Core Viewpoint - There is a significant shift in market expectations regarding the Federal Reserve's potential interest rate cut in December, driven by concerns over the labor market and recent statements from key officials [2][3]. Group 1: Economic Indicators - The unemployment rate rose to 4.4% in September, the highest level in nearly four years, indicating a deteriorating labor market [2]. - The labor market is showing signs of "low hiring, low firing," suggesting it may be at a critical point of worsening [2]. - Economists express concerns that the current economic situation exhibits stagflation characteristics, with high inflation and high unemployment coexisting [7]. Group 2: Federal Reserve Officials' Statements - New York Fed President John Williams, a close ally of Fed Chair Jerome Powell, publicly advocated for a rate cut, stating there is still room for further adjustments [3][5]. - The market's interpretation of Williams' comments led to a surge in the probability of a December rate cut from nearly 40% to over 70% [3]. - The communication from top Fed officials is carefully calibrated to convey clear policy intentions while avoiding excessive market reactions [5][6]. Group 3: Internal Disagreements - Despite the growing consensus for a rate cut, some Fed officials, like Boston Fed President Collins and Dallas Fed President Logan, expressed hesitance, citing inflation concerns [7]. - There are fundamental disagreements within the Fed regarding whether current policy is tight or loose, with some officials worried about inflation while others argue that key sectors remain under financial stress [7][8]. - The upcoming vote on the rate decision is expected to be contentious, with the final decision likely made during the meeting [9]. Group 4: Contextual Factors - The upcoming meeting will occur in a "data vacuum" due to the prolonged government shutdown, limiting the Fed's access to the latest employment and inflation data [10]. - The concept of "insurance rate cuts" is being considered, where the Fed may cut rates while monitoring the economic response [10]. - Officials opposing the rate cut are signaling that the Fed is not cutting rates merely for the sake of it, which could prevent higher inflation expectations in the bond market [10].

在阅读文章前，辛苦您点下"关注"，方便讨论和分享。作者定会不负众望，按时按量创作出 更优质的内容。 文|功夫鱼 前 言 一边是新增11.9万就业的"亮眼成绩单"，一边是股市暴跌、企业裁员的"冰冷现实"，美国9月就业数据刚 一公布，就把所有人搞懵了，看似回暖的经济背后，藏着年轻人失业率飙升、行业两极分化的暗礁，更 诡异的是连向来"护短"的福克斯新闻都开始唱衰，这波经济迷局到底该怎么解？ 数据"拆盲盒"： 9月美国就业数据刚新鲜出炉，10月的数据却要等到下个月才肯露面，这波操作直接让美联储犯了难， 等他们开议息会议讨论降息这事时，手里连10月的就业底牌都没有。 更关键的是美联储早就放话了，降息这事儿可能要黄，要知道市场之前都把降息当成"救命稻草"，盼得 那叫一个热切，结果预期落空，昨天股市直接给了个下马威，跌得那叫一个难看，说白了就是"希望越 大，失望越大"。 行业"冰火歌" 从行业分布来看，新增就业简直是"冰火两重天"，医疗保健和餐饮行业成了最大赢家，医疗保健新增 4.3万个岗位，餐饮行业新增3.7万个，妥妥的"香饽饽"行业。 但其他行业就没这么幸运了，大多是"凄凄惨惨戚戚"，交通运输和仓储业少了2.5万个岗位 ...

英伟达"炸裂"财报之后，全球市场情绪又突变，AI泡沫担忧重新袭来，美股一夜大反转。 与此同时，美国经济数据一团乱麻，特朗普疯狂想炒掉鲍威尔。 美东时间周三，特朗普公开痛批鲍威尔"极度无能"，直言很想将其解雇。 面对财政部长贝森特的极力劝阻，他表示，"贝森特唯一的失误就是美联储政策"，若美联储不降息，他 将解雇贝森特。 周四，美国经济数据公布后，贝森特随即表态，呼吁美联储"关注数据，继续其降息周期。" 救命稻草 特朗普执着换帅的背后，是关税困局与政治压力的双重驱动。 当前美国经济正站在"滞胀"悬崖边缘：国际货币基金组织11月最新报告显示，2025年美国经济增长率预 计为2.0%，显著低于2024年的2.8%，在发达经济体中复苏动能较弱。 耶鲁大学关税研究中心发布的数据显示，截至10月16日，美国消费者当前面临的总体平均有效关税税率 飙升至17.9%，为1934年以来的最高水平。 这直接推动美国PCE指数上涨，生活成本高企让美国家庭倍感压力。 据路透社/益普索最新民调显示，特朗普的支持率跌至38%，这是他重返白宫以来的最低水平，主要原 因在于美国人对他在处理生活成本和针对爱泼斯坦的调查方面表示不满。 在此背景下， ...

