Economic Growth Forecasts - Major international financial institutions, including Goldman Sachs and JPMorgan, have raised their 2025 economic growth forecasts for China by 0.6 to 0.7 percentage points, citing positive effects from a series of incremental policies implemented since September 2024 [1][2] Monetary and Fiscal Policies - The easing of monetary policy by the People's Bank of China from September to December 2024 is highlighted as a key driver for economic support, with a projected fiscal deficit rate exceeding 4% for the first time during the upcoming Two Sessions [2] Foreign Investment and Market Dynamics - China's continuous policy openness and improvements in the business environment have led to a 12.1% year-on-year increase in newly established foreign-invested enterprises, totaling 18,832 in the first four months [3] - The Hong Kong IPO market has raised a total of $9 billion since 2025, reflecting a 320% year-on-year increase, indicating strong interest from international investors [4] Resilience and Confidence in the Economy - Many foreign financial institutions emphasize the "resilience" of the Chinese economy, noting that despite external challenges, domestic growth remains robust [5] - The strong technological innovation capabilities of Chinese enterprises are viewed as a critical factor for continued foreign investment confidence [8] Focus on Technology and Consumption - The technology and consumption sectors are identified as major growth areas, attracting global capital and showcasing significant potential [9] - Changes in consumer behavior, including the rise of domestic brands and innovative consumption patterns, are emerging as new highlights in the consumption sector [14][17]

Group 1 - China's economic growth has been remarkable, achieving an average of 9.7% from 1978 to 1995 and projected to maintain an average of 8.3% until 2024, making it the fastest-growing country during these periods [1][3] - By 2024, China's GDP per capita is expected to reach $13,445, nearing the high-income threshold of $14,005, indicating significant economic progress [1] - China's growth has positively impacted not only East Asian economies but also contributed to global economic recovery [1] Group 2 - The sustained high growth in China post-reform is attributed to continuous improvements in productivity and the emergence of new high-value industries, leveraging the advantages of latecomers [3] - The shift towards labor-intensive industries after 1978 allowed China to effectively utilize its comparative advantages, which is a key reason for its rapid economic development [3] Group 3 - The recurring "China collapse theory" stems from historical failures of many developing countries that adopted capital-intensive import substitution strategies, leading to resource misallocation and corruption [4][5] - Contrary to mainstream economic theories that advocate for marketization and privatization, China's gradual dual-track reform has resulted in stable and rapid growth, avoiding the stagnation seen in other countries [5] Group 4 - Future economic prospects for China remain optimistic, with potential for over 8% growth until 2035 and 6% growth until 2049, despite challenges like aging population and trade tensions [6] - If growth expectations are met, by 2049, China's GDP per capita could reach half of that of the U.S., and its economic size could be double that of the U.S., enhancing its global economic position [6]

Core Viewpoint - International investors are increasingly focused on Chinese assets, as evidenced by multiple foreign institutions hosting "China-themed" forums and raising GDP growth forecasts for China by 2025 [1][2]. Group 1: Economic Growth Predictions - Foreign institutions have recently raised their GDP growth forecasts for China in 2025 due to a decrease in external disturbances and increased internal growth policies [1]. - Morgan Stanley's chief economist for China, Qiang Xing, has raised GDP growth predictions for 2025 and 2026, anticipating a fiscal package worth 500 billion to 1 trillion yuan to support infrastructure [2]. - Nomura's chief economist for China, Ting Lu, also revised the GDP growth forecast for 2025, citing stronger-than-expected retail data supported by the "trade-in" policy [2]. Group 2: Capital Market Outlook - There is an expectation of long-term capital returning to the Chinese stock market, with UBS's head of China equity strategy, Zonghao Wang, indicating that foreign capital inflow will be a key trading logic in the coming quarters [3]. - Goldman Sachs has raised its 12-month target for the MSCI China Index and the CSI 300 Index to 84 points and 4600 points, respectively, indicating potential upside of 11% and 17% [3]. - Morgan Stanley has also adjusted its target indices for major Chinese stock indices, forecasting 78 points for the MSCI China Index and 4000 points for the CSI 300 Index by June 2026 [3]. Group 3: Earnings Performance - The MSCI China Index showed strong performance last year, with actual EPS growth reaching 16%, surpassing the initial expectation of 14%, particularly in the internet and healthcare sectors [4]. - The market's consensus EPS growth expectation for the MSCI China Index this year is 8%, with leading internet companies continuing to perform well [4]. - Predictions for the MSCI China Index's baseline and optimistic scenarios for this year are set at 80 points and 89 points, respectively, while the CSI 300 Index is forecasted at 4150 points and 4420 points [4].

