美联储降息对医药行业影响 20250908 摘要 鲍威尔强调就业市场下修风险，美国就业数据多次大幅下修通常出现在 经济疲弱时期，暗示经济面临潜在挑战。 美国劳动力市场供需同步走弱，失业率虽稳定但风险加大，经济增速放 缓受消费拖累，通胀上行风险相对可控。 美联储回归灵活通胀目标框架，删除有效利率下限，强调充分就业，预 示货币政策将更宽松，应对经济下行风险。 耶鲁大学测算关税可能额外推升核心通胀 1.5~1.6 个百分点，整体通胀 上涨 1.3~1.4 个百分点，影响有限，年内降息概率较大。 8 月美国非农就业数据远不及预期，失业率上升，9 月降息必要性增加， 期货市场隐含数据预测年内降息 75 个基点，利好科技股。 美联储降息周期形成全球流动性泛滥，海外投资者交易美国降息预期将 传导至中国市场，利好中国科技股和创新药板块。 中国创新药具备高级工程师红利、低成本和高效研发优势，肿瘤免疫领 域价格优势明显，海外 MNC 面临专利压力，加速国内扫货。 Q&A 美联储降息对美国经济的影响是什么？ 美联储降息对美国经济的影响主要体现在以下几个方面。首先，美联储主席鲍 威尔在全球央行年会上释放了非常鸽派的信号，超出了市场预 ...

Core Viewpoint - The Chinese pharmaceutical industry is expected to continue its upward trend due to positive factors such as the overseas expansion of innovative drugs and the optimization of domestic procurement policies [1] Group 1: Industry Outlook - The report from招商国际 indicates that the market has high expectations for the frequency and scale of overseas transactions, leading to a sustained increase in the valuation of innovative drugs [1] - The future growth of innovative drugs is anticipated to be driven primarily by the clinical advancement of authorized pipelines by overseas partners [1] Group 2: Company Recommendations - The report recommends buying shares in the following companies: 三生制药 (01530), 巨子生物 (02367), 药明合联 (02268), 固生堂 (02273), 中国生物制药 (01177), and 信达生物 (01801) [1]

Group 1 - Ryzneuta® (marketed as "亿立舒®" in China) has successfully completed its second shipment to the U.S. market, marking significant progress in its commercialization journey [1] - The drug was approved for sale in the U.S. in January 2023, and by May 2025, the first shipment to the U.S. market was completed, indicating a rapid acceleration in its commercialization process [1] - Acrotech, the U.S. partner, has increased its procurement volume and sales targets for Ryzneuta® based on optimistic clinical data and market potential, and plans to independently invest in research for an automatic injection version of the drug [1][2] Group 2 - Ryzneuta® is a novel long-acting G-CSF product and the only one in China that has undergone head-to-head clinical comparisons with both long-acting and short-acting reference products [2] - The drug has demonstrated superior clinical data, reducing the risk of neutropenia while significantly decreasing the frequency of administration for patients [2] - The U.S. market pricing for Ryzneuta® is set at $4,600 per unit, approximately 14 times the domestic price, reflecting the global market's recognition of the value of Chinese innovative drugs [2] Group 3 - Ryzneuta® was officially launched in the U.S. market in July 2023, and the second shipment occurred just two months later, driven by the partner's confidence in the drug's competitive advantages and market potential [3] - The drug is expected to gradually replace traditional G-CSF products, addressing market demands for long-acting and high-efficacy options [3] - In the first half of 2024, the sales revenue from the innovative drug business of the company increased by 169.57%, with Ryzneuta® alone achieving a shipment volume of over 220,000 units, a year-on-year increase of 96.02% [3]