盘前市场动向 1. 11月19日(周三)美股盘前，美股三大股指期货齐涨。截至发稿，道指期货涨0.25%，标普500指数期货涨0.45%，纳指期货涨 0.53%。 | = US 30 | 46,205.80 | 46,216.30 | 45,992.00 | +114.10 | +0.25% | | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | | = US 500 | 6,646.90 | 6,648.60 | 6,594.60 | +29.50 | +0.45% | | = US Tech 100 | 24,633.90 | 24,641.30 | 24,366.90 | +130.80 | +0.53% | 2. 截至发稿，德国DAX指数涨0.40%，英国富时100指数涨0.15%，法国CAC40指数涨0.05%，欧洲斯托克50指数涨0.18%。 | 德国DAX30 | 23,264.66 | 23,264.66 | 23,105.52 | +91.61 | +0.40% | | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | | 器 英国富时100 | ...

Group 1: Macro Economic Outlook - The report highlights a positive macroeconomic outlook for 2026, with expectations of economic recovery driven by supportive monetary and fiscal policies in the US and globally [1][3][4] - The US economy is projected to experience a soft landing as inflation expectations have improved, with CPI growth remaining below 3.0% as of September 2025 [21][34] - Global liquidity is expected to remain accommodative, with major economies shifting focus from inflation control to growth stabilization, potentially leading to a synchronized recovery in global trade [1][3][4] Group 2: Domestic Economic Resilience - The report emphasizes the resilience of the domestic economy, with internal risk management showing positive results, particularly in addressing local government debt and stabilizing small financial institutions [2][4][6] - Consumer spending is identified as a key driver of economic growth, supported by ongoing government policies aimed at boosting domestic demand [4][6][8] - Investment quality is expected to improve, transitioning from quantity-focused to quality-focused investments, with significant policy support anticipated in the "15th Five-Year Plan" [4][6][8] Group 3: Policy Environment - The macro policy outlook suggests a continuation of proactive fiscal and monetary measures, with expectations of sustained investment growth driven by major projects in 2026 [6][8][39] - Consumer subsidy policies are likely to persist, aimed at enhancing purchasing power and stimulating consumption [6][8][39] - The real estate sector is entering a monitoring phase, with potential for continued policy support if economic pressures remain [6][8][39] Group 4: Asset Allocation Strategy - The report maintains a positive outlook on equity markets, anticipating a gradual upward trend, with growth and cyclical sectors expected to perform well [4][6][8] - Bond markets may face constraints due to low interest rates, but opportunities for trading exist as rates decline [4][6][8] - Long-term prospects for gold remain favorable, with expectations of continued appreciation in the RMB exchange rate [4][6][8]

Group 1: Gold Market - The gold market is experiencing a super bull market, with the London gold price rising from $2,624 per ounce at the beginning of 2025 to a peak of $4,381 per ounce, representing a maximum increase of approximately 67% [1][12][16] - Key drivers of the gold bull market in 2025 include the ongoing interest rate cut cycle by the Federal Reserve, a weakening US dollar that fell below the critical support level of 100, and geopolitical uncertainties that have heightened market risk aversion [1][20][24] - For 2026, the outlook for gold remains positive due to expected continued central bank purchases, ongoing liquidity support from the end of the balance sheet reduction cycle, and high fiscal deficits under the "beautiful big plan" which may weaken fiscal discipline [1][34][41] Group 2: Copper Market - The copper market has shown strong performance, with LME copper prices increasing by 24% as of November 12, 2025, driven by macroeconomic factors such as US interest rate cuts and fiscal expansion, alongside supply disruptions [2][15] - The outlook for 2026 remains solid, with expectations of significant supply constraints from copper mines and robust demand from sectors like renewable energy and AI-related electricity needs [2][21][22] - The anticipated continuation of tariffs and the concentration of copper inventories in the US are expected to maintain price premiums for COMEX copper over LME copper [2][41] Group 3: Aluminum Market - The aluminum market is expected to see price increases and valuation adjustments due to rigid supply constraints and steady demand growth, with domestic electrolytic aluminum capacity nearing its limit [3][44] - The aluminum sector has begun to catch up with the overall non-ferrous metal sector after a period of relative stagnation, with aluminum prices breaking previous highs [3][42] - Strong cash flow and dividend capabilities among listed companies in the aluminum sector highlight the attractiveness of this market, with potential for further valuation increases [3][44]

