Core Viewpoint - China has significantly reduced its holdings of U.S. Treasury bonds as a strategic response to U.S. pressure, indicating a shift towards financial adjustment rather than direct confrontation [1][3][12] Group 1: Reduction of U.S. Treasury Holdings - In July 2025, China reduced its U.S. Treasury holdings by $182.9 billion, bringing total holdings down to $730.7 billion, the lowest level since 2009 [1] - Since 2022, China has cumulatively reduced its U.S. Treasury holdings by $586 billion, a decrease of 45% [1] Group 2: Increase in Gold Reserves - China has been increasing its gold reserves for 15 consecutive months, reaching 3,400 tons, making it the largest buyer among global central banks [3][9] - The strategy of increasing gold holdings is aimed at reducing dependence on U.S. dollar assets and enhancing financial security [3][12] Group 3: Shift Towards Currency Diversification - The proportion of U.S. dollar assets in China's foreign exchange reserves has decreased from 79% in 2015 to 58% in June 2025, while the share of gold, non-U.S. currencies, and commodities has increased [5] - China is promoting the use of the renminbi in international trade, supported by initiatives like the Belt and Road Initiative and the CIPS system, which covers over 180 countries [9] Group 4: Global De-dollarization Trend - The trend of global de-dollarization is becoming more pronounced, with countries like the EU and India moving towards alternative currencies for trade settlements [6][8] - Former U.S. Treasury Secretary Summers acknowledged that using the dollar as a sanction tool is pushing other countries to seek alternatives [6] Group 5: Strategic Financial Positioning - China's financial strategy is characterized as a proactive defense and a steady pursuit of progress, aiming to minimize risks rather than directly confront the U.S. [3][11] - The overall financial landscape is shifting towards a multi-currency system, moving away from the dollar's dominance [11]

Group 1 - Gold prices have reached a new historical high of $3720 per ounce, marking an increase of nearly 8% for the month [3] - Domestic gold jewelry prices have surpassed ¥1080 per gram, with brands like Chow Tai Fook and Lao Feng Xiang exceeding ¥1085 per gram [3] - The price of Chow Sang Sang's gold jewelry has reached ¥1090 per gram [3] Group 2 - The current geopolitical situation and uncertainties in future economic policies are contributing to the support of gold prices, particularly in the context of a potential interest rate cut by the Federal Reserve [3] - A weakening U.S. economy and the ongoing trend of "de-dollarization" in the global monetary system are expected to provide long-term support for gold prices [3]

Industry Investment Rating - The industry investment rating is maintained at "Outperform the Market" [1] Core Viewpoints - The report highlights that the recent Congo export policy for cobalt is expected to drive prices upward, with a significant reduction in export quotas leading to increased demand for replenishment from downstream enterprises [6] - The report suggests a bullish outlook for precious metals following the recent FOMC meeting, despite some market adjustments, indicating a potential slow bull market for gold [4] - Copper prices are anticipated to break through key resistance levels, supported by seasonal demand increases in China [5] - The aluminum market is expected to see price increases due to rising downstream consumption as the National Day holiday approaches [5] - Lithium demand is projected to grow significantly, driven by a major contract signed by CATL for lithium iron phosphate materials, indicating a strong outlook for lithium prices [7] - Uranium prices are expected to rise due to potential export restrictions from Russia, which could significantly impact global supply [8] Summary by Sections Industry Overview - The closing index for the industry is at 6522.39, with a weekly high of 6795.38 and a low of 3912.76 [1] Price Movements - Basic metals saw declines: copper down 1.19%, aluminum down 1.33%, zinc down 2.88%, lead down 0.17%, and tin down 1.53%. Precious metals had mixed results with gold down 0.22% and silver up 1.13% [21] Inventory Levels - Global visible inventories increased for copper by 7945 tons, aluminum by 8010 tons, and zinc by 2724 tons, while lead saw a decrease of 4085 tons [29]

