Core Viewpoint - The article discusses the recent developments regarding tariffs and trade negotiations involving the United States and other countries, particularly in the context of the BRICS nations and the ongoing trade talks with Japan and the European Union. Group 1: Tariff Developments - The Chinese government has reiterated its stance against trade wars and tariff battles, emphasizing that there are no winners in such conflicts and that protectionism is not a viable solution [3][4]. - U.S. President Trump has threatened to impose a 10% tariff on BRICS nations, which China views as an aggressive move that does not align with the principles of cooperation and mutual benefit [2][3]. - The U.S. is expected to announce new tariffs on certain countries, with a maximum rate potentially reaching 70% starting August 1 [4][7]. Group 2: Trade Negotiations - The U.S. has been engaged in trade negotiations with multiple countries, but progress has been slower than anticipated [5]. - U.S. Treasury Secretary Mnuchin indicated that the deadline for negotiations might be extended, suggesting that countries genuinely negotiating could see their deadlines pushed back [7][9]. - Japan's Prime Minister has stated that Japan will not easily compromise in trade talks with the U.S., highlighting the ongoing stalemate in negotiations [11]. Group 3: EU-U.S. Trade Relations - The article notes significant divisions within the EU regarding trade negotiations with the U.S., with some countries pushing for quick agreements while others express concerns about potential concessions [13][14]. - The EU's ability to present a unified front in trade discussions is crucial, as internal disagreements could lead to unfavorable outcomes for the bloc [14].

Report Summary 1. Investment Ratings No investment ratings for the industries are provided in the report. 2. Core Views - The overall market situation is influenced by overseas tariff risks and domestic policies. The equity market is expected to be bullish in the medium - term, and the bond market also shows strength. Different commodity futures have various trends based on their specific supply - demand and macro - economic factors [1][2][5]. 3. Summary by Categories Financial Futures and Options - **Stock Index Futures (IF, IH, IC, IM)** - **Intraday View**: Narrow - range fluctuation, with trading positions holding cash and waiting for opportunities [1]. - **Medium - term View**: Bullish [1]. - **Reference Strategy**: Exit the short position of the MO2507 - P - 5800 out - of - the - money put option opportunistically, and cautiously hold long positions in IM2507 [1]. - **Core Logic**: Overseas tariff risks are rising, and domestic policies are boosting the domestic demand and the innovation of enterprises. Technically, the market is in a bullish cycle, and risk appetite has increased [1][2]. - **Treasury Bond Futures (TS, TF, T, TL)** - **Intraday View**: Short - term bonds fluctuate in a narrow range, while long - term bonds are relatively stronger [3]. - **Medium - term View**: Bullish [3]. - **Reference Strategy**: Hold long positions in T2509 or TL2509 [5]. - **Core Logic**: The improvement of the long - term liability side of large banks and the expectation of policy easing support the bond market [5]. Commodity Futures and Options - **Metal and New Energy Materials - Copper** - **Intraday View**: The price range is 78800 - 80500 [6]. - **Medium - term View**: The price range is 60000 - 90000 [6]. - **Reference Strategy**: Adopt a weak - biased oscillatory trading strategy [6]. - **Core Logic**: The possible Fed rate cut, supply changes in different regions, weak demand, inventory changes, and the upcoming Sino - US tariff negotiation results affect the copper market [6][7]. - **Industrial Silicon** - **Intraday View**: Low - level operation, with a range of 7900 - 8200 [8]. - **Medium - term View**: Under pressure, with a range of 7000 - 8500 [8]. - **Reference Strategy**: Wait and see [8]. - **Core Logic**: Both supply and demand are decreasing, and the inventory is at a high level [8]. - **Polysilicon** - **Intraday View**: Rise and then fall, with a range of 35000 - 36000 [11]. - **Medium - term View**: Low - level operation, with a range of 28000 - 38000 [11]. - **Reference Strategy**: Wait and see [11]. - **Core Logic**: Supply and demand are both down, and the inventory is high, indicating an obvious supply surplus [11]. - **Lithium Carbonate** - **Intraday View**: Low - level operation, with a range of 63000 - 64000 [12]. - **Medium - term View**: The cost support weakens, and the price declines steadily, with a range of 56000 - 68000 [12]. - **Reference Strategy**: Short the futures at high prices and sell LC2508 - C - 83000 [12]. - **Core Logic**: The spot price is low, supply pressure is high, and the inventory is at a high level [12].