Economic Overview - The current U.S. economy exhibits a K-shaped characteristic, indicating a significant disparity where some sectors are thriving while others are struggling [1][3] - This K-shaped economy is attributed to various factors including policies from the Trump administration, accelerated technological advancements, and the Federal Reserve's monetary policies [1][3] Wealth Disparity - Wealth inequality has intensified, with stock and real estate markets reaching new highs due to loose fiscal and monetary policies, benefiting the wealthy who own assets [1][3] - In contrast, ordinary citizens relying on wage income have seen their purchasing power severely eroded by inflation [1][3] Industry Disparity - Industries such as technology, finance, and remote work have flourished, while sectors like tourism, dining, retail, and entertainment have been severely impacted, leading to job losses in low-skill positions [1][3] - The disparity is further highlighted by the performance of large multinational corporations, which have better access to credit and resources compared to small and medium-sized enterprises that face closures due to cash flow issues [3] Labor Market Dynamics - The U.S. labor market is showing signs of weakness, with a reported 3% year-over-year increase in the Consumer Price Index (CPI) and a rise in the unemployment rate to 4.3%, the highest since November 2021 [3][4] - The Federal Reserve has responded by lowering the federal funds rate by 25 basis points to a range of 3.75%-4.00%, marking the second rate cut of the year [3][4] Impact of Technology - The surge in AI-related capital expenditures is projected to contribute significantly to GDP growth, with estimates suggesting a 0.7 percentage point increase in real GDP growth from Q4 2024 to Q2 2025 [4] - The disconnect between productivity gains from technological advancements and the labor market is evident, with productivity in the non-farm sector expected to rise by 3.3% year-over-year by Q2 2025 [4] Immigration Policy Effects - Restrictive immigration policies have contributed to a slowdown in the labor market, with net immigration numbers expected to drop significantly [5] - The decline in available labor has made it challenging for businesses to fill positions, further exacerbating employment growth issues [5] Federal Reserve's Role - The Federal Reserve's tightening monetary policy, including 11 rate hikes from March 2022 to July 2023, has been identified as a factor exacerbating the K-shaped economy [6] - The disparity in wealth distribution is influenced by high-interest rates, which disproportionately affect lower-income households [6] Economic Outlook - The likelihood of a comprehensive recession in the U.S. is currently low, but the risk of stagflation remains a pressing concern due to potential economic slowdowns and persistent inflation [7] - The Federal Reserve faces challenges in balancing the need for demand stimulation through rate cuts while managing inflationary pressures [7] Structural Reforms Needed - Addressing the K-shaped economic trend requires structural reforms, including adjustments in tax policies and increased investment in education to enhance productivity and job creation [8][9] - Ensuring equitable distribution of the benefits from technological advancements, particularly AI, is crucial for mitigating the adverse effects on lower-income households [9]

今日 Ultima Markets 为您带来了美联储内部分歧与 12 月降息前景的深度解析。 关键词：美联储、内部分歧、12 月降息、滞胀、鹰鸽之争、利率政策、经济数据 简介：聚焦美联储内部鹰鸽两派围绕降息的激烈博弈，解析滞胀背景下通胀与劳动力市场的核心矛盾， 探讨数据真空与政策分歧对利率路径的影响，助您把握降息预期波动中的市场机遇与风险。 美国降息路径因美联储内部出现的新分歧而变得不明朗，这种分歧在美联储主席鲍威尔（Jerome Powell）近八年的任期内几乎没有先例。 美联储官员对于持续通胀与劳动力市场疲软中哪一项构成更大威胁存在分歧。即使官方经济数据恢复发 布，可能也无法弥合这些分歧。 这一裂痕使不到两个月前看起来可行的降息计划变得复杂，不过投资者们仍认为，美联储在下次政策会 议上降息的可能性仍然大于不降息的可能性。 9月份，当政策制定者同意降息0.25个百分点时，19名美联储官员中有10人（占微弱多数）初步预计在 10月和12月会继续降息。若实现连续三次会议降息，将与鲍威尔去年和2019年所做的下调利率的节奏如 出一辙。 但一部分鹰派官员对进一步降息的必要性提出质疑。在美联储官员们于10月底再次降息 ...

