% [3]. - The administration is advancing the "Resolution Copper Mine" development plan in Arizona, which has faced opposition from local indigenous groups [3]. Group 4: Strategic Importance of Copper - Copper is considered a critical material for national security, ranking second in usage among various materials by the U.S. Department of Defense, and is essential for infrastructure and electric vehicles [2][3].

【基本面跟踪】 油脂基本面数据 | | | 单 位 | 收盘价 (日盘） | 涨跌幅 | 收盘价 （夜盘） | 涨跌幅 | | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | | | 棕榈油主力 | 元/吨 | 8,644 | 2.10% | 8,642 | -0.02% | | | 豆油主力 | 元/吨 | 7,946 | 0.66% | 7,916 | -0.38% | | | 菜油主力 | 元/吨 | 9,598 | 0.52% | 9,548 | -0.52% | | 期 货 | 马棕主力 | 林吉特/吨 | 4,149 | 1.94% | 4,174 | 0.63% | | | CBOT豆油主力 | 美分/磅 | 53.97 | 0.20% | | | | | | 单 位 | 昨日成交 | 成交变动 | 昨日持仓 | 持仓变动 | | | 棕榈油主力 | 手 | 726,022 | 280346 | 518,456 | 70,433 | | | 豆油主力 | 手 | 310,808 | 2,265 | 526,424 | 4,511 | | | 菜油主力 | 手 ...

2025年07月09日 国泰君安期货商品研究晨报-农产品 观点与策略 | 棕榈油：宏观情绪推涨，基本面高度有限 | 2 | | --- | --- | | 豆油：美豆天气炒作不足，缺乏驱动 | 2 | | 豆粕：天气良好、美豆收跌，连粕或偏弱震荡 | 4 | | 豆一：现货稳定，盘面震荡 | 4 | | 玉米：震荡调整 | 6 | | 白糖：巴西出口增加 | 8 | | 棉花：关注美国关税政策及影响 | 9 | | 鸡蛋：关注旺季现货兑现情况 | 11 | | 生猪：关注新一轮投机兑现情绪 | 12 | | 花生：下方有支撑 | 13 | 国 泰 君 安 期 货 研 究 所 请务必阅读正文之后的免责条款部分 1 期货研究 商 品 研 究 2025 年 7 月 9 日 棕榈油：宏观情绪推涨，基本面高度有限 豆油：美豆天气炒作不足，缺乏驱动 | | | 【基本面跟踪】 油脂基本面数据 | | | 单 位 | 收盘价 (日盘） | 涨跌幅 | 收盘价 （夜盘） | 涨跌幅 | | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | | | 棕榈油主力 | 元/吨 | 8,644 | ...

Economic Overview - Global economic growth momentum is weakening, influenced by trade frictions, monetary policy paths, and geopolitical factors, leading to increased volatility in economic and financial markets[1] - Geopolitical risks remain high, with ongoing conflicts such as the Russia-Ukraine war and tensions in the Middle East exacerbating global economic uncertainty[1] - Emerging markets are experiencing some relief in sovereign credit risk due to a global trend towards lower interest rates[1] Impact of Tariffs - Trump's tariff policy, implemented on April 2, is expected to worsen global trade imbalances and hinder economic growth, potentially harming the U.S. economy and increasing "stagflation" risks[2] - The tariffs are likely to raise inflation expectations, which may restrict the Federal Reserve's ability to lower interest rates in the short term[2] - The tariff impacts could lead to increased uncertainty in global trade and capital markets, posing downward risks to global sovereign credit levels[2] Sovereign Credit Rating Actions - Credit rating downgrades occurred for France, Germany, and Thailand due to political instability and economic challenges, with France's rating adjusted from AAg to AA-g[3][5] - Positive adjustments were made for Turkey, Serbia, Egypt, and Sri Lanka, reflecting improved economic conditions and investor confidence, with Turkey's rating upgraded from BB-g to BBg[3][5] - Belgium's credit outlook was revised to negative due to slowing economic growth and rising fiscal deficits, while the ratings for the UAE and the UK were maintained[3][5] Specific Country Insights - France faces increasing fiscal deficits and debt issues due to political discord, which could elevate borrowing costs[8] - Germany's economic outlook is dimmed by a slight recession influenced by the Russia-Ukraine conflict, alongside declining political stability affecting policy effectiveness[12] - Egypt's credit rating was upgraded due to significant foreign investment inflows and improved fiscal liquidity, stemming from the Ras El-Hekma agreement and IMF loans[19][20]