据央视新闻，当地时间8月5日，美国总统特朗普表示，可能很快宣布美联储新任主席，美联储理事的人 选决定将于本周末做出。 美国总统特朗普在接受美国消费者新闻与商业频道（CNBC）采访时表示，他已将潜在的未来美联储主 席范围缩小到四名候选人，该名单不包括财政部长斯科特·贝森特。 | < . AMD US 空 | 超微半导体 > @ Q | | --- | --- | | 177.990 昨收 176.780 量比 | 1.06 | | 174.310 172.291 市值 2826.3亿 换 | 4.92% | | -2.470 -1.40% 开 177.565 市盈™ 126.91 额 138.68亿 | | 超微电脑股价盘后跌超14%，因季度盈利前景令人失望。 | 57.260 % | 57.4UU DFYX 30.23U 里山 I.UI 56.790 市值 341.74亿 换 | 9.10% | | --- | --- | --- | | -0.970 -1.67% 开 | 58.810 市盈™ 28.33 额 | 26.10亿 | | 盘后 49.000 -8.260 - - 14.43% ⊙ 17:16 ...

Core Viewpoint - The article highlights a significant downturn in the U.S. stock market, driven by disappointing service sector data, raising concerns about the economic outlook and potential market corrections [2][5][10]. Group 1: Market Performance - U.S. stock indices experienced a decline, with the Dow Jones dropping approximately 100 points and both the Nasdaq and S&P 500 falling around 0.5% [2]. - Technology stocks collectively fell, with notable declines in companies such as ARM (-2.83%), TSMC (-2.78%), and Nvidia (-1.73%) [4]. Group 2: Service Sector Data - The ISM services index showed almost zero growth in July, indicating stagnation and raising concerns about stagflation, characterized by high inflation and low employment [5]. - The services sector, which constitutes about 70% of the U.S. economy, is showing signs of slowdown, with the services index dropping to 50.1, below economists' expectations [5]. - The employment index fell to 46.4, marking its fourth contraction in five months and reaching one of the lowest levels since the pandemic [5]. Group 3: Economic Concerns - Businesses are facing challenges from high tariffs, cautious consumer behavior, and uncertainties stemming from former President Trump's policies [6]. - The new orders index decreased to 50.3, nearing stagnation, while 11 service industries reported growth, and 7 experienced contraction, with the largest decline in accommodation and food services [7]. Group 4: Market Predictions - Major Wall Street firms, including Morgan Stanley and Deutsche Bank, are warning investors to prepare for potential market corrections, with predictions of a 10% to 15% decline in the S&P 500 in the coming weeks [10][11]. - The S&P 500's relative strength index (RSI) reached 76, indicating overbought conditions, and historical data suggests that August and September are typically weak months for the index [11].

Report Investment Rating - Gold: ★★★, indicating a more distinct long trend with relatively appropriate investment opportunities currently [1] - Silver: ★★★, indicating a more distinct long trend with relatively appropriate investment opportunities currently [1] Core View - The precious metals are in a volatile trend. With the geopolitical situation cooling down and tariff policies gradually implemented, the market focus has shifted to the US economy and the prospects of interest rate cuts. Amid continuous verification, market sentiment will face fluctuations. If the scenarios of stagflation or even recession become clearer, the upside potential for gold may be reopened. Maintain the idea of buying on dips during the precious metals' volatile trend [1] Other Key Points Economic Data and Market Reaction - Last week, the US released multiple economic data. The annualized quarterly GDP growth rate in Q2 rebounded by 3% more than expected, and the weekly initial jobless claims remained low. However, the key non - farm payrolls data changed unexpectedly. The non - farm payrolls in July increased by 73,000, far lower than the expected 110,000, and the previous two months' data was revised down by 258,000 jobs. Trump claimed that the non - farm employment data was manipulated and instructed his team to fire the Bureau of Labor Statistics director immediately. The market's concerns about the authenticity of economic data and the US economic outlook have intensified [1] Fed Policy and Market Expectations - The Fed kept interest rates unchanged as expected at its July FOMC meeting. Powell reiterated that future policies will be determined based on economic data. With the significant decline in non - farm payrolls, traders fully priced in two Fed rate cuts by the end of the year, and the probability of a rate cut in September rose to 90%. Fed's Daly said that the time for rate cuts is approaching, and it is more likely to cut rates more than twice this year [1][2] Tariff - related News - The EU will suspend trade counter - measures against the US for 6 months and is waiting for Trump to take action on auto tariffs and exemptions this week. Trump said he will significantly increase tariff rates on India because the country buys Russian oil, and India responded that the accusation is baseless. The Swiss government plans to continue talks with the US after August 7 and is determined to make a more attractive proposal to the US [2]

