Core Insights - The comprehensive tariff plan by U.S. President Trump has triggered significant concerns about an economic recession, leading to a substantial sell-off in base metals on the London Metal Exchange (LME) [1][3] - Copper futures recorded their largest single-day drop since the onset of the COVID-19 pandemic in 2020, with a decline of $586.50 or 6.26%, closing at $8,780 per ton [1][2] - The overall sentiment in the market has been severely impacted, with predictions of a 60% chance of a global recession by the end of the year, up from a previous estimate of 40% [4][5] Summary by Category Market Performance - LME three-month copper fell to $8,780 per ton, marking a significant decline of over 10% for the week [1][2] - Other base metals also experienced declines, with three-month aluminum down $69.50 or 2.84%, three-month zinc down $56.50 or 2.08%, and three-month nickel down $974 or 6.19% [2][7] Economic Impact - Dan Smith from Amalgamated Metal Trading noted that metals reliant on economic growth are currently facing disastrous performance due to tariff concerns [3] - Federal Reserve Chairman Jerome Powell expressed shock at the extent of the tariffs, indicating that their economic impact may be greater than previously anticipated, including potential inflation and slowed economic growth [5][6] Regulatory Developments - The U.S. government announced a 34% tariff on all imports from China, effective April 10, 2025, which is seen as a unilateral and bullying approach that undermines international trade rules [3] - The Chinese government responded by implementing export controls on certain rare earth materials, further escalating trade tensions [4]

Core Insights - Domestic fuel prices in China have increased significantly, with a rise of 230 yuan/ton effective from April 2, leading to 92 and 95 octane gasoline prices reaching approximately 7.45 yuan/liter and 7.95 yuan/liter respectively [1][3] - The next fuel price adjustment is scheduled for April 17, marking the eighth adjustment of the year, with current trends indicating a potential increase of 150 yuan/ton based on the average crude oil price [3][5] - Recent fluctuations in international oil prices have been dramatic, with a notable drop of over 12.5% in just two days, influenced by various economic factors including increased tariffs and rising U.S. oil inventories [5][7] Price Adjustments - The recent price hike in domestic fuel is attributed to a 2.91% change in domestic crude oil prices, with the first working day of the new pricing cycle reflecting a significant increase [3] - The anticipated price adjustment on April 17 could see a reversal in trends, with projections suggesting a decrease of nearly 200 yuan/ton due to the recent drop in international oil prices [5][7] Market Dynamics - The decline in oil prices is driven by multiple factors, including unexpected increases in U.S. tariffs, rising crude oil inventories, and OPEC+ plans to increase production capacity significantly [5][7] - Market sentiment remains pessimistic, with fears of a global economic slowdown and potential further declines in oil prices, impacting future domestic fuel pricing strategies [7] Regional Price Overview - Current gasoline prices across various regions in China show slight variations, with 92 octane gasoline priced around 7.45 to 7.63 yuan/liter and 95 octane gasoline ranging from 7.90 to 8.15 yuan/liter [8]

Market Overview - Global markets experienced a severe sell-off during the week of March 31 to April 5, with major stock indices and commodities facing significant declines, marking it as a "black week" [1] - The Nasdaq Composite fell over 10%, entering bear market territory, while the Dow Jones Industrial Average dropped 7.86%, and the S&P 500 fell 9.08% [1][4] - The Cboe Volatility Index (VIX) surged over 88%, reaching its highest level since March 2020, indicating heightened market fear [1] U.S. Stock Market - The "Big Tech" companies collectively lost $1.4 trillion in market value, the largest single-week decline on record, with notable drops in Nvidia, Apple, Meta, and Amazon, all down over 10% [1] - The S&P 500 index is down 13.73% year-to-date, while the Nasdaq is down 19.28% [4] European Stock Market - The Eurozone STOXX 600 index fell 8.44% for the week, marking its largest decline since 2020, and is down nearly 11.9% from its March 3 high [2] - Major European indices such as Germany's DAX and France's CAC40 both dropped 8.1% [2][4] Asia-Pacific Stock Market - The Nikkei 225 index fell below 34,000 points, with a weekly decline of 9%, while the South Korean Composite Index dropped 3.62% [2] - The Indian SENSEX30 index saw a decline of 2.65% for the week [2][4] Commodity Market - International crude oil prices hit four-year lows, with WTI crude down 10.15% to $62.32 per barrel, and Brent crude down 9.21% to $66.06 per barrel [3] - Precious metals experienced widespread declines, with gold down 1.52% and silver down 13.26% for the week [2][4] Economic Outlook - The probability of a recession in the U.S. has increased, with estimates rising from 25% to 30-35% according to S&P Global [7] - Concerns over the impact of tariffs on trade and economic growth have led to a cautious outlook among investors, particularly regarding corporate earnings forecasts [11][12]

