日本股市再创新高！ 今日（10月20日），日本股市高开高走，日经225指数大涨超1600点，史上首次突破49000点，日内涨幅超过3%。 据媒体报道，日本自民党与维新会今日将签署联合执政协议，这意味着高市早苗已基本确定将在21日的首相指名选举中胜出。分析人士指出，政治不确定性的消 退，提振了日本股市。市场预计，高市早苗将推动实施低利率和增加政府支出等市场支持政策。 日本股市暴涨超16 00点 今日，亚太股市集体上涨。其中，日本股市走势强劲，日经225指数上涨超1600点并首次突破49000点关口，再创历史新高。 截至下午收盘，日经225指数报49185.5点，较前一交易日上涨1603点，涨幅达到3.37%。个股方面，软银集团大涨超8%，股价再创历史新高，总市值突破36万亿日 元。 | 日经225 L | | --- | | N225 | | んO1QE EO 今井 48332.71 最高 49185.50 最低 48254.83 | | 金额 振幅 1.96% 337% 160335 芯里 | | 昨收 47582.15 52周高 49185.50 52周低 30792.74 | | 相关基金 日经225ET ...

日本央行审议委员高田创表示，尽管存在政治不确定性，但提高政策利率的时机已经成熟。此番言论重 申了他上个月投下反对票、反对维持政策不变时的坚定信念。 曾是资深经济学家和债券分析师的高田创表示，今年早些时候美联储降息后日元未能升值，这是支持日 本央行加息的另一个因素。日元汇率持续疲软，徘徊在150关口附近。 "我相信，现在是提高政策利率的绝佳时机，"高田创周一在日本西南部广岛市向当地商界领袖发表演讲 时说。"日本那种曾经根深蒂固的（通缩）常态已经减弱，价格稳定目标已基本实现。" 高田创说："尽管美联储在2025年9月采取了降息措施，但日元并未升值，反而出现贬值。此外，日美两 国股市均处于历史高位，也营造了有利的市场情绪。" 这是高田创在提出加息建议后的首次演讲。他指出，日本的通胀水平已连续三年多超过日本央行的目 标，解决这个问题至关重要。他的言论表明，即便支持货币宽松政策的高市早苗本周极有可能成为日本 新任首相，他依然坚定不移地支持加息。 高田创表示，随着日本持续的通缩时代告一段落，当局需要改变策略。他说："我开始相信，我们必须 重点关注整体通胀水平，过去三年半里，该数据一直保持在2%及以上的水平，这种情况亟待解 ...

智通财经APP获悉，日本央行(BOJ)委员高田创(Hajime Takata)表示，当前上调央行政策利率的时机已成 熟。他暂不考虑政治动荡因素，并重申了自己的立场——上月他就对维持政策不变的决议投了反对票。 周一，高田创在日本西南部广岛向当地商界领袖发表演讲时称："我认为现在是上调政策利率的绝佳时 机。"他指出，"日本曾根深蒂固的(低物价)常态已逐渐消退，物价稳定目标已基本实现。" 这是高田创在提出加息提议后首次发表公开演讲，他特别强调了"应对通胀率超央行目标已逾三年"这一 问题的重要性。尽管支持宽松货币政策的高市早苗本周极有可能当选日本下任首相，但高田创的言论表 明，他对加息的支持态度依然坚定。 高田创表示，日本持续通缩的时代已落幕，当局需转变政策方向。他称："过去三年半，整体通胀率始 终维持在2%及以上水平，我认为当前必须聚焦这一现状采取行动。" 在下次政策决议前的最后一场既定公开活动中，植田和男上周曾表示，日本央行的利率立场"完全"没有 改变，这一表态暗示他不排除10月加息的可能性。 高田创表示："尽管美联储在2025年9月采取了降息举措，但日元不仅未升值，反而出现贬值。此外，日 美两国股市均处于历史高 ...

新华财经北京10月20日电日本央行审议委员高田创周一表示，日本经济正在抵御美国关税的冲击，并且 很可能已经实现了2%的通胀目标，重申了他对恢复加息的呼吁。 高田创在讲话中说，日本央行10月份的短观企业景气调查和该行分行经理的调查结果都表明，就业和收 入状况的改善正在支撑消费。 他说，随着企业稳步提高价格和工资，日本已经大致实现了央行2%的通胀目标，现在甚至面临物价超 预期上涨的风险。 "我认为现在是加息的最佳时机，"高田创说，解释了他在9月会议上呼吁加息的原因。他是在9月会议上 投票反对将利率维持在0.5%，而是提议加息至0.75%的两名审议委员之一。 （文章来源：新华财经） ...