Investment Rating - The industry is rated as "Outperform" indicating that the sector is expected to perform better than the market benchmark over the next 12 months [57]. Core Insights - The overall performance of the pharmaceutical industry in China remains weak, with average revenue growth of 1.6% and average net profit declining by 3.2% in the first half of 2025. This is a deterioration compared to the full year of 2024, where revenue growth was 3.2% and net profit declined by 1.4% [5][6]. - The innovative drug sector (Biotech) continues to show strong performance, with an average revenue growth of 35% in 1H25, supported by favorable medical insurance payment policies and successful overseas licensing deals [4][9]. - The pharmaceutical sector (Pharma) shows stable performance with an average revenue growth of 0.8% and net profit growth of 3.4% in 1H25, benefiting from a rich pipeline of innovative drugs [4][9]. - The CXO sector has seen significant recovery, with average revenue growth of 15.5% and net profit growth of 32.7% in 1H25, driven by strong demand for commercial production [37]. - The medical device sector is experiencing mixed performance, particularly the IVD segment, which saw a revenue decline of 14% in 1H25 due to policy impacts and price competition [14][8]. Summary by Sections Pharmaceutical Industry Performance - The average revenue growth for A-share and Hong Kong-listed pharmaceutical companies was 1.6% in 1H25, with net profit declining by 3.2% compared to 2024 [5][6]. - The innovative drug segment remains robust, with a 35% revenue increase, while the traditional generic drug business is under pressure [4][9]. CXO Sector - The CXO sector's revenue grew by 15.5% and net profit by 32.7% in 1H25, largely due to low base effects and strong demand for commercial production services [37]. Medical Devices - The IVD segment faced significant challenges, with a 14% revenue decline in 1H25, attributed to policy changes and competitive pricing pressures [14][8]. - Despite some recovery in medical device tenders, the overall market remains under pressure due to ongoing inventory clearance and competitive dynamics [14]. Future Outlook - The pharmaceutical industry is expected to benefit from the optimization of domestic procurement policies and the continued growth of innovative drug exports, although caution is advised regarding stock price increases [38]. - The report recommends buying shares in companies such as Sangamo Therapeutics (1530 HK), Junshi Biosciences (2367 HK), WuXi AppTec (2268 HK), and others due to their strong growth potential [38].

Summary of Key Points from Conference Call Records Industry Overview - The conference call discusses the **innovative drug and pharmaceutical industry** in China, highlighting the recovery of PS and PB ratios in Hong Kong's creative sales companies, although they have not yet reached historical highs, indicating a period of recovery [1][2]. Core Insights and Arguments - **Global Competitiveness of Chinese Innovative Drugs**: China possesses advantages in population, domestic demand, manufacturing, supply chain, and rapidly improving innovation capabilities, which are driving Chinese assets to go global. High-quality early-stage products from China are in significant demand in the U.S. market, with leading companies gradually increasing their performance [1][3]. - **Valuation Trends**: The innovative drug sector's valuation is expected to first recover to previous PS levels and then potentially break new highs as more products are launched and clinical data is disclosed. The number of products is projected to increase, which will enhance company valuations [1][4]. - **Performance of Kangfang Biotech**: Kangfang Biotech's data presented at WCLC showed a p-value of 0.000332 and an HR value of 0.78, indicating significant improvement, especially in brain metastasis patients, which is a rare and meaningful finding [1][5]. - **International Conference Participation**: In 2025, over 70 Chinese studies were showcased at ASCO, with ongoing presentations at international conferences like WCLC and ESMO, indicating China's growing international influence in innovative drug development [1][6][8]. Additional Important Content - **Diverse Treatment Areas**: The innovative drug trend is not limited to oncology but also includes immunology, with upcoming data releases at various international conferences, showcasing significant progress in multiple therapeutic areas [1][8]. - **Future Growth Expectations**: The Chinese innovative drug industry is anticipated to continue significant growth in the coming years, with more new data and products expected as operational logic is refined. The collaboration models are diversifying, enhancing China's global pricing power and influence [1][9]. - **Catalysts for Market Impact**: The second half of 2025 is expected to bring several important catalysts for the Chinese innovative drug market, including potential approvals for new products from leading companies like Heng Rui and developments from companies like Innovent Biologics and BeiGene [1][10][11]. - **Heng Rui Pharmaceutical's Performance**: As a leading company, Heng Rui's performance in the first half of 2025 was outstanding, with a significant increase in the number of products contributing to sales, reflecting its strong position in global transactions [1][12]. - **Innovent Biologics' Growth**: Innovent Biologics reported significant revenue growth of 5.95 billion, a 50.6% year-on-year increase, indicating improved operational efficiency [1][13]. - **Kangfang Biotech's Platform Value**: Kangfang Biotech demonstrated strong performance with a 49.2% growth in product revenue, showcasing its platform's value and potential for new dual and multi-antibody assets [1][14]. - **Bai Jie Shen Zhou's Financial Performance**: Bai Jie Shen Zhou reported a 17.5% quarter-on-quarter revenue increase, exceeding expectations, with new data updates expected in the second half of the year [1][16]. Conclusion - The innovative drug industry in China is on a recovery trajectory, with strong growth potential driven by competitive advantages, increasing product launches, and expanding international presence. The upcoming catalysts and ongoing developments in various companies are expected to further enhance the industry's outlook.