Global Market Performance - Global stock markets experienced significant declines over the past week, with all 19 major indices falling, particularly the Italian FTSE MIB and Nasdaq, which dropped over 10% [3] - The S&P 500, Nikkei 225, German DAX, and French CAC40 also saw declines exceeding 5%, while China's A-share Shanghai Composite Index was the most resilient, only slightly down by 0.28% [3] Technology Sector Impact - Major technology companies, including Nvidia, Apple, Amazon, and Facebook, faced substantial losses, each dropping over 10% in the past week, with Apple hitting a nearly one-year low and others reaching six-month lows [6] Commodity Market Trends - The commodity market experienced volatility, particularly in metals and energy, with COMEX silver and copper plunging over 14%. NYMEX crude oil and ICE Brent oil fell by 10.15% and 9.21%, respectively, while gold remained relatively stable with a decline of less than 2% [9] Tariff Policy Analysis - Analysts suggest that the "reciprocal tariffs" may signal the beginning of a new wave of market turmoil rather than a resolution, emphasizing that the focus should be on negotiation rather than the direct economic impact of tariffs [11] - China's position in the tariff negotiations is strengthening due to its industrial upgrades and international expansion, allowing it to focus on its economic development without being overly influenced by U.S. tariff policies [11] Economic Outlook and Ratings Adjustments - UBS Global Wealth Management downgraded its rating on U.S. stocks from "attractive" to "neutral," significantly lowering the S&P 500 year-end target from 6400 to 5800 points due to profit forecast and valuation risks [12] - Other investment banks, including Barclays and Deutsche Bank, warned that continued implementation of tariffs could increase the risk of a recession in the U.S. economy this year [12]

Group 1 - The US stock market experienced its worst week since March 2020, with major indices dropping over 5.5% [2] - The Nasdaq entered a technical bear market, closing down over 20% from its historical peak, while the S&P 500 recorded its largest weekly decline since March 2020 [3] - The market capitalization of US stocks evaporated by over $5 trillion in two days, with a total loss of nearly $8 trillion since January 2017 [3] Group 2 - President Trump announced a tariff increase on April 2, leading to market turmoil and concerns about a global economic recession, with potential for further volatility before the April 9 deadline for reciprocal tariffs [3] - Federal Reserve Chairman Jerome Powell indicated that the impact of tariffs on the economy could be greater than expected, emphasizing the need to maintain stable inflation expectations [7] - Morgan Stanley's chief US economist projected a contraction in real GDP due to the pressure from tariffs, revising the growth forecast for the year to -0.3% from a previous estimate of 1.3% [8]

Core Viewpoint - The U.S. stock market experienced a significant decline due to escalating trade tensions and concerns over inflation, leading to a loss of over $3 trillion in market value for major tech companies in just two days [1][9]. Group 1: Market Performance - The U.S. stock indices fell by more than 5%, marking one of the worst trading days in recent years, with the S&P 500 dropping 5.97% and the Dow Jones Industrial Average plummeting 2,231 points [4][9]. - The technology sector was particularly hard hit, with the "Tech Seven" companies losing over $2 trillion in market capitalization in a single day [13]. - European markets also suffered, with the Stoxx 600 index falling 5.12%, the largest drop since the onset of the COVID-19 pandemic [14][17]. Group 2: Economic Indicators - Federal Reserve Chairman Jerome Powell indicated that inflation pressures from unilateral tariffs could persist for several quarters, leading to a cautious stance on monetary policy [8][18]. - Despite a stronger-than-expected increase in non-farm payrolls, the unemployment rate unexpectedly rose to 4.5%, raising concerns about the labor market [8][18]. - The market is closely watching upcoming U.S. CPI data and Federal Reserve meeting minutes for any signs of policy shifts that could impact market stability [18]. Group 3: Sector-Specific Impacts - Major tech stocks like Tesla and Apple saw significant declines, with Tesla dropping 10.4% and Apple falling 7.3% [11][13]. - The semiconductor sector also faced severe losses, with the Philadelphia Semiconductor Index down 7.6% [13]. - Commodity markets experienced widespread declines, with crude oil prices falling nearly 10% and gold prices dropping over 3% [13]. Group 4: Global Economic Outlook - The ongoing trade war and the Fed's policy deadlock have led to a loss of investor confidence in global economic recovery [17]. - Analysts warn that continued trade protectionism and delayed monetary policy responses could push the global economy into a recession [18].

