周度报告——新能源汽车 雷克萨斯独资工厂落地上海 ★ 动态跟踪 行业数据跟踪方面，2025 年第 16 周（2025 年 4 月 14 日至 4 月 20 日），国内乘用车零售 38.1 万辆，同比增长 9.0%；新能源乘 用车零售 20.3 万辆，同比增长 27.9%；新能源渗透率为 53.2%。 今年以来，国内乘用车累计零售 600.5 万辆，同比增长 3.1%；新 能源乘用车累计零售 290.6 万辆，同比增长 33.0%；累计新能源 渗透率为 48.4%。4 月全月来看，乘联会预计新能源零售 90 万， 渗透率 51.4%。 新 能 企业端，雷克萨斯作为第二家外商独资车企正式落地上海金山， 工厂投资额 146 亿元，首期拿地 1,692 亩，预计于 6 月开工，初 期年产能约 10 万辆，第一台车将于 2027 年生产下线。 源 与 新 全球来看，3 月全球新能源汽车销量同比增长 33.4%达 149 万辆， 1-3 月累计同比增长 35.4%达 360 万辆。3 月全球新能源渗透率为 24.2%，环比增加 1.5 个百分点。 料 ★ 投资建议 中国新能源汽车行业发展由政策驱动转向市场驱动，23 年新 ...

Core Viewpoint - The article discusses the ongoing competition between electric vehicles (EVs) and traditional fuel vehicles in the Chinese automotive market, highlighting the significant market share that fuel vehicles still hold despite the rapid growth of EVs [3][4][5]. Summary by Sections New Energy Vehicles vs. Fuel Vehicles - The Shanghai Auto Show showcases a strong focus on new energy vehicles, with brands like BYD, NIO, Li Auto, and Xpeng unveiling new models, while some manufacturers continue to support fuel vehicle development [3][5]. - According to SAIC GM's general manager, fuel vehicles are expected to maintain at least 25% market share in the future [3]. Market Data and Trends - In March, the penetration rate of new energy vehicles in China reached 54.1%, indicating a significant shift towards EVs [4]. - Despite the growth of EVs, fuel vehicles remain a substantial part of sales for traditional automakers, with companies like Geely, Great Wall, and Chery still relying heavily on fuel vehicle sales [6][9]. Financial Performance and Competitive Landscape - BYD's decision to stop producing fuel vehicles is backed by its strong control over the battery supply chain, leading to a projected gross margin of 21.02% in 2024, surpassing competitors like Li Auto (19.8%) and Tesla (17.9%) [7]. - Fuel vehicles still represent a significant portion of total sales for major automakers, with Geely's fuel vehicle sales projected to account for 59.19% of total sales in 2024 [9]. Global Market Strategy - Companies like Chery and Geely are focusing on international markets, with Chery's overseas sales in 2024 expected to reach 1.144 million units, of which over 80% will be fuel vehicles [14]. - The global automotive market still sees fuel vehicles as a dominant force, with 85% market share compared to 15% for new energy vehicles [17]. Policy and Industry Outlook - The Chinese government is expected to continue supporting the development of internal combustion engine technology alongside new energy vehicles, indicating a balanced approach to automotive development [13]. - The article suggests that fuel vehicles will remain relevant in the market, especially as electric vehicle technology continues to mature [17].

