Core Viewpoint - Chinese assets have collectively surged, driven by strong performances in the U.S. and Hong Kong markets, with significant inflows from foreign investors [2][3]. Group 1: Performance of Chinese Assets - After the U.S. market opened on September 17, the Nasdaq Golden Dragon China Index rose by 2.4%, and various ETFs focused on Chinese stocks saw increases of over 5% [3]. - Notable Chinese stocks such as Baidu experienced a surge of over 7%, with its H-shares rising more than 15% [3]. - The Hang Seng Tech Index increased by 4.22%, reaching its highest level since December 2021, while the Hang Seng Index rose by 1.78% [3]. Group 2: Market Dynamics - Goldman Sachs indicated that the recent surge in Hong Kong stocks was driven by foreign capital, with net purchases from southbound funds amounting to approximately 9.441 billion HKD [3]. - The overall U.S. market showed mixed results, with the Dow Jones up by 0.47% and the Nasdaq down by 0.35% [4]. Group 3: Investor Sentiment - A recent Bank of America survey revealed that 28% of global fund managers are bullish on stocks, the highest level since February [5]. - The survey indicated that nearly half of the respondents expect the Federal Reserve to cut rates at least four times in the next 12 months [5]. Group 4: Federal Reserve Outlook - The Federal Reserve is expected to announce a 25 basis point rate cut, with a 96% probability according to market tools [6]. - Goldman Sachs forecasts that the Fed will implement three consecutive rate cuts of 25 basis points in September, October, and December [7].

智通财经9月17日讯（编辑 赵昊）周三（9月17日）美股盘前，三大指数期货涨跌不一。 截至发稿，道琼斯指数期货涨0.17%，标普500指数期货涨0.02%，纳斯达克100指数期货跌0.01%。 个股方面，特斯拉、英伟达盘前跌超1%；与此同时，明星中概股整体走强，百度涨8.6%，阿里巴巴涨2.5%，拼多多、蔚来涨近3%。 前一交易日，美股三大股指在震荡交投中收低，投资者在美联储利率决议前保持谨慎。北京时间周四凌晨02:00，该行将公布利率决议；半小时后，鲍威尔 将出席记者会。 芝商所"美联储观察"工具显示，市场预计美联储本次降息25个基点的概率高达94%，另外的6%则是降息50个基点。前一天，美国财长贝森特就指出，25个 基点的降息已被市场消化。 Pimco前首席经济学家Paul McCulley表示，最有可能的结果是较为保守的降息25个基点，"因为我不知道当前情况下该如何解释降息50个基点，而且这不是 鲍威尔主席想要传达的信息。" 值得一提的是，美联储还会在公布决议时发布利率预测"点阵图"，给未来的利率行动提供指引。发稿前不久，白宫贸易顾问纳瓦罗说，当前利率至少比正常 水平高了100个基点。 正在交易的欧洲股 ...

格隆汇9月17日丨美国银行首席执行官莫伊尼汉表示，他短期内不会卸任。与此同时，该行正提拔高管 担任新职务，为他们积累更多经验——这一举措引发了外界对这位长期掌舵者继任问题的猜测。莫伊尼 汉是美国大型银行中任职时间最长的首席执行官之一。他于2010年上任，在2008年金融危机后助力美国 银行完成重建。15年后的今天，他仍在释放将继续留任的信号——就在上周五，他还表示希望在2030年 底前继续担任这一职务。莫伊尼汉今日表示："美联储必须根据通胀形势做出调整。他们已经降息100个 基点，并且可能继续降息，但必须密切关注通胀层面的风险。" 来源：格隆汇APP ...

