Group 1 - The core viewpoint of the articles indicates that the U.S. business activity accelerated significantly in August, primarily driven by a strong recovery in the manufacturing sector [1][2] - The S&P Global U.S. Composite PMI output index rose to 55.4 in August, up from 55.1 in July, marking the highest level since December of the previous year and indicating continued expansion in the private sector [1] - The manufacturing PMI surged to 53.3, reversing the contraction seen in July (49.8) and exceeding market expectations for a second consecutive month of contraction [1][2] Group 2 - Chris Williamson, Chief Business Economist at S&P Global Market Intelligence, noted that the strong PMI reading supports a robust performance by U.S. businesses in Q3, with the economy expanding at an annualized rate of 2.5%, higher than the average of 1.3% in the first half of the year [2] - There is an increase in both manufacturing and service sector demand, but companies are struggling to meet sales growth, leading to a rise in unfinished orders at the fastest pace since early 2022 [2] - The input cost index rose to a three-month high of 62.3, and prices for goods and services reached a three-year high, indicating a significant increase in inflationary pressures [2]

·T. Rowe Price：鲍威尔可能在杰克逊霍尔会议上保持中立 ·PGIM：鲍威尔可能暗示将采取更渐进的方式降息 ·贝莱德建议投资者向对冲基金投入更多资金 ·联昌国际银行：印尼央行可能在第四季度再降息25个基点 ·联昌国际银行（CIMB）经济学家表示，印尼央行可能会在第四季度再降息25个基点，将政策利率降至 4.75%。如果新的关税措施或更疲弱的财政与增长表现拖累经济，2026年可能会进一步宽松。由于第二 季度GDP强于预期，印尼央行将2025年增长预期上调至4.6%-5.4%区间中值以上，并表示下半年增长将 受政府支出和重点项目支持。CIMB指出，这一积极指引意味着最新的降息不太可能标志着持续宽松周 期的开始。展望未来，CIMB预计，印尼央行将在信贷疲弱和贷款增长放缓的背景下，采取数据依赖型 策略，同时改善货币政策传导。 ·巴克莱：印度央行今年可能再次降息 ·巴克莱经济学家指出，印度央行今年10月可能会再次降息25个基点。他们说，较低的通胀率和关税悬 而未决的情况为再次降息打开了大门。印度央行在本月暂停了宽松周期，这是在不确定性加剧的情况下 的审慎之举。贸易风险的发展将决定政策空间，并指引印度央行在即将 ...

Group 1 - The majority of economists predict that the Bank of Japan will raise the key interest rate by at least 25 basis points later this year, with the proportion of such predictions increasing from over half to nearly two-thirds in recent weeks [1] - Despite recent weak employment data in the US reviving expectations for a Federal Reserve rate cut, 70% of analysts believe this will not delay the Bank of Japan's moderate tightening monetary policy [1] - In a survey conducted from August 12 to 19, 67 out of 73 economists (92%) expect the Bank of Japan to maintain the current interest rate at its September meeting, while 63% of 71 respondents anticipate a rate hike of at least 25 basis points to 0.75% in the next quarter [1] Group 2 - In the week of August 16, Japan's stock market experienced the largest foreign capital inflow in nearly four months, driven by expectations of a US rate cut and strong domestic economic growth data [3] - The Japanese Ministry of Finance reported that foreign investors purchased approximately 1.16 trillion yen (about 78.7 billion USD) worth of Japanese stocks in the last week, marking the largest single-week buying volume since April 5 [3]

Core Viewpoint - A significant majority of economists predict that the Bank of Japan will raise its key interest rate by at least 25 basis points later this year, reflecting a growing consensus on monetary tightening [1] Group 1: Economic Predictions - Nearly two-thirds of economists forecast a rate hike from the Bank of Japan, an increase from over half in the previous survey [1] - 70% of analysts believe that recent weak employment data in the U.S. will not delay the Bank of Japan's moderate tightening policy [1] Group 2: Survey Details - In a survey conducted from August 12 to 19, 67 out of 73 economists (92%) expect the Bank of Japan to maintain its current rate in the September meeting [1] - Among 71 respondents, 63% anticipate a rate increase of at least 25 basis points to 0.75% in the next quarter, up from 54% in the previous month [1] - Of the 40 economists predicting the timing of the next rate hike, 38% selected October as the most likely month, while 30% expect it in January next year and 18% in December this year [1]