1. Report Industry Investment Rating No relevant content provided. 2. Core Views of the Report - **Precious Metals**: The Fed cut interest rates by 25 basis points in September and sent a dovish signal. Economic recession risks have boosted safe - haven demand, and long - term factors such as central bank gold purchases and de - dollarization support gold prices [3]. - **Copper**: In the next week, copper may continue to fluctuate strongly around 80,000 yuan per ton. Supply is tight in the short term, and demand remains stable [18]. - **Aluminum**: After the September interest rate cut, the macro - drive has paused. The Shanghai aluminum market may focus on fundamentals, and the price may fluctuate strongly. Alumina may be weak in the short term due to supply surplus, and cast aluminum alloy may fluctuate strongly [37][38]. - **Zinc**: The supply is in an excess state, and the market's expectation for the "Golden September and Silver October" is average. Zinc prices may fluctuate in the short term [68]. - **Nickel Industry Chain**: Nickel ore prices are affected by nickel price movements and supply concerns. The new energy sector provides some support, nickel iron prices are firm, and stainless steel has limited downside space [83]. - **Tin**: The decline in tin prices last week was due to Powell's hawkish speech. The short - term supply is tight, and prices may fluctuate around 274,000 yuan per ton [98]. - **Lithium Carbonate**: Before the National Day holiday, lithium carbonate futures prices are expected to fluctuate. Downstream demand may support prices in the future [109]. - **Silicon Industry Chain**: Industrial silicon prices may rise slightly with the arrival of the dry season, but the increase is limited by inventory. The trading of polysilicon futures is complex, and the risk is relatively high [118]. 3. Summaries by Related Catalogs Precious Metals - **Price Influencing Factors**: Fed's interest rate cut, economic data, central bank gold purchases, and de - dollarization affect gold prices [3]. - **Price Charts**: Include SHFE and COMEX gold and silver prices, gold - silver ratio, gold and US Treasury real interest rates, and gold and US dollar index [4][8][15]. Copper - **Price Outlook**: May fluctuate strongly around 80,000 yuan per ton in the next week [18]. - **Supply - Demand Situation**: Supply is tight as the Indonesian Grasberg copper mine needs 1 - 2 weeks to resume production, and demand remains stable [18]. - **Market Data**: Provide copper futures and spot prices, import and export data, and inventory data [19][24][34]. Aluminum - **Aluminum Price Analysis**: Interest rate cut expectations and fundamentals affect prices. After the interest rate cut, the focus is on inventory, and prices may fluctuate strongly [37]. - **Alumina Situation**: Supply surplus leads to a weak price outlook in the short term [38]. - **Cast Aluminum Alloy**: Rises due to tight scrap aluminum supply and may fluctuate strongly [38]. - **Market Data**: Include aluminum and alumina futures and spot prices, spreads, and inventory data [39][54][64]. Zinc - **Supply - Demand Analysis**: Supply is in excess, and the market's expectation for the peak season is average. LME inventory is decreasing, showing an external - strong and internal - weak pattern [68]. - **Market Data**: Provide zinc futures and spot prices, spreads, and inventory data [69][74][79]. Nickel Industry Chain - **Nickel Ore**: The benchmark price has increased, and supply concerns exist due to government intervention in Indonesia [83]. - **New Energy**: Supports nickel - related product prices [83]. - **Nickel Iron**: Prices are firm, but high - price transactions have declined [83]. - **Stainless Steel**: Has limited downside space due to cost support and de - stocking [83]. - **Market Data**: Include nickel and stainless steel futures prices, trading volume, and inventory data [84]. Tin - **Price Analysis**: The decline last week was due to Powell's hawkish speech. Supply is tight in the short term, and prices may fluctuate around 274,000 yuan per ton [98]. - **Market Data**: Provide tin futures and spot prices, inventory data, and related indexes [99][103][105]. Lithium Carbonate - **Price Outlook**: May fluctuate before the National Day holiday, and downstream demand may support prices [109]. - **Market Data**: Include lithium carbonate futures and spot prices, inventory data [110][112][116]. Silicon Industry Chain - **Industrial Silicon**: Prices may rise slightly with the dry season but are limited by inventory [118]. - **Polysilicon**: The trading focus is on the establishment of the September procurement platform and the November warehouse receipt cancellation. The risk is relatively high [118]. - **Market Data**: Provide industrial silicon and polysilicon spot and futures prices, production, and inventory data [119][120][141].

近段时间，在美联储降息预期持续升温等因素作用下，国际黄金价格上涨明显。如今，美联储降息"靴 子"落地，业内人士认为，国际金价在短期或振幅加大，但长期不改向好态势。 美联储降息落地 金价短线震荡加剧 当地时间9月17日，美联储宣布，将联邦基金利率目标区间下调25个基点到4.00%至4.25%之间。这是美 联储今年第一次降息，也是继去年3次降息后再次降息。 对于此前数日国际金价的接连攀高，山东招金金银精炼有限公司副总经理梁永慧认为，其背后由两大核 心因素共同驱动。一方面，美国总统特朗普对美联储持续施压，引发市场对美联储独立性的担忧，削弱 了市场对美元及美元资产的信心，为黄金这一避险资产提供支撑；另一方面，美国劳动力市场呈现放缓 态势，推动市场对美联储重启降息的预期升温，成为金价上行的关键动力。 由于黄金以美元计价，美联储政策又直接影响美元强弱及实际利率，美联储的利率政策一直是影响黄金 价格的重要因素，也是近期市场关注的焦点。东方金诚研究发展部分析师白雪表示，上周金价延续强 势，主因是市场对美联储降息预期持续升温。上周公布的美国非农年度数据大幅下修，加之前周首次申 请失业金人数增至今年最高，表明美国劳动力市场下行风 ...

