1. Report Industry Investment Ratings No relevant content provided. 2. Core Views of the Report - The overall market is influenced by various factors including policy, economic data, and international events. Different sectors show different trends and investment opportunities, and investors are advised to pay attention to specific events and data changes in each sector [1][2][3]. 3. Summary by Directory 3.1 Financial News and Reviews 3.1.1 Macro Strategy (Gold) - Gold prices fluctuated and closed higher, and silver rose sharply above the $60 mark, mainly boosted by the Fed's interest - rate cut expectations. However, the precious metals have fully priced in the rate cuts, so over - chasing the rise is not recommended [1][13]. - Investment advice: Wait for the Fed's interest - rate meeting to land. Gold will show a volatile trend, and silver may face a risk of high - level decline, with increased market volatility [13]. 3.1.2 Macro Strategy (Foreign Exchange Futures - US Dollar Index) - Hasset's statement that the Fed has a large space for interest - rate cuts implies an unexpected easing, and the US dollar index is expected to weaken [16][17]. - Investment advice: The US dollar will weaken in a volatile manner [18]. 3.1.3 Macro Strategy (US Stock Index Futures) - The number of job openings reached a five - month high, but the employment market still shows a weakening trend, and the US economy continues to face downward pressure. The market has fully priced in the December rate cut, and the market has become cautious before the interest - rate meeting [20]. - Investment advice: The three major stock indexes will fluctuate at high levels. Pay attention to the callback risk after the short - term profit - taking after the interest - rate meeting [21]. 3.1.4 Macro Strategy (Stock Index Futures) - The A - share market has corrected, mainly affected by policies. The Political Bureau meeting emphasizes cross - cycle adjustment, and the stock market expectations have been revised down. The more detailed deployment of the Central Economic Work Conference is worth attention [22][24]. - Investment advice: Allocate long positions in each stock index evenly [24]. 3.1.5 Macro Strategy (Treasury Bond Futures) - The market sentiment has improved, and treasury bond futures fluctuated and rose. The bond market is entering a mild recovery. It is recommended to pay attention to the opportunity of going long on dips [25]. - Investment advice: Pay attention to the strategy of going long on dips [26]. 3.2 Commodity News and Reviews 3.2.1 Black Metals (Rebar/Hot - Rolled Coil) - Steel prices continued to fluctuate and decline. The market is weak due to the lack of obvious policy increments in the Political Bureau meeting and the weakening of cost support from the decline of coking coal and coke prices. Short - term steel prices still have the risk of decline [27]. - Investment advice: Short - term steel prices will fluctuate and decline. Adopt an overall volatile thinking [28]. 3.2.2 Agricultural Products (Soybean Oil/Rapeseed Oil/Palm Oil) - The palm oil production in Malaysia from December 1 - 5 increased, but the data cannot represent the overall December production. The market is waiting for the MPOB report. The supply pressure of palm oil is expected to gradually ease in December [29]. - Investment advice: Pay attention to the MPOB November report. After the report is released, pay attention to the opportunity of going long on the 05 contract on dips [29]. 3.2.3 Agricultural Products (Hogs) - The near - month main contract of hogs rose rapidly and showed a high - level shock. However, the short - term supply pressure has not been substantially alleviated, and there is still a risk of price decline [31]. - Investment advice: Consider lightly shorting the near - month contract; treat the far - month contract with a short - term range thinking and control position risks [31]. 3.2.4 Agricultural Products (Corn Starch) - Corn starch prices are stable. Downstream demand is mainly for rigid needs. The short - term inventory pressure of starch remains acceptable [32][34]. - Investment advice: Maintain range operation for the rice - flour price difference [35]. 3.2.5 Agricultural Products (Corn) - After the rumor of the reserve auction, the market sentiment cooled down, and the futures price continued to decline. The impact of the reserve auction is expected to be limited [35]. - Investment advice: The decline of spot and 01 contracts is expected to be limited, while 03 and 05 contracts may be weaker. Pay attention to policy regulation and expected differences [36]. 3.2.6 Black Metals (Steam Coal) - The price of steam coal in Beigang is weak. The demand for power plant stockpiling has weakened, and the coal price has fallen rapidly with the accumulation of inventory. If it is a warm winter, the coal price pressure may last until January next year [37]. - Investment advice: If it is a warm winter, the coal price pressure may last until January next year. Pay attention to daily consumption and port inventory [38]. 3.2.7 Black Metals (Iron Ore) - Iron ore prices weakened with the overall black fundamentals. The port inventory is rising, and the iron - making molten iron output is expected to decline. The overall ore price is expected to decline slightly [39]. - Investment advice: The iron - making molten iron output is expected to fall to around 2.28 million tons from the end of December to early January. The overall ore price is expected to decline slightly [40]. 3.2.8 Non - ferrous Metals (Lead) - LME and SHFE lead prices fluctuated and declined. There is still a risk of delivery. The demand side is strong, and the fundamentals of lead remain strong. Observe the volume of delivery [41]. - Investment advice: Unilaterally, stop profit for short - term long positions and observe the delivery volume; for arbitrage, wait and see [41]. 3.2.9 Non - ferrous Metals (Zinc) - LME zinc prices fluctuated and corrected. The social inventory of zinc ingots decreased, and the supply decreased significantly. The demand for zinc may increase marginally. High - level partial profit - taking is recommended for long positions [42]. - Investment advice: Unilaterally, partially stop profit for long positions to avoid macro - level fluctuations; for arbitrage, hold the long - short spread position and wait and see for the internal - external spread [42]. 3.2.10 Non - ferrous Metals (Polysilicon) - A polysilicon platform company was registered. The fundamentals of polysilicon are not optimistic, but the spot price may be difficult to fall further. Pay attention to the price adjustment [43][44][46]. - Investment advice: The spot price may be difficult to fall. Pay attention to the opportunity of going long on dips in the futures market after the discount to the spot price, and consider selling out - of - the - money put options. Observe the absolute price of the 01 contract for arbitrage [46]. 3.2.11 Non - ferrous Metals (Industrial Silicon) - The fundamentals of industrial silicon are not optimistic. There is a short - term buying support, but there is a lack of upward drive. Pay attention to the opportunity of shorting on rebounds [48]. - Investment advice: The fundamentals are worse than expected. Pay attention to the opportunity of shorting on rebounds [48]. 3.2.12 Non - ferrous Metals (Nickel) - LME and SHFE nickel inventories decreased. Pay attention to the Fed's and the Bank of Japan's interest - rate decisions. The price of nickel iron is expected to rise slightly, and the short - term bottom of the pure nickel price has been reached. [49][50] - Investment advice: Unilaterally, consider lightly going long on dips. Pay attention to the change of the Indonesian nickel ore price and the RKAB approval limit [50]. 3.2.13 Non - ferrous Metals (Copper) - The global key mineral competition will reshape the 2026 market pattern. The short - term macro - level risk aversion sentiment suppresses copper prices, but the fundamentals provide support. The copper price is expected to be volatile in the short term [51][53]. - Investment advice: Unilaterally, wait patiently for the opportunity to go long on dips; for arbitrage, wait and see [55]. 3.2.14 Non - ferrous Metals (Lithium Carbonate) - Liontown signed a supply agreement with Tianhua New Energy. The current supply - side impact is controllable, but future supply - side disturbances should be vigilant. The real - side situation may weaken in the short term [56][57]. - Investment advice: Lightly short on highs in the short term, and consider going long on dips after the risk of the off - season decline is released [58]. 3.2.15 Non - ferrous Metals (Tin) - The supply of overseas tin ore is unstable, and the demand is weak. The tin price is expected to fluctuate at a high level in the short term, and be cautious about the risk of high - level decline [61]. - Investment advice: Pay attention to the opportunity of buying on dips, but do not chase the rise. Be cautious about the price decline caused by the easing of geopolitical unrest or capital outflows [62]. 3.2.16 Energy Chemicals (Crude Oil) - The EIA slightly raised the forecast of US crude oil production this year and lowered the forecast for next year. Oil prices are in a weak and volatile state [63][64]. - Investment advice: Maintain a volatile trend in the short term [65]. 3.2.17 Energy Chemicals (Carbon Emissions) - The CEA price is in a short - term shock. The impact of the carry - over policy may be more emotional than substantial. Enterprises in need can buy on dips [66][67]. - Investment advice: The CEA price will fluctuate in the short term [68]. 3.2.18 Energy Chemicals (PVC) - The PVC price is in a low - level shock. The supply is high, the demand is weak, and the coal price decline also drags down the PVC price. The short - term supply pressure is difficult to relieve [69][70]. - Investment advice: The PVC price will maintain a low - level shock pattern. Chasing short is not cost - effective [70]. 3.2.19 Energy Chemicals (Caustic Soda) - The price of caustic soda in Shandong is partially declining. The supply is high, the demand is not significantly improved, and the overall supply - demand is still loose. The short - term price may continue to be weak [71][72]. - Investment advice: The short - term price may continue to be weak. Pay attention to whether the profit compression can lead to supply reduction [72]. 3.2.20 Shipping Index (Container Freight Rates) - The tender of the largest port in Brazil is unfavorable to Maersk and MSC. The demand has improved in the peak season, but the freight rate increase may be weak. The short - term price may decline in a volatile manner [73][74]. - Investment advice: Treat the market with a weak - volatile thinking in the short term and wait and see [74].