自3月以来，加拿大央行一直将基准利率维持在2.75%不变，而近期一系列数据表明，重启降息周期的 理由正在增强。 凯投宏观北美副首席经济学家Stephen Brown表示，高失业率远超自然水平，这已成为加拿大央行9月降 息的主要依据。 道明银行经济学家Andrew Hencic则表示，为了支撑经济活动，加拿大央行在本周降息之后，年内还将 再度降息，基准利率水平将降至2.25%。 市场参与者对于加拿大央行的政策预期目前趋于一致，即倾向于鸽派立场。关注点将转向未来潜在的降 息时机，若央行在此次会议上展现出更明显的鸽派倾向，可能引发加元短期波动。 （文章来源：新华财经） 虽然受到汽油价格同比降幅收窄的影响，加拿大8月CPI年率升至1.9%，但低于2.0%的市场预期，且连 续第五个月低于央行2%的中期目标。加拿大央行密切关注的截尾均值核心CPI在8月降至3.0%，与市场 预期一致。总体通胀数据低于预期，核心通胀指标持续缓和，为央行货币政策调整提供空间。 通胀受控后，加拿大央行得以将关注点转向经济增长。加拿大统计局此前公布的数据显示，第二季度加 拿大GDP按年率计算下降1.6%，这是自新冠疫情以来的最大跌幅，也是近两年来 ...

中新社雅加达9月17日电 (记者 李志全)印度尼西亚央行17日宣布，将基准利率下调25个基点至4.75%。 这是该行2025年以来第五次降息，出乎市场预料。 作为东南亚最大经济体，印尼今年以来已累计下调基准利率125个基点，而此次降息距上次调整尚不足 一个月。根据印尼央行理事会决议，存款利率同步由4.25%下调至3.75%，贷款利率由5.75%降至 5.50%。 印尼央行行长佩里·瓦吉约在当日新闻发布会上宣布这一消息。他表示，此举符合央行对2025年和2026 年通胀保持在2.5%±1%区间的预期，有助于在通胀温和、印尼盾稳定的背景下提振经济增长。 美联储将于当地时间17日(印尼时间18日)公布最新利率决议。印尼央行预计，美联储降息概率超过 90%。佩里表示，这一强烈预期也是印尼央行决定下调基准利率25个基点的重要考量因素之一。 今年以来，印尼央行已于1月、5月、7月和8月四度下调基准利率，每次幅度均为25个基点。在此番第五 次降息后，印尼央行仍表示，未来会保留进一步降息的空间。 佩里指出，此次降息将配合充足的流动性和宽松的宏观审慎政策，推动信贷流向实体经济。他表示，印 尼央行预计，今年经济增速将维持在4.6 ...

1.降息25个基点还是50个基点？根据芝商所的美联储观察工具显示，美联储今晚降息25个基点的可能性约为96.0%，降息50个基点的可能性为4%。所以25个 基点只预期之内，50个基点是超预期。 2.年内究竟会降息几次？除了利率变化外，市场的焦点无疑在于，美联储点阵图预测中，对年内两次的降息预测是否能变为三次，这将与最新利率市场的定 价更为贴合。换言之，若点阵图对年内降息的预期次数靠拢于三次，则此次决议可能会将被业内解读为鸽派；而若维持在两次，则只能算得上是一次鹰派降 息，美银预测点阵图将显示年内降息两次。 对于A股来说，如果两项中有超预期的表现，有望支撑指数冲击3900点关口。 从今天市场来看，指数虽然全线翻红，但赚钱效应其实没有昨天强，主要还是权重的带动，今天宁德继续大涨7%，创业板剔除宁德基本也是没咋涨，主板 的大金融上午收盘前带着指数拉了一波，但是量能没有配合放大，下午回落，指数在3900点下方已经震荡了18个交易日，本周应该要变盘了，毕竟924快一 周年了，去年的牛市的起点，很多人憧憬大金融再来一波是有些道理的。 今天指数的反弹虽然突破了20均线的压力，早盘有一定加仓机会，但整体盘中的反弹力度并不强， ...