Core Viewpoint - The announcement of sweeping tariffs by President Trump has led to significant declines in U.S. bank stocks, raising concerns about a potential global trade war and its negative impact on economic growth and inflation [1][6]. Banking Industry Impact - The Dow Jones Industrial Average fell 3.9%, the S&P 500 dipped 4.8%, and the Nasdaq Composite declined 5.9%, with bank stocks performing worse than these major benchmarks [2]. - The KBW Nasdaq Bank Index slid 9.8%, and the S&P Regional Banks Select Industry Index tanked 10.3%, indicating severe pressure on the banking sector [2]. - Major banks such as Citigroup and Bank of America saw their shares plunge more than 10%, while Morgan Stanley, Goldman Sachs, and Wells Fargo declined over 9% [3]. Tariff Details - President Trump announced tariffs ranging from 10% to 50% on imports from various countries, with Chinese products facing a 34% tariff, the European Union at 20%, and Japan at 24% [4][5]. - These tariffs are expected to push overall tariff rates to their highest level in a century, potentially slowing economic growth and reducing investment [6]. Economic Outlook - The new tariffs are likely to complicate the Federal Reserve's efforts to bring inflation down to its 2% target, raising fears of a recession that could negatively impact banks [6][7]. - A potential drop in loan demand and an increase in delinquency rates, particularly in consumer loans, could harm banks' asset quality [7]. - Investment banking income may remain under pressure as companies delay acquisitions due to tariff uncertainties [7]. Future Considerations - Entering 2025, banks had anticipated benefiting from a healthy economy and favorable interest rates, but the outlook has changed dramatically due to the tariffs [8]. - The probability of prolonged market volatility necessitates close monitoring of further tariff plans and broader economic indicators by investors [8]. - Currently, major banks like Bank of America, Morgan Stanley, Citigroup, Goldman Sachs, and Wells Fargo hold a Zacks Rank 3 (Hold) [9].

以下文章来源于财联社 ，作者潇湘 财联社 . 财联社是上海报业集团主管主办，定位资本市场报道财经通讯社，以"准确、快速、权威、专业"为准则，提供7x24小时金融信息服务。 来源|财联社 随着特朗普的对等关税"黑天鹅"，在隔夜彻底令全球市场陷入了灾难性的"黑色星期四"，今晚这个美国"非农夜"，华尔街或许已再也经受不起任何 意外的打击…… 周四美股市场的大跌无疑是史诗级的 ——标普500指数全天下跌了4.8%，为2020年6月11日以来的最大单日跌幅，当时人们对第二波新冠肺炎疫情 的担忧粉碎了迅速恢复疫情前生活的希望。而除那一天外，本世纪只有4天抛售幅度比昨日更严重，而且全部发生在疫情初期的2020年3月。目前， 标普500指数已经跌至了去年8月份以来的最低水平。 可以说，在经历了昨日的关税暴击后，投资者的交投信心眼下已变得格外敏感而脆弱。 贸易战引发的全球经济衰退威胁，已被认为是当前金融市场 上主要的尾部风险。而假如在关税噩耗传出前，美国经济数据就已经呈现滑坡态势，则无疑可能进一步激发市场人士的抛售意愿。 那么，今晚的美 国3月非农就业报告，又是否会扮演类似落井下石、火上浇油的角色呢？ 01 非农前瞻：今晚市场 ...

