证券研究报告——宏观策略月报 由守转攻，布局高景气 ——2025年12月资产配置报告 HWABAO SECURITIES 2025年12月4日 分析师： 蔡梦苑（执业证书编号：S0890521120001） 分析师： 郝一凡（执业证书编号：S0890524080002） 分析师： 刘 芳（执业证书编号：S0890524100002） ► 请仔细阅读报告结尾处风险提示及免责声明 宏观主线梳理 | | 大类资产配置观点 | | | --- | --- | --- | | 资产类别 | 本期 | 上期 | | A股 | 相对乐观 | 中性 | | 港股 | 中性 | 中性 | | 利率债 | 中性 | 中性 | | 信用债 | 中性 | 中性 | | 可转债 | 中性 | 中性 | | 美股 | 相对乐观 | 中性 | | 美债 | 相对乐观 | 相对乐观 | | 美元 | 相对谨慎 | 相对谨慎 | | 日股 | 中性 | 中性 | | 黄金 | 中性 | 中性 | | 原油 | 相对乐观 | 中性 | | 货币/存款 | 中性 注：市场观点反映对本期资产价格的趋势预判，本期相比于上期的变化对应仓位调整建议：观点 ...

Group 1 - The core viewpoint of the article emphasizes the interdependence of AI and ESG, suggesting that the future of AI development must align with ESG principles to create a greener, smarter, and fairer society [1][3] - Wang Zhongmin highlights that AI's development is heavily reliant on energy, noting the trend that "the end of green electricity is space," indicating a potential shift of AI computing centers to space for sustainable energy supply [3] - The article discusses the transformation in material usage driven by AI, moving from single materials to composite materials, influenced by ESG's strict resource consumption requirements [3] Group 2 - Wang Zhongmin points out that ESG requirements are driving breakthroughs in AI hardware, particularly through the rise of optical computing, which significantly reduces energy consumption and increases speed [3] - The emergence of new hardware like thermodynamic chips is mentioned as a response to energy efficiency challenges, showcasing how ESG demands are prompting innovation in AI technology [3] - The article addresses the social implications of AI, stressing that AI must adhere to social responsibility requirements outlined in ESG, particularly in addressing aging populations and ensuring equitable wealth distribution [4]

Core Insights - Brevo, a Paris-based customer relationship management company, has achieved "unicorn" status with a valuation exceeding $1 billion after raising €500 million (approximately $583 million) in its latest funding round [1][6] - The company aims to expand its market presence in the U.S. and compete with industry giants like HubSpot and Salesforce, with a goal for the U.S. market to contribute 50% of its revenue [1][2][6] Financial Performance - Brevo's annual recurring revenue (ARR) surpassed $100 million in 2023, qualifying it as a "decacorn" [2][7] - The company has already met its 2025 target of €200 million in ARR ahead of schedule and plans to reach €1 billion by 2030 [2][5][7] - Brevo's EBITDA margin is reported to be in double digits, indicating strong profitability [2][7] Funding and Investment Strategy - The recent funding will be allocated towards two main initiatives: investing €50 million in artificial intelligence over the next five years and pursuing acquisitions as a growth strategy [2][7][9] - Brevo has completed 11 acquisitions to date and plans for acquisitions to contribute 45% of its revenue target by 2030 [5][9] Market Position and Strategy - Brevo has transitioned from a small email marketing provider to a comprehensive platform offering marketing automation, CRM, and customer data management [3][8] - The company competes with Mailchimp in the email marketing space while also integrating AI technologies into its offerings [4][9] - Brevo's competitive strategy focuses on product excellence rather than relying solely on its European roots [3][8]

受科技股"七巨头"主导美股、AI泡沫担忧影响，英国多只养老金基金减持美股，部分转向国债与黄金， 也有基金调整科技股持仓而非全面撤离。 由于担心美股市场日益集中于少数科技股，且人工智能（AI）领域存在泡沫风险，英国养老金基金正 削减其美股敞口。 为数百万英国储户管理着超2000亿英镑资产的多家养老金计划向《金融时报》表示，近几个月来，它们 已将资产配置转向其他区域，或为应对潜在股价下跌增加了防护措施。 此番调整之际，受英伟达（NVDA）、Alphabet（GOOGL）和Meta（META）等所谓"七巨 头"（Magnificent Seven）股票推动，以科技股为主的纳斯达克综合指数（IXIC）今年已飙升逾20%，自 2023年初以来更是翻倍有余。 这引发了市场对"少数股票主导市场"的担忧，且泡沫风险可能导致退休储户面临大幅抛售的冲击。 富达国际（Fidelity）管理着239亿英镑的未来智慧基金（FutureWise fund），该公司表示并未减少美股 敞口，但重点通过将美股敞口转向"更稳定"的公司，同时"增持黄金进行风险对冲、缩短债券久期"，为 临近退休的成员提供保护。 斯图尔特称，该基金正在减少美股配置， ...