1. Report Industry Investment Rating No information provided regarding the industry investment rating. 2. Report's Core View - Gold is expected to trade in a high - level range; silver is likely to decline slightly [2][4]. - Copper lacks a clear driver, and its price will oscillate [2][11]. - Zinc will trade within a range [2][14]. - The decreasing inventory of lead will support its price [2][17]. - Tin will trade within a range [2][20]. - Aluminum will trade in a high - level range; alumina will rise slightly in a sideways movement; cast aluminum alloy will follow the trend of electrolytic aluminum [2][25]. - Nickel will have a narrow - range oscillation based on fundamental logic, and investors should be wary of news - related risks; stainless steel prices will oscillate due to the game between macro - expectations and reality [2][28]. 3. Summary by Related Catalogs 3.1 Precious Metals (Gold and Silver) - **Price and Trading Volume**: For gold, the closing prices of沪金2510 and黄金T+D decreased by 0.31% and 0.33% respectively, while Comex黄金2510 increased by 0.99%. For silver,沪银2510 and白银T+D decreased by 1.57% and 1.74% respectively, and Comex白银2510 increased by 1.48%. The trading volumes and open interests of some contracts also changed [5]. - **Inventory**: The inventories of ETFs, domestic and foreign exchanges showed different trends, such as a decrease in SPDR黄金ETF持仓 by 4 and an increase in Comex白银库存 by 600,232 ounces [5]. - **Macro and Industry News**: Fed's July meeting minutes released hawkish signals; Trump pressured Fed governor Lisa Cook; Fed's potential payment innovation with the industry; China's August LPR remained unchanged [5][22]. - **Trend Intensity**: Gold trend intensity is 1; silver trend intensity is - 1 [9]. 3.2 Copper - **Price and Trading Volume**: The closing price of沪铜主力合约 decreased by 0.30% during the day and increased by 0.13% at night; the closing price of伦铜3M电子盘 increased by 0.38%. The trading volumes and open interests of both contracts changed [11]. - **Inventory and Spread**: The inventory of沪铜 decreased by 275 tons, and that of伦铜 increased by 1,200 tons. Various spreads such as LME铜升贴水 and现货 - to - futures spreads also changed [11]. - **Macro and Industry News**: Fed's meeting minutes were hawkish; China's August LPR remained unchanged; PT Smelting's maintenance was extended; Codelco's smelter restarted; Glencore applied for investment incentives; China's July copper imports data were released [11][13]. - **Trend Intensity**: Copper trend intensity is 0 [13]. 3.3 Zinc - **Price and Related Data**: The closing price of沪锌主力 increased by 0.27%, and that of伦锌3M电子盘 decreased by 0.50%. Other data such as trading volume, open interest, and various spreads also changed [14]. - **News**: The US PPI reached 3.3%, and the growth rate of M2 was approaching 5%, which might lead to inflation [14]. - **Trend Intensity**: Zinc trend intensity is 0 [14]. 3.4 Lead - **Price and Related Data**: The closing price of沪铅主力 decreased by 0.59%, and that of伦铅3M电子盘 decreased by 0.33%. The inventory of沪铅 and伦铅 decreased, and other data such as trading volume, open interest, and spreads also changed [17]. - **Macro and Industry News**: Fed's meeting minutes were hawkish; China's August LPR remained unchanged [18]. - **Trend Intensity**: Lead trend intensity is 0 [18]. 3.5 Tin - **Price and Trading Volume**: The closing price of沪锡主力 decreased by 0.09% during the day and 0.23% at night; the closing price of伦锡3M电子盘 increased by 0.01%. The trading volumes and open interests of both contracts changed [21]. - **Inventory and Spread**: The inventory of沪锡 decreased by 184 tons, and that of伦锡 increased by 85 tons. Various spreads also changed [21]. - **Macro and Industry News**: Similar to other metals, including Fed's meeting minutes, Trump's pressure on the Fed, etc. [22]. - **Trend Intensity**: Tin trend intensity is - 1 [24]. 3.6 Aluminum, Alumina, and Cast Aluminum Alloy - **Price and Related Data**: For aluminum,沪铝主力 and LME铝3M prices changed; for alumina,沪氧化铝主力 price changed. Various data such as trading volume, open interest, spreads, and enterprise profits also changed [25]. - **Macro and Industry News**: China's August LPR remained unchanged; Trump pressured Fed governor Lisa Cook [27]. - **Trend Intensity**: Aluminum, alumina, and cast aluminum alloy trend intensities are all 0 [27]. 3.7 Nickel and Stainless Steel - **Price and Industry Chain Data**: The closing prices of沪镍主力 and不锈钢主力 changed. Various data in the industrial chain such as import profit, spreads, and raw material prices also changed [28]. - **Macro and Industry News**: Multiple events in the Indonesian nickel industry, including potential export suspension, project production, environmental violations, and production suspension; a steel mill in Shandong reduced production [28][31]. - **Trend Intensity**: Nickel and stainless steel trend intensities are both 0 [33].

