Core Insights - The cryptocurrency market is experiencing a correction, with Bitcoin dropping below $112,000, leading to over 110,000 liquidations in the past 24 hours [1] - The U.S. non-farm payroll data for July significantly underperformed expectations, indicating a rapid deterioration in the labor market, which has increased traders' bets on a potential interest rate cut by the Federal Reserve in September [1] - There is a rising concern about a U.S. economic recession, contributing to heightened risk aversion in the market [1] Market Analysis - Analysts from BiyaPay indicate that Bitcoin is currently in a consolidation phase since late June, with $115,000 identified as a critical support level [1] - If Bitcoin falls below $114,000, it may test the support range of $111,000 to $112,500 [1] - Long-term holders currently control 53% of the supply, suggesting that any significant selling pressure would require new capital inflows to stabilize the market [1]

Employment Data Summary - In July, the U.S. added 73,000 non-farm jobs, significantly below the expected 110,000[2] - The June non-farm data was revised down from 147,000 to 14,000, and May's from 144,000 to 19,000, totaling a downward revision of 258,000 jobs over two months[2] - The unemployment rate rose slightly to 4.2%, matching expectations, and the labor force participation rate decreased to 62.2%[2] Market Reactions - Following the non-farm report, major U.S. stock indices fell: S&P 500 down 1.6%, Nasdaq down 2.2%, and Dow Jones down 1.2%[3] - The 10-year U.S. Treasury yield dropped by 14.6 basis points to 4.22%, while the dollar index fell by 1.4% to 98.7[3] - Gold prices surged by 2.2% to $3,362.6 per ounce[3] Federal Reserve Outlook - The probability of a rate cut by the Federal Reserve in September increased from 40% to 87%[3] - Market expectations for rate cuts in 2023 rose from an average of 1.3 to 2.4 times, indicating at least two cuts are anticipated[3] Economic Assessment - The significant downward revision in non-farm data does not necessarily indicate an imminent recession, as high-frequency indicators remain strong[4] - The downward adjustments are attributed to government layoffs, increased immigration enforcement, and natural disasters affecting employment statistics[5] Seasonal Market Trends - Historically, August and September are weak months for overseas stock markets, with a potential shift to a risk-on environment if non-farm data improves in September or October[6]

经济寒冬：美国经济的断崖式下滑 美国经济正经历一场史无前例的寒冬。7月就业数据如同晴天霹雳，新增加就业岗位仅为7.3万，远低于市场预期11万的水平，骤降幅度高达30%。这直接导 致失业率飙升至4.2%，创下2021年底以来最差纪录，过去三个月共计25.8万人失去工作，相当于一个拉斯维加斯的全部劳动力凭空蒸发。数据公布后，市场 瞬间陷入恐慌，黄金价格在短短三分钟内暴涨470美元，华尔街交易员的叫骂声此起彼伏。 实体经济的关键部件正在陆续失灵。制造业PMI指数连续第四个月萎缩，德州炼油厂的检修时间比去年延长了两周。钢厂产能利用率跌破七成，废铁价格甚 至跌到了比废纸还便宜的地步。芝加哥食品配送公司的电动车队开始拆解电池变卖，老板痛哭流涕地说订单量根本无法支撑充电费用。库存积压更是压垮企 业的最后一根稻草。零售商的地下仓库塞满了去年囤积的卫衣，得州批发商对着发霉的沙发愁眉苦脸。纽约时装区的清仓价格跌破面料成本，珠宝商甚至将 碎钻当作亮片贱卖。美联航货机的舱位价格打到了三折，货运代理公司甚至推出了新的业务：帮助企业秘密转移库存到融资机构的仓库抵债。 这一切都预 示着，美国经济的寒冬远未结束。 " 这场经济灾难的冲击波迅 ...