Group 1 - Spot gold prices have risen significantly, reaching a record high of $3715 per ounce, with a short-term increase of $10 and a rise of 0.83% [1][2] - The Shanghai gold futures contract has also seen a substantial increase, rising over 2% to 846.64 yuan per gram, marking a new historical high [3] - A-share market gold stocks have experienced notable gains, with companies like Xiaocheng Technology rising over 10%, and Hunan Silver previously hitting the daily limit [5] Group 2 - According to Yuekai Securities, the Federal Reserve's potential resumption of interest rate cuts is favorable for the gold market, as lower interest rates reduce the opportunity cost of holding gold [8] - The current geopolitical situation and economic policy uncertainties are expected to sustain the upward trend in gold prices [8] - The weakening of the US economy and the ongoing trend of "de-dollarization" in the global monetary system are projected to support gold prices in the medium to long term [9]

Group 1 - Gold stocks have seen significant increases, with Tongguan Gold rising by 8.26% to HKD 2.36, Lingbao Gold up 7.35% to HKD 17.67, Shandong Gold increasing by 6.56% to HKD 38.02, Zhaojin Mining up 5.64% to HKD 29.6, and Chifeng Gold rising by 4.72% to HKD 30.62 [1] - On September 22, spot gold prices reached a historical high of USD 3,719 per ounce, marking a year-to-date increase of 40% [1] - Long-term gold allocation remains valuable, driven by the Federal Reserve's continued rate cuts amid economic adjustments and persistent inflation concerns, alongside geopolitical risks and the trend of de-dollarization [1]

前言 7月美国财政部数据显示，外国投资者持有美债总额达9.16万亿美元，创下历史新高。 然而数据背后却是截然不同的选择：英国单月狂买413亿美元，中国却减持257亿美元，加拿大更是抛售571亿美元。 各国为何出现如此分化？这种趋势会持续多久？ 创纪录背后的真相：增长神话正在破灭 数字不会说谎。 而中国、加拿大、印度却是实打实的大规模减持。 这就好比一场聚会，表面上人数创新高，但仔细一看，有人在拼命往里挤，有人却在悄悄往外走。 换句话说，这份"创新高"的成绩单，更像是头部个别国家在撑场面。 而多数其他国家在悄然撤退，只是动作还不够明显。 从增量结构来看，官方机构和私营部门的操作也在分化。 私营部门忙着卖短期国债，转而观望，而官方机构则在选择性加仓长期债券。 这种背道而驰的操作，反映出投资者对未来美国利率走势和财政稳定性的分歧越来越大。 翻开美国财政部最新的TIC报告，9.16万亿美元这个数字确实刷新了外国投资者持有美债的历史纪录。 但仔细一看，这个"创纪录"背后，藏着一个让人意外的事实：增长速度其实在放缓。 7月份的总增量只有319亿美元，而6月份是802亿美元。 增长速度直接砍半。 更有意思的是，这个增长还掺 ...

来源：市场资讯 （来源：同小泰话基金） 国际金价再次逼近3700美元关口，港股黄金板块全线走强，背后是全球央行持续购金与地缘政治风险的 双重支撑。 今日板块行情 今日亚洲早盘时段，现货黄金价格小幅走高，上涨0.1%，报每盎司3687.84美元。市场在美联储降息后 弥漫观望情绪，等待更多关于利率路径的线索。 与此同时，港股黄金概念股表现强劲，黄金股的强劲表现吸引了市场目光，资金涌入黄金相关资产明 显。 黄金卷土重来？ 黄金市场在经过短暂盘整后再次展现强势。今年以来，金价已经上涨40%，市场密切关注在美联储启动 降息循环过程中，黄金是否仍能保持上涨动能。 美联储9月FOMC会议如期降息25个基点，点阵图显示年内还将降息50个基点，符合市场预期。降息落 地后，黄金可能面临"卖事实"的回调压力。 然而，全球央行购金热潮成为金价的重要支撑。自2022年中期以来，各央行的黄金购买量增加了两倍， 达到每季度约1千万盎司。 高盛在近期发布的报告中指出："我们证明了自2022年中期以来，央行推动了黄金需求的增长，而新的 地缘政治或金融冲击可能会大幅推高金价。" 后市展望 多家机构对黄金后市保持乐观态度。渣打银行分析认为，技术支 ...

更重要的是，地缘政治风险如乌克兰、波兰、加沙和加勒比地区的紧张局势，以及中美贸易争端的潜在升级，都在为黄金注入动能，降息加上这些"剑拔弩 张"的国际事件，将促使黄金和白银在短暂获利回吐后涌现。即便贸易问题得到部分解决，减少不确定性可能支撑美元并压低金价，但当前的不确定性风暴 ——包括中东和东欧战争——被视为"完美风暴"，让黄金逆历史趋势与股市并行上涨已有三年之久。Sean Lusk指出，金价从三年前就开始上涨，已远超过 往模式，如果不确定性持续，年底前可能飙至3960美元，甚至4000美元大关。 ---当日金银报价--- 现货黄金报3690附近美元/盎司； 基本面： 周一（9月22日）白银周四早盘高位震荡盘整小幅上涨，美联储降息如约而至，银价未能大涨反而走低，基本面美美债收益率回升与美元反弹：黄金面临的 短期压力与黄金走势密切相关的美国国债市场也呈现出复杂信号。上周，美债收益率大多走高，指标10年期国债收益率连续三天上涨，至4.141%，创两周 高点，周涨幅达8.1个基点。这逆转了此前因降息预期而下滑的趋势，上周初曾触及七个月低点3.994%。收益率回升源于强劲的经济数据，如初请失业金人 数和中大西洋制造业活 ...