其次，月度就业增长从去年的十六点八万人骤降至截至八月前三个月的月均两点九万人，这一急剧下滑的原因解读引发分歧。如果源于企业用工需求疲软， 维持高利率可能引发衰退；若是移民减少导致劳动力供给萎缩，降息则可能导致需求过度刺激。 第三，关于当前利率是否仍具限制性，两部分观点也截然不同。一部分人认为，今年累计降息五十个基点后，利率已达或接近中性水平，进一步降息存在风 险。另一部分则坚信利率仍具限制性，美联储尚有空间支持劳动力市场而不会重燃通胀。 素有"新美联储通讯社"之称的著名记者Nick Timiraos近日发布报告指出，美联储内部正面临罕见的分歧，导致降息之路愈发扑朔迷离。这种程度的内部分歧 在鲍威尔近八年的任期内几乎未有先例，使得两个月前还看似可行的连续降息计划变得复杂难测。 目前美联储官员们在持续的通胀压力与疲软的劳动力市场哪个威胁更大的问题上产生严重分歧。这种分裂状态甚至可能无法通过即将恢复发布的官方经济数 据得以弥合。尽管利率市场投资者仍认为美联储下次会议降息的可能性略大于不降息，但政策路径的不确定性已显著增加。 根据Timiraos的分析，美联储内部主要在三个关键问题上存在明显分歧，这些分歧将共同决定未 ...

Core Viewpoint - The U.S. economy is currently experiencing a negative chain reaction characterized by declining income, shrinking consumption, and weak employment, exacerbated by the pervasive influence of AI on various economic sectors [2][4]. Group 1: Economic Downturn - The cyclical downturn in the U.S. economy has become increasingly evident since the beginning of the year, with key indicators such as employment, consumption, and service sectors showing continuous decline [5]. - Tariff policies have significantly disrupted the economic rhythm, leading to a preemptive economic activity surge in early months, followed by a consistent decline in consumer spending and inventory accumulation starting in May [9]. - The sales volume of corrugated boxes, a retail barometer, hit a 10-year low in Q3, reflecting the current sluggish state of U.S. consumer spending [9][10]. - Consumer confidence has dropped to its lowest level since June 2022, with the Michigan Consumer Sentiment Index at 50.3, indicating deteriorating economic performance [17]. Group 2: Temporary Shocks - The U.S. government shutdown has become a significant economic and livelihood crisis, lasting 43 days, surpassing the previous record [18]. - The shutdown has put immense pressure on the job market, affecting approximately 2.3 million federal employees and contractors, leading to reduced consumer spending and potential public safety risks [19]. - The shutdown has resulted in an estimated $24 billion in federal spending being paused, with projections indicating a 0.1% economic growth decline for each week of the shutdown, potentially leading to a 2% drop in Q4 growth [19]. - The economic pressure is extending from the middle class to low-income groups, with SNAP benefits halved, impacting retail sales by an estimated 1.5%-2% [22]. Group 3: Structural Distortions - There is a notable "K-shaped" divergence in U.S. exports, with AI-related sectors performing exceptionally well while traditional consumer goods exports continue to weaken [23]. - AI investments are driving demand for chips and related infrastructure, while simultaneously causing electricity prices to rise due to increased consumption from AI data centers, which now account for about 5% of the U.S. power generation [24]. - AI-related job cuts are occurring as companies streamline operations, with significant layoffs reported by major tech firms like Amazon and Meta, further exacerbating employment pressures [28]. - The economic landscape is increasingly polarized, with high-end consumer spending remaining robust while lower-income consumers face significant financial strain, leading to a shift towards discount retailers [29].