Market Movements - US stock index futures showed mixed results with Dow futures up by 0.07% while S&P 500 and Nasdaq futures down by 0.04% and 0.07% respectively [1] - European indices displayed slight movements with Germany's DAX up by 0.04%, UK's FTSE 100 up by 0.23%, while France's CAC40 down by 0.24% and Europe's Stoxx 50 down by 0.10% [2][3] - WTI crude oil prices fell by 0.64% to $64.11 per barrel, and Brent crude oil prices decreased by 0.60% to $68.06 per barrel [3][4] Federal Reserve and Economic Outlook - The focus has shifted from inflation to the labor market, with expectations of a rate cut by the Federal Reserve to support a weakening US labor market [5] - Market participants are betting on a 50 basis point rate cut, with some traders anticipating a total of 75 basis points in cuts over the remaining FOMC meetings this year [5] - Morgan Stanley's analysis indicates that when the S&P 500 is within 1% of its historical high and the Fed cuts rates, the index averages a 15% increase over the following year [6] Commodity Insights - Gold prices surged past $3,700 per ounce, driven by expectations of significant rate cuts from the Federal Reserve, with forecasts suggesting prices could reach $5,000 if certain market conditions are met [6] - A trader has made a substantial bet that Brent crude oil prices will fall below $50 per barrel by year-end, citing expected oversupply in the market despite geopolitical risks [7] Company News - Tesla reached a confidential settlement regarding a lawsuit related to a fatal accident involving its Autopilot system, agreeing to pay $243 million [8][9] - Nvidia is collaborating with OpenAI and other tech giants to invest £11 billion in the UK to develop AI infrastructure [9] - Eli Lilly's oral weight loss drug showed a significant 11.2% weight reduction in clinical trials, potentially reshaping obesity treatment accessibility [10] - AstraZeneca's asthma drug Fasenra failed to meet primary endpoints in a study for COPD patients, posing a setback for the company [10] - GlaxoSmithKline announced a commitment to invest $30 billion in the US over the next five years, coinciding with President Trump's visit to the UK [11] - New Fortress Energy secured a $4 billion LNG supply agreement with Puerto Rico, significantly boosting its stock price [11] Economic Data and Events - Upcoming economic data includes US building permits and housing starts for August, as well as the Federal Reserve's interest rate decision and economic forecast [12]

Group 1 - Wall Street traders are almost certain that the Federal Reserve will announce a 25 basis point rate cut, with expectations that Chairman Powell will signal further cuts to support a weak labor market [1][3] - The S&P 500 index has seen a significant increase in market capitalization, rising by $14 trillion since early April, and is now just 0.1% away from its historical record [3][4] - Historical data supports the bullish sentiment in the stock market, as the S&P 500 index has historically risen after the Fed cuts rates when it is within 1% of its all-time high, with an average return of nearly 15% [4] Group 2 - The implied volatility of the S&P 500 index has decreased, indicating market confidence in the continuation of the index's upward trend, but unexpected factors could still lead to market volatility [5][6] - Analysts predict that if Powell signals a hawkish stance regarding inflation, it could lead to panic in the markets, while a dovish signal would likely result in a positive response from the stock market [5][6] - The most likely outcome is a 25 basis point rate cut, with potential market reactions ranging from a flat close to a 1% increase, depending on Powell's signals regarding future rate cuts [6]

Market Overview - Dow futures fell by 0.06%, S&P 500 futures dropped by 0.14%, and Nasdaq futures decreased by 0.17% [1] Chinese Stocks - Chinese stocks saw a pre-market rally, with Alibaba up by 2.63%, Pinduoduo up by 2.29%, NetEase up by 1.00%, Ctrip up by 1.78%, JD.com up by 1.50%, and Baidu up by 9.19% [2] Company Ratings and Forecasts - Morgan Stanley reaffirmed a "buy" rating for ASML, listing it as a preferred stock in the European tech sector with a target price of €822, indicating that the company's worst phase may be over [2] - Stifel downgraded Accenture's target price from $355 to $315 while maintaining a "buy" rating [4] Energy Sector - New Fortress Energy surged over 55% in pre-market trading after securing a $4 billion liquefied natural gas supply agreement with Puerto Rico [2] Technology Developments - Reports suggest that Tesla may collaborate with Intel on custom chip development following a previous agreement with Samsung for custom AI chips [2] Pharmaceutical Investments - GlaxoSmithKline announced plans to invest $30 billion in the U.S. over the next five years for R&D and supply chain infrastructure, coinciding with potential import tariffs on the pharmaceutical industry [3] Commodity Prices - Gold futures briefly fell below $3,700, with a daily decline of 0.5% [5] Federal Reserve Expectations - The market anticipates a 96% probability of a 25 basis point rate cut by the Federal Reserve, with a 4% chance of a 50 basis point cut [6] - Recent disappointing economic data has heightened concerns about a slowdown in the U.S. labor market, which could impact consumer spending and economic growth [8]

白宫贸易顾问纳瓦罗：美联储今天应降息50个基点，下次会议再降50个基点。 ...