Group 1 - The Bank of Japan, under Governor Ueda, has raised interest rates for the first time in 17 years, marking a significant shift from its previous ultra-loose monetary policy [1] - Ueda's cautious stance is evident as he becomes one of the more dovish members of the nine-member policy committee, expressing concerns about the economic impact of U.S. tariffs [1][3] - The recent outlook report from the Bank of Japan indicates that tariffs could complicate future interest rate decisions, reflecting a cautious approach towards the economic outlook [1][3] Group 2 - The July meeting minutes reveal that persistent food inflation has led some committee members to warn of potential second-round price effects, which could justify further rate hikes [2] - Despite hawkish signals from some committee members, Ueda emphasizes that domestic demand and wage-driven inflation remain below the central bank's target, supporting a slower pace of rate increases [2] - The internal dynamics of the committee show a shift in influence, with former dovish members losing power and hawkish members warning about the risks of rising inflation due to food price increases [2][3] Group 3 - Ueda and his deputy, Shinichi Uchida, maintain a dovish stance, focusing on the downside risks facing Japan's fragile economy and the potential negative impacts of U.S. tariffs [3] - Concerns about the impact of U.S. tariffs on exports and capital spending are prevalent, with economists predicting a decline in corporate profits that could affect capital expenditures [3] - The trade agreement between Japan and the U.S. has not fully clarified the timeline for tariff reductions, leading to uncertainty about the future economic landscape [3] Group 4 - The governor proposes policies and interest rate proposals to the committee, which have historically been approved by majority or unanimous votes [4] - Since the current committee framework was established in 1998, the governor's proposals have never been rejected, indicating strong leadership [4] Group 5 - There is a perception that the current committee lacks strong dissenters, making it unlikely for hawkish members to oppose the governor's wishes regarding interest rate hikes [5] - Ueda's leadership within the committee appears to be solid, suggesting that his cautious approach may prevail despite the presence of hawkish sentiments [5]

Group 1 - The core viewpoint is that Japan must raise interest rates and restore fiscal order to reverse the depreciation of the yen, which has led to increased inflation and pressure on household living standards [1][2] - Taro Kono, a senior ruling party lawmaker, emphasizes the importance of signaling to the market that Japan will move away from negative real interest rates, advocating for gradual interest rate hikes by the Bank of Japan (BOJ) [1] - Despite consumer inflation exceeding 2% for over three years, BOJ Governor Kazuo Ueda has urged caution in further rate hikes due to potential economic impacts from U.S. tariffs [1][2] Group 2 - Critics argue that the slow pace of BOJ interest rate hikes has contributed to yen weakness, increasing import costs and affecting corporate profits and retirees [2] - Kono suggests that the government and BOJ need to establish a new economic framework to replace the "Abenomics" policy, which focused on large-scale monetary and fiscal stimulus to end deflation [2] - Kono advocates for a moderate appreciation of the yen as the best measure to address rising living costs and restore fiscal health under a new consensus [2]