周一（7月7日）欧洲时间，白银期货价格下跌，最新沪银主力报8882元/千克，跌幅0.39%，今日开盘于 8919元/千克，最高上探至8953元/千克，最低触及8853元/千克。 贝森特说："进入最后阶段会有很多拥堵，作为贸易团队的一员，有特朗普总统站在我们这边的好处 是，他创造了最大的谈判筹码。" 特朗普上周五对记者说，最快周一可能会向十几个国家发送信件，关税税率从"60%或70%到10%或 20%"不等。他说，关税将于8月1日生效，同时再次谎称是外国支付了关税，而实际上是由美国进口商 支付的。 【技术面分析】 沪银在过去一周的表现符合预期，但随着非农数据的公布，沪银价格回落，目前有一定的利润空间。本 周，沪银的走势依旧保持震荡整理，投资者应关注关键支撑和阻力位。沪银的下方支撑位在8900和 8700，若价格跌破8900，则可能会打开更大的回调空间，目标可看向8700；若8700支撑有效，则可考虑 做多操作。整体而言，沪银短期内仍处于震荡整理之中，操作策略应以区间波动为主。 【要闻速递】 自从宣布全面征收所谓的对等关税以来，特朗普政府只与英国和越南签署了协议，并与亚洲大国达成了 一项有限的协议，两国暂时取消了 ...

据美国新闻网站阿克西奥斯报道，虽然贝森特坚称议程没有改变，但他的表态暗示特朗普政府正就谈 判设定新的最后期限。 美国所谓"对等关税"90天暂缓期将于7月9日结束。目前，美国加紧与多国进行贸易谈判，但进度显 著不及美方预期。 据新华社，美国总统特朗普当地时间6日在社交媒体发文说，美国政府将于当地时间7日中午12时起 公布与贸易伙伴的关税信函或关税协议。特朗普此前表示，拟于8月1日起对部分国家的商品实施最 高达70%的关税措施。 美国财政部长贝森特6日说，特朗普本周将向贸易伙伴发送信函，告知美方计划征收的关税税率。对 于在8月1日之前未能与美国达成贸易协议的国家，关税税率将恢复到4月宣布的"对等关税"水平。 美国媒体解读说，贝森特这番表态暗示美方默许7月9日的关税谈判最后期限延后数周。 贝森特当天接受美国有线电视新闻网采访时表示，对于那些在8月1日前未与美国达成贸易协议的国 家，关税税率将恢复到4月宣布的"对等关税"水平。当被问及8月1日是否为最新截止日期时，贝森 特拒绝正面回应，称"我不会泄露（谈判）策略，如果你想加快速度，那就行动吧"。 ...

Group 1 - The U.S. is set to finalize several trade agreements, with higher tariffs expected to be announced by July 9 and effective from August 1 for countries that do not reach an agreement [1][2] - Various U.S. associations, including the American Apparel and Footwear Association, have expressed concerns that the tariffs will significantly increase domestic manufacturing costs and weaken the competitiveness of U.S. exports due to retaliatory tariffs from other countries [2] - The EU, Japan, and India are all emphasizing the protection of their national interests during ongoing trade negotiations, with the EU seeking a principle agreement by July 9 and considering extending the tariff suspension period if necessary [2][3] Group 2 - The EU has indicated that it will take countermeasures to protect its economy if negotiations fail, with all possible responses being considered [3] - Japan's trade negotiations with the U.S. are stalled, primarily over issues related to the automotive and agricultural sectors, with Japan stressing the importance of investment over tariffs [3] - India's trade discussions with the U.S. also face challenges in the automotive, steel, and agricultural sectors, with Indian officials asserting that any agreement must prioritize national interests [3]

当地时间6日，日本首相石破茂表示，他不会在与美方的贸易谈判中"轻易妥协"。石破茂说，日本对美 国经济进行了大量投资，应该得到与其他国家不同的待遇，日本正在做好"应对各种情况的准备"。7月9 日是美国暂缓执行所谓"对等关税"的最后期限，目前日美贸易谈判仍陷于僵局。美国总统特朗普日前向 日本施压，称可能进一步提高针对日本的关税税率。(央视新闻) ...

