Core Viewpoint - The year 2025 is marked by significant economic resilience and vitality in China, showcasing a strong recovery and development trajectory amid global challenges [1]. Group 1: Economic Growth and Development - China's GDP is projected to reach approximately 140 trillion yuan in 2025, with an economic increment of over 35 trillion yuan during the "14th Five-Year Plan" period, equivalent to recreating the economic scale of the Yangtze River Delta [3]. - The average annual growth rate from 2021 to 2024 is expected to be 5.5%, significantly higher than the global average, contributing around 30% to global economic growth [3]. - The "14th Five-Year Plan" has seen a surge in innovation, with record R&D investments and advancements in sectors like renewable energy and electric vehicles [4]. Group 2: Fiscal and Monetary Policy - In 2025, China will implement a combination of "more proactive fiscal policy" and "moderately loose monetary policy," with the fiscal deficit rate rising to a historical high of 4% [6]. - The total new government debt is expected to increase by nearly 3 trillion yuan, reaching approximately 12 trillion yuan [6]. - Monetary policy will focus on supporting economic growth, with a reduction in reserve requirements and interest rates, leading to a significant increase in social financing and loan balances [6][7]. Group 3: Consumer Market and Consumption - Consumption is a key focus for expanding domestic demand, with retail sales expected to exceed 50 trillion yuan, contributing around 60% to economic growth [8]. - The government has increased funding for consumption incentives, doubling the budget for old-for-new consumption programs to 300 billion yuan [8]. - The service sector is experiencing rapid growth, with service retail sales outpacing goods retail sales in growth rates [8]. Group 4: Artificial Intelligence and Technology - 2025 is seen as a breakthrough year for AI applications in China, with the government emphasizing the "Artificial Intelligence+" strategy [10]. - China holds 60% of global AI patents, and the core AI industry is projected to exceed 1.2 trillion yuan by 2025 [10]. - The data industry in China is also expanding, with a current scale of over 5.8 trillion yuan and expected annual growth rates of over 15% from 2025 to 2030 [10]. Group 5: Private Economy and Investment - The private economy is positioned for significant growth, supported by new legislation that reinforces the legal status and development of private enterprises [13]. - Policies aimed at enhancing private investment have been implemented, focusing on expanding access and improving investment efficiency [13]. - Continuous communication between government and private enterprises is fostering a healthier environment for private sector growth [13]. Group 6: Capital Market Reforms - The "Two Innovation Boards" (Science and Technology Innovation Board and Growth Enterprise Market) are undergoing reforms to enhance market inclusivity and adaptability [16]. - Since the introduction of new policies, over 20 companies have applied for IPOs on the Science and Technology Innovation Board, with significant fundraising success [17]. - The capital market is becoming a crucial hub for nurturing new productive forces, with ongoing reforms releasing substantial capital for technological innovation [17]. Group 7: Foreign Trade and Investment - In 2025, China is focusing on stabilizing foreign trade and investment through institutional innovation and open practices, with a notable increase in foreign investment enterprises [20]. - Policies supporting foreign trade and investment are being implemented, including market access expansion and improved business environments for foreign enterprises [21]. - The Hainan Free Trade Port has implemented attractive policies to enhance trade, contributing to China's goal of becoming a trade powerhouse [21]. Group 8: Risk Management and Economic Stability - China is actively addressing risks in key sectors, including local government debt and financial institution stability, to ensure high-quality development [22]. - The government is replacing hidden debts with special bonds, significantly reducing interest costs for local governments [22]. - Measures to stabilize the housing market and support affordable housing projects are being prioritized to protect consumer rights [22].

赵增永表示，党的二十届四中全会对加快建设新型能源体系、发展新质生产力、构建现代化产业体系作 出的战略部署，与新能源的发展方向高度契合，要持续推动全会精神与企业发展的深度融合。 12月9日，学习贯彻党的二十届四中全会精神市委宣讲团在市商务局开展专题宣讲。市委宣讲团成员， 市商务局党组书记、局长李美作专题宣讲报告。 滨州日报/滨州网讯 连日来，学习贯彻党的二十届四中全会精神市委宣讲团到高新技术产业开发区、博 兴县、滨州大有新能源开发有限公司、市商务局、市公用事业集团宣讲，推动全会精神深入人心、落地 生根。 12月17日，学习贯彻党的二十届四中全会精神市委宣讲团报告会在高新技术产业开发区举行，学习贯彻 党的二十届四中全会精神市委宣讲团成员，市委副秘书长、市委政研室主任李雪海作宣讲报告。 报告会上，李雪海紧紧围绕宣讲主题，深刻阐述了党的二十届四中全会的重大意义，从准确把握"十五 五"时期在基本实现社会主义现代化进程中的重要地位，深刻领会"十五五"时期经济社会发展的指导方 针、主要目标、战略任务和重大举措等方面，对党的二十届四中全会精神进行了系统的阐述和深入的解 读。 12月9日，市委宣讲团成员，市司法局党组书记、局长 ...

