Core Viewpoint - The Federal Reserve is signaling a potential interest rate cut due to a weakening labor market and persistent inflation pressures, leading to a consensus in the market for a rate reduction [1][2][3]. Group 1: Economic Indicators - The core PCE inflation rate in June was 2.8%, indicating persistent inflation challenges [1]. - The July non-farm payroll report showed only 73,000 new jobs, significantly below the expected 110,000, with the unemployment rate rising to 4.2% [4]. - Revisions to previous months' job data revealed a total downward adjustment of 258,000 jobs, raising concerns about the labor market's health [4][5]. Group 2: Federal Reserve's Stance - Federal Reserve officials, including Bowman and Waller, have publicly supported a more proactive approach to rate cuts, citing the need to address a weakening job market [2][6]. - The probability of a rate cut in September has surged from 37% to over 75%, with some institutions predicting a cut of up to 50 basis points if unemployment rises [2][6]. Group 3: Market Reactions - The market has shifted from a wait-and-see approach to betting on rate cuts, with a consensus forming around the likelihood of a reduction [3][6]. - Major financial institutions like Goldman Sachs and Citigroup anticipate multiple rate cuts, potentially lowering the federal funds rate to a range of 3% to 3.25% [6]. Group 4: Implications for Domestic Markets - A potential rate cut by the Federal Reserve could provide some monetary policy flexibility for domestic markets, particularly in China, where the current interest rate differential with the U.S. is significant [8][10]. - The anticipated easing of U.S. monetary policy may enhance liquidity in global markets, potentially benefiting domestic capital markets [8][10].

Core Viewpoint - A 30% probability of a U.S. economic recession may seem alarming, but global stock markets remain resilient due to current market momentum, making short-selling appear illogical [1] Group 1 - The market is unable to see far enough into the future, which is why it tends to overlook recession risks [1] - Investors may be ignoring the potential slowdown in the labor market, focusing instead on strong liquidity and structural growth themes such as artificial intelligence and fiscal credit expansion [1]

Group 1 - The U.S. labor market is showing signs of weakness, with July non-farm payrolls significantly below market expectations and downward revisions to May and June data, indicating the economy is on the brink of recession [1][3] - Moody's chief economist Mark Zandi attributes the economic difficulties to increasing tariffs and restrictive immigration policies, which are eroding corporate profits and household purchasing power [3] - Inflation remains above the 2% target, making it challenging for the Federal Reserve to implement interest rate cuts to reverse the economic downturn [3] Group 2 - Major international financial institutions have warned investors to prepare for a decline in U.S. stock prices due to deteriorating economic data [5] - Deutsche Bank analysts indicate that U.S. stocks face short-term downside risks, while Morgan Stanley's Mike Wilson predicts a potential 10% correction in the S&P 500 index this quarter [7] - Evercore ISI analyst Julian Emanuel forecasts a possible 15% drop in the S&P 500 index, reflecting concerns over the impact of tariff policies on consumer wallets and corporate balance sheets [7]

Group 1 - Goldman Sachs issued a warning regarding significant downward revisions to U.S. employment data, with a total adjustment of 258,000 jobs for May and June, marking the largest two-month revision since 1968 outside of recession periods [1] - The downward revisions were evenly distributed between the public and private sectors, indicating a broader impact on the labor market [1] - Goldman Sachs anticipates further downward adjustments, predicting a potential reduction of 550,000 to 950,000 jobs in the upcoming non-farm employment benchmark revision, which could lower monthly job growth estimates for 2024-2025 from 145,000 to a range of 65,000-100,000 [1] Group 2 - Tom Lee from Fundstrat highlighted that the magnitude of the employment data revisions indicates a significant deviation from the Federal Reserve's dual mandate of employment and inflation, suggesting a more severe labor market issue than previously recognized [2] - Lee predicts an imminent shift in Federal Reserve policy, which could lead to higher price-to-earnings ratios as lower interest rates enhance investor interest in risk assets [2] - Following the release of disappointing July non-farm employment data, market expectations for two interest rate cuts by the Federal Reserve by the end of December have intensified [2]