Group 1 - The core focus of the market is not just on the likelihood of a rate cut, but also on the implications of the Federal Reserve's balance sheet and the potential appointment of Kevin Hassett as the new Fed Chair [2][3] - The probability of a 25 basis point rate cut in December has surged to 88.4%, up from below 67% a month ago, indicating strong market confidence in a "Christmas rate cut" [4] - Economic signals supporting the rate cut include moderate inflation, softening labor market data, and a consensus among key economic advisors for a 25 basis point cut [6] Group 2 - The most significant catalyst for the stock market may not be the rate cut itself, but rather any indications from the Fed regarding its $6.5 trillion balance sheet, with potential asset purchases seen as a means to inject liquidity [8] - Predictions for asset purchases vary, with Bank of America forecasting $45 billion monthly purchases starting in January, while Vanguard anticipates a more moderate approach of $15 to $20 billion per month [8] Group 3 - The potential appointment of Kevin Hassett as Fed Chair has raised concerns in the bond market, as he advocates for aggressive rate cuts, leading to increased bond yields and inflation risks [9][10] - Despite concerns, some analysts argue that Hassett's influence may be limited within the FOMC, as he would only hold one vote among twelve [11] - Nonetheless, his potential appointment signals a shift towards a more accommodative monetary policy and earlier expansion of the Fed's balance sheet [12]