Group 1: Economic Outlook and Policy Framework - In 2025, China’s economy is at a historical juncture, balancing short-term recovery and long-term transformation under the "14th Five-Year Plan" and the upcoming "15th Five-Year Plan" [1] - The central economic work conference has set the tone for 2026 as "seeking progress while maintaining stability, improving quality and efficiency" [1] - Key challenges include achieving sustainable consumption growth and coordinating the dual strategies of "internal circulation" and "high-level opening up" [1] Group 2: Monetary Policy Insights - There is still room for monetary policy adjustments, including potential interest rate cuts and reserve requirement ratio reductions to support economic recovery [3][4] - Structural tools will be expanded to focus on key national strategies and weak links, such as increasing support for technological innovation [4] - The need for a coordinated approach to counter-cyclical and cross-cyclical adjustments in monetary policy is emphasized to create a stable financial environment [4][5] Group 3: Currency and Exchange Rate Dynamics - The Chinese yuan has strengthened against a backdrop of complex external conditions, driven by domestic economic resilience and improved macro narratives [7] - The central economic work conference emphasizes maintaining the stability of the yuan, focusing on preventing excessive fluctuations [8] - The outlook for the yuan remains uncertain, with potential challenges from trade balance shifts and international economic conditions [9] Group 4: Gold Market Trends - Gold prices have reached new highs, driven by heightened global risk aversion and skepticism towards the US dollar credit system [11] - The forecast for gold prices suggests a potential rise to the range of $4,500 to $5,000 per ounce, influenced by ongoing geopolitical risks and central bank purchasing trends [12] Group 5: Aging Population and Insurance Sector - The aging population necessitates reforms in commercial insurance to address long-term care and wealth transfer needs [14] - The insurance sector is positioned to play a crucial role in providing comprehensive solutions for retirement security and risk management [15][16] Group 6: Internal and External Economic Circulation - The restructuring of global trade and external policy spillover effects are critical external variables for China's economic development [18] - The emphasis is on promoting the deep integration of internal and external circulation through policy guidance and market mechanisms [19] Group 7: Bond Market and Interest Rate Projections - The People's Bank of China is expected to implement a more proactive monetary policy, focusing on structural optimization rather than just total easing [22] - Long-term bond rates are anticipated to experience a phase of decline, influenced by fiscal expansion and ongoing economic recovery [23]

来源：经济学家圈 尹艳林："十五五"时期我国实现年均5%左右增长是完全有可能的 很高兴应邀参加腾讯财经愿景思享年会。今天的主题是"智变之时"。在世界百年变局和智能科技重塑经济的时代潮流中，中国经济发展面临巨 大机遇和新挑战。特别是"十五五"时期成为实现2035年远景目标乃至第二个百年奋斗目标的关键阶段。从中长期来看，中国经济的转型升级还 有哪些难点，哪些领域的改革亟待重点突破，如何推进下一阶段的改革发展，这个是大家很关心的问题。下面我想就这些问题跟大家做一些分 享。 但是我们必须看到，"十五五"时期我国发展环境面临深刻复杂变化，战略机遇和风险挑战并存，特别是国内发展不平衡不充分问题仍然突出， 有效需求不足，国内大循环存在卡点堵点，超大规模市场优势的发挥遇到障碍；新旧动能转换任务艰巨，制造业中传统产业仍占80%，先进制 造业和新兴产业占比还不高，原始创新能力不强，重点领域关键核心技术仍有待攻关突破，企业创新能力有待加强；农业农村现代化相对滞 本 后，城乡基本公共服务水平差距仍然较大，农业转移人口进城落户面临体制性障碍；就业和居民收入增长压力较大，居民财产性收入增长渠道 不畅，养老、医疗、教育、住房等民生保障存在 ...