Core Viewpoint - The stock prices of Apple-related companies listed in mainland China and Hong Kong have shown strong performance, driven by the success of the new "iPhone 17" and a shift in business models towards profitability in the AI sector, contrasting with Apple's modest stock price increase of only 14% from late 2024 to December 2, 2025 [2][10]. Group 1: Financial Performance - Foxconn Industrial Internet (FII) reported a strong financial performance for Q3 2025, with revenue reaching 243.1 billion yuan, a 42% year-on-year increase, and net profit surpassing 10.3 billion yuan, up 62% [2]. - The revenue from AI servers using GPUs increased fivefold, while revenue from high-speed data communication network devices for AI data centers surged 27 times [5]. - Luxshare Precision, another Apple supplier, saw its revenue grow by 31% year-on-year to 96.4 billion yuan for Q3 2025, with net profit increasing by 25% to 3.9 billion yuan, largely attributed to AI-related factors [8]. Group 2: Business Model Shifts - Companies in the Apple supply chain are increasingly focusing on AI-related businesses to mitigate risks associated with dependency on Apple contracts, which can be terminated unexpectedly [9]. - Industrial Internet's strong performance in AI servers is partly due to the challenges posed by U.S. semiconductor export restrictions, leading to a restructuring of supply chains [7]. - Blue Glass Technology is attempting to reduce its reliance on Apple by diversifying into AI-equipped automotive smart cockpits, with its revenue from non-Apple related businesses growing to nearly 10% [9]. Group 3: Market Dynamics - The competitive landscape in AI investments between the U.S. and China is benefiting companies integrated into the global supply chain, as they adapt to the changing market conditions [2]. - The departure of Apple's AI department head raises questions about Apple's future profitability in AI, while companies that have already pivoted towards AI are receiving positive market feedback [10].

Investment Rating - The report does not explicitly state an investment rating for the industry, but it emphasizes the potential growth and investment opportunities in the AR glasses market. Core Insights - The development of consumer-grade AR glasses has been relatively slow due to the challenge of achieving both lightweight design and affordability. The current trend is towards a "gradual iteration" paradigm, starting with audio glasses, moving to AI glasses, and eventually to AI+AR glasses [2][3]. - The global market for AI smart glasses is projected to reach 1.52 million units in 2024, while traditional AR glasses are expected to sell 500,000 units. The acceptance of "AI+social" product positioning is reflected in the sales growth of Meta's upgraded Ray-Ban Meta glasses, which are expected to reach nearly 3 million units by Q2 2025 [2][3]. - The traditional eyewear market, with annual sales exceeding 1.5 billion units, provides a substantial replacement market for smart glasses. If the AI+AR solution matures, the penetration rate could rise from 0.01% in 2023 to 4.44% by 2030, with the global AR smart glasses market projected to grow from 735 million RMB in 2023 to 118.7 billion RMB by 2030, reflecting a CAGR of 106.7% [3][4]. Summary by Sections Industry Turning Point - The XR industry is diversifying, with AR emerging as a new growth engine. The report outlines the historical challenges and commercialization phases of AR technology, highlighting the shift from initial excitement to a recovery growth phase driven by technological advancements [12][16][24]. Competitive Landscape - The competition is evolving from a focus on hardware products to building ecological barriers. Major players like Meta and Google are adopting different strategies, with Meta focusing on AI+AR technology and Google moving towards an open ecosystem model. Domestic companies are categorized into those focusing on rapid hardware iteration and those leveraging their mobile ecosystems for cross-device collaboration [4][5][6]. Industry Chain Analysis - The report emphasizes the importance of focusing on core segments of the industry chain that hold significant value. The cost structure of AR glasses is detailed, with optical display units accounting for 43% of the BOM cost, followed by chip-based computing units at 31% [5][6]. Market Outlook - The report predicts a significant growth trajectory for AR glasses, with a gradual increase in sales expected as the technology matures. The AI glasses market is expected to see substantial growth, with sales projected to reach 3.5 million units by 2025, while traditional AR glasses are forecasted to sell only 650,000 units [49][52]. Conclusion - The report concludes that the gradual iteration path taken by AI glasses is more aligned with market demands, providing a foundation for the future development of AR glasses. This approach is expected to facilitate the overcoming of initial technological bottlenecks and accelerate market penetration [34][41][42].