Core Viewpoint - The USD/JPY exchange rate is influenced by the Bank of Japan's hawkish signals and the high probability of a Federal Reserve rate cut, leading to a strengthening of the Japanese yen [1] Group 1: Currency Movements - As of August 18, the USD/JPY is trading around 147, with a current quote of 147.50, reflecting a 0.22% increase from the previous close of 147.18 [1] - The USD/JPY is at a critical technical level, with support seen at 147.10 (38.2% Fibonacci retracement) and 145.80-146.00 (50-day and 100-day moving averages) [1] - Resistance levels are identified at 147.90 (21-day moving average) and the 149.40-149.50 range (200-day moving average and 50% Fibonacci retracement of 2025 high/low) [1] Group 2: Monetary Policy Insights - The Bank of Japan's July policy meeting indicated a hawkish stance, raising inflation expectations and keeping the option for rate hikes within the year [1] - U.S. Treasury Secretary criticized the Bank of Japan for its "policy lag," urging for rate hikes to combat inflation pressures [1] - Market analysis suggests that Japan's weak consumer recovery and potential U.S. tariffs on Japanese automobiles may lead the Bank of Japan to maintain a cautious approach [1] Group 3: Market Dynamics - The CME FedWatch tool indicates a 93.8% probability of a Federal Reserve rate cut in September, impacting the USD/JPY dynamics [1] - The market is currently assessing the interplay between the normalization of Japanese monetary policy and the Federal Reserve's policy shift [1]

Global Central Bank Dynamics - US President Trump urges the Federal Reserve to cut interest rates and threatens to consider a major lawsuit against Fed Chairman Powell over cost overruns on Fed headquarters renovations [1] - US Treasury Secretary Basant clarifies that he is not pressuring the Fed to lower rates, stating he is only discussing neutral interest rate models [1] - The Federal Reserve has terminated the "new activity supervision program" established in 2023, which was aimed at enhancing regulation of banks' cryptocurrency activities, continuing the trend of relaxed regulation in the crypto industry [1] - Fed Chairman Powell is scheduled to speak at the Jackson Hole global central bank conference on August 22 regarding economic outlook and Fed policy framework assessment [1] Interest Rate Decisions - The Reserve Bank of Australia cuts interest rates by 25 basis points to 3.60%, the lowest level since April 2023, marking the third rate cut this year [2] - The Bank of Thailand lowers its interest rate by 25 basis points to 1.50%, with a unanimous vote, citing expected economic growth and low inflation [3] - The Bank of Canada decides to maintain its current monetary policy due to trade uncertainties and economic resilience, with some officials believing current rate cuts are sufficient to address the mild impact of tariffs on consumer prices [2] - The Bank of Japan considers shifting focus from "potential inflation" indicators to overall inflation rates and expectations, which may pave the way for a rate hike in October [2] - The Norwegian central bank indicates that policy rates may be adjusted more quickly if inflation returns to target levels faster than expected or if unemployment rises more than anticipated [2] - The Turkish central bank continues to implement tight policies despite a decrease in inflation expectations, stating that exchange rate policies will not change [2] Market Observations - Citic Securities reports that the US stock market experienced a style switch following the July CPI release, reminiscent of the "rate cut trade" seen after the June CPI release in 2024 [6] - Barclays analysts note that the nomination of Stephen Moore as a potential new Fed governor could influence future Fed policy direction, raising market concerns [6] - BlackRock analysts suggest that the latest US inflation report alleviates concerns and supports a 90% probability of a rate cut in September, with some bets on a significant cut [6] - Goldman Sachs believes the European Central Bank's rate cut cycle has ended, predicting three rate cuts from the Fed this year and two next year, totaling a 125 basis point reduction [7]

Economic Growth - Japan's Q2 2025 real GDP growth rate increased from 0.6% to 1%, exceeding the expected -0.4%[1] - Nominal GDP growth rate rose from 1% to 1.3%, slightly below the expected 1.4%[1] - Net exports contributed positively to GDP growth, with a turnaround in growth rate[3] Consumer and Investment Trends - Private consumption growth rate slightly decreased from 0.9% to 0.6%, but remained positive[3] - Private sector investment growth rate increased from 4.2% to 5.1%, contributing 1.0 percentage points to GDP[3] - Government spending continued to decline, with a growth rate improvement from -1.6% to -0.4%[3] Export Dynamics - Export growth rate rebounded significantly from -1.2% to 8.4%, with goods exports rising from 2.7% to 8.2%[3] - Net exports contributed 1.3 percentage points to GDP growth, indicating a positive shift in external demand[3] Future Outlook - The Bank of Japan is expected to resume interest rate hikes by the end of the year due to economic recovery prospects[1] - The Japanese government revised its GDP growth forecast for FY2025 down from 1.2% to 0.7%[1] - Risks include potential impacts from tariffs and inflation, which could affect economic momentum[1]