Group 1: Report Industry Investment Rating No relevant content provided. Group 2: Core Views of the Report - Trump set a 10% benchmark tariff for all countries and higher reciprocal tariffs for 50 countries with large trade deficits with the US, which account for 70% of the US total imports in 2024. After the reciprocal tariff increase, the average US tariff rate will rise by 27%, significantly increasing the risk of US economic recession and secondary inflation. This will also increase China's export pressure, and China's export growth rate may turn negative in 2025 [3]. - The performance of US major asset classes remains uncertain, depending on the US economic resilience, other countries' counter - measures, etc. Other countries may choose monetary easing and currency depreciation, which will support the US dollar to gradually bottom out, and US Treasury bonds may tend to flatten. Gold and inflation - protected bonds are favored, while US stocks are bearish, and there are both bullish and bearish impacts on the US dollar and US Treasury bonds [3]. - In the short term, domestic risk - aversion sentiment prevails in China. The bond market may break through in April, and policy statements should be monitored. The export pressure caused by tariffs has increased significantly, leading to a pattern of strong bonds and weak stocks in the short term [3]. Group 3: Summary by Related Catalogs Trump's Tariff Policy Details - On April 2, Trump set a 10% benchmark tariff for all countries and higher reciprocal tariffs for 50 countries with large trade deficits. The reciprocal tariffs are "equivalent" but calculated by considering factors such as tariffs, unfair taxes, non - tariff barriers, and exchange - rate manipulation. Canada and Mexico are excluded from the reciprocal tariff list, and for China, the reciprocal tariff may be cumulative with the previous 20% tariff due to the fentanyl issue, reaching 54% [3][5]. Impact on the US Economy - The reciprocal tariff increase will raise the US average tariff rate by 27%, pulling up core PCE inflation by 2.7% in the next year and dragging down the US real GDP by 1.1% - 2.4%. It also increases the risk of recession and the possibility of wage - inflation spiral and secondary inflation, which restricts the Fed's dovish attitude [3][9][10]. Impact on China - The US reciprocal tariff means greater export pressure for China. It is estimated that China's export growth rate in 2025 may turn negative. The additional 26% tariff on China compared with other major US trading partners may lead to a 4.6 - percentage - point decline in China's export year - on - year and a 0.9 - percentage - point drag on GDP. Considering the global manufacturing PMI decline, the export growth rate may be even lower [3][11]. Impact on Asset Classes - For US assets, the performance is uncertain. Other countries' possible monetary easing and currency depreciation may support the US dollar to bottom out, and US Treasury bonds may flatten. Gold and inflation - protected bonds are favored, while US stocks are bearish, and there are both bullish and bearish impacts on the US dollar and US Treasury bonds [3][22]. - In China, in the short term, risk - aversion sentiment prevails, resulting in a pattern of strong bonds and weak stocks. The bond market may break through in April, and the 10 - year Treasury bond interest rate is expected to be in the range of 1.7% - 1.85% [3][23]. Market Pricing Pattern Changes - The market's pricing pattern for tariff news has changed from a strong - dollar, weak - stock - and - bond scenario to a strong - Treasury - bond, weak - dollar - and - US - stock scenario, which is a shift from dollar - safe - haven trading to US - recession trading. The reasons include increased policy uncertainty, a weaker - than - expected tax - cut framework, and excessive tariff increases on Mexico and Canada [20].

Core Viewpoint - The article discusses the significant impact of President Trump's new tariff policy on risk assets, particularly the cryptocurrency market, leading to a sharp decline in prices and a surge in gold prices as investors seek safe-haven assets [1][4][7]. Group 1: Cryptocurrency Market Reaction - On April 2, President Trump announced "reciprocal tariffs," exceeding market expectations, which led to a massive sell-off in risk assets, including cryptocurrencies [1][4]. - Bitcoin plummeted over $4,000, dropping from $86,900 to $82,100, while Ethereum fell from $1,950 to $1,790 [1][4]. - The total liquidation in the cryptocurrency market reached $500 million within 24 hours, affecting over 160,000 traders [1][5]. Group 2: Gold Market Surge - Concurrently, funds flowed into the gold market, with spot gold prices surpassing $3,160 per ounce, setting a new historical high [2][7]. - Analysts suggest that Trump's aggressive tariff policies may slow U.S. economic growth and increase inflation, driving investors towards gold as a hedge against instability [7][8]. Group 3: Economic Implications of Tariffs - Trump's tariffs, which include a 10% baseline tariff and higher rates for specific countries, are expected to raise consumer prices and potentially lead to a recession, with a 40% probability of economic downturn predicted by JPMorgan [4][8]. - The tariffs could increase U.S. personal consumption expenditure prices by 1.7% to 2.1%, depending on retaliatory measures from other countries, and could reduce actual GDP growth by 0.6% to 1% [8]. Group 4: Global Reactions to Tariffs - The European Union and various trade partners have expressed intentions to retaliate against the U.S. tariffs, indicating a potential escalation in trade tensions [9][10][11]. - Leaders from Australia, Japan, and South Korea have voiced concerns over the implications of the tariffs on their economies and are considering countermeasures [10][11].