Summary of China & ASEAN Data Centers Conference Call Industry Overview - The report focuses on the China and ASEAN data center sector, highlighting positive trends in order volume, capital expenditure (capex) expansion, and capital recycling strategies for companies like GDS and VNET [1][6][37]. Key Companies - **GDS Holdings (GDS)**: Target price set at US$43/HK$42 for ADR/H-share, reflecting a slight decrease from previous targets. Valuation of DayOne, a subsidiary, increased by 17% to US$10.5/HK$10.2 per GDS ADR/H-share [1][49]. - **VNET**: Maintained a target price of US$14, with a Buy rating [1][49]. Core Insights - **Order Volume and Demand**: Both GDS and VNET are expected to secure around 300MW of orders each in 2026, representing a significant increase in market share from 9% in 2025 to approximately 20% of incremental data center demand in China [6][10]. - **Capex Growth**: GDS's organic capex is projected to reach Rmb7 billion in 2026, up from Rmb4.8 billion in 2025, to support capacity expansion. VNET's capex is expected to exceed Rmb8 billion for 350-400MW capacity delivery [6][7]. - **Favorable Financing Environment**: The report notes a positive outlook for financing, with GDS and VNET expected to generate substantial operating cash flow (Rmb4 billion+ for GDS and Rmb3 billion+ for VNET in 2026) [7][10]. Financial Performance - **DayOne's Performance**: DayOne reported a significant year-over-year growth in revenue (+177%) and adjusted EBITDA (+358%), indicating strong operational execution and capacity expansion [53][59]. - **Capacity Expansion**: DayOne aims to reach approximately 1GW of committed capacity by the end of 2025, with ongoing projects in Thailand and other regions [53][54]. Market Trends - **Data Center Demand Growth**: The China data center market is projected to grow at a CAGR of 23% from 2024 to 2028, reaching 33GW by 2028 [10][12]. - **Utilization Rates**: GDS and VNET are expected to account for over 11% of data center demand in China by 2028, driven by above-industry utilization rates [17][12]. Regulatory Environment - New electricity tariffs in Malaysia may increase operational costs for data center operators, while stricter water consumption rules could benefit companies like DayOne that focus on higher-tier data centers [54][54]. Valuation Adjustments - GDS's valuation was adjusted to Rmb66 billion or US$37.4/HK$36.4 per ADR/H-share due to increased share count from recent offerings. DayOne's valuation was raised based on improved growth estimates [48][49]. Conclusion - The outlook for the China and ASEAN data center sector remains positive, with strong demand, increased capex, and favorable financing conditions. GDS and VNET are well-positioned to capitalize on these trends, supported by robust operational performance and strategic expansions.

Group 1 - The latest ADP employment report indicates a surprising decrease of approximately 32,000 jobs in the U.S. private sector for November 2025, significantly below market expectations for job growth [1] - Treasury Secretary Yellen noted that certain sectors of the economy are showing signs of weakness, suggesting a need for interest rate cuts [1] - Micron Technology announced plans to acquire startup Celestial AI for about $3.25 billion, aiming to capture a larger share of the rapidly growing AI computing market [1] Group 2 - Micron Technology reported Q3 FY2026 revenue of $2.08 billion, a 37% year-over-year increase, slightly above market expectations of $2.07 billion [1] - Adjusted earnings per share for Micron were reported at $0.76, also exceeding market expectations [1] - Microsoft shares fell nearly 3% as reports emerged that several sales teams had not met fiscal year-end targets, leading to lowered sales growth expectations for some AI products [1] Group 3 - Apple shares rose nearly 1%, with IDC predicting that iPhone shipments in 2025 could reach a new high, surpassing the record set in 2021, driven by strong performance of the iPhone 17 series and a recovery in the Chinese market [3] - Tesla shares increased nearly 3% following CEO Musk's announcement about the progress of the Optimus humanoid robot, with production lines expected to be operational next year [3] - Capricor Therapeutics Inc. experienced a surge of over 500% in stock price due to positive results from its Phase 3 trial for DMD cell therapy, leading to a temporary trading halt [3] Group 4 - The Nasdaq Golden Dragon China Index fell nearly 1%, with Bawang Tea's shares dropping nearly 6% despite a strong operational performance, including over 30% growth in membership and a 26% increase in store count [4] - Alibaba shares declined by over 2%, while companies like Yijiatong Technology and Douyu saw gains of over 4% [5]