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特朗普突然释放重磅信号。 | $300.51 -14.70 -4.66% | | --- | | 318.80 | 今开:314.95 | 成交量：1790.52万股 | 换手:0.66% | | --- | --- | --- | --- | | 300.02 | 昨收:315.21 | 成交额：54.65亿 | 振幅:5.96% | | 高: 322.25 | 量比： 2.26 | 市盈率(TTM)： 14.10 | 市净率： 2.27 | | 任: 202.16 | 委比： -66.67% | 市盈率(静)：13.99 | 市销率:3.09 | | 益: 21.32 | 股息(TTM)：5.63 | 包手股数:1 | 总市值:8180.67 | | 资产： 124.96 | 股息率(TTM)：1.78% | 最小价差：0.01 | 总股本： 27.22亿 | | 设: -- | Beta: -- | 空头回补天数： -- | 货币单位：USD | 特朗普最新发声 当地时间12月9日，美国政治新闻网站Politico报道，特朗普明确表示，支持大幅降息将成为他挑选下一任美联储主席的决定性因素。 在最新的采访 ...

尽管市场普遍预计美联储将在周三降息，但投资者更担心的是会后声明和未来指引是否会偏向鹰派。市场整体处于一种等待和观望状态，股债价格均窄幅 波动。 截至当地时间12月9日，美股三大指数收盘涨跌不一，道指跌0.37%，纳指涨0.13%，标普500指数跌0.09%。 谷歌、博通、特斯拉涨超1%，Meta跌超1%。贵金属、加密货币板块涨幅居前，泛美白银涨超11%，Hut 8、金田涨超4%，Strategy涨超2%。生物技术、减 肥药、多元化银行板块走低，硕迪生物、摩根大通跌超4%，安进跌超2%，礼来、辉瑞跌超1%。 摩根大通明年成本支出超预期，警告当前的消费者环境"略显脆弱"。 纳斯达克中国金龙指数收跌1.37%，热门中概股多数下跌，百度跌超4%，小鹏汽车、理想汽车跌超3%，哔哩哔哩跌超2%，蔚来、阿里巴巴跌超1%。 WTI原油期货收跌1.07%，报58.25美元/桶。布伦特原油期货收跌0.88%，报61.94美元/桶。 EIA短期能源展望报告预计2025年布伦特原油价格为68.91美元/桶，此前预计为68.76美元/桶；预计2026年为55.08美元/桶，此前预计为54.92美元/桶。预计 2025年WTI原油价格为 ...

尽管市场普遍预计美联储将在周三降息，但投资者更担心的是会后声明和未来指引是否会偏向鹰派。市场整体处于一种等待和观望状态，股债价格均窄幅 波动。 截至当地时间12月9日，美股三大指数收盘涨跌不一，道指跌0.37%，纳指涨0.13%，标普500指数跌0.09%。 谷歌、博通、特斯拉涨超1%，Meta跌超1%。贵金属、加密货币板块涨幅居前，泛美白银涨超11%，Hut 8、金田涨超4%，Strategy涨超2%。生物技术、减 肥药、多元化银行板块走低，硕迪生物、摩根大通跌超4%，安进跌超2%，礼来、辉瑞跌超1%。 摩根大通明年成本支出超预期，警告当前的消费者环境"略显脆弱"。 纳斯达克中国金龙指数收跌1.37%，热门中概股多数下跌，百度跌超4%，小鹏汽车、理想汽车跌超3%，哔哩哔哩跌超2%，蔚来、阿里巴巴跌超1%。 WTI原油期货收跌1.07%，报58.25美元/桶。布伦特原油期货收跌0.88%，报61.94美元/桶。 EIA短期能源展望报告预计2025年布伦特原油价格为68.91美元/桶，此前预计为68.76美元/桶；预计2026年为55.08美元/桶，此前预计为54.92美元/桶。预计 2025年WTI原油价格为 ...

