当地时间5日，英国《金融时报》发表文章称，美国政府发动关税战、贸易战，加之美国债务水平持续 飙升，导致全球大型机构投资者对美国资产的信心正在动摇，开始将资金撤出美国市场，转移至其他地 区。文章称，近期美国政府反复无常的贸易政策扰动全球市场，导致美元贬值，美国资本市场今年以来 的表现也远不及预期。此外，特朗普政府力推的"大而美"法案预计将使美国减少3.7万亿美元税收，在 未来10年增加2.4万亿美元赤字。这些因素促使机构投资者纷纷重新评估其在美国市场的持仓规模。(央 视新闻) ...

Market Overview - The market showed a mixed performance with the Shanghai Composite Index closing up by 1.26 points, a 0.04% increase, while the Shenzhen Component Index fell by 19.8 points, a 0.19% decrease [1] - The trading volume in both markets decreased by approximately 140 billion compared to the previous day, with around 2,600 stocks experiencing gains and losses [1] Industry Performance - The coal sector experienced a rebound, with the coal ETF (515220) rising by 0.41% after reaching a peak increase of 1.12% [3] - Recent trends indicate stabilization in the prices of thermal coal and coking coal, supported by the approaching summer electricity peak [5][6] - The coal industry is expected to see marginal performance recovery due to improved market expectations and demand-side support from the easing of tariff risks following the recent US-China talks [6][7] Policy and Economic Outlook - The recent US-China summit call has injected new momentum into trade discussions, alleviating short-term concerns over tariff escalations [2] - The Chinese government aims for a GDP growth of around 5% this year, with an increase in local government special bonds to 4.4 trillion yuan, which is expected to boost infrastructure investment and industrial recovery [6] Investment Opportunities - The coal sector's dividend yield is currently at a historical high, making it attractive for long-term investors [7] - The innovation drug sector, particularly the AI-driven pharmaceutical development, shows potential for growth, with the innovation drug ETF (517110) outperforming the industry index by over 17% this year [9][13] - The approval of multiple innovative drugs is expected to enhance industry sentiment and support company performance, making related ETFs worth considering for investment [13]

1. Report Industry Investment Rating - No specific industry investment rating is provided in the report. 2. Core Viewpoints - **Stock Index**: The A-share market showed a mixed performance with most indices closing higher. The TMT sector recovered while the consumer sector declined. The internal policy drive is the main theme for the stock index in 2025. Various policy measures are expected to help companies repair their balance sheets, promote stable economic development, and gradually increase stock market valuations. The overall view is that the stock index will be in a volatile state [1]. - **Treasury Bonds**: Treasury bond futures showed different trends, with some contracts rising and others falling. The central bank's operations affected the bond market, and after macro - disturbances, the bond market followed changes in the capital market and economic fundamentals. The bond market is expected to remain in a sideways volatile pattern in the short term [2]. 3. Summary by Directory 3.1 Research Views - **Stock Index**: On June 5, 2025, most A-share market indices closed higher. The Wind All - A index rose 0.42% with a trading volume of 1.32 trillion yuan. The CSI 1000 index rose 0.72%, the CSI 500 index rose 0.54%, the SSE 50 index rose 0.05%, and the SSE 300 index rose 0.23%. The TMT sector recovered while the consumer sector declined. April economic data showed a slight decline compared to March but remained resilient. Social retail sales increased by 5.1% year - on - year, supported by the "trade - in" policy. Social credit demand was weak in April, with a cumulative new RMB loan of 10.06 trillion yuan, a year - on - year increase of 2.86%, and M2 growth of 8% year - on - year. The Sino - US joint statement and domestic policies such as RRR and interest rate cuts, and measures to encourage long - term funds to enter the market are expected to boost the stock market [1]. - **Treasury Bonds**: On June 5, 2025, the 30 - year Treasury bond futures main contract fell 0.16%, the 10 - year main contract fell 0.01%, the 5 - year main contract rose 0.02%, and the 2 - year main contract rose 0.04%. The central bank conducted 1265 billion yuan of 7 - day reverse repurchase operations, with a net withdrawal of 1395 billion yuan. The capital market was generally loose. The central bank's upcoming 10000 - billion - yuan outright reverse repurchase operation led to a slight decline in Treasury bond yields. After adjustments, the bond market is in a sideways volatile pattern [2]. 3.2 Daily Price Changes - **Stock Index Futures**: On June 5, 2025, compared with June 4, IH rose 0.01%, IF rose 0.25%, IC rose 0.61%, and IM rose 0.79% [3]. - **Stock Indices**: The SSE 50 index rose 0.05%, the SSE 300 index rose 0.23%, the CSI 500 index rose 0.54%, and the CSI 1000 index rose 0.72% [3]. - **Treasury Bond Futures**: TS rose 0.03%, TF remained unchanged, T fell 0.04%, and TL remained unchanged [3]. - **Treasury Bond Yields**: The yields of 2 - year, 5 - year, 10 - year, and 30 - year Treasury bonds changed by - 1.45bp, - 0.46bp, 0.59bp, and 0.7bp respectively [3]. 3.3 Market News - The central bank announced that on June 6, 2025, it will conduct a 10000 - billion - yuan outright reverse repurchase operation with a 3 - month term using a fixed - quantity, interest - rate tender, and multiple - price winning method [5]. 3.4 Chart Analysis - **Stock Index Futures**: The report presents the trends of IH, IF, IM, IC main contracts, and the corresponding basis trends [7][8][11]. - **Treasury Bond Futures**: It shows the trends of Treasury bond futures main contracts, Treasury bond yields, basis, inter - period spreads, cross - variety spreads, and capital interest rates [14][16][18]. - **Exchange Rates**: Charts display the trends of the US dollar against the RMB, the euro against the RMB, forward exchange rates, the US dollar index, and cross - currency exchange rates [21][22][25].

