北京时间1月31日凌晨，国际金价银价继续大幅下跌。现货黄金价格一度下跌超过12%，为1980年以来最大单日跌幅。截至收盘，现货黄金下跌8.95%报 4892.21美元/盎司。COMEX黄金期货跌8.35%，报4907.5美元/盎司。 | < V | 黄金/美元 | ع | | | --- | --- | --- | --- | | XAU | | | | | 4892.21 今开 5401.07 最高 5450.97 最低 4682.44 | | | | | -8.95%-480.82 芯手 | -- 持仓 | 日增 | | | 結算 | 昨结 5373.03 | | 重零 | | 分时 周Ｋ 月Ｋ | 五日 | 更多,(2) | | | 6063.62 | | 12.85% 卖1 4893.42 | 0 | | | | 买1 4891.00 | O | | | | 时 价 | 를 | | | | 5:58 4892.54 | O | | | | 5:58 4892.32↓ | O | | | | 5:58 4891.26J | O | | | | 5:58 4890.71J | O | | | | 5:58 ...

昨夜今晨，黄金、白银价格继续大幅下跌。纽约黄金期价一度跌破4800美元/盎司关口，跌幅超过 10%；白银期价一度跌破80美元/盎司关口，跌幅超过30%。截至收盘，纽约黄金下跌8.35%，报4907.5 美元/盎司；现货黄金重挫9%，报4891.43美元/盎司；纽约白银下跌25.5%，报85.25美元/盎司。国内夜 盘方面，沪金收跌9.83%，沪银收跌17%。 | 脂自选 总览 | 国内 | 星际 | 今日解读 | | --- | --- | --- | --- | | 合约 能源化工 | 贵金属 | 有色金属 | | | 名称 | ◀ 最新: | 涨幅%; | 涨跌 # | | 微型COMEX黄金主连 MGCW0 | 4914.9 | -8.22% | -439.9 | | 微型COMEX白银主连 SILWO | 85.16 | -25.58% | -29.27 | | COMEX黄金主连 GCW0 | 4907.5 | -8.35% | -447.3 | | COMEX白银主连 SIWO | 85.250 | -25.50% | -29.179 | | 铂金主连 PLWO | 2178.2 | -16.81 ...

特朗普要鲸吞蚕食扩大美国版图之际，却忽略了国内最重要的事情，那就是金融秩序的稳定。现在，越来越多的因素浮出水面，似乎在预示着2026年某些既 定的金融规则将被改写。 虽然美联储内部有着理事会成员与12家地区联储的制约，但两者形成收割世界的利器的客观条件已经具备。因此在美联储易主之前，欧洲率先打出一整套组 合拳。 丹麦养老基金此前宣布抛售1亿美元的美债，并表示美国"不再是良好信用对象"，而波兰央行增持150吨黄金。整个欧元区持有1.99万亿美元美债，占海外美 债整体的21.3%。所幸特朗普在格陵兰岛问题上踩了急刹车，否则大规模抛售潮可能会导致更让人恐慌的场面。 伦敦金价在过去一个月内上涨10.2%，未来在技术层面会不会突破5400美元/盎司，值得观察。欧洲为实现金融上的战略自主，其实还要面临政治协商、技术 突破以及用户习惯等等，可以说任重道远，但无疑是当前多极化秩序中最具挑战美国地位的力量。 因此，我们也不难发现，无论是东亚还是欧洲，相同的迹象是黄金已经在挑战美债地位，这背后的深层次原因是什么呢？ 美联储现任主席鲍威尔的任期将在今年5月份结束，那么任命权再次来到特朗普手中。虽然他没有"违宪"直接破坏美联储的独立 ...