Report Investment Rating - No investment rating information is provided in the report. Core Views - The lithium carbonate market is under pressure from an oversupply situation that is difficult to fundamentally improve in the short - term and weakening cost support due to the loosening of lithium ore prices. The downstream material factories mainly conduct rigid - demand restocking, and the overall market trading atmosphere is stable. The upstream lithium salt factories have a strong willingness to support prices, but actual transactions are mainly between traders and downstream material factories. The option market shows a bullish sentiment with the call position dominant, and the implied volatility has slightly decreased. Technically, the 60 - minute MACD shows that the two lines are near the 0 - axis and the red bars are slightly contracting. The operation suggestion is to conduct light - position range trading and control risks by paying attention to trading rhythm [2]. Summary by Relevant Catalogs Futures Market - The closing price of the main contract is 74,360 yuan/ton, up 200 yuan; the net position of the top 20 is - 46,489 lots, up 7,282 lots; the position volume of the main contract is 203,726 lots, down 6,885 lots; the spread between near - and far - month contracts is - 260 yuan/ton, up 180 yuan; the Guangzhou Futures Exchange warehouse receipt is 19,135 lots/ton, up 1,380 lots [2]. 现货市场 - The average price of battery - grade lithium carbonate is 74,100 yuan/ton, up 100 yuan; the average price of industrial - grade lithium carbonate is 72,150 yuan/ton, up 100 yuan; the basis of the Li₂CO₃ main contract is - 260 yuan/ton, down 100 yuan [2]. Upstream Situation - The average price of spodumene concentrate (6% CIF China) is 793 US dollars/ton, unchanged; the average price of amblygonite is 8,325 yuan/ton, unchanged; the price of lithium mica (2 - 2.5%) is 2,391 yuan/ton, unchanged [2]. 产业情况 - The monthly output of lithium carbonate is 35,690 tons, up 560 tons; the monthly import volume is 12,327.97 tons, down 7,794.24 tons; the monthly export volume is 417.13 tons, up 18.53 tons; the monthly operating rate of lithium carbonate enterprises is 42%, down 1 percentage point; the monthly output of power batteries is 100,300 MWh, down 7,500 MWh; the price of lithium manganate is 30,000 yuan/ton, unchanged; the price of lithium hexafluorophosphate is 60,500 yuan/ton, unchanged; the price of cobalt - lithium oxide is 225,000 yuan/ton, unchanged; the price of ternary material (811 type) in China is 149,500 yuan/ton, unchanged; the price of ternary material (622 power type) in China is 126,500 yuan/ton, unchanged [2]. Downstream and Application Situation - The price of ternary material (523 single - crystal type) in China is 131,000 yuan/ton, unchanged; the monthly operating rate of ternary cathode materials is 40%, down 4 percentage points; the price of lithium iron phosphate is 33,700 yuan/ton, unchanged; the monthly operating rate of lithium iron phosphate cathodes is 57%, unchanged; the monthly output of new energy vehicles is 888,000 units, down 127,000 units; the monthly sales volume is 892,000 units, down 52,000 units; the cumulative sales penetration rate of new energy vehicles is 40.31%, up 1.35 percentage points; the cumulative sales volume of new energy vehicles is 1,835,000 units, up 628,000 units; the monthly export volume of new energy vehicles is 131,000 units, down 19,000 units; the cumulative export volume of new energy vehicles is 282,000 units, up 100,000 units [2]. Option Situation - The 20 - day average volatility of the underlying is 14.47%, up 0.05 percentage points; the 40 - day average volatility is 13.17%, up 0.04 percentage points; the total call position is 201,060 lots, up 1,000 lots; the total put position is 59,941 lots, up 2,683 lots; the put - call ratio of the total position is 29.81%, up 1.1921 percentage points; the at - the - money implied volatility (IV) is 0.15%, down 0.0036 percentage points [2]. Industry News - During the Tomb - Sweeping Festival holiday in 2025, the price limit range and trading margin standards of various futures contracts on the Guangzhou Futures Exchange remain unchanged. After trading resumes on April 7, 2025, the price limit range of industrial silicon futures contracts will be adjusted to 6%, the speculative trading margin standard to 8%, and the hedging trading margin standard to 7%; for lithium carbonate futures contracts, the price limit range will be adjusted to 8%, the speculative trading margin standard to 10%, and the hedging trading margin standard to 9%. - Guangdong has officially issued relevant regulations on the management of official vehicles for provincial - level government agencies and public institutions, promoting the use of new energy vehicles. - In March 2025, XPeng Motors delivered 33,205 smart electric vehicles, a year - on - year increase of 268%, and has delivered over 30,000 vehicles for five consecutive months. In the first quarter of 2025, XPeng Motors delivered a total of 94,008 smart electric vehicles, a year - on - year increase of 331%. - Xiaomi Auto added 15 stores in March, with 235 stores in 65 cities across the country. As of March 31, there were 127 service outlets covering 75 cities. In April, 33 new stores are planned to be added in 7 cities. - Li Auto's sales target for this year is 700,000 vehicles, with an internal expectation of 50,000 pure - electric vehicle sales and a supply - chain expectation of at least 140,000. The sales target for extended - range models is between 560,000 and 650,000 vehicles, with a monthly average of 46,700 - 54,100 vehicles. - In March, China's manufacturing PMI, non - manufacturing PMI, and composite PMI were 50.5%, 50.8%, and 51.4% respectively, up 0.3, 0.4, and 0.3 percentage points from the previous month, rising for two consecutive months. The construction industry PMI reached a new high since June 2024, indicating an obvious economic recovery trend [2].