| 贵金属日评20250805: 欧盟对美国贸易反制措施暂停6个月,美联储下半年或降息三次 | 交易日期 | 较昨日变化 | 较上周变化 | | | | | | | | | | | | | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | | 2025-08-04 | 2025-08-01 | 2025-07-29 | 收盘价 | 781. 42 | 770. 72 | 10. 70 | 9. 98 | 771.44 | | | | | | | | 成交量 | 271828.00 | 189185.00 | 219932.00 | 82, 643. 00 | 51, 896. 00 | 期货活跃合约 | 持包量 | 217696.00 | 218768. 00 | 212407.00 | -1, 072. 00 | 5, 289. 00 | | | | 库存(十克) | 35889.00 | 35745.00 | 31263.00 | 144.00 | 4, 626. 00 | 上 ...

美联储继续按兵不动 当地时间7月30日，美国联邦储备委员会负责制定隔夜拆借利率的公开市场委员会（FMOC）结束议息会议，决定将联邦基金利率目标区间维持在4.25%至 4.50%之间不变。 美联储议息会议通常每年安排八次，今年议息会议时间分别为1月、3月、5月、6月、7月、9月、11月和12月。自去年9月起美联储连续三次降息，合计降 幅达到100个基点，自今年1月特朗普上台以来，美联储连续五次维持利率不变。 这可把特朗普气坏了。他在第一任期期间任命鲍威尔担任美联储主席，没有想到鲍威尔如此桀骜不驯，完全不配合他的政治意图。7月18日，他在社交媒 体上说，鲍威尔是他任命过的最糟糕的官员之一。前一天在会见巴林王储讨论中东和平时，特朗普忽然骂起了鲍威尔，照例骂得很难听，有脱口秀主持人 开玩笑说："不了解的人还以为鲍威尔被拍到抱着特朗普的老婆听音乐会。"特朗普还对一脸懵圈的巴林王储说："我很惊讶，这样一个人竟然会被任命为 美联储主席，是拜登任命的。" 去年特朗普竞选总统时就对鲍威尔深表不满，他认为鲍威尔不懂金融，鲍威尔制定货币政策时应该听他的。就任总统后，特朗普就一直喊话鲍威尔降息， 然而鲍威尔充耳不闻，连续五次按兵不动 ...

Core Viewpoint - Recent surge in gold prices is attributed to multiple factors including economic fundamentals, monetary policy, trade policy, and geopolitical risks [4] Group 1: Economic Factors - Weak U.S. economic data, including a July PMI of 48.0 and disappointing non-farm payrolls, has diminished market confidence [6] - Non-farm employment increased by only 73,000 in July, significantly below the expected 110,000, with the unemployment rate rising from 4.1% to 4.2% [6] - Historical trends indicate that gold tends to outperform other asset classes during stagflation, as seen in the 1970s [8] Group 2: Monetary Policy Expectations - The weak employment data has increased the likelihood of a rate cut by the Federal Reserve, with the probability for a September cut rising from 38% to 90% [10] - Historical data shows that Fed rate cut cycles are often accompanied by rising gold prices, with increases of approximately 30% during the 2007-2008 financial crisis and over 40% during the 2019-2020 rate cut cycle [12] - Recent tensions within the Fed, including dissenting votes on monetary policy, suggest potential shifts in policy direction [10] Group 3: Geopolitical and Trade Factors - Recent trade tensions, including high tariffs imposed by the U.S. on various countries, contribute to the upward pressure on gold prices [13] - Ongoing geopolitical conflicts and central banks' increasing gold purchases are also supporting gold's appeal as a safe-haven asset [20] Group 4: Investment Trends - Global central banks added 166 tons of gold in Q2, with 95% of surveyed central banks expecting to increase their gold reserves in the next 12 months [22] - Gold ETF investments have surged, with inflows of 170 tons in Q2 and a total of 397 tons in the first half of the year, marking the highest level since 2020 [23] - Domestic funds are increasingly investing in gold ETFs, with significant inflows and a growing fund size [24] Group 5: Technical Analysis - Recent technical indicators suggest that gold may have completed its adjustment phase, with key resistance levels surpassed [26] - Market sentiment is turning optimistic, as reflected in increased net long positions by fund managers [28] - Major investment banks, including Citigroup, have raised their gold price forecasts, indicating bullish sentiment for the near term [28]