Core Viewpoint - The article discusses the recent surge in gold prices, highlighting the rapid increase and the contrasting opinions among market participants regarding the sustainability of this trend [2][9]. Group 1: Gold Price Trends - Gold prices have seen significant increases, with the price rising from $1,000 to $2,000 over 12 years, $2,000 to $3,000 in nearly 5 years, $3,000 to $4,000 in 6 months, $4,000 to $5,000 in 3 months, and $5,000 to $5,500 in just 3 days [3][4][5][6][7]. - Recent predictions from major financial institutions have varied, with Citigroup initially forecasting a drop to $3,600-$3,800 by the end of 2026, but later revising to a target of $6,000 [9]. Group 2: Optimistic Perspectives - Many institutions are bullish on gold, with UBS raising its price targets to $6,200 for March, June, and September, while Deutsche Bank predicts a rise to $6,000 [18][19][20]. - The rationale includes geopolitical tensions and a trend towards de-dollarization, with a projected net increase in gold demand of 965 tons from central banks and ETFs between 2022 and 2026, against a supply increase of only 479 tons [22]. - High demand from ETFs and central banks is expected to continue, with Goldman Sachs noting a 500-ton increase in ETF holdings since early 2025 [23]. Group 3: Rational Perspectives - Some analysts argue that the current gold price reflects a speculative bubble, with significant participation from private investors using leverage [28][29]. - Concerns are raised about the sustainability of demand, with geopolitical risks potentially overstated and the actual gold reserves of central banks remaining unclear [30]. Group 4: Market Signals and Predictions - Key indicators to watch include central bank gold purchasing trends, with a significant drop in demand potentially signaling a market correction [34]. - The article emphasizes the uncertainty surrounding future gold prices, with various factors such as geopolitical stability and macroeconomic policies influencing demand [38].

如何理解此番金价巨震？到底是短暂回调，还是趋势反转？ 金属市场整体坐上"过山车" ◎记者 曾庆怡 北京时间1月29日至1月30日的48小时内，刚刷新历史纪录的国际金价、银价经历了惊心动魄的"过山 车"行情。1月30日，COMEX（纽约商品交易所）黄金期货和白银期货价格盘中分别失守5000美元/盎司 和100美元/盎司关口。 黄金巨震 短暂回调？趋势反转？ "在金价开始大跌的1月29日，从COMEX黄金期货的K线走势来看，资金在这个位置开始出现一定的分 歧，部分原本看多黄金的资金在这个位置出现离场。"齐盛期货贵金属首席分析师刘旭峰在接受上证报 记者采访时说，当日，全球最大的黄金ETF基金——SPDR黄金ETF持仓白银和黄金均出现减持迹象。 多重因素交织，导致交易情绪共振 上证报记者采访获悉，在北京时间本周四凌晨美联储议息会议后，短期利多逻辑暂时出尽，市场多头资 金选择获利了结，叠加市场对下一任美联储主席人选的猜测等多重因素，或共同促成了金价的历史性暴 跌。 "此次大幅波动或许主要缘于市场情绪的变化以及获利盘的回吐。"前海开源基金首席经济学家杨德龙对 上证报记者表示，尽管从长期来看，"去美元化"趋势以及央行和私人 ...

2026年1月29日，黄金市场彻底疯了。 就在这一天，国际金价像坐上了火箭，伦敦金现货价格收盘时冲到了5286.28美元一盎司，一天之内暴涨了115.04美 元，涨幅高达2.22%。 这还不是全部，国内金价同样疯狂，黄金T D报1186.85元一克，沪金期货更是冲到了1191.66元一克。 如果你去金店看看，老凤祥的 足金价格已经挂到了1620元一克。 从年初到现在，金价已经涨了超过22%。 所有人都在问同一个问题：这黄金，到底怎么了？ 你可能觉得这价格高得离谱，但市场告诉你，这还不是终点。 就在几天前的1月28日，现货黄金价格才刚刚首次突破了5200美元大关，最高报5233.93美元。 短短一天，它又往上窜了一大截。 更让人难以置信的是，回顾2025年，黄金全年涨幅超过64%，创下历史新高的次数高达50多次。 而进入2026年，这股势 头不仅没停，反而更猛了。 1月1日以来，金价从4400美元一路狂飙，冲破4500、4600、4700美元关口，开年累计涨幅轻松超过8%。 到了1月20日，现货黄 金价格一度涨至4701.48美元。 这感觉就像黄金彻底摆脱了地心引力。 金价这么疯涨，背后可不是一个原因那么简单。 ...