1. Report Industry Investment Rating No relevant content provided. 2. Core Viewpoints of the Report - In 2026, the price trends of softwood pulp and offset printing paper are expected to be described as "low recovery" and "weak stabilization" respectively. The price center of softwood pulp is expected to move slightly upward, while the price of offset printing paper is expected to remain weak and stable, mainly supported by costs [5]. - Overall, the futures prices of pulp and offset printing paper will fluctuate. In the medium - term, low - buying opportunities can be considered for pulp futures, and high - selling opportunities can be considered for the near - month contracts of offset printing paper [8]. 3. Summary According to the Table of Contents 3.1 Viewpoint Summary 3.1.1 Trend Forecast - In 2026, the supply expansion trend of softwood pulp will slow down, and the demand is expected to stabilize and rebound. However, the market sentiment is limited, and there are still upper limits, with inventory pressure needing continuous attention. The price of double - offset paper is expected to be mainly supported by costs and remain weak and stable [5]. 3.1.2 Strategy Outlook - Pulp and offset printing paper futures prices will fluctuate. Mid - term, consider low - buying for pulp futures and high - selling for near - month offset printing paper contracts [8]. 3.1.3 Risk Points - Risks include changes in macro - policies, significant changes in international trade situations, large - scale shutdowns or resumptions of pulp and paper mills, and restrictions on some supply and transportation channels [9]. 3.2 Market Review 3.2.1 Spot Price Review of Softwood Pulp and Double - Offset Paper - Softwood pulp spot prices declined this year, with a short - term increase in January - February due to domestic supply gaps. After reaching a high of about 6617 yuan/ton in early February, prices dropped by 17.84% by the end of November. Recent slight rebounds are due to traders' reluctance to sell and spot enterprise regulation. The spread between softwood and hardwood pulp prices has fallen to a reasonable range. Double - offset paper prices also declined after a slight increase in Q1, dropping by 13.02% from 5087.5 yuan/ton in mid - March to 4425.0 yuan/ton at the end of November, due to weak demand and over - supply [10][12][16]. 3.2.2 Futures Price Trend Review of Pulp and Offset Printing Paper - Pulp futures reached a high of 6204 yuan/ton in February, then declined, with a temporary halt in the decline in Q3 due to North American pulp mill maintenance expectations. After reaching a low of 4750 yuan/ton in mid - October, prices reversed and rose due to downstream paper mills' price increases, positive macro - sentiment, and news of a US pulp mill shutdown. Offset printing paper futures were listed in September, fluctuated in the first month, rose to 4360 yuan/ton due to paper mills' price support, and then dropped to 3980 yuan/ton, a decline of 8.72% [19]. 3.2.3 Continued Weak Overall Demand - Weak demand is a major factor for the weak pulp and double - offset paper prices. China's softwood pulp monthly apparent consumption in the first 10 months was 707.3 tons, up 2.84% year - on - year, with only 6, 7, 9 months above the average. European consumption of bleached softwood pulp was the lowest in a decade. Paper industry's start - up rates were low, with softwood pulp downstream demand improving slightly but still weak. Double - offset paper demand was even weaker, with the apparent consumption in the first 10 months at 666.7 tons, down 9.87% year - on - year [25]. 3.2.4 Supply Growth Slowed but Pressure Persisted - Pulp supply growth slowed this year, but the overall stock was still high. China's softwood pulp imports had low growth but a high base and increased since August. Paper pulp production increased significantly after mid - September, with a 17.43% year - on - year increase in early December. Global pulp shipments were relatively high, and those to China were lower than in 2023 but higher than last year. Double - offset paper's start - up rate was at a low, but production increased in the second half of the year, and the supply pressure remained due to new capacity [30][32]. 3.2.5 High Inventory and Low Profit - High inventory suppressed pulp and paper prices. China's pulp port inventory was above 200 tons for a long time this year, dropping to 199.3 tons by December 19. Double - offset paper inventory also increased, with both production enterprise and social inventories above the average. Most small and medium - sized enterprises in the softwood pulp and double - offset paper markets were in a loss - making state, with negative gross margins for Chinese softwood pulp since April last year [34][37]. 3.3 Core Focus Points 3.3.1 Macro Changes - Pulp is significantly affected by macro - factors. Interest rate cuts may reduce import costs. Policy changes and tariff adjustments can also impact the industry. For example, if Brazil's export tariff exemption to the US is removed, it may increase China's pulp supply pressure [41]. 3.3.2 Inventory Reduction - High inventory is a key factor suppressing pulp and paper prices. Pulp inventory has declined recently, and the reduction in available registered warehouse receipts due to the adjustment of delivery standards has provided some support to futures prices [42]. 3.3.3 Shutdown/Resumption of Pulp and Paper Mills - Shutdowns or resumptions of pulp and paper mills can affect supply and market sentiment. For example, Domtar's permanent shutdown of the Crofton pulp mill had a positive impact on futures prices [44]. 3.4 Valuation Feedback and Supply - Demand Outlook 3.4.1 Valuation: Relatively Reasonable - Pulp futures valuation is relatively reasonable, with the basis fluctuating and the number of warehouse receipts at a historical low. Offset printing paper futures valuation is currently weak, but the rising basis provides some support at the bottom. The volatility of both pulp and offset printing paper futures is expected to remain low in 2026 [45][47][50]. 3.4.2 Demand: Weak Stabilization - Pulp demand is expected to stabilize and rebound in 2026, with the "14th Five - Year Plan" promoting economic growth and the narrowing price spread between softwood and hardwood pulp potentially increasing softwood pulp demand. Double - offset paper demand is expected to be weak, with factors such as the decline in textbook demand and the popularity of paperless office, but policies like the "National Reading Promotion Regulations" may bring some positive effects [52][57]. 3.4.3 Supply: Pressure Converging - In 2026, the supply pressure of softwood pulp is expected to converge, with limited new capacity growth. Double - offset paper supply pressure remains due to continuous new capacity investment in recent years. Overall, the supply - demand situation of softwood pulp in 2026 is expected to be slightly better than this year, while double - offset paper supply and demand are expected to remain weak and stable [59][61][63].