Market Overview - The three major U.S. indices rose, with the Dow Jones up 408.44 points (0.86%) to 47882.9, the Nasdaq up 40.42 points (0.17%) to 23454.09, and the S&P 500 up 20.35 points (0.3%) to 6849.72 [1] - European indices showed mixed results, with Germany's DAX30 down 14.85 points (0.06%) to 23695.02, while Spain's IBEX35 rose 124.55 points (0.76%) to 16590.55 [1] Employment Data - The ADP report indicated a surprising decline in U.S. private sector employment for November, with a loss of 32,000 jobs, following a revised gain of 47,000 jobs in October [4] - The unemployment rate rose to a four-year high of 4.4% in September, with only 119,000 jobs added to the economy [4] Service Sector Performance - The ISM non-manufacturing PMI for November was reported at 52.6, slightly up from 52.4 in October, indicating stable service sector activity [5] - However, the employment index within the service sector remains in contraction at 48.9, marking six consecutive months of decline [5] Commodity Prices - Crude oil prices saw slight increases, with light crude for January delivery at $58.95 per barrel (up 0.53%) and Brent crude for February at $62.67 per barrel (up 0.35%) [2] - Gold prices fell by 0.07% to $4202.85 [3] Corporate Developments - Salesforce (CRM.US) reported Q3 revenue of $10.3 billion, a 9% year-over-year increase, with adjusted EPS of $3.25 compared to $2.41 last year [10] - Coinbase (COIN.US) CEO announced that major banks are collaborating with the company on pilot projects related to cryptocurrency trading [12] - Meta (META.US) has hired Apple's design head Alan Dye, indicating a strategic move to enhance its hardware and AI integration [11]

Financial Data and Key Metrics Changes - Revenue increased by 7% year-over-year, with service revenue up 1% to $120.3 million and custodial revenue growing 13% to $159.1 million [19] - Net income surged by 806% year-over-year to $51.7 million, or $0.59 per share, while non-GAAP net income increased by 26% to $87.7 million [21] - Adjusted EBITDA rose by 20% to $141.8 million, with an adjusted EBITDA margin of 44%, up 460 basis points from the previous year [21][23] Business Line Data and Key Metrics Changes - Health Savings Accounts (HSAs) grew by 6%, with total accounts increasing by 5% and HSA assets up 15% to over $34 billion [5][10] - The number of HSA members who invest grew by 12%, and HSA invested assets increased by 29% to $17.5 billion [10] - The average HSA balance grew by 8% year-over-year, contributing to the 15% increase in HSA assets [8] Market Data and Key Metrics Changes - The annualized yield on HSA cash was 3.53% for the quarter, reflecting higher placement rates and increased balances [19] - Interchange revenue grew by 6% to $42.8 million, outpacing total account growth of 5% [19] Company Strategy and Development Direction - The company aims to help members save, spend, and invest for health, addressing the affordability challenge faced by American families and employers [6] - A new direct HSA enrollment platform was launched to facilitate HSA adoption, particularly for those choosing bronze plans on the ACA exchanges [8] - The company is focused on expanding the use of HSAs and enhancing consumer control, with ongoing efforts to educate policymakers about the benefits of HSAs [12][17] Management's Comments on Operating Environment and Future Outlook - Management expressed optimism about new account growth in Q4, driven by partnerships with employers and plan design [8] - The company is well-prepared for the busy season with enhanced security features and a member-first mobile experience [10] - Management highlighted the importance of AI in improving service efficiency and personalizing member experiences [11] Other Important Information - The company repurchased approximately $94 million of its outstanding shares during the quarter, with $259 million remaining on the share purchase authorization [22][26] - Fraud costs were approximately $0.3 million, significantly below the target run rate [11] Q&A Session Summary Question: What are the marketing plans for the direct HSA enrollment platform? - The company aims for a seamless enrollment experience and will market through integrated plan partners, focusing on brand marketing and growth initiatives [31][32] Question: Will there be a material contribution from standalone HealthEquity versus integrated plan partners? - The majority of business comes through partners, and the company is investing in retail experience to attract new members [40][41] Question: Is there an opportunity to increase the minimum threshold before HSA consumers can invest? - The minimum threshold is typically set by enterprise clients, and there is a significant opportunity to drive engagement and education around HSAs [44][46] Question: Are employer sponsors moving towards HSAs at an accelerating rate for 2026? - There is a realization among employers about rising healthcare costs, and the company expects greater adoption this year compared to last [56][58] Question: Are there new custodial opportunities as markets develop? - The company is actively exploring new market opportunities, particularly in light of the affordability crisis and the need for HSAs [58][59]