丨证券研究报告丨 [Table_Summary] 沃什的政策主张在于"降息+缩表、缩职能"，其目的在于重塑美联储公信力。但短期内顺利实施 的可能性并不高，原因在于："中期选举压力下，特朗普有迫切压降中长端利率的要求"和"缩表 推升期限溢价带动长端利率上行"之间存在冲突。这意味着，短期内降息有望、但缩表不可求。 而缩表推行不彻底，重塑美联储公信力就无从谈起，去美元化的趋势仍无法逆转。于市场而言， 短期"紧缩交易"预期不改长期"宽松交易"趋势。 分析师及联系人 世界经济与海外市场丨点评报告 [Table_Title] 沃什将带来什么：降息、缩表，缩职能 ——海外热点冷思考系列 3 [Table_Author] 报告要点 SAC：S0490520090001 SAC：S0490525070005 SFC：BUX667 于博 黄帅 敬成宇 请阅读最后评级说明和重要声明 %% %% %% %% research.95579.com 1 [Table_Title 沃什将带来什么：降息、缩表，缩职能 2] ——海外热点冷思考系列 3 美东时间 1 月 30 日，特朗普宣布提名凯文·沃什担任美联储主席。 事件评论 丨证券研究 ...

Core Viewpoint - The article discusses the recent surge in gold prices, which have surpassed $5,500 per ounce, and the implications for industrial metals like copper, suggesting that the dynamics driving these metals are more complex than traditional sector rotation theories [5][6][7]. Group 1: Market Dynamics - The current market is experiencing a significant shift, with copper evolving from a purely cyclical commodity to a strategic asset, influenced by macroeconomic changes and geopolitical risks [10][22]. - The weakening credibility of the US dollar, evidenced by its drop to a four-year low, is prompting investors to seek alternatives, with gold being the primary beneficiary of this sentiment [14][18]. - As central banks reconsider their asset allocations in light of dollar instability, copper is increasingly viewed as a strategic resource rather than just a trading commodity [20][21]. Group 2: Geopolitical Risks - Geopolitical tensions, such as military actions in the Middle East and US-European relations, are contributing to a global supply chain restructuring, which heightens the demand for safe-haven assets like gold and introduces a "geopolitical risk premium" into copper prices [23][27]. - The potential for supply disruptions due to political instability in major copper-producing regions (e.g., Chile, Peru, Congo) adds to the urgency of securing copper as a strategic asset [24][25]. Group 3: Supply and Demand Factors - Current copper inventories are rising globally, particularly in the London Metal Exchange (LME), due to weakened demand from China and higher domestic prices, leading to a surplus in the market [33][34]. - The phenomenon of "deep contango" in copper prices indicates a supply surplus, with immediate delivery prices significantly lower than future contracts, reflecting a lack of current demand [36]. - Despite short-term supply issues, long-term projections indicate a tightening supply due to insufficient investment in new copper mines and declining ore grades, which could support higher prices in the future [45][48]. Group 4: Future Outlook - The article suggests that copper's price dynamics will diverge from traditional inventory-driven models, as it begins to incorporate premiums for its strategic importance and inflation hedging capabilities [62]. - In the short term (1-3 months), copper prices are expected to experience volatility, influenced by macroeconomic factors and geopolitical events, while the long-term outlook remains bullish due to structural supply constraints and increasing demand from sectors like renewable energy and electric vehicles [64][68]. - The interplay between current supply realities and future demand expectations will create a complex pricing environment, necessitating close monitoring of both financial and industrial reports to understand copper's trajectory [74][75].