Group 1: U.S. Soft Power and Global Influence - The U.S. has built its soft power post-World War II through political values, technological innovation, cultural appeal, and legitimate foreign policy, gaining significant influence in creating a new international order [1] - In the last decade, U.S. soft power has been severely impacted by the rise of unilateralism, protectionism, and cultural conservatism, leading to a decline in its international image and trust in its values and policies, particularly during Trump's presidency [1][2] - Trump's "America First" policy has led to a rejection of multilateralism, with the U.S. ranking lowest in support for multilateralism among 193 UN member states, which has resulted in a breakdown of international trade systems and supply chains [3][4] Group 2: Economic and Trade Policies - Trump's administration has adopted a confrontational approach to economic relations, exemplified by increasing tariffs, which has disrupted the multilateral free trade system and caused significant supply chain issues globally [3][4] - A Pew Research Center survey indicated that in 21 relatively affluent countries, 10 experienced a decline in favorable views of the U.S. by 6 percentage points or more, with Australia, Israel, South Africa, and Germany seeing the largest drops [4] - Trump's trade policies, including high tariffs, threaten the global trade system, which could lead to a decrease in demand for the dollar and weaken its value and credit [8][9] Group 3: Financial Stability and Dollar Credit - The U.S. has maintained financial hegemony through the dollar, which has been supported by its historical ties to gold and later oil, but this trust is now at risk due to increasing national debt and fiscal deficits [7][8] - The U.S. national debt has exceeded $36 trillion, with rising interest costs impacting the country's creditworthiness, leading to higher yields on U.S. Treasury bonds [8][9] - Trump's policies have contributed to a weakening dollar, with long-term Treasury yields rising above 4%, indicating market uncertainty and increasing risks to dollar credit [9] Group 4: Impact on Scientific Research and Education - Trump's administration has significantly cut funding for scientific research, with the National Science Foundation's new project funding dropping nearly 50% compared to the previous year, and the NIH's indirect costs being reduced from 40% to 15% [11][12] - The administration's focus on "useful research" has led to a decline in support for basic research, which is crucial for long-term innovation and competitiveness [12][17] - The reduction in federal funding has resulted in layoffs and program cuts at major universities, with institutions like Johns Hopkins and Harvard facing significant financial constraints [16][17] Group 5: Broader Implications for U.S. Soft Power - The ongoing conflict between Trump's administration and academic institutions reflects a broader ideological battle between conservative and progressive values, impacting the U.S.'s ability to attract and retain top talent in science and technology [15][17] - The erosion of support for scientific research and education under Trump's policies threatens the U.S.'s historical leadership in global science and technology, potentially diminishing its soft power [18]