Core Viewpoint - The market is expected to continue a volatile structural trend in the short term due to seasonal liquidity tightening and fluctuating overseas monetary policy expectations, with rapid sector rotation [1] Group 1 - The A-share market is entering a critical window for year-end layout as 2026 approaches, which is the starting year of the "14th Five-Year Plan" [1] - Attention is drawn to the small fluctuations in the market around New Year's Day, indicating potential short-term trading opportunities [1] - The release of policy dividends is anticipated to be relatively early, with structural opportunities concentrated in sectors that resonate with policy guidance and industry prosperity [1] Group 2 - The upcoming spring market rally is expected to be promising, driven by the structural opportunities identified [1]

短期关注防御性板块配置机会，同时布局明年政策红利与产业景气方向。（1）主线一：全球百年未遇 之大变局加速演进，国内经济底层逻辑转向新质生产力，人工智能、具身智能、新能源、可控核聚变、 量子科技、航空航天等"十五五"重点领域值得关注。（2）主线二：反内卷政策温和推进，供需结构优 化叠加价格回升预期带动下，制造业、资源板块盈利修复路径清晰。（3）辅助线一：扩大内需政策导 向下消费板块迎来布局窗口。（4）辅助线二：出海趋势将带动企业盈利空间进一步打开。 ②光大证券：市场有望震荡上行，关注成长及消费两个方向 光大证券指出，历史来看，A股市场中几乎每年都存在"春季躁动"行情。本周三市场的强力上涨或许标 志着2026年跨年行情已经开启。一方面，政策有望持续发力，经济增长有望保持在合理区间，进一步夯 实资本市场繁荣发展的基础。另一方面，政策红利释放，有望提振市场信心，进一步吸引各类资金积极 流入。政策有望持续发力，叠加各类资金有望积极流入，市场有望震荡上行。 A股后市怎么走？看看机构怎么说。 沪指本周累计涨0.03%，深证成指累计跌0.89%，创业板指跌2.26%。A股后市怎么走？看看机构怎么 说： ①银河证券：市场进入跨 ...