Group 1 - Trump's administration has achieved several strategic goals in the political and economic fields, moving beyond mere rhetoric of "Make America Great Again" [1] - The U.S. has implemented a 20% comprehensive tariff on major trade partners, including China, Canada, and Mexico, referred to as the "fentanyl tariff" [3] - The U.S. has escalated its tariff policy to a global "reciprocal tariff" action, imposing additional tariffs ranging from 10% to 49% on major economies [3] Group 2 - Vietnam and Cambodia initially faced high tariff rates of 46% and 49%, respectively, but through negotiations, Vietnam's local product tariff was reduced to 20% [5] - The U.S. is employing a "war of attrition" strategy with difficult negotiating partners like Japan and the EU, extending the application period of the 10% base tariff [5] - For smaller economies, Trump plans to send tax bills directly, with rates ranging from 10% to 70%, reflecting a pragmatic "America First" approach [5] Group 3 - Trump has focused on the "Great America" Act, which includes tax cuts, increased fiscal spending, and adjustments to industry subsidies, marking it as a core pillar of his economic policy [7] - Despite strong opposition, including from former allies, Trump successfully pushed the act through Congress, demonstrating his commitment to core policies [7] Group 4 - Trump has faced significant resistance in monetary policy, particularly from Federal Reserve Chairman Jerome Powell, who has not complied with Trump's calls for interest rate cuts [9] - Recent OPEC+ decisions to increase oil production may alleviate inflationary pressures from tariffs, potentially influencing the Fed's interest rate policies [9][10] - The combination of tariff policies, the "Great America" Act, and the ongoing negotiation with the Fed indicates substantial progress in Trump's economic agenda [10] Group 5 - The execution efficiency and outcomes of these policies reflect Trump's governance capabilities, successfully turning challenging policy goals into reality [12] - In a polarized political environment, this results-oriented governance style may be key to advancing his policies [12]

Group 1 - The core viewpoint of the articles revolves around India's firm stance against the U.S. tariff policies, highlighting its decision to impose retaliatory tariffs on American goods amounting to $725 million, reflecting its belief in self-reliance and reduced dependency on the U.S. market [1][2][4] - India's exports to the U.S. account for only 18% of its total exports, indicating that it does not rely heavily on the American market, especially in comparison to its exports to China, which stand at 14.7% [2] - Modi's government is actively seeking to strengthen its position within BRICS and other international platforms, showcasing its commitment to multilateralism and regional cooperation, as evidenced by Modi's participation in the BRICS summit [4][5] Group 2 - The articles suggest that Modi's approach is influenced by the lack of concessions from the U.S. and the need to assert India's role on the global stage, particularly in light of the absence of key leaders from China and Russia at the BRICS summit [4][5] - India's recent actions, including the joint statement on IMF reform, signify its ambition to position itself as a representative of the Global South and to challenge the dominance of the U.S. dollar [5] - The ongoing tensions with the U.S. and the potential for closer ties with China and Russia indicate a strategic pivot for India, emphasizing its desire for an independent and multipolar foreign policy [7]

当投资者普遍押注关税不会升级时，摩根士丹利却在思考一个关键问题：如果7月9日的结果与预期不 符，市场将面临怎样的冲击？ 央视新闻指出，7月9日（本周三）是美国与各国谈判贸易协议的截止日期。据追风交易台消息，摩根士 丹利全球固定收益和主题研究主管Michael Zezas发布研报警示，尽管市场普遍预期美国关税政策不会进 一步升级，但7月9日关税暂停期到期这一关键节点仍存在多种可能性，投资者需要为不同情形做好准 备。 该行的基本预期是美国有效关税水平仅会适度上升，但会伴随一些新的波动，并分析了三种可能的情 形。 基本情形：延期策略 摩根士丹利认为最可能的情况是，白宫将以双边谈判取得了"进展"为由，延长对大多数主要贸易伙伴 的"对等关税"暂停期，同时宣布与某些贸易伙伴(包括越南)达成高层协议，并可能在未来某个日期对其 他国家提高关税税率。 "对等关税"暂停期结束，8月1日又要开始支付新关税？ 随着截止日期的临近，据环球时报5日报道，美国总统特朗普表示，美政府7月4日起将向尚未达成贸易 协议的国家发出新关税税率的通知，税率区间为10%至70%，并计划从8月1日起正式实施。这一税率上 限（70%）远高于其4月份宣布的5 ...

2025.07. 07 微信编辑 | 七三 推荐阅读 雷军回应友商"截胡"YU7 贝森特当天接受美国有线电视新闻网采访时表示，对于那些在8月1日前未与美国达成贸易协议 的国家，关税税率将恢复到4月宣布的"对等关税"水平。当被问及8月1日是否为最新截止日期 时，贝森特拒绝正面回应，称"我不会泄露（谈判）策略，如果你想加快速度，那就行动吧"。 据美国阿克西奥斯新闻网站报道，虽然贝森特坚称议程没有改变，但他的表态暗示特朗普政府 正就谈判设定新的最后期限。 美国所谓"对等关税"90天暂缓期将于7月9日结束。目前，美国加紧与多国进行贸易谈判，但进 度显著不及美方预期。 本文字数：397，阅读时长大约1分钟 据新华社，美国财政部长贝森特6日表示，总统特朗普本周将向贸易伙伴发送信函，告知美方计 划征收的关税税率。对于未能达成协议的国家，所谓的"对等关税"将于8月1日生效。美国媒体 解读说，贝森特这番表态暗示美方默许7月9日的关税谈判最后期限延后数周。 ...