（原标题：金融巨头，大跌！） 【导读】日本股市早盘走低，金融股跌幅居前 中国基金报记者 李智 一起来看下日韩股市的最新情况。 日本股市早盘走低 金融股跌幅居前 韩国股市震荡调整 韩国股市低开后震荡调整，韩国综合指数现报3744.69。 10月17日，日韩股市走低。截至记者发稿时，日经225指数跌幅扩大至1%。 受隔夜美股银行股大跌影响，日本金融股走低。截至记者发稿时，日本银行业指数下跌1.88%，为东京 证券交易所行业分类指数中表现最差的指数。个股方面，瑞穗金融集团、三菱日联金融、三井住友金融 集团均跌超2%。 摩根大通分析师表示，银行业是一个投资者倾向于"先卖出，后提问"的领域，市场情绪的快速恶化，正 成为比银行资产负债表本身更大的担忧。 日本央行月底会议不远，行长植田和男仍未排除加息可能性。日本央行行长植田和男表示，如果对实现 经济前景的信心增强，央行将继续收紧政策——这意味着近期加息的大门仍然敞开。 植田和男周四在华盛顿参加二十国集团（G20）会议后对记者说道："我们的立场没有改变，如果我们 对实现经济前景的信心增强，我们将调整货币宽松的程度。" 自去年以来，日本央行一直在通过加息和 调整资产负债表政策 ...

据日本媒体援引集体采访报道，美国财政部长贝森特表示，如果日本央行继续执行正确的货币政策，日元将自行稳定在适当水平。 据共同社和《日经新闻》报道，贝森特拒绝对日元的具体水平发表评论。本月，日元的贬值速度至少是其他主要货币的两倍，并于10月10日触及153.27的8 个月低点，对日本央行近期加息的猜测降温是这一走势的关键因素。 周四欧盘前，美元兑日元汇率有所反弹，重回151关口附近。 负责包括干预在内的货币政策的日本财务大臣加藤胜信的言论也支撑了日元。加藤在华盛顿对记者表示，他看到了日元正朝着疲软的方向快速变动。 据《日经新闻》报道，贝森特拒绝对日本央行行长植田和男在10月30日的下一次政策决定发表评论。报道称，这位财长仅表示植田和男非常有能力。 日本的通胀已连续三年多保持在或高于2%的水平，而实际工资在大部分时间内都在下降。在8月份接受采访时，贝森特表示，日本央行未来将会加息，因为 它需要控制其通胀问题。 贝森特最近有关日本央行的言论比他8月份的语气要温和，当时他曾表示日本央行在应对通胀方面行动迟缓。这一评论再次提醒了华盛顿对日本货币的立 场，因为美国总统特朗普偶尔会指责日本为提升其贸易竞争优势而削弱本国货币。 ...

Group 1 - The Bank of Japan's policy board member, Naohisa Tamura, hinted at a potential interest rate hike during the monetary policy meeting on October 29-30, citing rising inflation risks and the need to gradually reduce monetary easing [1] - Tamura believes that the timeline for achieving the 2% inflation target may be sooner than previously expected, contrasting with the Bank of Japan's forecast that it would not be reached until the latter half of the 2027 outlook period [1] - Japan's real interest rates remain in negative territory, and Tamura suggests that the central bank should approach a neutral monetary policy stance, estimating Japan's neutral rate to be at least 1% [1] Group 2 - An IMF official emphasized that due to global trade uncertainties, the Bank of Japan must maintain a loose monetary policy and adopt a very gradual approach to interest rate hikes [2] - The IMF noted that Japan's economy has performed better than expected this year, driven by strong consumption and exports, although growth risks are skewed to the downside due to unclear trade negotiations and potential reversals in global monetary easing [2] - There is uncertainty regarding whether domestic wages in Japan can continue to rise and support consumption, which is crucial for stabilizing inflation around the Bank of Japan's 2% target [2] Group 3 - Market expectations suggest that the Bank of Japan may raise interest rates again in January 2024, influenced by the current political uncertainty in Japan [3] - Analysts predict that the next interest rate hike will occur in January, with expectations that rates will reach 1.50% by the end of 2027 [3] - Despite a potential decrease in the likelihood of a rate hike in October, the Bank of Japan is expected to maintain a hawkish stance in the short term, while being cautious to avoid excessive tightening that could harm the economy [3]