21世纪经济报道记者 焦文娟 北京报道 "如果说上半场的电动化是改善性的，那么智能化的下半场是颠覆性的。"比亚迪董事长王传福今日在 2025中国电动汽车百人会论坛上表示。 王传福透露，2024年，我国新能源汽车渗透率达47%，增长了12个百分点，而且连续多个月超过了 50%。2024年，在新能源渗透率上升浪潮中，比亚迪以427万辆的成绩超越上汽集团，登顶中国汽车市 场销量冠军。 "新能源汽车已在市场中占据主流地位，今年行业渗透率进一步提升。"王传福预测。2025年1月至2月， 比亚迪依旧以累计销量62.3万辆稳坐第一。 王传福认为，在智能化的下半场，其变革更快，可能就是2到3年。"以前我们用新能源汽车的渗透率来 衡量行业的发展速度，从今年起还要用高阶智驾来推动行业的高质量发展。"王传福在百人会论坛现场 表示。 对于智能化的重视，从比亚迪今年开年的动作可见一斑。今年2月开始，比亚迪频频打出技术牌，包括 天神之眼全民智驾、灵鸢系统、超级e平台的兆瓦闪充技术和首搭在仰望U7上的云辇-Z，从"技术鱼 池"中捞出技术释放，在智驾、车生态和电动化上全面发力。仅在2025年3月，比亚迪将会举办7场新车 及技术发布会。 在竞 ...

Core Viewpoint - CATL's 2024 annual report shows a significant decline in revenue for the first time since its IPO in 2018, with total revenue of 362 billion yuan, down 9.7% year-on-year, while net profit increased by 15% to 50.7 billion yuan, indicating a challenging market environment for the company [2][12]. Group 1: Financial Performance - The company's revenue decline is attributed to increased sales volume of lithium batteries but decreased prices, a trend seen across the industry [4]. - CATL achieved lithium-ion battery sales of 475 GWh in 2024, a year-on-year increase of 21.79%, with power battery sales at 381 GWh (up 18.85%) and energy storage battery sales at 93 GWh (up 34.32%) [5]. - Despite the revenue drop, CATL's gross margin improved from 19.19% in 2023 to 24.44% in 2024, showcasing effective cost reduction strategies [11]. Group 2: Market Trends - The penetration rate of new energy vehicles in China has approached 50%, indicating a mature market [3]. - The growth rate of CATL's power batteries has significantly slowed, dropping from 107.97% in 2022 to 18.85% in 2024, suggesting the company is nearing its growth ceiling [7]. - CATL's market share in the global energy storage battery sector has declined from 43.4% in 2022 to 36.5% in 2024, highlighting increasing competition [9]. Group 3: Future Outlook - The ability of CATL to return to revenue growth in 2025 hinges on the recovery of lithium battery prices, which are expected to remain under pressure due to supply exceeding demand [14][15]. - Projections indicate that the global lithium carbonate price may stabilize between 70,000 to 120,000 yuan per ton in 2025, with potential downward pressure on prices [16][19]. - Long-term growth concerns arise from competition as automakers begin to develop their own batteries, particularly solid-state batteries, which could challenge CATL's market dominance [23][25]. Group 4: Strategic Initiatives - CATL is investing in the construction of battery swap stations, with plans to build 1,000 by 2025 and a long-term goal of 30,000 stations, which could enhance its market position [29]. - The company holds significant cash reserves of 303.5 billion yuan, indicating potential for strategic investments or initiatives to bolster its competitive edge [28].

摘要 ► 本 周数据： 2025 年 3 月第 1 周（ 3.3-3.9 ）乘用车销量 35.8 万辆，同比 +16.2% ，环比 -12.1% ；新能源乘用车销量 20.2 万辆，同比 +36.2% ，环比 -7.5% ；新能源渗透率 56.5% ，环比 +2.8pct 。 ► 本周行情 ： 汽车板块本周表现强于市场 本周（3月10-14日）A股汽车板块上涨1.38%，在申万子行业中排名第19位，表现强于沪深300（+1.33%）。细分板块中，摩托车及其他、汽车服务、商用 载客车、汽车零部件、乘用车分别上涨3.75%、2.03%、1.91%、1.61%、0.90%，商用载货车下跌0.79%。 ► 本周观点： 本月建议关注核心组合【比亚迪、吉利汽车、小鹏汽车、小米集团、伯特利、拓普集团、新泉股份、沪光股份、春风动力】。 ► 乘用车基本面向上 智驾平权提振估值。 根据乘用车上险数据，2月第3/4/5周乘用车销量分别33.9/37.0/40.7万辆，新能源渗透率分别50.6%/54.8%/53.8%；3月第1周乘用车销量35.8万辆，新能 源渗透率56.5%，受益补贴政策，年后车市需求及新能源渗透率均快速恢复。分 ...

