Group 1 - Morgan Stanley predicts that President Trump's tariff policy will initially raise inflation before slowing economic growth, leading the Federal Reserve to maintain a wait-and-see approach throughout 2025 [1][2] - The forecast indicates that the U.S. GDP growth will nearly stagnate, with core inflation expected to rise significantly above the Fed's 2% target by the end of the year [1][2] - The Fed's key overnight lending rate is expected to remain unchanged at 4.25% to 4.5%, with core PCE inflation projected to increase from 2.8% in February to 3.9% by year-end [1] Group 2 - Actual GDP growth is anticipated to slow to 0.8% in 2025 and 0.7% in 2026, with the Fed likely prioritizing inflation control over stimulating economic growth [2] - No interest rate cuts are expected until March 2026, with a potential reduction of the federal funds rate to a range of 2.5% to 2.75% following seven 25 basis point cuts [2] - A recession could alter this outlook, potentially leading to earlier and more significant rate cuts [2] Group 3 - The Federal Reserve is not expected to intervene to support the stock market amid recent sell-offs, with the S&P 500 index potentially needing to drop to 4600 points to find a bottom [3] - The government is not anticipated to provide stimulus measures to counteract the impact of tariffs, as fiscal policy is seen as part of the problem [3] - The weakening of the U.S. "exceptionalism" aura may lead to capital outflows from the U.S., affecting financial markets [3]