Core Viewpoint - The Federal Reserve's recent comments on inflation indicate a serious concern about rising prices, with a specific focus on maintaining the 2% inflation target, which has been a long-standing policy goal since 2012 [3][5][9] Inflation Indicators - The core PCE inflation rate, a key indicator monitored by the Federal Reserve, peaked at over 5% in 2023 but has since decreased to 3.9% as of August [3] - The Consumer Price Index (CPI) showed a decline from 9.1% in June 2022 to 3.7% in September 2023, yet essential items like food, housing, and healthcare continue to rise [5] Market Sentiment and Expectations - Public expectations for inflation remain high, with a survey indicating a 3.6% expectation for the next year, suggesting a lack of confidence in returning to the 2% target [5] - Market reactions to Federal Reserve signals have shown volatility, with the probability of interest rate hikes increasing from 15% to over 30% in early October [7] Monetary Policy Actions - The Federal Reserve has raised interest rates to a range of 5.25% to 5.50%, the highest level in 22 years, which increases borrowing costs for consumers and businesses [7] - The total credit card debt in the U.S. surpassed $1 trillion in Q2 2023, indicating significant financial pressure on consumers [7] Economic Challenges - The Federal Reserve faces a dilemma between managing rising debt levels among consumers and businesses and controlling inflation, which remains stubbornly high [9] - The potential for further interest rate hikes or balance sheet reduction could tighten market liquidity, impacting economic growth [11] External Factors - Ongoing trade issues, particularly between the U.S. and China, and rising international oil prices are contributing to inflationary pressures, complicating the Federal Reserve's policy decisions [5][9]

Market Overview - The Japanese stock market experienced significant declines, with the Nikkei 225 index falling by 2.58% and the Topix index dropping by 1.99% as of October 14 [1][2] - The decline was primarily driven by political instability following the announcement of the Komeito party's withdrawal from the ruling coalition with the Liberal Democratic Party, raising concerns about the potential inability of the new LDP president, Sanae Takaichi, to assume the role of Prime Minister [1][2] Currency and Bond Market - The Japanese yen showed volatility, initially declining but later rising due to increased demand for safe-haven assets, although it has depreciated by 2.79% against the US dollar for the month [1][3] - Japanese long-term government bond yields continued to rise, indicating investor disinterest in Japanese bonds, with the 20-year bond yield increasing by 0.15% and the 30-year bond yield rising by 0.81% [3][4] Political Impact on Financial Markets - The political uncertainty in Japan is expected to continue affecting the stock market, with potential for further declines if the political deadlock persists and external negative factors arise [3][6] - Analysts suggest that if political stability is restored and global risk appetite improves, the Japanese stock market may stabilize and rebound [3][6] Government Debt Concerns - Concerns regarding Japan's fiscal sustainability are heightened, with government debt exceeding 260% of GDP, leading to fears of increased bond issuance and potential fiscal deterioration [4][5] - The market anticipates that if the new government opts for fiscal stimulus measures, it could further increase the supply of government bonds, necessitating higher yields as compensation [4][5] Interest Rate Outlook - The likelihood of a rate hike by the Bank of Japan has diminished significantly, with current expectations for an increase in October at only 10%, down from 63% earlier in the month [6] - The political instability may lead the Bank of Japan to adopt a cautious approach regarding monetary policy, delaying any potential rate hikes until the political landscape stabilizes [6]

Group 1 - Japan's economy is expected to contract in the third quarter after five consecutive quarters of growth, primarily due to the impact of U.S. tariffs on exports [1][4] - Economists predict a year-on-year decline of 1.2% in Japan's GDP for the third quarter, a significant shift from previous expectations of a 0.1% increase [1][4] - The third quarter GDP data is scheduled to be released on November 17 [1] Group 2 - The potential economic downturn may provide support for the economic stimulus plan proposed by the new Liberal Democratic Party president, Sanae Takaichi [4] - Takaichi faces various economic challenges, including inflation pressures and trade tensions, with a focus on consolidating political support [4] - The Bank of Japan may slow down its interest rate hikes in response to the economic slowdown, with a monetary policy decision expected on October 30 [4] Group 3 - Economists forecast a 4% quarter-on-quarter decline in Japan's exports for the third quarter, worsening from a previous estimate of 3.1% [4] - Exports to the U.S. have seen significant declines, despite a trade agreement that fixed the tariff rate at 15%, which is still higher than before [4] - Many Japanese companies are reportedly lowering prices to absorb some of the tariff impacts and alleviate the burden on consumers [4] Group 4 - Private consumption in Japan is expected to grow by 0.5%, benefiting from wage increases resulting from spring labor negotiations [5] - However, core inflation remains significantly above the Bank of Japan's 2% target, continuing to erode household purchasing power [5]