| FERENS 贵金属日评20250804: 美国7月新增非农远不及预期, 市场预期美联储下半年或降息三次 | | | --- | --- | | 交易日期 2025-08-01 2025-07-31 2025-07-28 较昨日变化 较上周变化 | | | 上海黄金 收盘价 767.18 766. 58 771.58 0. 60 -4. 40 | | | 持仓重 206334.00 207044.00 -710.00 210216.00 -3, 882. 00 价差(近月与远月) 近月连续-远月活跃 -3.28 -3. 48 -2.78 0. 20 -0. 50 | | | 基差(现货与期货) 现货价格-期货价格 -3.54 -3. 70 -3. 20 0.16 -0. 34 收盘价 8918.00 9008.00 9212. 00 -90. 00 -294.00 | | | 交易日期 2025-08-01 2025-07-31 2025-07-24 较昨日变化 较上周变化 收盘价 3342. 30 3416. 00 3371.30 73. 70 44. 70 | | | 伦敦黄金现货 伦敦金现 3346 ...

1. Report Industry Investment Rating - Not provided in the content 2. Core View of the Report - The weakening US job market has increased the market's expectation of the Fed's interest rate cut. However, due to the traditional consumption off - season in China suppressing downstream demand, the total inventory of electrolytic copper at home and abroad has been fluctuating upwards. As a result, there may still be room for the Shanghai copper price to decline. It is recommended that investors hold their previous short positions cautiously and pay attention to key support and resistance levels for Shanghai copper, London copper, and US copper [2]. 3. Summary by Relevant Catalogs Market Data - **Shanghai Copper Futures**: On August 1, 2025, the closing price of the active contract was 78,400 yuan, up 360 yuan from the previous day; the trading volume was 80,943 lots, a decrease of 28,068 lots; the open interest was 167,671 lots, a decrease of 8,522 lots; the inventory was 20,349 tons, an increase of 727 tons; the average price of SMM 1 electrolytic copper was 78,330 yuan, a decrease of 235 yuan [2]. - **Shanghai Copper Basis and Spreads**: The Shanghai copper basis was - 70 yuan, a decrease of 595 yuan; the spot premium or discount in different regions had different changes, such as a 5 - yuan increase in Guangzhou, a 10 - yuan decrease in North China, and no change in East China; the spreads between different contract months also changed, with the spread between the near - month and the first - continuous contract decreasing by 70 yuan, and the spreads between other contract months having corresponding increases or decreases [2]. - **London Copper**: On August 1, 2025, the closing price of the LME 3 - month copper futures (electronic trading) was 9,633 US dollars, up 26 US dollars from the previous day; the total inventory of registered and cancelled warrants was 0 tons, a decrease of 141,750 tons; the spreads between different contract periods also changed, with the 0 - 3 - month contract spread increasing by 1.51 US dollars and the 3 - 15 - month contract spread decreasing by 15.18 US dollars; the ratio of Shanghai - London copper price was 8.1387, an increase of 0.02 [2]. - **COMEX Copper**: On August 1, 2025, the closing price of the active copper futures contract was 4.443 US dollars, a decrease of 0.19 US dollars; the total inventory was 259,681 tons, an increase of 3,733 tons [2]. Industry News - **Policy Impact**: On July 30, 2025, the US government's decision on the Section 232 investigation of steel led to the exemption of import tariffs on electrolytic copper. The spread between COMEX copper and LME copper collapsed, causing a large amount of electrolytic copper to shift from COMEX warehouses to the LME delivery warehouse in New Orleans [2]. - **Mine Expansion**: Codelco planned to invest $5.7 billion in 2022 to expand the El Teniente mine, including three new ore layers. As of March 31, 2025, the Andes Norte project was 73% complete, the Andesita project was 70% complete and started operation in February 2025, and the Diamante project was 43% complete. The expansion project is expected to contribute 2 - 3 tons of copper production increment in 2025, reaching 15 tons after full - production. The annual output is expected to reach 50 tons after all projects are put into operation [2]. - **Accident**: A Chilean earthquake caused a casualty accident at Codelco's El Teniente copper mine, with 6 people reported dead, and operations in the accident area were suspended for investigation [2]. Market Supply and Demand - **Supply Side**: The production (import) volume of copper concentrates in China in August is expected to increase month - on - month. The import index of Chinese copper concentrates is negative and has increased compared to last week. The departure (arrival, inventory) volume of copper concentrates at Chinese ports has decreased compared to last week. The export restriction of high - quality scrap steel in Europe has limited Chinese importers to purchasing copper rice or brass. Uncertainty in Sino - US tariff negotiations has led to low direct imports of US scrap copper and indirect supply through countries like Japan, South Korea, and Thailand. The negative price difference between domestic electrolytic copper and bright and aged scrap steel has weakened the economic viability of scrap copper, closing the scrap copper import window and potentially reducing the production (import) volume of domestic scrap copper in August. Some copper smelters have suspended production, such as Glencore's PASAR copper smelter in the Philippines with a capacity of 200,000 tons, Zhongkuang Resources' Tsuneb copper smelter in Namibia (annual processing capacity of 240,000 tons of copper concentrates), and Glencore's Altonorte smelter in Chile with a capacity of 350,000 tons. The Congo's moa - Kakula copper smelter is expected to be completed and put into operation in June 2025, with an annual output of 500,000 tons. Liangshan Mining's 150,000 - ton copper reform project is in the pre - work stage, and the second rotary anode furnace of the pyrometallurgical system of the Yunnan Zhongyou Non - ferrous Recycling Copper Resource Recycling Base produced anode copper at the beginning of the month. The weekly processing fee for crude copper in northern (southern) China remained flat (increased) month - on - month, and the capacity of crude copper smelter maintenance in China in August may decrease month - on - month, potentially increasing the production (import) volume of domestic crude copper in August [2]. - **Demand Side**: The traditional consumption off - season in China has suppressed downstream demand [2].