【导读】白银暴涨，见证历史了 中国基金报记者 泰勒 大家好，今晚继续股关注海外市场的表现。 白银创历史新高 12月9日晚间，黄金小幅走高，白银则攀升至历史新高。 Global X ETFs高级投资分析师Trevor Yates表示，在美联储会议召开前夕，市场几乎笃定本次将降息25个基点，"白银今 天早盘与黄金一起受到追捧"。 截至发稿， 现货白银首次站上60美元/盎司的心理关口， 纽约期银也首次站上60美元/盎司， 沪银主力合约现涨幅超过3%，最 高涨至14086元/千克，续创历史新高。 纽约白银 CFD(2603) < ◀ ▶ 期 SI 60.38 +1.98 +3.39% 12-09 23:49:18 今开 持仓量 最高 60.55 58.52 == 振幅 最低 57.99 4.37% 美元指数 99.2432 +0.1444% > 周K 月K 更多 分时 五日 日K (0) 均价:59.26 最新:60.39 +1.98 +3.39% 60.54 3.66% 0.00% 58-40 56.26 -3.66% 07:00 18:30 06:00 4 4 4 2 +1.11% 13632 0.00% 134 ...

【导读】白银暴涨，见证历史了 大家好，今晚继续股关注海外市场的表现。 12月9日晚间，黄金小幅走高，白银则攀升至历史新高。 Global X ETFs高级投资分析师Trevor Yates表示，在美联储会议召开前夕，市场几乎笃定本次将降息25个基点，"白银今天早盘与黄金一起 受到追捧"。 截至发稿，现货白银首次站上60美元/盎司的心理关口，纽约期银也首次站上60美元/盎司，沪银主力合约现涨幅超过3%，最高涨至14086 元/千克，续创历史新高。 美股震荡 12月9日晚间，美股三大指数走势维持窄幅震荡，小幅上涨 | iho 47855.85 | | --- | | 道琼斯指数 +0.24% | 白银创历史新高 分析师表示："虽然现在降息几乎已经是板上钉钉，但美联储公布的经济预测，以及鲍威尔主席的表态，将在很大程度上决定市场的反应 ——不仅是本周的走势，甚至可能为整个12月定下基调。在近期股市和加密资产回调之后，偏好风险资产的投资者希望，美联储能为年底 行情'加点润滑油'，而不是给刚刚出现的反弹泼冷水。" 分析指出，美联储在本次决策前需要权衡多重因素：粘性的通胀、前景不明的宏观环境、因创纪录的美国政府停摆而推迟公 ...

除了货币政策，此次会议还有哪些议题值得关注？ 美联储是否会降息？ 美国联邦储备委员会12月货币政策例会于当地时间12月9日和10日举行。市场普遍认为，考虑到近期美 国就业市场数据疲软，美联储很可能在本月将联邦基金利率目标区间下调25个基点到3.50%至3.75%之 间。 监制 | 刘轶瑶 策划 | 杨卓英 记者 | 单姗 后期 | 汲洋 《闪评》邀请中国人民大学经济学院教授王晋斌进行解读。 来源 | 总台环球资讯 签审 | 杨卓英 ...

（原标题：风向突变！从欧美到澳洲 全球交易员正押注降息叙事终结） 智通财经APP获悉，从澳大利亚、欧洲到美国，交易员们正日益押注全球央行的货币政策宽松步伐将放 缓甚至完全停止。 市场重新定价的直接影响很可能是债券收益率上行。尽管美国、欧洲、英国及日本的国债收益率在周二 小幅回落，但整体来看，本月以来各主要经济体国债收益率均已大幅攀升。 不过，短期来看，美联储将于当地时间周三公布的货币政策决议，或将限制收益率的进一步波动空间。 此外，美国方面还将于周二晚些时候发布10月职位空缺数据。 瑞穗国际策略师Evelyne Gomez-Liechti表示："若此次公布的数据表现疲软，或许足以推动美元利率收 复过去几个交易日的部分失地。" 即便是外界普遍预测本月将启动降息的美国，其2026年的政策前景也在发生变化。交易员目前预计，美 联储明年仅会降息两次，较上月末预测的三次有所下调。 德意志银行全球宏观研究主管Jim Reid在一份客户报告中指出："一个显著的趋势是，越来越多经济体 的市场定价已将加息视为下一轮货币政策动向。若美国也步入这一行列，风险资产价格及明年整体经济 前景无疑将被彻底颠覆。" 此次市场对货币政策路径的 ...