Market Performance - On September 5, the Shanghai Composite Index rose by 1.24% to 3812.51 points, while the Shenzhen Component Index increased by 3.89% [1] - The ChiNext Index saw a significant rise of 6.55%, and the CSI 300 Index increased by 2.18% [1] - A-share trading volume was 2.35 trillion yuan, down from 2.58 trillion yuan the previous day [1] Industry Developments - On September 5, 2025, Hengrui Medicine announced an exclusive licensing agreement with Braveheart Bio for its Myosin small molecule inhibitor HRS-1893, indicating ongoing innovation in China's outbound drug licensing [3] - Wobo Pharmaceutical announced a collaboration with Novartis for its cardiovascular small nucleic acid pipeline, reflecting international recognition of Chinese small nucleic acid drugs [3] - The overall pharmaceutical sector showed marginal improvement in mid-year performance, with revenue and net profit growth rates of 6.9% and 56.1%, respectively, and a gross margin increase to 77.7% [3] Future Outlook - The upcoming industry conferences in September and October are expected to reveal multiple clinical data points, which could act as catalysts for the sector [4] - The World Lung Cancer Conference (WCLC) will take place from September 6-9, featuring 35 presentations from Chinese scholars, highlighting the anticipation for clinical data from domestic new drugs [4] - The innovation drug sector is expected to continue benefiting from favorable policies, including the acceleration of commercial health insurance directory progress and improved liquidity conditions [4][5] Investment Opportunities - The innovation drug sector's growth logic is supported by internationalization efforts such as BD and license-out agreements [5] - The upcoming third-quarter reports for innovation drugs and their supply chain companies are anticipated to provide stronger valuation support [6] - Key catalysts for the second half of the year include policy support, upcoming data releases from major international conferences, and accelerated commercialization of Chinese innovative drugs [7] ETFs and Indices - The Innovation Drug ETF (517110) tracks the innovation drug industry index, covering various segments of drug development, production, and commercialization, which may help mitigate risks associated with single technology failures [8] - The Sci-Tech Innovation Drug ETF (589723) focuses on biotech and has shown stronger rebound performance compared to the broader market, indicating potential for better returns in a favorable market environment [8]

Group 1 - The Hong Kong innovative drug concept stocks have seen a significant rise, with the Hong Kong Innovative Drug 50 ETF (513780) increasing by 4.02% as of the report date, and a year-to-date increase of 103.51% [1][2] - Major component stocks such as Sanofi, Eucan Vision Biotech-B, and others have surged over 15%, indicating strong market performance in the innovative drug sector [1] - The Hong Kong Innovative Drug 50 ETF closely tracks the CSI Hong Kong Innovative Drug Index, which reflects the overall performance of innovative drug companies listed in the Hong Kong Stock Connect [1] Group 2 - Approximately 110 Hong Kong biopharmaceutical companies reported mid-year earnings, with nearly 70 companies showing year-on-year revenue growth, and about 10 companies achieving revenue growth exceeding 100% [2] - The industry is experiencing a shift from "Made in China" to "Created in China," with innovative products entering the commercialization phase and potential for international expansion [2] - Current market conditions, characterized by low inventory and valuation bottoms, present an excellent opportunity for investment in the pharmaceutical sector [2]

