沪铝早报- 交易咨询业务资格：证监许可【2012】1091号 大越期货投资咨询部 ：祝森林 从业资格证号：F3023048 投资咨询证号：Z0013626 联系方式：0575-85226759 重要提示：本报告非期货交易咨询业务项下服务，其中的观点和信息仅作参考之用，不构成对任何人的投资建议。 我司不会因为关注、收到或阅读本报告内容而视相关人员为客户；市场有风险，投资需谨慎。 每日观点 铝: 1、基本面：碳中和控制产能扩张，下游需求不强劲，房地产延续疲软，宏观短期情绪多变；中性。 2、基差：现货20710，基差200，升水期货，偏多。 3、库存：上期所铝库存较上周增5625吨至108822吨；中性。 4、盘面：收盘价收于20均线上，20均线向上运行；偏多。 5、主力持仓：主力净持仓多，多减；偏多。 6、预期：碳中和催发铝行业变革，长期利多铝价，多空交织，铝价震荡运行。 近期利多利空分析 利多： 利空： 逻辑： 降息和需求疲软博弈 1、碳中和控制产能扩张。 2、俄乌地缘政治扰动，影响俄铝供应。 3、降息 1、全球经济并不乐观，高铝价会压制下游消费。 2、铝材出口退税取消 每日汇总 | 现货 昨日现货 | 地方 ...

Core Viewpoint - The precious metals market is experiencing intensified bullish and bearish forces due to ongoing global trade tensions and uncertainties surrounding the Federal Reserve's monetary policy [1][2][3]. Group 1: Global Trade Tensions - The U.S. has increased tariff demands on the EU, prompting the EU to prepare for a third round of countermeasures [1]. - Thailand has introduced a strategy to exempt 90% of U.S. goods from tariffs, while Brazil's President Lula stated he would not yield to U.S. tariff pressures [1]. Group 2: Federal Reserve Monetary Policy - Federal Reserve officials have differing views on interest rate cuts, with some advocating for a 25 basis point cut in July, while others believe a short-term cut is challenging [1][2]. - Economic data shows a rise in U.S. retail sales by 0.6% in June, which diminishes the urgency for rate cuts [1]. Group 3: Inflation and Economic Indicators - The U.S. government's "Big and Beautiful" bill is projected to increase the fiscal deficit by $2.8 trillion over the next decade, raising the debt-to-GDP ratio above 124% [2]. - The core CPI for June rose to 2.9% year-on-year, while the overall CPI reached 2.7%, indicating persistent inflation that may suppress rate cut expectations [2]. Group 4: Precious Metals Market Dynamics - Silver prices have shown stronger upward momentum compared to gold, with New York silver prices surpassing $39.5 per ounce, marking a historical high [3]. - Industrial demand, particularly from the photovoltaic sector, is expected to support silver prices, with a projected increase in silver demand of approximately 2,000 tons per year due to expanding solar installations [3]. Group 5: Market Outlook - The liquidity tightening has provided upward momentum for silver prices, with ETF holdings reaching a historical high of 1.13 billion ounces [4]. - Short-term precious metal prices are expected to remain strong, with key support levels for gold at $3,300 per ounce and for silver at $37 per ounce [4]. - Long-term trends indicate that the acceleration of de-dollarization and central bank gold purchases will systematically elevate gold price levels [4].

尽管面临美国总统特朗普关税政策带来的经济风险，欧洲央行仍可能在本周选择按兵不动，将潜在的降 息举措留待日后。 智通财经APP获悉，在周四(即为期七周的夏季休会期前的最后一次决策会议)上，政策制定者们很可能 维持利率在2%不变，将对特朗普30%威胁性关税的回应推迟到政策落地且影响可评估之时。 鉴于多数官员即将开启长假，重申通胀已达目标水平，并将经济前景的研判推迟至9月10-11日会议前发 布新季度预测时，这似乎成为了稳妥之选。 但决策者们心知肚明：危机正在暗涌。除关税隐忧外，欧元走强正在压制物价前景，出口商恐将面临更 大压力。与此同时，法国因膨胀的公共财政可能再度引爆政治危机。 在此背景下，即便欧洲央行管理委员会仍坚持"逐次会议决策"的既定方针，其内部或已悄然形成共识： 9月降息概率正在上升。摩根士丹利经济学家在题为《Ready for the Beach》的预测中指出，行长拉加德 在周四的新闻发布会开场声明中，很可能会重申经济增长风险"倾向下行"。 Bloomberg Economics欧元区高级经济学家David Powell表示："我们预计管理委员会在7月24日会议后的 措辞将与6月类似，为未来进一步降息 ...