Report Summary 1. Overnight Market Trends - International oil prices dropped significantly, with the May contract of US crude falling 4.07% to $58.23 per barrel and the June contract of Brent crude falling 4.11% to $61.57 per barrel [2] - International precious metal futures generally rose, with COMEX gold futures up 0.83% at $2998.3 per ounce and COMEX silver futures up 0.49% at $29.75 per ounce [3] - London base metals all closed lower, with LME copper down 1.45% at $8588 per ton, LME zinc down 3.51% at $2553 per ton, etc [3] - CBOT agricultural futures contracts all closed higher, with soybean futures up 0.97% at 992.5 cents per bushel, corn futures up 0.97% at 469 cents per bushel, etc [3] - Most domestic commodity futures closed lower at night. Energy - chemicals, black - series, and base metals generally declined, while some agricultural products rose and some fell. Shanghai gold and silver rose [4][50][51] 2. Important News Macroeconomic News - China firmly opposes the US threat to impose an additional 50% tariff on China and will take counter - measures if the US tariff measures are implemented [6] - The US Chamber of Commerce is considering suing the Trump administration to block new tariffs [6] - Shanghai Stock Exchange held a symposium with 10 securities firms, and the firms are optimistic about the development of China's capital market [7] Energy and Chemical Futures - The cost of transporting diesel from the Rhine to inland Europe reached the highest seasonal level since at least 2009 [11] - As of April 7, domestic asphalt social and factory inventories increased slightly [11] - Goldman Sachs expects Brent and WTI crude oil prices to decline in December 2025 and December 2026 [12][53] - Russia's oil exports declined for the second consecutive week [14] Metal Futures - Some European investors are moving gold out of the US due to concerns about US trade policies [16] - In March 2025, China's lithium carbonate production increased, and the expected production in April decreased [16] - In March, global gold ETFs had significant inflows, and the total asset management scale reached a record high [16] Black - series Futures - A silicon - iron factory in Gansu stopped production for maintenance, reducing daily output [18] - Trump signed an executive order to promote the US coal industry [18] - China's 47 - port imported iron ore inventory decreased, while Australian and Brazilian port inventories increased [20] Agricultural Futures - Indonesia will adjust the export tax on crude palm oil to relieve the burden on exporters [22][54] - As of April 6, EU's imports of soybeans and rapeseeds increased, while palm oil imports decreased compared to the same period last year [22] - As of April 8, the port inventory of soybean oil decreased [23] 3. Financial Markets Finance - The Securities Association of China organized securities companies to conduct stress tests in 2025 [25] - In 2024, the securities industry's revenue and net profit increased, and self - operating business was the largest source of income [27] - Two new science - innovation board AI ETFs applied for registration, and the number of science - innovation board ETFs increased [27] - In March, the number of private securities fund products filed reached a new high [27] - Six companies' science - innovation comprehensive index ETF linked funds were established, bringing in incremental funds [27] - Some small and medium - sized banks and private banks in China adjusted deposit and large - deposit certificate interest rates [28] Real Estate - Multiple cities are researching and preparing real - estate market stabilization policies [29] - In March, the trading volume of new and second - hand houses in first - and second - tier cities increased significantly [31] - In the first quarter, the transfer fee of residential land in 300 cities increased, and the average premium rate rose [31] Industry - The "buy - now - get - refund" service for tax - free shopping will be promoted nationwide from April 8 [33] - The Ministry of Industry and Information Technology plans to accelerate the construction of a new information infrastructure standard system [33] - A new national standard for intelligent household appliances' voice interaction technology will be implemented on September 1, 2025 [34] - The scale of China's liquid - cooled server market is expected to grow rapidly from 2024 - 2029 [34] Overseas - Lawrence Summers believes that US tariff measures may lead to an economic recession and job losses [36] - Trump is promoting the US coal industry [36] - Canada will impose a 25% tariff on US cars [37] - Morgan Stanley lowered its forecast for US GDP growth in 2025 [37] - South Korea will hold early elections on June 3 and announce an additional budget plan [38] 4. International Stock Markets - Most Chinese concept stocks fell, while some rose [43] - Tariffs may cause a nearly 30% price increase for Apple's iPhone 16 Pro Max [44] - Micron Technology will charge additional fees related to tariffs from April 9 [45] - Leapmotor and Hesai Technology reached a strategic cooperation [46] - Porsche's global car deliveries decreased in Q1 2025 [47] - DHL Group will invest 2 billion euros in the life - science and healthcare logistics sector in the next five years [48] - Samsung Electronics' Q1 2025 operating profit slightly decreased, while sales increased [49] 5. Commodities - Most domestic commodity futures closed lower at night, with different trends in different sectors [4][50][51] - Shanghai plans to boost its commodity trade scale by 2027 [51] - The price of rice in Japanese supermarkets has been rising for 13 consecutive weeks [52] - US API crude oil inventory decreased last week [55] - The price of domestic battery - grade lithium carbonate reached a six - month low [56] - The Baltic Dry Index declined for 11 consecutive days [57] 6. Bonds - The bond market declined, and the central bank increased net investment [58] - The convertible bond index rose, with some bonds rising and some falling [59] - The Ministry of Finance will issue several types of treasury bonds [60] - Jiangsu encourages enterprises to issue innovation - related bonds with government subsidy [61] - Some bonds will be redeemed, and some companies' credit ratings were adjusted [61] 7. Foreign Exchange - The on - shore RMB against the US dollar declined on Tuesday [62] 8. Upcoming Events - Economic data releases include South Korea's March unemployment rate, Japan's March consumer confidence index, etc [65] - Policy - related events include China's central bank's open - market operations, New Zealand's and India's central bank interest - rate decisions, etc [67]

(图片由豆包AI生成 提示词风暴 熊 ) 昨夜，美股股市又经历了惊心动魄的一晚，主要新闻见闻君为大家总结如下： 美国财长贝森特称，正讨论优先与哪些地区达成关税协议。但白宫官员表示近期不会实施关税豁免，且确认高关税即将来袭。 美股巨震， 道指盘中高位狂泻超2000点，标普抹平超4%涨幅转跌 ，早盘涨超4%的纳指收跌超2%，"科技七姐妹"市值已从最高点下跌超过 5 万亿美元。 关税战有愈演愈烈之势，反对声音不断，衰退警告再响。 "马斯克圈子"难以接受高关税，马斯克也毫不掩饰的反对特朗普关税， 大骂白宫高级顾问纳瓦罗"真是个白痴"。 美国前财政部长萨默斯（Lawrence Summers）警告称， 关税或令美国衰退，失业人口恐增200万，美股料暴跌，B等生都知道。 高盛Peter Oppenheimer、Lilia Peytavin的策略团队发出了更为严峻的警告。他们认为，目前的股市抛售潮可能演变为一场持续时间更长的 周期性熊市，因为经济衰退风险正在攀升。 此外，周二美债市场再次遭遇剧烈抛售，10年期国债收益率飙升11个基点至4.3%， 过去两天这一指标已罕见大幅上升近30个基点。 这预示着可能出现类似2020年3 ...