Core Viewpoint - The Hong Kong pharmaceutical sector experienced a significant surge on September 5, with the Hang Seng Biotechnology Index rising over 3%, leading the key indices in Hong Kong [1] Group 1: Market Performance - The largest Hang Seng Medical ETF (159892) also saw an increase of over 3% [1] - Notable stock performances included a rise of over 9% for 3SBio, with ConvaTec and Crystal International Holdings also showing strong gains [1] - The Hong Kong Stock Connect Medical ETF (520510), focusing on CXO, innovative drugs, and AI healthcare, increased by nearly 2% [1] Group 2: Industry Outlook - Wanlian Securities predicts a strong recovery for the Hong Kong innovative drug industry in the first half of 2025, following prior adjustments, with substantial growth in overall revenue and profits [1] - Key driving factors for this recovery include accelerated overseas expansion of innovative drugs, increased commercialization, and supportive policies [1] - The continuous improvement of the 18A policy in Hong Kong and the implementation of the fifth set of standards on the Sci-Tech Innovation Board are enhancing the financing environment for innovative drug companies, thereby improving liquidity and aiding in industry valuation recovery [1]

Group 1 - The core viewpoint is that the innovative drug sector is experiencing a significant rise, with multiple companies showing substantial stock price increases ahead of the World Lung Cancer Conference in September 2025, where major product launches are expected [1] - Companies such as 3SBio, Hengrui Medicine, and WuXi Biologics have seen stock price increases of 9.55%, 2.95%, and 5.16% respectively, indicating strong market interest [1] - The upcoming conference is anticipated to provide new development opportunities and market attention for innovative drug companies through the release and exchange of research results [1] Group 2 - In the first seven months of this year, China's innovative drug companies have normalized their business development (BD) overseas, with license out amounts reaching nearly $80 billion, a year-on-year increase of over 160% [2] - Analysts suggest that the essence of Chinese innovative drugs going global in 2025 is to replace some ecological niches of overseas biotech through national advantages, potentially leading to new breakthroughs in the global innovative drug industry [2] - The deep participation of Chinese innovative drugs in the global industrial chain is expected to benefit significantly from the global innovation cycle, especially if a new round of interest rate cuts occurs overseas [2]

Group 1 - The Hong Kong stock market is experiencing an upward trend, with the innovative pharmaceutical sector showing strong performance, as evidenced by a 3.5% increase in the Hang Seng Innovative Drug Index and over 400 million yuan in trading volume for the Hang Seng Innovative Drug ETF (159316) [1] - Hengrui Medicine announced a significant overseas business development (BD) deal worth over 1 billion USD for its drug HRS-1893, with an upfront payment of 65 million USD, aimed at expanding its market reach and providing quality treatment options globally [1] - Guosen Securities highlighted that the innovative drug sector has performed well in the first half of the year, driven by successful BD collaborations, excellent clinical data, and supportive policies, indicating a rapid increase in the commercial value of newly launched products [1] Group 2 - The Hang Seng Innovative Drug Index has been adjusted to exclude contract research organizations (CROs), achieving a "purity" of 100% for innovative drug companies, which allows for a more accurate reflection of the overall performance of China's innovative pharmaceutical sector [2] - The Hang Seng Innovative Drug ETF (159316) is currently the only product tracking this newly adjusted index, providing investors with a precise opportunity to capitalize on the growth of the innovative drug industry [2]