1. Report Industry Investment Rating No information about the industry investment rating is provided in the report. 2. Core Viewpoints - The downward revision of non - farm data from May to June may accelerate the Fed's interest - rate cut rhythm. As of now, the probability of a "compensatory" rate cut by the Fed in September is limited, and the focus is on trading rate cuts rather than recession. The non - farm data may impact the data - based investment research and analysis system, and the value of gold may be further highlighted [1]. - The Fed's action may be too late. After the release of non - farm data, the market's expectation of a 25BP rate cut by the Fed in September soared from 37.66% to 80.31%, and it fully priced in at least one 25BP rate cut by the Fed before October [2]. - Based on current data, it may not be sufficient to drive the Fed to conduct a "compensatory" rate cut. If the labor market deteriorates further in August and inflation rebounds moderately or declines again, the Fed may make a more accommodative monetary policy decision [3]. - The data - based investment research and analysis system will be continuously impacted. In the short term, ADP employment data may serve as a substitute for non - farm data. In the long term, the issue of data credibility may ferment, affecting the pricing of financial assets, while the value of gold may be further emphasized [4]. 3. Summary According to the Table of Contents 3.1 Analyzing the Underlying Logic of the Significant Downward Revision of Non - farm Data - **July Non - farm Data**: In July, the US added 73,000 non - farm jobs, lower than market expectations. The unemployment rate rose to 4.2%, indicating a marginal cooling of the labor market but still with some resilience [11]. - **Downward Revision of May - June Non - farm Data**: The total non - farm employment in May and June was revised down by 258,000. The adjustment rates in May and June reached 86.33% and 90.48% respectively, the largest since 2021. Both the private and government sectors showed a general decline [14][15]. - **Impact on the Fed's Decision - making**: From May to July, the average monthly increase in non - farm employment was only about 35,000. If the Fed had seen the revised data before the meeting, more officials might have supported a rate cut in July. After the data release, the market's expectation of a Fed rate cut increased significantly [21]. - **"Compensatory" Rate Cut**: The current situation is similar to that in the third quarter of 2024 in that the weakening labor market boosts rate - cut expectations. However, the current inflation environment may restrict the Fed's rate - cut decision. As of now, it may not be enough to trigger a "compensatory" rate cut, but there is a potential path [25][27]. - **Trading Focus**: After the non - farm data release, the stock market adjusted significantly. The US economy shows a marginal weakening of growth momentum rather than an impending recession [31][35]. - **Impact on the Investment Research System**: In the short term, ADP employment data may gain more attention. In the long term, the credibility of non - farm data may be questioned, adding uncertainty to the financial market, while the value of gold may increase [35][37].

Group 1 - Trump indicated that Vice President Vance is the "most likely" successor for the 2028 Republican presidential candidate [1][2] - Trump suggested a potential ticket pairing of Vance and Secretary of State Rubio for future elections [2] - Moody's chief economist warned that recent indicators show the US economy is on the "edge of recession," with a weakening labor market and shrinking construction and manufacturing sectors [2] Group 2 - Multiple international financial institutions warned that investors should prepare for a decline in US stock prices due to high valuations and deteriorating economic data [2] - Deutsche Bank analysts noted that the US stock market faces short-term downside risks [3] - Morgan Stanley's analyst projected that the S&P 500 index could correct by up to 10% this quarter due to the impact of US tariff policies [3]

"两位优秀的凯文" 特朗普在采访中透露，财政部长贝森特（Scott Bessent）已主动表示无意接任美联储主席，因此被剔除 出候选名单。他特别提及前美联储理事凯文·沃什（Kevin Warsh）与前国家经济委员会主任凯文·哈塞特 （Kevin Hassett）为"两位优秀的凯文"，但未透露其余两名人选。 特朗普再次批评鲍威尔"降息过慢"，未能在通胀回落初期及时放松政策，导致财政融资成本升高、经济 扩张受限。他强调，新任联储主席应更具实务导向，而非"墨守成规"。 外界普遍认为，特朗普对美联储人事的提前干预，反映其试图重塑货币政策路线的意图。 50基点窗口打开 据央视新闻报道，当地时间8月5日，美国总统特朗普表示，可能很快宣布美联储新任主席，美联储理事 的人选决定将于本周末做出。 美国总统特朗普在接受美国消费者新闻与商业频道（CNBC）采访时表示，他已将潜在的未来美联储主 席范围缩小到四名候选人，该名单不包括财政部长斯科特·贝森特。 在市场对9月降息押注迅速升温之际，特朗普此番人事信号被视为美联储主席鲍威尔的利率政策不满的 延续，并可能对美联储的政策独立性构成进一步挑战。 上周公布的7月非农就业新增仅7.3万人 ...