【环球时报驻美国特约记者 冯亚仁 陈欣 文远】随着对美国政府滥施关税恐伤及自身的担忧越发强烈，越来越多的美国亿万富豪、企业高管甚至 特朗普的盟友站出来反对相关政策的实施。摩根大通首席执行官杰米·戴蒙7日在年度股东信中表示，近期的关税政策可能会推高通货膨胀率，并 导致许多人调升对美国经济陷入衰退的预期。此外，美国政府效率部负责人、企业家马斯克多次含蓄表达对新关税政策的不满。共和党国会议员 还提出议案，要求征税应由国会批准而非总统。美国《华盛顿邮报》称，此类批评声音是贸易战引发的经济动荡可能给特朗普留下持久政治创伤 的早期迹象，标志着特朗普的盟友在他担任总统的头两个半月里"普遍顺从"的局面发生变化。 投资人比尔·阿克曼则将批评矛头对准卢特尼克。阿克曼在社交平台上发帖称，卢特尼克对美国股市和经济崩溃漠不关心，选择这样的人做商务 部长是糟糕的主意。 " 关税就是税负，美国人正付出代价 " 就连特朗普的亿万富豪盟友埃隆·马斯克似乎也对关税不满。7日，他在社交平台上传了一段已故保守派经济学家米尔顿·弗里德曼的视频。在视频 中，弗里德曼详细分析了一支铅笔是如何由全球各地的材料和劳动力制造出来的。美媒普遍认为，这是马斯克在含 ...

智通财经4月9日电，美国哈佛大学经济学教授、美国前财政部长劳伦斯·萨默斯8日表示，由于特朗普政 府正在实施的关税措施，美国目前可能正朝着经济衰退的方向发展，可能导致约200万美国人失业，每 个家庭将面临至少5000美元的收入损失。 美国前财长：美国经济可能陷入衰退 可能导致200万人失业 ...

古特雷斯重申联合国立场：贸易战没有赢家 智通财经4月9日电，在回答记者提问时，联合国秘书长古特雷斯重申联合国立场，贸易战没有赢家。古 特雷斯表示，贸易战极其负面，没有人能从中获胜，大家往往都是输家。古特雷斯说，尤其担心最脆弱 的发展中国家，因为对它们来说，影响将会更加严重。古特雷斯表示，他希望不会发生经济衰退，因为 一旦衰退，其后果将是灾难性的，尤其会严重打击全球最贫困的人群。 ...

前美国财长萨默斯：美国爆发经济衰退的风险"超过不发生的可能性"。 ...

黄金前瞻关税政策激发衰退担忧，美联储艰难应对，黄金多头再发力？点击观看金十研究员文成直播分 析 相关链接 ...

荷兰国际：欧佩克+或暂停或逆转增产 金十数据4月8日讯，荷兰国际分析师表示，如果油价继续下跌，欧佩克+可能会决定暂停甚至逆转其增 产计划。分析师Warren Patterson和Ewa Manthey表示："自4月2日以来，我们看到原油价格整体走低，这 表明市场正在定价经济衰退的可能性加大。"欧佩克及其盟友上周宣布，5月份的日产量将增加41.1万 桶，令市场感到意外，进一步拖累了受到关税打击的油价。分析师表示："如果下行压力持续下去，欧 佩克+的行动可能会非常短暂。""沙特可能不希望看到其财政收支平衡水平与当前油价之间的差距进一 步扩大。" ...

On April 2, the Trump administration roiled financial markets by introducing wide-ranging tariffs on most of America's trading partners. In addition to a baseline 10% tariff on all imports, the government is expected to start collecting levies of up to 49% on some countries in a move that could dramatically hurt global trade and economic growth.Stocks are in a freefall, with the S&P 500 down around 15% year to date. However, within the turmoil, some companies are holding up better than others and may make g ...