1. 会谈声明超出预期，利好中国经济与金融市场：调整后的30%关税与4月份之前水平相近，使得出口商、进口商以及 终端消费者更易分摊成本以消化关税压力。 来源：德银研究 3. 中国经济增长预测有进一步上调的空间：随着关税政策的更新，熊奕预计今年中国经济增长或有上调的空间，具体 调整幅度仍将取决于未来双方对话的进展与合作成果。熊奕指出，尽管此前关税大幅上调，但中国4月份出口依然保 持强劲韧性。如今大部分关税已暂停，预计关税对出口增长的实际影响将远低于预期。展望未来，有三个关键事件值 得重点关注。其一，中美是否能持续开展双边对话，从而进一步缓和紧张局势；其二，贸易缓和能否对中国商业和消 费者信心产生积极影响，毕竟在贸易紧张局势升级前，相关市场信心已呈现改善态势；其三，七月份90天暂停期结束 后的走势将如何发展。 经过两天坦诚、富有建设性的高层会谈，中美双方已达成重要共识，将大幅缓和经贸紧张局势。 4. 短期内，政策面的宽松环境仍将持续 ：中国人民银行将继续实施上周公布的宽松措施。财政部预计也将在未来几个 月加速国债发行节奏并加大财政支出力度。预计政府可能会在年中之前评估经济表现并动态调整政策，进而决定是否 需要修订 ...

Group 1 - The core point of the news is the announcement of a significant reduction in bilateral tariff levels between China and the US, along with the establishment of a mechanism for ongoing economic and trade negotiations, which has led several overseas institutions to consider raising their economic growth forecasts for China in 2025 [1] - The April trade data revealed a nearly 20% month-on-month drop in China's exports to the US, while total exports continued to grow, indicating China's resilience and ability to gain market share from other regions [1] - The A500 index, which tracks major A-share companies, showed strong performance with significant gains in stocks such as Dongfang Risen, Huada Gene, and Daqo New Energy, reflecting a positive market sentiment [1] Group 2 - The A50 index, which focuses on large-cap leading stocks across various industries, benefits from the trend of increasing market concentration due to supply-side reforms, making these stocks more attractive during earnings disclosure periods [2] - The shift of A-share market dynamics from being retail-driven to institutionally dominated is supported by the continuous inflow of long-term funds, such as pensions and insurance, which prefer low-volatility, high-dividend, and stable profit assets [2] - The long-term holding characteristics of institutional funds provide stability to the market, enhancing its resilience and long-term investment value [2]

Core Viewpoint - The speech by Lin Yifu emphasizes the potential for continued economic growth in China, despite facing challenges such as aging population and US-China trade tensions, suggesting a growth rate of 5% to 6% until 2035 and 3% to 4% from 2036 to 2049 [3][4][5] Group 1: Economic Growth Potential - Lin Yifu highlights that China's growth potential can be measured by the gap in GDP per capita compared to the US, indicating that China has a significant "latecomer advantage" [3][4] - Historical data shows that from 1978 to 2024, China maintained an average growth rate of 8.3%, with GDP per capita reaching $13,445, nearing the high-income threshold [4][5] - Despite challenges, Lin Yifu believes that China's advantages in talent, domestic market, and complete industrial chain can support a sustained growth rate of around 5% [3][4] Group 2: Historical Context and Economic Strategy - Lin Yifu discusses the historical context of China's economic growth, noting that from 1978 onwards, China shifted from a heavy industry focus to labor-intensive industries, leveraging its comparative advantages [4][8] - The narrative of "China collapse theory" is addressed, with Lin Yifu arguing that many developing countries failed due to misaligned economic strategies, while China succeeded through a gradual dual-track reform approach [5][6] - The book "Interpreting China's Economy" is presented as a comprehensive analysis of China's economic development, emphasizing its theoretical, historical, and practical coherence [7][8] Group 3: Publication and Impact - The book "Interpreting China's Economy" has been published in multiple languages and is considered essential reading for understanding China's economic landscape [7][10] - The upcoming edition, set for release in January 2025, will be the fifth version, reflecting ongoing developments in China's economy [10]

Core Viewpoint - The Chinese economy is demonstrating resilience and vitality, with a first-quarter GDP growth of 5.4%, indicating a positive trend despite a high base from the previous year [1][2]. Economic Performance - In the first quarter, China's GDP grew by 5.4% year-on-year, which is an acceleration of 0.4 percentage points compared to the previous year [1]. - The contribution rate of domestic demand to economic growth increased by 6.3 percentage points compared to the last quarter of the previous year, highlighting its role as a stabilizing force [2]. Innovation and Development - Significant growth in innovation sectors was noted, with production increases in servers (66.3%), new energy vehicles (45.4%), and 3D printing equipment (44.9%) [2]. - The application of large models in various fields, including electronics and automotive, is driving demand for computing and intelligent products [2]. Environmental and Social Progress - The average concentration of PM2.5 in cities decreased by 4.8% year-on-year, and the proportion of surface water quality in categories I-III improved to 91% [2]. - Rural residents' per capita disposable income increased by 6.5% year-on-year, surpassing the national average growth by 0.9 percentage points [2]. Trade and International Relations - The unilateral tariffs imposed by the U.S. are viewed as a violation of international trade rules and are expected to have a negative impact globally [3]. - China is committed to defending its rights and maintaining international fairness and justice in response to these tariffs, emphasizing cooperation with the majority of countries [3].