智通财经APP注意到，标普500指数与纳斯达克综合指数双双徘徊在历史高位附近，尽管关税升级和货币政策辩论愈演愈烈，市场依然岿然不动。上周纳斯 达克领涨1.6%，标普500攀升0.7%，道琼斯工业平均指数则基本持平。 未来一周，112家标普500成分股将公布季报，市场焦点集中在Alphabet(GOOGL.US)、特斯拉(TSLA.US)和波雷墨西哥烧烤(CMG.US)等科技巨头。 与此同时，经济数据方面则将迎来制造业和服务业活动指标，而美联储已进入7月29-30日政策会议前的静默期。 利率博弈白热化 美联储理事沃勒周四在纽约发表讲话时明确呼吁7月降息，称联邦基金利率较合理水平高出逾1个百分点。"通胀已接近目标且上行风险有限，我们不应等到 劳动力市场恶化才采取行动。" 但市场对降息的预期持续降温——CME FedWatch工具显示，7月降息概率已从一个月前的13%降至5%。 花旗首席经济学家霍伦霍斯特认为，随着就业市场进一步松绑且关税未引发广泛通胀，美联储或在9月达成降息共识。 财报季成绩单 二季度财报季由大型银行超预期业绩拉开序幕，流媒体巨头奈飞随后亦交出亮眼成绩单，均显示美国消费韧性十足。 FactSet数 ...

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Report Industry Investment Rating - Not provided in the content Core Viewpoints of the Report - Tariffs' impact on US inflation has partially emerged, with varying effects on different commodities, and further inflation effects will depend on the domestic production process [3][12] - The US still needs restrictive monetary policy to curb inflation from the demand side, and the relatively normal wage growth helps suppress inflation [3][15] - Replacing the Fed Chair alone may not change the policy direction and could damage monetary policy credibility. The Fed's rate - cut rhythm depends on tariffs' impact on inflation, and currently, a rate cut restart in October is expected [3][16] - If the Fed "changes leadership" soon, it may benefit the precious metals market and steepen the US Treasury yield curve [3][16] Summary by Relevant Catalogs High - frequency Data Panoramic Scan - Tariffs' impact on US inflation is partially reflected in terminal goods. Different products are affected differently, and the impact on inflation will further manifest with the domestic production process [3][12] - The US needs restrictive monetary policy to control inflation from the demand side. In June, the core commodity CPI expanded, and retail data showed resilience [3][15] - Replacing the Fed Chair may not change the overall FOMC attitude. The probability of Powell being replaced soon is low, and the Fed's rate - cut decision depends on tariff - inflation effects [3][16] - A list of high - frequency data's weekly环比 changes is provided, including data on food, other consumer goods, energy, metals, real estate, and shipping [19] High - frequency Data and Important Macroeconomic Indicators' Trend Comparison - Multiple charts show the comparison between high - frequency data and important macro - indicators such as PPI, CPI, and export amounts [24][26][29] Important High - frequency Indicators in the US and Europe - Charts display US weekly economic indicators, employment data, sales data, financial conditions, and the implied interest - rate adjustment prospects of the Fed and ECB [84][86][91] Seasonal Trends of High - frequency Data - Charts present the seasonal trends of various high - frequency data, including production data, price indices, and real - estate - related data [95][99][109] High - frequency Traffic Data in Beijing, Shanghai, Guangzhou, and Shenzhen - Charts show the year - on - year changes in subway passenger volume in these four cities [152][154]

Group 1 - The stock indices collectively rose this week, with the Shanghai Composite Index closing at 3534.48 points, up 0.69%, and the Shenzhen Component Index at 10913.84 points, up 2.04% [2][4] - Approximately 100 billion yuan was net withdrawn from stock ETFs and cross-border ETFs in the week, with significant outflows from major ETFs like the CSI 300 ETF [4][5] - The technology sector, particularly the Sci-Tech Chip ETF, saw a net inflow of over 1 billion yuan, while AI and healthcare-related ETFs experienced significant outflows [5][7] Group 2 - The total trading volume for the Shanghai and Shenzhen stock markets reached 76.3 trillion yuan this week, with the Shanghai market accounting for 31 trillion yuan and the Shenzhen market 45.3 trillion yuan [2] - The top-performing ETFs included the Sci-Tech Chip ETF, Securities ETF, and Semiconductor ETF, which saw net inflows of 16.93 billion yuan, 16.15 billion yuan, and 14.44 billion yuan, respectively [5][6] - The Sci-Tech Chip ETF has experienced a continuous inflow of funds over the past five months, with a total increase of approximately 900 million shares and net inflows exceeding 13 billion yuan [8][10] Group 3 - 23 industry-themed ETFs saw net outflows exceeding 1 billion yuan, with the AI ETF, healthcare ETF, and AI AI ETF experiencing the largest reductions in shares and net outflows of 12.98 billion yuan, 6.75 billion yuan, and 6.37 billion yuan, respectively [7][8] - The global semiconductor market is projected to reach a size of 700.87 billion USD by 2025, driven by logic and memory chips, with significant growth expected in AI applications [10]

特朗普反复呼吁降息，黄金会否借此再迎新高？下周一需关注这一关键阻力！V助理团实时分析市场走 势，点击获取当天智囊团私人服务，领取黄金分析>> 相关链接 ...

美联储古尔斯比：如果不确定性消除，降息是有可能实现的。 ...

墨西哥总统辛鲍姆：近期通胀的上升并非由于降息所致。 ...