美国物价飙涨，经济风雨飘摇：一场关税引发的风暴 美国经济正经历一场由关税引发的价格风暴。从日常用品到奢侈品，从小型企业到大型跨国公司，无一幸免于这场席卷全美的涨价潮。 这并非简单的价格 波动，而是关税政策引发的蝴蝶效应，正将美国经济推向悬崖边缘。 美联储主席鲍威尔紧急预警，关税冲击比预想更猛烈，企业难以承受成本压力，消费者钱包即将被榨干。他坦言，关税政策让美联储陷入"双重使命冲突"： 稳物价和保就业的目标正在相互撕扯。 纽约联储主席约翰·威廉姆斯警告，关税冲击才刚刚开始，并预测关税将在未来12个月内推高通胀约1个百分点。 富 国银行经济学家萨拉·豪斯指出，未来三到六个月是关键时刻，企业库存缓冲消耗殆尽后，新关税成本将完全转嫁给消费者。 前纽约联储主席杜德利发出滞 胀预警，分析当前经济面临增长疲软、通胀高企的组合，而美联储的利率工具对此束手无策。 美联储内部也出现分歧，部分理事主张维持利率不变以遏制 通胀，另一些则认为当前利率过于限制性。 特朗普持续施压降息，进一步加剧了市场的不确定性。 芝加哥期货交易所数据显示，咖啡豆期货价格三个月涨 45%，创2024年以来新高，贸易商仓库里的巴西生豆存货仅够维持两周。 结 ...

Group 1 - The article discusses the disparity in economic recovery in Hong Kong, highlighting a "jobless recovery" phenomenon where GDP is growing but employment is not improving [1][4][5] - Despite a reported 10 consecutive quarters of GDP growth and a 16-month rise in exports, many residents feel the economic situation is poor, with low consumer spending and business closures [2][3] - The term "jobless recovery" is used to describe the current economic state of Hong Kong, indicating a lack of job growth despite overall economic indicators suggesting recovery [4][7] Group 2 - The article references a podcast discussing the economic conditions in Hong Kong, questioning the true state of the economy and the reasons behind the perceived disparity in economic experiences [5] - The concept of "jobless recovery" has historical roots, having been used since the 1990s to describe situations where economic growth does not correlate with job growth [7] - The discussion includes the broader implications of creating new economic concepts to explain unusual economic phenomena, suggesting that language plays a crucial role in shaping economic understanding [8][12][20]