Report Summary 1. Industry Investment Rating - The report gives a “slightly long” rating for Treasury bonds in the macro and financial sector [1] 2. Core View - The first - quarter economic data of China is good with GDP growing 5.4% year - on - year, better than the expected 5.2%. However, due to the US tariff increase, the Chinese economy will face challenges in the second quarter, and domestic incremental hedging policies may be introduced. Treasury futures may fluctuate in the short - term, and trading - type investors are advised to conduct band operations [3] 3. Summary by Relevant Catalogs 3.1 Market Review - On Thursday, Treasury futures opened higher across the board. After rising in the morning, they declined. By the close, the 30 - year Treasury futures main contract TL2506 fell 0.08%, the 10 - year T2506 fell 0.09%, the 5 - year TF2506 fell 0.11%, and the 2 - year TS2506 fell 0.05% [1] 3.2 Important Information - **Open market**: On Thursday, the central bank conducted 2180 billion yuan of 7 - day reverse repurchase operations, with 2455 billion yuan of reverse repurchases maturing, resulting in a net withdrawal of 275 billion yuan [1] - **Funds market**: On Thursday, the overnight interest rate in the inter - bank funds market declined slightly. The weighted average of DR001 was 1.60% (1.63% the previous day), and the weighted average of DR007 was 1.72% (1.65% the previous day) [1] - **Cash bond market**: On Thursday, the closing yields of inter - bank Treasury bonds fluctuated narrowly. The 2 - year yield rose 0.56 BP to 1.48%, the 5 - year rose 0.91 BP to 1.55%, the 10 - year rose 0.29 BP to 1.66%, and the 30 - year rose 0.48 BP to 1.93% [1] - **Treasury bond issuance**: On April 24, the Ministry of Finance issued three special Treasury bonds, including 165 billion yuan of 5 - year bonds with a weighted winning yield of 1.45%, 50 billion yuan of 20 - year bonds with a weighted winning yield of 1.98%, and 71 billion yuan of 30 - year bonds with a weighted winning yield of 1.88% [1] - **Sino - US trade**: As of April 24, there were no Sino - US economic and trade negotiations. The US should cancel all unilateral tariffs on China through equal dialogue [1] - **MLF operation**: The central bank will conduct 600 billion yuan of 1 - year MLF operations on April 25, with 100 billion yuan of MLF maturing this month, resulting in a net injection of 500 billion yuan [1][3] 3.3 Market Logic - The good first - quarter economic data is due to policy support and export rush. But the US tariff increase will pose challenges to the Chinese economy in the second quarter. The issuance of special Treasury bonds on April 24 did not significantly impact the funds market. The Wande All - A Index fell slightly on Thursday, and Treasury futures declined in the afternoon. The high Sino - US tariffs are difficult to resolve in the short - term [3] 3.4 Trading Strategy - Trading - type investors are advised to conduct band operations [3]

期货研究院 格林大华期货研究院专题报告 宏观经济 2025年4月16日 | 研究员： 刘洋 | | | --- | --- | | 从业资格证号：F3063825 | | | 交易咨询证号：Z0016580 | | | 联系方式： | liuyang18036@greendh. | | com | | 证监许可【2011】1288号 成文时间：2025年4月16日星期三 更多精彩内容请关注格林大华期货官方微信 首季开门红 二季迎挑战 摘要 格林大华期货交易咨询业务资格： 一季度中国GDP同比增长5.4%，市场预期5.2%，去年四季度GD P同比增长5.4%。从环比看，今年一季度环比增长1.2%，延续了去年 三季度以来较好的环比增长，实现了开门红。1-3月份，全国固定资 产投资同比增长4.2%，市场预期4.0%，1-2月份为4.1%。分类来看， 1-3月广义基建投资（含电力）同比增长11.5%，市场预期增长7.2% ，1-2月增长9.95%。1-3月制造业投资同比增长9.1%，市场预期增长 8.9%，1-2月增长9.0%。1-3月份，全国房地产开发投资同比下降9. 9%，市场预期下降10.2%，1-2月下降9. ...