中美深夜通话，特朗普在时隔8年之后，终于等到了访华邀请。 在事先未预告的情况下，北京时间5日晚上近9点，应特朗普的请求，中美两国领导人进行了一次长达一个半小时的电话会谈。 这通电话不仅是对日内瓦经贸会谈成果的一次确认，更是为即将展开的新一轮高层互动定调。 新华社发布的新闻通稿显示，中方领导人明确表示，欢迎特朗普再次访华。而特朗普也对此表达了感谢，并重申美中关系的重要性。 值得注意的是，此次通话是在日内瓦经贸磋商取得初步成果之后展开的。 根据美方提议，两国经贸牵头人在日内瓦举行会谈，迈出了通过对话协商解决经贸问题的重要一步，受到两国各界和国际社会普遍欢迎。 【日内瓦之后，一场务实且克制的对话】 从双方披露的信息来看，此次通话内容务实、基调稳定，体现出双方在复杂局势下寻求合作与缓和的共同意愿。 中方领导人指出，"校正中美关系这艘大船的航向，需要我们把好舵、定好向。尤其是排除各种干扰甚至破坏，这尤为重要。" 这个比喻既形象，又深具战略意味。它意味着中美关系并非不可逆转地滑向对抗，而是仍有机会通过理性对话和政策协调实现再平衡。 【特朗普面临多重压力，中美对话或成突破口】 就在通话前两天，美国供应管理协会（ISM）公布 ...

Core Viewpoint - Silver prices surged by 4.5% on Thursday, reaching above $36 per ounce, marking the highest level since February 2012, driven by technical momentum, improved fundamentals, and increased investor interest [1][3] Group 1: Market Dynamics - The recent surge in silver prices is narrowing the gap with gold, which has seen a 42% increase over the past 12 months, while silver's increase was only about 15% [1][3] - Significant inflows into silver exchange-traded funds (ETFs) were observed, with a daily increase of 2.2 million ounces in holdings, indicating a potential for larger trend-driven movements [3] - The shift in investor interest from gold to silver suggests a critical point where demand for traditional safe-haven assets is evolving towards more resilient alternatives [3] Group 2: Industrial Demand - Silver's dual role as both a financial asset and an industrial raw material provides a solid fundamental support for its price, particularly due to its critical role in clean energy technologies, especially solar panel manufacturing [4] - The silver market is heading towards its fifth consecutive year of supply deficit, exacerbating the supply-demand imbalance and establishing a structural basis for price increases [4] Group 3: Macroeconomic Factors - Recent macroeconomic data indicating a contraction in U.S. service sector activity and slowing job growth has led to a decline in government bond yields, prompting traders to bet on interest rate cuts by the Federal Reserve in October and December [5] - A lower interest rate environment typically benefits non-yielding precious metals, with silver expected to perform particularly well due to its higher price elasticity [5] - The combination of safe-haven demand, industrial shortages, and expectations of monetary easing may lead to price impacts that exceed historical norms [5]

Core Viewpoint - The article argues that ASEAN should adopt a strategy of "doing nothing" in response to the U.S. government's tariff war, rejecting unequal negotiations to better protect its own interests and hold the U.S. accountable for its protectionist actions [1]. Group 1: Economic Impact of U.S. Tariffs - The article highlights that U.S. President Trump’s claims of Asian economies "stealing jobs" are unfounded, as the U.S. unemployment rate is projected to average 3.8% from 2021 to 2024, one of the lowest among developed countries [3]. - The U.S. GDP is expected to reach a record $29.3 trillion in 2024, maintaining its status as the world's largest economy, while the service sector contributes 81% of GDP and employs 79% of the workforce, indicating that manufacturing's role in job creation is minimal [3]. - ASEAN has significantly contributed to U.S. prosperity, supplying critical semiconductor and machinery components essential for U.S. manufacturing competitiveness [4]. Group 2: ASEAN's Response Strategy - ASEAN should not grant tariff concessions to the U.S., reaffirming its core values of non-alignment, multilateralism, and mutual respect [5]. - ASEAN should persuade the U.S. business community that an open and stable market aligns with long-term interests, as U.S. companies have profited significantly from ASEAN's openness [5]. - The article suggests that the ultimate burden of U.S. tariffs will fall on American companies reliant on Southeast Asian supply chains, which will face increased costs, logistical delays, and diminished competitiveness [5]. - ASEAN is encouraged to enhance economic resilience, improve regional integration, diversify trade partners, and expand strategic partnerships, while also promoting diversification in currency settlement and payment systems for a more autonomous future [5].