真正的炸弹却在脚注里：5月数据从14.4万下修至惨淡的1.9万，6月数据从14.7万腰斩至1.4万。两个月合计下修25.8万人，相当于抹去近三个月全部新增岗 位。 美元指数应声崩盘，半小时暴跌150点。道指与标普500跌幅迅速突破1%，交易员们疯狂敲击键盘——利率期货市场对9月降息的押注概率从37%直冲82%。 亚特兰大联储主席博斯蒂克被迫向CNBC承认："今日数据及重大修正表明，经济和劳动力市场可能正在更广泛地走弱。" 8月1日，美国劳工部一份报告引发全球交易大厅惊呼。7月非农就业仅增7.3万人，不到预期11万的三分之二。 就业网站Glassdoor首席经济学家Daniel Zhao的形容精准如手术刀："我们终于进入飓风眼。经过数月预警，7月报告证实经济放缓已非将至，而是已经到 来"。这份报告揭穿了美国劳动力市场持续繁荣的假象。 此前三个月，非农数据似乎描绘着稳健复苏图景。当统计迷雾被吹散，人们惊觉就业引擎早已熄火。企业陷入"低招聘-低解雇"的僵化状态，在关税和高利 率的双重夹击下动弹不得。 更令人心惊的是失业率——从4.1%跃升至4.2%，突破鲍威尔反复强调的"充分就业"临界点。 市场反应比美联储会后的任 ...

美国就业数据意外"崩盘"。 今晚，美国劳工统计局发布的数据显示，美国7月新增非农就业人数骤降至7.3万人，大幅低于预期的10.4万人，为去年10月以 来最小增幅。有分析称，美国劳动力市场出现"急速刹车"，或引发新一轮衰退担忧。 就业数据公布后，美国利率期货显示美联储下次会议降息的可能性大幅上升。 受此影响，美元指数直线跳水，大跌超1%。美股开盘后，三大指数全线大跌，截至北京时间22:15，纳指大跌超2%，标普500 指数跌1.56%，道指跌1.41%。欧洲股市亦集体重挫，法国CAC40指数大跌近3%，德国DAX指数、欧洲斯托克50指数、意大利 富时MIB指数大跌超2%，英国富时100指数跌超1%。另外，VIX恐慌指数大幅飙涨超22%。 与此同时，美国总统特朗普再次批评美联储主席鲍威尔，并再次呼吁降息。他点评称："太少，太晚。美联储主席鲍威尔'太迟 先生'是个灾难。降息！" 美国就业数据崩了 北京时间8月1日晚间，美国劳工统计局发布了 7月非农就业报告 ，其中显示，美国7月非农就业人数增加7.3万人，大幅低于预 期的10.4万人，为去年10月以来最小增幅，前值为增加14.7万人。 报告显示，美国7月失业率回升至 ...

Core Insights - The British pound has rebounded against the euro due to reduced long positions on the euro by investors [1] - The rebound is influenced by a trade agreement between the US and Europe, which has alleviated concerns about a US economic recession [1] - The overall strength of the dollar has contributed to the decline of the euro, as market fears regarding tariffs impacting the eurozone economy have increased [1] Currency Movements - The British pound fell to a two-month low against the US dollar but rose to a near one-week high against the euro [1] - The euro's decline is attributed to market concerns over tariffs potentially harming the eurozone economy [1] - The report from ING's head of foreign exchange strategy, Chris Turner, highlights the reduction of previously held long positions on the euro by investors as a factor in the pound's rebound [1]

Group 1 - Goldman Sachs reports that global investment, manufacturing employment, spending, and overall economic activity remain robust despite uncertainties and challenges [2] - Global trade remains active, indicating the persistence and importance of international trade, with significant rebounds in stock markets across the Atlantic [2] - Moody's analysis suggests that the outcome of Japan's Senate elections may hinder the government's efforts to advance fiscal consolidation in the post-pandemic era [2] Group 2 - Deutsche Bank strategists warn that if the US confirms tariff increases on August 1 alongside disappointing employment reports, it could trigger renewed recession fears [3] - Concerns over the sustainability of US debt may become a central topic of discussion in the market for the second half of the year, with long-term Treasury yields facing upward pressure [3] - Current 10-year US Treasury yield has risen by 2 basis points to 4.392% [3]