Core Viewpoint - The article discusses the recent surge in gold prices, which have surpassed $5,500 per ounce, and raises the question of whether industrial metals like copper will follow suit in a "catch-up" rally. However, it argues that the current situation is different from traditional market patterns of sector rotation or catch-up [3][4][5]. Group 1: Market Dynamics - The driving forces behind the rise in gold and silver prices are partly shared with those affecting copper, but the dynamics for copper are more complex [6][8]. - Copper has transitioned from being a purely cyclical commodity to a strategic asset, reflecting a significant change in market perception [9][10]. - The current market is experiencing friction in recognizing this transformation, leading to price volatility [10]. Group 2: Macro Factors Influencing Prices - The simultaneous attention on gold and copper stems from a dramatic shift in the macroeconomic backdrop, particularly the declining credibility of the US dollar, which has reached a four-year low [13][14]. - As trust in the dollar diminishes, investors are seeking alternatives, with gold being the primary beneficiary of this sentiment [15][16]. - Copper, priced in dollars, also benefits from dollar depreciation, as it becomes more expensive in dollar terms [19][20]. Group 3: Geopolitical Risks - The geopolitical landscape is increasingly unstable, with risks such as military deployments in the Middle East and tensions between the US and Europe contributing to market uncertainty [25][26]. - For gold, increased geopolitical turmoil drives up demand as a safe-haven asset, while for copper, geopolitical risks manifest in supply chain vulnerabilities due to political instability in major copper-producing regions [27][28]. - The potential for supply disruptions due to strikes or policy changes in these regions adds a "geopolitical risk premium" to copper prices [30][31]. Group 4: Supply and Demand Dynamics - The current copper market is characterized by weak demand, with rising global inventories and a lack of immediate consumption [38][40]. - Factors such as reduced demand from China and price discrepancies have led to increased copper stocks in warehouses [41][42]. - The current oversupply situation is reflected in significant discounts for immediate copper delivery compared to future contracts, indicating a lack of demand [44][45]. Group 5: Future Outlook - Despite the current weak demand, the long-term outlook for copper is driven by expectations of supply constraints and increasing demand from sectors like renewable energy and electric vehicles [60][63]. - The global copper supply is facing structural challenges, including insufficient long-term investment and declining ore grades, which are expected to limit future production [55][56]. - The anticipated demand from the global energy transition and infrastructure upgrades is expected to create a significant need for copper, potentially leading to a supply-demand imbalance in the future [62][66]. Group 6: Price Behavior and Market Sentiment - The article emphasizes that the current price movements of copper are influenced more by financial attributes and future expectations rather than immediate supply and demand realities [50][67]. - The market is currently in a tug-of-war between weak short-term realities and strong long-term expectations, leading to potential price volatility [68][70]. - The article suggests that copper prices may experience significant fluctuations in the short term, but a clearer upward trend is expected in the medium to long term as supply constraints become more apparent [84][90].

Core Viewpoint - The US dollar index is experiencing volatility, with short-term rebounds not altering the mid-term downtrend, driven by three main variables: Federal Reserve policy divergence, US fiscal concerns, and global de-dollarization [1][2] Group 1: Federal Reserve Policy Divergence - The Federal Reserve's decision to maintain interest rates and end consecutive rate cuts has led to a short-term dollar spike, but internal divisions among officials regarding potential rate cuts weaken the dollar's appeal [1] - Market expectations for two rate cuts within the year contribute to policy uncertainty, limiting the rebound momentum of the dollar [1] - Ongoing personnel and judicial issues within the Federal Reserve raise questions about its independence, further suppressing the dollar's mid-term outlook [1] Group 2: US Economic and Fiscal Concerns - Despite an upward revision of the 2026 GDP forecast by the Federal Reserve, high fiscal deficits and debt levels, along with recurring government shutdown risks, create credit concerns for US Treasury bonds [1] - The Trump administration's tacit approval of a declining dollar suggests further downside potential, with historical patterns indicating that intervention may only occur if the dollar falls below critical levels [1] Group 3: Global De-dollarization - The acceleration of global de-dollarization is intensifying pressure on the dollar, as multiple countries pursue local currency settlements and reduce reliance on the dollar [2] - The dollar's share in global foreign exchange reserves has declined to a nearly 30-year low, with central banks selling US Treasuries and increasing gold holdings, undermining the dollar's credit foundation [2] - Technical indicators show that the dollar's short-term rebound lacks strength, with key resistance levels and insufficient trading volume limiting bullish momentum [2] Group 4: Market Outlook - The dollar is expected to remain in a tug-of-war between bulls and bears, with long-term weakness likely to persist [2] - Short-term attention should be on Federal Reserve officials' speeches, core economic data, and government shutdown developments, as hawkish signals or positive data could lead to temporary rebounds [2] - However, the mid to long-term outlook remains constrained by policy divergence, fiscal concerns, and de-dollarization trends, making any rebound likely to be short-lived [2]