点击标题阅读全文 观点 二手挂牌 | 11月京深杭等100万-300万元总价段占比上升 整体二手房市场成交规模仍将延续波动走势 二手结构 | 11月京沪深杭200万元以下低总价成交占比显著上升 VIEW 克而瑞研究中心 "每周研究精读" ， 聚焦宏观、行业、房企、土拍、产品、客需、榜单等多个研究 成果，与各界探讨行业运行逻辑、变数及未来趋势。 11月二手房成交环比回升同比下滑、需求分层显著，预判12月核心城市成交低位震荡。 行业数据｜房价环比止跌城市增多，供求结构指标持续优化 1 2月15日上午，国家统计局如期发布2 0 2 5年11月宏观经济和房地产数据。国民经济稳步增长，社零同比增速出现 回落。地产行业方面，因行业正处于转型发展的关键时期，再加之上年基数上升的影响，销售规模、房价、投 资、国房景气指数均延续调整。不过从具体城市和项目的角度来看，新房价格、项目去化率等方面仍存有结构性 亮点，行业供求压力也在持续好转。 研报 土地周报 | 成交规模高位上行，深圳湾宅地溢价42%出让（12.8-12.14） 2 025年12月8日- 2025年12月14日（第5 0周），土地供应规模大幅回落，成交规模再创年内新 ...

登录新浪财经APP 搜索【信披】查看更多考评等级 转自：新华财经 酒都岁末，三江迎宾，暖意融融。12月18日，五粮液第二十九届12·18共识共建共享大会如期而至。站在白酒行业结构性变革、发展逻辑重塑的关键节点， 五粮液作为行业龙头企业，如何坚定信心、凝聚共识、应对挑战，吸引着全球酒业关注的目光。 2025年，面对消费市场巨变、行业深度调整、市场竞争加剧等多重冲击，五粮液保持战略定力，积极作为，以"变"求进、以"合"聚力、以"诚"致远，稳健发 展的积极因素和有利条件持续积累。五粮液正以自身的确定性应对市场变化的不确定性，在不确定性中把握确定性新机遇，乘势而上迈向"十五五"新征程。 顺应新形势 变中求进勇作为 即将过去的2025年，是中国白酒产业发展不平凡的一年。这一年，产业深度调整进入"深水区"，产品结构、市场结构、消费结构迎来全方位、颠覆性变革。 对于白酒企业而言，如何迎难而上、变中求进，成为需迫切思考的发展命题。 面对新形势，既要看当前产业运行之"形"，更要看产业长远发展之"势"。中国酒业协会理事长宋书玉表示，困扰产业发展的问题正在缓解，白酒行业正迎来 历史经典产业振兴期，优质产能的扩容期，优质贮能的增长期 ...

Core Viewpoint - The insurance industry is positioned to play a crucial role in enhancing pension finance and addressing the challenges posed by an aging population during the "14th Five-Year Plan" period, with a focus on collaborative efforts across the "three pillars" of pension finance [1][5]. Group 1: Pension Finance and Insurance Industry - In 2026, the insurance industry will focus on pension finance as a core area, with policies and market forces driving the collaboration of the "three pillars" from design to implementation [1]. - The insurance sector is expected to fill gaps in basic social security through inclusive products and services, while addressing longevity risks and capital preservation pressures with annuity schemes and cross-cycle risk management [1][5]. - The development of pension finance is seen as a strategic pillar for enhancing the long-term stability of the pension system and improving residents' welfare [5]. Group 2: Investment Strategies and Challenges - The value of insurance funds as "patient capital" will become more prominent, requiring a shift from being "simple investors" to "professional experts" through enhanced long-term assessment mechanisms and deep industry research [2][8]. - The insurance industry must address challenges such as low interest rates and the balance of risks and returns in technology investments while ensuring long-term investment stability and solvency [8][10]. - A focus on professional depth and risk management is essential for the insurance sector to transition from passive "value guardians" to active "value creators" [10]. Group 3: Product Innovation and Consumer Needs - The insurance industry faces a mismatch between personalized consumer demands and standardized products, necessitating fundamental reforms in product design and service ecosystems [12]. - Advanced technologies like big data and AI can help the insurance sector provide more personalized services and products by analyzing customer needs and optimizing risk management [13][14]. - The integration of insurance products with health management and long-term care services is crucial for reducing overall pension costs and enhancing the resilience of the pension finance system [6][14]. Group 4: Regulatory and Ethical Considerations - The insurance industry must balance technological innovation with compliance and ethical standards, particularly as AI applications evolve from single-point solutions to comprehensive empowerment across the value chain [14][15]. - There is a need for regulatory frameworks that not only correct errors but also allow for experimentation and innovation within the insurance sector [15].