Investment Rating - The report indicates a positive outlook for the new energy vehicle battery box industry, driven by increasing penetration rates and supportive national policies [1]. Core Insights - The new energy vehicle battery box is a critical component of the battery pack, characterized by high customer barriers, continuous upgrades with battery integration technology, and a strong correlation with the new energy vehicle industry [1][7][10]. - The market for new energy vehicle battery boxes is expected to grow significantly, with a projected compound annual growth rate (CAGR) of 76.59% from 2020 to 2024, increasing from 2.734 billion RMB to 26.586 billion RMB [27][28]. - The industry is transitioning towards lightweight and sustainable solutions, with innovations in battery integration technologies such as CTP and CTB expected to drive further growth [14][30]. Industry Definition - New energy vehicle battery boxes serve as the "skeleton" of the battery pack, requiring safety, protection, and sealing capabilities to ensure the normal operation of the battery system [2]. Industry Classification - The battery boxes can be classified based on battery system integration technologies into CTM, CTP, and CTC/CTB types [3][4][5][6]. Industry Characteristics - High customer barriers exist due to the need for collaboration among vehicle manufacturers, battery manufacturers, and battery box suppliers [7]. - The industry is closely linked to the new energy vehicle market, with market size directly correlated to the growth of new energy vehicles [10]. Development History - The market has evolved alongside the new energy vehicle industry, with significant growth observed post-2015 as CTP technology gained traction [11][13]. - The current phase emphasizes green and sustainable development, focusing on lightweight and environmentally friendly materials [14]. Industry Chain Analysis - The industry chain consists of upstream raw materials (aluminum alloys, carbon fiber composites), midstream manufacturing, and downstream applications primarily in electric and hybrid vehicles [15][25]. - Domestic companies dominate the market, leveraging local advantages to meet customer needs effectively [16]. Market Size - The market size is projected to grow from 27.34 billion RMB in 2020 to 265.86 billion RMB by 2024, with a CAGR of 76.59% [27]. - By 2029, the market is expected to reach 583.14 billion RMB, indicating sustained growth [27]. Competitive Landscape - The competitive landscape features a tiered structure, with leading companies like Sensata Technologies, Huayu Automotive, and New Aluminum Era holding significant market shares [36][37]. - Traditional automotive parts manufacturers have quickly entered the battery box market, leveraging existing production capabilities and customer relationships [37]. Company Overview - New Aluminum Era focuses on lightweight aluminum materials for automotive applications, holding a strong position in the market with significant R&D investments [39][41]. - The company has shown rapid revenue growth, with battery box revenue constituting a growing percentage of its total income [41].

Group 1 - The performance of China's new energy vehicles continues to improve, with a production increase of 38.7% in 2024, reaching 13.168 million units [6] - Tesla's CEO Elon Musk stated that a 1000% profit growth in the next five years is possible, with a projected profit increase of 258% compared to other major tech companies [2] - Tesla's net profit reached $14.997 billion in 2023, with a compound annual growth rate of 175.02% since its first profitable year in 2020 [2] Group 2 - Tesla's 2024 sales are projected to decline by 1.1% year-on-year, marking the first sales drop since 2013, with a significant 10% decrease in the U.S. market [3] - In January 2024, Tesla's sales in Europe fell by 45%, with Germany experiencing its lowest monthly sales since July 2021 [3] - Domestic competitors like BYD and Geely reported significant sales increases in February 2024, with BYD's sales surpassing 320,000 units, a 164% year-on-year growth [5] Group 3 - The automotive sector is experiencing widespread growth, with over 64 out of 150 automotive stocks reporting profit increases, and 14 companies turning losses into profits [6][7] - Notable profit forecasts include Guojin Automotive and Huguang Co., with expected net profit increases of over 1000% [7] - The overall trend indicates that the automotive industry will continue to see opportunities, particularly in the new energy vehicle segment and the expansion of domestic brands [7]