近段时间，白宫经常传出希望中美高层将要举行通话的消息，足以看出美国已迫不及待想和中国谈判。 可面对白宫方面声称中美高层或在本周通话的言论，中方的一句话，狠狠打了美国的脸。 中国手中的"稀土牌"，成为了我们与美国的"关税战"中最好的反制手段。这从特朗普政府频频暴怒跳脚，出台一系列对华限制措施的表现可以看出来。 美国一边不断发起对华制裁，一边又企求对华通话，葫芦里卖的什么药呢？其实原因很简单，那就是美国迫切希望中国能放松稀土出口管制，被"卡脖子"的 美国，有些喘不过来气了。 6月2日，白宫新闻秘书莱维特言之凿凿，称特朗普在本周可能与中方领导人通话。而在此前，美财政部长贝森特等多名美国官员都表示中美两国元首将举行 通话。 咱们也不知道美国人是从哪得来的消息，把没影儿的事说得跟真的似的。6月3日，中国外交部例行记者会上，针对记者提问此事，外交部发言人林剑用简短 的一句话做出回应。 "我没有可以提供的消息。"短短几个字，已把中国的态度表达的十分清楚。美国所期待的中美高层通话，想和我们谈贸易问题，在我们没有看到美国做出实 质性让步，是绝无可能的。 美国"政客新闻网"做出分析称，特朗普政府之所以大肆散布中美将通话的消息，一 ...

Group 1: Market Overview - In May, gold prices experienced a downward adjustment, reaching a low of $3120, ending a streak of new highs since January, influenced by easing trade tensions and geopolitical risks [2] - Oil prices fluctuated, initially rising from $55.78 to around $64, but concerns over oversupply due to OPEC+ increasing production led to a bearish outlook [4][9] - The US dollar index fluctuated, peaking at 101.95 before falling to 99.41, with a significant decline of over 9% since January, raising concerns about the dollar's strength amid trade tensions and potential government shutdowns [6] Group 2: Commodity Performance - Gold remains in a long-term bull market, with expectations of further increases due to potential Fed rate cuts and geopolitical tensions, despite recent price adjustments [8][19] - Oil supply concerns are heightened as OPEC+ announced production increases, leading to predictions of further price declines, with a potential drop below $55 [9][27] - Copper prices are expected to remain volatile due to uncertainties from trade policies and economic conditions, with a projected trading range of $4.50 to $5.30 [10][28] Group 3: Economic Indicators - The US labor market showed resilience with April non-farm payrolls increasing by 177,000, despite the impact of trade tensions [11][13] - Inflation indicators showed a decrease, with April CPI at 2.3%, the lowest since February 2021, suggesting a potential easing of inflationary pressures [11][14] - Economic growth forecasts have been adjusted downward, with expectations of a 1.3% GDP growth rate for 2025, reflecting concerns over trade policies and economic stability [14][16] Group 4: Equity Market Trends - US stock markets rebounded in May, with the S&P 500 up 6.15% and the Nasdaq up 9.56%, as trade tensions eased and investor sentiment improved [29] - The Nikkei 225 index showed a recovery, reaching 38,700, supported by positive economic data and easing trade concerns [10][30] - Investor confidence in Japanese assets is rising due to the weakening of US debt and the attractiveness of Japanese financial assets amid global economic uncertainties [30][31]