Summary of Key Points from the Conference Call Industry Overview - The macroeconomic environment shows a continuation of previous trends, with the US AI sector maintaining high capital expenditure and fiscal deficits offsetting contractions in other private sectors [12][10] - The US labor market remains robust, with state government employment expanding, contributing to market stability despite recession fears [12][10] - In China, economic policies have not yet gained momentum, with ongoing issues in real estate and infrastructure funding, leading to a persistent decline in second-hand housing prices [12][10] Economic and Market Insights - The US stock market has rebounded to new highs despite concerns over economic weakness [12][10] - China's second-hand housing market is experiencing a monthly decline of 1%, with PPI and CPI remaining negative, indicating ongoing deflationary pressures [12][10] - The overall economic fundamentals and corporate earnings in China are weak, yet the equity market continues to attract capital inflows due to asset scarcity [12][10] Commodity Performance - Commodity prices are showing signs of strength despite weak demand, categorized into three types: 1. Domestic industrial commodities experiencing supply shrinkage near cash cost levels [13] 2. Commodities with significant overseas pricing components, such as non-ferrous metals, benefiting from expectations of fiscal expansion from the US [14] 3. Oil prices rising due to geopolitical tensions in the Middle East [15] Banking Sector Risks - A significant potential risk is emerging from rising bad debts in the banking sector, particularly in long-term loans to residents, which amount to nearly 60 trillion yuan [16] - The bad debt rate for retail loans has accelerated, reaching levels not seen since early 2016, with second-hand housing prices continuing to decline [17] - A 30% decline in the second-hand housing index could lead to increased default probabilities as collateral values drop below loan amounts [17][18] Investment Strategy Adjustments - The current risk-reward profile for holding bank stocks has shifted negatively, leading to a complete reduction of bank stock holdings in Q2 [18] - Future fiscal policies, especially in real estate, are expected to gain traction as bad debt risks materialize [18] - A significant market style shift is anticipated as these risks unfold [19] Investment Plans - **Gold**: The acceleration of stablecoin issuance is reducing gold's allocation in portfolios [20][21] - **Interest Rates**: Reallocation towards medium-term government bond futures as interbank liquidity stabilizes [22] - **Commodities**: Maintaining net long positions in industrial commodities as prices approach cash cost levels [23] - **Equities**: No significant changes in equity positions compared to the previous month [24] Long-term Holdings - 40% of long-term positions are in stocks with favorable characteristics such as low price-to-book ratios and high dividends, including state-owned enterprises in construction and materials [25] - 15%-20% of positions are in stock index futures, providing protection against potential downturns [25]

Group 1: US Economic Overview - The US non-farm payrolls increased by 147,000 in June, exceeding market expectations, while the unemployment rate fell from 4.2% in May to 4.1% in June[6] - The average monthly non-farm payrolls over the past three months rose to 150,000, indicating a steady labor market[6] - The ISM manufacturing PMI rose to 49 in June from 48.5 in May, while the non-manufacturing PMI increased to 50.8, slightly above the market expectation of 50.6[8] Group 2: Inflation and Monetary Policy - As of July 3, the 5-year inflation expectation in the US was 2.37%, up 6 basis points from the previous week, while the 10-year expectation rose to 2.33%, an increase of 4 basis points[13] - Many Federal Reserve officials believe that a rate cut in July may be premature, with expectations leaning towards a potential cut later in the year[23] - The European Central Bank (ECB) will determine future rate cuts based on incoming data, with no commitment to a specific path[24] Group 3: European Economic Indicators - The Eurozone HICP year-on-year growth rate slightly increased from 1.9% in May to 2.0% in June, aligning with market expectations[18] - The core HICP remained stable at 2.3% year-on-year, while the Eurozone PPI year-on-year growth rate fell from 0.7% in April to 0.3% in May[18] - The unemployment rate in the EU27 remained low at 5.9% in May, unchanged from April[18]

Core Viewpoint - Gold has regained the $3300 level, breaking a two-week downtrend, but lacks bullish momentum in the short term [1][3]. Group 1: Market Dynamics - The market is closely monitoring U.S. trade negotiations, with gold (XAU/USD) starting the week on a solid foundation but losing momentum after three consecutive days of gains [2][5]. - A letter from President Trump to Fed Chairman Jerome Powell urging for lower interest rates contributed to the initial strength of gold, but hawkish comments from Powell limited further gains [3][4]. - Employment data released showed a decline of 33,000 in private sector jobs in June, significantly below the expected increase of 95,000, putting pressure on the dollar and allowing gold to rise slightly [3][4]. Group 2: Economic Indicators - The U.S. labor market remains strong, with non-farm payrolls (NFP) increasing by 147,000 in June, surpassing the market expectation of 110,000, leading to a sharp decline in the probability of a rate cut in July [4][5]. - The probability of a 25 basis point rate cut by the Fed dropped from nearly 20% to about 5% following the positive labor market data [4]. Group 3: Technical Analysis - Gold is trading near the lower boundary of a six-month upward return channel at $3300, with the relative strength index (RSI) around 50, indicating a lack of directional momentum [7]. - If gold breaks below $3300, the next support levels are seen at $3285 (23.6% Fibonacci retracement) and $3185 (100-day simple moving average) [7]. - On the upside, static resistance appears at $3370, followed by $3400 and $3455 [7].