2025.08.06 本文字数：1086，阅读时长大约2分钟 作者 |第一财经 胡弋杰 据央视新闻报道，当地时间8月5日，美国总统特朗普表示，可能很快宣布美联储新任主席，美联储理事 的人选决定将于本周末做出。 美国总统特朗普在接受美国消费者新闻与商业频道（CNBC）采访时表示，他已将潜在的未来美联储主 席范围缩小到四名候选人，该名单不包括财政部长斯科特·贝森特。 在市场对9月降息押注迅速升温之际，特朗普此番人事信号被视为美联储主席鲍威尔的利率政策不满的 延续，并可能对美联储的政策独立性构成进一步挑战。 上周公布的7月非农就业新增仅7.3万人，远逊市场预期；5月和6月的前值合计被向下修正26万人，为劳 动力市场迅速降温提供佐证。芝加哥商品交易所（CME）的美联储观察工具显示，9月降息25个基点的 概率已升至89%。 高盛与花旗均警告，若8月就业继续疲软，美联储或存在"一步到位"下调50个基点的可能。 "两位优秀的凯文" 特朗普在采访中透露，财政部长贝森特（Scott Bessent）已主动表示无意接任美联储主席，因此被剔除 出候选名单。他特别提及前美联储理事凯文·沃什（Kevin Warsh）与前国家经济委员会 ...

在美联储副主席米歇尔·鲍曼和理事克里斯托弗·沃勒上周主张降息25个基点后，越来越多的"鸽声"开始出现。 据证券时报报道，当地时间8月4日，旧金山联储主席戴利表示，越来越多的迹象表明美国就业市场正在走软，并且没有证据表明关税引发的价 格上涨正在广泛渗透到通胀数据中，降息的时机正逐渐临近。 在9月货币政策会议之前，仍会有一些关键数据发布，包括劳动力市场和通胀报告，戴利对未来货币政策持开放态度。"如果通胀重新上行并产 生溢出效应，或者劳动力市场反弹，今年降息可能少于两次。" "但我认为更可能的情况是，美联储今年可能需要降息两次以上。"戴利强调，如果劳动力市场明显走弱，而美联储又未看到通胀的溢出效应， 那应该准备降息更多。 在美联储嘹亮的"鸽声"下，CME美联储观察工具显示，市场目前预计美联储9月降息的概率已逼近100%，几乎"板上钉钉"。 图片来源：新华社 美联储为何"鸽声"嘹亮？ 近期美联储降息预期迅速升温，如果接下来的经济数据没有太大意外，美联储9月降息是大概率事件。 中航证券首席经济学家董忠云对21世纪经济报道记者表示，近期，市场对美联储在9月议息会议上降息的预期显著升温，其直接触发因素可归 结为两条主线。 ...

美国总统特朗普在接受美国消费者新闻与商业频道（CNBC）采访时表示，他已将潜在的未来美联储主 席范围缩小到四名候选人，该名单不包括财政部长斯科特·贝森特。 在市场对9月降息押注迅速升温之际，特朗普此番人事信号被视为美联储主席鲍威尔的利率政策不满的 延续，并可能对美联储的政策独立性构成进一步挑战。 上周公布的7月非农就业新增仅7.3万人，远逊市场预期；5月和6月的前值合计被向下修正26万人，为劳 动力市场迅速降温提供佐证。芝加哥商品交易所（CME）的美联储观察工具显示，9月降息25个基点的 概率已升至89%。 高盛与花旗均警告，若8月就业继续疲软，美联储或存在"一步到位"下调50个基点的可能。 高盛、花旗等机构首次将一次性下调50个基点列入备选剧本。 据央视新闻报道，当地时间8月5日，美国总统特朗普表示，可能很快宣布美联储新任主席，美联储理事 的人选决定将于本周末做出。 特朗普再次批评鲍威尔"降息过慢"，未能在通胀回落初期及时放松政策，导致财政融资成本升高、经济 扩张受限。他强调，新任联储主席应更具实务导向，而非"墨守成规"。 外界普遍认为，特朗普对美联储人事的提前干预，反映其试图重塑货币政策路线的意图。 50 ...